The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

1. CIFOR, Oil Palm and GFSF
Ahmad Dermawan
CIFOR
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting
Rome, Italy | May 25-28, 2015

2. CIFOR and foresight
• Scenario development and analysis
• Local to national scales
• More qualitative exercises

4. Integrated land
use planning

5. Designing strategies to
improve small scale
operators

6. Formulating smallholder
tree planting policies

7. A tool for community-based
forest management

8. Aspirations
• Future works:
– Moving towards a combination of quantitative
and qualitative scenario analysis
– Forest-agriculture interface, land use
– Focus on key commodities: timber, oil palm,
rubber
– From national to global level
– Make a better use of the data
• Foresight as an evaluation tool

9. CIFOR works on oil palm
• Review on the opportunities and challenges of
oil palm expansion
• The role of oil palm in bioenergy
• The role of oil palm in local economic
development
• Engagement with national government (ISPO)
and multistakeholder process (RSPO, HCS)

10. Global oil palm picture
• The production of palm oil is concentrated
• Top two countries (Indonesia and Malaysia)
contribute to 86% of global production
• Top five countries (Top two, plus Thailand,
Colombia, and Nigeria) contribute to 92% of
global production
• ASEAN countries contribute to 89% of
production

11. Oil palm production
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
ColombiaNigeriaPNG
Ecuador
Ghana
Honduras
Guatemala
Others

12. Indonesia - 2014
29.3million ton CPO production
10.9million ha area
3.6ton CPO/ha

13. Indonesia – yield potentials
Variety FFB Yield (ton/ha) CPO (ton/ha)
D x P PPKS 540 (High mesocarp) 28.1 8.1
D x P PPKS 718 (Big bunch) 26.5 6.9
D x P PPKS 239 (High CPO & PKO) 32.0 8.4
D x P Simalungun 28.4 7.5
D x P Langkat 27.5 7.2
D x P Sungai Pancur (Dumpy) 26.5 6.9
D x P LaMe 26.5 6.4
D x P Avros 25.5 6.3
D x P Yangambi 26.5 6.5
Government vision 35.0 9.1

14. Malaysia - 2014
19.7million ton CPO production
5.4million ha area
3.8ton CPO/ha

15. Malaysia – yield potentials
FFB (ton/ha) CPO/ha
Government target 35 8.8
Theoretical max 17
Highest trials 11.5
Highest field yield 6.8
Highest national yield 4.4

16. Oil palm goes home
• Land is getting scarce in Indonesia and Malaysia
• Expansion to other regions, e.g. Africa