Nepse Weekly Technical Analysis February 21 - February 25, 2016

1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. Market Summary (as of February 25, 2016)
NEPSE at close last week (February 25, 2016) 1283.52
NEPSE high last week (February 22, 2016) 1291.81
Weekly Change 10.24 points (or 0.81%)
Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 56.93 crores
Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 284.65 crores
RSI 75.92
MACD Line 23.76
Signal Line 24.54
2. Nepse Figure
Nepse (June 1, 2014 – February 25, 2016)

2. 3. Trend Analysis
The Nepse index made a decent climb in the course of last week as well. The index gained 10.24 points (or up
0.81%) to close at 1283.52. It corrected itself for two day during the week as investors seem to be moving on
to relatively safer bets such as NIB FPO, which start on 11th
falgun. As soon as NRB and SEBON banned
NIBPO holders, big investors, especially insurance companies and mutual fund moved on to others scripts in
the secondary market. Currently insurance and development banks sub index are on peak point and as mutual
fund and insurance companies move to secondary market, commercial banks have potential to rise again. Last
week, Nepse created a new height of 1291.81 on Monday. The 50 days moving average is still running above
200 days moving average, indicating Nepse is still on bullish trend.
4. Resistance and Support
Immediate Support 1257
Support 2 1216
Immediate Resistance 1320
Resistance 2
Last week Nepse went close to 1300 level at 1298 and made new height, which closed at 1291. With
money returning in the secondary market from the institutional investors, it is expected to cross previous
height of 1298 and reach first resistance 1320 level.
5. Trend Indicator
a.) MACD
The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which
provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is
considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa.
The macd and the signal line, at the beginning of the week, stood at 24.30 and 24.63 respectively. Both
the lines continue to move close to each other. The distance between the lines has remained close and the
macd line is currently below the signal line, which could mean a slowdown in the bullish run. By the end
of the week, the macd and the signal line closed at 23.76 and 24.54 respectively.
b.) RSI
RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways
movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market is
not clearly trending upwards or downwards.

3. The RSI, at the beginning of the week, stood at 84.64 level, which continue to signifies very high buying
pressure in the market. In the course of the week, it fell by 8.72 points to close at 75.92 level. It seems
that the RSI will come down in the coming days, which will suggest a slowdown in the buying pressure in
the market.
c.) Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two
trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,
which are represented by calculating standard deviation.
The benchmark index has been bouncing below the upper Bollinger band in the past month. As the
market seems to be on a bullish run, the index could still touch the upper band once again. The distance
between the upper and the lower band has remained constant as well, suggesting moderate market
volatility.
6. Volume Indicator (On-Balance Volume)
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a momentum indicator that relates volume to the current price of the index
or security. It measures buying and selling pressure at the market. It acts as a cumulative indicator that
adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days. If a price increase is supported by OBV, it
confirms an uptrend, whereas if a price decrease is supported by OBV, it confirms a downtrend.

4. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) still shows volatility as compared to the movement in Nepse. In the
course of last week, the OBV climbed up, which support the bullish run that is still present in the market.
The average weekly volume transactions increased to NPR 56.93 crores from NPR 49.34 crores the week
prior.
7. Overview
The Nepse index gained 10.24 points (or up 0.81%) to close at 1283.52. The 50-day and 200-day moving
average continue to climb up along with the benchmark index, indicating that the overall market condition
looks good. The RSI continues to signal high buying pressure in the market as it is hovering at 75.92 level.
However, the level has been cooling down, which could bean a slowdown in the buying pressure. The macd
line is still moving very close to the signal line. The Bollinger bands still indicate moderate market volatility.
The support and resistance level stands the same at 1257 and 1320 respectively.
Note:
It was expected that NIB FPO would collect huge money from secondary market. Later as NIBPO holders
were bar to apply NIB FPO, institutional investors like mutual fund and insurance company’s investment will
return to secondary market, so banking index is on center investment.

5. k|fljlwsljZn]if0f
!_ahf/ ;f/f+z -kmfNu'0f!#, @)&@ ;Ddsf]_
aGb cªs -kmfNu'0f!#, @)&@_ !@*#=%@
pRr cªs -uPsf] ;ftf_ !@(!=*!
;fKtflxs kl/jt{g !)=@$ -)=*!k|ltzt_
b}lgscf};t Jofkf/ ¿=%^=(!s/f]8
s'n ;fKtflxsJofkf/ ¿ @*$=^% s/f]8
cf/P;cfO{ &%=(@
PdP;L8L @#=&^
l;UgnnfO{g @$=%$
@_ ahf/ k|j[lt
Nepse (June 1, 2014 – February 25, 2016)

6. #_ 6]«G8 ljZn]if0f
uPsf] ;ftfklg g]K;] kl/;"rs a9g] s|dhf/L g} /xof] . uPsf] ;ftf kl/;"rsdf !)=@$cªssf] a[l4
b]lvof] h;sf] kmn:j?kahf/ !@*#=%@ cªsdfaGbeof] . ;ftfsf] s]xLlbgahf/df s/]S;gklgblvof] hf]
clxn] ahf/df s]xLsKdgLx?sf] k|fyldslgisfzgn] ubf{ klgx'gk'Uof] . ;ftfsf] cGTolt/ lgodglgsfon]
g]kfn O{Ge]i6d]G6 a}+ssf] Pkmlkcf] df ;+:yfks z]o/ wf/0f ug]{x? b/vf:tkmf/d xfNgaGb]h u/] nut} 7"nf
nufgLstf{x?n] g]K;]df c? z]o/ lsGgyfn]sf] ;d]t b]lvof] . uPsf] ;ftf g]K;] kl/;"rsn] cfkmgf]
Oltxf;s} ;a}eGbfpRrcªs !@(!=*! Kff/ u/]sf] cj:yf /xof] . clxn] klg kl/;"rs %) lbg] d'leËPe/]h
tyf @)) lbg] d'leËeGbfdfly g} rln/x]sf] cj:yf ;du|dfahf/sf] l:ylt /fd|f] b]lvG5 / ahf/ clxn]
klga'lnzcj:yfdf g} /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 .
$_ 6]jftyfk|lt/f]w cªs
glhssf] 6]jfcªs !@%&
6]jfcªs @ !@!^
glhssf] k|lt/f]w cªs !#@)
uPsf] ;ftfklgg]K;] kl/;"rscfkmgf] Oltxf; s} pRrcªs !@(! kf/ u/]sf] cj:yf /xof] . bf];|f] ahf/df km]l/
7"nf nufgLstf{x?sf] ;+nUgtf a9] kl5 ahf/ km]l/ cem} dflyhfg ;Sg] ;+Defjgfalnof] ePsf] 5 .
oxLcj:yfdfahf/n] cfkmgf] glhssf] k|lt/f]w cªs !#@) ;d]t kf/ ug{ ;Sg] ;+Defjgf /x]sf] 5 .
%_ g]K;] 6]«G8 ;"rs
s_ d'leª Pe/]hsGeh]{G; 8fOeh]{G; -PdP;L8L_
PdP;L8Ldf b'O{ cf]6f /]vf x'G5g, h;df Pp6fn] ahf/sf] lbzf kl/jt{gsf] ;+s]t u5{ eg] csf]{n] ahf/sf]
k|j[lQ -6«]08_ b]vfpg] u5{ . olb PdP;L8L /]vfn] l;Ung /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 dfly sf6]dfo;nfO{ ;sf/fTds
;+s]tsf ?kdflnO{G5 / o;n] z]o/x? lsGg] ;+s]t ub{5 .
uPsf] ;ftfsf] z'?df PdP;L8L nfO{gtyfl;UgnnfO{g s|dzM @$=#)tyf @$=^#sf] l:yltdf /x]sf] lyof] .
clxn] klgb'j} nfO{g ;Fu ;Fu} rln/x]sf] cj:yf /xof] . xfnsf] cj:yfdfPdP;L8L
nfO{gl;UgnnfO{geGbftn /x]sf] l:yltn] a'lnzcj:yfdf s]xLsdLcfPsf] 5 . . ;ftfsf] cGTodfPdP;L8L
tyfl;UgnnfO{g s|dzM @#=&^tyf @$=%$cªssf] l:yltdf /xgk'Uof] .

7. v_ l/n]l6j :6«]Gy OG8]S; -cf/P;cfO{_
cf/P;cfO{ k|fljlwsljZn]if0fsf] o:tf] cf}hf/ xf], h;nfO{ Pstlkm{ ?kdfrln/x]sf] ahf/dfJofkf/ /0fgLlt
agfpg a9L pkof]uL dflgG5 . To;}u/L, o;n] ahf/dfvl/b / ljlqmsf] :ki6 ;+s]t b]vfpg] u5{ .
uPsf] ;ftfz?dfcf/P;cfO{ *$=^$ cªsdf /x]sf] lyof] h;n] ahf/dflsGg] xf]8afhLsf] ;+s]t ub{5 . t/
kl5 ;ftfsf] afFsLlbgx?df ;f] *=&@ cªsn] 36]/ &%=(@ cªs ;d]t 5f]Psf] cj:yf /xof] . h;n]
cfufdLlbgx?dfcf/P;cfO{ 36g] ;Defjgf /x]sf] b]vfp5 h;sf] kmn:j?kahf/ /x]sf] lsGg] xf]8afhLdf
s]xLsdLcfpg ;S5 .
u_ af]lnªu/ Aof08
af]lnªu/ Aof08 Ps k|fljlwsljZn]if0f ;"rsxf] h;df @!–lbg] d'leËPe/]hsf ;fyb'O{ Aof08 -Pp6f
dfly_ / Pp6f tn_ x'G5g . lo Aof08x?n] cl:y/tfsf] ;+s]t ub{5g, h'g :6fG88{ 8]leP;g u0fgf
u/]/ kQfnufO{G5 .
g]K;] kl/;"rsuPsf] ;ftfpkNnf] Aof08nfO{ 5f]P/ tncfPsf] cj:yf /xof] hf] uPsf] Ps
dlxgfdfnueu Pp6} 6]«G8df rln/xof] .;fy} pkNnf] tyftNnf] Jof08 aLr a9]sf] b'/Lnueu Pp6}
/x]sf] l:yltn] ahf/dfcl:yt/tfcem} sfod /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 .

8. ;du{dfM
uPsf] ;ftf g]K;] kl/;"rsdf!)=@$cªssf]] a[l4 b]lvof] h;sf] kmn:j?k
kl/;"rs!@*#=%@cªsdfaGbeof] . clxn]klgkl/;"rs %) lbg] d'leËPe/]htyf @)) lbg]
d'leËeGbfdflyuO{/x]sf] cj:yfn] ahf/ ;sf/fTds l:yltdf g} /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 .*) cªsaf6
s]xLtnem/]sf] cf/P;cfO{n] clxn] klgahf/ cf]e/a6 l:yltdf /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 t/ uPsf] ;ftfsf]
cl3Nnf] ;ftfeGbf s]xLtncfPsf] cf/P;cfO{ eg] ahf/dfcf]e/a6 l:yltdf s]xLsdLcfpg ;Sg] ;+Defjgf
/x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . af]lnªu/ Aof08n] ahf/ a'lnz l:ylt ;Fu} ahf/dfcl:yt/tfcem} sfod /x]sf] ;+s]t
ub{5 . xfnsf] cj:yfdfgofF 6]jfcªstyfk|lt/f]w cªs s||dzM !@%&tyf !#@) /x]sf] 5 .