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“Adoption Impacts and Access to
Innovation in
in Honduras”
José Falck Zepeda1, Denisse McLean2, Patricia Zambrano1, Arie
S...
The Honduras maize sector
 Agriculture important to the economy
 Maize is essential part of the diet
 Increasingly depe...
Honduras:The political landscape
 Favorable policy and economic
conditions
 Strategic interest in aligning
agricultural ...
Enabling biosafety regulatory approach
 Biosafety issues are handled by the Ministries ofAgriculture
and Environment
 Pr...
 GM maize provided excellent
target pest control
Bt yield advantage 856-1781 Kg ha-1
yield
Bt maize yields preferred ev...
The 2013 (second) survey to observe experiences of
conventional & GM maize farmers
Economic,social and agronomic impacts
F...
But... our data analysis shows that outliers and
sampling biases are present and relevant to
outcomes
1
3
5
11
2021 40
42
...
Maize yields and net income: raw and
sampling bias/outlier adjusted averages
Yield
(mt/ha)
Raw averages Averages adjusted
...
Summary
 Positive economic benefits of using GM
maize technology in Honduras for
current adopters
 Results of our two st...
Why is the aggregate adoption rate is low and
growing relatively slowly when the return to the
GM technology is so high in...
Why is the aggregate adoption rate is low and growing
relatively slowly when the return to the GM technology is
so high in...
Arie Sanders
Maria Mercedes Roca
Miljian Villalta
Alan B. Bennett
Cecilia Chi-Ham
Denisse McLean
José Falck-Zepeda
Patrici...
José Benjamin Falck-Zepeda, Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow / Leader PolicyTeam Program
for Biosafety Systems
IFPRI
2033 K St...
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Falck Zepeda et al ICABR presentation on the insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize assessment in Honduras for a policy roundtable 2014

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This study analyzes the socio-economic considerations of genetically modified (GM) maize adoption in Honduras and their relation to farmer’s characteristics influencing their decision making process durign crop year 2013. This presentation highlights the preliminary result from a joint University of California- Davis, IFPRI and Zamorano University study in Honduras. This is the second round of surveys conducted by IFPRI and Zamorano University in the country. GM maize has a great potential of reducing pest or weed damage and thus produce higher yields compared to the conventional counterpart. Damage reduction can lead to an increase in farmer’s income, if managed appropriately. During the last decade the adoption of GM maize in Honduras has increased steadily from 2,000 ha in 2002 to more than 36,000 ha in 2012 (Cerritos, personal communication 2014). In the case of Honduras, GM maize may contain protection for specific target insects through the introduction of the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) gene into the genetic material of the plant. A second trait is the introduction of herbicide tolerance (HT) to withstand the herbicide glyphosate which allows its application. Herbicide tolerance enables weed control without causing crop damage. These two traits may be available individually or together incorporated into the maize germplasm.

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Falck Zepeda et al ICABR presentation on the insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize assessment in Honduras for a policy roundtable 2014

  1. 1. “Adoption Impacts and Access to Innovation in in Honduras” José Falck Zepeda1, Denisse McLean2, Patricia Zambrano1, Arie Sanders2, Maria Mercedes Roca2, Cecilia Chi-Ham3 Allan Bennett3 1 IFPRI 2 Zamorano University 3 UC Davis PIPRA Presentation made at 18th ICABR Conference, 1-20 June 2014 Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya © 2014 UC-Davis and IFPRI
  2. 2. The Honduras maize sector  Agriculture important to the economy  Maize is essential part of the diet  Increasingly dependent on imports  Low productivity and heavy damage due to pests and diseases  By 2013, 75 thousand hectares with hybrids and GM 15% area planted  GM estimated around 30-40 thousand hectares Maize in Honduras is grown mostly for food/feed
  3. 3. Honduras:The political landscape  Favorable policy and economic conditions  Strategic interest in aligning agricultural policies with major economic and trade partners  Honduran government provided specific policy support for easing a transition towards biotechnologies and other technologies ‘To facilitate the process to incorporate hybrids and transgenic seeds in 25% of the area planted at the national level by 2014’ HondurasAgricultural and Livestock Ministry goal PublicAgricultural and Food Sector Strategy Relevant Honduras policy actions • Established Biosafety Framework and Regulations • Incorporated biotechnology in National Food Self Sufficiency Strategy • Coordinated a joint agricultural and environmental political agenda
  4. 4. Enabling biosafety regulatory approach  Biosafety issues are handled by the Ministries ofAgriculture and Environment  Pragmatist approach  A technical National Biosafety Committee with sound academic credentials  A clear understanding of RiskAnalysis  Focus on risk assessment only, whereas other considerations may be part of the final decision making process Only country in Central America cultivating GMOs for food BT (MON810), RR (NK603), Herculex 1 , YGVTPro (MON89034) traits approved for commercialization
  5. 5.  GM maize provided excellent target pest control Bt yield advantage 856-1781 Kg ha-1 yield Bt maize yields preferred even by risk averse producers  100% higher seed cost than conventional hybrid  Institutional issues important Photos credit: © Sanders and Trabanino 2008 Falck-Zepeda, J., A. Sanders, C. Rogelio Trabanino, & R. Batallas-Huacon. Caught Between Scylla and Charybdis: Impact Estimation Issues from the Early Adoption of GM Maize in Honduras. AgBioForum, 15(2), 138-151. Available on the World Wide Web: http://www.agbioforum.org. 2008 GM maize crop cycle in Honduras: Results from our first survey
  6. 6. The 2013 (second) survey to observe experiences of conventional & GM maize farmers Economic,social and agronomic impacts Farmers by maize type Size Total < 7 hectares > 7 hectares Conventional only 58 25 83 GM only 39 57 96 Both types of maize 11 19 30 Total 108 101 209 o We chose a representative sample of maize farmers from the main maize producing state in Honduras
  7. 7. But... our data analysis shows that outliers and sampling biases are present and relevant to outcomes 1 3 5 11 2021 40 42 56 60 68 76 77 78 84 8586 8889 90 91 92 939496 99 100101 103104 106 107 109 110 111112114 115 116 117 120 121 122125 127 129 130 131 132 133 135 136137140141 144 145 152 153154 155 157158159 161 164 166 168 170 171 173 174 175 176182 183 184185 186191 198 199 200 203 204 206 208 212 213 214 215 216 230 232 233 -20 0 2040 Robuststandardizedresiduals 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Robust_distance Observation ID Yield Cook’s D 42 6.500 0.053 84 5.200 0.385 99 7.475 0.033 116 4.543 0.039 120 9.100 0.020 121 2.507 0.022 129 2.839 0.021 131 6.500 0.688 132 3.250 0.054 143 1.817 0.028 152 5.200 1.230 155 7.800 0.036 169 1.083 0.020 170 6.045 2.381 173 0.975 0.030 174 8.060 0.032 182 0.195 0.060 200 5.200 0.033 212 7.800 0.032 217 1.300 0.020 222 9.100 0.022 230 6.500 0.026 “The classical instrumental variables (IV) estimator is extremely sensitive to the presence of outliers in the sample. This is a concern as outliers can strongly dis- tort the estimated effect of a given regressor on the dependent variable. Although outlier diagnostics exist, they frequently fail to detect atypical observations since they are themselves based on non-robust (to outliers) estimators. Furthermore, they do not take into account the combined influence of outliers in the first and second stages of the IV estimator” Desbordes and Verardi, Stata Journal 2012
  8. 8. Maize yields and net income: raw and sampling bias/outlier adjusted averages Yield (mt/ha) Raw averages Averages adjusted for sampling bias and/or outliers GM plots 5.3 4.78 - 5.02 Conventional plots 3.7 3.7 Difference 1.6 1.08 - 1.32 Estimate of the impact of sampling bias and/or outliers (%) 17 - 32% Income (US$/ha) Raw averages Averages adjusted for sampling bias and/or outliers GM plots 1774 1584 - 1754 Conventional plots 1244 1244 Difference 530 340 - 510 Estimate of the impact of sampling bias and/or outliers (%) 4 - 36%
  9. 9. Summary  Positive economic benefits of using GM maize technology in Honduras for current adopters  Results of our two studies show that GM maize reduce damage, in some cases yield 29-35% higher compared to the conventional hybrid  Production costs per hectare of GM maize are higher than HYV varieties  GM => Higher seed price but with lower pesticide use  GM maize significantly increased farmer’s net benefits per hectare  Need to address multiple institutional and policy issues
  10. 10. Why is the aggregate adoption rate is low and growing relatively slowly when the return to the GM technology is so high in Honduras?  Typical low adoption constraints Lack of adequate information and knowledge about modern maize varieties Farm size and liquidity/budget constraints Access to productive inputs  Serious problems of other kind of pests and diseases Black tar spot disease makes current GM technology less attractive for the farmers.  Seed companies’ ability to deal with infrastructural issues and producer geographical dispersion – “the scale issue”
  11. 11. Why is the aggregate adoption rate is low and growing relatively slowly when the return to the GM technology is so high in Honduras? (cont.)  Small market outlet for GM maize Maize processors linked to government programs Differentiated white vs. yellows maize markets Government/processor/producer pricing agreement tied to international prices Impact of price fluctuations (?) Policies to support the “smallest of the smallholders” Market uncertainty
  12. 12. Arie Sanders Maria Mercedes Roca Miljian Villalta Alan B. Bennett Cecilia Chi-Ham Denisse McLean José Falck-Zepeda Patricia Zambrano Sandra Mendoza. Participatory research consultant Research funded by:
  13. 13. José Benjamin Falck-Zepeda, Ph.D. Senior Research Fellow / Leader PolicyTeam Program for Biosafety Systems IFPRI 2033 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA j.falck-zepeda@cgiar.org Brief bio/pubs: http://www.ifpri.org/staffprofile/jose-falck-zepeda Blog: http://socioeconomicbiosafety.wordpress.com/ Follow me onTwitter: @josefalck

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