Weekly market report

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Weekly market report

  1. 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 686.03 points, or 5.27%, during the trading week, to close at 13,694.19 points. Market capitalization increased by 1.69% to reach QR736.9 billion (bn) as compared to QR724.6bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 27 companies ended the week higher, while 15 fell and 1 remained unchanged. Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 25.91% on 37.8 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) was the worst performing stock, with a decline of 10.50% on 12.7mn shares traded. As expected, Qatar and UAE experienced greater trading activity during the week. Both markets will be part of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index from June 2014. The Qatari market experienced heightened trading activity on the last trading day of the week primarily on the back of international passive funds. Value traded on the Qatar Exchange increased to QR4.6bn on Thursday vs. QR2.4bn on June 9, 2008 (previous all-time high). MARK, which enjoys the highest weight in the MSCI EM Index among Qatari stocks, was the best performing stock during the week. MARK contributed 405.28 points out of the 686.03 points to the index’s weekly gain. The stock has been one of the best performing stocks in 2014 year-to-date (YTD) with a price return of 109.58% versus the QE Index (+31.93% YTD). Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) was the second biggest contributor, adding 116.24 points to the index’s gain. QIBK is up 59.28% YTD in 2014. Dubai and Abu Dhabi also experienced greater trading activity with their benchmark indices appreciating by 4.99% and 5.54%, respectively, on Thursday. Trading value during the week increased by 125.95% to reach QR10.5bn vs. QR4.63bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 44.11% of the total equity trading value. MARK was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR2.3bn. Trading volume increased by 85.74% to reach 196.0mn shares vs. 105.5mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions increased by 56.58% to reach 76,199 transactions versus 48,664 transactions in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector also led the trading volume, accounting for 33.8%. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 44.0mn shares. Foreign institutions aggressively bought during the week with net buying of QR2.2bn vs. net buying of QR318.6mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR1.3bn vs. net selling of QR257.0mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR221.8mn vs. net selling of QR111.1mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bearish with net selling of QR657.2mn vs. net buying of QR50.0mn the week before. Thus far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net foreign portfolio investment inflow of ~$1.93bn. Market Indicators Week ended May 29, 2014 Week ended May 22, 2014 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 10,464.5 4,631.3 126.0 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 736,878.6 724,621.1 1.7 Volume (mn) 196.0 105.5 85.7 Number of Transactions 76,199 48,664 56.6 Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 27:15 14:29 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 20,420.99 5.3 8.0 37.7 All Share Index 3,423.79 3.7 5.5 32.3 Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,375.17 5.7 9.2 38.1 Industrials 4,487.71 2.5 4.8 28.2 Transportation 2,198.53 (3.5) (6.4) 18.3 Real Estate 2,841.68 6.2 9.2 45.5 Insurance 3,357.29 3.0 1.5 43.7 Telecoms 1,858.67 6.3 8.9 27.8 Consumer 6,698.15 (3.3) (9.6) 12.6 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,638.81 7.5 10.6 52.8 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 13,694.19 5.3 8.0 31.9 1,694.54 202,420.5 17.1 2.3 3.6 Dubai 5,087.47 4.6 0.6 51.0 2,722.21 94,978.5 20.4 2.0 2.0 Abu Dhabi 5,253.41 6.7 4.1 22.4 1,482.60 145,538.7 15.5 1.9 3.2 Saudi Arabia 9,823.40 (0.1) 2.2 14.7 3,307.57 529871.6# 19.4 2.4 2.9 Kuwait 7,291.09 (0.8) (1.6) (3.4) 118.93 114,925.4 15.1 1.2 3.8 Oman 6,857.43 1.7 1.9 0.3 98.38 24,835.3 12.6 1.7 3.9 Bahrain 1,459.34 (0.0) 2.2 16.9 19.75 53,910.2 10.6 1.0 4.7 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (#Data as of May 28, 2014) 13,350.54 13,393.34 13,499.56 13,418.27 13,694.19 0 40,000,000 80,000,000 13,100 13,450 13,800 25-May 26-May 27-May 28-May 29-May Volume QE Index 6.7% 5.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.0% (0.1%) (0.8%) (4.0%) 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% AbuDhabi Qatar(QE)* Dubai Oman Bahrain SaudiArabia Kuwait
  2. 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  MDPS: Qatar's exports in April down 7% – Preliminary figures released by the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS) showed that the value of Qatar's total exports of goods in April 2014 stood at QR40.1bn, showing a 7% decline YoY as compared to April 2013. On the other hand, the value of imports amounted to QR8.8bn in April 2014, registering 10% rise over the value recorded in April 2013. The trade balance of goods showed a surplus of QR31.2bn in April 2014, a 10% fall as compared to April 2013. The YoY decline in exports value was due to lower exports of petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons, which reached QR26bn in April 2014, a decrease of 8% as compared to April 2013. Maintenance work in the LNG facilities was the primary reason for the decline. (Peninsula Qatar)  QCB to issue T-bills worth QR4bn – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) will issue three-month treasury bills worth QR2bn, and six-month and nine-month bills worth QR1bn each. All the bills will be issued on June 3, 2014. (QCB) Market & Corporate News  VFQS posts narrower March 2014 loss on increase in customer base; declares maiden QR0.17 in cash DPS (~1% yield) – In 4Q2014, Vodafone Qatar’s (VFQS) net loss narrowed by 39% on a QoQ basis and 56% on a YoY basis and stood at QR33mn. We were expecting a net loss of QR50mn (Bloomberg consensus: QR49mn). Results were driven by an increase in revenue with 4Q2014 revenue up 8% QoQ and 26% YoY to QR550mn. Reported revenue was in line with our estimate of QR543mn (Bloomberg consensus: QR517mn). VFQS’ mobile customers grew by 22% YoY (4% QoQ) to reach 1.33mn as of March 31, 2014 (QNBFS estimate: 1.34mn) while FY2014 average revenue per user (ARPU) improved 4% to QR126. The company reported a quarterly EBITDA margin of 27.7% vs. our estimate of 26.2% and December 2013 quarter’s 26.4%. VFQS’ FY2014 loss narrowed by 39% to QR246mn, compared to a net loss of QR401mn a year earlier. The improved results were driven by a strong 30% YoY growth in FY2014 revenue to QR1.98bn. The mobile revenue market share grew to 33.6% by the end of 4Q2014 as compared to 30.4% in the same period last year. Postpaid revenue contributed around 17% of total revenue and represented 9.6% of VFQS’ customer base. This enabled VFQS to further increase its profitability with EBITDA margin improving 644bps over the year to reach 25% in FY2014. The company declared QR0.17 in DPS for FY2014 vs. our estimate of QR0.10 (Bloomberg consensus: QR0.08). Further, VFQS' CEO Kyle Whitehill announced that it is set to launch its 4G network services from June 3, 2014. While these are a good set of results, we do believe that the stock has appreciated beyond justifiable growth prospects. We continue to rate the stock an Underperform with a price target of QR13.95. (Company Website, QNBFS Research)  Qatar allows raising foreign ownership in listed companies to maximum of 49%, subject to amendment in company statutes – HH the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, who is also President of the Supreme Council For Economic Affairs and Investment (SCEAI), has given instructions to raise the percentage of non-Qatari ownership in companies listed in the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE). HE Minister of Finance Ali Sherif al-Emadi, who is also the SCEAI’s Secretary General, said that the increase in the proportion of non-Qatari ownership in companies listed on the QSE will be in accordance with the effective legal procedures as follows: 1) The equality of the GCC citizens with their Qatari counterparts as regards their possession of shares of companies listed in QSE, 2) The Non- Qatari citizens who are not members of the GCC may possess shares of the companies listed on QSE and by a percentage not exceeding 49%, and this will be up to the desire of each company through amending its statute, 3) The proportion of non-Qatari ownership, which was referred to in the previous item, in shares of companies traded in the Qatar Exchange, shall be calculated based on the total capital of each company and not on its non-tradable shares and 4) The Ministry of Economy and Commerce and Qatar Financial Markets Authority (QFMA) will immediately take the measures to put this directive into effect. (Gulf-Times.com)  QE to introduce margin trading, short selling – The Qatar Exchange (QE) is planning to introduce margin trading and covered short selling in the near future. The QE is currently interacting with the regulator to evolve rules and regulations to govern these transactions. The QE's CEO Rashid Al Mansoori said that the idea is to increase investment opportunities in the market, diversify the market and help enhance liquidity. (Peninsula Qatar)  Ooredoo surpasses 3mn customers, launches new Smart products and services – Ooredoo (ORDS) has exceeded 3mn customer base mark in Qatar. An important factor that is driving the growth of ORDS’ customer base has been the rising use of data services among businesses and retail customers across Qatar. Meanwhile, Ooredoo announced the launch of new ‘Smart’ products and services to enhance Qatar’s standing as one of the world’s best connected countries, in line with the Qatar National Vision 2030. New launches include Smart Wifi, Smart Healthcare services and Smart security products. (Bloomberg, Peninsula Qatar)  ORDS signs $1bn loan deal to repay existing debt – Ooredoo (ORDS) has signed a $1bn five-year revolving credit facility. ORDS will use the new facility to repay a $750mn loan due in May 2015 and allocate the rest for general business purposes. Seventeen banks helped to fund the loan, including QNB Group, Barclays and HSBC. QNB Group is the facility agent for the lenders and acted as a documentation agent for the facility and was the general financial advisor to ORDS. (QE, Gulf-Times.com)  Indosat may buy back $650mn bonds in 2015 – Ooredoo’s Indonesian unit, Indosat may buy back $650mn in bonds due in 2020 sometime in 2015. Indosat’s CFO, Stefan Carlsson, said that the company aims to reduce its exposure to the US dollar to 25% from nearly 50% now. Indosat is also targeting single- digit growth in revenue and capital expenditures of 8-9 trillion rupiah in 2014. (Reuters)  GWCS completes implementation of new warehouse management system – Gulf Warehousing Company (GWCS) has completed the implementation of INFOR WMS, an enterprise warehouse management system geared at automating its inventory base of over 450 customers under third party and fourth party logistics services. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar Cool signs contract for 3rd cooling plant in West Bay – Qatar District Cooling Company (Qatar Cool) has signed a contract for constructing its third plant in West Bay. Once completed in 2016, the plant, which is the fourth one in Qatar, will provide cooling to residential and commercial towers. The plant is designed to produce 40,000 tons-cooling, cutting down energy usage by 40-45% as compared to traditional cooling systems. (Gulf-Times.com)
  3. 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 25.9% 15.7% 13.2% 10.2% 9.1% 0.0% 14.0% 28.0% Masraf Al Rayan Qatar Islamic Bank Vodafone Qatar Barwa Real Estate Qatar Electricity and Water -10.5% -5.5% -5.3% -5.2% -3.7% -12.0% -6.0% 0.0% Ezdan Real Estate Milaha Qatar Fuel QNB Group Aamal 2,303.0 934.1 862.6 845.8 777.2 0.0 1,250.0 2,500.0 Masraf Al Rayan Barwa Real Estate Vodafone Qatar Ooredoo QNB Group 44.0 37.8 22.7 12.7 9.0 0.0 25.0 50.0 Vodafone Qatar Masraf Al Rayan Barwa Real Estate Ezdan Real Estate Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 32.16% 38.44% 8.45% 20.69%10.09% 12.21% 49.30% 28.66% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 4,250 6,215 6,188 4,277 (1,938) 1,938 (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  4. 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index rallied a massive 686 points and ended last week at a new record high. However, the index later trimmed its gains after reaching a new peak of 13,909.87. The bulls went berserk as the index registered strong gains throughout the week, except for profit-booking on Wednesday. We believe the index has made an intermediate top of 13,909.87 and is currently trading in unchartered territory. Notably, volumes also increased compared to the previous week, which is another positive sign. Meanwhile, both the RSI and MACD lines are in a buy zone, indicating that the index may continue its positive momentum, tagging new highs. However, a possibility of retracement is not ruled out after witnessing such a strong rally. Traders may get buying opportunities if the index drops near the 13,600.0 level and the 13,450.0 level. However, a decline below the 13,450.0 level may warrant caution as the index may pullback to test the 13,300.0 level. Thus, traders may continue to adopt a bullish approach, but are also advised to exercise caution and follow strict stop losses. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  5. 5. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Com pany Nam e Price (May 29) % Change 5-Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 182.00 (5.21) 5.81 127,351 13.0 2.5 3.8 Qatar Islamic Bank 109.90 15.68 59.28 25,969 18.9 2.3 3.6 Commercial Bank of Qatar 71.80 6.37 21.69 21,320 13.1 1.3 2.3 Doha Bank 63.00 (1.56) 8.25 16,277 11.4 1.5 7.1 Al Ahli Bank 50.10 (3.65) 18.42 8,276 15.3 2.2 N/A Qatar International Islamic Bank 87.20 0.69 41.33 13,199 17.2 2.7 4.3 Masraf Al Rayan 65.60 25.91 109.58 49,200 28.4 5.0 2.3 Al Khaliji Bank 23.60 0.90 18.06 8,496 16.1 1.6 4.2 National Leasing 32.25 0.31 6.97 1,596 25.5 1.2 4.7 Dlala Holding 43.50 7.67 96.83 966 N/M 4.3 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 14.18 (1.53) 13.26 447 20.5 1.4 4.2 Islamic Holding Group 73.60 2.65 60.00 294 29.8 5.0 2.3 Banking and Financial Services 273,391 Zad Holding 76.00 0.53 9.35 994 9.3 0.7 4.6 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.20 (1.73) 2.53 164 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 14.40 0.84 10.68 1,646 12.8 1.0 6.9 Medicare Group 87.20 (0.57) 66.10 2,454 24.7 3.2 2.1 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 41.60 0.60 3.74 238 20.7 1.7 N/A Qatar Fuel 212.00 (5.31) (2.99) 17,905 14.9 3.0 3.6 Qatar Meat and Livestock 60.30 (2.74) 16.63 1,085 20.3 4.3 3.5 Al Meera Consumer Goods 186.00 0.70 39.53 3,720 16.9 3.0 4.3 Consum er Goods and Services 28,207 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 47.50 4.86 12.65 2,257 10.9 1.5 N/A Qatar National Cement 150.00 6.38 26.05 7,365 16.5 2.9 4.0 Industries Qatar 188.80 3.17 11.78 114,224 16.2 4.0 5.8 Qatari Investors Group 67.50 2.58 54.46 8,392 37.1 4.0 1.1 Qatar Electricity and Water 200.00 9.05 20.95 22,000 14.8 3.9 3.4 Mannai Corp. 118.00 0.00 31.26 5,383 10.6 3.0 4.7 Aamal 16.60 (3.66) 10.67 9,960 18.7 1.4 N/A Gulf International Services 93.50 (2.60) 91.60 17,376 23.9 5.8 1.7 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 34.85 6.41 N/A 43,783 N/M 3.2 1.0 Industrials 230,740 Qatar Insurance 79.30 4.34 49.06 12,731 15.8 2.5 2.5 Doha Insurance 24.70 0.82 (1.20) 1,235 9.2 1.2 8.1 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 43.80 (0.45) 9.73 3,030 1.4 0.6 2.9 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 39.25 0.51 39.79 871 11.8 1.3 N/A Qatar Islamic Insurance 72.30 1.26 24.87 1,085 17.1 3.9 5.2 Insurance 18,952 United Development 26.45 1.15 22.83 9,366 20.2 0.9 3.6 Barw a Real Estate 43.20 10.20 44.97 16,810 11.4 1.2 4.6 Ezdan Real Estate 24.39 (10.50) 43.47 64,694 51.9 2.2 1.3 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 19.30 (1.53) 72.63 1,930 12.5 1.6 3.9 Real Estate 92,800 Qatar Telecom 155.00 4.38 12.97 49,650 19.0 2.0 2.6 Vodafone Qatar 20.78 13.24 94.02 17,567 N/M 3.0 N/A Telecom s 67,217 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 89.00 (5.52) 7.23 10,193 10.6 0.8 5.6 Gulf Warehousing 54.90 1.86 32.29 2,611 23.7 3.4 2.7 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 22.80 (3.02) 12.59 12,768 16.6 3.5 4.8 Transportation 25,572 Qatar Exchange 736,879

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