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Edwin H. Sutanudjajaa, Rens van Beeka, Karen G.
Villholthb, Aditya Soodc, Tingju Zhud
a Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht Univ., The Netherlands
b IWMI, South Africa
c IWMI, Sri Lanka
d IFPRI, Washington DC
Progress and challenges in modelling global
groundwater depletion - experience with
PCR-GLOBWB
25th May, 2015
1. How are constraints in groundwater
availability and access influencing global
groundwater depletion?
2. How is groundwater depletion
influencing global food production?
3. How can better groundwater
management improve food security?
Objective/Research questions
Groundwater depletion occurs when the rate of groundwater
abstraction is greater than the rate of replenishment
Groundwater depletion: What is it?
S
R
D
Natural conditions
Averaged over long term,
R=D and S is constant
S
R
D
Stable groundwater
pumping
Qnet is equivalent to
reduction in D and S
Qnet
S
R
D
Unsustainable
condition
Qnet is greater than R, D
reduces to 0 and S
decreases continuosly
Qnet
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
Mm3//year
Total groundwater depletion
Source: Wada et al., 2012
Results from the PCR-GLOBWB model
Depletion = Abstraction - Recharge
Source:
Shah et al., 2007
Groundwaterwithdrawal(cubickmperyear)
in selected countries
at global scale
Production
Of Total
(Rainfed &
Irrigated)
Of Irrigated
Of Irrigated by
Groundwater
From GW abstraction 13.3% 44.4%
From GW depletion 4.3% 14.5% 32.6%
CROP PRODUCTION FROM GROUNDWATER
AND GROUNDWATER DEPLETION
Results from Phase I of our work
PCR-GLOBWB model
(Wada et al., 2012)
1. Non-renewable GW is implicitly assumed
to be unlimited (same as in IGHM)
2. GW pumping is not constrained by socio-
economic and technical factors.
Shortcomings of PCR-GLOBWB model
1st constraint: Aquifer volume
Estimate of aquifer thickness at 30 arc-min resolution
2nd constraint: Pumping capacity
Regional-scale groundwater abstraction limit (109 m3/yr) for 2005
From IMPACT
2nd constraint: Pumping capacity
Global groundwater abstraction limit for the period 1960-2015
River flow stations for calibration and validation
Locations of GRDC discharge stations used in this study. Black dots represent stations
selected for calibration and yellow dots represent stations selected for validation.
Recursive filter method by Nathan and McMahon (1990):
qd = β qd-1+ (1+ β) (Qd - Qd-1)/2 separated surface flow
qb = Qd - qd separated baseflow
Baseflow separation
Calibration parameters
fD: Pre-factor for degree day factor
fW: Pre-factor for soil water capacities
fK: Pre-factor for upper soil sat. hydraulic conductivity
fJ: Pre-factor for groundwater recession coefficient
Calibration against total flows (Orinoco)
Improvement observed
Results:
Calibration against total flows (Congo)
No improvement observed
Results: Calibration against total flows (Congo)
Calibration against baseflows (Orinoco)
Improvement observed
Results:
Calibration against baseflows (Ob)
No improvement observed
Results:
1. Run without constraints
2. Run with limited non-renewable GW
3. Run with limited non-renewable GW
and limited pumping capacity
4. Run 3., but calibrating parameters
Approach to simulations
Run 1Results:
km3year−1
Total depletion: 375 km3 yr-1
2001-2008
Adding constraintsResults:
km3year−1
Run 1 Run 2
Run 3
Total depletion: 285 km3 yr-1
2001-2008
Total depletion: 375 km3 yr-1
2001-2008
Total depletion: 146 km3 yr-1
2001-2008
Run 4
(Calib)
Total depletion: 183 km3 yr-1
2001-2008
Global Groundwater Scenarios
Starting Point: IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Managed Aquifer
Recharge (MAR)
Implemented in scenarios emphasizing
sustainability/adaptation
Pumping control
Implemented in scenarios emphasizing
sustainability/mitigation
New GW development
Implemented to various degree, dep. on scenario
Trade/virtual water
Implemented in scenarios with good
global/international institutions
Water productivity Improved in scenarios emphasizing
sustainability/mitigation
Issues/Interventions considered
SSP5
 Pumping in depleted regions is not controlled
 MAR/UTFI is implemented on a large scale,
mostly to control extreme flooding
 Balanced new GW dev. in potential regions to
adapt to CC
 Trade/virtuous virtual water flows
constrained by dominant economic
development imperatives
 Water productivity from GW (and SW) not
improved
SSP3 (worst case)
 Pumping in depleted regions is not controlled
 MAR is not practised
 Unbalanced new GW dev. in potential regions
 Trade/virtuous virtual water flows
constrained by dominant self-sufficiency
strategies
 Water productivity from GW (and SW) not
improved
SSP1
 Pumping in depleted regions is controlled
through regulations and incentive-based
methods
 MAR is implemented on a large scale
 Balanced new GW dev. in potential regions
 Trade is deliberately used to control GW
depletion (virtuous virtual water flows)
 Water productivity from GW (and SW)
improved
SSP4
 Pumping in depleted regions is controlled
through effective energy policies
 MAR is not implemented
 Unbalanced/unequal new GW dev. in
potential regions, e.g. for biofuels
 Trade is deliberately used to control GW
depletion (virtuous virtual water flows), but
not benefitting the smallholders
 Water productivity from GW (and SW)
improved to save energy in commercial
farming
Scenario Storyline
1. Availability and access constraints to GW are critical to
consider in future food security scenarios
2. Adding constraints and calibration improved the model’s
handling of groundwater.
3. This compares well to previous estimates (145+/-39 km3
yr-1, Konikow (2011)).
4. Once included in IMPACT, global scenarios for different
SSPs will be created and analyzed
5. Focus on country and regional level studies.
Conclusions
THANK YOU !!

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2.1 iwmi aditya rome-gw_study_presentation

  • 1. Edwin H. Sutanudjajaa, Rens van Beeka, Karen G. Villholthb, Aditya Soodc, Tingju Zhud a Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht Univ., The Netherlands b IWMI, South Africa c IWMI, Sri Lanka d IFPRI, Washington DC Progress and challenges in modelling global groundwater depletion - experience with PCR-GLOBWB 25th May, 2015
  • 2. 1. How are constraints in groundwater availability and access influencing global groundwater depletion? 2. How is groundwater depletion influencing global food production? 3. How can better groundwater management improve food security? Objective/Research questions
  • 3. Groundwater depletion occurs when the rate of groundwater abstraction is greater than the rate of replenishment Groundwater depletion: What is it? S R D Natural conditions Averaged over long term, R=D and S is constant S R D Stable groundwater pumping Qnet is equivalent to reduction in D and S Qnet S R D Unsustainable condition Qnet is greater than R, D reduces to 0 and S decreases continuosly Qnet
  • 4. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 Mm3//year Total groundwater depletion Source: Wada et al., 2012 Results from the PCR-GLOBWB model Depletion = Abstraction - Recharge Source: Shah et al., 2007 Groundwaterwithdrawal(cubickmperyear) in selected countries at global scale
  • 5. Production Of Total (Rainfed & Irrigated) Of Irrigated Of Irrigated by Groundwater From GW abstraction 13.3% 44.4% From GW depletion 4.3% 14.5% 32.6% CROP PRODUCTION FROM GROUNDWATER AND GROUNDWATER DEPLETION Results from Phase I of our work
  • 7. 1. Non-renewable GW is implicitly assumed to be unlimited (same as in IGHM) 2. GW pumping is not constrained by socio- economic and technical factors. Shortcomings of PCR-GLOBWB model
  • 8. 1st constraint: Aquifer volume Estimate of aquifer thickness at 30 arc-min resolution
  • 9. 2nd constraint: Pumping capacity Regional-scale groundwater abstraction limit (109 m3/yr) for 2005 From IMPACT
  • 10. 2nd constraint: Pumping capacity Global groundwater abstraction limit for the period 1960-2015
  • 11. River flow stations for calibration and validation Locations of GRDC discharge stations used in this study. Black dots represent stations selected for calibration and yellow dots represent stations selected for validation.
  • 12. Recursive filter method by Nathan and McMahon (1990): qd = β qd-1+ (1+ β) (Qd - Qd-1)/2 separated surface flow qb = Qd - qd separated baseflow Baseflow separation Calibration parameters fD: Pre-factor for degree day factor fW: Pre-factor for soil water capacities fK: Pre-factor for upper soil sat. hydraulic conductivity fJ: Pre-factor for groundwater recession coefficient
  • 13. Calibration against total flows (Orinoco) Improvement observed Results:
  • 14. Calibration against total flows (Congo) No improvement observed Results: Calibration against total flows (Congo)
  • 15. Calibration against baseflows (Orinoco) Improvement observed Results:
  • 16. Calibration against baseflows (Ob) No improvement observed Results:
  • 17. 1. Run without constraints 2. Run with limited non-renewable GW 3. Run with limited non-renewable GW and limited pumping capacity 4. Run 3., but calibrating parameters Approach to simulations
  • 19. Adding constraintsResults: km3year−1 Run 1 Run 2 Run 3 Total depletion: 285 km3 yr-1 2001-2008 Total depletion: 375 km3 yr-1 2001-2008 Total depletion: 146 km3 yr-1 2001-2008 Run 4 (Calib) Total depletion: 183 km3 yr-1 2001-2008
  • 20. Global Groundwater Scenarios Starting Point: IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
  • 21. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) Implemented in scenarios emphasizing sustainability/adaptation Pumping control Implemented in scenarios emphasizing sustainability/mitigation New GW development Implemented to various degree, dep. on scenario Trade/virtual water Implemented in scenarios with good global/international institutions Water productivity Improved in scenarios emphasizing sustainability/mitigation Issues/Interventions considered
  • 22. SSP5  Pumping in depleted regions is not controlled  MAR/UTFI is implemented on a large scale, mostly to control extreme flooding  Balanced new GW dev. in potential regions to adapt to CC  Trade/virtuous virtual water flows constrained by dominant economic development imperatives  Water productivity from GW (and SW) not improved SSP3 (worst case)  Pumping in depleted regions is not controlled  MAR is not practised  Unbalanced new GW dev. in potential regions  Trade/virtuous virtual water flows constrained by dominant self-sufficiency strategies  Water productivity from GW (and SW) not improved SSP1  Pumping in depleted regions is controlled through regulations and incentive-based methods  MAR is implemented on a large scale  Balanced new GW dev. in potential regions  Trade is deliberately used to control GW depletion (virtuous virtual water flows)  Water productivity from GW (and SW) improved SSP4  Pumping in depleted regions is controlled through effective energy policies  MAR is not implemented  Unbalanced/unequal new GW dev. in potential regions, e.g. for biofuels  Trade is deliberately used to control GW depletion (virtuous virtual water flows), but not benefitting the smallholders  Water productivity from GW (and SW) improved to save energy in commercial farming Scenario Storyline
  • 23. 1. Availability and access constraints to GW are critical to consider in future food security scenarios 2. Adding constraints and calibration improved the model’s handling of groundwater. 3. This compares well to previous estimates (145+/-39 km3 yr-1, Konikow (2011)). 4. Once included in IMPACT, global scenarios for different SSPs will be created and analyzed 5. Focus on country and regional level studies. Conclusions