By S Nedumaran Research Program – Markets, Institutions and Policies ICRISAT

1. Foresight Analysis and Ex-
ante Assessment of
Promising Technologies: To
Inform Decision Making
S Nedumaran
Research Program – Markets, Institutions and Policies
ICRISAT, Hyderabad
India
Strategic Foresight Conference, IFPRI, Washington DC, & Nov 2014

2. Outline
 Why foresight analysis and what it reveals
 Assessment of promising technologies
 Case study – Groundnuts promising technologies
 Summary
 Way forward

3. Why Foresight Analysis?
Global food economy is in a state of FLUX
Growing population
Rising incomes
Changing diets
Restrictive trade policies
Climate change
Natural Resource degradation
Food crops used for bio-fuel
Higher and more volatile food
prices and increasing food and
nutritional insecurity
Drivers of Change

4. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
US$perMetricton
Groundnuts Oil Soybeans Maize Sorghum Rice, Thai 5%
Prices for Agricultural Commodities, 1971-2013
Stable and low
Source: World Bank (data accessed on 2 April, 2014)
Note: Price are in real 2010 US$.

5. Foresight Analysis Reveals!
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
'000metricton
Supply Demand
Demand and supply of grain legumes in Low Income
Food Deficit Countries (LIFDC)*
Source: IMPACT model projection
Note: Grain legumes - groundnuts, chickpea, pigeonpea and soybeans; *There are 62
countries classified under LIFDC by FAO
Projected population(Millions) under poverty in 2050

6. Goal of Global Futures and Strategic
Foresight
Increasing the yield by
developing crop varieties
with promising traits
Increased production,
reduces the prices,
increase the consumption
Reduce malnutrition and
Poverty
 To support increases in agricultural
productivity and environmental
sustainability by evaluating promising
technologies, investments, and policy
reforms
 Evaluation of selected “virtual crops,”
specifically drought- and heat-tolerant
varieties and combinations
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:
Incorporating economic effects

7. Promising Technologies and Countries of
Adoption
CROP TECHNOLOGY COUNTRIES
Maize
(CIMMYT)
Drought tolerance
Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi,
Mozambique, Uganda, the United Republic of
Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
Heat tolerance Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan
Wheat
(CIMMYT)
Drought tolerance Iran and Turkey
Heat tolerance India and Pakistan
Drought + Heat tolerance Argentina and South Africa
Rice
(IRRI and IFPRI)
Drought tolerance
Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Lao People’s
Democratic Republic, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and
Thailand
Potato
(CIP)
Drought tolerance, Heat
tolerance, and Drought + Heat
tolerance
Bangladesh, China, Kyrgyzstan, India, Nepal,
Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
Sorghum
(ICRISAT)
Drought tolerance
Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Mali, Nigeria,
Sudan, and The United Republic of Tanzania
Groundnut
(ICRISAT)
Drought tolerance, Heat
tolerance, and Drought + Heat
tolerance + high yielding
Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Malawi, Mali,
Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, United Republic
of Tanzania, and Viet Nam
Cassava
(CIAT)
Biological controls of a Mealybug
pest infestation
China, India, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic
Republic, Myanmar, and Thailand

8. Strategic Foresight @ ICRISAT-
Intro
• 5 Mandate crops
• Dryland Cereals – Sorghum and Pearl Millet
• Grain Legumes – Groundnuts, Chickpea and
Pigeonpea
• Grown in harsh environment by poor small
holder farmers
• Major constraints
• Sorghum/millets – drought, heat
• Groundnut – drought, aflatoxin
• Chickpea – Insects/pests, drought, heat, diseases
• Pigeonpea – Insects/pests, development of hybrids

9.  GFP activities integrated in CRP-
PIM
 Multidisciplinary team created
and institutionalized (14 member
team)
 Promising technologies were
identified and prioritized for
evaluation
 Collaboration with other CRPs and
Global Projects like AgMIP (data
sharing, model enhancement,
capacity building)
Global Futures Project and
Strategic Foresight @ ICRISAT
Multi-disciplinary team @ ICRISAT
•Cynthia Bantilan,
Nedumaran, Kai
Mausch, N Jupiter
Economists
•Ashok Kumar, SK
Gupta, CT Hash, PM
Gaur, P Janila, Ganga
Rao, Jana Kholova
Breeders and
Physiologists
•P Singh
•Dakshina Murthy
•Gumma Murali Krishna
Crop
Modelers/GIS/RS
ImpactAssessment

10. ICRISAT Focused Crops and
Technologies
• Crops (discussion with breeders, physiologist, crop modelers and
economists)
– Dryland cereals – Sorghum
– Grain Legumes – Groundnut
• Technologies focused based on potential of current crop model
suites available
– Drought
– Heat
– High yield potential
– Combination of Heat + drought + high yield
• During 2013-14 with support of CRP-PIM – Chickpea and Pearl
millet was identified as next priority crops

11. Evaluation of Promising Technologies: Virtual
Cultivars
 Target of the crop improvement scientists – develop
promising technologies with higher yield
PotentialYield(Kg/ha)
2013 2020
Incorporating the traits in elite cultivars
better root system
Extractmorewater

12. Crop Model Calibration and Development
of Virtual Promising Cultivars
 DSSAT Crop Model
 Baseline Cultivars selected - JL 24, M 335 and 55-437
 Location
 Anantapur and Junagadh sites in India
 Samanko (Mali) and Sadore (Niger) sites in West Africa
 calibrate and validate baseline cultivars
 Manipulated the genetic co –efficient of baseline
cultivars and developed the virtual promising
cultivars for each locations
 Drought Tolerant
 Heat Tolerant
 Drought + Heat + yield Potential
 Estimate the yield change for each technology
compare to baseline cultivars in each location
 Data source: Breeders yield trial
data; NARS trial data
 National Bureau of Soil Survey
and Land Use Planning, Nagpur
India; WISE soil database
 India Meteorological
Department (IMD); NASA
website
(http://power.larc.nasa.gov/)

13. 1171
1225
1270
1477
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
JL 24 Drought
Tolerance
Heat Tolerance Drought + Heat
tolerance + Yield
potential
Kg/ha
1228
1271
1246
1451
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
JL 24 Drought
Tolerance
Heat Tolerance Drought + Heat
tolerance + Yield
potential
Kg/ha
Step 1: Simulated Yield of Promising
Technologies of Groundnuts
Source: Singh, P., Nedumaran, S., Ntare, B.R., Boote, K.J., Singh, N.P., Srinivas, K., and Bantilan, M.C.S. 2013. Potential
benefits of drought and heat tolerance in groundnut for adaptation to climate change in India and West Africa. Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.
18%
Yield under Current Climate
26%
Yield under Climate change 2050
(HADCM3, A1B scenario)
Location: Anantapur, India; Baseline Cultivars: JL 24

14. Step 2: Spatial Change in Groundnut Yield
Baseline cultivar (Current Vs Future Climate)
Promising Technology – Drought Tolerant

15. Step 3: Technology Development and Adoption
Pathway Framework
2012 2018 2035
India60%
Nigeria40%
20372020
Research lag Adoption lag
Promising Technologies of
Groundnut development
Technology development
Technology dissemination and
adoption
Outcomes and
Impacts
• Change in
Production
• Change in prices
• Change in
consumption
• Poverty level
Nedumaran et al. (2013)
Target countries
Target countries
Production
share (%)
Burkina Faso 1.2
Ghana 1.62
India 12.99
Malawi 0.7
Mali 1.01
Myanmar 3.84
Niger 0.51
Nigeria 10.72
Tanzania 1.73
Uganda 0.76
Vietnam 1.84
Total 36.92

16. Potential Welfare Benefits and IRR (M US$)
Technologies
Net Benefits
(M US$)
IRR (%)
Heat Tolerant 302.39 30
Drought Tolerant 784.08 38
Heat + Drought + Yield
Potential
1519.76 42
Nedumaran et al. (2013)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Malawi Tanzania Uganda Burkina
Faso
Ghana Mali Nigeria Niger India Myanmar Vietnam
ESA WCA SSEA
MUS$
Heat Tolerance Drought Tolerance Heat+Drought+yield potential

17. Effects of Promising Technologies on the
Impact of Climate Change on Yields in 2050
Rainfed Maize
(Africa)
Irrigated Wheat
(S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice
(S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato
(Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum
(Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut
(Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava
(E. + S. + SE. Asia)

18. Summary
 Climate change impacts on yields are significant, although modest
relative to long-term effects of socioeconomic change and
productivity growth
 The promising varieties evaluated in this report are generally able to
offset the negative yield impacts of climate change
 The combined-trait varieties clearly performed better than the
single trait varieties
 The productivity gains observed in all of the technologies improved
the regions’ terms of trade
 All of the adopting regions would be less vulnerable to global price
shocks under these scenarios
 The global consequences of the different technology scenarios
varies by crop and technology - due to the total share of global
production and the rate of adoption

19. Limitations
 Need to evaluate potential policies and alternative technologies
under a wider set of climatic and socioeconomic conditions
 Current representation of climate change fails to capture inter-
annual variability, which does not allow testing of the
technologies under the extreme climate events
 Crop models used to capture changes in crop productivity – High
data intensive
 The global benefits of the potential technologies are sensitive to
assumptions on adoption rates; necessary to test the
technologies under a broader range of adoption pathways
 Need careful attention to harmonization of scenarios in order to
inform priority setting

20.  Evaluate the additional promising technologies (biotic
stress tolerant and management options) with current
GF/PIM Strategic foresight tool
 Provide evidence to inform priority setting for CG
centres and CRPs
 Identify and collaborate with pest and diseases
modelling team
 Gender lens in foresight analysis and technology
evaluation
Way Forward

21. Thank you!
ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium