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Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: Ringler. ARDD2012 Rio.


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Presentation by Claudia Ringler, IFPRI, at the 2012 Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) in Rio de Janiero, Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: “Technology’s potential for addressing sustainable productivity increases’.

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Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: Ringler. ARDD2012 Rio.

  1. 1. Role of technology in achieving sustainable intensification? How to Achieve Food Security in a World of Growing Scarcity: Role of Technology Development Strategies Claudia Ringler IFPRI ARDD, June 18, 2012
  2. 2. Agricultural TechnologiesPotential to improve: Agricultural production & consumption Food security Trade Environmental qualityStalled by: Polarized debate on high intensity vs. low input Lack of understanding of the impacts of specific technologies at a disaggregated level
  3. 3. Technology Assessment Scope Global & Regional • Zero Tillage Nine Technologies • Integrated Soil Fertility Management Three Crops • Irrigation Technologies • Wheat • Water Harvesting • Rice • Drought Tolerance • Heat tolerance • Maize • Nitrogen Use Efficiency • Precision Agriculture • Laser Land Leveling • Organic Agriculture
  4. 4. Yield gap report + database Technology reports Survey results Yield gaps and How technologies impact factors causing them yield gaps DSSAT Crop modeling Impacts of technologies on yields/ yield gaps Policy environment report IMPACT modeling How policies affect technology Impacts of technology scenarios on food adoption security, trade, etc. Recommendations
  5. 5. DSSAT – Crop Modeling System
  6. 6. Management Scenarios Baseline • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate • For maize, location-specific yield discount factor due to unmanaged pest damage where Bt maize is not adopted • Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted • Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting window • Conventional tillage • Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones Technology scenarios • Specific representation of each technology • Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology Climate change scenario in 2050 • MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)
  7. 7. Crop Model Results: MaizeRainfed Maize Irrigated Maize Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
  8. 8. Crop Model Results: RiceRainfed Rice Irrigated Rice Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
  9. 9. Crop Model Results: WheatRainfed Wheat Irrigated Wheat Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
  10. 10. Change in irrigation water use by regionIMPROVED IRRIGATIONTECHNOLOGIES Irrigation was triggered whenever crop needed water (automatic). Improved irrigation technologies effectively saved water. Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
  11. 11. Linking DSSAT & IMPACTDSSAT IMPACT Technology strategy (combination of Food demand different practices) and supply Effects on Global prices Corresponding and trade geographically Food security differentiated yield and effects malnutrition
  12. 12. Percent Change in World Prices ofMaize between 2010 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  13. 13. Percent Change in World Prices ofRice between 2000 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  14. 14. Percent Change in World Prices ofWheat between 2010 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  15. 15. Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per cap per day between 2010 and 2050 Percent change from 2010 to 2050 12.0% 10.0% Reference (MIROC A1b) 8.0% Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Integrated SFM 6.0% No Till N Use Efficiency 4.0% Precision Ag 2.0% 0.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  16. 16. Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished Children 2050, compared to reference run Percent difference from reference in 20500.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5% Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance-2.0% Integrated SFM-2.5% No Till N Use Efficiency-3.0% Precision Ag-3.5%-4.0%-4.5%-5.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
  17. 17. Conclusions Agricultural technology investments—including both “advanced” and “traditional” technologies/management practices are a game changer in terms of yield improvements and national and global food security Alternative technologies increase water productivity, nutrient use efficiency, energy efficiency, and YIELD (but not everywhere). Overall gains for both people and the environment are large
  18. 18. Conclusions Suitable technologies will only “work” if farmers have the capacity (and freedom) to adopt; requires conducive institutions, regulatory framework, political will and rural infrastructure Implementation will also require increased partnerships between the public and private sectors and civil society