The triennial conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) provides a platform for the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) teams of the CGIAR centers to showcase their work. The first symposium organized by these teams was on ‘Bio-economic modeling to assess options for enhancing food security under climate change in the developing world’ and it took place during the 29th IAAE conference in Brazil in 2012. The teams came again together in 2015 to organize a second symposium on ‘Interpreting results from using bio-economic modeling for global and regional ex ante impact assessment’ at the 30th IAAE conference which took place in Milan on August 8-14, 2015.

1. New crop varieties and climate
change adaptation
Ex-ante analysis of virtual technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT
Keith Wiebe, Bernardo Creamer, Ulrich Kleinwechter, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Guy Hareau, Shahnila
Islam, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Khondoker Mottaleb, Sherman Robinson, Swamikannu Nedumaran
ICAE Milan
12 August 2015

2. Objectives
1. Improved system of integrated
biophysical and economic modeling tools
2. Stronger community of practice for
scenario analysis and ex ante impact
assessment
3. Improved assessments of alternative
global futures
4. To inform research, investment and policy
decisions in the CGIAR and its partners

3. 1. Improved modeling tools
• Complete recoding of IMPACT
version 3
• Disaggregation geographically
and by commodity
• Improved water & crop models
• New data management system
• Modular framework
• Training

4. 2. Stronger community of practice
• 13 CGIAR centers now
participating in GFSF
• IFPRI, Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT,
CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA,
ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish;
AfricaRice and CIFOR joining
• Collaboration with other
global economic modeling
groups through AgMIP

5. • Role of agricultural
technologies
• Africa regional reports
• Analyses by CGIAR
centers
• CCAFS regional
studies
• AgMIP global
economic
assessments
Rainfed Maize
(Africa)
Irrigated Wheat
(S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice
(S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato
(Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum
(Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut
(Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava
(E. + S. + SE. Asia)
3. Improved assessments

6. Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:
biophysical and economic effects

7. Climate change impacts in 2050
Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of
coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 SSP2 baseline values)
Source: Wiebe et al. (forthcoming, Environmental Research Letters)

8. Promising CGIAR technologies
Crop Center Trait Countries (Region) Final
Adoption
Maize CIMMYT Drought tolerance Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya,
Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, United
Republic of Tanzania, Zambia,
Zimbabwe (M1)
30%
Heat tolerance Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan (M2) 30%
Wheat CIMMYT Drought tolerance Iran, Turkey (W1) 35%
Heat tolerance India, Pakistan (W2) 30%
Drought and heat tolerance Argentina, South Africa (W3) 30%
Potato CIP Drought tolerance Bangladesh, China, Kyrgyzstan, India,
Nepal, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
(P1)
4-40%
Heat tolerance 4-40%
Drought and heat tolerance 4-40%
Sorghum ICRISAT Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India,
Mali, Nigeria, Sudan, United Republic of
Tanzania (S1)
20-80%
Groundnut ICRISAT Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Malawi,
Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda,
United Republic of Tanzania, Viet Nam
(G1)
40-60%
Heat tolerance 40-60%
Drought and heat tolerance,
high yielding
40-60%
Cassava CIAT Mealybug control methods China, India, Indonesia, Lao People’s
Democratic Republic, Myanmar,
Thailand (C1)
NA
Source: Islam et al. (draft)

9. Baseline productivity growth
Baseline productivity growth
(% change from 2005 to 2050)
Without Market Effects With Market Effects
Crop Region Water
Regime
NoCC
(1)
CC
(2)
NoCC
(3)
CC
(4)
Maize M1 irrigated 68.3 60.4 48.7 46.2
rainfed 55.8 46.7 36.5 32.4
Maize M2 irrigated 85.6 46.3 66.0 33.6
rainfed 123.5 74.0 96.3 56.0
Wheat W1 irrigated 153.2 177.4 141.1 164.3
rainfed 89.1 102.2 79.0 91.3
Wheat W2 irrigated 103.9 90.6 97.5 85.0
rainfed 86.3 86.4 81.1 81.2
Wheat W3 irrigated 34.8 15.7 19.0 2.3
rainfed 15.2 -2.7 0.8 -14.7
Potato P1 irrigated 56.6 53.6 38.5 38.2
rainfed 16.1 15.5 3.1 4.3
Sorghum S1 irrigated 224.0 123.4 197.1 107.7
rainfed 88.4 70.6 72.1 57.9
Groundnut G1 irrigated 31.3 17.7 16.5 6.9
rainfed 30.7 18.8 16.5 8.3
Cassava C1 irrigated 101.6 89.7 81.9 75.5
rainfed 33.2 15.6 22.3 8.7
Source: Islam et al. (draft)

10. Yield impacts of promising
technologies under climate change
Promising Technologies
Single Traits Stacked Traits
Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Drought + Heat
Tolerance
Drought + Heat
Tolerance
+ High Yielding
Crop Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed
Maize 10.5 23.9 27.5 13.5
Wheat 0.1 2.0 0.9 - 4.5 2.8
Potatoes 0.3 0.4 1.6 0.1 3.1 0.4
Sorghum 0.0 6.6
Groundnuts 0.2 3.7 7.1 4.1 15.6 13.8
(percent difference from 2050 CC baseline without the new technologies)
Source: Islam et al. (draft)

11. • Role of agricultural
technologies
• Africa regional reports
• Analyses by CGIAR
centers
• CCAFS regional
studies
• AgMIP global
economic
assessments
Rainfed Maize
(Africa)
Irrigated Wheat
(S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice
(S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato
(Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum
(Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut
(Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava
(E. + S. + SE. Asia)
3. Improved assessments

12. 4. Informing decision making
• CGIAR centers
• CGIAR Research Programs
• National partners
• Regional organizations
• International organizations and
donors

13. The CGIAR Research Agenda
Reduced Poverty
Improved food and
nutrition security
for health
Improved natural
resource systems
and ecosystem
services
Increased
resilience of
the poor to
climate
change and
other
shocks
Enhanced
smallholder
market
access
Increased
incomes
and
employment
Increased
productivity
Improved
diets for
poor and
vulnerable
people
Improved
food safety
Improved
human and
animal
health
through
better
agricultural
practices
Natural
capital
enhanced
and
protected,
especially
from climate
change
Enhanced
benefit from
ecosystem
goods and
services
More
sustainably
managed
agro-
ecosystems
System Level Outcomes (SLOs) and
Intermediate Development Objectives (IDOs)

14. Improvements currently under way
• Livestock and fish
• Nutrition and health
• Variability
• Poverty
• Land use
• Environmental impacts

15. Concluding thoughts
• Biophysical and economic effects
• Complexity and transparency
• Priority setting in the CGIAR
• Institutional factors
• Scale of analysis and decision making
• Quantitative and qualitative approaches
• Expectations

16. Thank you
k.wiebe@cgiar.org