Technical analysis of Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) index for the week from Mar 01, 2015 to Mar 04, 2015. The technical analysis includes summary, RSI, MACD and Bollinger band analysis. The analysis is done by Kriti Capital & Investments Ltd.

1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. Market Summary (as of Mar 6 , 2015)
NEPSE at close last week (Mar 4, 2015) 983.49
NEPSE high last week (Mar 4, 2015) 984.85
Weekly Change 4.22 (or 0.44%)
Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 23.06 crores
Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 92.25 crores
Immediate Resistance 1036.98
Immediate Support 972.17
RSI 59.10
MACD Line 6.34
Signal Line 8.47
2. Market Trend
Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

2. 3. RSI
RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways
movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market
is not clearly trending upwards or downwards. The RSI moved up slightly this week, still maintaining
within the neutral zone. On Sunday, the RSI had fallen to 54.85 levels. However, by the close of the
trading week, the RSI spiked up to 59.10 levels.
RSI (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)
4. MACD
The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which
provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is
considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. The MACD line was
below the Signal line the week prior, and it continued the downward momentum by the end of this
week. Currently the MACD seems to be touching the signal line. If the MACD makes a crossover
above the signal line, it indicates a buy signal in the market.
MACD (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)
5. Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two
trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,
which are represented by calculating standard deviation. The NEPSE line has moved up slightly this
week, touching the mid-band. The NEPSE appears to be moving with the mid-band by the last trading
day. The upper and the lower bands have still converged indicating decreasing volatility in the market.

3. Bollinger Bands (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)
Overview:
NEPSE ended on a positive note this week as it closed higher by 2.07 points (or 0.21%) to end at
983.49 points. Nepse increased on the last day, closing higher than the week’s average of 981.36. The
average daily market volume increased this week to NRP 23.06 crores from NRP 21.65 crores the
week prior. The 50-day moving average is still increasing at a higher rate above the 200-day moving
average suggesting that the overall view of the market remains positive. The RSI increased slightly to
59.10 levels and still maintained within the neutral zone. The MACD line is moving close with the
signal line. However, if this line crosses above the signal line, this would indicate a buy trigger. The
Bollinger Bands indicate a decline in the market volatility as Nepse moved closer to the mid-band.
Nepse still has been able to maintain above its support level of 972.17 points during the past four
weeks. If Nepse falls below this support level with increasing volume, the next closest support level
stands at 938.41 points.

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Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

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lbgdf %$=*% df tn em/]sf] cf/P;cfO{ ;ftfsf] cGTo lt/ dfly cfO{ %(=!) sf] l:ylt df aGb x'g uof] .
RSI (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)
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MACD (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

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kQf nufO{G5 . of] ;ftfsf] g]K;] s]xL a9g uO{ dWo Aof08 5'g k'Uof] . ;ftfsf] cGTo lt/ g]K;]
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Bollinger Bands (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)
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