The growth market mobile broadband business model
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Presented at the 5th Annual Mobile Network Evolution Conference, Singapore 23 March 2010.
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The growth market mobile broadband business model
- 1. The growth market broadband business model 5th Annual Mobile Network Evolution Conference, Singapore 23 March 2010. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen International Network Economics, Technology, T-Mobile.
- 3. High-speed internet access everywhere. CS Voice 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Note Ultimate performance will depend on available spectrum bandwidth, carrier-aggregation and link-budget. 3G UMTS/HSPA NGMN The mobile broadband evolution Voice GPRS UMTS HSDPA HSPA+ NGMN < 0.128 < 0.384 < 14 1 < 48+ 1 < 200+ 1 0.014 10 1 27 1,000 4,000 14,000 Speed in Mbps GPRS
- 8. Why NGMN in growth markets (and anywhere else). Higher efficiency. Better connected. New business. Mitigate 3G capacity crunch. Growth markets in Asia. HH 1 2008: 30+%, 200+ mn and 2014: 50+% and 500+ mn. 2G 3G PC penetration Broadband access GPRS EDGE UMTS HSPA LTE 1 1:3 1:5 <1:300 <1:3000 today 1 Cost per Mega Byte.
- 9. Broadband wireless access vision. Technology enables Connected Life and Work … At home. On the move. At work. Connecting the next 1 billion un-connected.
- 11. Speeding towards a 3G traffic jam? Customer adaptation. 2 15 MHz @ 1800 MHz spectrum. 2 10 MHz @ 2.1 GHz spectrum. 2G 3G 4G 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2008A 2010F 2012F 2014F 2016F 2018F 2020F 2022F 2024F Asian mobile operator with 13 million customers and ca. 15% market share. 0 10 20 30 0 5 10 15 -40 -20 0 20 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 -20 -10 0 10 DL+UL DL / UL DL+UL DL / UL 3G capacity crunch 4G 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
- 14. Legacy mobile operator
- 17. Greenfield attacker business model
- 21. Summary. NGMN can mitigate the 3G traffic jam. NGMN attacks (poor) fixed broadband services with wireless DSL, nomadic & mobile services. Greenfield operators likely to become growth limited without additional spectrum.
- 22. Thank you very much! Acknowledgement: Michael Lai (P1 Malaysia), Minoo Abedi, Dirk Sch ö neboom, Stefan Wilhelm, Zhou Yi, Alan Yeo, Jordan Yeo, Denis Gautheret and many other talented colleagues in DTAG. Contact: [email_address] Tel: +31 6 2409 5202 http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen
Editor's Notes
- Very often, it is claimed – especially from Femtocell equipment vendors – that Femtos enable ‘huge savings” in the macro network and only by this make the business case! So, we decided to take a closer look! Please mind: The DFP data demand (Kim Larsen) has been used as input. Further we used the Network Economic RAN and Femto cost model for this calculation. Please also mind that this is a strategic analysis, i.e. that the modelled cost increase due to traffic demand is not aligned with local budgets (click)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- … to summarize….
- … to summarize….
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)
- … to summarize….
- Thank you very much….
- We assume that only those “heavy users” will get a Femto. (Please mind that this is an important assumption. As in reality not every heavy user is likely to accept a Femto – he may not like the concept or does not have the necessary broadband subscription– our cost saving calculations should be regarded as an upper limit ! Now we know the number of Femtos, which need to be deployed in each year. We look into the Femto cost model (click – Femto TCO curve is blinking) and get the cost of Femto deployment for each year. As even with a deployment of Femtocells, the traffic in the macro network will continue to grow, we again have to look in RAN model and calulate the increase in TCO of the Macro network compared to the base year, this time however including the offload effect of Femtos. (click – Macro TCO curve - incl. Femto – is blinking) The upgrade costs of the Macro network which occur despite Femto deployment have to be added on top of the costs of the femto deployment itself. These total costs incurred by Femtos can now be compared to the costs without Femtos (thus the Macro upgrade costs stand alone) So - (click: animation starts – bottom graph appears)