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Weekly market report
1. `
Page 1 of 6
Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume
The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased by 70.02 points,
or 0.58% during the week, to close at 12,049.85. Market
capitalization increased by 0.53% to reach QR646.93 billion (bn) as
compared to QR643.51bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43
listed companies, 24 companies ended the week higher, while 18 fell
and 1 remained unchanged. Gulf Warehousing Co. (GWCS) was the
best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 9.44% on 653,349
shares traded. On the other hand, Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the
worst performing stock with a decline of 3.97% on 5.89 million (mn)
shares traded.
QNB Group (QNBK), Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS) and
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES) were positive contributors to the
weekly index gain. QNBK was the biggest contributor to the index’s
weekly increase, adding 40.85 points to the index’s weekly gain of
70.02 points. QEWS contributed 23.44 points to the weekly index gain.
Further, BRES also contributed a 22.23 points to the index’s weekly
appreciation. On the other hand, Industries Qatar (IQCD), VFQS
and Ooredoo (ORDS) contributed negatively to the index. IQCD and
VFQS shaved off 29.91 and 8.08 points from the index, respectively.
Trading value during the week decreased by 12.69% to reach
QR1.71bn vs. QR1.96bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
29.22% of the total trading value. The Industrials sector was the
second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for
27.04% of the total trading value. Gulf International Services (GISS)
was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value
of QR203.82mn.
Trading volume decreased by 3.13% to reach 42.85mn shares vs.
44.23mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions
decreased by 3.36% to reach 24,253 transactions versus 25,097
transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading
volume, accounting for 25.43%, followed by the Banks & Financial
Services sector, which accounted for 24.13% of the overall trading
volume. VFQS was the top volume traded stock during the week with
total traded volume of 5.89mn shares.
Foreign institutions turned bullish during the week with net
buying of QR66.7mn vs. net selling of QR113.0mn in the prior
week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR74.1mn
vs net buying of QR12.5mn the week before. Foreign retail investors
turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR49.3mn vs. net buying
of QR58.0mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bearish
with net selling of QR91.7mn vs. net buying of QR42.7mn the week
before. In 2015 YTD, foreign institutions sold (on a net basis) ~$79mn
worth of Qatari equities.
Market Indicators
Week ended
April 23, 2015
Week ended
April 16, 2015
Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 1,710.6 1,959.2 (12.7)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 646,931.2 643,509.7 0.5
Volume (mn) 42.8 44.2 (3.1)
Number of Transactions 24,253 25,097 (3.4)
Companies Traded 43 43 0.0
Market Breadth 24:18 19:21 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 18,726.10 0.6 2.9 2.2
All Share Index 3,219.50 0.7 2.7 2.2
Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,225.59 1.0 1.7 0.7
Industrials 3,974.93 0.5 2.3 (1.6)
Transportation 2,458.62 1.1 2.1 6.0
Real Estate 2,596.96 1.3 8.4 15.7
Insurance 4,097.19 0.0 (2.1) 3.5
Telecoms 1,323.39 (1.9) (0.2) (10.9)
Consumer 7,219.79 0.6 4.5 4.5
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,561.29 0.9 6.7 11.2
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QSE)* 12,049.85 0.6 2.9 (1.9) 469.90 177,712.0 14.1 1.9 4.2
Dubai 4,088.09 0.2 16.3 8.3 2,139.54 99,008.4 9.2 1.6 5.2
Abu Dhabi 4,631.75 (0.5) 3.7 2.3 651.06 124,979.8 11.6 1.4 4.8
Saudi Arabia#
9,572.27 3.5 9.0 14.9 14,642.89 554,958.0 20.2 2.3 2.8
Kuwait 6,331.33 0.6 0.8 (3.1) 410.64 96,743.3 17.1 1.1 4.0
Oman 6,360.25 1.4 2.0 0.3 59.12 24,256.6 10.3 1.4 4.4
Bahrain 1,397.77 0.2 (3.6) (2.0) 5.33 21,856.7 9.2 0.9 5.0
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any;
#
Data as of April 22, 2015)
11,892.95 11,915.76
11,977.35
11,992.61
12,049.85
0
6,000,000
12,000,000
11,800
11,950
12,100
19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr
Volume QSE Index
3.5%
1.4%
0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2%
(0.5%)
(2.0%)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
SaudiArabia
Oman
Qatar(QSE)*
Kuwait
Dubai
Bahrain
AbuDhabi
2. Page 2 of 6
News
Market & Corporate News
CBQK posted a disappointing bottom-line growth in
1Q2015 due to higher-than-expected provisions. CBQK
reported a net profit of QR452.3mn falling short of our estimate
of QR555.3mn (18.5% deviation) as well as BBG’s consensus
of QR528.40mn (14.4% deviation). This miss was mainly due to
provisions. The bank’s bottom-line dropped by 15.3% YoY
(+22.2% QoQ). However, core income came in line with our
estimate. CBQK reported a net interest income of QR625.5mn
in-line with our estimate of QR624.3mn. Moreover, the bank
registered a total revenue and net operating income of
QR1,052mn (in-line with our estimate of QR1,071.5mn) and
QR651.2mn (in-line with our estimate of QR645.5mn),
respectively. CBQK reported net provisions and
impairments of QR176.3mn vs. our estimate of QR62.0mn,
which was the main reason behind the miss. QoQ growth in
bottom-line was driven by lower provisions while the YoY
decline was due to a surge in provisions. The bank’s net
interest income was flat QoQ and inched up by 0.8% YoY.
Moreover, annualized NIMs seem to have stabilized QoQ at
~2.54%. On a positive note, fees & commissions grew by 7.6%
YoY (+12.2% QoQ). The bank’s cost-to-income ratio
deteriorated to 38.1% vs. 37.1% in 4Q2014 due to weaker
revenue. On the other hand, the bank’s expenses were
contained. Lack of growth in loan book vs. domestic peers
not encouraging. CBQK’s loan book dipped by 0.8% YTD to
QR71.9bn vs. loan growth of 8.5% for MARK, 4.7% for DHBK,
8.1% for QIBK and 6.1% for QIIK. On the other hand, CBQK’s
deposits were flat YTD at QR61.7bn. Thus, CBQK ended
1Q2015 with an LDR 117% vs. 118% at the end of 2014. We
note that Abank posted a ~10% YTD loan book growth vs. a
11% weakening in TRY spot rates over the same period. Asset
quality showing signs of deterioration. The bank’s NPLs
increased by 2.2% QoQ with the NPL ratio climbing up to
3.89% vs. 3.79% in FY2014 (1Q2014: 3.55%). On the other
hand, the coverage ratio improved to 77% vs. 74% in FY2014.
(QNBFS Research, Company Financials)
DHBK’s 1Q2015 QoQ profitability driven by a drop in
provisions and opex – Doha Bank (DHBK) reported a net
income of QR420.2mn in 1Q2015 slightly ahead of our estimate
of QR401.8mn (4.6% variation). DHBK’s Net operating income
(QR461.3mn) was in-line with our estimate of QR457.8mn
(0.8% variation). Thus, the beat was mainly due to lower
provisions vs. our estimate. Net income surged by 92.2% QoQ
(+5.2% YoY). QoQ growth is primarily attributed to an 80.8%
plunge in net provisions (QR38.5mn in 1Q2015 vs. QR200.4mn
in 4Q2014 and QR72.5mn in 1Q2014) followed by a 7.1%
decline in opex. As such the cost-to-income ratio improved
QoQ to 35.4% vs. 39.1% in 4Q2014. The bank’s net interest
income rose 6.2% QoQ (+4.4% YoY) to QR506.7mn. Hence,
annualized NIM improved to ~2.94% in 1Q2015 vs. ~2.88% in
4Q2014. Fees and commissions dropped by 22.2% QOQ to
QR118.7mn while it grew by 24.9% YoY. Overall, non-interest
income declined by 5.1% and 2.4% QoQ and YoY, respectively
mainly due to a sharp decline investment income (-31.8% QoQ
and 78.3% YoY). Net loans grew by 4.7% YTD to QR50.8bn
while deposits receded by 1.6% YTD to QR45.2bn. As a result,
the LDR was lifted to 112% vs. 106% at the end of 2014.
(QNBFS Research, Company Financials)
QEWS reports better-than-expected 1Q2015 profitability as
margins expand. QEWS reported QR667.2mn in revenue for
1Q2015 vs. our estimate of QR672.6mn. Revenue decreased
10% QoQ and increased 1% YoY; revenue was up 4% YoY
excluding the impact of RAF A SAT stations (Al Saliyah and
Doha South Super) that were discontinued, as expected, once
their PPA expired YE2014. We were projecting QR303.8mn in
net income but the company beat our estimate coming in at
QR346.1mn (-4% QoQ, +16% YoY). The majority of the beat
was due to an increase in GMs with cash cost of sales declining
to 39.2% vs. our conservative estimate of 42.4%. Depreciation
also come down to QR103.9mn vs. our estimate of
QR118.3mn. The beat in depreciation will likely sustain going
forward given that Ras Abu Fontas A has been fully
depreciated by YE2014. We retain our bullish stance on
QEWS with an Accumulate rating and a QR229 price target.
We will adjust our net income estimate upward given the beat
this quarter and lower depreciation charges going forward. New
projects on the horizon: QEWS should benefit from two new
water plants, RAF A2 (36 MIGD) from 2H2015 and RAF A3 (36
MIGD) from 4Q2016, adding ~28% to QEWS’ net water
capacity. Further, Facility D (2,400 MW & 130 MIGD; 60%
share) should be commissioned in 2018. We also expect
contribution from Ras Laffan Industrial Water (recently upped to
65 MIGD from 36 MIGD; 60%) later in 2018. The latter two
projects are not factored into our estimates/fair value. Overall,
these four projects should expand QEWS’ net electricity &
water capacity by 27% and 73%, respectively, in 2018. QEWS
is seeking regional expansion and has set up a $1bn JV (60%
stake), Nebras Power, with QPI/QH. The partners are valuing
QEWS’ assets in Oman & Jordon (FY2014 BV: QR279.7mn) for
sale to the JV; the Sur IPP in Oman is also planning an IPO in
2015.
MARK net profit jumps 18.1% YoY in 1Q2015 – Masraf Al
Rayan’s (MARK) bottom-line in 1Q2015 jumped 18.1% YoY to
QR511mn as compared to QR432mn in 1Q2014. Earnings beat
our estimate by 9% and BBG consensus by 11%. The beat was
on the back of better net interest income & investing income
and lower operating expenses. Total assets of the bank
reached QR83.2bn as compared to QR69.4bn as of March 31,
2014, reflecting a growth of 19.9%. Financing assets grew
37.6% YoY to QR62.8bn whereas customers’ deposits reached
QR60.8bn, registering a growth of 16.2% YoY. EPS for the
period amounted QR0.68 as compared to QR0.58 in 1Q2014.
Further, the bank reported that its capital adequacy ratio
reached 17.41% as per Basel-III standards versus 18.65% on
March 31, 2014 based on Basel-II standards. Non-performing
loans (NPL) ratio continued to be one of the lowest in the
banking industry at 0.09%. (Peninsula Qatar)
QIIK reports net profit of QR212mn in 1Q2015 – Qatar
International Islamic Bank (QIIK) reported a net profit of
QR212.3mn (+5.7% and +4.0 QoQ and YoY, respectively) in
1Q2015, in-line with our estimate of QR212.3mn. The primary
driver of growth was the reversal of provisions. The bank’s total
loans grew by 6.1% YTD to QR23.2bn, while deposits dropped
by 5.5% YTD to QR25.2bn. Thus, the LDR was lifted to 92% vs.
82% at the end of 2014. QIIK’s NPL ratio decreased to 0.96%
vs. 0.98% at the end of 2014. The bank’s cost to income ratio
remained unchanged YoY at 23.1% (4Q2014: 31.9%). QIIK’s
capital adequacy under Basel III reached 18.49%. (QNBFS
Research, Company Financials)
MCCS 1Q2015 net profit climbs 10% YoY – Mannai
Corporation (MCCS) reported an increase of 10% YoY in its
1Q2015 bottom-line to QR165.2mn. The company’s revenue
grew by 14.33% YoY in 1Q2015. (Peninsula Qatar)
3. Page 3 of 6
Qatar Stock Exchange
Top Gainers Top Decliners
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
9.4%
7.3%
6.2% 6.2%
5.5%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
Gulf
Warehousing
Qatar & Oman
Investment
Qatari
Investors
Group
Qatar German
Co. for Medical
Devices
Qatar
Electricity and
Water
-4.0%
-2.1%
-1.3% -1.2% -1.2%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Vodafone Qatar Industries Qatar Qatar National
Cement
Qatar Fuel Ooredoo
203.8
181.9
127.0 121.5
102.8
0.0
80.0
160.0
240.0
Gulf
International
Services
Barwa Real
Estate
QNB Group Industries
Qatar
Vodafone
Qatar
5.9
5.5
3.9 3.7
2.3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Vodafone Qatar Ezdan Real
Estate
Qatar German
Co. for Medical
Devices
Barwa Real
Estate
Gulf International
Services
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
44.37% 49.73%
16.97% 12.64%
15.36% 18.24%
23.29% 19.39%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
1,049
661
1,067
644
(18)
17
(200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
4. Page 4 of 6
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QSE Index increased slightly from last week, gaining 0.58% from last week yet creating a Hanged man candlestick. Although that candlestick indicates
possible bearish turn on the Index; technical indicators show otherwise. The QSE Index is flirting with the moving averages, and the MACD’s Histogram
shows a possible positive momentum to be expected. The RSI is flattish, which is a neutral sign. A positive rise to the 12,200 level is possible and a
sustained close above that level on the weekly frame can be very positive for the coming month. The Immediate support level is situated around 11,800
level.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
5. Page 5 of 6
Source: Bloomberg
Company Name
Price
(April 23)
% Change 5-
Day
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 193.00 2.39 (9.35) 135,048 12.6 2.5 3.9
Qatar Islamic Bank 102.50 (0.19) 0.29 24,220 14.7 2.3 4.1
Commercial Bank of Qatar 56.50 (0.88) (9.27) 18,455 10.3 1.1 5.6
Doha Bank 53.90 2.08 (5.44) 13,926 10.1 1.3 7.4
Al Ahli Bank 48.50 (0.82) (2.29) 8,813 14.2 2.2 2.8
Qatar International Islamic Bank 80.50 (0.62) (1.47) 12,185 14.6 2.4 5.0
Masraf Al Rayan 48.85 (0.10) 10.52 36,638 17.6 3.5 3.6
Al Khaliji Bank 20.80 3.48 (5.67) 7,488 12.5 1.3 4.8
National Leasing 22.05 2.08 10.25 1,091 25.3 0.9 3.9
Dlala Holding 30.80 0.49 (7.89) 875 13.1 3.0 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 15.40 7.32 0.00 485 15.8 1.3 5.2
Islamic Holding Group 115.30 (0.60) (7.39) 461 27.9 7.8 2.6
Banking and Financial Services 259,685
Zad Holding 93.00 3.33 10.71 1,217 9.3 1.5 4.3
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 13.80 6.15 35.96 159 N/A 1.0 a
Salam International Investment 13.60 2.26 (14.20) 1,555 19.5 0.9 4.4
Medicare Group 167.70 4.55 43.33 4,720 24.0 5.7 1.1
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 42.40 (1.17) 6.00 266 21.6 1.9 2.1
Qatar Fuel 179.50 (1.21) (12.14) 15,160 13.3 2.5 5.0
Qatar Meat and Livestock 61.00 5.17 0.99 1,098 17.6 4.0 4.1
Al Meera Consumer Goods 227.00 (0.83) 13.50 4,540 20.0 3.2 4.0
Consumer Goods and Services 28,715
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 46.00 0.00 6.11 2,186 13.6 1.4 6.5
Qatar National Cement 118.90 (1.33) (0.92) 6,422 15.4 2.5 3.1
Industries Qatar 143.00 (2.05) (14.88) 86,515 15.2 2.9 4.9
Qatari Investors Group 48.00 6.19 15.94 5,968 26.4 2.6 1.6
Qatar Electricity and Water 204.00 5.48 8.80 22,440 13.8 3.6 3.7
Mannai Corp. 110.10 3.19 1.01 5,023 9.5 2.3 5.4
Aamal 16.50 1.60 14.06 10,395 18.1 1.4 5.8
Gulf International Services 86.70 1.40 (10.71) 16,112 10.2 4.6 6.3
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 26.20 (1.13) -11.2 32,916 22.8 2.5 4.2
Industrials 187,976
Qatar Insurance 78.00 (0.26) (0.99) 14,400 14.7 2.5 2.8
Doha Insurance 25.90 0.58 (10.69) 1,295 12.0 1.2 3.9
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 56.50 0.53 10.13 4,495 4.9 0.8 3.1
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 42.80 (0.47) (3.11) 1,093 14.7 1.7 3.0
Qatar Islamic Insurance 82.40 1.73 4.30 1,236 14.7 4.0 4.9
Insurance 22,519
United Development 21.70 0.46 (8.01) 7,684 12.3 0.7 5.8
Barw a Real Estate 49.45 3.56 18.02 19,242 6.7 1.2 4.4
Ezdan Real Estate 17.01 0.41 14.01 45,119 33.6 1.5 2.4
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 19.00 4.72 4.18 1,900 11.8 1.5 1.5
Real Estate 73,945
Qatar Telecom 100.80 (1.18) (18.64) 32,288 15.5 1.4 4.0
Vodafone Qatar 17.19 (3.97) 4.50 14,532 N/A 2.6 1.0
Telecoms 46,821
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 99.40 (0.30) (0.10) 11,384 10.8 0.8 5.5
Gulf Warehousing 68.40 9.44 21.28 3,253 23.2 3.7 2.2
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 22.56 0.27 (2.34) 12,634 13.8 4.3 5.3
Transportation 27,271
Qatar Exchange 646,931
6. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the
Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is
not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability
whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically
engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report
has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any
representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis,
expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical
technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment
decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
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