Vision 2050 Parts 1-2- Dr Robin Wood- Co-creating a Viable Future on a Smarter Planet
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A 10 Part Series on how we can co-create a viable future on a smarter planet Hosted by Dr Robin Wood, President of Renaissance2, a charitable association Vision 2050 was created by a team of unpaid volunteers, so if you enjoy it please make whatever donation you can to Renaissance2 www.renaissance2.eu Thank You!
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Vision 2050 Parts 1-2- Dr Robin Wood- Co-creating a Viable Future on a Smarter Planet
- 2. Welcome to Vision 2050! • A 10 Part Series on how we can co-create a viable future on a smarter planet • Hosted by Dr Robin Wood, President of Renaissance2, a charitable association • Vision 2050 was created by a team of unpaid volunteers, so if you enjoy it please make whatever donation you can to Renaissance2 www.renaissance2.eu • Thank You! 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 2
- 3. Ten Parts Leading to a Viable Future Introduction- About Dr Robin Wood & Renaissance2 1- The Limits to Growth 6- Resilient Habitats 2- Anything is Possible 7- Enlightened Enterprises 3- Crises Accelerate Evolution 8- Human Wellbeing 4- Evolution is Evolving 9- Conscious Evolution 5- Renewable Energy 10- A Wiser Global Culture 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 3
- 4. Introduction Dr Robin Wood & Renaissance2 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 4
- 5. 2002 1972 1995 1992 Tony Blair’s Keep Sandton Creating the Borneo Policy Clean, Green Future of Rainforest Advisors- The and Serene Computing Shell Project Digital Number 10 Campaign HP Economy Policy Unit 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 5
- 7. Part 1 The Limits to Growth 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 7
- 8. Hundreds of Extinct Civilisations… 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 8
- 9. There have been many global powershifts, although theKinas ekonomi snart återis faster and more peaceful recent one störst i världen UK USA China India Share of global GDP, adjusted to purchasing power, % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1900 1930 1970 1990 2008 Source: Angus Maddison. 9
- 10. Why Do Civilizations Rise and Fall? When the fall in the energy return on investments (the energy expended to energy yield ratio) falls to a certain level, civilizations either have to access new energy sources or they will collapse.... The degree of social complexity is strongly associated with the amount of disposable energy environmental, economic and technological systems enable 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 10
- 11. We Are Now Globally InterDependent 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 11
- 12. We Are Now Globally Interconnected and Aware 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 12
- 13. The Millenials Take Globalisation for Granted 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 13
- 14. The BRICS drive global economic growth 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 14
- 15. It was 1972 when we got the first not so good news… The human footprint cannot continue to grow as fast as it has in the 20th century It is likely that sustainable limits will be overshot There is then likely to be a crisis/collapse in the 21st century as there will be delays in responding to this information It is important to act as soon as possible 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 15
- 16. Limits to Growth revisited: Population Stabilized World Comprehensive Technologies Observed Data Standard Run From: Graham Turner, CSIRO, ISSN 1834-5638
- 17. Our Footprint is Spiralling 2050 Earth’s Ecology 2.3 Earths: Business-as- Usual Economy- Economy- 1900 1700 1800 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 17
- 18. But Don’t We Have Already the Technology to Solve the Problem? 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 18
- 19. “ The overall rate of technical progress is currently doubling every decade; So, the technological progress in the twenty- first century will be equivalent to what would require on the order of 200 centuries. The twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor. ” Ray Kurzweil
- 20. W i l l Yo u D o w n l oad Yo u r Machine Soul Upgrade? 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 20
- 21. Welcome to the Future? 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 21
- 22. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 22
- 23. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 23
- 24. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 24
- 25. S u s t a i n ab i l i t y 1 . 0 7/9/2012 © Dr Robin Wood 25
- 26. Ecoregional Viability 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 26
- 27. It’s just not enough being green 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 27
- 28. Part 2 Anything is Possible 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 28
- 29. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 29
- 31. Anything is Possible…. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 31
- 32. FIRST THE BAD NEWS 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 32
- 33. OUR ECONOMIC CRISIS IS A WARNING... World GDP Estimated trend of world GDP Actual outcome (2007-2011) 8 % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Lähde: IMF WEO 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 33 16.1.2012 Märten Ross
- 34. HISTORIC EXPLOSION 9 8 OF HUMAN BEINGS Developing 7 regions Developed 6 regions regions 5 4 3 2 1 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
- 35. THE FOOTPRINT OF OUR SPECIES ON EARTH IS COMPLETELY UNSUSTAINABLE 2.5 2.3 Earths: N Business-as- u Usual m b e r 1.5 o 1.1 Earths: f Carbon Footprint Vision2050 E a r 0.5 Cropland t h Grazing land s Forest land 1960 2010 2050
- 36. RESULTING IN UNPRECEDENTED RISKS TO OUR CIVILIZATION’S FUTURE WEF GLOBAL RISK IMPACT
- 37. Global Scenarios- Many Expect Collapse Increasing Sustainability ? Business as Usual Crisis Global Collapse 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Possible Timeframe Source: H Tibbs, 1997
- 38. The Crisis is Accelerating • Extreme weather events & climate change • Depletion of key minerals & resources • 6th mass extinction & ecosystem collapses 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 38
- 39. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 39
- 40. One Possible Diagnosis 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 40
- 41. Are we just one step away from the edge, reduced to twittering while earth burns?
- 42. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 42
- 43. Thanks for Watching Parts 1 & 2 • There are another 8 Parts to Vision 2050 • They are all available on SlideShare • If you would like to buy a copy of the book on which this presentation is based, it is available on www.amazon.com www.amazon.co.uk & worldwide Plus the Guidebook To move your life into a new gear …. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 43
- 44. Thank You for Watching Vision 2050 • Vision 2050 was created by a team of unpaid volunteers, so if you have enjoyed it please make whatever donation you can to Renaissance2 www.renaissance2.eu • Thank You! • We would also like to thank everyone who contributed content to this presentation. It is published under a Creative Commons License- you are free to show this to others providing you acknowledge your source. 09/07/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 44
Editor's Notes
- Thankyou Tiia, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen! It is an honour to beherewithyoutoday in thisbeautiful city, and to sharewith a set of excitingpathwaystoward a viable future for ourplanet.The theme of thisconference: A Changing World- Anythingis Possible, not onlychallenged me to push the limits on what I consider to be possible in thispresentation, but also made me considerveryseriouslywhatis possible four decadesinto the future, whichtakes us to 2052. By 2052 I willbe 95 yearsyoung, and I am sure wewill all be able to have a good laughtogether about whatwethoughtwas impossible and turned out to becompletelydoable, and commiserate about the things and people wetook for grantedwhichwealsolostduringthis time.
- I graduatedfromhighschool 40 yearsago, and began a careerwhich has taken me around the world several times over. As someoneborn in S Africa, whogrew up in Canada and spent 20 years in London travelling all over the world consulting to global corporations and governments in 34 countries, I have alwaysfeltmyself to be a global citizen. I amdelighted to be able to addEstonia as no 35 on the list!To tell you a little bit about myselfbeforewelaunchinto the heart of the adventure story I am about to tell you, I selected four peakexperiences over those 4 decadesthatreflectsomething about the times and how they are a changin.KeepSandton Clean, Green and SereneCampaign- demonstrated to me the power of local people taking action, and the power of youth to make a major difference in the world Shell Project and BorneoRainforests- whilehelping Shell and the Malaysiangovernment design a sustainableapproach to theiroilfields, the sheer beauty of the the second largestrainforests on earth and the terrible destruction beingwrought on them by logging, palm oil and mininginterestsconfirmedmybeliefthatweneeded global action. At the same time weweredeveloping the first SustainableEnergypolicy for the World Bank. Workingwith the top experts on the global challenges wefacedwas an eyeopeningexperience. Yetdespitethis, at the time the consensus wasthatwestillhadsome time to sort this all out.Creating the Future of Computingwith HP, Intel and Microsoft- in 1995 I wasatgroundzerowhen the internet wentfrom an academiccuriosity to a world changingway of getting world changing conversations and actions happening. Havingplayed a smallrole in takingcomputing and the internet out of the labsinto the living rooms and pockets of the world, I had an epiphany- thistechnologywasgoing to trasnformwhatitmeant to behuman, much as the first Renaissance inventions and culture did 500 yearsagoduringsomeverydark times. Tony Blair- Digital Economy- Afterwriting the story of how business, science and technologywerefundamentallychangingour society and ourlives for the Economist in my second book ManagingComplexity, I wasasked to advise Tony Blair’spolicy team on the effects of the Digital Economy on the world. Suddenly the darker forces of tectonic shifts in cultures and values caused by globalisation and technology, and the fundamentalistbacklasharound the world, rose up. How couldwecreate a worldcentric, global culture and mindsetthatwaswin/win/win for all? We made someprogress, but indeed the questions and challenges are still formidable. But so are the opportunities.
- As a result of this new understanding, I foundedvariousorganizations in the pastdecade to help catalyze and align the great shift thatisunderway on ourplanet right now. Renaissance2 has been active in 30 countries throughitsevents and meshwork, partneringwithdozens of global organizations and tens of thousands of individuals to co-create a viable future on a smarterplanet.
- 2011 connectiondensity
- Trillions of global conversations- we are talking, playing and doing business across
- Geopolitics: 'Rivals will take greater risks against the US'No balance of power lasts forever. Just a century ago, London was the centre of the world. Britain bestrode the world like a colossus and only those with strong nerves (or weak judgment) dared challenge the Pax Britannica.That, of course, is all history, but the Pax Americana that has taken shape since 1989 is just as vulnerable to historical change. In the 1910s, the rising power and wealth of Germany and America splintered the Pax Britannica; in the 2010s, east Asia will do the same to the Pax Americana.The 21st century will see technological change on an astonishing scale. It may even transform what it means to be human. But in the short term – the next 20 years – the world will still be dominated by the doings of nation-states and the central issue will be the rise of the east.By 2030, the world will be more complicated, divided between a broad American sphere of influence in Europe, the Middle East and south Asia, and a Chinese sphere in east Asia and Africa. Even within its own sphere, the US will face new challenges from former peripheries. The large, educated populations of Poland, Turkey, Brazil and their neighbours will come into their own and Russia will continue its revival.Nevertheless, America will probably remain the world's major power. The critics who wrote off the US during the depression of the 1930s and the stagflation of the 1970s lived to see it bounce back to defeat the Nazis in the 1940s and the Soviets in the 1980s. America's financial problems will surely deepen through the 2010s, but the 2020s could bring another Roosevelt or Reagan.A hundred years ago, as Britain's dominance eroded, rivals, particularly Germany, were emboldened to take ever-greater risks. The same will happen as American power erodes in the 2010s-20s. In 1999, for instance, Russia would never have dared attack a neighbour such as Georgia but in 2009 it took just such a chance.The danger of such an adventure sparking a great power war in the 2010s is probably low; in the 2020s, it will be much greater.The most serious threats will arise in the vortex of instability that stretches from Africa to central Asia. Most of the world's poorest people live here; climate change is wreaking its worst damage here; nuclear weapons are proliferating fastest here; and even in 2030, the great powers will still seek much of their energy here.Here, the risk of Sino-American conflict will be greatest and here the balance of power will be decided.Ian Morris, professor of history at Stanford University and the author of Why the West Rules – For Now (Profile Books)Food: 'Russia will become a global food superpower'When experts talk about the coming food security crisis, the date they fixate upon is 2030. By then, our numbers will be nudging 9 billion and we will need to be producing 50% more food than we are now.By the middle of that decade, therefore, we will either all be starving, and fighting wars over resources, or our global food supply will have changed radically. The bitter reality is that it will probably be a mixture of both.Developed countries such as the UK are likely, for the most part, to have attempted to pull up the drawbridge, increasing national production and reducing our reliance on imports.In response to increasing prices, some of us may well have reduced our consumption of meat, the raising of which is a notoriously inefficient use of grain. This will probably create a food underclass, surviving on a carb- and fat-heavy diet, while those with money scarf the protein.The developing world, meanwhile, will work to bridge the food gap by embracing the promise of biotechnology which the middle classes in the developed world will have assumed that they had the luxury to reject.In truth, any of the imported grain that we do consume will come from genetically modified crops. As climate change lays waste to the productive fields of southern Europe and north Africa, more water-efficient strains of corn, wheat and barley will be pressed into service; likewise, to the north, Russia will become a global food superpower as the same climate change opens up the once frozen and massive Siberian prairie to food production.The consensus now is that the planet does have the wherewithal to feed that huge number of people. It's just that some people in the west may find the methods used to do so unappetising.
- If one wants to look forwardinto the future, one must stand on the shoulders of the giantsfrom the past. It was 40 yearsagothat the Club of Rome published a small book- The Limits to Growthwasbased on the modelling of scientistsat MIT on the sustainability of the growth in the global economyduring the 20th century. It’s conclusions:The humanfootprintcannot continue to grow as fast as it has in the 20th centuryIt islikelythatsustainablelimitswillbeovershotThere isthenlikely to be a crisis/collapse in the 21st century as therewillbedelays in responding to this informationIt is important to act as soon as possible
- Growth is more of the same stuff; development is the same amount ofbetter stuff (or at least different stuff). The remaining natural world nolonger is able to provide the sources and sinks for the metabolicthroughput necessary to sustain the existing oversized economy—muchless a growing one. Economists have focused too much on the economy’scirculatory system and have neglected to study its digestive tract.Throughput growth means pushing more of the same food through anever larger digestive tract; development means eating better food anddigesting it more thoroughly. Clearly the economy must conform to therules of a steady state—seek qualitative development, but stopaggregate quantitative growth. GDP increase conflates these two verydifferentthings.We have lived for 200 years in a growth economy. That makes ithard to imagine what a steady-state economy (SSE) would be like, eventhough for most of our history mankind has lived in an economy in whichannual growth was negligible. Some think a SSE would mean freezing inthe dark under communist tyranny. Some say that huge improvements intechnology (energy efficiency, recycling) are so easy that it will make theadjustment fun.Regardless of whether it will be hard or easy we have to attempt aSSE because we cannot continue growing, and in fact so-called“economic” growth already has become uneconomic. The growtheconomy is failing. In other words, the quantitative expansion of theeconomic subsystem increases environmental and social costs faster thanproduction benefits, making us poorer not richer, at least in high consumptioncountries. And even new technology sometimes makes itworse. For example, tetraethyl lead provided the benefit of reducingengine knock, but at the cost spreading a toxic heavy metal into thebiosphere; chlorofluorocarbons gave us the benefit of a nontoxicpropellant and refrigerant, but at the cost of creating a hole in the ozonelayer that protects us from too much ultraviolet radiation. It is hard toknow for sure that growth now increases costs faster than benefits sincewe do not bother to separate costs from benefits in our nationalaccounts.
- 2 extremeviews of the future:Technologicalutopia- Kurzweildownloadinghismindinto a computer. Robots etc. Whereis the quality in this future?Let’savoid the triumph of hope over experienceresulting in a catastrophe
- It isalsoequally important to consider the power of local action, and the desire for beauty and tranquillity, to becloser to nature thatwe all have. In Sandton 40 yearsago I learnedthatmankindcanalsoimplement massive changes veryquickly if we put ourminds and hearts to it. For example,most of southernAfricaiseitherdesert, scrubland or grasslandstripped of trees by wildfires and millennia of hunter gathererswhoused the wood for survival. Today, however, that has successfully been reversed by a century of treeplanting and irrigation. NorthernJohannesburg and Sandton are now one of world’slargestmanmadeforests.
- Wealwaysneed to considerat least to perspectives whenlookingat a system as complex as a planet. First of all, weneed to take a top down, globazl perspective, to see the system as a whole and to understand the emergentproperties of that system. Atthislevelduring the past 40 years, we have seen the emergence of the global environmentalmovements, as well as a massive response by the United Nations, somegovernments and some global businesses. In 1992 the first Earth Summit in Rio offered us a genuineopportunity to avert a major collapse, but as the original Club of Rome report prophesied, therewouldbeseriousdelays in implementingany major changes due to inertia, selfishbehaviour and ignorance. The 2002 Earth Summitheld in Sandtonwas an example of suchbehaviours, alongwith the Copenhagen and Durban summits, whereonlylimitedprogresswas made on the main agenda items. Wecanonlyhopethat Rio20+ thisyearwill gain the consensus needed to make the breakthroughsneeded to avert collapse.
- A decadeago I decided to walkmyown talk moreintently by movingmy base from London to a sustainableecoregion in Southeast France. I bought and renovated a derelict château, transformed the gardens and ensuredthatwewerecarbonneutral and that all ourenergywassupplied by the wind and sun. This isanotherexample of how wecanactlocally to make a difference, but itwouldtakemost of the population of the developed world to do this to have a chance of creating a viable future. There istherefore a great deal more to bedone, and the future is full of opportunities for each of us as individuals and professionals to grasp.
- So if itsjust not enoughbeing green, thenwhat? Weneed to beinspired by the insight that in a fastchanging world, anythingis possible!
- We are inspired by leaders and role models- people who show us that a different way is indeed possible. We need a very different approach to leadership in a post-modern world, in which electronically accelerated globalisation is causing the tectonic plates of different cultures and value systems to collide. The differences between the seven main global civilisations and the conflicts arising from those, as well as the strategic and economic rivalry between the emerging superpowers of the 21st centurymean we must develop leaders who can transcend and integrate multiple perspectives to create alignment in our world.
- During my life I have had the privilege of having been in the right place at the right time to have remarkable conversations with remarkable people about many of the fundamental questions facing mankind. The famous physicist Stephen Hawking once commented to me that anything the mind of man can conceive of, we can make a reality, As I have grown older and developed myself, I have discovered that this is indeed true.
- Supercells & tornadoes- no have increased- Extremely destructive tornadoes form most frequently in the U.S., Bangladesh and Eastern India, but they can occur almost anywhere under the right conditions. Tornadoes also appear regularly in neighboring southern Canada during the Northern Hemisphere's summer season, and somewhat regularly in Europe, Asia, and Australia.As of October 10, there have been 1,817 tornadoes reported in the US in 2011 (of which at least 1,279 were confirmed). 2011 has been an exceptionally destructive and deadly year for tornadoes; worldwide, at least 566 people perished due to tornadoes: 12 in Bangladesh, two in South Africa and one in New Zealand, one in the Philippines, one in Russia, one in Canada and an estimated 550 in the United States (compared to 564 US deaths in the 10 years prior combined).[2] Due in large part to several extremely large tornado outbreaks in the middle and end of April and in late May, the year is currently on record pace, with six EF5 tornadoes as of October 10, as well as enough tornado reports so far to eclipse 2004, the current record year for tornadoes, with 1,819. It is also the deadliest year for tornadoes in the United States since 1936, due mostly to the 324 tornadic deaths that occurred during the April 27 outbreak across theSoutheastern United States and the 159 tornadic deaths in the 2011 Joplin tornado.[The most extensive tornado outbreak on record, in almost every category, was the Super Outbreak, which affected a large area of the central United States and extreme southern Ontario in Canada on April 3 and April 4, 1974. Not only did this outbreak feature an incredible 148 tornadoes in only 18 hours, but an unprecedented number of them were violent; 6 were of F5 intensity and 24 were F4. This outbreak had a staggering 16 tornadoes on the ground at the same time at the peak of the outbreak. More than 300 people, possibly as many as 330, were killed by tornadoes during this outbreak. However, this record was later broken during the 2011 Super Outbreak, which resulted in 340+ casualties and had more than 330 tornadoes touch down. [4]
- Joplin Missouri after a tornado in 2011William Butler Yeats (1865-1939) THE SECOND COMING Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand; A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born? The Second Coming was written in 1919 in the aftermathof the first World War. The above version of the poem isas it was published in the edition of Michael Robartes andthe Dancer dated 1920 (there are numerous otherversions of the poem).