Presentation on Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity by CCAFS Director Bruce Campbell.

1. Climate Change, Food Security and
Diversity
Bruce Campbell, Director, CCAFS

2. 1. Climate change impacts on agriculture
2. The global challenges for food and nutritional security
3. Climate-smart agriculture
4. Diversity as a key to adaptation

3. IPCC AR5 in April 2014:
global diagnosis for the next seven years?

4. Working Group 2
Chapter 7 (Chapter 19)
Working Group 3
Chapter 11

5. Chapter 7

6. • Global surface temperature change likely to
exceed 1.5 C by 2100
• Large spatial and temporal variability
• Extreme events will increase

7. Evidence that yields losses occur already
Lobell et al 2011

8. Cheung et al 2010

9. Warren et al 2013
Major biodiversity loss predicted
Plant
Proportion
of species
losing
>50% of
range
20802050
Year
Animal
2020 20802050
Year
2020

10. 2. The global challenges for food and
nutritional security

11. 1.5
billion
people
depend on
Degraded
Land
USD 7.5 billion lost to
extreme Weather (2010)
1 billion more
People by 2030
1.4 billion living in
Poverty
14% more
Food needed per
decade
Nearly 1 billion
going Hungry

12. Sustainable Development Goals (2030)
• End extreme poverty, including absolute
income poverty ($1.25 or less per day).
• End hunger and achieve food security,
appropriate nutrition, and zero child stunting
Aspiration: Half a billion small-scale
producers with enhanced resilience to
climate change by 2030

13. Are these targets insurmountable?
“63 million customers per day,
so 500 million smallholders in
the next decade is easy!”
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Relative2012=100%
Food
demand
Grain yield
per ha
GDP
Cell phone
penetration
Global Harvest Initiative 2013
FAOSTAT
World Bank/Standard Chartered
GSMA/Deloitte
Sub-Saharan Africa

14. And with reduced emissions from Ag
Gt CO2e per year
12 15
36
70
2010 2050
(Business as usual)
2050
(2°C target)
Non-agricultural
emissions
Agricultural and
land-use change
emissions
>70%
48
85
21
After World Bank (2014)

15. 3. Climate-smart agriculture

17. services
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA)
landscapes
crops
livestock
fish
food system
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
policies
peatlands
seascapes
forests

18. technological
innovations to
generate
weather data
Greater focus on climate risk management
Forecasting
From satellite to cell
phone
Risk insurance
Rapid payments so
assets are protected
Productive
social safety
nets
Build assets;
protect from
extremes
That cope with
extremes
Technologies and
practices

19. Alternate
wetting
and drying
in rice

20. Integrated solutions:
Climate-
smart
villages

21. 4. Diversity as a key to adaptation

22. CSA options for food systems
food system
More creative
and efficient use
of by-products
Less energy-
intensity in
fertilizer
production
Improving resilience
of infrastructure for
storage & transport
(e.g. roads, ports)
Changing
and
diversifying
diets
Greater
attention to
food safety
Reducing post-
harvest losses &
consumer wastage

23. CSA options for landscapes
landscapes
Ensure close links
between practice
and policy (e.g.
land use zoning)
Manage livestock
& wildlife over
wide areas
Increase cover of
trees and perennials
Restore degraded
wetlands, peatlands,
grasslands and watersheds
Creating
diversity of
land uses
Harvest floods
& manage
groundwater
Address
coastal
salinity &
sea surges
Protect against large-
scale erosion

24. CSA options for crops, fields and farms
crops
Crop diversification and
“climate-ready” species
and cultivars
Altering cropping
patterns & planting
dates
Better soil and nutrient
management e.g. erosion
control and micro-dosing
Improved water use
efficiency (irrigation
systems, water micro-
harvesting)
Monitoring &
managing new trends
in pests and diseases
On-farm
biodiversity,
agroforestry,
intercropping

25. Role of crop diversity
• Outer limits of heat, drought, waterlogging, salinity ……
• Useful source of traits to adapt to changing climatic conditions
• Must look beyond our current genetic resource base

26. Priority 1: Conserving, collecting and pre-
breeding crop wild relatives
But where do we start?

27. Priority 2: Tackle the
policy challenges
• Simplified production
systems
• Seed policies that focus on
few crops/varieties
• Greater genetic resource
interdependence between
countries
• Rarely integrated into
national adaptation strategies

28. Strategic Action Plan to Conserve and Use
Mesoamerica Plant Genetic Resources
• 10 year road map
• Comprises 64 actions under 6 themes
• Covers 10 crops and their wild relatives
• Adopted by Ministers of CAC, with IICA support
• Resulted in numerous activities at country level

29. Priority 3: ‘Seeds for Needs’
Crop
suitability
Geographic
information
Genebank accession
collection coordinates
Climate
change data

30. 3. Farmers
test and
report back by
mobile phone
2. Each farmer gets a
different combination
of varieties
4. Environmental
data (GPS, sensors)
to assess
adaptation
1. A broad set
of varieties
6. Data are
used to detect
demand for
new varieties
and traits
Participatory evaluation
5. Farmers receive tailored
variety recommendations
and can order seeds

31. • Indian Agriculture
Research Institute
• Directorate of Wheat
Research
• Humana People to People
• Gene Campaign
• Ashok Sansthan
• Nand Educational
Foundation for Rural
Development
30 farmers 2011  5000 in 2013 UPSCALING (Min of Agric; GiZ…..)

32. Closing remarks

33. Example: Seasonal
weather forecasts in
Senegal
2 million farmers get forecasts
15 community radio stations
better food security outcomes

35. Towards more transformative change

36. We can do it!
Diversity and diversification
Major impacts
Transformative change
Severe targets

37. www.ccafs.cgiar.org
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Twitter: @bcampbell_CGIAR
@cgiarclimate
Increased investment
in climate-smart
agriculture will ensure
global peace, equity and
prosperity