The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

1. Global Futures and Strategic
Foresight @ ICRISAT
Progress update of 2015 deliverables
S Nedumaran
Research Program – Markets, Institutions ad Policies
ICRISAT | India
26 May 2015

2.  ICRISAT is one among 5 CG center
started GFP
 Multidisciplinary team created
and institutionalized (14 member
team)
 Supporting priority setting,
foresight and scenarios analysis
for CRP DC and GL
 Collaboration with other CRPs and
Global Projects like AgMIP (data
sharing, model enhancement,
capacity building)
Global Futures and Strategic
Foresight @ ICRISAT
Multi-disciplinary team @ ICRISAT

3. Achievements in GFSF @ ICRISAT
 Crop model improvement completed – Sorghum, Groundnut and
Chickpeas
 Abiotic stress tolerant virtual cultivars evaluated for Sorghum and
Groundnuts
 Technology reports for ICRISAT mandate crops
 Contributed to CRP GL and DC priority setting and justifying country
focus
 Contributed subnational level data for SPAM model improvement
Capacity building:
 1 training program on foresight model and its application for ESA
economists
 1 DSSAT crop model training conducted for CG and NARS partners

4. Publications:
• 5 Journal articles (ISI journal)
• 1 Book Chapter
• 3 ICRISAT working/discussion paper
Data/tools management
• Populating the Dataverse with socio-economic
and experimental data -
http://dataverse.icrisat.org/
• Spatial Tool: http://spatial-tools.icrisat.ac.in/

5. Update on Progress in 2015
deliverables

6. Millets disaggregation IMPACT
 SPAM (2005) used to estimate the production share of
pearl millets and small millets (other millets)
 Validating the production shares – with national statistics
and experts knowledge

7. Modification of the CERES-Pearl millet
model
Model deficiencies in the default version:
Did not simulate heat tolerance of pearl millet,
i.e., changes in seed set at high temperatures
Underestimated yields at low plant density or
wider row-spacing
Underestimated leaf area index of tillers
Overestimated yield loss when drought stressed
during panicle initiation to flowering or during
flowering to seed-filling stages
Overestimated harvest index under extended
day length conditions

8. Relationship of seed set with mean air
temperature in pearl millet
Source: Gupta et al. (2015)

9. Code and parameter changes in the model
 All relationships determining heat tolerance in millet incorporated
 Model code changed for better estimation of light extinction
coefficient (LIFAC) to improve model response to plant population
and row spacing
 An additional genetic coefficient (GT) was added and other related
changes made to improve LAI response of tillers
 Effect of water stress on daily panicle growth (GROPAN) and panicle
weight (PANWT) reduced by excluding TURFAC (turgor factor) in the
GROPAN equation
 Effect of day-length on harvest index still needs to be attempted
 Collaborating with CRP DC in conducting field experiments
 Collaborate with UF and DSSAT foundation (USAID-ICRISAT Linkage fund)

10. Simulated number of seeds/plant with increasing
mean temperature

11. Simulated number of grain yield with increasing
mean temperature

12. Spatial crop modeling – Case
Studies
Case study:1 – Groundnut, India
 Used well calibrated groundnut cultivars
 Sowing window, fertilizer inputs across
location using experts opinion
 Needs to develop better soil profile raster
for improving the simulations

13. Spatial Groundnut yield South Asia (Kg/ha)
Base climate
GFDL MIROC

14. Groundnut yield masked
to crop area
 Remote sensing data was used to
develop the crop area extends
 Clip the yields to that pixel
 Crop extend maps can be used to
update the SPAM maps

15. Work in progress in spatial crop
modeling in 2015
Crop type masking for all ICRISAT mandate crops for
South Asia was completed (Gumma et al.,)
Integrated assessment of climate change impacts and
various NRM interventions will be studied for South Asia
for groundnut and chickpea
Improvements in the global-scale crop modeling
simulations by providing better inputs –case study
groundnut (sowing window/soil etc.,)

16. Estimating total welfare benefits (direct and spillover)
using Single-multi market Economic surplus model
To assess the spillover potential of technologies to
inform decision making
Research domains for 5 ICRISAT mandate crops completed
Modified version of excel based ACIAR spillover model was
developed
Estimation of welfare benefits for 5 crops completed
A proposal was submitted to CABI to publish a edited book
Title: DECISION SUPPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH: Linking Impact and Spillover
Assessments to Priority Setting

17. Global Millet Research Domains
Nedumaran et al., 2013

18. Welfare benefits for Millets – Real world vs
Ideal world (US$ M)
776.3 Million
IRR – 17.7%
Nedumaran et al., 2013

19. Integrating gender and nutrition in
foresight modeling
Identification and compilation of database from various sources -
national, sub-national, micro-level
1. BMI - percentage of population by gender, rural & urban level, age cohort for Southeast Asia and African
regions
2. Nutritional status of children 0-5 years for Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Northern Africa and Western
Asia regions
3. % of children malnourished - who are exclusively breastfed, breastfed with complementary food, still
breastfeeding, at country level
4. % of population below international poverty line of US$1.25 per day, % of central government expenditure
(1997–2006*) allocated to health and education (India)
5. Data on women education, contraceptive prevalence and Antenatal care, delivery care coverage , maternal
mortality ratio from 2000-2007 (India)
6. % of children underweight by gender, rural ,urban and income level for all regions of the world. (Source:
UNICEF)
7. NFHS and NSSO – India
8. DHS – Global download and compilation in progress
9. Data on sanitation indicators

20. 2. Next step - Developing an index
Developing a composite index to be used in the foresight model
• Computing WEAI – for 3 states in India
• Developing a index for nutritional status for boys, girls, men and women
• Linking Sanitation indicators to nutrition status – micro level, national level
(India and Bangladesh)
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Mahbubnagar Akola Solapur
Percentageofchildrenunderfiveyearsofage
Nutritional status of children under five years of age using
Height for age (stunting) indicator, 2013-2014
Severe Stunting (< median -3SD)
Moderate Stunting (< median -2SD to >= median -3SD)
Normal (>= median -2SD)

21.  DSSAT training – Completed (March, 2015)
 Gridded spatial crop model training (Jan 2015 and follow up April 2015)
 Spatial Tool: http://spatial-tools.icrisat.ac.in/
 Publication:
 1 Journal article published in 2015 (ISI journal)
 2 working paper (under review)
Capacity Building, data tools and
Publication

22. Thank you!
ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium