IFPRI Senior Research Analyst Nicola Cenacchi presented at the FAO Biotech Symposium side event on "Helping Farmers Grow: Climate Change, Food Security, and the Technology Nexus".

1. Enhancing Crop Productivity and
Food Security: The Role of
Agricultural Technologies
FAO Biotech Symposium
Side event: Helping Farmers Grow: Climate Change,
Food Security, and the Technology Nexus
FAO – Rome, Italy – February 15, 2016
Nicola Cenacchi
IFPRI - Environment and Production Technology Division

2.  Challenges
• Income
• Population growth
• Water scarcity
• Biofuel demand
• Climate change
 Growing threats to:
• Land • Water
• Environmental preservation • Biodiversity
 Enhanced investment in agricultural research + technological
change Game-changer
 Lack sufficient knowledge
• Disaggregated impacts of specific technologies by country
• Agroclimatic zone
Business as Usual: Challenges
and Threats = Continued Scarcity
Higher food prices

3. Presentation Overview
1. Food Security in a World of Natural Resource
Scarcity – (IFPRI)
2. Ex-Ante Analysis of Promising and Alternative
Crop Technologies – (IFPRI & GFSF)

4. Modeling climate and technology impacts on
agriculture: biophysical & economic effects
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
General
circulation
models (GCMs)
Global gridded
crop models
Global
economic
models
Δ Temp
Δ Precip
…
Δ Yield
(biophys)
Δ Area
Δ Yield
Δ Cons.
Δ Trade
Climate Biophysical Economic
DSSAT
model
IMPACT
model

5. Food Security in a World of
Natural Resource Scarcity:
The Role of Agricultural Technologies

6.  Global & Regional
 Eleven
technologies
 Three Crops
• Wheat
• Rice
• Maize
 2 CC scenarios
• No-Tillage
• Integrated Soil Fertility
Management
• Organic Agriculture
• Precision Agriculture
• Crop Protection
• Drip Irrigation
• Sprinkler Irrigation
• Water Harvesting
• Drought Tolerance
• Heat Tolerance
• Nitrogen Use Efficiency
Technology Assessment Scope

7. Change (%) in Yields:
2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT)
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

8. Percent Change in World Price, Maize:
2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT)
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.
-1.2
-12.0
-15.5
-18.0
-16.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Change in price of Maize
-0.4
-5.8
-20.3
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Change in price of Rice
-1.5
-8.4
-9.7
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Change in price of Wheat

9. Change (%) in Population at Risk
of Hunger:
2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT)
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

10. 10

11. 11

12. Ex-Ante Analysis of Promising
and Alternative Crop
Technologies

13.  Regional only
 4 improved
varieties
 1 CC scenario
 Multiple Crops
• Wheat
• Maize
• Potato
• Sorghum
• Groundnut
• Drought Tolerance
• Heat Tolerance
• Drought & Heat Tolerance
• Stress Tolerance + High
Yield characters
Technology Assessment Scope

14. Crop Trait Countries (Region)
Maize Drought tolerance Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi,
Mozambique, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania,
Zambia, Zimbabwe (M1)
Heat tolerance Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan (M2)
Wheat Drought tolerance Iran, Turkey (W1)
Heat tolerance India, Pakistan (W2)
Drought and heat tolerance Argentina, South Africa (W3)
Potato Drought Tolerance Bangladesh, China, Kyrgyzstan, India, Nepal,
Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (P1)Heat tolerance
Drought and heat tolerance
Sorghum Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Mali, Nigeria,
Sudan, United Republic of Tanzania (S1)
Groundnut Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Malawi, Mali,
Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, United Republic
of Tanzania, Viet Nam (G1)Heat tolerance
Drought and heat tolerance, high yielding
Adoption regions – by crop and
improved trait

15. Black line represents 2050 yields without climate
change with baseline technology
Source: Robinson et al. 2014.
Adoption of improved traits may
reduce climate change impacts

16. Key Messages
 Adoption of improved varieties shows the potential
for reducing the effects of climate change on yields
 There are possible large regional differences in
yield impacts - it is important to target specific
investments to specific regions
 Large scale adoption of improved varieties may
translate into positive food security outcomes due
both to effects on production and on global food
prices

17. Concluding Thoughts
 The traits we model in these studies are
independent from the technologies used to
produce them
 Conventional breeding can provide relatively slow
improvements, but a steady progress
 GM (transgenics) may allow more stepwise
increase, but the regulatory and legislative
challenges are slowing the process (including the
progress of biosafety regulations and trials.)

18. Nicola Cenacchi, Senior Research Analyst
Email: n.cenacchi@cgiar.org
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
2033 K Street, NW
Washington, DC 20006 USA
IFPRI: http://www.ifpri.org/
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/