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WHEAT - Presentation for Discussion with Donors and Partners - June 2013

  1. CRP Engagement with Donors Montpellier, 17-18th June 2013 http://wheat.org/ Victor Kommerell, CRP Program Manager: v.kommerell@cgiar.org
  2. Todays Agenda  WHEAT IDOs, Impact Pathways & Theories of Change – WHEAT research results and impact on the ground & Regional collaborations – Gender and Impact – Intermediate Development Outcomes & Flagship Projects – Next Steps to refine IDOs etc. with R4D partners  Partnerships – Current status – Next steps  Conclusions
  3. Impact pathway in action – Fighting against a threat to global food security (Ug99) Genetic discovery & breeding for Ug99 resistance (faster thru 2 breeding cycles p.a.) Improved varieties available to NARS & first releases by NARS In 5 years from 90% susceptible varities to … IDO cluster: Improved varieties onto research & farmers fields
  4. And make 6 countries epidemic-proof: Great example of IAR-NARS-Donors collaboration 2006-2008: Genetic discovery & breeding for Ug99 resistance accelerated thru shuttle breeding Mexico - Kenya) 2009: Improved varieties available to NARS & first releases by NARS – thanks to BGRI 2008-12: Seed multiplication in 6 vulnerable countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nepal , Pakistan and Iran – USAID Famine project, CGIAR W1&2, Iran 2012-13 season: 5% of national wheat area threshold to counter an epidemic is reached
  5. Bigger WHEAT impact picture: Improved varieties in farmers’ fields %WheatArea CGIAR cultivars CGIAR derived cultivars Non-CGIAR related 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% (Lantican et al., 2005)
  6. From To Stripe Review Recommends: GxMxE^I, robust metrics, cross-cutting methodologies Field scale Multi-scale NRM NRM & innovation systems & Climate Change Protocols / guides Precision Agriculture Sustainable wheat-based systems 1992: CA long-term experiment starts 1994 Rice Wheat Consortium (RWC) IndoGanges Plain: Zero tillage 2007: RWC impacts assessed / CA Hub in Mexico: Proof-of- concept for innovation & learning platform 2009: CSISA Phase 1 kicks off / MasAgro Take It To The Farmer (TTF) starts • Of 15 farming systems in areas of greatest poverty • 12 are rice-, maize- and/or wheat-based systems • Drives WHEAT Theme 2 (sustainable wheat-based systems) IDO: Sustainably grow more with less for improved livelihoods
  7. WHEAT Regional Collaborations: CSISA as model Collaboration across CRPs: WHEAT, GRiSP, MAIZE, Policy, Livestock, CCAFS, in the Indo Gangetic Plain
  8. Number of poor in wheat-based systems in South Asia Cereal systems >50% area under crop >25% area under crop Wheat systems 175 million 284 million % of total poor (ca. 516mn) 34% 55% Source: Sonders 2013; based on data from IFPRI, World Bank , FAO, UNDP: People living on $1.25 or less a day
  9. Add Precision Ag to the Systems mix IDO: Sustainably grow more with less for improved livelihoods • Wheat uses more N than any other crop (19%) • China, India and Pakistan apply 50% of all N used for wheat • Nitrogen use efficiency in LDC only 1/3 = 2 of 3 kg N applied end up in water or air • NUE in W-Europe is about 65% = twice as high; Max. NUE is around 80%
  10.  Debre Zeit Holetta   Haremaya  Sinana Awassa Kulumsa  Sirinka  Adet  Debre Birhan Ambo   Areka  Werer  Gode  Jijiga  Mekele  Alemata Gonder  Improved agronomic/IPM practices  122 improved wheat varieties released ≥ 80 CGIAR origin /cross  Yields up from 0.6 t/ha 1970 to 2 t/ha in 2012 Example in Africa: Impact in Ethiopia IDO cluster: Improved varieties onto research & farmers fields
  11. UNEP (2009) The Environmental Food Crisis - The Environment's Role in Averting Future Food Crises, Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil. Climate change brings opportunities to Africa – Changes in cereal outputs What about the rest of Africa? Wheat for Africa (W4A)!
  12. Modelling study shows: Africa can grow more wheat profitably Eight SSA countries could increase wheat production profitably to meet growing demand WHEAT for Africa conference African MoA have endorsed wheat as a strategic crop
  13. African working women drive wheat consumption  As more women join the labor force, African wheat demand grows, along with urbanization  Wheat products take less time to prepare than many other popular staples  Africa spent $US20bn on wheat imports in 2012 Dr. Nicole Mason, MSU Kinshasa supermarket WHEAT Theme 1 (better target & prioritize)
  14. Gender emphasis: Understand & Integrate Two big Challenges 1. WHEAT (rural) target regions = often paternalistic, male- dominated societies 2. Developing ALL rural talent is key to sustainable greater productivity Need for Action  Understand hurdles & identify sensible ‘entry-points’ for improving equity & equality Focal areas:  WHEAT Gender audit  Scoping Study on Strengthening Gender Integration in South Asia  Coming up: Diagnosis of gender relations in wheat production, processing and marketing in key target regions
  15. WHEAT Impacts …  An added value of wheat produced = US$ 1.3 billion by 2020 & US$ 8.1 billion by 2030  Enough wheat to feed an additional 56 million consumers by 2020 & an additional 397 million by 2030  Breaking the wheat yield barrier by 50% Expected Impact (as stated in 2011 Proposal, excerpts) Study Period covered All breeding Attributed to IWIN Byerlee and Traxler (1996) 1966-90 $3.0bn per year Internal rate of return of 53% $1.5bn per year Heisey et al. (2002) mid-range estimate 1996-97 $2.4bn per year $1.1bn per year Lantican et al. (2005)--mid-range estimate 1988-2002 $3.4-4.8bn per year $1.0 to 1.8bn per year Marasas et al. (2004)--leaf rust resistance only 1973-2007 $5.4bn net present value Evenson and Rosegrant, 2002 1965-2000 With no breeding research: 9-14% reduction in output 29-61% increase in price With no CGIAR 5-6% reduction in output 19-22% increase in price
  16. What impact? - WHEAT re-assessed partner priorities among NARS, extension, seed companies and farmer organizations Type of Impact Food: Increasing demands for food met. Stable food prices for poor consumers Food and Environment: More sustainable & resilient farming systems, despite climate impact Environment: Increased production through higher yields and better stress resistance Poverty reduction and equity: Poverty and malnutrition are reduced (women and children) Poverty reduction and equity: Better access to cutting-edge technologies (role of private sector) Capacity: A new generation of scientists and other professionals Ranking (based on no of points) 1st (1255) 2nd (1084) 2nd (1021) 4th (788) 3rd (940) 1st (1312) 1st/1st or 2nd choice (no of partners) 24 7 9 4 6 15 74 responses to Partner Priorities Survey
  17. Generating impact by delivering on an integrated set of Flagship Products
  18. WHEAT Flagship products matched with generic IDOs SI 5 – Durable Pest & Disease resistance SI 6 – Enhanced Heat & Drought Tolerance SI 7 – Breaking the Yield Barrier SI4ProductiveWheat Varieties SI9SeedsofDiscovery FARMERS SI 10 Strengthening Capacities SI 1 Technology Targeting for Greatest Impact Comprehensive Wheat Improvement Systems: on Field & Farm Adoption & Use SI 2 – Sustainable Wheat-based System SI 3 – Nutrient- and Water-use Efficiency SI 8 - More and better Seed IDOs: NRM productivity, systems, environmental, livelihoods, innovation IDOs: future options, productivity (carbon) IDOs: Productivity, environment, risk mgt (nutrition)
  19. WHEAT Flagship clusters make IDOs possible SI 5 – Durable Pest & Disease resistance SI 6 – Enhanced Heat & Drought Tolerance SI 7 – Breaking the Yield Barrier SI4ProductiveWheat Varieties SI9SeedsofDiscovery FARMERS SI 10 Strengthening Capacities SI 1 Technology Targeting for Greatest Impact Comprehensive Wheat Improvement Systems: on Field & Farm Adoption & Use SI 2 – Sustainable Wheat-based System SI 3 – Nutrient- and Water-use Efficiency SI 8 - More and better Seed Sustainably grow more with less for improved livelihoods Frontier genetic research: Novel diversity & break the yield barrier Improved varieties onto research & farmers fields
  20. ResearchStrategy1:Sustainablygrowmorewithless forimprovedlivelihoods • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO1 Rural Poverty SLO2 Food Security • IDO 1. Accelerated varieties release scaled out IDO 2. Farmers minimise unsustainable effects on soil, environment & improve their household income & livelihoods IDO 3. Farmers have more & better access to quality seed & use them ResearchStrategy2:Improvedvarietiesontoresearch andfarmer’sfields • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO2 Food Security SLO3 Nutrition & Health SLO1 Rural Poverty • IDO 1. Accelerated varieties release scaled out IDO4. Smallholders’ modern wheat varieties adoption translates into higher, more stable yields in WHEAT target regions ResearchStrategy3:FrontierGeneticResearchfornovel diversity&breakingtheyieldbarrier • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO2 Food Security SLO4 Sustainability • IDO 5. Faster & more significant genetic gains in breeding programs worldwide, using more effective approaches for complex traits Five Wheat IDOs
  21. Next: Refine IDOs with R4D partners Why?  Partners are at the interface of generating impact  Partner performance influences speed and extent of impact What/How?  Use “6 Questions” approach to link outputs to outcomes  Identify necessary R4D partners and ‘required actors’  Spell out assumptions made; define criteria for assessing performance  Detail linkages with other CRPs: What kind? Which projects?  Use Partner Priorities Survey responses to define IAR4D role When?  Sept 2013: WHEAT-Stakeholder Committee reviews and approves approach to partner engagement  March 2014: Main agenda for WHEAT General Meeting (linked to Borlaug 100 event)
  22. Partner Priorities among WHEAT Themes Theme 1 Better target, pr ioritise 2 wheat systems 3 precision agri (WUE, NUE) 4 better varieties 5 pests & diseases 6 heat & drought 7 break yield barrier 8 more and better seed 9 Seeds of Discover y 10 Cap Dev Priority for own instit. 4th 3rd 3rd 1st 2nd 2nd 4th 4th 4th 3rd Priority for IAR 4th 3rd 4th 1st 1st 2nd 4th 4th 4th 3rd Divergence of partner and donor perceptions Interpretation and use of results?
  23. 24 Fundamental Agri Research Applied Agri Research Socioeconomic research Environmental research Policy-related WHEATs different kinds of partners ... CRP composed of Strategic Research Initiatives (SI), … Research Design Stage Research Activities Stage Outputs Stage Outcomes Stage Impact Stage Extension agents university research partners WYN: ARI’s worlwide Different kinds of R4D partners; per project, mainly bilaterally funded & ‘continuous partners’ Research Partners (upstream) Development Partners (downstream) Competitive Partner Grants Wheat Int’l Trials Cooperators (NARS) – IWIN: 622 collaborators MasAgro Take It to the Farmer; CSISA innovation system partners Steering partners (on WHEAT-MC: ICARDA, BBSRC, ICAR, GRDC) For special, ex- ante studies
  24. 620 cooperators want WHEAT germplasm on an annual basis: Growing demand!
  25. CGIAR Partner Perception Survey: WHEAT compared to other CRPs 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mean All CRPs Max Score WHEAT Score Global expertise High caliber staff High quality research Innovation Facilitating access to research Relevant research / Research results in outputs Response to clients, credit sharing and communication R4D partners want to see WHEAT improve on “involving partners in decisions” and “sharing credit”
  26. Partnership realities and desired future Now In Future 27  Funds: W1/2 & bilateral flow-thru + extra Partner Budget (Competitive Partner Grants)  CIMMYT and ICARDA partner on program management & research delivery  Program Management Partners – Internal: CIMMYT, ICARDA – External: BBSRC, GRDC, ICAR  Steering Partners – Broader partner involvement in strategy dev: Launch Conference & Partner Priorities Survey  Better know, evaluate our partners, act on that knowledge – Different & better (not more) partners – Spend more time/effort on p’ship relationship mgt  Partners’ perspective: Make clearer how partners will be involved at different levels (research priorities, design, delivery) – Driven by adjusting Themes’ project portfolio to national/regional priorities – More joint fundraising
  27. Donors who make partnering possible Selected; from 59 active grants in 2012, of which 20 are funded by W1&2 SAGARPA (Mexico MoA) CAAS & NFSC, China CGIAR Fund BMZ/GIZ (Germany) USDA & USAID GRDC & ACIAR (AU) Harvest Plus (CRP4) Generation Challenge Program ICAR, India AAREOO, Iran JIRCAS & MoFA, Japan BMGF, Syngenta Foundation & Agrovegetal
  28. Way Forward for WHEAT
  29. ResearchStrategy1:Sustainablygrowmorewithless forimprovedlivelihoods • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO1 Rural Poverty SLO2 Food Security • IDO 1. Accelerated varieties release scaled out IDO 2. Farmers minimise unsustainable effects on soil, environment & improve their household income & livelihoods IDO 3. Farmers have more & better access to quality seed & use them ResearchStrategy2:Improvedvarietiesontoresearch andfarmer’sfields • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO2 Food Security SLO3 Nutrition & Health SLO1 Rural Poverty • IDO 1. Accelerated varieties release scaled out IDO4. Smallholders’ modern wheat varieties adoption translates into higher, more stable yields in WHEAT target regions ResearchStrategy3:FrontierGeneticResearchfornovel diversity&breakingtheyieldbarrier • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO2 Food Security SLO4 Sustainability • IDO 5. Faster & more significant genetic gains in breeding programs worldwide, using more effective approaches for complex traits Way forward: Partnerships for IDO Impact Faster Global Breeding Platform Global Phenotyping Platform Wheat Yield Network based on MEXIPLAT Platform Heat & Drought Consortium Coalition for Wheat for Africa (W4A) Regional, multi- hub & - stakeholder R4D programs Seeds of Discovery
  30. Training population • Genotyping • Phenotyping GS model • Estimating marker effects Target population • Genotyping only • Estimating GEBVs • Selection • Intercrossing update Way forward: Genomics enables faster breeding success Improved varieties onto research & farmers fields
  31. Way forward: Collaboratively fight major pests and diseases Example: Fusarium Head Blight is global problem, so bundle global R4D resources Build Global Pests & Diseases Observatory and Early Warning System Improved varieties onto research & farmers fields
  32. Wheat needs to beat the heat: Photosynthetic Efficiency (WYN)Frontier genetic research: Novel diversity & break the yield barrier Food security of 1 billion people in South Asia affected by climate change >> accelerating food price inflation
  33. Ways Forward for WHEAT Phase I: 2012-14 Phase II: 2015- 2020 Phase III

Editor's Notes

  1. Release of a new variety is usually slow and subject to tough criteria that vary from country to countryFunded by the USAID Famine Fund, six countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nepal & Pakistan) embraced a quicker production method and sowed 52 hectares with 11 varieties, producing nearly 145 tons of Ug99 resistant seed in the 2008-09 crop cycleIn parallel, Iran planted 34,000 hectares and produced 80,000 tons of Ug99 resistant wheat seedAll countries repeated this in 2009-10. The 7 countries combined have sown over 47,000 hectares, yielding 118,000 tons of improved seedBangladesh, Egypt, and Iran had enough Ug99-resistant seed in 2012 to sow at least 5% of their national wheat area (1 ha of wheat produces enough seed to sow 20 hectares, so 5% is safeguard threshold for replacing susceptible varieties in case of a Ug99 outbreak)
  2. HJB: You need to stay that this was an incredible achievementWhen BGRI started in 2005/06 90% of all wheat varieties grown worldwide and more than 80% of CGIAR’s germplasm was susceptible to Ug 99. In 5 years CIMMYT and partners developed resistant germplasm and released it in these countries and are now grown on a significant area. Very few if any wheat program world wide would be positioned to achieve this. Only CIMMYT with two full breeding cycles / year could achieve this.You may consider inserting a slide explaining the shuttle system – very simple – i.e. 2 cycles / yearVictor you may use this instead as it also includes countries not included in USAID porject (India and Kenya)
  3. Release of a new variety is usually slow and subject to tough criteria that vary from country to countryFunded by the USAID Famine Fund, six countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nepal & Pakistan) embraced a quicker production method and sowed 52 hectares with 11 varieties, producing nearly 145 tons of Ug99 resistant seed in the 2008-09 crop cycleIn parallel, Iran planted 34,000 hectares and produced 80,000 tons of Ug99 resistant wheat seedAll countries repeated this in 2009-10. The 7 countries combined have sown over 47,000 hectares, yielding 118,000 tons of improved seedBangladesh, Egypt, and Iran had enough Ug99-resistant seed in 2012 to sow at least 5% of their national wheat area (1 ha of wheat produces enough seed to sow 20 hectares, so 5% is safeguard threshold for replacing susceptible varieties in case of a Ug99 outbreak)Progress in seed multiplication of new Ug99 resistant varieties by public and private seed sectors & progressive farmers in 6 countries supported by the USAID funds SI 4/8 Impact from seed program. USAID provided CIMMYT and ICARDA 5.4 mlln $ and this allowed fast track promotion of Ug 99 resistant varieties. Except for Pakistan as of next year the critical mark of 5% under Ug 99 resistant varieities is achieved. 5% is a crticial mark since in case of an epidemic, the 5% would allow to provide farmers seed of a resistant varieity (multiplication factor is roughly 20, so if 5% are sown with resistant varieities they could provide seed for 20x greater area.
  4. Ethiopia is a key example of how fast susceptible varieties can be replaced – once farmers suffered from an epidemic. 2010/11 Ethiopia had a major YR epidemic and this made farmers ask for seed of new varieties and the Ethiopian system responded.
  5. http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/projected-changes-in-cereal-productivity-in-africa-due-to-climate-change-current-climate-to-2080_e3c4
  6. *under 100% of the recommended levels of fertilizer use (kg/ha)
  7. MSU International Development Working Paper 127 December 2012
  8. Best bet: Mainstream relevant gender research into proposal development, by providing practical consulting (what to research, how, who can do, what does it cost)And: Use W1&2 to build capacity among staff/partners & build networksAnd: What can WHEAT do together with other CRPs?But: Mainstreaming gender research & building capacity = additional time/effort & new kinds of partnersAnd: Shifting (more) funds towards gender within W1&2 budget not an option
  9. 74 = 35 AgriRes, 27 AgriRes&Extension, 7 Seed Cos, 3 Farmers Rep
  10. Can this slide be made easier – too much info
  11. Baseline: WHEAT Proposal Outcome descriptions & Generic IDOsHow do you know this outcome has been achieved?To which Theme or Themes‘ outputs does this outcome relate? What is the connecting story?What influence does WHEAT with all its partners have on making this outcome happen? (CoI analysis)What (conditions, factors, requirements) and who (type of partners & actors) is critical to making this outcome happen?What are the key hurdles, risks to making this outcome happen? (assess likelihood, impact)Need to revise is-outputs or outcome statements? (rephrase, combine, strike ..)
  12. Another message to the CG – what clients want is better wheat varieties – what the CG pushes is policy and system research I am surprised the indiv. Institute and IAR priorities are identical – e.g. seeds of discovery may not have been linked with pre-breeding which I am sure many would prioritizie for WHEAT
  13. Map shows 620 cooperators, who send back data to CIMMYT or ICARDA. Not all nursery sites are shown, as some points are national coordinators, who distribute germplasm to further sites. Cooperators who receive WHEAT germplasm, but do not send back data, are not shown.
  14. Just a suggestion – Highlighted are areas CRP WHEAT was scored highest – for all above mean – instrad of using excel sheet at end of presentation –
  15. Release of a new variety is usually slow and subject to tough criteria that vary from country to countryFunded by the USAID Famine Fund, six countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nepal & Pakistan) embraced a quicker production method and sowed 52 hectares with 11 varieties, producing nearly 145 tons of Ug99 resistant seed in the 2008-09 crop cycleIn parallel, Iran planted 34,000 hectares and produced 80,000 tons of Ug99 resistant wheat seedAll countries repeated this in 2009-10. The 7 countries combined have sown over 47,000 hectares, yielding 118,000 tons of improved seedBangladesh, Egypt, and Iran had enough Ug99-resistant seed in 2012 to sow at least 5% of their national wheat area (1 ha of wheat produces enough seed to sow 20 hectares, so 5% is safeguard threshold for replacing susceptible varieties in case of a Ug99 outbreak)
  16. A new approach that seems promising to improve the response to selection for quantitative traits is genomic selection.Genomic selection use marker data across the whole genome to predict any trait with an accuracy hopefully sufficient to allow selection on that prediction alone.GS estimates marker effects on a bases of a genotyped and phenotyped training populations and selects favorable individuals based on genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs).
  17. WHEAT does not attempt to convert wheat from C3 to C4
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