Presentation by Albrecht Weerts (Deltares) at the wflow User Day 2018, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. Friday 09 November 2018, Delft.

1. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e
Climate Change
C3S422Lot1WEnR – Global Agriculture

2. Climate
Change
21 November 2018
I m a g i n e t h e r i s k s …

3. Climate
Change
… . o f w a t e r s h o r t a g e
21 november 2018
‘Water is the most important ingredient of our products
and essential for our operations.’
Source: gardian.co.uk

4. Climate
Change
21 November 2018
I m a g i n e f u t u r e c h a n g e …
From Ward et al. 2010, Env. Res. Lett. 5, 044011:
Costs of climate change
adaptation

5. Climate
Change
W a t e r i n S D G s

6. Climate
Change • Water is important for agriculture
• Use hydrological models to derive ECVs and impact indicators
– PCRGLOBWB (UU) => ECVs & Indicators at ~10km
• Takes into account water demand and groundwater
– wflow_sbm (Deltares) => ECVs at ~1km scale (between 60N-40S)
R a t i o n a l e
Schematic PCRGLOBWB model (Utrecht University)
(van Beek/Bierkens, 2009)

7. Climate
Change • ECVs:
– River discharge, actual evapotranspiration, surface soil moisture,
groundwater recharge
• Impact Indicators:
– River discharge anomaly, soil moisture deficit index, evapotranspiration
deficit Index, groundwater table declining trend
E C V s & I m p a c t I n d i c a t o r s

8. Climate
Change
W a t e r i n G l o b a l a g r i c u l t u r e – h i s t . , N R T & f o r e c a s t e d
resolution E2O forcing
(0.25x0.25)
ERA5L forcing
(0.1x0.1)
ERA5L
Initialization
(0.1x0.1)
ECMWF S5
seasonal
forecasts
(1.0x1.0)
Due date
Tier 1 -
PCRGLOBWB
0.083 X 15-10-2018
Tier 2 –
PCRGLOBWB
0.0833 X February 2019
(expected medio
November 2018)
Tier 3 – wflow_sbm
(between 60N-40S)
0.00833 X February 2019
Tier 4 -
PCRGLOBWB
0.0833 X X February 2019

9. Climate
Change
W a t e r i n G l o b a l a g r i c u l t u r e – c l i m a t e s c a l e
resolution ISIMIP forcing
(0.25x0.25)
ISIMIP scenario
RCPP8.5
Due date
Tier 1 - PCRGLOBWB 0.083 X 31-10-2018
Tier 2 – PCRGLOBWB 0.0833 X February 2019

10. Climate
Change
C o u p l i n g t o a g r o u n d w a t e r m o d e l ( M O D F L O W )
- PCR-GLOBWB does not calculate groundwater heads and dynamics. We used a Global MODFLOW model to calculate heads.
- Input to MODFLOW: discharge/surface water levels, groundwater recharge & abstraction
- Still offline coupling. Monthly time step. Two layers in the MODFLOW model:
- Top layer: influenced by surface water levels and groundwater recharge
- Bottom layer: origin of groundwater abstraction
MODFLOW layers
(Sgw)
S1 & S2 of PCR-
GLOBWB
surface water level, recharge & abstraction
21 november 2018

11. Climate
Change
a n i n v i s i b l e b u t i n d i s p e n s a b l e r e s o u r c e
•Worldwide, 2.5 billion people depend solely
on groundwater resources to satisfy their
basic daily water needs (UNESCO, 2012).
Utrecht University
Groundwater = drinking water
to at least 50% of the global
population (FAO, 2010).

12. Climate
Change
a n i n v i s i b l e b u t i n d i s p e n s a b l e r e s o u r c e
•Groundwater covers 40% of industrial
needs at world level
Groundwater covers 20% of
agricultural needs at world level
Utrecht University
Source: UN-IGRAGC
Source: UN-IGRAGC

13. Climate
Change
21 November 2018
G r o u n d w a t e r t a b l e d e c l i n i n g t r e n d ( G T D T )

14. Climate
Change
E x a m p l e a p p l i c a t i o n
Global scale indicators of groundwater related risks and sustainable
groundwater use under current and past climate and socio-economic
conditions (to be presented online on WRI’s Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas).

15. Climate
Change
Seasonal forecasting: water shortage?
Example of how seasonal water
shortage forecasting may be
visualised
E x a m p l e a p p l i c a t i o n

16. Climate
Change
Early warnings of a water
crisis in South Africa
Drought in Madagascar

17. Climate
Change
P C R G L O B - W B i n w f l o w
• Hydrological modelling concept pcrglob-wb added to wflow
• https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model (01-01-2016)
• Different pcrglob-wb modules changed as little as possible:
• landSurface, landCover, groundwater, routing etc.
• and thus nested objects: self.landSurface.storUpp000005_forest
• ini file:
• wflow and pcrglob-wb merged (many options in pcrglob-wb!)
• cold or warm states (*.map) provided in ini file
• Meteo (forcing) should be the same as wflow model grid
21 november 2018

18. Climate
Change
P C R G L O B - W B i n w f l o w

19. Climate
Change • Lots of useful data is being produced for water & agricultural assessment
studies worldwide
• Data will be available around March 2019
• Data will be published on the climate data store
(https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu)
wflow_pcrglobwb:
• 53 clones available (setup is available)
• Not yet sure about license of the parameters maps (tbc)
• If possible we will make the clones/wflow setup available
• Contact: Albrecht Weerts
(albrecht.weerts@deltares.nl, +31620332696)
P C R G L O B - W B i n w f l o w