Risk Characterization and Quantification: An
Operational Perspective on Concepts, Needs
and Opportunities for the Developi...
GLOBAL LAND RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY
IMPACTS








Use intensity and degradation of natural resources
exceeds physical...
Demand Growing, Supply
Constrained
Demand Side
Supply Side
 Growing population
 Eroding soils
 People moving from a
 D...
Precarious Global Food Situation
World Grain Production and Consumption,
1960-2011

•

Small margin between
grain consumpt...
An Era of Rising Food Prices







2007-08: Doubling grain and soybean prices - food riots
and unrest in some 60 cou...
MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
(directly related to sustainable natural resource
production capacity – RISK reduction priori...
THE IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL
STRESS ON RISK, SECURITY AND QUALITY
OF LIFE




Resource demand-induced environmental
stre...
Extreme Food Insecurity
Risk Quantification and
Intervention Prioritization

ENVIRONMENTAL
SUBSYTEM and IMPACT
(Baseline conditions)

HUMAN SUB-SY...
GLOBAL RISK PRIORITIZATION
FRAMEWORK








Food security (availability and affordability)
Water scarcity (crop pro...
DECISION MAKING
AND POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION

INDICES – performance
 Comparative Risk Assessment
 Monitoring / Evaluation
...
RISK QUANTIFICATION AND
REDUCTION
Environmental Impact and Risk - defines impacts of
development and the associated human ...
Cost-Effective Risk Reduction
Options









Agricultural-hunger-poverty nexus (availability
and affordability)
Wa...
SOME LOW-HANGING FRUITS
(Farm to Food)






Rapid productivity increases in marginal agroecological zones (Soil Water ...
New Production and Soil and Water
Conservation Technologies

INTRODUCING SUB-SURFACE WATER
AND NUTRIENT RETENTION
TECHNOLY...
SWRT: 19 - 22%
Control: 8 - 10%
1.5 to 3.0 mil
polyethylene
membranes

14”
22”
2:1
Rear view with rolls of PE membranes positioned for
installation.

Rolls of polyethylene
(PE) membranes
follow transfer tu...
Table 1. Corn yields of 353 bushels per acre were 192% greater on
Irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than on irrigated ...
Water retention membranes installed in pure sand directly
below the root zone of corn, increased cellulosic biomass
of mai...
HIGH TEMPERATURE
COMBUSTION – BIOMASS USE
SOLAR-POWERED BATTERY
AND FAN
POST-HARVEST LOSS
REDUCTION









Improve harvest technology
Storage and drying technology
Reduction of mold co...
Risk Characterization and Quantification: An Operational Perspective on Concepts, Needs and Opportunities for the Developi...
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Risk Characterization and Quantification: An Operational Perspective on Concepts, Needs and Opportunities for the Developing World

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GRF 2nd One Health Summit 2013: Presentation by Gerhardus Schultink, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Michigan State University

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Risk Characterization and Quantification: An Operational Perspective on Concepts, Needs and Opportunities for the Developing World

  1. 1. Risk Characterization and Quantification: An Operational Perspective on Concepts, Needs and Opportunities for the Developing World Gerhardus Schultink, Professor of International Resource Development and AgBio Research, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Michigan State University. East Lansing, MI 48824-1222. USA Phone: (1) 517-353-1903; Email: schultin@msu.edu
  2. 2. GLOBAL LAND RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY IMPACTS      Use intensity and degradation of natural resources exceeds physically sustainable use rates (water scarcity, soil erosion and land degradation) Environmental quality impacts (water and air quality) Regional decline in food output per capita Human risk factors (environmentally-induced health risks) Food security and nutritional impacts (incl. micronutrients) – availability, affordability, post harvest loss
  3. 3. Demand Growing, Supply Constrained Demand Side Supply Side  Growing population  Eroding soils  People moving from a  Depleting aquifers plant to animal protein  Grain yields leveling diet  Production per capita  Competition from reducing regionally Biofuels turning food  Rising temperature into fuel
  4. 4. Precarious Global Food Situation World Grain Production and Consumption, 1960-2011 • Small margin between grain consumption and grain production Trends: – increase food demand – Conversion from plant to animal protein limit food production • – One sustained drought may result in major disruption of food balance. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
  5. 5. An Era of Rising Food Prices      2007-08: Doubling grain and soybean prices - food riots and unrest in some 60 countries Prices eased slightly with global recession 2010-11: Another price spike fuel regional unrest 2012: Prices approaching record highs Food security impacts – disproportionally LDCs Corn Futures Prices Wheat Futures Prices Soybean Futures Prices Source: CME Group
  6. 6. MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (directly related to sustainable natural resource production capacity – RISK reduction priorities)         Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
  7. 7. THE IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS ON RISK, SECURITY AND QUALITY OF LIFE   Resource demand-induced environmental stress: regional scarcity of food commodities and basic needs affecting quality of life Greater impacts for regions where limited resource endowment or agro-ecological and capital constraints form the principal limiting factors in food production
  8. 8. Extreme Food Insecurity
  9. 9. Risk Quantification and Intervention Prioritization ENVIRONMENTAL SUBSYTEM and IMPACT (Baseline conditions) HUMAN SUB-SYSTEM RISK, Quality-of-Life (Changes and Trends) - Economic activity - Population impacts - Production Inputs - Goods & Services DEMAND PRESSURE - Pollution - Resource Degradation - Global Warming STATE POLICY RESPONSE NATIONAL INDICATORS REGIONAL INDICATORS GLOBAL INDICATORS - Ecosystem Quality - Resource Scarcity - Production Capacity - Environmental Quality - Health / Food Security
  10. 10. GLOBAL RISK PRIORITIZATION FRAMEWORK       Food security (availability and affordability) Water scarcity (crop productivity impacts) Environmental stress and land degradation Energy scarcity and efficiency Land access and title security Long-term climate impact and risk mitigation
  11. 11. DECISION MAKING AND POLICY IMPLEMENTATION INDICES – performance  Comparative Risk Assessment  Monitoring / Evaluation  Aggregate Impacts  Cost-Utility INDICATORS – prescriptive  Intervention Opportunities /Cost-Effectiveness  Incremental cost-effectiveness  Mitigation Policies  Thematic Risk Probability  Population Vulnerabilities  Environmental Quality  Health and Food Safety ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT APPROACHES AND RISK QUALTIFICATION MODELS  Crop Productivity / Food Security / Safety / Risk  Climate Change Impact  Hazard Identification and Risk  Air Quality / Safety - Risk  Water Quality / Safety - Risk  Environmental Impact COMPREHENSIVE DATA BASE COMPILATION  Risk Information System (RIS based on GIS structure – spatial and temporal)  Primary and Secondary Data Capture NATIONAL PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION  Problem Indicators – thematic, quantitative and quantitative measures of Quality-of-Life  Need/Risk Indicators – policy intervention needs and opportunities
  12. 12. RISK QUANTIFICATION AND REDUCTION Environmental Impact and Risk - defines impacts of development and the associated human exposure and risk      risk should reflect the broader view of human well-being or quality-oflife issue of social equity in involuntary environmental risk exposure risks include pathways of water and air pollution, environmental disease, occupational health, food safety and traffic safety, etc expanded risk equation (see also Schultink, 1992 ) as composite, spatial and temporal indicator of environmental risk R=f (r-factor, probability, vulnerability, and interventions over time) n Rn = ∑ rn x pn x vn – t i=j
  13. 13. Cost-Effective Risk Reduction Options       Agricultural-hunger-poverty nexus (availability and affordability) Water scarcity on use-efficiency Land degradation – soil erosion, - fertility and salinization Land Tenure, Use Rights, Agrarian Reform Land Grabbing – cross border interventions National land policies – cash versus subsistence crops
  14. 14. SOME LOW-HANGING FRUITS (Farm to Food)    Rapid productivity increases in marginal agroecological zones (Soil Water Retention Technology – SWRT) Food preparation using smokeless stove technology (e.g. ACE) (energy, health risk) Reduce post harvest losses (up to 60% in the humid tropics)
  15. 15. New Production and Soil and Water Conservation Technologies INTRODUCING SUB-SURFACE WATER AND NUTRIENT RETENTION TECHNOLY (SWRT)
  16. 16. SWRT: 19 - 22% Control: 8 - 10% 1.5 to 3.0 mil polyethylene membranes 14” 22” 2:1
  17. 17. Rear view with rolls of PE membranes positioned for installation. Rolls of polyethylene (PE) membranes follow transfer tubes located directly through the primary standard connected to membrane Installation device MID shoe. PE film exiting the U-shaped exit at the back of the MID shoe.
  18. 18. Table 1. Corn yields of 353 bushels per acre were 192% greater on Irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than on irrigated controls 184 bushels/acre without SWRT membranes. Cucumber yields were 146% greater on irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than irrigated controls without SWRT membranes.   Treatment  Control, no  Corn 15 inch rows Bushels per a.   Corn 30 inch rows Bushels per a.    Cucumbers Kg per acre   membranes    184 (46)* 195 (31)  19,958   Subsurface    353 (26)   269 (20)   29,040 membranes *Denotes standard deviations from the mean.
  19. 19. Water retention membranes installed in pure sand directly below the root zone of corn, increased cellulosic biomass of maize grain and stover by 350% above controls with no water retention membranes. Water use efficiency (WUE) Increased by 378%. 12 46 T/a 10 34 T/a 8 Kg/m2 6 4 12 T/a 2 0 Control Polyethylene membranes 25 cm V-shaped 40 cm bowl shaped with aspect ratios of 2:1
  20. 20. HIGH TEMPERATURE COMBUSTION – BIOMASS USE
  21. 21. SOLAR-POWERED BATTERY AND FAN
  22. 22. POST-HARVEST LOSS REDUCTION         Improve harvest technology Storage and drying technology Reduction of mold contamination Reduction of animal and nutritional losses Transportation technology Processing technology Packaging Marketing and distribution

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