The concept of variation in causal discovery
This document discusses the concept of variation in causal discovery and reasoning. It argues that causal discovery relies on the analysis of differences and variations. There are three main types of causal reasoning - ordinary, experimental, and statistical - but they all depend on the evaluation of variations, whether comparing counterfactual scenarios, manipulating putative causes, or studying associations across different levels of exposure. The foundations of this variational approach are traced back to thinkers like Mill and Durkheim, who emphasized the importance of comparing instances where phenomena do and do not occur to establish causal relations. Regularities alone are not sufficient for causal learning; we need variations to detect the factors that make a difference.
More Related Content
Similar to The concept of variation in causal discovery
The concept of variation in causal discovery
- 1. The concept ofvariation in causal discovery Or, why causality needs difference Federica Russo Dipartimento di Studi Umanistici, Università di Ferrara https://blogs.kent.ac.uk/federica
- 2. Overview Causal reasoning and‘variational’ epistemology Ordinary, experimental, statistical Foundations of variational reasoning Mill, Durkheim Why difference? Why (not) regularity? Learning causes and the role of regularity 2
- 3.
- 4. ‘Ordinary’ causes “Had Ileft home earlier, I wouldn’t have missed the flight” Pin down the cause to understand why something did (not) occur 4
- 5. ‘Experimental’ causes Hypothesise thefunction of a gene, say TP53 Knock out that gene Observe changes in appearance, behaviour, physical & biochemical characteristics Reconstruct mechanisms to understand disease causation and act in response to that knowledge 5
- 6. ‘Statistical’ causes Gather alarge number of observations, organise them in variables E.g. socio-biological characteristics (exposure) and cancer rates (disease) Study the (in)dependencies between variables, robustness and stability of correlations Establish stable patterns of (in)dependencies to identify risk factors and possible interventions 6
- 7.
- 8. Different questions, differentanswers What is causation? What are causes? What does causality / cause mean? How do we find out about causes? What notions guide causal reasoning? What to do with causes? How to use causal knowledge? Metaphysics / Semantics / Conceptual analysis Epistemology / Methodology Use 8
- 9.
- 10. Different questions, differentanswers What is causation? What are causes? What does causality / cause mean? How do we find out about causes? What notions guide causal reasoning? What to do with causes? How to use causal knowledge? Metaphysics / Semantics / Conceptual analysis Epistemology / Methodology Use 10
- 11. THE RATIONALE OFVARIATION 11
- 12. Causal discovery isreasoning about variations. To establish causes we need difference. 12
- 13. ‘Ordinary’ variations “Had Ileft home earlier, I wouldn’t have missed the flight” Leaving home on time / late makes a difference to missing the flight Counterfactual reasoning: search for the element changing the chain of events 13
- 14. ‘Experimental’ variations “Knock outTP53 and observe what happens to cell division or apoptosis” Change putative causal factors to see what changes (don’t) follow. Experimental reasoning: search for those manipulable factors changing causal structures 14
- 15. ‘Statistical’ variations “Gather dataabout socio-economic status, occupation, diet, smoking behaviour and see how steadily they are associated with cancer” Study how variations in exposure are related to variations in disease. How different levels of exposure change the probability of disease. Statistical reasoning: search for those factors explaining the variance of the outcome. 15
- 16.
- 17. Variations in MillAgreement: comparingdifferent instances in which the phenomenon occurs. Difference: comparing instances in which the phenomenon does occur with similar instances in which it does not. Residues: subducting from any given phenomenon all the portions which can be assigned to known causes, the remainder will be the effect of the antecedents which had been overlooked or of which the effect was as yet an un-known quantity. Concomitant Variation: in presence of permanent causes or indestructible natural agents that are impossible either to exclude or to isolate, we can neither hinder them from being present nor contrive that they shall be present alone. Comparison between concomitant variations will enable us to detect the causes. Mill (1843), System of Logic The experimental method is based on the Baconian rule of varying the circumstances The Four Methods are all based on the evaluation of variations 17
- 18. Variations in Durkheim Durkheim(1897), Le suicide A study into the variability of suicide rate. A search for the causes making suicide rate vary. Durkheim (1885), Les règles de la méthode sociologique The method of concomitant variations makes sociology scientific. 18
- 19.
- 20. Regular causes? Day followsnight, night follows day Days follow nights regularly Day and night are different It is the variation from day to night and night to day that is regular Search for the element that makes C↣E regular 20
- 21. Epistemology / methodology No causation withoutvariation Problem: ? Effects of Islamic culture on gender equality ? Consider only Islamic countries No variations detected! Compare Islamic with non-Islamic cultures Variations can be detected > variations assessed > causal relations established We can’t detect causal relations in populations too homogeneous too heterogeneous To detect causal relations we need variation, change, difference 21
- 22.
- 23. Learning ‘ordinary’ causes ‘Humean’causal learning Instances of smoke follow instances of fire Can’t establish logical, necessary link Create expectation, project causal belief onto the future Studies in causal cognition: we learn causal relations From covariation Manipulating difference-makers We learn from difference, before regularity 23
- 24. Learning ‘scientific’ causes Causaldiscovery (experiments, statistics) Search for differences Probability of the outcome given the cause; effects of manipulations; … Explain a phenomenon by appealing to causes Most causes are ‘difference-makers’ in mechanisms regulating health and behaviour. Variation at the basis of causal methodology 24
- 25. Regularity too Statistical regularity Causalmethodology needs regularity as a constraint on variations, differences Regular causal relations are ‘generic’ Population-level, repeatable Hence we need regularity to establish generic level 25
- 26. SUM UP ANDCONCLUDE 26
- 27. Metaphysics / Conceptual Analysis •What is causation? • What are causes? • What does causality / cause mean? Epistemology / Methodology • How do we find out about causes? • What notions guide causal reasoning? Use • What to do with causes? • How to use causal knowledge? 27 Concept of variation in causal reasoning
- 28. The rationale ofvariation… … underpins causal discovery Ordinary Experimental Statistical Variation, difference the common denominator of various forms of causal reasoning 28
- 29. Causal discovery isreasoning about variations. To establish causes we need difference. 29
- 30. Further ‘variational’ readings RussoF. (2009). Causality and Causal Modelling in the Social Sciences. Measuring Variations. Springer. Russo F. (2011). Correlational data, causal hypotheses, and validity. Journal for General Philosophy of Science, 42(1), 85-107. Russo F. (2012). On empirical generalisations. In D. Dieks, W.J. Gonzalez, S. Hartmann, M. Stoeltzner, M. Weber (eds), Probabilities, Laws, and Structures, 133-150, Springer. Russo F. (2009). Variational causal claims in epidemiology, Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 52(4), 540-554. Russo F. (2006). The rationale of variation in methodological and evidential pluralism. Philosophica, 77. Special Issue on Causal Pluralism, 97-124. Illari P. and Russo F. Causality: Philosophical Theory Meets Scientific Practice. Oxford University Press. Almost in press! 30