This document discusses technology forecasting and planning. It outlines various methods for scanning the environment, forecasting technologies, developing technology roadmaps, and integrating business and technology strategies. These include expert opinions using the Delphi method, trend analysis, modeling, and scenario analysis. The document also describes frameworks for technology auditing, assessing a technology portfolio, and the role of the chief technology officer in technology forecasting and strategic planning.

1. Technology forecasting and
planning
Draft the technology roadmap &
Invest strategically

2. Scanning before forecasting &
planning

3. Strategic technology planning
 Forecasting technology
 Analyze and diagnose the environment
 Analyze and predict the market and customer
trend and change of trend
 Analyze the internal organization
 Sketch the vision & mission
 Re-design the organizational structure and activity
 Execute the plan through operations

4. Output of planning
 A process of top-down & bottom-up dialogue
 Decision alternatives—courses of action
 Proposed schema—key entities & relations
 Budgeting for R&D, marketing & production
 Distribution criteria for appropriate proportions

Long-term: basic research for breakthrough, applied
research based on a specific purpose, pioneering or
experimental design & development of 1st stage R&D

Short-term: 2nd R&D on the fabrication, 3rd stage on
the commercial design, module manufacturing

5. The key attributes in
technology forecasting
 Performance growth
 Complexity, efficiency, capacity, size, accuracy,
compactness
 Substitution possibility & speed, paradigm shift or
trajectory evolution
 Penetration share
 Diffusion rate
 Allergy, deviation, enforcement, self-reinforcement
 Breakthrough possibility & timing
 Value cluster

6. Critical technologies
 Categories
 Material
 Advanced manufacturing
 Information & communication
 Biotech & living science
 Aerospace & transportation
 Energy & environmental ecology
 User dimensions
 National critical technologies—long-term basic research
 Business/commercial emerging technologies
 DOD’s Defense critical technology—specific purposes
and outer-space exploration

7. Technology forecasting
methods
 Surveillance
 Scan the environment and link to the source of innovation for quick
adjustment & adoption
 Expert opinions
 Use the Delphi method to converge the common focus/foci
 Trend analysis
 Trace the time-series data and identify the evolutionary pattern and the
driving forces
 Modeling
 Articulate a forecasting function composed several critical influencers
 Scenario analysis
 Preview possible events and evolution patterns

8. Japan technology forecasts
based on the Delphi method

9. Japan technology forecasts
for core technologies

10. Technology road map
 Time horizontal evolution
 Technological relatedness
 Application extension

11. Technology audit model
1. Technology environment
2. Technology classification
3. Analyze the market and customer
4. Evaluate the innovation process
5. Analyze the value-added activity
6. Analyze the technology pool &
technology acquisition

12. Technology environment
1. Leadership for technology
championship & pioneering research
2. Phase with the business strategy
3. Organizational level
4. Culture of learning, communication and
innovation
5. Staffing system for innovation incentive

13. Technology classification
1. Product/process technology
 Internal/external source, base/core, changes
1. Back-office technology
 Internal/external technologies of administration,
supporting, and logistics
1. Marketing technology
 Marketing systems
 Integrative communication of product & service

14. Analyze the market and
customer
1. Market requirement
 Assess the market
growth/capacity/segments
 Evaluate the marketing performance
1. Competitor position
 Strength/weakness comparison
 Benchmarking

15. Evaluate the innovation
process
1. Idea formation
 Intrepreneurship
 Entrepreneurship
1. Technology generation
 Technology push—technology inspiration
 Market pull—market insight
1. Idea fulfillment
 Time to market, break-even point

16. Analyze the value-added
activity
1. R&D
 Team management, investment portfolio, risk
management, experience effect, synergy effect
1. Operation
 Production/marketing enhancement
1. Environmentalism
 Investigate user’s behavior of product disposal
 Green product & continuous business concept

17. Analyze the technology pool &
technology acquisition
1. Acquisition methods and performance
 Internal development
 External reciprocate collaboration in
research/production/marketing
 Investment in the stick share
1. Technology transfer
 Transfer procedures
 Internal/external staff rotation
 Explicit/implicit dimension of know-how
1. Profit exploitation
 Sunk cost analysis
 Technology archive

18. Planning according to TLC
time
Performance
current
Selective
divestment
emerging growing mature decline
surveillance
Selective
investment
System
ic
establish
Core
technology
Base
technology
Phase-in
technology

19. Integration of business
strategy & technology strategy
Busines
s
segment
& position
Technolog
y segment &
position
Strategy
audit
Reviewing
Business
environment
Reviewing
Technology
environment
Impacted
business
Impacted
technology
Strategic
alternative
formation
Strategic
choice &
resource
deployment
Strategy
execution
Strategic
control
B-tech approach

20. The role of CTO
 Forecast technology and analyze the business
goals
 Develop the corporate technology capability
 Maintain the sustainable profit and creativity of
technology portfolio
 Develop informal and formal alliance network of
technology
 Execute technology auditing
 Technology transfer and protection
 As a technology gatekeeper for anti-leakage of
technology and proactive acquisition

21. ASSETS structured thinking
about technology
 Assess current situation
 gap analysis
 Specify technology strategy
 Expected future
 Select technology portfolio
 Prioritize the candidates
 Execute technology investments
 Establish the task force
 Transfer results for deployment
 Configuration for profit
 Secure long-term position
 Evaluation and learning for capability

22.  Checking the sampling process
 Preparation of questionnaire
 Pilot survey
 Fix procedures
 Use of competent manpower
 Provide information
 Provide training
 Use of experts
 Checking data processing and analysis