This document outlines a projection model for the global fish supply and demand to the year 2050. The model uses climate, hydrology, crop, and economic trend data across 159 regions to project production and consumption for 16 fish species categories. The fish projection model balances supply and demand at both the global and country levels, taking into account factors like net imports, feed conversion ratios, and the use of fish for feed versus food. The model will analyze pathway options and scenarios to provide implications for investments, aquaculture development, and environmental management through 2050.

1. FISH TO 2050 PROJECTION
WorldFish/IFPRI
1

2. Global AQ production
2

3. Macroeconomic
Trends
Bias Corrected
Climate Models
(ISI-MIP)
Hydrology
Model (GHM)
IMPACT Food
and Livestock
Model
Water Basin
Management
Model (WBMM)
Water Allocation
and Stress
Model (WASM)
IMPACT Food
and Livestock
Model
Crop Models
(DSSAT)
Water Demand
Trends
IMPACT Model System

4. Fish into IMPACT
Capture Fisheries Agriculture
Demand for Milk, Meat &Fish
Aquaculture Livestock
Protein MealFishmeal
Processing Waste

5. Fish Model Structure:
Commodity Aggregations: Supply and Demand
Production Aggregation Consumption Aggregation
Shrimp and Prawns Shrimp and Prawns
Other Crustaceans Other Crustaceans
Mollusks and other Aquatic Invertebrates and Animals Mollusks and other Aquatic Invertebrates and Animals
Salmon, Trout and other Salmonoids Salmon, Trout and other Salmonoids
Tuna Tuna
Tilapia and other Cichlids Freshwater and other Diadromous Fish
Pangasius and other Catfish
Major Carp and Milkfish
Eels and Sturgeon
Silver, Bighead and Grass Carp
Other Freshwater and Diadromous Fish
Mullet Demersal Fish
Demersal Fish
Other Marine Fish Other Marine Fish
Cobia and Swordfish Other Pelagic Fish
Other Pelagic Fish

6. Production
(Aquaculture , Capture)
Demand
(Food, Feed, Crush, Other)
+ Net Imports =
CrushRatios
FeedConversionRatios
FishFishMeal&Oil
ΣGlobal Net Imports = 0
Global-Level Trade Balance
Country-Level Supply and Demand Balance
Demand Production
(Whole Fish, Waste)
+ Net Exports =
ΣGlobal Net Exports = 0
Global-Level Trade Balance
Country-Level Supply and Demand Balance

7. And if I haven’t lost you by now…
Page 7
… remember that this same balancing needs to be done
for each of the 16 fish species in each of the 159 regions
(up from 115 previously)

8. Dataset I. Dataset II.
Dataset III.
Dataset Followed Strictly Dataset Followed As Closely As Possible
Dataset Followed As Closely As Possible
Expert Estimate
Calculated by Authors
From Literature
Based on Peru
Unknown

9. Schematic plan of Fish to 2050 report
9
Pathway
Options
Inputs/Outputs
Defined for
Scenarios &
Pathways
Implications
for investment
& aquaculture
development
and
environment
management
FISH INTO IMPACT
MODEL
Aquaculture System
Characterization and
analysis with LCA
Scenario
Development
Scenarios
Fish
Projections
Fish supply &
Demand to 2050
Systems
characterized
LCA results

10. The four LCA phases as outlined by ISO
10

11. Example of LCA results…