This document introduces technology forecasting. It defines technology forecasting as predicting the direction, character, rate, implication, and impact of technological advances. The key reasons for technology forecasting are to improve decision making by scanning the technological environment and anticipating changes. It describes the basic model of technology forecasting as having inputs, a forecasting process and techniques, and outputs. The main elements of technology forecasting are the forecasting problems/objectives, data, forecaster, techniques, forecast, and review mechanism. The objectives of technology forecasting include projecting technology replacement rates, assisting R&D management, evaluating technology value, identifying new opportunities/threats, and analyzing developments that could change strategies.

1. Technological Forecasting
Introduction to Technology Forecasting
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 1

2. Contents
 Definitions
of Technology Forecasting
 Why Technology Forecasting ?
 Model of Technology Forecasting
 Elements of Technology Forecasting
 Objectives of Technology Forecasting
Technology Forecasting
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3. Technology Forecasting

Three definitions of technology forecasting
from leading experts

Technology forecasting is
 A group of techniques that predict the
direction, character, rate, implication, and
impact of technological advances
-Vanston
Technology Forecasting
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4. Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 4

5. Technology Forecasting

A prediction of the future characteristics of
useful machines, procedures, or techniques
-Martino

Anticipation of the character, intensity, and
timing of changes in technology
-Porter
Technology Forecasting
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6. Why Technological Forecasting?
It is Indispensable
 It improves Quality of Decision making
 Scanning the technological environment
 Anticipating emerging technological changes
 Identifying suitable technologies by
evaluating various alternatives
 Planning for future technology needs

Technology Forecasting
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7. Technological Forecasting Model
Viewed as a Input – Process – Output System
INPUTS
Forecasting
Problems
and
Objectives,
Data Inputs
PROCESS
Forecasting
process and
Techniques
REVIEW
OUTPUT
Forecast

8. Elements of Technological Forecasting
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Forecasting problems & objectives
Data inputs for forecasting
Forecaster
Forecasting process
Forecasting techniques
Forecast (output)
Review Mechanism
Technology Forecasting
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9. Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
 The
first step in a technology
forecasting project is to determine the
purpose the forecast is to serve.
 Vanston suggests five purposes

Projections of the rates at which new
technologies will replace older ones

Important to companies dependent on the old
as well as the new technology
Technology Forecasting
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10. Objectives for Technology
Forecasting

Assistance in the Management of Technical
Research and Development


Forecasting the technology emergence process can
facilitate allocation of R&D resources
Evaluation of the Present Value of Technology
Under Development

Forecasting the commercial value of a technology
in the development process
Technology Forecasting
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11. Objectives for Technology
Forecasting

Identification and Evaluation of New Products
or Processes that May Present the
Organization with New Opportunities or
Threats

Forecasting new business opportunities or threats
to present markets
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 11

12. Objectives for Technology
Forecasting

Analysis of New Technical Developments that
Might Change Organizational Strategies or
Operations

Forecasting technology changes that might change
the internal operations of the organization itself.
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 12