1) A changing climate is leading to more extreme weather events like hot days and heavy precipitation. 2) This poses new challenges for disaster risk reduction that require adaptive approaches over longer time horizons. 3) Risk and vulnerability assessments need to account for dynamic exposure and evolving vulnerabilities under climate change.

1. Global Risk Forum Davos 2012
Adaptive Disaster Risk Reduction
PD. Dr.-Ing Joern Birkmann
Head of Section, UNU-EHS
Bonn, Germany

2. A changing climate leads to changes in extreme
weather and climate events
2

3. Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy
precipitation have become more common
There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these
extremes 3

4. New challenges for DRR
 Need for adaptive DRR and adjustments of
international response
◯ Increase planning horizon and work
with multi-hazard approach
◯ Improve the consideration of future CC-
hazards into response & reconstruction
◯ Rethink: time and spatial scales of
DRR
◯ Evaluate the adaptiveness of DRR
measures (e.g. EW, evacuation
concepts etc.)

5. Humanitarian aid & DRR
 Revisit existing norms and management
approaches in times of crises and disasters
 Strengthen the focus on how disasters
might also function as a catalyst for
change and resilience building
 Evaluate the adaptiveness of DRR measures (e.g. EW,
evacuation concepts etc.)
 Improve the link between crises management, rehabilitation
and climate resilient development
 More strategic evaluation, e.g. establishment of DRR-
CCA checklist
 Potential to extend standards, e.g. SPHERE, to
coordinate action of climate change and development
stakeholders?
 Incorporate DRR and CCA in bilateral agreements

6. Analysis of tools - priorities
Key thematic areas Selected priority tools
(based on HFA & Cardona et al.
based on expert inteviews
2005)
Identification and
Risk and vulnerability assessment
understanding of risk
Reduction of underlying risk
Planning and social development
factors
Disaster preparedness and
Early warning systems (EWS)
emergency management
National policy and legal frameworks
Institutional capacities and
and financial mechanisms
financial mechanisms

7. Adapting DRR tools
Risk and vulnerability Assessment
• Resolution of CC projections
• Accounting for different and dynamic exposure
•Scenarios of vulnerability
•Coping and adaptation capacities.
• Timescales
•Creeping changes

8. Increasing exposure of people and assets has
been the major cause of changes in disaster
losses
(IPCC 2012)
Specific types of urban development and rural-urban migration might
increase the exposure of people to floods (example Mekong Delta VN)
(Photo: Krause 2012)
8

9. Challenges for Adaptation and DRR
(Photos: Birkmann 2011; Map Source: Garschagen et al. 2012)
The main challenge for local adaptation to climate extremes is to apply a
balanced portfolio of approaches as a one-size-fits all strategy may prove
limiting for some places and stakeholders. (IPCC 2012, p. 295)
While structural measures provide some protection from disasters, they
may also create a false sense of safety. (IPCC 2012, p. 293)
Conflicts between governmental and non-governmental strategies and
norms can generate additional vulnerabilities. (IPCC 2012, p. 86)

10. Conclusions
• We observe an emerging cooperation between Disaster Risk Reduction
and Climate Change Adaptation research (IPCC SREX). This
cooperation has also to be strengthened in various countries, e.g.
between different ministries (MoNRE – MARD).
• Exposure and vulnerability are dynamic. Hence we need also to develop
different scenarios for vulnerability and risks (in addition to climate
change scenarios).
• Vulnerability and risk assessment as well as adaptation strategies need
to combine different data and knowledge sources as well as
methodologies.
• Lastly, we have to critically review DRR measures that worked in the
past (e.g. dyke construction), but might not work in the future.

11. PD Dr. Joern Birkmann
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0208
Fax: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299
E-Mail: birkmann@ehs.unu.edu 11