The document outlines recent developments in the Middle East and Africa, highlighting tensions regarding an Iranian cargo ship's refusal of inspections amid humanitarian aid efforts in Yemen, a fractured al-Qaeda network with factions pledging allegiance to ISIS, and ongoing violence from al-Shabaab in Somalia. Additionally, it details the lack of political progress in Yemen and regional military escalations, particularly involving Saudi Arabia and the al-Houthi movement. It also notes that Iran continues to position itself as a leader in regional security while engaging in nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 nations.

1. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT
May 19, 2015

2. TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1. Iranian officials said an Iranian cargo ship, which left from Bandar Abbas, Iran, for al Hudaydah,
Yemen, and is escorted by the Artesh Navy’s 34th Fleet, will refuse inspections by Saudi or American
officials.
2. Political progress was not made during a Yemen ceasefire for humanitarian aid distribution.
3. Al Qaeda-linked al Murabitoun, operating in the Sahel, may have split into ISIS and al Qaeda factions.
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3. ASSESSMENT:
al Qaeda Network
Al Qaeda senior leadership has been notably silent on the death of recent members, including individuals like Ahmed Farouq
who was reported to be the second-in-command of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. Separately, al Qaeda’s Sahelian and
Maghrebian network may be fracturing as there are reports of some factions pledging allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and
al Sham (ISIS). Such fractures probably do not affect the level of the overall threat from the global jihadist movement to the
West, which remains as both ISIS and al Qaeda encourage low-level attacks in the West. Al Qaeda will probably continue to try
to emphasize the differences between ISIS’s and al Qaeda’s strategies.
Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to prioritize its fight in Syria, but will also take advantage of recent gains in Yemen. It is not
clear how it will respond to the growth of ISIS cells in the Maghreb and Sahel. Al Qaeda will also continue to try to inspire low-
scale attacks in the West.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associates
An attack on a bus in Karachi killed at least 43 Ismaili Shia civilians on May 13. The attack has been claimed by ISIS Wilayat
Khorasan and also the TTP splinter, Jundullah, although Jundullah has made previous claims for attacks later attributed to other
groups. The Karachi bus attack is the first mass-casualty ISIS-claimed attack in the Pakistani port city. A Jundullah leader
claimed that the group had received funding from ISIS and was planning additional attacks. Seperately, the Pakistani military
(PakMil) launched a new offensive to push the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from its stronghold in the northwestern region of
North Waziristan. The TTP’s leadership remains under pressure as U.S. and Pakistani airstrikes target TTP leaders on both
sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border.
Outlook: PakMil operations, drone strikes continue in North/South Waziristan, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan
border.
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AL QAEDA

4. ASSESSMENT:
Political
Saudi Arabia and the al Houthi movement agreed to a five-day ceasefire that began on May 12 and ended May 17. The
ceasefire held despite reported violations from both the al Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia. Separately, Iran announced that
it would send a cargo ship carrying humanitarian relief to Yemen, but would not submit to inspections by Saudi-led coalition
forces. The ship has increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
Outlook: It is unlikely that another ceasefire will be implemented in the near future. The humanitarian situation in Yemen will
continue to degrade, which will in turn increase international pressure on Saudi Arabia to end airstrikes in Yemen.
Security
Saudi Arabia has continued to train Yemeni troops for redeployment against the al Houthis, with a reported 60 Saudi-trained
Yemenis arriving in Mudia, Abyan, on May 9. Separately, Saudi Arabia began massing military units in Najran, Saudi Arabia,
near the Yemeni-Saudi Arabian border. Al Houthi militants fired mortars at Saudi Arabian targets in Jizan and Najran on May 13
and 15. Al Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have increased in frequency despite the implementation of the humanitarian
ceasefire.
Outlook: Continued attacks by al Houthi militants targeting Saudi Arabia with artillery fire will further escalate tensions between
Saudi Arabia and the al Houthi movement.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Suspected U.S. airstrikes killed three AQAP militants in al Said, Shabwah, on May 9, and AQAP spiritual leader Mamoun
Hatem in al Mukalla, Shabwah, on May 11. Separately, AQAP began surrendering direct control of government infrastructure in
al Mukalla to the Hadhrami People’s Council (HPC), a pro-AQAP tribal group, on May 10. AQAP also banned the sale of qat in
al Mukalla on May 14, which may increase anti-AQAP sentiments in the region.
Outlook: AQAP has continued to expand its influence in eastern Yemen through partnership with local actors.
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

5. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN
1) 11-15 MAY: Al
Houthi militants fired
mortars at Saudi
targets in Jizan and
Najran, Saudi Arabia.
2) 11 MAY: Suspected
U.S. airstrike killed
AQAP spiritual leader
Mamoun Hatem.
3) 09 MAY: Saudi-
trained Yemeni
soldiers deployed in
Mudia city, Abyan.
4) 09-15 MAY:
Popular resistance
fighters battled al
Houthi militants for
control of Taiz city,
Taiz.
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6. ASSESSMENT:
Political
Tensions between Puntland and the Somali Federal Government appear to be increasing. Puntland voiced its objections to the
Somali Federal Government’s selection of the new electoral, boundaries, and judicial service commissions. Puntland holds that
the commissions will not have authority over Puntland, since the federal government did not consult Puntland in their selection.
The various commissions will all play a role in achieving the Vision 2016 goals, which the Somali Federal Government and the
regional administrations all had promised to cooperate to achieve.
Outlook: While previous agreements between the Somali Federal Government and regional administrations have shown some
promise, Somalia’s federalization process will continue to be contentious.
Security
Puntland’s cabinet announced that it would not allow AMISOM forces to conduct anti-al Shabaab operations in Puntland despite
a recent increase in al Shabaab activity in Puntland. The cabinet stated its confidence in Puntland’s security forces to defeat al
Shabaab, although they have recently struggled to prevent attacks.
Outlook: Puntland’s security forces will continue to struggle to combat al Shabaab without AMISOM’s assistance, which could
result in additional attacks in northern Somalia.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab militants captured two towns from SNA forces in Lower Shabelle region. The group has been under pressure from
security forces and losing control of territory in southern Somalia, but appears able to conduct operations against the SNA.
Separately, the group released a video on May 9, featuring a fighter identified as the suicide bomber in the July 2010 attack in
Kampala, Uganda. The video warned AMISOM contributors Burundi and Kenya that they would be targeted in future attacks.
Outlook: Al Shabaab still challenges the capabilities of the SNA and maintains an effective fighting force, which the SNA will
likely need AMISOM support in defeating, even though al Shabaab has suffered recent territorial losses.
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GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

7. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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1) 11 MAY: Al
Shabaab attacked
Ethiopian AMISOM
forces in Qanax
Dheere, Bay region.
2) 12 MAY: Suspected
al Shabaab militants
attacked a Kenyan
police base in Garissa
County, North
Eastern Province,
Kenya.
3) 13 MAY: Al
Shabaab kidnapped
an Iranian fishing
vessel’s crew near El
Dheer, Galgudud
region.
4) 15 MAY: Al
Shabaab captured
two towns in Lower
Shabelle region.
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8. ASSESSMENT:
AQIM
Pro-ISIS groups in the Maghreb and Sahel continue to emerge. A group calling itself the Skikda Battalion, known in Arabic as
the Supporters of the Caliphate in the Rahman Mountains (Ansar al Khalifa fi Jebel al Rahman), pledged allegiance to ISIS in
an audio statement. ISIS acknowledged the pledge from the Skikda Battalion in its May 10 weekly al Bayan news bulletin.
Outlook: ISIS appears to be gaining traction in North Africa, indicating that al Qaeda may be losing support from militants in the
region.
Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)
Militant organizations continue to threaten attacks on the Tunisian state. The Islamist media outlet, al Afriqiyah Media, posted a
video urging militants to conduct lone-wolf attacks in Tunisia to create a “summer of hell.” Similarly, the Uqba Ibn Nafaa Brigade
also posted a video showing its members fighting against Tunisian security forces in Jebel Chaambi.
Outlook: The recent increase in media threats of attacks on Tunisia may indicate militant organizations are focusing their
efforts on Tunisia.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)
There may be a fracture within the Sahelian group, al Murabitoun, which formed as a merger between MUJAO and al
Mulathamun. The Mauritanian news agency al Akhbar released an audio recording in which Abu Waleed al Sahraoui, claiming
to speak for al Murabitoun, pledged allegiance to ISIS. A rectifying tweet later said that only MUJAO had pledged allegiance. Al
Murabitoun’s pledge was later denied by an audio attributed to al Mulathamun leader, Mokhtar Belmokhtar. Separately, some
rebel Tuareg groups signed the May 15 peace accord with the Malian government, although one of the largest groups, the
MNLA, refused to sign the agreement.
Outlook: The failure of the MNLA to sign the May 15 peace agreement could presage further violence between rebel groups
and the Malian government.
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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

9. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST AFRICA
1) 12 MAY: Suspected
terrorists killed four
Algerian vigilantes in
Batna, northern
Algeria.
2) 13 MAY: Algerian
army units
ambushed and killed
two terrorists in Ain
Defla, northern
Algeria.
3) 14 MAY: Tunisian
military units killed
four terrorists hiding
in Mount Samama,
Kasserine, western
Tunisia.
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10. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST AFRICA
1) 11 MAY: Rebels
attacked a Malian
army convoy in
Timbuktu, northern
Mali.
2) 13 MAY: CMA
rebels clashed with
pro-government
militias, leaving four
dead, in the village of
Ikadewan,
northeastern Mali.
3) 15 MAY: CMA
rebels clashed with
pro-government
militias in Menaka,
northeastern Mali,
on the morning of
the peace accord
signing ceremony.
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11. ASSESSMENT:
Regional Developments
The Iran Shahed, a cargo ship carrying humanitarian aid supplies to support relief efforts in Yemen, left Bandar Abbas, Iran, on
May 11. The Artesh Navy later announced that the 34th Fleet was “especially responsible for supporting” the Iran Shahed.
Following an earlier U.S. statement that Iran should dock the vessel in Djibouti, Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir
Abdollahian stated that after coordinating with the UN, Iran would dock the Iran Shahed at al Hudaydah, Yemen. IRGC boats
also fired warning shots over the bow of the Singapore-flagged, Norwegian-operated Alpine Eternity in the Persian Gulf on May
14; Iranian sources stated that authorities had attempted to stop the Alpine Eternity for hitting an Iranian oil rig in March and
causing $300 million in damages.
Arguing that Iranian missiles are “for the defense of…the entire Islamic world,” Expediency Discernment Council Secretary
Mohsen Rezaei stated that Iran would “defend” the “sovereignty of Saudi Arabia” if necessary. Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani
echoed Rezaei’s comments later, stating Iran would defend Saudi sovereignty because Saudi Arabia “is Muslim.” Rezaei and
Larijani’s comments reflect Iran’s projection as the leader of the Islamic world and the power responsible for regional security.
Outlook: Iran will continue to project itself as the leader of the Islamic world and source of regional security.
Nuclear Talks
The Iranian delegation led by senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi and members of the P5+1 held a series of deputy-level
talks from May 12-15 in Vienna, Austria. Both sides continued to work on drafting a final nuclear agreement. Araghchi
expressed optimism that Iran and the P5+1 will reach a final deal before the self-imposed June 30 deadline. IAEA Secretary
General Yukiya Amano, meanwhile, stated that Iran’s military sites can be inspected by agency officials. Amano, moreover,
claimed that under the April 2 Lausanne framework agreement inspectors can request access to military sites as part of the
Additional Protocol. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) dismissed Amano’s statements regarding inspections and
criticized the IAEA secretary general for making baseless claims that could undermine the ongoing nuclear negotiations.
Outlook: Future plans for IAEA-led inspections of Iran’s non-nuclear facilities will continue to spark rhetorical outrage, given the
Supreme Leader’s fears of humiliation by conceding to U.S. demands.
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IRAN

12. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN
1219 APR – 24 APR 2015
11 MAY: The Iranian Red Crescent Society announced that Iran Shahed, an Iranian cargo ship carrying humanitarian aid
supplies, left Bandar Abbas, Iran.
11 MAY: Expediency Discernment Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated that Iranian missiles are “for the defense of…the
entire Islamic world,” and that Iran would “defend” the “sovereignty of Saudi Arabia” if necessary.
12 MAY: Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed optimism that the P5+1 and Iran will reach a final nuclear deal
before the June 30 deadline. Deputy-level talks between Iran and P5+1 members start.
12 MAY: The Artesh Navy announced the 34th Fleet is “especially responsible for supporting” the Iran Shahed.
12 MAY: NSFP Parliamentary Commission Chairman Alaeddin Boroujerdi stated that Iran is “planning to construct field
hospitals in Sana’a and Sa’ada.”
13 MAY: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised Iran-Iraq relations while meeting with Iraqi President Fuad Masum.
13 MAY: Ali Akbar Velayati criticized the GCC summit at Camp David as a show of “Iranophobia.”
13 MAY: Ali Larijani stated that Iran would defend Saudi Arabia in the event of an Israeli attack.
13 MAY: The Ministry of Defense reiterated AFGS Headquarters Deputy IRGC Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri’s warning
against any attacks on the Iranian humanitarian aid ship bound for Yemen.
14 MAY: IRGC boats fired warning shots over the bow of Singapore-flagged vessel Alpine Eternity in the Persian Gulf.
14 MAY: Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated that Iran coordinated “with ‘relevant sides’ at the United
Nations” for docking the Iran Shahed at al Hudaydah, Yemen.
14 MAY: Chief of the Judiciary’s Human Rights Council Mohammad Javad Larijani criticized the Lausanne nuclear negotiations
as having “serious weaknesses” and said that “Iran must build five other underground [nuclear] sites.”
15 MAY: The fourth day of deputy level talks between Iran and P5+1 members take place.
09 MAY – 15 MAY 2015

13. ACRONYMS
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Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)
Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
Islamic State (IS)
Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
North Waziristan (NWA)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
South Waziristan (SWA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS
Katherine Zimmerman
senior al Qaeda analyst
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Alexis Knutsen
al Qaeda analyst
alexis.knutsen@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Mehrdad Moarefian
Iran analyst
mehrdad.moarefian@aei.org
(202) 888-6574
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,
visit www.criticalthreats.org.
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