The mosaic of causal theory
The document discusses causal pluralism and proposes a "causal mosaic" approach to conceptualizing causality. It summarizes that: 1) Analyses of scientific practices report a plurality of concepts, meanings, sources of evidence, and methods related to causality across domains. 2) A "causal mosaic" can make philosophical sense of this pluralism by arranging "tiles" representing causal concepts according to the philosophical questions and scientific problems they address. 3) Manipulationism, the view that causality means invariance under intervention, is one tile in the mosaic that applies primarily to methodology and experimental problems rather than conceptual or metaphysical questions.
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The mosaic of causal theory
- 1. The mosaic ofcausal theory* Federica Russo Philosophy | Humanities | Amsterdam russofederica.wordpress.com | @federicarusso *Joint work with Phyllis Illari
- 2. Overview Approaches to causality Conceptualanalysis, analysis of scientific practice Causal pluralism A plurality of pluralism How to build a causal mosaic Manipulationism in the mosaic Assessing the debate and suggesting a way forward 2
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- 4. Conceptual analysis What explicatesthe concept of ‘causality’ What makes causal claims true What is causality / are causes, metaphysically >> Causal language | >> Causal intuitions 4
- 5. Causal language Analyse occurrencesof cause / causality in everyday language to draw conclusions about meaning and use of the concept A heir of Oxon phil language Examples Short-circuit and fire (Mackie’s INUS) … Some conclusions Distinction between causes and conditions … 5
- 6. Causal intuitions Exploit intuitionsto draw conclusions about the metaphysics of causation from everyday or toy examples A heir of the ‘Canberra Plan’ Examples The ‘Billy and Suzy’ episodes The assassins … Some conclusions Two concepts of cause: production and dependence Counterexamples undermine the counterfactual approach … 6
- 7. Analysis of scientificpractice Growing CitS / PSP / PI Philosophical questions about causation (and other topics) are motivated by methodological and practical problems in real science Start from scientific practice to bottom up philosophy Partly descriptive and partly normative Examples Causal assessment in medicine Causal reasoning in quantitative social science … Some conclusions Evidential components in causal assessment: mechanisms and difference-making ‘Variation’ (rather than regularity) guides causal reasoning … 7
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- 9. Making sense of avast intellectual enterprise Diversity in philosophical theorising about causes Long history, ups and downs Many concepts Expansion of philosophical theorising about causes Beyond physics, attention to the special sciences, and medicine Attention for questions about use, besides traditional metaphysics, epistemology, and semantics 9
- 10. How many concepts?Many! Causality Polysemic, thick concept Causal verbs Pulling, pushing, binding, … Causal methods Tracking what varies with what Understanding what produces what, and how, and when Different sources of evidence Evidence of difference making, of production … 10
- 11. Causal pluralism: causality cannotbe reduced to one single concept but has to be analysed using several concepts 11
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- 13. Ad hoc pluralism Aconcept for each scientific domain Physics ? Social science ? Medicine ? Biology ? Any unifying concept? Irreducible different concepts? 13
- 14. Ad hoc monism? The‘epistemic’ turn: From concepts of cause to evidential components From causings in the world to causal beliefs 14
- 15. Pluralisms, de facto Typesof causing Anscombian pluralism: pulling, pushing, binding, … Aristotelian causes Concepts of causation Hall: Dependence vs production Types of inferences Inferential bases, inferential targets, practices Sources of evidence Difference-making and mechanisms Methods for causal inference Quantitative, qualitative, observational, experimental, … 15
- 16. Anything does notgo, but something does Look at the scientific practice: Diversity of causes Production and difference-making Evidence Causal methods 16
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- 18. Philosophical Questions Metaphysics What iscausality? What kind of things are causes and effects? Semantics What does it mean that C causes E? Epistemology What notions guide causal reasoning? How can we use C to explain E? Methodology How to establish whether C causes E? Or how much of C causes E? Use What to do once we know that C causes E? Scientific Problems Inference Does C cause E? To what extent? Prediction What to expect if C does (not) cause E? Explanation How does C cause or prevent E? Control What factors to hold fixed to study the relation between C and E? Reasoning What considerations about whether / how / to what extent C causes E? 18
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- 21. Tiles for the CausalMosaic … necessary and sufficient; levels; evidence; probabilistic causality; counterfactuals; manipulation and invariance; processes; mechanisms; information exogeneity; Simpson’s paradox; dispositions; regularity; variation; action; inference; validity; truth; … To be arranged by Philosophical Questions Metaphysics, Semantics, Epistemology, Methodology, Use Scientific Problems Inference, Prediction, Explanation, Control, Reasoning 21
- 22. Unifying the fragments intothe causal mosaic A (causal) mosaic is picture made of tiles Each fragment has a role that Is determined by the scientific challenge / philosophical question it addresses Stands in a relation with neighboring concepts The causal mosaic is dynamic, partly depends on scientists’ / philosophers’ perspectives 22
- 23. PHILOSOPHICAL METHODOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHYOF CAUSALITY 23
- 24. Philosophical consequences of causalpluralism Conceptual analysis Building networks of concepts No winning concepts Epistemology Constructionism Philosophical argumentation Use of examples and counterexamples 24
- 25. Accounts of causalityCounterexamples Scope Relevant questions How many Found in the literature All possible worlds. What does causation logically/metaphysically mean? One logically possible example. Witches casting spells; Angels protecting glasses. Worlds close to the actual world. What is causation metaphysically? One metaphysically possible example. World with reverse temporal direction; Salmon’s moving spot of light. This world. What is causation in this world? One or more real examples. Kinetic theory of gases / quantum mechanics; Billy and Suzy / bombing the enemy town. Some region in this world. What is causation in biochemistry, or physics? A few real examples in the relevant domain. Causality in protein synthesis mechanisms. Some region of this world at some time. What kind of causal explanation can we give of the economic crisis in 1929? Can we give the same kind of explanation of the economic crisis now? A few real examples in the relevant domain at the relevant time; Typical not skewed examples. Causality in the discovery of protein synthesis. Causality in systems biological approaches to protein synthesis. 25
- 26. MANIPULATIONISM IN THE CAUSALMOSAIC 26
- 27. Manipulationism Information about theresults of interventions is of utmost importance for explanation or causal assessment
- 28. ‘Standard’ manipulationism Causality is/ means invariance under intervention X causes Y if, wiggling X, Y wiggles, and the relation between X and Y remains stable X causes Y if, were we to wiggle X, Y would wiggle, and the relation between X and Y would remain stable 28 P V = n R T
- 29. Manipulationism under debate Wheredoes this apply? Physics, economics, biology, …, anywhere? What intervention? Possible, feasible, real, ideal, imaginary? What philosophical questions does it answer? Conceptual analysis, metaphysics, methodology? What scientific problem does it address? Inference, control, reasoning? 29
- 30. 30 Manipulationism Invariance under intervention ✓Methodological ✓Experimental ✓ Possible,feasible, real ✗Ideal, imaginary ✗Observational ✗ Conceptual
- 31. TO SUM UPAND CONCLUDE 31
- 32. Pluralisms Two traditions inphilosophical investigation about causality Conceptual analysis Analysis of scientific practice Analyses of scientific practices report a plurality of pluralisms In the methods, concepts, meanings, sources of evidence, … Can we make (philosophical) sense of such pluralism? 32
- 33. Causal mosaics (Re)Locate causaltiles according to the philosophical questions and scientific problems addressed Causal mosaics: many, and changing 33
- 34. Liberalising methodologies Philosophical traditionsand methodological approaches in context Non-neutral philosophical methodology Philosophy (of causality) Inclusive, collaborative, engaging (with the sciences) 34
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Editor's Notes
- #2 Philosophers have long tried to pin down the one meaning of causality. Invariably, other philosophers offered counterexamples to undermine these monist accounts. Thus, to overcome these difficulties, other philosophers still have proposed pluralist approaches to causality. But is causal pluralism a viable solution? In this talk I argue that we need an altogether different approach to causal pluralism. I suggest that philosophical theorising about causation has to support scientific methodology in providing answers to key challenges: inference, explanation, prediction, control, and reasoning. To do so, philosophical theorising has to carefully distinguish epistemological, metaphysical, and methodological questions about causality. This leads me to delineate a pluralistic understanding of causal theory, in analogy with the construction of a mosaic. In a mosaic, each single tile is essential to build a picture, and each single tile is meaningful when lodged in the appropriate position. I offer a reassessment of the debate on manipulationist theories of causation to show how to build a causal mosaic.