2. What
happened
in
Durban?
28th
of
November
–
11th
of
December
2011
Green
Drinks
Hangzhou
9th
of
January
2012
By
Lara
Esser

3. UN
Secretary
General
Ban
Ki-­‐moon:
• future
of
our
planet
is
at
stake
and
the
survival
of
some
naAons
• second
commitment
period
under
the
Kyoto
Protocol
important,
so
no
gap
in
climate
policy

4. Who
aDended?
• RepresentaAves
of
the
world's
governments,
internaAonal
organizaAons
and
civil
society
• 12,400
parAcipants
• 5,400
government
officials
• 5,800
UN
body
representaAves,
internaAonal
governmental
and
civil
society
organizaAons
• 1,200
members
of
media
And
why?

5. Conference
Sessions
• The
17th
Conference
of
the
ParAes
(COP)
of
UNFCCC
• The
7th
Conference
of
the
ParAes
serving
as
the
MeeAng
of
the
ParAes
to
the
Kyoto
Protocol
(CMP)
– The
35th
session
of
the
Subsidiary
Body
for
ImplementaAon
(SBI),
– The
35th
session
of
the
Subsidiary
Body
for
ScienAfic
and
Technological
Advice
(SBSTA),
–
The
Ad
Hoc
Working
Group
on
Further
Commitments
for
Annex
I
ParAes
under
the
Kyoto
Protocol
(AWG-­‐
KP)
– The
Ad
Hoc
Working
Group
on
Long-­‐term
CooperaAve
AcAon
under
the
ConvenAon
(AWG-­‐LCA.)
• The
Conference
was
hosted
by
the
Government
of
South
Africa
and
took
place
at
the
InternaAonal
ConvenAon
Centre
(ICC)
&
Durban
ExhibiAon
Centre
(DEC).
Just
joking!

6. Let’s
start
from
the
beginning…
Part
A
• Status
of
our
planet
• Climate
change,
and
why
we
should
we
care?
• Concept
of
Sustainable
Development
Part
B
• History
of
UNFCCC,
Kyoto
Protocol
• Clean
Development
Mechanism
• Durban
results

7. Future
of
our
Planet
More
land
More
water
Coal,
gas,
Hydropower
nuclear?
Renewable
More
energy
Wind,
solar
energy
Energy
efficiency
Biomass
More
land
More
financial
PopulaAon
More
water
support
growth
More
food
More
intensive
land
use
More
clean
water
More
need
for
Less
free
Less
natural
natural
ecosystem
environment
resources
services

8. Climate
Change
below
2C?

9. Issues
+
Climate
Change
Water
Least
Developed
Countries
Food
Pop
Energy
Emerging
countries
Money
Developed
countries
Developing
countries
Land
Principle:
Common
but
differenVated
responsibility
Principle:
Polluter
pays

10. Least
Good
to
know…
Developed
Countries
• G77
(previously),
now:
Emerging
Developed
• Africa
group,
or
Southern
countries
Money
countries
Africa
Development
Community,
Economic
Community
of
Central
Africa
States
…
Developing
countries
• BASIC
=
Brazil,
South
Africa,
India,
China
ALBA
=
Bolivarian
Alliance
for
• LDC
Group
=
Least
the
Peoples
of
Our
America
Developed
Countries
EIG
=
Environmental
Integrity
• AOSIS
=
Alliance
of
Small
Group
Islands
States
CoaliVon
of
Rainforest
NaVons

11. Concept
of
Sustainable
Development
Sustainable
development
is
development
that
meets
the
needs
of
the
present
without
compromising
the
ability
of
future
genera8ons
to
meet
their
own
needs.

12. Climate
Change
• Al
Gore’s
“An
Inconvenient
Truth”
(film)
• “Global
warming”
OR
“climate
change”
• Globally,
14
of
the
past
15
years
have
been
the
warmest
on
record.
• Global
average
temperature
rise
puts
approximately
20-­‐30%
of
plant
and
animal
species
at
increased
risk
of
exAncAon
• 1000
of
1100
glaciers
researched
are
receding
• Floods
and
droughts
will
become
more
common
• Rainfall
in
Ethiopia,
where
droughts
are
already
common,
could
decline
by
10%
over
the
next
50
years
• The
Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change
(IPCC)
predicts
that
by
2020,
75-­‐250
million
people
in
Africa
will
be
exposed
to
increased
water
stress
due
to
climate
change.
• ANIMAL
AND
PLANT
EXTINCTION
RISKS,
INCREASED
SEA
LEVEL
• MORE
EXTREME
EVENTS
(floods
and
droughts)

13. Climate
and
Forests
Tropical
forest
destrucAon
is
responsible
for
up
to
1/5
of
global
greenhouse
gas
(GHG)
emissions
–
more
than
emissions
from
all
the
world’s
cars,
planes
and
trains
put
together.
Stop
forest
destrucVon!
Forests
are
“carbon
sinks”

14. Lucky
that’s
not
you…

15. And
that’s
not
you…

16. India:
Sea
Level
Rise
and
People
in
Sundarbans.
"Over
the
past
twenty
years,
I
have
lost
my
house
about
seven
to
eight
Vmes".

17. Climate
change
means
more
extreme
events
:
e.g.
higher
precipitaVon,
i.e.
rain
which
can
lead
to
flooding
See:
Thailand
2011
And
you’re
not
here…

18. Climate
Change
and
Economy
• Climate
change
is
increasing
the
frequency
and
intensity
of
extreme
weather,
causing
a
sharp
upswing
in
damages.
• In
2005,
natural
catastrophes
caused
USD
220
billion
worth
of
damage
worldwide.
• The
German
InsAtute
for
Economic
Research
esAmates
that
if
nothing
is
done
to
curb
greenhouse
gas
emissions,
annual
economic
damages
could
reach
USD
20
trillion
by
2100.
• If
climate
protecAon
policies
were
to
be
implemented
NOW,
this
could
limit
the
temperature
increase
to
2°C
and
eliminate
more
than
half
of
the
damages;
by
2100
this
would
avoid
USD
12
trillion
in
annual
damages
by
spending
USD
3
trillion
per
year
on
climate
protecAon.

19. Part
B
• History
of
UNFCCC
• Kyoto
Protocol
• Clean
Development
Mechanism
• Durban
results

20. History
1992
–
2012
20
years!
• 1992
Earth
Summit
in
Rio
de
Janeiro,
Brazil
– “global
warming”
due
to
human
acAviAes
– United
NaAons
Framework
ConvenAon
for
Climate
Change
(UNFCCC)
– Framework
for
acAon
to
stabilize
greenhouse
gas
emissions
in
the
atmosphere
to
avoid
“dangerous
anthropogenic
interference”
with
the
climate
system
– Non-­‐binding
commitment
by
industrialized
countries
(Annex
I
of
UNFCCC)
to
reduce
emissions
of
GHG
to
1990
levels
by
2000.
• 1994
UNFCCC
into
force

21. • 1995
1st
Conference
of
ParAes
(COP)
– annual
meeAng
of
the
countries
who
raAfied
UNFCCC
– NegoAaAon
of
a
Protocol
to
set
Aghter
legally
binding
targets
for
reducing
GHG
emission
• 1997
3rd
COP
in
Kyoto
– Industrialized
Annex
B
countries
reduce
emissions
by
on
average
5.2%
below
1990
levels
over
first
commitment
period
2008-­‐2012,
with
specific
targets
for
each
country
– 3
flexible
market-­‐based
mechanisms
were
designed:
• InternaAonal
Emissions
Trading
(ET)
• Joint
ImplementaAon
(JI)
• Clean
Development
Mechanism
(CDM)
• 2001
Marrakech
Accords
operaAonalized
CDM
– Established
ExecuAve
Board
to
oversee
CDM
and
“project
cycle”
• 2005
Kyoto
Protocol
entered
into
force
– raAfied
by
all
Annex
B
countries
except
the
US

22. Flexible
Market
Mechanism
-­‐
CDM
– Idea:
a
country
can
purchase
UN-­‐accredited
carbon
credits
from
other
countries
to
reduce
GHG
emissions
in
their
own
territory
– Carbon
credits
=
“CerVfied
Emission
ReducVons”,
CERs)
come
from
emission
reducAon
or
sequestraAon
projects
in
developing
countries
without
emission
targets.
– Win-­‐win
situaVon
• developing
countries
can
aDract
investment
+
technology
• industrialized
countries
can
reduce
GHG
cheaper

23. CDM
Projects
• Developed
countries
that
are
part
of
the
Kyoto
Protocol
are
legally
bound
to
reduce
their
GHG
emissions
• They
can
pay
for
carbon
credits
from
projects
in
developing
countries
(“CDM
projects”)
that
will
reduce
GHG
emissions
• I.e.
GHG
emissions
are
reduced/saved
in
a
developed
country
but
count
towards
reaching
the
target
in
a
developing
country
• To
be
registered
under
the
CDM,
a
project
has
to
be
‘addi8onal’
and
sustainable
development
Sewage
/
Bio-­‐fuels
Heavy
Industry
wastewater
Forestry

24. No
more
binding
Rio
1992
–
Earth
emission
Summit
-­‐
reducAon
UNFCCC
targets
31.12.2012
End
Kyoto
1995
?
of
Kyoto
COP1
Protocol
20
years
on
June
2012
Rio20+
Durban
2011
CLIMATE
CHANGE
2005
Kyoto
conAnues
Protocol
into
COP17
force
unAl
2012
Copenhagen
Bali
2007
AcAon
2009
Plan
towards
COP15
Copenhagen

25. MeeVngs
• 2007
Bali,
COP13,
CMP3
–
Bali
AcAon
Plan
– Focus
on
key
elements
of
long-­‐term
cooperaAon:
miAgaAon,
adaptaAon,
finance,
technology,
shared
vision
– Roadmap
in
Bali
set
a
deadline
for
concluding
negoAaAons
in
December
2009
in
Copenhagen
• 2008
Poznan,
Poland

26. Pre-­‐MeeVngs
• Bangkok
Sept/Oct.
2009
UNFCCC
MeeAng
• Barcelona
Nov.
2009
UNFCCC
MeeAng

27. Copenhagen,
Denmark
• December
2009
• High
expectaAons,
great
disappointment,
hoping
to
achieve
ambiAous
legally
binding
targets
for
countries
•
Disputes
over
transparency
and
process,
e.g.
informal
discussions,
e.g.
including
China
but
excluding
US
Adverts
with
heads
of
state
placed
all
over
Copenhagen
Airport
by
the
global
coaliAon,
tcktcktck.org
&
Greenpeace
calling
on
world
leaders
to
secure
a
fair,
ambiAous
and
binding
deal
at
the
Copenhagen
Climate
Summit.

28. Head’s
of
State
–
Copenhagen
Int’l
Airport

29. Copenhagen
2009
ProjecAon
on
the
Danish
Parliament
building
where
more
than
100
heads
of
state
were
due
to
dine
with
the
Danish
Queen
during
the
Copenhagen
climate
summit.
Greenpeace
China
projects
a
message
onto
Yong
Ding
Gate

30. Cancun,
Mexico
2010
• Cancun
Agreements
• Along
both
UNFCCC/Kyoto
Protocol
tracks
• Under
convenAon
track:
– deep
cuts
in
global
emissions
to
limit
average
temp.
rise
to
2C
– took
note
of
targets
and
naAonally
appropriate
miAgaAon
acAons
(NAMAs),
decisions
addressed
deforestaAon,…
– Technology
Mechanism
– Green
Climate
Fund
(GCF),
jointly
mobilize
US$100
billion
per
year
by
2020
– Recognized
commitment
to
provide
US$
30
billion
finance
2010-­‐2012
by
developed
countries
• Under
Protocol
track:
– ensure
no
gap
between
1st/2nd
Kyoto
commitment
period

31. PoliVcians
2011

32. ExpectaVons
by
NGOs
• Ensure
a
peak
in
GHG
emissions
by
2015
• Ensure
that
the
Kyoto
Protocol
conVnues
&
provide
a
mandate
for
a
comprehensive
legally
binding
deal
(KP2)
• AdopAon
of
a
roadmap
towards
a
wider
global
climate
change
regime
• Deliver
the
necessary
finance
to
tackle
climate
change,
e.g.
the
Green
Climate
Fund
as
agreed
in
Cancun
– Fund
will
receive
money
from
rich
countries
and
channel
it
to
adaptaAon
acAons
and
clean
technology
in
developing
countries
• Set
up
a
framework
for
protecVng
forests
in
developing
countries
• Ensure
global
cooperaVon
on
technology
and
energy
finance
• Ensure
internaAonal
transparency
in
assessing
and
monitoring
country
commitments
and
acAons

33. Kyoto
Protocol
–
With
or
without
you…?
Kyoto's
first
round
of
emissions
pledges
expires
awer
2012.
The
promises
apply
only
to
rich
countries,
not
to
developing
ones,
nor
do
they
concern
the
United
States,
which
boycoxed
Kyoto
in
2001.
No
Kyoto,
then
UNFCCC
with
only
have
a
voluntary
approach
for
taming
carbon
emissions.
Kyoto
seen
by
developing
countries
as
a
treaty
that
represents
solidarity
between
rich
and
poor
Discussion:
“Rich”
Kyoto
countries
are
refusing
to
sign
on
for
fresh
commitments,
saying
this
would
be
unfair
if
far
bigger
emiDers,
accounVng
for
more
than
half
of
all
carbon
polluVon,
get
off
the
hook.
Chances
of
a
deal
lie
in
a
proposal
made
by
the
European
Union,
which
has
offered
to
sign
up
for
a
second
round
of
commitments
in
return
for
a
"roadmap"
to
a
new,
legally
binding
pact
encompassing
the
big
carbon
polluters,
notably
China
and
the
United
States.

34. Durban,
South
Africa
2011
• 3
UNFCCC
meeAngs
beforehand
– Bangkok,
Bonn
and
Panama
City
• 28.11.-­‐11.12.2011
• COP
17
and
CMP7
• Comments:
– “significant
poliAcal
breakthrough”
– “marathon
sessions”
– Results
disappoinAng,
lixle
progress
made
on
countries
emission
targets
– Reaching
consensus
on
a
more
inclusive
agreement
that
incorporates
obligaAons
not
only
for
industrialized
but
developing
countries
too
ambiAous

35. What
was
decided?
• 19
COP
decisions
• 17
CMP
decisions
and
approval
of
a
number
of
conclusions
by
subsidiary
bodies
– 2nd
commitment
period
under
Kyoto
Protocol
– Decision
on
long-­‐term
cooperaVve
acVon
under
the
ConvenVon
(UNFCCC)
– Launch
of
new
process
towards
an
agreed
outcome
with
legal
force
applicable
to
all
parVes
of
the
ConvenVon
– OperaVonalizaVon
of
the
Green
Climate
Fund
(will
distribute
US$100bn
per
yr
by
2020
from
public
and
private
funds
for
miVgaVon
acVons)

36. Decisions
were
made…
COP
17
Decisions
CMP7
Decisions
• Establishment
of
an
Ad
Hoc
Working
Group
• Outcome
of
the
Ad
Hoc
Working
Group
on
the
• A
report
of
an
Ad
Hoc
Working
Group
Further
Commitments
for
Annex
I
ParAes
• Launching
of
the
Green
Climate
Fund
under
KP
• Technology
ExecuAve
Commixee
• Land
use,
land-­‐use
change
and
forestry
• NaAonal
adaptaAon
plans
• Emissions
trading
and
project
based
• Work
programme
on
mechanisms
– impacts,
vulnerability
and
adaptaAon
to
climate
• GHG
,
sectors
and
source
categories,
and
change
methodological
issues
– Loss
and
damage
• InformaAon
on
potenAal
env.,
economic
and
• Forum
on
response
measures
social
consequences
of
tools,
policies,
• Financial
mechanism
for
LDCs
measures
&
methodologies
• Amendment
to
Annex
I
• Report
of
AdaptaAon
Fund
&
Review
• Report
by
GEF
(Global
Environmental
Facility)
• Guidance
on
CDM
(+CCS),
JI,
• REDD+
• Capacity
building
under
the
Kyoto
Protocol
for
• Capacity
building
for
developing
countries
developing
countries

37. “important
yes,
but
not
today”
• Adopt
a
legal
agreement
on
climate
change
no
later
than
2015!
(which
will
come
into
force
latest
in
2020)
• “first”
Ame
world’s
governments
have
agreed
emerging
economies
enter
legal
arrangements
• Not
another
mulAlateral
collapse
• Deal
despite
adverse
economic
climate
that
includes
China,
India
and
US!

38. It
can
be
done…
Canada
Costa
Rica
• RaAfied
Annex
I
/
K.
Protocoll
• AnAcipates
to
produce
95%
of
• Target:
6%
below
1990
levels
by
its
electricity
from
renewable
2012
energy
sources
by
2014
• Reality:
far
away,
now
at
30%
above
1990
levels
• Decision:
opt
out
of
Kyoto
Maldives
Protocol
in
order
not
to
pay
• Able
to
demonstrate
plans
to
fines…
meet
their
goal
of
carbon
neutrality
by
2020
Developed
countries
• Resources
for
2010-­‐2012
are
being
disbursed
so
slowly
that
on
current
rates,
the
finance
in
quesAon
would
sAll
be
being
disbursed
in
2029.

39. Durban
Outcome
InterpretaVon
• Establishment
of
a
new
body
to
negoAate
a
global
agreement
(Ad
Hoc
Working
Group
on
the
Durban
Plaoorm
for
Enhanced
AcVon)
by
2015
represents
a
major
step
forward.
• However,
with
the
the
current
reducVon
proposals
on
the
table,
we
are
aiming
to
reach
about
3.5°C
by
2100
and
not
2C.
• A
warming
over
3°C
could
bring
the
world
close
to
several
potenAal
global-­‐scale
Apping
points,
such
as:
– Possible
dieback
of
the
Amazon
rainforest,
corals
dying
– Irreversible
loss
of
the
Greenland
ice
sheets
of
many
centuries
to
thousands
of
years
– Risk
of
release
of
methane
hydrates
in
ocean
floor
sediments
further
adding
to
the
warming
– Permafrost
thawing
due
to
fast
rising
arcAc
temperatures

40. Don’t’
forget
the
target
is
1.5C
or
2C!!
Example
wording
of
a
CMP
Decision:
In
the
decision
(FCCC/KP/2011/L.9),
the
CMP
agreed
to
include
this
item
on
the
provisional
agenda
session
in
order
to
conAnue
its
consideraAon
of
this
proposal.
“
So
see
you
at
Doha,
Quatar
(COP18)
26
Nov.
to
7
Dec.
2012
Q:
Who
will
contribute
how
much
to
the
Green
Climate
Fund?

41. • “At
Durban
the
door
has
been
reopened
to
a
legally
binding
global
agreement
which
had
been
shut
in
Copenhagen
in
2009.”
• “nothing
is
agreed
unVl
everything
is
agreed”.
The
main
elements
of
the
negoVaVons
are
all
Ved,
with
divisions
of
areas
such
as
finance
and
adaptaVon
spilling
across
and
influencing
consensus
elsewhere.
-­‐
There
is
hope!
QuesVons?

42. Want
to
know
more?
• United
NaAons
– hxp://www.africapavilionatcop17.org
– UNEP
Bridging
the
Emissions
Gap
• NGOs:
BankTrack,
Greenpeace,
IUCN,
350,
WWF,
…
– Climate
Development
Knowledge
Network
CDKN
– Guide:
www.climateplanning.org
– hxp://climateacAontracker.org/countries/developing/china.html
– www.climatepolicytracker.eu
– www.nama-­‐database.org/
• Film:
– An
Inconvenient
Truth
(Al
Gore)
• Discussion
– hxp://www.weforum.org/reports/water-­‐security-­‐water-­‐energy-­‐food-­‐climate-­‐nexus
– hxp://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?Ad=90&pid=44&aid=8
– Stern
Report