This document outlines Dr. Chulho Park's integrated technology planning process. It discusses (1) conducting background research on a company's current status and key industry driving forces, (2) using scenario planning to develop potential future scenarios, and (3) identifying attractive technology opportunities through scenario analysis and an opportunity search. The process aims to provide companies with tools and frameworks to strategically manage their technology and integrate it with business planning.
1. 1
Integrated Technology Planning Process
Prepared for:
Technology Management and Commercialization
Training Workshop
Prepared by:
Dr. Chulho Park
Vice President
Strategic Business Insights
December 2017
3. 3
Technology Management Addresses Critical Business
Questions
How fast is your business changing?
What role is technology playing?
How can you use and develop technology to your advantage?
How do you make it happen?
SBI’s Integrated Technology Management System
provides tools, practices, and processes that help
companies manage technology to achieve a
strategic advantage.
4. 4
The Technology Management Arena Spans the
Business Environment
External Environment Drivers and Dynamics
Business
Vision and
Strategy
Management, Organizational Structure,
Internal Systems, External Relationships
Results:
- Products
- Processes
- Services
Technology
Projects
Technology
Portfolio
Technology
Strategy
5. 5
Two Types of Technology Management Issues
1. Sophisticated, user-friendly tools that provide
answers to company problems.
Examples:
What should our technology strategy be?
How shall we commercialize a new technology?
Where are the best opportunities for growth?
2. A tailored set of practices that enhance company
capabilities in the Technology Management arena.
Examples:
What can we learn from best practices in other
industries?
Where are the major gaps in our practices?
How can we implement improvements that last?
7. 7
Effective Answers are Created by Both Divergent
and Convergent Processes
Issue
Strategy
and
Action
Creative
Qualitative
Conceptual
Possibilities
Analytic
Quantitative
Specific
Constraints
9. 9
Answers Must Be Developed through a Variety of
Tools Customized for the Company
TOOL 2
Opportunity
Search
Scenario C
“Envelope of Uncertainty”
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario D
Single Point
Forecast
TOOL 1
Scenarios
TOOL 3
Technology
Roadmap
Action Plan
1. Targets
2. Steps
3. Monitoring
4. Adapting
1
2
13
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Technology
Clusters
TOOL 4
Portfolio Selection
and Action Plan
Strategy Objectives
A B
C
Strategy Objectives
A B
C
Strategy Objectives
A B
C
EXAMPLE TOOLS:
Technologies
Products/
Markets
16. 16
Integrated Approach to Improving a Company’s
Technology Management Capabilities
“Gaps”
“Practices”
Relative Ratings
“Best Practices”
Client/SBIWorkshops
Improvement
Plan
Benchmarking
Leaders
Practices
Knowledge Base
Internal
Diagnostic
17. 17
The Internal Diagnostic Sets the Stage and Identifies
Key Issues . . .
Structured
Interviews
and
Workshops
Observations
Quick Hits
Themes for Project
Key Performance Issues
18. 18
. . . Starting With a Set of “Strawman” Issues
Aligning technology response with
business strategy
Building the infrastructure for a
business-driven approach
Establishing a technology priority
system
Positioning IT as an enabler and
competitive vehicle
Preserving long-term corporate
interest
Overcoming internal barriers
Ensuring timely delivery and
application
Transferring and supplying
technology internally
Ensuring the ability to absorb
leading technologies
Sharing and leveraging
knowledge across the
organization
Creating the next human
resource model for technology
Uncovering and commercializing
new opportunities
Identifying and managing special
initiatives
Leveraging technology joint
ventures, alliances, and external
sources
Managing technology across
international borders
19. 19
A Company’s Key Issues Can Fall Anywhere within the
Technology Management Arena
External Environment Drivers and Dynamics
Business
Vision and
Strategy
Management, Organizational Structure,
Internal Systems, External Relationships
Results:
- Products
- Processes
- Services
Technology
Projects
Technology
Portfolio
Technology
Strategy
Alignment
Leveraging
JVs
Knowledge
Sharing Internal
Barriers
Timely
Delivery
Project
Selection
23. 23
Technology Management Framework
Knowledge of External Drivers and Dynamics
Infrastructure: Organization, Resources, Processes
Technology Planning
R&D Project Management
Business
Vision and
Strategy
• Benchmarking
• Scenarios
• Market Research
• Competitive
Analysis
Technology
Portfolio
Planning
Project
Portfolio
Selection
Budgeting
and Resource
Allocation
Project
Initiation
Project
Execution
Project
Management
• Management Diagnostic
• Structure and Teaming
• HR Management
• IT & Knowledge Management
• Cycle-Time Management
• External Network Management
Ideation
Technology
Acquisition
Strategy
Project
Closeout
• SWOT Analysis
• Technology Intelligence
Technology
Commercialization
Technology
and IP
24. 24
Knowledge of External Drivers and Dynamics
Infrastructure: Organization, Resources, Processes
Intellectual Property Management
Value Creation and Management
Business
Vision and
Strategy
• Benchmarking
• Scenarios
• Market Research
• Competitive
Analysis
Technology
Valuation
IP
Portfolio
Planning
Budgeting
& Resource
Allocation
Technology
Licensing
Venture
Creation
Sell, M&A,
JV, Alliance
• Management Diagnostic
• Structure and Teaming
• Profit Sharing Model
• Business Plan and Model
• Venture Financing
• External Expert Management
Ideation
Technology
Commercialization
Strategy
Internal
Use
• SWOT Analysis
• Technology Intelligence
Return on
InvestmentTechnology
and Intellectual
Property
New
Business
Portfolio
Technology Commercialization Framework
25. 25
Knowledge of External Drivers and Dynamics
Infrastructure: Organization, Resources, Processes
Technology Planning
R&D Project Management
Business
Vision and
Strategy
• Benchmarking
• Scenarios
• Market Research
• Competitive
Analysis
Technology
Portfolio
Planning
Project
Portfolio
Selection
Budgeting
and Resource
Allocation
Project
Initiation
Project
Execution
Project
Management
• Management Diagnostic
• Structure and Teaming
• HR Management
• IT & Knowledge Management
• Cycle-Time Management
• External Network Management
Ideation
Technology
Acquisition
Strategy
Project
Closeout
• SWOT Analysis
• Technology Intelligence
Knowledge of External Drivers and Dynamics
Infrastructure: Organization, Resources, Processes
• Benchmarking
• Scenarios
• Market Research
• Competitive
Analysis
• Management Diagnostic
• Structure and Teaming
• Profit Sharing Model
• Business Plan and Model
• Venture Financing
• External Expert Management
• SWOT Analysis
• Technology Intelligence
Intellectual Property Management
Value Creation and Management
Technology
Valuation
IP
Portfolio
Planning
Budgeting
& Resource
Allocation
Technology
Licensing
Venture
Creation
Sell, M&A,
JV, Alliance
Ideation
Technology
Commercialzn
Strategy
Internal
Use
Return on
Investment
Technology
and Intellectual
Property
Creating IP Assets Turning IP Assets into Value
Technology Management Commercialization Management
Integrated Framework for a New R&BD Paradigm
26. 26
Innovation and Opportunity Discovery will Be the
Critical Components in the New R&BD Paradigm
Infrastructure: Organization, Resource, Processes
Analysis of External Drivers and Dynamics
Commercialization
Management
IP Asset
Management
Technology (R&D)
Management
Company
Business
Vision
and
Strategy
Opportunity (Value) Discovery
Value Development (R&D, BD)
Creation of
Customer
Value and
Company
Profit
Infrastructure: Organization, Resource, Processes
Analysis of External Drivers and Dynamics
Commercialization
Management
IP Asset
Management
Technology (R&D)
Management
Company
Business
Vision
and
Strategy
Company
Business
Vision
and
Strategy
On-going Opportunity Discovery
Reaserch and On-going Business Development
Creation of
Customer
Value and
Company
Profit
27. 27
SBI’s Experience of Technology Management
Process/System Transfer to Asian R&D Institutes
Technology Management Diagnostic
Technology Management
Scenario Planning
Opportunity Discovery Process
Integrated Technology Planning
Technology Roadmapping
Commercialization Strategy and Management
Technology Intelligence
Scan Process
New Product Concept Development
Innovation Management and Value Creation
29. 29
A Framework for SBI’s Scenario-Based Integrated
Technology Planning and Roadmapping
Strategy and
Roadmap
Development
Background
Information
Company’s
Current Status
Industry
Status and Key
Driving Forces
t
i
Baseline
product
technologies
Baseline
process
technologies
Prod
ucts/
Mark
ets
Enhancing/Sustaining
Displa
cing
Disru
ptive
X
X
Enabli
ng
Interaction
Scenario Planning
Opportunity Search
Business Needs
Scenarios
Technology Possibilities
A B C
Edited List of Technologies
Attractive Possible
Technologies
Preliminary Screen
Business Needs
Scenarios
Technology Possibilities
A B C
Edited List of Technologies
Attractive Possible
Technologies
Preliminary Screen
Signpost and
Technology
Intelligence
Signpost
Scan
FocusWatch Study
Act
SRIC-BI’s Intelligence Framework
Scan
FocusWatch Study
Act
ScanScan
FocusFocusWatchWatch StudyStudy
ActAct
SRIC-BI’s Intelligence Framework
Opportunity Profiling
Technology
Intelligence
Strategy
Roadmap
Step 2
Identify Key
Decision Factors
Step 3
Analyze External
Forces/Drivers
Step 4
Select Scenario
Logics
Step 5
Select & Elaborate
Scenarios
Step 6
Analyze Decision
Implications
Step 1
Identify Decision
Focus and Elements
Step 2
Identify Key
Decision Factors
Step 3
Analyze External
Forces/Drivers
Step 4
Select Scenario
Logics
Step 5
Select & Elaborate
Scenarios
Step 6
Analyze Decision
Implications
Step 1
Identify Decision
Focus and Elements
30. 30
Industry Status and Key Driving Forces
– Building Blocks of the Technology or Technology Tree
– Structure of the Industry
– Commercial Development Parameters
– Issues and Uncertainties
– Implications for Commercialization
– Market Projections
Company’s Status
– Strategic Vision and Goals
– Business Strategy and Product Portfolio
– Technology Strategy and R&D Portfolio
– Core Technologies and Core Competencies
– Resources
Key Elements of Background Information
Background Information
31. 31
Sample Format of Industry Status and Key
Driving Forces Based on SBI’s Explorer Program
Issues and Uncertainties
Building Blocks of the
Technology
Smart Spaces
Privacy
Human-
Computer
Interfaces
Security
Intelligent
Agents
Software
Productivity
Standards and
Interoperability
Context
Awareness
Business
Models
Medium
High
Low
Impact
MediumLow High
Uncertainty
Wireless
Networks
Commercial Development Parameters
Required Resources
• Partnering Capabilities
• IT Expertise
• Spectrum Licenses
• Funding for Research
and Development
Regulatory Factors
• Privacy
• Security
• Liability
Competing Technologies
• Current Computing Environment
• Human Tools
General Constraints
• Value Capture
• Standards and Interoperability
• Storage and Scalability
• Cost
Demand Factors
• Military and Government
• Industrial/Commercial
• Consumer
• Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to
Machine, Machine to Environment)
• Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth,
Wi-Fi)
• Miniature Power Sources
• Ubiquitous Embedded Processing
• Software Architecture
• Identification of Nodes
5
4
3
2
1
Synergistic Technologies
Implications
Markets and Applications
2002 2007 2012
Hardware (Enabling Components)
Software (Systems)
Services (Applications)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Billions
of
Dollars
Players and Structure of the Industry
Systems
• Network Infrastructure
— Cisco
— Siemens
• Software Architecture
— SRI International
— IBM Corporation
— HP Laboratories
— PARC
• Standards
— BluetoothSIG
— IETF
— IEEE
Added
Value
Enabling Components
• Basic Node Components
— Intel
— Motorola
— Hitachi
• Interface Nodes
— Speech Works
— Philips Speech Processing
— Nuance
• Work Nodes
— Palm
— Sunbeam
— Matsushita Electric
• Mobile Autonomous Swarms
— Crossbow Technologies
— Xybernaut
• Smart Spaces
— Display Edge T echnology
— Symbol T echnologies
— Nokia
— NTT DoCoMo
• Personal Networks
— Sensatex
— Sony
— MITMedia Lab
Applications
Pervasive Computing
Implications of Commercialization
A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in
the industry.
A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes.
A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material
features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production.
A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge.
C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials.
• Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization
Emerging Commercial Opportunities
• Growth in GMO-Production Technology
• Application for Nanotechnologies
• High-Throughput Screening
Improvements
• Progress of Combinatorial Methods
• Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free
Synthesis
• Growth in GMO-Production Technology
• Product Formulation Improved by
Biopolymers
• Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods
and Nutraceuticals
• Consumer Preferences Move toward
Convenience Foods and Functional and
Nutraceutical Foods
A
New technologies will lead
to novel biopolymers.
B
Biopolymers enhance food
qualities and production.
Background Information
32. 32
Coverage of the Envelope of Uncertainty
Scenario C
“Envelope of Uncertainty”
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario D
Single Point
Forecast
Developing three to four structurally-different alternatives about the
future, that are at the edge of the envelope of uncertainty, allows us
to cover the uncertainty facing management in a doable manner
Scenario Planning
33. 33
Six Steps in SBI’s Scenario Development Methodology
Step 2
Identify Key
Decision Factors
Step 3
Analyze External
Forces/Drivers
Step 4
Select Scenario
Logics
Step 5
Select & Elaborate
Scenarios
Step 6
Analyze Decision
Implications
Step 1
Identify Decision
Focus and Elements
Scenario Planning
34. 34
Step 1: Identify Decision Focus and Elements
Corporate strategic decisions with long-term
consequences and major uncertainties become the
focal points for scenario development
Work with company management and /or scenario
team to specify key long-term decisions for which
scenarios are to be developed
Identify key elements of these decisions
Scenario Planning
35. 35
Step 2: Identify Key Decision Factors
Specify the key factors (external or internal) that affect
the outcome of the decisions, e.g.:
– Market size, growth, and volatility
– Competing products and technological substitutes
– Economic conditions and price trends
– Capital availability and cost
– Human, material, and other resources
The more that is known about the status of these
factors, the better the quality of the decision will be
Focus on identifying these factors helps to ensure that
the scenarios are correctly focused
Scenario Planning
36. 36
Step 3: Analyze Key External Forces/Drivers
Identify the key external forces that determine the future
status of the key decision factors
– Micro forces: trends in the market and industry such as shifts in
customer needs, restructuring of competition, new technology
– Macro drivers: broad social, economic, political, and technological
forces such as demographic trends, economic growth and
development, trade patterns, political shifts
Assess these forces/drivers for their level of impact and
degree of uncertainty
The objective is to use the highest-impact forces,
highest-uncertainty forces to construct the story-lines of
the scenarios
Scenario Planning
37. 37
Step 3: Analyze Key External Forces/Drivers
LevelofImpact
Degree of Uncertainty
High
Medium
Low
HighMediumLow
“High Impact/High Uncertainty”
Forces Differentiate the
Scenarios
“High Impact/Low Uncertainty”
Forces Do Not Differentiate
the Scenarios
Multiple
Scenario-Based
Technology
Roadmapping
Approach
Single
Scenario-Based
Technology
Roadmapping
Approach
Ignore “Low Impact” Forces
Scenario Planning
38. 38
Step 4: Select Scenario Logics
Select several “logics” (including major axes of
uncertainty) to serve as the structure for the Scenarios
– e.g., deregulation or re-regulation; world moves toward protectionism or
further free trade; high or low energy price; high or low product demand
growth
Logics are coherent, plausible views of different ways in
which “the world might work”
These logics should (1) be based on the critical external
forces/drivers, and (2) encompass the full range of
uncertainty that is to be factored into decision-making
Scenario Planning
39. 39
Step 5: Select and Elaborate Scenarios
Examine combinations of the logic outcomes for
potential scenarios
Select a set of scenarios (normally 3-4) for detailed
elaboration
– The aim should be to cover as much as possible of the “envelope of
planning uncertainty”
Describe each selected scenario in terms of its macro
drivers, micro (industry, market) forces and the
outcomes for the key decision factors
– Use story lines, tabular descriptions, graphs, tables of quantified
data, etc
Scenario Planning
40. 40
Step 5: Select and Elaborate Scenarios
Criteria for Scenario Selection
The scenarios are plausible: i.e., they fall within the limits of
what might reasonable be expected to happen
They are structurally different: i.e., they are not simply
variations of a base case
They are internally consistent: i.e., no scenario has any built-in
inconsistencies that undermine its credibility
They have utility: i.e., each scenario (and all the scenarios
together) is useful for identifying strategies and for testing the
robustness of strategy alternatives
The scenario set should challenge conventional wisdom about
the future.
Scenario Planning
41. 41
Step 6: Analyze Decision Implications
Analyze the scenarios to identify their implications for
the specified management decision(s)
Focus on:
– Opportunities and threats for each scenario and across all scenarios
– Critical issues emerging from the scenarios
Evaluate implications for strategy considerations and
options
Scenario Planning
42. 42
Managers Immerse Themselves in Each Scenario
Scenario A
What would be the threats and
opportunities?
•
•
•
What technology strategy and
actions would we implement?
•
•
•
What are the business needs
in this scenario?
•
•
•
Scenario D
Scenario C
Scenario B
What if we knew
this scenario
would occur?
A
B
C
?
Scenarios
Strategy
and
Action
Decision
Focus
AA
BB
CC
?
Scenarios
Strategy
and
Action
Decision
Focus
Scenario Planning
Detailed stories are created to describe
what the future would be like under each scenario.
43. 43
Business Needs in FED
– Rapid growth of applications market (size and diversity), including military/aerospace niche
markets
– Collaboration with other members of business partner companies
– Cost reduction (process innovation, line conversion, line sharing, competitor alliances similar to
Semitech, equipment manufacturer alliances, etc.)
– “Sexy” features for customers (fast image response, true color, high brightness)
– High-end small-size products (10” or less) for cost-insensitive markets
Business Needs for Other Product Lines
– Low-cost CRT production
– Large-screen advanced CRT and projection products
– Collaboration with other members of the company or other companies
– Obtaining medium-sized (10”-30”) FPD product
Scenario 1, “Overcome the Costs”
Identify Business Needs under Each Scenario
Illustrative Only
Opportunity Discovery
44. 44
Scenario 1, “Overcome the Costs”
Technologies That Can Help Satisfy Each Need
Needs Key Technologies - FED
1. Rapid growth of applications market
2. Collaboration Standardization of process equipment/materials
Mechanical and electrical standardization
3. Cost reduction (process,conversion,alliances) Modified microtip development
New material & process technology for structures
High-throughput packaging technology
Automation of spacer installation
4. “Sexy” features (fast, color, bright) Phosphor material development
Driving algorithm for low power display
Spacer technology (invisibility)
5. High-end small-size products (10” or less) Phosphor material for high brightness
(military, aerospace) Packaging for long lifetime
Identify Technical Needs & Key Technologies
to Satisfy the Business Needs in a Scenario
Illustrative Only
Opportunity Discovery
45. 45
Create a List of Technologies That Lead
to Success for Each Scenario
Business Needs
Scenarios
Technology Possibilities
A B C
Brainstorm a list of technologies that might lead to business success
for each scenario. These technologies can be:
Technologies critical for achieving success or avoiding failure
Enabling or infrastructure technologies.
Edit the list to eliminate redundancies and to define technologies in
terms of their technical components and tasks they perform.
Edited List of Technologies
Opportunity Discovery
46. 46
The List of Technologies To Be Analyzed
Must Be Prioritized and Manageable
Attractive Possible
Technologies
Preliminary Screen
Edited List of Technologies
Shorten the list of technologies to 10 to 20 well-defined possibilities
using a preliminary screen that addresses the two most important
factors we can agree on. Typical screening criteria are:
Likelihood of success—might this technology be implemented
in the time frame under consideration?
Importance—is this technology truly important to our future
success?
Opportunity Discovery
47. 47
Opportunity Profiles Based on SRI’s NABC Approach
Opportunity Profiling
A simple “NABC” approach can be used for profiling, communication,
validation, and promotion of an opportunity
Important
Needs
Unique
Approach
Customer
Benefits
Dynamic
Competition
Next Steps,
Action Plan
Customer needs, market
and product needs, or
technical needs
Compelling and unique
technical and/or business
approach
Competitive advantages
and disadvantages to
technology/market leaders
Current status and issues,
and next step or action plan
Customer benefits and
company/R&D benefits
48. 48
Moving from Scenarios to Strategy to Action
Decision
Focus
Action
plus
Monitoring,
Progress,
and
Performance
Metrics
A
B
C Scenario
Signposts
Business
Needs and
Success
Factors
Strategy
Alternatives
Strategy
Selection
Gaps
and
Plans
Technology Strategy
49. 49
Each Strategy Alternative Is Evaluated
Using the Key Success Factors
Identify and prioritize key
success factors by which
to evaluate strategy
alternatives.
Evaluate each strategy
alternative against the key
success factors under
each scenario.
These factors become
potential performance
metrics.
Technology Strategy
50. 50
Robust: Designed to provide satisfactory results under all scenarios
– Considerations: Lower risk; higher cost; may not be optimal for any scenario.
Rigid: Designed to provide greatest success under the preferred
scenario that takes best advantage of current position and resources
– Considerations: High upside potential; higher risk; lower cost.
Flexible: Designed to preserve flexibility until it becomes more
apparent which scenario will occur or how key uncertainties are
resolved
– Considerations: Lower risk but might miss opportunities; moderate cost; requires
significant intelligence and monitoring effort.
Influence: Attempt to use resources to bring about desirable
scenario
– Considerations: Requires understanding of forces behind scenarios that can be
influenced; higher cost.
Broad Strategy Considerations for Strategy Selection
Technology Strategy
51. 51
The Steps in Scenario-Based Roadmapping
1. Identify Critical Technologies Today and for Future Scenarios (Step 3)
– Performance enhancement and new capabilities meeting needs
– Multiple uses and dependencies within product areas, industry base
– Design and production impacts: Costs, quality, availability, reliability, etc.
2. Define Technology Directions and Dependencies for Each Scenario (Step 4)
– Technology driving trend(s) and axes of uncertainty
– Critical pacing technologies required to achieve trend(s) or outcomes
3. Develop Roadmaps by Scenario (Steps 5 and 6)
– Mutual consistency of advances, including displacing and enabling technologies
– Potential disruptive technologies (possible variants)
– Check for consistency with basic scenario logics
4. Apply Roadmaps
– Use high-level roadmaps in Portfolio Balancing and Project Selection
– Expand to detailed roadmaps for development planning and project sequencing
– Use both high-level and detailed roadmaps to guide competence development and
technology intelligence
– Maintain roadmaps as part of Integrated Technology Planning
Technology Roadmap
52. 52
Example of a Technology Roadmap:
Competing Display Technologies
TechnologyTechnology 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
LCD
FED
PDP
OEL
DMD
12.1” 14” 15” 17” 20”
$50~60/in < 14” $15~20/in
< 16” $25~30/in
> 17” $30 ~ 35/in
matches CRT
•Largest size
•Cost-effective
increasing gradually
~ $35/in $20~25/in•OEM cost/in
•Readability
•Cost-eff size
•OEM cost/in
4” mono 6” color 15” color
end of 2005
gradual
milestone
high-end military/
avionics
accelerating
military use easier to increase size
than for LCD
cost/inch drops rapidly
•Cost-eff size
•OEM cost
•Selling below cost
to gain market
share
21”
@$8000
32”
@$5000
42”
@$4200
60”
@$5000
nothing yet
commercialized
multicolor,
low information
content
6”
hand-held
PC
full color
full color displays
[normal up to 10”]
•Cost is uncertain
very
expensive
low yields
60”
large
screen
yield improvements
&
resolution
improvements
focus research needed
$5~10/inch
passive matrix
CRT
•Largest cost
effective size 35”~40”
Flat CRTs >2005
(not in Digital TV)
TechnologyTechnology 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
LCD
FED
PDP
OEL
DMD
12.1” 14” 15” 17” 20”
$50~60/in < 14” $15~20/in
< 16” $25~30/in
> 17” $30 ~ 35/in
matches CRT
•Largest size
•Cost-effective
increasing gradually
~ $35/in $20~25/in•OEM cost/in
•Readability
•Cost-eff size
•OEM cost/in
4” mono 6” color 15” color
end of 2005
gradual
milestone
high-end military/
avionics
accelerating
military use easier to increase size
than for LCD
cost/inch drops rapidly
•Cost-eff size
•OEM cost
•Selling below cost
to gain market
share
21”
@$8000
32”
@$5000
42”
@$4200
60”
@$5000
nothing yet
commercialized
multicolor,
low information
content
6”
hand-held
PC
full color
full color displays
[normal up to 10”]
•Cost is uncertain
very
expensive
low yields
60”
large
screen
yield improvements
&
resolution
improvements
focus research needed
$5~10/inch
passive matrix
CRT
•Largest cost
effective size 35”~40”
Flat CRTs >2005
(not in Digital TV)
Scenario A
Technology Roadmap
53. 53
Example of a Technology Roadmap:
Products of Competing Display Technologies
•PDP: high-end FP
•CRT: dominates
•LCD14”: not affordable
32” PDP-TV
LCD increasing
DT display use
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005ProductsProducts
NT
PC
Monitor
Hand
held
PC
TV
PJ
TV
Auto-
motive
12” LCD 13” LCD
size increase
14” LCD --->continues 14” with better brightness
+contrast+efficiency
strongly
LCD
increasing
share of DT
•FED use in autos --->
Inroads
by FED
LCD very
competitive for DT
•FEDs in PDAs
•OELs in PDAs
LCD
dominates
42”
PDP-TV
60” PDP-TV
LCD share drops,winner
determined by cost whether
OEL can be spin coated
DMD
digital
cinemas
•OEL multi-use displays
DMD big screen
team games
•up to 35” CRTs
•LCD up to 6”
TVs
minor inroads
by FED
14” LCD
Monitor
price dropped
to get share
PDP ultra high -resolution
W/S monitor
no future DT
penetration
OELs for smaller multi-use displays
•other technologies
•DMD very expensive
besides presentation
projectors
•rear projection CRTs
LCD
home
theaters
LCD being used
in navigation system
LCD auto
entertainment
system
•PDP: high-end FP
•CRT: dominates
•LCD14”: not affordable
32” PDP-TV
LCD increasing
DT display use
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005ProductsProducts
NT
PC
Monitor
Hand
held
PC
TV
PJ
TV
Auto-
motive
12” LCD 13” LCD
size increase
14” LCD --->continues 14” with better brightness
+contrast+efficiency
strongly
LCD
increasing
share of DT
•FED use in autos --->
Inroads
by FED
LCD very
competitive for DT
•FEDs in PDAs
•OELs in PDAs
LCD
dominates
42”
PDP-TV
60” PDP-TV
LCD share drops,winner
determined by cost whether
OEL can be spin coated
DMD
digital
cinemas
•OEL multi-use displays
DMD big screen
team games
•up to 35” CRTs
•LCD up to 6”
TVs
minor inroads
by FED
14” LCD
Monitor
price dropped
to get share
PDP ultra high -resolution
W/S monitor
no future DT
penetration
OELs for smaller multi-use displays
•other technologies
•DMD very expensive
besides presentation
projectors
•rear projection CRTs
LCD
home
theaters
LCD being used
in navigation system
LCD auto
entertainment
system
Scenario A
Technology Roadmap
54. 54
Signposts are Essential for Tracking
Important External and Internal Developments
Start with the high impact, high uncertainty
external forces and identify indicators that will
help determine if and how the uncertainty is
being resolved.
Leading indicators provide early signals and
evidence of future outcomes.
Signposts are measurable descriptions for the
indicators that point clearly to a future
outcome for the force.
Focus intelligence efforts on these signposts.
Develop Signposts
55. 55
Developing the Signposts Involves Four Steps
1. Select the Forces
of Importance
2. Identify Indicators
for Those Forces
3. Develop Measures
for the Indicators
4. Specify Signposts
to Watch For
Develop Signposts
56. 56
“Forces”
(Important forces and
dynamics to watch)
“Indicators”
(Element or condition of “forces”
To watch, taken from scenarios))
“Measures”
(Events, data, information that define
element or condition of “indicators”)
“Signposts”
(Significant threshold “measures” that
are judged to be clear indications)
Geopolitics, demographics
and economics
Emergence of trading blocks China joins WTO China abides by WTO rules and there are
no sanction against that country
Tariff reductions India, Brazil reduce chemical product
duties below $__/T
Regulatory/eco-factors Strictness of
environmental regulations
Global treaties implemented Global CO2 reduction treaty implemented
by 2010
EU directives on fuel quality are improved
and spread
EU fuel quality directives are adopted by
other regions, e.g. Eastern Europe, Russia
Increasing use of lists (to identify “bad”
products)
Number of chemical products on toxics
lists increase by __%
Government support of environment Large government/corporate programs
(like PNGV or FreedomCAR) funded
Feedstocks Shift to low-cost feedstocks Commodities production moves to energy-
rich countries
Petrochemicals construction projects and
production in energy-rich countries
increases from _ to _% of total
Technology advances Technology development activity Technology evolves rapidly across large
companies
Number and % of patents issued to large
companies increases from __ to __ ;
large companies carve out big new IP
areas
Government funding available fortechnology
development
Government R&D funding increases by
__%
Broad IP protection Shift toward effective worldwide patent
system
Patent disputes/claims between countries
decrease from __ to __ per year
Products Product harmonization Shift toward global specifications Multinational companies require suppliers
to meet global specs
Deselection of flexible PVC and phthalate
plasticizers
Major companies switch to alternatives
Industry/competitors Industry structure Number of commodity producers High-profile chemical companies merge,
e.g. SABIC buys Enichem
Example Signposts for Another Industry and Company
Develop Signposts
57. 57
Example: Microtip-Based FED Has Five Signposts
Showing Where Its Path May Go in One Direction or Another
Time —>
2000 2001 2002 2004-5
Market & Macro
economic Growth
(including LCD)
High-Voltage
Long-Life
Phosphor
High-
Throughput
Laser Sealing
First-Generation
Microtip
Commercialized
Low-Voltage
Long-Life
Phosphor
Develop Signposts
58. 58
Decision-Makers
(Intelligence Customers)
Intelligence Network
Focal Points
Intelligence Network
Members
Information
Search
Specialists
Information Sources
DEFINE FOCUS
FOCUS ON INDICATORS,
MEASURES, AND
SIGNPOSTS
TARGET SPECIFIC INFORMATION
MEASURE, ANALYZE
AND INTERPRET
Link to StrategyLink to Decision
Link to SourcesLink to Network
Experts Journals Associations Information Services
UniversitiesInternet Databases Brokers
A Comprehensive Intelligence Program
Has Clear Linkages and Information Flows
Major Tasks
Design intelligence process
Determine technology focus
areas and priorities
Develop signposts based on
forces, indicators and
measures
Test process
Charter networks
Implement a training and
communication plan
Technology Intelligence
60. 60
Key Success Factors of a New Process/System
Implementation
Strong commitment and support of the client’s top management
Consensus building and active participation
Practical and proven process/system
Flexible process/system to accommodate improvement of
process/system learning and staff capability by experience
Manual/handbook with many (real) case examples
Starting with simple (and flexible) process/system
Appropriate budget and time
Key staff training of a new process/system
61. 61
Lessons Learned and Issues in Implementation
Don’t wait to launch a new process/system until a company (or
its R&D center) culture changes to accept the new system. By
implementing a simple process/system we can start to change
the company (or its R&D center) culture.
Overcome of “Not-Invented-Here”
Collaboration barrier of “Silo Structure”
Organizational restructuring for a new process/system
Modification of R&D project evaluation, and staff evaluation and
rewards (e.g., short-term low-impact low-risk vs. long-term high-
impact high-risk)
Clear definition of new role, responsibility, and reward
Aligning R&D strategy/policy to company strategy/policy