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Example of a Technology Roadmap:
Competing Display Technologies
TechnologyTechnology 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
LCD
FED
PDP
OEL
DMD
12.1” 14” 15” 17” 20”
$50~60/in < 14” $15~20/in
< 16” $25~30/in
> 17” $30 ~ 35/in
matches CRT
•Largest size
•Cost-effective
increasing gradually
~ $35/in $20~25/in•OEM cost/in
•Readability
•Cost-eff size
•OEM cost/in
4” mono 6” color 15” color
end of 2005
gradual
milestone
high-end military/
avionics
accelerating
military use easier to increase size
than for LCD
cost/inch drops rapidly
•Cost-eff size
•OEM cost
•Selling below cost
to gain market
share
21”
@$8000
32”
@$5000
42”
@$4200
60”
@$5000
nothing yet
commercialized
multicolor,
low information
content
6”
hand-held
PC
full color
full color displays
[normal up to 10”]
•Cost is uncertain
very
expensive
low yields
60”
large
screen
yield improvements
&
resolution
improvements
focus research needed
$5~10/inch
passive matrix
CRT
•Largest cost
effective size 35”~40”
Flat CRTs >2005
(not in Digital TV)
TechnologyTechnology 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
LCD
FED
PDP
OEL
DMD
12.1” 14” 15” 17” 20”
$50~60/in < 14” $15~20/in
< 16” $25~30/in
> 17” $30 ~ 35/in
matches CRT
•Largest size
•Cost-effective
increasing gradually
~ $35/in $20~25/in•OEM cost/in
•Readability
•Cost-eff size
•OEM cost/in
4” mono 6” color 15” color
end of 2005
gradual
milestone
high-end military/
avionics
accelerating
military use easier to increase size
than for LCD
cost/inch drops rapidly
•Cost-eff size
•OEM cost
•Selling below cost
to gain market
share
21”
@$8000
32”
@$5000
42”
@$4200
60”
@$5000
nothing yet
commercialized
multicolor,
low information
content
6”
hand-held
PC
full color
full color displays
[normal up to 10”]
•Cost is uncertain
very
expensive
low yields
60”
large
screen
yield improvements
&
resolution
improvements
focus research needed
$5~10/inch
passive matrix
CRT
•Largest cost
effective size 35”~40”
Flat CRTs >2005
(not in Digital TV)
Scenario A
Technology Roadmap](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/tmitpprocess-180312074601/85/Integrated-Technology-Planning-Process-52-320.jpg)
Uploaded byChulho Park
Integrated Technology Planning Process
This document outlines Dr. Chulho Park's integrated technology planning process. It discusses (1) conducting background research on a company's current status and key industry driving forces, (2) using scenario planning to develop potential future scenarios, and (3) identifying attractive technology opportunities through scenario analysis and an opportunity search. The process aims to provide companies with tools and frameworks to strategically manage their technology and integrate it with business planning.
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Integrated Technology Planning Process
- 1. 1 Integrated Technology PlanningProcess Prepared for: Technology Management and Commercialization Training Workshop Prepared by: Dr. Chulho Park Vice President Strategic Business Insights December 2017
- 2. 2 Introduction of SBI’sTechnology Management Process
- 3. 3 Technology Management AddressesCritical Business Questions How fast is your business changing? What role is technology playing? How can you use and develop technology to your advantage? How do you make it happen? SBI’s Integrated Technology Management System provides tools, practices, and processes that help companies manage technology to achieve a strategic advantage.
- 4. 4 The Technology ManagementArena Spans the Business Environment External Environment Drivers and Dynamics Business Vision and Strategy Management, Organizational Structure, Internal Systems, External Relationships Results: - Products - Processes - Services Technology Projects Technology Portfolio Technology Strategy
- 5. 5 Two Types ofTechnology Management Issues 1. Sophisticated, user-friendly tools that provide answers to company problems. Examples: What should our technology strategy be? How shall we commercialize a new technology? Where are the best opportunities for growth? 2. A tailored set of practices that enhance company capabilities in the Technology Management arena. Examples: What can we learn from best practices in other industries? Where are the major gaps in our practices? How can we implement improvements that last?
- 6. 6 Answers to Specific CompanyProblems
- 7. 7 Effective Answers areCreated by Both Divergent and Convergent Processes Issue Strategy and Action Creative Qualitative Conceptual Possibilities Analytic Quantitative Specific Constraints
- 8. 8 BusinessVision Technology Strategy Project Portfolio ActionPlans Expand Perspectives Rank, Sort, and Select Execution Options Portfolio Options Environment and Opportunities Linked ProcessesGenerate Increasingly Specific Technology Management Answers
- 9. 9 Answers Must BeDeveloped through a Variety of Tools Customized for the Company TOOL 2 Opportunity Search Scenario C “Envelope of Uncertainty” Scenario A Scenario B Scenario D Single Point Forecast TOOL 1 Scenarios TOOL 3 Technology Roadmap Action Plan 1. Targets 2. Steps 3. Monitoring 4. Adapting 1 2 13 • • • • • • • Technology Clusters TOOL 4 Portfolio Selection and Action Plan Strategy Objectives A B C Strategy Objectives A B C Strategy Objectives A B C EXAMPLE TOOLS: Technologies Products/ Markets
- 10. 10 Certain Tools HelpDevelop Technology Strategy . . . Technology Strategy BusinessVision Benchmarking Best Practices Scenario Planning External/ Competitive Assessment Internal/ Capabilities Assessment Market Scanning Technology Management Diagnostic Technology Scanning High-Level Technology-Market Roadmapping Options Analysis
- 11. 11 Project Portfolio Other Tools Buildon the Technology Strategy to Develop a Project Portfolio . . . Innovation/ Opportunity Search Technology Scouting Assessment of Customer Needs and Acceptance of Technology Internal Capabilities Vs. External Sources Detailed Tech-Market Roadmapping Portfolio Selection Options Analysis Technology Strategy
- 12. 12 Partnering Project Planning ActionPlans Still Others Convertthe Project Portfolio into Action Plans Project Management Quality Management Cycle-Time Management Team Building Measurement and Evaluation Project Portfolio
- 13. 13 Case Example: Scenario-Based StrategicPlanning Issues: • Growth • Market Position • Internal Synergy Action, Monitoring, and Adjustment Strategies Plans Evaluate Analyze Outlooks Trends Driving Forces Influence Maps Scenarios Strategy Alignment Strategy Maps A B C D Portfolio Selection Critical Success Factors Competitor Analysis Technology Roadmaps Threats & Opportunities
- 14. 14 Case Example: Task Flowfor Scenario-Based Strategic Planning Task 1 Kick-Off Meeting Task 3 Scenario Workshop I Task 4 Scenario Workshop II Task 7 Action Initiatives Workshop Task 2 “Trends” Workshop Task 8 Final Report (Strategic Plan) Task 5 Implications Workshop Task 6 Strategy Selection Workshop
- 15. 15 Practices to Enhance CompanyCapabilities
- 16. 16 Integrated Approach toImproving a Company’s Technology Management Capabilities “Gaps” “Practices” Relative Ratings “Best Practices” Client/SBIWorkshops Improvement Plan Benchmarking Leaders Practices Knowledge Base Internal Diagnostic
- 17. 17 The Internal DiagnosticSets the Stage and Identifies Key Issues . . . Structured Interviews and Workshops Observations Quick Hits Themes for Project Key Performance Issues
- 18. 18 . . .Starting With a Set of “Strawman” Issues Aligning technology response with business strategy Building the infrastructure for a business-driven approach Establishing a technology priority system Positioning IT as an enabler and competitive vehicle Preserving long-term corporate interest Overcoming internal barriers Ensuring timely delivery and application Transferring and supplying technology internally Ensuring the ability to absorb leading technologies Sharing and leveraging knowledge across the organization Creating the next human resource model for technology Uncovering and commercializing new opportunities Identifying and managing special initiatives Leveraging technology joint ventures, alliances, and external sources Managing technology across international borders
- 19. 19 A Company’s KeyIssues Can Fall Anywhere within the Technology Management Arena External Environment Drivers and Dynamics Business Vision and Strategy Management, Organizational Structure, Internal Systems, External Relationships Results: - Products - Processes - Services Technology Projects Technology Portfolio Technology Strategy Alignment Leveraging JVs Knowledge Sharing Internal Barriers Timely Delivery Project Selection
- 20. 20 Best Practices arethe Pieces of a Puzzle that Combine to Improve Performance
- 21. 21 Practices Need toBe Customized for Each Company’s Particular Environment A's Bus. Environment B's Bus. Environment Company B Company A
- 22.
- 23. 23 Technology Management Framework Knowledgeof External Drivers and Dynamics Infrastructure: Organization, Resources, Processes Technology Planning R&D Project Management Business Vision and Strategy • Benchmarking • Scenarios • Market Research • Competitive Analysis Technology Portfolio Planning Project Portfolio Selection Budgeting and Resource Allocation Project Initiation Project Execution Project Management • Management Diagnostic • Structure and Teaming • HR Management • IT & Knowledge Management • Cycle-Time Management • External Network Management Ideation Technology Acquisition Strategy Project Closeout • SWOT Analysis • Technology Intelligence Technology Commercialization Technology and IP
- 24. 24 Knowledge of ExternalDrivers and Dynamics Infrastructure: Organization, Resources, Processes Intellectual Property Management Value Creation and Management Business Vision and Strategy • Benchmarking • Scenarios • Market Research • Competitive Analysis Technology Valuation IP Portfolio Planning Budgeting & Resource Allocation Technology Licensing Venture Creation Sell, M&A, JV, Alliance • Management Diagnostic • Structure and Teaming • Profit Sharing Model • Business Plan and Model • Venture Financing • External Expert Management Ideation Technology Commercialization Strategy Internal Use • SWOT Analysis • Technology Intelligence Return on InvestmentTechnology and Intellectual Property New Business Portfolio Technology Commercialization Framework
- 25. 25 Knowledge of ExternalDrivers and Dynamics Infrastructure: Organization, Resources, Processes Technology Planning R&D Project Management Business Vision and Strategy • Benchmarking • Scenarios • Market Research • Competitive Analysis Technology Portfolio Planning Project Portfolio Selection Budgeting and Resource Allocation Project Initiation Project Execution Project Management • Management Diagnostic • Structure and Teaming • HR Management • IT & Knowledge Management • Cycle-Time Management • External Network Management Ideation Technology Acquisition Strategy Project Closeout • SWOT Analysis • Technology Intelligence Knowledge of External Drivers and Dynamics Infrastructure: Organization, Resources, Processes • Benchmarking • Scenarios • Market Research • Competitive Analysis • Management Diagnostic • Structure and Teaming • Profit Sharing Model • Business Plan and Model • Venture Financing • External Expert Management • SWOT Analysis • Technology Intelligence Intellectual Property Management Value Creation and Management Technology Valuation IP Portfolio Planning Budgeting & Resource Allocation Technology Licensing Venture Creation Sell, M&A, JV, Alliance Ideation Technology Commercialzn Strategy Internal Use Return on Investment Technology and Intellectual Property Creating IP Assets Turning IP Assets into Value Technology Management Commercialization Management Integrated Framework for a New R&BD Paradigm
- 26. 26 Innovation and OpportunityDiscovery will Be the Critical Components in the New R&BD Paradigm Infrastructure: Organization, Resource, Processes Analysis of External Drivers and Dynamics Commercialization Management IP Asset Management Technology (R&D) Management Company Business Vision and Strategy Opportunity (Value) Discovery Value Development (R&D, BD) Creation of Customer Value and Company Profit Infrastructure: Organization, Resource, Processes Analysis of External Drivers and Dynamics Commercialization Management IP Asset Management Technology (R&D) Management Company Business Vision and Strategy Company Business Vision and Strategy On-going Opportunity Discovery Reaserch and On-going Business Development Creation of Customer Value and Company Profit
- 27. 27 SBI’s Experience ofTechnology Management Process/System Transfer to Asian R&D Institutes Technology Management Diagnostic Technology Management Scenario Planning Opportunity Discovery Process Integrated Technology Planning Technology Roadmapping Commercialization Strategy and Management Technology Intelligence Scan Process New Product Concept Development Innovation Management and Value Creation
- 28.
- 29. 29 A Framework forSBI’s Scenario-Based Integrated Technology Planning and Roadmapping Strategy and Roadmap Development Background Information Company’s Current Status Industry Status and Key Driving Forces t i Baseline product technologies Baseline process technologies Prod ucts/ Mark ets Enhancing/Sustaining Displa cing Disru ptive X X Enabli ng Interaction Scenario Planning Opportunity Search Business Needs Scenarios Technology Possibilities A B C Edited List of Technologies Attractive Possible Technologies Preliminary Screen Business Needs Scenarios Technology Possibilities A B C Edited List of Technologies Attractive Possible Technologies Preliminary Screen Signpost and Technology Intelligence Signpost Scan FocusWatch Study Act SRIC-BI’s Intelligence Framework Scan FocusWatch Study Act ScanScan FocusFocusWatchWatch StudyStudy ActAct SRIC-BI’s Intelligence Framework Opportunity Profiling Technology Intelligence Strategy Roadmap Step 2 Identify Key Decision Factors Step 3 Analyze External Forces/Drivers Step 4 Select Scenario Logics Step 5 Select & Elaborate Scenarios Step 6 Analyze Decision Implications Step 1 Identify Decision Focus and Elements Step 2 Identify Key Decision Factors Step 3 Analyze External Forces/Drivers Step 4 Select Scenario Logics Step 5 Select & Elaborate Scenarios Step 6 Analyze Decision Implications Step 1 Identify Decision Focus and Elements
- 30. 30 Industry Statusand Key Driving Forces – Building Blocks of the Technology or Technology Tree – Structure of the Industry – Commercial Development Parameters – Issues and Uncertainties – Implications for Commercialization – Market Projections Company’s Status – Strategic Vision and Goals – Business Strategy and Product Portfolio – Technology Strategy and R&D Portfolio – Core Technologies and Core Competencies – Resources Key Elements of Background Information Background Information
- 31. 31 Sample Format ofIndustry Status and Key Driving Forces Based on SBI’s Explorer Program Issues and Uncertainties Building Blocks of the Technology Smart Spaces Privacy Human- Computer Interfaces Security Intelligent Agents Software Productivity Standards and Interoperability Context Awareness Business Models Medium High Low Impact MediumLow High Uncertainty Wireless Networks Commercial Development Parameters Required Resources • Partnering Capabilities • IT Expertise • Spectrum Licenses • Funding for Research and Development Regulatory Factors • Privacy • Security • Liability Competing Technologies • Current Computing Environment • Human Tools General Constraints • Value Capture • Standards and Interoperability • Storage and Scalability • Cost Demand Factors • Military and Government • Industrial/Commercial • Consumer • Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to Machine, Machine to Environment) • Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi) • Miniature Power Sources • Ubiquitous Embedded Processing • Software Architecture • Identification of Nodes 5 4 3 2 1 Synergistic Technologies Implications Markets and Applications 2002 2007 2012 Hardware (Enabling Components) Software (Systems) Services (Applications) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Billions of Dollars Players and Structure of the Industry Systems • Network Infrastructure — Cisco — Siemens • Software Architecture — SRI International — IBM Corporation — HP Laboratories — PARC • Standards — BluetoothSIG — IETF — IEEE Added Value Enabling Components • Basic Node Components — Intel — Motorola — Hitachi • Interface Nodes — Speech Works — Philips Speech Processing — Nuance • Work Nodes — Palm — Sunbeam — Matsushita Electric • Mobile Autonomous Swarms — Crossbow Technologies — Xybernaut • Smart Spaces — Display Edge T echnology — Symbol T echnologies — Nokia — NTT DoCoMo • Personal Networks — Sensatex — Sony — MITMedia Lab Applications Pervasive Computing Implications of Commercialization A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in the industry. A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes. A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production. A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge. C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials. • Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization Emerging Commercial Opportunities • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Application for Nanotechnologies • High-Throughput Screening Improvements • Progress of Combinatorial Methods • Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free Synthesis • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Product Formulation Improved by Biopolymers • Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods and Nutraceuticals • Consumer Preferences Move toward Convenience Foods and Functional and Nutraceutical Foods A New technologies will lead to novel biopolymers. B Biopolymers enhance food qualities and production. Background Information
- 32. 32 Coverage of theEnvelope of Uncertainty Scenario C “Envelope of Uncertainty” Scenario A Scenario B Scenario D Single Point Forecast Developing three to four structurally-different alternatives about the future, that are at the edge of the envelope of uncertainty, allows us to cover the uncertainty facing management in a doable manner Scenario Planning
- 33. 33 Six Steps inSBI’s Scenario Development Methodology Step 2 Identify Key Decision Factors Step 3 Analyze External Forces/Drivers Step 4 Select Scenario Logics Step 5 Select & Elaborate Scenarios Step 6 Analyze Decision Implications Step 1 Identify Decision Focus and Elements Scenario Planning
- 34. 34 Step 1: IdentifyDecision Focus and Elements Corporate strategic decisions with long-term consequences and major uncertainties become the focal points for scenario development Work with company management and /or scenario team to specify key long-term decisions for which scenarios are to be developed Identify key elements of these decisions Scenario Planning
- 35. 35 Step 2: IdentifyKey Decision Factors Specify the key factors (external or internal) that affect the outcome of the decisions, e.g.: – Market size, growth, and volatility – Competing products and technological substitutes – Economic conditions and price trends – Capital availability and cost – Human, material, and other resources The more that is known about the status of these factors, the better the quality of the decision will be Focus on identifying these factors helps to ensure that the scenarios are correctly focused Scenario Planning
- 36. 36 Step 3: AnalyzeKey External Forces/Drivers Identify the key external forces that determine the future status of the key decision factors – Micro forces: trends in the market and industry such as shifts in customer needs, restructuring of competition, new technology – Macro drivers: broad social, economic, political, and technological forces such as demographic trends, economic growth and development, trade patterns, political shifts Assess these forces/drivers for their level of impact and degree of uncertainty The objective is to use the highest-impact forces, highest-uncertainty forces to construct the story-lines of the scenarios Scenario Planning
- 37. 37 Step 3: AnalyzeKey External Forces/Drivers LevelofImpact Degree of Uncertainty High Medium Low HighMediumLow “High Impact/High Uncertainty” Forces Differentiate the Scenarios “High Impact/Low Uncertainty” Forces Do Not Differentiate the Scenarios Multiple Scenario-Based Technology Roadmapping Approach Single Scenario-Based Technology Roadmapping Approach Ignore “Low Impact” Forces Scenario Planning
- 38. 38 Step 4: SelectScenario Logics Select several “logics” (including major axes of uncertainty) to serve as the structure for the Scenarios – e.g., deregulation or re-regulation; world moves toward protectionism or further free trade; high or low energy price; high or low product demand growth Logics are coherent, plausible views of different ways in which “the world might work” These logics should (1) be based on the critical external forces/drivers, and (2) encompass the full range of uncertainty that is to be factored into decision-making Scenario Planning
- 39. 39 Step 5: Selectand Elaborate Scenarios Examine combinations of the logic outcomes for potential scenarios Select a set of scenarios (normally 3-4) for detailed elaboration – The aim should be to cover as much as possible of the “envelope of planning uncertainty” Describe each selected scenario in terms of its macro drivers, micro (industry, market) forces and the outcomes for the key decision factors – Use story lines, tabular descriptions, graphs, tables of quantified data, etc Scenario Planning
- 40. 40 Step 5: Selectand Elaborate Scenarios Criteria for Scenario Selection The scenarios are plausible: i.e., they fall within the limits of what might reasonable be expected to happen They are structurally different: i.e., they are not simply variations of a base case They are internally consistent: i.e., no scenario has any built-in inconsistencies that undermine its credibility They have utility: i.e., each scenario (and all the scenarios together) is useful for identifying strategies and for testing the robustness of strategy alternatives The scenario set should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. Scenario Planning
- 41. 41 Step 6: AnalyzeDecision Implications Analyze the scenarios to identify their implications for the specified management decision(s) Focus on: – Opportunities and threats for each scenario and across all scenarios – Critical issues emerging from the scenarios Evaluate implications for strategy considerations and options Scenario Planning
- 42. 42 Managers Immerse Themselvesin Each Scenario Scenario A What would be the threats and opportunities? • • • What technology strategy and actions would we implement? • • • What are the business needs in this scenario? • • • Scenario D Scenario C Scenario B What if we knew this scenario would occur? A B C ? Scenarios Strategy and Action Decision Focus AA BB CC ? Scenarios Strategy and Action Decision Focus Scenario Planning Detailed stories are created to describe what the future would be like under each scenario.
- 43. 43 Business Needsin FED – Rapid growth of applications market (size and diversity), including military/aerospace niche markets – Collaboration with other members of business partner companies – Cost reduction (process innovation, line conversion, line sharing, competitor alliances similar to Semitech, equipment manufacturer alliances, etc.) – “Sexy” features for customers (fast image response, true color, high brightness) – High-end small-size products (10” or less) for cost-insensitive markets Business Needs for Other Product Lines – Low-cost CRT production – Large-screen advanced CRT and projection products – Collaboration with other members of the company or other companies – Obtaining medium-sized (10”-30”) FPD product Scenario 1, “Overcome the Costs” Identify Business Needs under Each Scenario Illustrative Only Opportunity Discovery
- 44. 44 Scenario 1, “Overcomethe Costs” Technologies That Can Help Satisfy Each Need Needs Key Technologies - FED 1. Rapid growth of applications market 2. Collaboration Standardization of process equipment/materials Mechanical and electrical standardization 3. Cost reduction (process,conversion,alliances) Modified microtip development New material & process technology for structures High-throughput packaging technology Automation of spacer installation 4. “Sexy” features (fast, color, bright) Phosphor material development Driving algorithm for low power display Spacer technology (invisibility) 5. High-end small-size products (10” or less) Phosphor material for high brightness (military, aerospace) Packaging for long lifetime Identify Technical Needs & Key Technologies to Satisfy the Business Needs in a Scenario Illustrative Only Opportunity Discovery
- 45. 45 Create a Listof Technologies That Lead to Success for Each Scenario Business Needs Scenarios Technology Possibilities A B C Brainstorm a list of technologies that might lead to business success for each scenario. These technologies can be: Technologies critical for achieving success or avoiding failure Enabling or infrastructure technologies. Edit the list to eliminate redundancies and to define technologies in terms of their technical components and tasks they perform. Edited List of Technologies Opportunity Discovery
- 46. 46 The List ofTechnologies To Be Analyzed Must Be Prioritized and Manageable Attractive Possible Technologies Preliminary Screen Edited List of Technologies Shorten the list of technologies to 10 to 20 well-defined possibilities using a preliminary screen that addresses the two most important factors we can agree on. Typical screening criteria are: Likelihood of success—might this technology be implemented in the time frame under consideration? Importance—is this technology truly important to our future success? Opportunity Discovery
- 47. 47 Opportunity Profiles Basedon SRI’s NABC Approach Opportunity Profiling A simple “NABC” approach can be used for profiling, communication, validation, and promotion of an opportunity Important Needs Unique Approach Customer Benefits Dynamic Competition Next Steps, Action Plan Customer needs, market and product needs, or technical needs Compelling and unique technical and/or business approach Competitive advantages and disadvantages to technology/market leaders Current status and issues, and next step or action plan Customer benefits and company/R&D benefits
- 48. 48 Moving from Scenariosto Strategy to Action Decision Focus Action plus Monitoring, Progress, and Performance Metrics A B C Scenario Signposts Business Needs and Success Factors Strategy Alternatives Strategy Selection Gaps and Plans Technology Strategy
- 49. 49 Each Strategy AlternativeIs Evaluated Using the Key Success Factors Identify and prioritize key success factors by which to evaluate strategy alternatives. Evaluate each strategy alternative against the key success factors under each scenario. These factors become potential performance metrics. Technology Strategy
- 50. 50 Robust: Designedto provide satisfactory results under all scenarios – Considerations: Lower risk; higher cost; may not be optimal for any scenario. Rigid: Designed to provide greatest success under the preferred scenario that takes best advantage of current position and resources – Considerations: High upside potential; higher risk; lower cost. Flexible: Designed to preserve flexibility until it becomes more apparent which scenario will occur or how key uncertainties are resolved – Considerations: Lower risk but might miss opportunities; moderate cost; requires significant intelligence and monitoring effort. Influence: Attempt to use resources to bring about desirable scenario – Considerations: Requires understanding of forces behind scenarios that can be influenced; higher cost. Broad Strategy Considerations for Strategy Selection Technology Strategy
- 51. 51 The Steps inScenario-Based Roadmapping 1. Identify Critical Technologies Today and for Future Scenarios (Step 3) – Performance enhancement and new capabilities meeting needs – Multiple uses and dependencies within product areas, industry base – Design and production impacts: Costs, quality, availability, reliability, etc. 2. Define Technology Directions and Dependencies for Each Scenario (Step 4) – Technology driving trend(s) and axes of uncertainty – Critical pacing technologies required to achieve trend(s) or outcomes 3. Develop Roadmaps by Scenario (Steps 5 and 6) – Mutual consistency of advances, including displacing and enabling technologies – Potential disruptive technologies (possible variants) – Check for consistency with basic scenario logics 4. Apply Roadmaps – Use high-level roadmaps in Portfolio Balancing and Project Selection – Expand to detailed roadmaps for development planning and project sequencing – Use both high-level and detailed roadmaps to guide competence development and technology intelligence – Maintain roadmaps as part of Integrated Technology Planning Technology Roadmap
- 52. 52 Example of aTechnology Roadmap: Competing Display Technologies TechnologyTechnology 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 LCD FED PDP OEL DMD 12.1” 14” 15” 17” 20” $50~60/in < 14” $15~20/in < 16” $25~30/in > 17” $30 ~ 35/in matches CRT •Largest size •Cost-effective increasing gradually ~ $35/in $20~25/in•OEM cost/in •Readability •Cost-eff size •OEM cost/in 4” mono 6” color 15” color end of 2005 gradual milestone high-end military/ avionics accelerating military use easier to increase size than for LCD cost/inch drops rapidly •Cost-eff size •OEM cost •Selling below cost to gain market share 21” @$8000 32” @$5000 42” @$4200 60” @$5000 nothing yet commercialized multicolor, low information content 6” hand-held PC full color full color displays [normal up to 10”] •Cost is uncertain very expensive low yields 60” large screen yield improvements & resolution improvements focus research needed $5~10/inch passive matrix CRT •Largest cost effective size 35”~40” Flat CRTs >2005 (not in Digital TV) TechnologyTechnology 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 LCD FED PDP OEL DMD 12.1” 14” 15” 17” 20” $50~60/in < 14” $15~20/in < 16” $25~30/in > 17” $30 ~ 35/in matches CRT •Largest size •Cost-effective increasing gradually ~ $35/in $20~25/in•OEM cost/in •Readability •Cost-eff size •OEM cost/in 4” mono 6” color 15” color end of 2005 gradual milestone high-end military/ avionics accelerating military use easier to increase size than for LCD cost/inch drops rapidly •Cost-eff size •OEM cost •Selling below cost to gain market share 21” @$8000 32” @$5000 42” @$4200 60” @$5000 nothing yet commercialized multicolor, low information content 6” hand-held PC full color full color displays [normal up to 10”] •Cost is uncertain very expensive low yields 60” large screen yield improvements & resolution improvements focus research needed $5~10/inch passive matrix CRT •Largest cost effective size 35”~40” Flat CRTs >2005 (not in Digital TV) Scenario A Technology Roadmap
- 53. 53 Example of aTechnology Roadmap: Products of Competing Display Technologies •PDP: high-end FP •CRT: dominates •LCD14”: not affordable 32” PDP-TV LCD increasing DT display use 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005ProductsProducts NT PC Monitor Hand held PC TV PJ TV Auto- motive 12” LCD 13” LCD size increase 14” LCD --->continues 14” with better brightness +contrast+efficiency strongly LCD increasing share of DT •FED use in autos ---> Inroads by FED LCD very competitive for DT •FEDs in PDAs •OELs in PDAs LCD dominates 42” PDP-TV 60” PDP-TV LCD share drops,winner determined by cost whether OEL can be spin coated DMD digital cinemas •OEL multi-use displays DMD big screen team games •up to 35” CRTs •LCD up to 6” TVs minor inroads by FED 14” LCD Monitor price dropped to get share PDP ultra high -resolution W/S monitor no future DT penetration OELs for smaller multi-use displays •other technologies •DMD very expensive besides presentation projectors •rear projection CRTs LCD home theaters LCD being used in navigation system LCD auto entertainment system •PDP: high-end FP •CRT: dominates •LCD14”: not affordable 32” PDP-TV LCD increasing DT display use 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005ProductsProducts NT PC Monitor Hand held PC TV PJ TV Auto- motive 12” LCD 13” LCD size increase 14” LCD --->continues 14” with better brightness +contrast+efficiency strongly LCD increasing share of DT •FED use in autos ---> Inroads by FED LCD very competitive for DT •FEDs in PDAs •OELs in PDAs LCD dominates 42” PDP-TV 60” PDP-TV LCD share drops,winner determined by cost whether OEL can be spin coated DMD digital cinemas •OEL multi-use displays DMD big screen team games •up to 35” CRTs •LCD up to 6” TVs minor inroads by FED 14” LCD Monitor price dropped to get share PDP ultra high -resolution W/S monitor no future DT penetration OELs for smaller multi-use displays •other technologies •DMD very expensive besides presentation projectors •rear projection CRTs LCD home theaters LCD being used in navigation system LCD auto entertainment system Scenario A Technology Roadmap
- 54. 54 Signposts are Essentialfor Tracking Important External and Internal Developments Start with the high impact, high uncertainty external forces and identify indicators that will help determine if and how the uncertainty is being resolved. Leading indicators provide early signals and evidence of future outcomes. Signposts are measurable descriptions for the indicators that point clearly to a future outcome for the force. Focus intelligence efforts on these signposts. Develop Signposts
- 55. 55 Developing the SignpostsInvolves Four Steps 1. Select the Forces of Importance 2. Identify Indicators for Those Forces 3. Develop Measures for the Indicators 4. Specify Signposts to Watch For Develop Signposts
- 56. 56 “Forces” (Important forces and dynamicsto watch) “Indicators” (Element or condition of “forces” To watch, taken from scenarios)) “Measures” (Events, data, information that define element or condition of “indicators”) “Signposts” (Significant threshold “measures” that are judged to be clear indications) Geopolitics, demographics and economics Emergence of trading blocks China joins WTO China abides by WTO rules and there are no sanction against that country Tariff reductions India, Brazil reduce chemical product duties below $__/T Regulatory/eco-factors Strictness of environmental regulations Global treaties implemented Global CO2 reduction treaty implemented by 2010 EU directives on fuel quality are improved and spread EU fuel quality directives are adopted by other regions, e.g. Eastern Europe, Russia Increasing use of lists (to identify “bad” products) Number of chemical products on toxics lists increase by __% Government support of environment Large government/corporate programs (like PNGV or FreedomCAR) funded Feedstocks Shift to low-cost feedstocks Commodities production moves to energy- rich countries Petrochemicals construction projects and production in energy-rich countries increases from _ to _% of total Technology advances Technology development activity Technology evolves rapidly across large companies Number and % of patents issued to large companies increases from __ to __ ; large companies carve out big new IP areas Government funding available fortechnology development Government R&D funding increases by __% Broad IP protection Shift toward effective worldwide patent system Patent disputes/claims between countries decrease from __ to __ per year Products Product harmonization Shift toward global specifications Multinational companies require suppliers to meet global specs Deselection of flexible PVC and phthalate plasticizers Major companies switch to alternatives Industry/competitors Industry structure Number of commodity producers High-profile chemical companies merge, e.g. SABIC buys Enichem Example Signposts for Another Industry and Company Develop Signposts
- 57. 57 Example: Microtip-Based FEDHas Five Signposts Showing Where Its Path May Go in One Direction or Another Time —> 2000 2001 2002 2004-5 Market & Macro economic Growth (including LCD) High-Voltage Long-Life Phosphor High- Throughput Laser Sealing First-Generation Microtip Commercialized Low-Voltage Long-Life Phosphor Develop Signposts
- 58. 58 Decision-Makers (Intelligence Customers) Intelligence Network FocalPoints Intelligence Network Members Information Search Specialists Information Sources DEFINE FOCUS FOCUS ON INDICATORS, MEASURES, AND SIGNPOSTS TARGET SPECIFIC INFORMATION MEASURE, ANALYZE AND INTERPRET Link to StrategyLink to Decision Link to SourcesLink to Network Experts Journals Associations Information Services UniversitiesInternet Databases Brokers A Comprehensive Intelligence Program Has Clear Linkages and Information Flows Major Tasks Design intelligence process Determine technology focus areas and priorities Develop signposts based on forces, indicators and measures Test process Charter networks Implement a training and communication plan Technology Intelligence
- 59.
- 60. 60 Key Success Factorsof a New Process/System Implementation Strong commitment and support of the client’s top management Consensus building and active participation Practical and proven process/system Flexible process/system to accommodate improvement of process/system learning and staff capability by experience Manual/handbook with many (real) case examples Starting with simple (and flexible) process/system Appropriate budget and time Key staff training of a new process/system
- 61. 61 Lessons Learned andIssues in Implementation Don’t wait to launch a new process/system until a company (or its R&D center) culture changes to accept the new system. By implementing a simple process/system we can start to change the company (or its R&D center) culture. Overcome of “Not-Invented-Here” Collaboration barrier of “Silo Structure” Organizational restructuring for a new process/system Modification of R&D project evaluation, and staff evaluation and rewards (e.g., short-term low-impact low-risk vs. long-term high- impact high-risk) Clear definition of new role, responsibility, and reward Aligning R&D strategy/policy to company strategy/policy