06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
QNBFS Weekly Market Report February 21, 2019
1. `
Page 1 of 6
Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume
The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased by 250.00 points
or 2.5% during the trading week to close at 10,191.5. Market
capitalization gained by 2.3% to QR578.4 billion (bn) versus
QR565.6bn the previous trading week. Of the 46 listed companies,
29 companies ended the week higher, while 14 declined and
remained unchanged. Qatari Investors Group (QIGD) was the best
performing stock for the week with a gain of 12.3% on a trading
volume of 376,914 shares. On the other hand, Qatar Insurance &
Reinsurance Co. (QGRI) was the worst performing stock for the
week with a decline of 8.8% on 2,614 shares traded only.
Industries Qatar (IQCD), Qatar Fuel Co. (QFLS) and Qatar Islamic
Bank (QIBK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index
gain. IQCD was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly
increase, adding 89.3 points to the index. QFLS was the second
biggest contributor to the mentioned gain, contributing 45.4
points to the index. Moreover, QIBK tacked on 43.9 points to the
index. On the other hand, Nakilat (QGTS) deleted 14.9 points from
the index.
Trading value during the week increased by 79.7% to QR1.6bn
versus QR900.4 million (mn) in the prior week. The Banks and
Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week,
accounting for 34.8% of the total trading value. The Industrials
sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading
value, accounting for 28.6% of the total. QNB Group (QNBK) was
the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value
of QR329.5mn.
Trading volume increased by 78.8% to reach 52.6mn shares
versus 29.4mn shares in the prior week. The number of
transactions increased by 42.2% to 31,316 transactions versus
22,024 transactions in the prior week. The Industrials sector led
the trading volume, accounting for 43.9%, followed by the Banks
and Financial Services sector which accounted for 20.9% of the
overall trading volume. Qatar Aluminium Co. (QAMC) was the top
volume traded stock during the week with 6.8mn shares.
Foreign institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR300.1mn
vs. net selling of QR7.1mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions
remained positive with net buying of QR76.2mn vs. net buying of
QR40.4mn in the week before. Foreign retail investors remained
bearish with net selling of QR37.1mn vs. net selling of QR0.7mn in
the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net
selling of QR339.2mn vs. net selling of QR32.7mn the week before.
Foreign institutions have bought (net basis) ~$360mn worth of
Qatari equities in 2019.
Market Indicators
Week ended
Feb 21, 2019
Week ended
Feb 14, 2019
Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 1,618.2 900.4 79.7
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 578,404.1 565,645.7 2.3
Volume (mn) 52.6 29.4 78.8
Number of Transactions 31,316 22,024 42.2
Companies Traded 46 46 0.0
Market Breadth 29:14 5:41 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 18,109.02 2.9 (4.1) (0.2)
ALL Share Index 3,075.86 2.1 (5.2) (0.1)
Banks and Financial Services 3,718.20 2.0 (4.6) (3.0)
Industrials 3,275.55 5.1 (3.7) 1.9
Transportation 2,165.55 (1.7) (3.4) 5.1
Real Estate 2,237.23 0.0 (10.5) 2.3
Insurance 2,902.26 (1.0) (9.8) (3.5)
Telecoms 946.90 0.5 (7.3) (4.1)
Consumer Goods & Services 7,504.53 5.6 2.9 11.1
Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,976.52 3.8 (2.2) 2.4
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM
P/E**
P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QSE)* 10,191.50 2.5 (4.9) (1.0) 443.10 158,829.8 14.5 1.5 4.3
Dubai 2,633.69 4.0 2.6 4.1 306.85 95,324.4#
8.4 1.0 5.3
Abu Dhabi 5,098.12 1.2 1.1 3.7 247.51 138,650.6 14.3 1.5 4.7
Saudi Arabia#
8,567.24 (0.7) 0.1 9.5 2,821.69 541,551.5 18.6 1.9 3.3
Kuwait 4,791.09 (0.1) (0.1) 1.1 377.58 32,946.1 15.9 0.8 4.3
Oman 4,055.57 (1.3) (2.7) (6.2) 30.64 17,704.3 8.4 0.8 6.4
Bahrain 1,404.84 2.4 1.0 5.1 30.18 21,499.1 9.3 0.9 5.8
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any;
#
Data as of February 20, 2019)
10,010.54
10,034.24
9,982.25
10,077.82
10,191.50
0
7,000,000
14,000,000
9,850
10,050
10,250
17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb
Volume QSE Index
4.0%
2.5% 2.4%
1.2%
(0.1%)
(0.7%) (1.3%)
(2.0%)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Dubai
Qatar(QSE)*
Bahrain
AbuDhabi
Kuwait
SaudiArabia
Oman
2. Page 2 of 6
News
Economic & Market News
QGTS 4Q2018 net income down 3% YoY but up 9% QoQ
exceeding our estimate by 9%; DPS flat at QR1 slightly below
our estimate; Maintain Accumulate at QR21 – Qatar Gas
Transport Company Limited's (QGTS) posted a net profit of
QR233mn in 4Q2018, beating our estimate of QR214mn
(variation of +9%). Operating metrics were in line with our
estimates, with adjusted revenue of QR878mn lower by 1.5%
relative to our estimate of QR891mn and adjusted EBITDA of
QR679mn flattish vs. our forecast of QR681mn. Most of the
beat for the quarter came from lower than expected finance
charges, which came in at QR287mn (-2.5% YoY, -6.1% QoQ)
vs. our estimate of QR309mn despite total debt for 2018
coming in exactly in-line with our model at QR19.8bn. In
FY2018, Nakilat reported 5% YoY growth in net profit to
QR891mn. Excluding the 2017 one-off item (available for sale
investments), the company’s 2018 net profit saw a 14%
growth. The board has recommended a cash dividend of QR1
per share (compared to our estimate of QR1.05 per share) to be
approved by shareholders at the Annual General Assembly
scheduled on March 19, 2019. In terms of catalysts, we believe
expansion of Qatar’s LNG output from 77 MTPA to 110 MTPA
is a significant driver. Currently our model does not assume
any fleet expansion and we will incorporate such expansion
once more details are revealed. We foresee significant upward
revision to our estimates and price target once we factor in this
expansion. Also, QGTS is targeting FSRUs with one vessel
already added to the fleet. We note that the company’s ships
have 40-years of life vs. maximum debt life of 25 years (last
debt maturing 2033), creating refinancing opportunities to
increase fleet size. Medium-term, we believe the shipyard
business, which is no longer loss making, could further
improve. (QNB FS Research, QSE, Gulf-Times.com)
MPHC's bottom line rises 29.7% YoY and 1.4% QoQ in 4Q2018
– Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company's (MPHC) net
profit rose 29.7% YoY (+1.4% QoQ) to QR366.3mn in 4Q2018.
The company's share of results from joint ventures came in at
QR280.6mn in 4Q2018, which represents an increase of 12.6%
YoY. However, on QoQ basis, share of results from joint
ventures fell 11.8%. EPS increased to QR1.11 in FY2018 from
QR0.87 in FY2017. In FY2018, higher group sales volumes and
selling prices helped MPHC to register 28.1% YoY growth in net
profit to QR1.4bn. The region’s premier diversified
petrochemical conglomerate, with interests in the production
of olefins, poly-olefins, alpha olefins and chlor-alkali, has
recommended a total annual dividend of QR1bn, equivalent to
a payout of QR0.8 per share, representing 72% of the group’s
profit. The distributions, since inception (including the
proposed distribution for 2018), amounts to QR5.3bn. The
profit for the year was also aided by the recognition of a tax
refund of approximately QR169mn during the year. The group
continued to benefit from the supply of competitively priced
ethane feedstock and fuel gas under long-term supply
agreements. QChem and QChem II also benefited from the
increased availability of feedstock of 8% during the year
through separate agreements. "These contractual
arrangements are an important value driver for the group to
sustain its strong profitability in a highly competitive market
environment," an MPHC spokesman said. The closing cash
position at the end of December 31, 2018, after distribution of
the previous years’ dividends of QR855mn, was a robust
QR1.9bn. The total assets stood at QR15.3bn in 2018 compared
to QR14.8bn the previous year. The company’s board of
directors also approved the calling to convene an Ordinary and
Extraordinary General Assembly Meetings of the shareholders
on March 12, 2019. Agenda items and meeting details will be
provided later. (QSE, Company financials, Gulf-Times.com)
QIIK arranges joint lead managers, bookrunners amid $2bn
Sukuk plan – Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK) has
appointed Al Khalij Commercial Bank, Barclays, Barwa Bank,
Boubyan Bank, Maybank, QNB Capital and Standard Chartered
Bank as joint lead managers and bookrunners to arrange fixed
income investors’ meetings in Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong,
Singapore and London, the bank announced. A benchmark
Regulation S registered US Dollar Sukuk with a tenor of five
years will follow under QIIK’s $2bn Sukuk program, subject to
market conditions. QIIK, rated ‘A2’ and ‘A’ by Moody’s and
Fitch, respectively, is the third largest listed Islamic bank in
Qatar by total assets. (Qatar Tribune)
Nakilat forms new joint-venture with McDermott for
fabrication projects – Qatar Gas Transport Company Limited
(Nakilat) has signed an agreement with McDermott to form a
joint-venture (JV), company providing offshore and onshore
fabrication services in Qatar. The strategic partnership aims at
increasing productivity levels at Nakilat’s world-class Erhama
Bin Jaber Al Jalahma Shipyard and developing local
construction capabilities to support the increasing demand for
the construction of offshore and onshore structures in Qatar.
The establishment of the new joint venture is aligned with
Qatar’s newly launched localization program, which is
designed to enhance the resilience of the energy sector’s
supply chain. In addition, the program aims at creating new
investment opportunities within the energy sector, which will
significantly contribute to Qatar’s economy. This new joint-
venture comes at a strategic time, with Qatar’s ambition to
localize its energy sector's supply chain and increase its
liquefied natural gas production from 77mn tons per annum
(mtpa) to 110mtpa in the coming years. This project will
provide a range of new services that will support Nakilat and
its joint ventures to undertake the construction, maintenance,
repair and refurbishment of offshore and onshore structures,
and all types of vessels. (QSE)
QOIS reports net loss of QR0.8mn in 4Q2018 – Qatar Oman
Investment Company (QOIS) reported net loss of QR0.8mn in
4Q2018 as compared to net loss of QR1.2mn in 4Q2017 and
QR0.3mn in 3Q2018. In FY2018, QOIS reported net profit of
QR4.38mn as compared to QR9.33mn in FY2017. EPS
amounted to QR0.14 in FY2018 as compared to QR0.30 in
FY2017. The board of directors recommended a distribution of
3% of the share capital as a cash dividend to the shareholders
for FY2018, i.e. QR0.30 for each share held. (QSE)
3. Page 3 of 6
Qatar Stock Exchange
Top Gainers Top Decliners
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
12.3% 12.1%
8.4%
7.1%
6.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Qatari Investors
Group
Mesaieed
Petrochemical
Holding Co.
Qatar Fuel
Company
Islamic Holding
Group
Industries Qatar
-8.8%
-4.5%
-3.7%
-2.6%
-2.1%
-12.0%
-8.0%
-4.0%
0.0%
QatarGeneral Ins. &
Reins. Co.
AlijarahHolding Qatar Gas Transport
Co. Ltd.
Gulf International
Services
QatarNational
CementCompany
329.5
251.2
164.5
103.7 100.2
0.0
120.0
240.0
360.0
QNB Group Qatar Fuel
Company
Mesaieed
Petrochemical
Holding Co.
Industries Qatar United
Development
Company
9.8
6.8 6.6
2.7 2.5
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
Mesaieed
Petrochemical
HoldingCo.
Qatar Aluminium
Manufacturing
Company
United
Development
Company
Doha Bank Aamal Company
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
26.62%
47.58%
25.86%
21.15%8.68%
10.97%
38.84%
20.30%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
849
769
1,112
506
(263)
263
(400) (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
4. Page 4 of 6
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QE Index closed up by 2.51% from the week before; it managed to close above the 10,000 mark at the 10,191.50 level. The corrective
rising-wedge formation remains intact, but if the Index manages to move inside that formation again, it may nullify it. We keep our
weekly support level at the 9,250 level and our resistance at the 10,400 level.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When
the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion
between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use
a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
5. Page 5 of 6
Source: Bloomberg
Company Name
Price
February 21
% Change
WTD
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million
TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 179.99 1.63 (7.70) 166,246 12.9 2.5 3.3
Qatar Islamic Bank 149.00 0.68 (1.97) 35,208 13.8 2.3 3.4
Commercial Bank of Qatar 40.97 1.14 4.01 16,582 11.7 1.0 2.4
Doha Bank 20.89 (0.85) (5.90) 6,477 10.6 0.7 14.4
Al Ahli Bank 31.01 0.03 10.75 6,523 9.8 1.2 3.1
Qatar International Islamic Bank 66.82 0.03 1.06 10,114 12.2 1.7 6.0
Masraf Al Rayan 39.00 2.93 (6.43) 29,250 13.7 2.2 5.1
Al Khaliji Bank 11.50 0.00 (0.35) 4,140 7.5 0.7 6.5
Qatar First Bank 4.10 1.74 0.49 820 N/A 0.8 N/A
National Leasing 8.68 (4.51) (1.25) 429 57.3 0.6 5.8
Dlala Holding 9.80 (2.00) (2.00) 278 N/A 1.3 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 5.98 3.10 11.99 188 41.0 0.7 8.4
Islamic Holding Group 22.48 7.05 2.88 127 303.4 0.9 N/A
Banking and Financial Services 276,384
Zad Holding 120.00 1.69 15.38 1,727 14.7 1.9 4.9
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 6.64 2.95 17.31 77 N/A 1.6 N/A
Salam International Investment 4.74 (1.46) 9.47 542 N/A 0.4 N/A
Medicare Group 66.00 3.81 4.60 1,858 22.0 1.8 2.7
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 16.80 1.20 (11.67) 106 15.7 0.8 6.0
Qatar Fuel 192.98 8.42 16.26 19,187 16.7 2.7 4.1
Qatar Meat and Livestock 69.10 0.77 (1.29) 1,244 11.5 3.4 6.2
Mannai Corp. 56.87 1.50 3.49 2,594 5.8 1.0 7.0
Al Meera Consumer Goods 146.10 0.38 (1.28) 2,922 16.3 2.2 5.8
Consumer Goods and Services 30,256
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 40.71 (1.88) (4.66) 1,935 9.7 1.2 7.4
Qatar National Cement 62.50 (2.10) 5.04 4,085 11.7 1.3 8.0
Industries Qatar 134.90 6.22 0.97 81,615 16.2 2.3 3.7
Qatari Investors Group 26.50 12.29 (4.71) 3,295 16.0 1.2 2.8
Qatar Electricity and Water 182.00 2.54 (1.62) 20,020 13.0 1.9 4.3
Aamal 9.72 (0.82) 9.95 6,124 12.7 0.8 6.2
Gulf International Services 14.32 (2.59) (15.76) 2,661 N/A 0.8 N/A
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 17.45 12.07 16.10 21,923 15.8 1.5 4.0
Invesment Holding Group 5.20 0.78 6.34 432 10.4 0.5 4.8
Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing 11.96 0.84 (10.41) 6,674 N/A N/A N/A
Industrials 148,761
Qatar Insurance 35.00 0.00 (2.51) 11,162 19.9 1.4 3.7
Doha Insurance 12.25 (2.00) (6.42) 613 10.2 0.6 6.1
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 39.20 (8.82) (12.66) 3,430 10.0 0.6 5.6
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 9.20 1.10 7.10 235 32.4 0.5 5.6
Qatar Islamic Insurance 55.99 0.07 4.25 840 12.1 2.4 6.3
Insurance 16,279
United Development 15.35 (1.48) 4.07 5,435 10.8 0.5 8.1
Barw a Real Estate 39.40 3.68 (1.28) 15,332 9.8 0.8 6.3
Ezdan Real Estate 13.49 (1.24) 3.93 35,782 46.9 1.1 N/A
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 7.11 0.85 (8.85) 823 25.3 0.5 N/A
Real Estate 57,372
Ooredoo 68.00 0.00 (9.33) 21,782 13.9 1.0 5.1
Vodafone Qatar 8.20 1.23 4.99 6,932 59.1 1.5 N/A
Telecoms 28,714
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 67.20 1.02 1.80 7,696 15.1 0.5 5.2
Gulf Warehousing 41.50 (0.46) 7.88 2,432 10.3 1.4 4.6
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 18.97 (3.66) 5.80 10,510 11.8 1.5 5.3
Transportation 20,638
Qatar Exchange 578,404
6. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa
Mehmet Aksoy, PhD QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L.
Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025
mehmet.aksoy@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNB FS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNB FS is
regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and
opinions of QNB FS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or
financial advice. QNB FS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of
the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment
decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNB FS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be
accurate or complete. QNB FS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect.
For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNB FS Fundamental Research as a
result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNB FS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also
express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in
part without permission from QNB FS
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNB FS.
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