A vision for climate smart crops in 2030: Potatoes and their wild relatives

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Presentation made in CIP (Lima) on a vision for climate smart crops in 2030, focussing on potato. Presented in the Global Crop Diversity Trust and CIP organised meeting on "Expert consultation workshop on the use of crop wild relatives for pre-breeding in potato".

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  • For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
  • Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
  • Challenge Program then CGIAR Research Program Theme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutes New way of working – deliberately networked
  • RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
  • RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
  • RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
  • As temperature increases, an erratic humidity, the likelihood of pest and diseases is expected to augment. Late blight is a devastating water mold that affect potato and one of the main causes of the well-known Great Irish famine. LB is climbing up the Andean highlands already. This slides shows the scenario for 2050 for Peru and the second one highlights the areas above 3000 m asl where today is virtually absent and where only poor farmers crop the land.
  • PTM is another major potato disease of global importance. The prognosis for the near future is not good, as can be seen from the scenarios mapped.
  • Collaboration with RBG Kew
  • A vision for climate smart crops in 2030: Potatoes and their wild relatives

    1.  
    2. The Challenge
    3. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
    4. Historical impacts on food security % Yield impact for wheat Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011)
    5. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing
    6. <ul><li>In order to meet global demands, we will need </li></ul><ul><li>60-70% </li></ul><ul><li>more food </li></ul><ul><li>by 2050. </li></ul>Food security is at risk
    7. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
    8. Left : Example of a silvo-pastoral system 2006 2007 2008 Ecosystem valuation Spot the livestock! Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
    9. CO 2 Fertilisation <ul><li>Enhanced CO 2 fertilisation, with great potential for some crops </li></ul>
    10. Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.
    11. Program Design
    12. CCAFS: the partnership
    13. <ul><li>Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies , and of climate issues in agricultural policies , at all levels. </li></ul>CCAFS objectives
    14. The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change <ul><li>Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation </li></ul>Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems Trade-offs and Synergies <ul><li>4. Integration for Decision Making </li></ul><ul><li>Linking Knowledge with Action </li></ul><ul><li>Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis </li></ul>
    15. Progressive Adaptation <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt farming systems, we need to: </li></ul><ul><li>Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase food production potential </li></ul><ul><li>Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level </li></ul>
    16. Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
    17. Why do we need breeding? <ul><li>For starters, we have novel climates </li></ul>
    18. Development of strategies Milestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations actively engaged in research design ; one regional breeding strategy workshop involving regional decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered in each of 3 initial target regions (2011) Milestone 1.2.1.2 Crop breeding institutions coordinated in development of climate-proofed crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions outlining coordinated plans for breeding . (2012) Milestone 1.2.1.3 Range of crop modeling approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; findings presented in summary report and at key stakeholders meetings ; including modelling approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change and the effects of adaptation technologies such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting on water availability for crops and their productivity under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013). Milestone 1.2.1.4 Detailed crop-by-crop strategies and plans of action for crop improvement developed, incorporating portfolio of national, regional and global priorities; findings presented in summary report (2015) Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set of “virtual crops” designed and assessed for their efficacy in addressing the likely future conditions in terms of the economic, social and cultural benefits expected; findings presented in summary report and journal article. Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds University), NARES scientists (2014) Milestone 1.2.1.6 Set of breeding strategies identified and socialized with funding bodies, national and international organizations , universities and other actors; findings presented in summary report and policy briefs (including percentage of total food crop production (in recent history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies) (2015)
    19. Dissemination of strategies Milestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings held with key stakeholders resulting in mainstreaming of new breeding strategies in workplans and existing breeding programs. (2015) Milestone 1.2.2.2 Global, regional and national policy briefs produced for investments in climate-proofed crop breeding initiatives (2015) Milestone 1.2.2.3 (2015) One policy briefing meeting per region based on the briefs in 1.2.2.2. Milestone 1.2.3.1 Policy recommendations provided to national agencies, policy makers and key actors in the agricultural sector on how to target strategies to enable equitable access by different social groups (e.g. pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by women and men. (2015)
    20.  
    21. Initial Analysis of Vulnerability Andy Jarvis “ Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World” Workshop ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 6-8 December 2011
    22. Climate change is not new…but is accelerating
    23. Global Climate Models (GCMs) <ul><li>21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology </li></ul><ul><li>Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future </li></ul><ul><li>Run using different emissions scenarios </li></ul>
    24.  
    25.  
    26. Changes in Average and Variability around the mean + Climate Timescale Short ( change in baseline and variability ) Long Baseline _
    27. Temperatures rise….
    28. Changes in rainfall…
    29. Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050 Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.
    30. Projected Climate: Andes
    31. DIRECT EFFECTS: elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops Leaf Processes Increased CO 2 Photosynthetic rate <ul><li>When exposed for a short period -substantial increment </li></ul><ul><li>Down regulation when grown continuously in elevated CO 2 </li></ul>Stomatal conductance <ul><li>Decreases at elevated CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Expected to increase WUE </li></ul>Leaf Protein, Chlorophyll content <ul><li>Contradictory responses, probably associated to cultivar differences </li></ul>Starch / CHO content <ul><li>Increases with long-term exposure to elevated CO 2 </li></ul>
    32. Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops Process Increased CO 2 Changes in plant growth and development <ul><li>Stimulates both above- and below-ground biomass (early growing season) </li></ul><ul><li>Period of active plant growth ends prematurely </li></ul><ul><li>Senescence begins earlier </li></ul><ul><li>Limited growth rates towards the end of growing season </li></ul>Effects on crop yield <ul><li>Tuber yield stimulated and magnitude varies with cultivar and growing conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Increase number of tubers </li></ul>Effects on tuber quality <ul><li>Increased tuber DM & starch content </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloid content </li></ul>
    33. Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops <ul><li>Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thus reducing potato growth </li></ul><ul><li>High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate photosynthates to the tuber </li></ul><ul><li>Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root, stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number </li></ul><ul><li>Offset the CO 2 fertilization effect </li></ul>
    34. INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % of potato production today would be lost to pests Major factors likely to influence plant disease severity and spread <ul><li>increased CO2, </li></ul><ul><li>heavy and unseasonal rains, </li></ul><ul><li>increased humidity, droughts and hurricanes, </li></ul><ul><li>warmer winter temperatures </li></ul>
    35. Changes in the climate are expected to produce <ul><li>alterations in the geographical distribution of species, </li></ul><ul><li>increase overwintering, </li></ul><ul><li>changes in population growth rates, </li></ul><ul><li>increase the number of generations per season, </li></ul><ul><li>extension of the development season, </li></ul><ul><li>changes in crop-pest synchrony, </li></ul><ul><li>increase risk of invasion by migration pests, </li></ul><ul><li>may cause the appearance of new thermophilic species, </li></ul><ul><li>changes in the physiology of pathogens/insects and host plants, </li></ul><ul><li>changes in host plants resistance to infection/infestation, </li></ul><ul><li>critical temperature/infection threshold, </li></ul><ul><li>modification of pathogen aggressiveness and/or host susceptibility </li></ul>
    36. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
    37. Potato Current Suitability Kiling temperature ( ° C) -0.80 Minimum absolute temperature ( ° C) 3.75 Minimum optimum temperature ( ° C) 12.40 Maximum optimum temperature ( ° C) 17.80 Maximum absolute temperature ( ° C) 24.00 Growing season (days) 120 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
    38. Potato Current Suitability and Presence
    39. Potato Current Climatic Constraints
    40. Potato Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
    41. Rop -Cumulative Top-Cumulative Potato Breeding Priorities
    42. Potato Impacts by Countries Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe
    43. Late Blight (LB) <ul><li>Warmer temperatures with some humidity in higher grounds will increase the presence of potato late blight. </li></ul><ul><li>High incidence of LB in the future (2050) above 3000 masl (highlighted in the map) where it is virtually absent today </li></ul>
    44. Potato tuber moth (PTM) <ul><li>PTM is actually present in interandean valleys and the coastal areas of the Andes </li></ul><ul><li>PTM is expected to climb as well due to climate change </li></ul>
    45. The critical role of crop wild relatives in ensuring long-term food security and their need for conservation © Neil Palmer (CIAT)
    46. Why conserve CWR diversity? <ul><li>Use: 39% pest resistance; 17% abiotic stress; 13% yield increase </li></ul><ul><li>Citations: 2% <1970; 13% 1970s; 15% 1980s; 32% 1990s; 38% >1999 </li></ul>Use!! 234 papers cited Maxted and Kell, 2009
    47. Threats
    48. Impact of climate change on CWR <ul><li>Assessment of shifts in distribution range under climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Wild potatoes </li></ul><ul><li>Wild African Vigna </li></ul><ul><li>Wild peanuts </li></ul>
    49.  
    50. Summary Impacts <ul><li>16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct </li></ul><ul><li>Most species losing over 50% of their range size </li></ul><ul><li>Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct </li></ul><ul><li>For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct </li></ul><ul><li>Vigna was the least affected of the three groups, losing 0 to 2 of the 48 species in the genus </li></ul>
    51. Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
    52. Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts
    53. CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change
    54. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change Collecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives project
    55. How well conserved are crop wild relatives? Gap Analysis © Neil Palmer (CIAT)
    56. Why Gap Analysis? <ul><li>Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused </li></ul><ul><li>Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool </li></ul>
    57. An example in Phaseolus
    58. Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic
    59. Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon
    60. Conserved ex situ richness versus potential
    61. Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic
    62. “ Validation”: The man versus the machine
    63. Model priorities versus expert priorities
    64. Taxon-level and genepool level priorities
    65. Wild Vigna collecting priorities <ul><li>Spatial analysis on current conserved materials </li></ul><ul><li>* Gaps * in current collections </li></ul><ul><li>Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas </li></ul><ul><li>8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species </li></ul>
    66. stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate
    67.  
    68. Sweetpotato Current Suitability Kiling temperature ( ° C) -0.4 Minimum absolute temperature ( ° C) 2.4 Minimum optimum temperature ( ° C) 10.2 Maximum optimum temperature ( ° C) 23.8 Maximum absolute temperature ( ° C) 30.0 Growing season (days) 120 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 100 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 300 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 1500 Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 2760
    69. Sweetpotato Current Suitability and Presence
    70. Sweetpotato Current Climatic Constraints
    71. Sweetpotato Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
    72. Rop -Cumulative Top-Cumulative Sweetpotato Breeding Priorities
    73. Sweetpotato Impacts by Countries AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe

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