The Science of Water Transport and Floods from Theory to Relevant Applications - II

•

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This is the presentation given by Ricardo Mantilla at University of Iowa in 2017. It talks about the system implemented in Iowa for flood forecasting in real time

Education

The Science of Water Transport and Floods
From Theory to Relevant Applica9ons

Modeling the Land-Surface
Rainfall
Evapora-on
Runoﬀ
Seepage

Landscape Decomposi9on
Hillslope-link par--oning = Irregular grid
Hillslope area ~ 0.1 km2
Channel link length ~ 400 m

Mass Conserva-on Equa-ons
Fluxes between control volumes
dsp
dt
= P t( )− qpl − qpc −ep
dsl
dt
= qpl − qls −el
dss
dt
= qls − qsc −es
qpc = k2sp
1.67
and qpl = klsp
qls = kisl and qsc = k3ss
kl = kDRY 1−
sl
Sl
"
#
$
%
&
'
N
Channel Rou-ng
dqc
dt
=
voqc
λ1
Aλ1
1− λ1( )l
qpc + psc
− qc + qu
u∈c
∑
$
%
&
'
(
)
Modeling the Land-Surface (Under the hood)

Statewide implementa9on of the HLM-Async Model
Our distributed hydrological model provides streamﬂow predic9ons everywhere in Iowa

HPC Cluster
University of Iowa
Data Center
Virtual Servers
IFC Central
Database Server
Model
Forecasted
Discharge
River Network Topology,
Rainfall Maps

IFIS
Underlying Cyber-Infrastructure: System Overview
Rainfall Maps
HTTP Data Transfer
Reading from DB (TCP 5432)
Wri-ng into DB (TCP 5432)
Push Informa-on Pull Informa-on
Model Forecasted and
Real Stage and Discharge
IFC Real Time Flood
Forecas9ng Model
Iowa Flood
Informa9on System
IFC Rainfall System

Flood Time Machine: hXp://iﬁs.iowaﬂoodcenter.org/iﬁs/sc/model_-memachine/

Flood Time Machine: hXp://iﬁs.iowaﬂoodcenter.org/iﬁs/sc/model_-memachine/
Storm: Sept. 22nd
Flood Crest: Sept. 27th

The Na-onal Weather Service contacted the Iowa Flood Center as the event was
evolving to ﬁnd out what were our es-mates of crest

(Our pla^orm was a second opinion – unprecedented)
Iowa Floods 2016

The Na-onal Weather Service contacted the Iowa Flood Center as the event was
evolving to ﬁnd out what were our es-mates of crest

(Our pla^orm provided forecast at loca-ons where NWS models have not been
implemented/calibrated/validated - unprecedented)
Iowa Floods 2016

Iowa Floods 2016
The Na-onal Weather Service contacted the Iowa Flood Center as the event was
evolving to ﬁnd out what were our es-mates of crest

(Our pla^orm provided forecast at loca-ons where NWS models have not been
implemented/calibrated/validated - unprecedented)

To establish community-based programs to improve ﬂood monitoring and
predic9on along Iowa's major waterways and to support ongoing ﬂood
research.

Communica9ng Model Results and Sensor Observa9ons

The Science of Water Transport and Floods from Theory to Relevant Applications - II

Estimation of the infiltration/natural recharge to groundwater from rainfall is an important issue in hydrology, particularly in arid regions. This paper proposes the application of The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) mass balance model to develop infiltration (F)–rainfall (P) relationship from flash flood events. Moreover, the NRCS method is compared with the rational and the Ф-index methods to investigate the discrepancies between these methods. The methods have been applied to five gauged basins and their 19 sub-basins (representative basins with detailed measurements) in the southwestern part of Saudi Arabia with 161 storms recorded in 4 years. The F–P relationships developed in this study based on NRCS method are: F = 39% P with R2 = 0.932 for the initial abstraction factor, λ = 0.2. However, F = 77% P with R2 = 0.986 for λ = 0.01. The model at λ = 0.01 is the best to fit the data, therefore, it is recommended to use the formula at λ = 0.01. The results show that the NRCS model is appropriate for the estimation of the F–P relationships in arid regions when compared with the rational and the Ф index methods. The latter overestimates the infiltration because they do not take λ into account. There is no significant difference between F–P relationships at different time scales. This helps the prediction of infiltration rates for aquifer recharge at ungauged basins from monthly and annual rainfall data with a single formula.

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The Science of Water Transport and Floods from Theory to Relevant Applications - II

1. The Science of Water Transport and Floods From Theory to Relevant Applica9ons

2. Connec9ng Rainfall to Flooding

3. Modeling the Land-Surface Rainfall Evapora-on Runoﬀ Seepage

4. Landscape Decomposi9on Hillslope-link par--oning = Irregular grid Hillslope area ~ 0.1 km2 Channel link length ~ 400 m

5. Radar rainfall coverage of Iowa

6. Radar rainfall coverage of Iowa

7. Radar rainfall coverage of Iowa

8. Modeling the Land-Surface Rainfall Evapora-on Runoﬀ Seepage

9. Mass Conserva-on Equa-ons Fluxes between control volumes dsp dt = P t( )− qpl − qpc −ep dsl dt = qpl − qls −el dss dt = qls − qsc −es qpc = k2sp 1.67 and qpl = klsp qls = kisl and qsc = k3ss kl = kDRY 1− sl Sl " # $ % & ' N Channel Rou-ng dqc dt = voqc λ1 Aλ1 1− λ1( )l qpc + psc − qc + qu u∈c ∑ $ % & ' ( ) Modeling the Land-Surface (Under the hood)

10. Statewide implementa9on of the HLM-Async Model Our distributed hydrological model provides streamﬂow predic9ons everywhere in Iowa

11. HPC Cluster University of Iowa Data Center Virtual Servers IFC Central Database Server Model Forecasted Discharge River Network Topology, Rainfall Maps IFIS Underlying Cyber-Infrastructure: System Overview Rainfall Maps HTTP Data Transfer Reading from DB (TCP 5432) Wri-ng into DB (TCP 5432) Push Informa-on Pull Informa-on Model Forecasted and Real Stage and Discharge IFC Real Time Flood Forecas9ng Model Iowa Flood Informa9on System IFC Rainfall System

12. Flood Time Machine: hXp://ifis.iowafloodcenter.org/ifis/sc/model_-memachine/

13. Predic9ons from The Model

14. Predic9ons from The Model

15. Flood Time Machine: hXp://ifis.iowafloodcenter.org/ifis/sc/model_-memachine/ Storm: Sept. 22nd Flood Crest: Sept. 27th

16. The Na-onal Weather Service contacted the Iowa Flood Center as the event was evolving to ﬁnd out what were our es-mates of crest (Our pla^orm was a second opinion – unprecedented) Iowa Floods 2016

17. The Na-onal Weather Service contacted the Iowa Flood Center as the event was evolving to ﬁnd out what were our es-mates of crest (Our pla^orm provided forecast at loca-ons where NWS models have not been implemented/calibrated/validated - unprecedented) Iowa Floods 2016

18. Iowa Floods 2016 The Na-onal Weather Service contacted the Iowa Flood Center as the event was evolving to ﬁnd out what were our es-mates of crest (Our pla^orm provided forecast at loca-ons where NWS models have not been implemented/calibrated/validated - unprecedented)

19. To establish community-based programs to improve ﬂood monitoring and predic9on along Iowa's major waterways and to support ongoing ﬂood research.

20. Almost 250 Bridge Sensors…

21.