1. Page 1 of 5
Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume
The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index gained 621.03 points, or
5.22% during the week, to close at 12,520.66. Market capitalization
rose by 4.20% to reach QR676.1 billion (bn) as compared to
QR648.8bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed
companies, 36 companies ended the week higher, while 7 fell. Aamal
Company (AHCS) was the best performing stock for the week, with a
gain of 20.55% on 1.6 million (mn) shares traded; the stock is up
15.47% year-to-date (YTD). On the other hand, Qatar General
Insurance and Reinsurance Company (QGRI) was the worst
performing stock with a decline of 6.62% on only 1,079 shares traded;
the stock is down 6.78% year-to-date (YTD).
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES), Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and
Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) were the biggest
contributors to the weekly index gain. ERES was the biggest
contributor to the index’s weekly gain, contributing 159.5 points to the
index’s weekly appreciation of 621.0 points. MARK contributed 155.9
points to the weekly index gain. BRES contributed 64.6 points to the
index’s weekly gain. On the other hand, QNB Group (QNBK),
Ooredoo (ORDS) and Doha Bank (DHBK) negatively contributed
toward the QSE Index. QNBK shaved off 60.9 points followed by
ORDS (1.6 points) and DHBK (0.7 points).
Trading value during the week increased by 73.4% to reach
QR3.5bn vs. QR2.0bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
28.9% of the total equity trading value. The Real Estate sector was the
second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for
26.7% of the total trading value. BRES was the top value traded stock
during the week with total traded value of QR445.9mn.
Trading volume increased by 109.9% to reach 91.7mn shares vs.
43.7mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions rose by
49.1% to reach 40,426 transactions versus 27,118 transactions in the
prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting
for 40.5%, followed by the Banks & Financial Services sector, which
accounted for 20.9% of the overall trading volume. (ERES) was the top
volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of
20.3mn shares.
Foreign institutions remained bullish during the week with net
buying of QR144.3mn vs. net buying of QR85.1mn in the prior
week. Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of
QR43.9mn vs. net selling of QR97.6mn the week before. Foreign retail
investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR69.9mn
vs. net selling of QR9.3mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors
turned bearish with net selling of QR30.6mn vs. net buying of
QR22.1mn the week before. In 2015 YTD, foreign institutions sold (on
a net basis) ~$44mn worth of Qatari equities.
Market Indicators
Week ended
Feb. 05, 2015
Week ended
Jan. 29, 2015
Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 3,512.1 2,025.9 73.4
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 676,062.5 648,789.4 4.2
Volume (mn) 91.7 43.7 109.9
Number of Transactions 40,426 27,118 49.1
Companies Traded 43 43 0.0
Market Breadth 36:7 25:17 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 18,793.10 5.9 5.9 2.6
All Share Index 3,235.14 5.6 5.6 2.7
Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,258.24 4.5 4.5 1.7
Industrials 4,055.48 6.6 6.6 0.4
Transportation 2,435.02 4.2 4.2 5.0
Real Estate 2,511.81 11.7 11.7 11.9
Insurance 3,863.19 0.0 0.0 (2.4)
Telecoms 1,414.06 3.1 3.1 (4.8)
Consumer 7,368.98 3.3 3.3 6.7
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,392.14 8.8 8.8 7.1
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QSE)* 12,520.66 5.2 5.2 1.9 1,019.18 185,714.4 15.7 2.0 3.8
Dubai 3,886.53 5.8 5.8 3.0 1,270.27 93,718.4* 12.8 1.4 5.0
Abu Dhabi 4,608.56 3.4 3.4 1.8 366.56 127,255.9 12.1 1.5 3.7
Saudi Arabia#
9,169.20 3.3 3.3 10.0 15,661.05 529,055.1 18.2 2.2 3.0
Kuwait 6,700.06 1.9 1.9 2.5 565.62 100,978.4 16.5 1.1 3.8
Oman 6,687.76 2.0 2.0 5.4 120.26 25,235.9 10.1 1.5 4.2
Bahrain 1,435.94 0.8 0.8 0.7 8.18 53,732.2 10.5 0.9 4.7
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (
#
Data as of February 04, 2014) (*Data as of February 04, 2014)
12,062.10
12,117.70
12,279.37
12,415.93
12,520.66
0
17,500,000
35,000,000
11,800
12,200
12,600
1-Feb 2-Feb 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb
Volume QSE Index
5.8% 5.2%
3.4% 3.3%
2.0% 1.9%
0.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Dubai
Qatar
(QSE)*
AbuDhabi
Saudi
Arabia
Oman
Kuwait
Bahrain
2. Page 2 of 5
News
Economic News
QCB auctions T-bills worth QR4bn on February 3 – The
Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has auctioned treasury bills worth
QR4bn on February 3, 2015, for which it received bids totaling
QR8bn. T-bills worth QR2bn with a three-month maturity period
were auctioned at a yield of 0.86%. T-bills worth QR1bn with a
six-month maturity period were sold at a yield of 0.89%, while
T-bills worth QR1bn with a nine-month maturity period were
auctioned at a yield of 0.96%. (QCB)
Market & Corporate News
IQCD posts QR6.3bn profit in FY2014 (QR1.6bn in 4Q2014);
stock retains long-term value despite an expected weak
2015 – Industries Qatar' (IQCD) posted a 20.8% YoY decline in
its net profit to QR6.3bn in FY2014, driven by various factors
such as lower sales, extensive planned preventive maintenance,
warranty shut-downs, weak urea prices and higher operating
costs in petrochemical and steel segments. For 4Q2014, the
company reported QR1.62bn in net income (-13.8% QoQ, -3.1%
YoY) vs. our estimate of QR1.78bn. According to the company’s
trading statement, results in 2H2014 showed a significant
improvement over 1H2014, with the consolidated net profit
improving by 23.5% or QR0.7bn, with the petrochemical and
fertilizer segments registering growth of 48.7% and 31.9%,
respectively. The company’s reported revenue under IFRS 11 for
FY2014 stood at QR6bn (all steel), showing a marginal increase
of 2.5% YoY. On a like-for-like basis, management reporting
revenue, assuming proportionate consolidation under IAS 31,
stood at QR18.2bn, indicating a 5.4% YoY decline (around
QR1bn fall) in FY2014. The petrochemical segment’s revenue
declined 6.8% YoY to QR6.8bn in FY2014, while the fertilizer
segment’s revenue fell by 11.2% YoY to QR5.5bn. However,
revenue in the steel segment rose by a moderate 2.5% to
QR6bn. The consolidated EBITDA fell by 19.4% to QR6.6bn in
FY2014. On a like-for-like basis, EBITDA, under proportionate
consolidation under IAS 31, was around QR8.0bn, a decrease of
QR1.5bn, or 16.2%, versus 2013. At QR5.83bn in net income
(EPS: QR9.64), we continue to maintain one of the lowest
estimates among the analyst community when it comes to 2015
earnings expectations. Considering its recent price decline, we
realize IQCD holds long-term potential. However, we concede
that any meaningful recovery in the stock will likely come only
when optimism regarding oil prices resurfaces. We maintain our
Accumulate rating with a 12-month price target of QR178.30.
(IQCD Trading Statement & Financial Statements, QNBFS
Research)
QIGD posts QR227.1mn net profit in FY2014 – Qatari
Investors Group (QIGD) posted net profit of QR227.1mn in
2014 versus QR220.6mn in 2013. EPS stood at QR1.83 in
2014 compared to QR1.77 in 2013. The board recommended
cash dividends of QR0.75 per share. This recommendation will
be raised to the Ordinary-General Assembly meeting which will
take place at Al Mirqab Hall, Four Seasons Hotel on Monday,
23rd
February, 2015 at 4:00pm. In case a quorum is not met,
the Extra-ordinary General Assembly meeting will be held on
Sunday, 1st
March 2015 at 4:00pm on the same venue. (QSE)
AHCS reports QR577.1mn net profit in FY2014,
recommends 10% cash dividend – Aamal Company (AHCS)
reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of QR577.1mn
in FY2014, indicating an increase of 13.9% on a YoY basis.
The earnings were supported by increased net profit at its
industrial manufacturing (QR51.7mn in FY2014, up 128.3%
YoY) and trading & distribution (+32.8% YoY to QR114.9mn).
Reported EPS increased to QR0.96 in FY2014 from QR0.85 in
FY2013. AHCS’ revenue grew 0.8% YoY to QR2.14bn in
FY2014. Meanwhile, AHCS’ board of directors has
recommended a 10% cash dividend and 5% bonus shares,
which will have to be approved by the general assembly
scheduled to be held on March 16, 2015. (QSE)
GISS reports QR1.4bn net profit in FY2014 – Gulf
International Services (GISS) reported a net profit of QR1.4bn
in FY2014, reflecting an increase of 108.4% YoY, driven by
strong growth across all segments, especially in the drilling
segment. EPS amounted to QR7.59 in FY2014 as compared to
QR3.64 in FY2013. The group’s revenue stood at QR3.9bn in
FY2014, representing a significant increase of 69.7% YoY. The
group’s share in revenue from Gulf Drilling International
Company in FY2014 amounted to QR1.8bn, a significant
increase of 100% YoY. This performance was mainly driven by
the offshore sector, which contributed over 80% of the total
revenue. AMWAJ Catering Services Ltd contributed QR1.1bn to
the group revenue, and represents the second largest revenue
segment. Meanwhile, GISS’ board of directors proposed a total
annual dividend of QR1bn for the year ended December 31,
2014 (QR5.50 per share), representing 72.5% of the group’s
net profit. (Peninsula Qatar, Gulf-Times.com)
QCFS reports QR12.3mn net profit in FY2014 – Qatar
Cinema & Film Distribution Company (QCFS) reported a net
profit of QR12.3mn in FY2014 as compared to QR11.4mn in
FY2013. EPS amounted to QR2.16 in FY2014 as compared to
QR2.00 in FY2013. Meanwhile, QCFS’ board decided to
recommend distribution of cash dividends of 10% (QR1.00 per
share) and distributing bonus shares of 10% (1 share per 10
shares). (QSE)
MPHC reports QR1.8bn net profit in FY2014, recommends
QR1.1 per share cash dividend – Mesaieed Petrochemical
Holding Company (MPHC) reported a net profit of QR1.8bn in
FY2014. Management reported revenue of QR4.3bn for
FY2014 (calculated by proportionately consolidating group
results as per IAS 31). Revenue for the fourth quarter was
QR1.1bn, a decline of QR11.5mn (1.0% QoQ). Consolidated
net profit in the fourth quarter came at QR0.4bn (decline of
QR0.1bn or 12.3 % vs. 3Q2014, primarily due to a drop in
alpha-olefin sales volume and prices). Meanwhile, MPHC’s
board recommended QR1.10 per share cash dividend, which is
equivalent to 77% of the group’s profits. (MPHC Press Release)
AKHI reports QR74.4mn net profit in FY2014 – Al Khaleej
Takaful Group (AKHI) posted a net profit of QR74.4mn in
FY2014 as compared to QR66.1mn in FY2013. EPS of QR3.35
in FY2014 as compared to QR2.98 in FY2013. Meanwhile,
AKHI’s board recommended cash dividend of 15% on the share
par value, i.e. QR1.50 for each share, as well as 15% bonus
shares. (QSE)
VFQS becomes fully Shari’ah-compliant – Vodafone Qatar
(VFQS) has completed the process to become a fully Shari’ah-
compliant company. Professor Dr. Ali Qaradaghi,
commissioned by VFQS’s board of directors with the
responsibility of transforming the company into fully Shari’ah-
compliant said VFQS successfully refinanced its conventional
interest-bearing borrowings with a Shari’ah-compliant ‘wakala’
investment agreement in December. The transition was
completed in accordance with the current, effective laws that do
not contradict Shari’ah rules. (Peninsula Qatar)
3. Page 3 of 5
Qatar Stock Exchange
Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
20.6%
15.0%
13.8% 13.7%
11.2%
0.0%
7.0%
14.0%
21.0%
Aamal Vodafone
Qatar
Masraf Al
Rayan
Ezdan Real
Estate
Barwa Real
Estate
-6.6%
-3.9%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-0.3%
-9.0%
-6.0%
-3.0%
0.0%
Qatar General
Insurance &
Reinsurance
Zad Holding QNB Group Al Ahli Bank Ooredoo
445.9
379.7
330.8
253.4
222.6
0.0
150.0
300.0
450.0
Barwa Real
Estate
Gulf
International
Services
Ezdan Real
Estate
Vodafone
Qatar
Masraf Al
Rayan
20.3
15.4
9.4
5.5
4.6
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
Ezdan Real
Estate
Vodafone Qatar Barwa Real
Estate
Mazaya Qatar Masraf Al Rayan
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
45.29% 46.16%
20.06% 21.31%
15.96% 17.95%
18.69% 14.58%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
2,295
1,217
2,370
1,142
(74)
74
(500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
4. Page 4 of 5
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QSE Index ended the week at 12,520.66, gaining 5.2% during the week. The Index moved in tandem with oil prices and earnings announcements.
Traded volume increased throughout the week, indicating a positive attitude by traders. The technical indicators are showing more positive signs and the
MACD is about to cross its signal line upwards which is another positive sign. The RSI is turning up and heading to the neutral area. The next expected
resistance on the weekly chart is located at the 12,900 level. The 12,000 level is the immediate support in case the overall market turns south.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
5. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is
regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of
QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or
financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual
circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice
before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently
verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information
it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to
the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to
amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even
contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 5 of 5
Source: Bloomberg
Com pany Nam e
Price
(February 05)
% Change
5-Day
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 192.00 (3.03) (9.82) 134,348 12.8 2.4 3.9
Qatar Islamic Bank 110.00 6.80 7.63 25,992 16.4 2.1 3.6
Commercial Bank of Qatar 70.60 4.59 3.07 20,964 11.6 1.2 2.4
Doha Bank 58.40 (0.17) 2.46 15,089 11.1 1.3 7.7
Al Ahli Bank 55.00 (2.48) 0.73 9,086 15.1 2.2 N/A
Qatar International Islamic Bank 84.00 8.39 2.82 12,715 15.8 2.4 4.5
Masraf Al Rayan 51.00 13.84 15.38 38,250 19.1 3.4 2.9
Al Khaliji Bank 21.70 (0.14) (1.59) 7,812 13.8 1.4 4.6
National Leasing 20.90 1.46 4.50 1,034 23.9 0.8 7.2
Dlala Holding 44.60 3.72 4.21 990 12.4 3.3 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 16.40 7.05 6.49 517 20.5 1.4 3.7
Islamic Holding Group 122.00 1.67 (2.01) 488 30.3 7.2 1.4
Banking and Financial Services 267,285
Zad Holding 84.10 (3.89) 0.12 1,100 10.2 0.8 4.2
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 9.84 2.82 (3.05) 114 N/A 0.7 N/A
Salam International Investment 17.20 4.88 8.52 1,966 26.8 1.2 5.8
Medicare Group 128.00 3.23 9.40 3,602 24.2 4.3 1.4
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 47.00 7.55 6.82 268 21.8 1.9 N/A
Qatar Fuel 217.70 2.69 6.56 18,387 16.0 2.8 3.5
Qatar Meat and Livestock 61.40 3.72 1.66 1,105 20.6 4.3 3.4
Al Meera Consumer Goods 215.00 7.50 7.50 4,300 15.9 3.2 3.7
Consum er Goods and Services 30,843
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 47.00 2.84 8.42 2,233 11.4 1.4 N/A
Qatar National Cement 145.00 9.02 9.85 7,120 16.0 2.7 4.1
Industries Qatar 154.30 3.42 (8.15) 93,352 14.8 2.9 7.1
Qatari Investors Group 39.30 2.34 (5.07) 4,886 21.6 2.2 1.9
Qatar Electricity and Water 197.40 4.72 5.28 21,714 13.8 3.2 3.5
Mannai Corp. 107.90 4.25 (1.01) 4,922 9.3 2.4 5.1
Aamal 17.54 20.55 15.47 10,524 18.3 1.4 N/A
Gulf International Services 109.00 9.00 12.26 20,257 14.5 5.6 1.5
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 29.85 9.34 1.2 37,501 20.9 2.6 1.2
Industrials 202,509
Qatar Insurance 88.70 0.80 (2.10) 14,240 14.2 2.5 2.3
Doha Insurance 27.00 3.85 (6.90) 1,350 10.5 1.3 7.4
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 55.00 (6.62) (6.78) 3,805 2.5 0.6 2.3
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 53.80 3.86 5.91 1,194 13.6 1.7 N/A
Qatar Islamic Insurance 83.90 4.35 6.20 1,259 15.3 4.2 4.5
Insurance 21,847
United Development 25.50 5.77 8.10 9,029 24.0 0.8 3.7
Barw a Real Estate 49.00 11.24 16.95 19,067 13.9 1.4 4.1
Ezdan Real Estate 16.50 13.71 10.59 43,766 32.5 1.4 1.9
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 21.11 4.92 10.23 2,111 9.9 1.7 3.6
Real Estate 73,974
Qatar Telecom 114.70 (0.26) (7.43) 36,741 14.5 1.5 3.5
Vodafone Qatar 17.14 15.03 4.19 14,490 N/A 2.6 1.0
Telecom s 51,231
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 105.00 5.00 5.53 12,025 12.0 0.9 4.8
Gulf Warehousing 60.00 7.14 6.38 2,854 20.3 3.3 2.5
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 24.10 2.99 4.33 13,496 15.3 3.4 4.6
Transportation 28,375
Qatar Exchange 676,062