This document summarizes a workshop on managing hydrological extremes like floods and droughts in Pakistan. It discusses how water is central to socioeconomic development and food security. It notes that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme water events in Pakistan. The document calls for moving beyond structural measures to also implement non-structural initiatives. It emphasizes the need to update Pakistan's national water sector data and models to better manage floods and droughts under climate change.

1. TEC GWP
International Workshop
Synergy in Integration
Institutional Mechanism
for
Managing Hydrological Extremes
Naseer Ahmad Gillani
Chief Water / CEO, National Drought Program Planning Commission
Chairman, Pakistan Water Partnership

2. “O Children of Adam!... Eat and
drink: But waste not by excess, for
God loveth not the wasters.”
Al-Qura’an
“Water is the driver of Nature”
Leonardo da Vinci
(1452 – 1519)
2

3. WATER IS THE NEXUS
• Water is central to the socio economic
development.
• Food security, poverty reduction,
economic growth, energy production,
human health

4. PRESENTLY IRRIGATED AREAS AND PROPOSED WATER PROJECTS
NWFP
Disputed Territory
PUNJAB
BALOCHISTAN
AREA Presently Ongoin
SINDH
Irrigated g
Areas Scheme
s
Sindh 6.5 MA 1.0 MA
Punjab 33.4 MA 1.5 MA
NWFP 2.3 MA 0.5 MA
Balochista 2.2 MA 0.8 MA
n
TOTAL 44.4 MA 3.8 MA
4

5. Water Extreme Events: Flood & Drought

6. SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Human
Poverty Employment
Development
Alleviation Generation
Index (HDI)

7. Management Instruments
● Conflict resolution to manage disputes and
ensure equitable and fair sharing of water.
● Economic instruments – using value and
prices for efficiency and equity.
● Information management and exchange to
improve knowledge for better water
management.

8. Integration
• Floods and drought
• Extreme value events
• Dry and wet cycles
• Seasonal variability
• Climate change

9. Synergy in integration
• Meteorology science
• Field measurement
• Satellite
• Remote sensing
• Models
• Predictions
• Impact Reduction
• Recovery

10. Message
• Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) : Pakistan/Indus Basin to face higher
frequency, severity and aerial coverage of
extreme events of water availability and non-
availability (floods and droughts)
• Recent floods and droughts: our knowledge is
not enough.
• Moving from structural measures to non-structural
software initiatives.

11. Objective of the Workshop
Policy Influence: Flood and Drought
Management for Food Security
Climate Change Reaches to Pakistan Through Water

12. Focal Issues with Policy Makers
• Public welfare
• Security
• National- geographic boundaries
• Food
• Energy
• Heath
• Scio economic growth
• Infrastructure
• Trade
• Natural resources

13. Security ? Dimensions….
Stand alone
Integrated
State
Public
Society
Local

14. Security Horizons
• Conflict
• Disturbance
• Law & Order
• Institutional Collapse
• Revolution
• War

15. Impact Factors
• Scarcity
• Prestige
• Independence
• Sovereignty
• Economics
• Development
• Poverty
• Hunger
• Survival

16. Magnitude
• Survival
• MDGs
• PRSP
• Life

17. Communication strategy
• Droughts cause reduction in growth:
impacts on agricultural production and
livelihood.
• There is not much to combat or de-
accelerate the climate change by Pakistan,
mandatory is : climate change adaptation.

18. Value of Message
• Reconstruction process requires US$ 10
billion public sector investment and equal
investment by private sector.
• In the absence of predicted expected peak
flows, the time, duration, frequency and
location may cause the investment void.
• Public investment for hydraulic structures for
water augmentation may not provide the
anticipated benefits due to reduced mean
annual flows.

19. Percentage changes in annual extreme precipitation

20. Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agricultural GDP

21. Trends in Flood Damages
• $6 billion annually 1910s $ 2.2
• Four-fold increase 1930s
1920s
$ 2.0
from early 1900s $ 2.9
1940s
$ 2.4
• Per Capita Damages 1950s $ 3.4
increased by more 1970s1960s
$ 2.2
than a factor of 2.5 1980s $4.9
$ 3.3
in the previous 1990s
century in real dollar BILLIONS (adjusted to 1999 dollars)
1 2 3 4 5 6
terms

22. Need Assessment
Knowledge gaps:
 Hydrology developed by Linsley
 Hydraulic Engineering designs developed
by US System
 Hydraulic System Computation Models
produced by Netherland
 European Model “SHE”
 Pakistan UNESCO Model of rainfall run off
 All have to be revisited
 Solution specific models to be developed.

23. Impact
Climate change reaches to Pakistan through
water:
a. Threat to glaciers, water towers
b. Implications of GLOF
c. Changed pattern of monsoon, intensive rains,
flash floods, prolonged droughts.
d. Increased temperature : enhanced crop water
requirements.
e. Cyclones and sea-level changes.

24. Updating National Water Sector Data

25. Water, the Primary Medium
• Water is the primary medium through which
climate change will impact people, ecosystems
and economies
• Water resources management should therefore be
an early focus for adaptation to climate change
• Water resources management does not hold all of
the answers to adaptation; a broad range of
responses will be needed
• But, water is both part of the problem and an
important part of the solution. It is a good place to
start

26. Actions Required
1. Evaluation of the existing system
2. Learning from the South Asia
3. Learning from the Global experience
4. Updating existing/create new models

27. Moving Towards Solutions
1. Partnership
2. Linkages with Research Institutions
3. Creation of network Institutions providing
cost effective engineering solutions
incorporating software components

28. Some Concrete Suggestions
• Support improved climate information systems
• Integration of climate information into water
resource management planning activities
• Link hydrologists who are looking for practical
and sustainable adaptation solutions – get
them to interact

29. The Temporal Dimension: Timeframes,
Sequencing and Uncertainty
Focus on:
 Strengthening management information, infrastructure
 New institutions and Co-operation,
 UNESCO, WMO, DHI

30. DSS For Real Time Forecasting
Planning and Operations in a
S a te llit te
D a ta
Real Time Environment G ro u n d
D a ta
R A IN FA L L
FO REC ASTS
M IK E 1 1
M O D E L L IN G
FO R EC ASTS

31. Thanks We don’t deserve

32. By: Naseer A. Gillani
Chief (Water)