Dr.G.M.SWAMY JSSATE Bangalore

1. PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENT
MODULE-4
Technology Forecasting
Prepared By
Prof.G.M.Swamy
Department of Mechanical Engineering
JSS Academy of Technical Education
Bangalore-560060
Mob:9739125899
E Mail : gmswamyjssateb@gmail.com

2. Module-4
Technology Forecasting
Introduction :
Technological forecasting is a planning tool or technique, applied to predict the following:
1) The potential direction at which technology change is taking place.
2) The rate of technology advance , and
3) The effects of technology change on process, product, market, society, etc.
When possible, the prediction will be quantified, made through a specific logic, and will
estimate the timing and degree of change in technological parameters, attributes, and
capabilities. For example, the speed of a modified military aircraft, the power in Watts of a
particular future engine, the accuracy or precision of a measuring instrument, the number of
products that could be manufactured in the current year, and so on. The forecast is not an
attempt to state or predict how these characteristics will be achieved, and is also not oriented
towards profitability. That is, a technological capability or attribute can be forecast to be
available at some time in the future, although society may not necessarily want or need the
capability. The benefit and value of technological forecasting lie in its contribution to planning
and decision making. Decision-makers are concerned about the desirable and undesirable
effects of fast growing technologies. Anticipation of such technologies serve as early warning
signals before a particular technology is imported or manufactured indigenously.

3. Reasons/Need for Technology Forecasting
Following are a few reasons of why technology forecasting is
important:
1. Increased competition in the global market for innovative and
cost competitive products. Forecasting helps to incorporate
technological changes into strategic planning process.
2. The survival, growth and profitability of companies need to
predict future technological changes in order to create a solid
and sustainable technological base that can withstand or
adapt to rapidly changing market requirements.
3. Identify suitable technologies by evaluating various
alternatives.
4. To provide suggestions for future research (R & D projects).
5. To invest scarce funds in emerging technologies.
6. To analyze the effect of technology on the socio economic
aspects of the society.

4. Role (Benefits) of Technology Forecasting
The purpose of a technology forecast is to aid in decision
making. A forecast may be valuable if it leads to a more informed,
and possible a better decision. The role of technology forecast in
planning is as follows:
1. Identify the limits beyond which it is not possible to plan activities.
2. Establish a feasible rate of progress, so that the plan can be made
to take full advantage of such rates.
3. Describe the available alternatives and those which can be chosen
form.
4. Provide a reference standard for the plan. The plan can thus be
compared with the forecast at any point in time to determine
whether it can still be fulfilled, or whether, because of changes in
the forecast, it has to be changed.
5. Indicate possibilities that might be achieved, if desired.
6. Furnish warning signals, which can alert the decision maker
regarding the impossibility to continue present activities.

5. Elements of Technology Forecasting
There are four basic elements in a technology forecast that can be specified
and/or estimated. These include:
1. Time period
2. Qualitative
3. Quantitative
4. Probability of occurrence
The time element deals with resource-time relationship and may be stated
generally or given precisely. The qualitative element attempts to identify the
factors that are likely to change the activities or technology trends in areas of
interest to the forecaster. The quantitative element attempts to measure
quantitatively and assess the level of performance of various technologies.
The element of probability of occurrence attempts to predict different
alternatives and its confidence level, like as high or low. For each of these
elements of the forecast, the degree of precision may vary anywhere between
the two endpoints of generality and precision. The precision associated with
each element of a forecast should be determined by the use to which the
forecast will be put. The forecast should thus be tailored to the decision
making situation, and the precision associated with each of the elements
should be appropriate to this situation.

6. TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
Technological change can be defined as an
increase in the efficiency of a physical process,
product, materials, machinery or equipment,
which results in an increase in the output,
without an increase in the input. In other
words, it is the process of invention or
improvement of technology to yield a bigger
reward for the same amount of work input.
The following are a few example related to
technological change:

7. 1. A telephone that has undergone many
technological changes since its inception, for a
better efficient, and reliable mode of
communication.
2. Advanced cutting tools that permits to produce
more parts in an hour of work.
3. Automation that allows companies to produce
more products/services with respect to unit
input.
4. System/Tools that help people to create, manage
and share knowledge such as the internet, etc.

8. Impact of Technological Change on Society
The change in Technology impacts the
environment, people, and the society as a whole.
Technology has changed society throughout history.
On one hand, technological changes tend to uplift
society, while on the other hand, it threatens the
development of society. The major effects of
technological change on society are briefed as follows:
1. Different products with different features and
characteristics like superior in quality, free from
pollution, safer, more comfortable, etc., enter into the
market in a short span of life. Society depends on
business to keep the stream of discovery flowing into
useful goods and services for the benefit of mankind.

9. 2. Technological developments make life easy and
improve standard of living in the society.
However the improvements in the living
conditions are not uniformly distributed among
the diverse population in the society. Rising
inequality due to wealth/income distribution has
been a driver of social unrest, which has
significant ramifications for the political area.
3. New technologies give way for opportunities
related to jobs and trade. On the other hand,
technologies related to automation replace
human labors increasing unemployment in
society.

10. 4. Technology has changed the education system and
learning methods to a great extent, thereby uplifting
the learning interests and abilities of people, and in
turn eradicating illiteracy in the society. On the other
hand, technological changes have created unethical
principles and practices in the society, especially
young generations. The government has also been
affected by technology change. It has forced upon the
government new functions and responsibilities in the
form of social security measures and welfare
activities.
5. Many technological changes tend to build
relationships and bring people together. The key
feature of social existence is the development of
relations among the people in the society.

11. METHODS (TECHNIQUES) OF TECHNOLOGY
FORECASTING
The available technology forecasting
(techniques), both qualitative and quantitative
in nature, are grouped into two categories:
Exploratory and Normative as illustrated in the
following diagram.
Exploratory forecasting is based upon the
past and the present knowledge and is oriented
towards the future, while normative
forecasting first sets up the future needs and
objectives and then specifies the means to
achieve them.

12. Fig: Method (Techniques) of Technology Forecasting

13. 1. Exploratory methods: Exploratory forecasting methods
start with the present state of technology by analyzing the
technological capabilities, features, etc., and
quantitatively project future possibilities. In other words,
it provides a means for exploring the shape of tomorrow
given the state, trends, and promises, of today. These
methods are applicable in systems which grow under a
specific environment. Exploratory methods can be
grouped into four categories, viz., Intuitive, Trend
extrapolative, Technology monitoring and Growth curves.
(i) Intuitive method: Intuitive methods are based on the
ability of one or more experts in their respective areas of
specialization to forecast the future possibilities regardless
of information security. Their essence is to build a
rational procedure intuitive-logical thinking combined
with quantitative assessment methods and processing the
obtained results. Some commonly used intuitive methods
are briefed as follows:

14. • Brainstorming : Brainstorming method involves a group of
people under a leader who encourages forecasting about a specific
technology by collecting/contributing all the ideas spontaneously.
Every idea however absurd it may look, is, given due
consideration. The major objective is to stimulate the generation
of ideas on a given technology. The ideas are analyzed and
evaluation is carried out in depth. Least favored ideas are
rejected, while preferred ones are analyzed and forecasts are
prepared in consultation with other functional experts.
Brainstorming is easy to organize. Criticism of the
feasibility of an idea is not encouraged during the brainstorming
session. The result is a list of possible ideas of events which
could happen. This could also serve as an input for other
forecasting techniques. The disadvantage of this method is that,
sufficient time required to organize a number of sessions for
possible outcomes. Also an experienced and capable leader is
required to conduct the technique.

15. • Delphi technique The Delphi technique is arguably the most popular forecasting tool
in practice. The technique makes use of a core group of experts questions regarding the
desirability of technology development, its feasibility and impact, tie frame, resources
required, etc.; the questions later sent through mail to a panel of experts in the relevant
field to forecast events or trends regarding the issue. Experts’ opinions and responses
are collected, summarized, and any irrelevant material is removed, looking from
common viewpoints. The questionnaire rounds can be repeated as many times as
necessary to achieve a general sense of consensus. After each round, a facilitator or
change agent provides an anonymised summary of the experts’ forecasts from the
previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. In this manner,
experts’ encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the opinions of other
members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers
will decrease and the group will converge towards a consensus forecast on the subject
being discussed.
Delphi technique provides opportunities for experts for the desired changes and
revisions between subsequent rounds of questionnaire. There is no interaction between
panel members, and as such individual members need not worry about their opinions
owing to the reputation or dominance of other members. The technique has the ability
to produce a high degree of convergence towards a consensus forecast. However, the
process in time consuming due to the slow rate of discussion in vies of the non-
interaction of panel members.

16. • Scenario writing Scenario writing is usually preferred
when the company’s long-term future is far too difficult
to predict, or when quantitative forecasting methods
may be inadequate for forecasting. The forecaster starts
with different sets of assumptions, and for each set of
assumptions, a likely scenario of the business outcome
is charted. The forecaster thus generates several
different future scenarios corresponding to different
sets of assumptions allowing the decision maker to
decide which scenario is most likely to prevail. In
essence, scenario writing technique gives three different
study alternatives from the one that is the best, to the
middle one and the worst case scenario.
Unfortunately, much literature on this approach
suggests that writing multiple scenarios does not
present better quality over other judgmental forecasting
methods.

17. (ii) Technology monitoring: In order to reduce uncertainties resulting from
rapid technological changes, there has to be a system for monitoring the
signals of technological change. Technology monitoring is one of the
techniques, which can be used for monitoring breakthroughs through
forerunner events. The major steps involved in technology monitoring are
briefed as follows:
 Scanning involves collecting as much information that is available on
the particular field of technology. The information could be research
plans and developments, environment of the technology, benefits of
technology, human skills and capabilities, social and ethical issues,
manufacturing plans, etc.
 Filtering involves screening of filtering unnecessary information
obtained in the previous step, thereby retaining relevant information
required for forecasting.
 Development and Utilization of ideas involves subjecting the relevant
information to detailed scrutiny and evaluating them by a group of
forecasters as to their usefulness to trigger newer activities in the
organization. The forecaster will be in a position to advise the decision
maker to embark on new plans for initiating appropriate action in areas
like R&D, production, marketing, diversification of product range etc.
The decision maker would now be in a position to confirm the
technological forecast.

18. Technological monitoring serves as early
warning devise on threats to existing products/
process/ service, or may provide signals on
opportunities for new products/ processes/ services.
However, the disadvantage of this method is, it is
very cumbersome. Data collection is a tedious and
time consuming task apart form the necessity for
data storage. The method is suitable for large
companies or industry associations or government.
Comprehensive monitoring systems are expensive
and need substantial resources for their regular
operation.

19. (iii) Trend extrapolative method: Extrapolative
method makes use of the historical data on
selected technological parameters for projecting
the future trends. The method uses extrapolation
of graph of a known, available, and in-use
technological event for which data is available.
The basic assumption in this regard is that, a large
number of interacting forces which were
influencing the past trend will generally continue
to act in the same way unless there are obvious
reasons to expect a change in the trend due to
introduction of new efficient and reliable
inventions or development of process/ methods.
The following diagram shows the trend
extrapolation forecasting.

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21. There are two types of extrapolation based on the rate
of progress of past behavior: linear method and
exponential method.
• Linear extrapolation is used where a linear growth
function is predicted. The trend is explained using the
linear equation: yi =Axi +B
where yi is the value of the dependant variable in the ith
time period,
xi is the value of the independent variable in the ith
time period,
and A and B are constants obtained by the method of
sum squares and minimizing them from the projected
extrapolation.

22. • Exponential method is used where certain
technological capabilities and parameters grow
exponentially with time. The exponential growth curve
could be assumed to be in the form as Yi =A.B
Xi
where Yi is the value of the variable to be estimated.
Xi is the impact variable, and
A and B are constants obtained by the method of sum
squares and minimizing them from the projected
extrapolation.
In certain instances, where the trend does not
follow either linear or exponential pattern, a polynomial
trend equation may be applied.

23. • Substitution technique involves extrapolating
the rate of substitution of a particular technology
or process by some other recent innovative,
efficient, reliable and cost effective technology.
For example, substitution of natural fibers by
synthetic fibers, soaps by detergents, open hearth
steel making process by electric arc furnace
process, etc. The fractional rate of substitution of
a new technology for an old technology is
proportional to the remaining amount of the old
technology left to be substituted. Mathematically
it has been developed by Fisher and Pry, and
expressed in the form as:

24. where f is the fraction of new technology or the
extent of substitution and 2a is a constant.
Trend extrapolation is simple to use and
quick to interpret with sufficient past data.
However, extrapolation cannot predict the
trend if underlying causes is drastically
changed at a point of time. Further, they are
suitable only for short range forecasting
considering that the present day product/
technological time cycles have greatly
shortened over the years.

25. (iv) Growth curves Certain technological capability or parameters
attain an ultimate saturation level i.e., the growth is restricted
due to practical limitations. Growth curves could be used for
forecasting how and when a given technical approach will
reach its upper limit. The growth phenomena can be described
by and S – shaped (sigmoidal) curve as shown in the following
graphs, with initially slow growth speeding up before slowing
down to approach a limit. The process involves fitting a
growth curve to a set of data on technological performance,
then extrapolating the growth curve beyond the range of the
data to obtain an estimate of future performance. This activity
involves three assumptions:
 The upper limit to the growth curve is known.
 The chosen growth curve to be fitted to the historical data is the
correct one.
 The historical data gives the coefficients of the chosen growth curve
formula correctly.
Of the several mathematical models used to generate growth curves, the
two commonly used models are Pearl Curve and Gompertz curve.

26. • Pearl curve Pearl’s growth curve equation
can be used to predict the growth of
performance of technology with reference to
functional capability. It is given in the form as
Where, Y = forecast variable,
L = Upper limit of Y
t = time period
a = location coefficient and
b = shape coefficient

27. The coefficient a determines where the curve will be
on the time axis, and b determines the sleepness of the
sharply rising portion. On the basis of some historical
data points, it is possible to determine the values of a
and b which give a good fit to the data and then use the
equation to forecast future progress. As shown in the
following chart, Pearl’s growth curve is symmetric
about the point of inflection (the inflection point is the
point at which it changes from ‘growing ever more
rapidly’ to ‘growing ever less rapidly’ and is therefore
the point at which its growth rate is at its maximum),
indicating the growth rate is maximum at this point.
One can assume that nearly 50% of potential customers
have adopted the product at that time period.

28. • Gompertz curve
The Gompertz curve is described using the
equation:
Where Y = forecast variable
L = Upper limit of Y
b = location coefficient
t = time period
k = shape coefficient

29. Gompertz curve can be used to predict the state of
technology for which there is a limit, and when the
growth in the initial stages is comparatively faster than
that of the Pearl curve. As shown in the following
chart, the Gompertz curve is not symmetrical about the
inflexion point. The percentage at which the point of
inflexion reaches is about 37 % which happens before
50 % as in the case of Pearl’s growth curve.
Growth curves are the only approach that can be
used to forecast a system that is bound by a limit.
However, growth curves depend on historical data
without which forecasting is impossible. When using
growth curves, the forecaster must be sure that the data
are self-consistent, i.e., all data come from the same
data set or population.

30. Fig: Growth curves

31. 2) Normative methods
• Normative forecasting methods begin with setting
up future needs, goals or objectives, and work
backwards to the present to find out the best
approach to realize the predetermined objective.
• The technique is a need –based in which needed
capabilities are identified for the achievement of
the goals.
• Normitive methods can be grouped into three
categories, viz., Relevance trees, Morphological
analysis and Flow diagrams.

32. (i) Relevance tree technique
 Relevance tree technique is an analytical method that
subdivides a particular objective into increasingly
smaller activities and further into tasks, thereby
showing all possible paths to achieve the intended
objective and provide a forecast accordingly.
 The deficiencies with respect to the specific task are
identified based on which a project or an action is
recommended.
 The technique thus involves a hierarchical listing of
tasks as well as its alternatives and each branch in the
hierarchy can be considered as a goal, sub-goal, etc.
 An example of a relevance tree is shown in the
following chart, wherein the objective is to develop a
means of air pollution control.

33.  The hierarchy begins with the objective, which is further broken into
activities and further into tasks as shown in the figure.
 As one descends down the tree, the details increase at every level.
The entries when taken together at each level describe the preceding
level completely.
 The objective(goal) and the actions to be taken are thus liked in the
relevance tree.
 Relevance tree is an organized approach for assessing the route to be
used for achieving a defined future objective or solving a given
problem.
 The technique helps in determining alternative ways by which a given
objective might be achieved.
 It also ensures that adequate and appropriate attention is applied to all
the tasks and activities depending on their relevance.
 However, it is a more complex technology that requires considerable
effort and knowledge for constructing the tree.
 Also it requires critical judgment.

34. Relevance tree for air pollution control

35. (ii) Morphological Analysis
Morphological analysis is a forecasting technique for
exploring all the possible solutions to a multi-dimensional,
non-quantified complex problem. The technique involves
mapping a discipline to obtain a wide perspective of
existing solutions and future possibilities. The approach is
based on five basic steps:
1) Formulation and definition of the given problem.
2) Identification and characterization of all parameters
towards solution
3) Construction of a morphological box whose combinations
will contain all possible solutions.
4) Evaluation of the outcome, based on feasibility and
achievement of desired goals.
5) In-depth analysis of the best options considering available
resources.

36. The following table show a morphological box to
examine the possible development of clocks. The
vertical axis, lettered A, B, C, etc., defines the stages of
parameters or the technology under consideration. The
horizontal axis, numbered 1, 2, 3, etc., defines alternate
methods to achieve the stages or parameters. The
analysis is usually initiated by starting with a well-
known or existing solution like, A1-B1-C1-D1-E1-F1,
and changing one element at a time. Alternate
methods, for example, A2-B2-C1-D1-E1-F1, are
analyzed to find potential improvements in current
technology. The solutions can be examined for
efficiency, and later estimated for the time during which
the alternative technologies might be available.

37. Morphological box for development of clocks
Morphological analysis is moreover an analytical technique that provides a
framework for exploring all possible solutions to a particular problem.
However it is complex and time consuming. It cannot be used to obtain
quantitative estimates or relative importance of various technological goals.
Moreover, it is a static model and is not suited to take care of systems that
change with time or describe the logical sequence of events.
Parameters
(Alternatives)
1 2 3 4
Energy
source
A Manual winding Vibration Battery Solar
Energy
storage
B Weight Spring Bimetallic coil --
Motor C Spring motor Electric motor -- --
Regulator D Balance wheel Pendulum Tuning fork Quartz
Gearing E Pinion drive Chain drive Worm drive --
Indicators F Dial hands Slide marks Liquid quartz Light indicators

38. (iii)Mission Flow Diagrams
 Mission flow diagram is a specific type of activity diagram that
communicates a sequence of actions or movements for
accomplishing a specific objective.
 It was originally conceived for analyzing military missions and
hence the name mission flow diagram.
 The technique involves mapping all the alternative routes or
sequences by which a given task can be accomplished.
 The analyst needs to identify significant steps on each route and
also determine the challenges and/or costs associated with each
route.
 The performance requirements can then be derive for each
associated technology and the same can be used to forecast the
relevant information.
 The following flow chart illustrates a simple flow diagram,
wherein, forecasting is base on the measure of performance related
to tasks executed in mission 1 and 2.

39. Fig: Forecasting using Mission flow diagram.

40. Combining Forecast of Technologies
 The forecasting accuracy can be improved by combining forecasts derived from
different methods that differ substantially and draw information from different sources.
 The use of more than one forecasting method often gives the forecaster more insight
into the processes at work which are responsible for the growth of the technology being
forecast.
 For example, combining forecast obtained from Growth curves and Trend curve for
some technology.
 It is quite common that one forecast method performs well in certain periods/situations,
while other methods perform better in other periods/situations.
 For example, with growth curves alone, the forecaster cannot conclude anything about
the time at which a given technical approach is likely to supplanted by a successor
approach.
 On the other hand, with the trend curve alone, the forecaster cannot conclude anything
about the ability of a specific technical approach to meet the projected trend, or about
the need to look for a successor approach.
 However, the use of growth curves and a trend curve in combination allows the
forecaster to draw some conclusions about the future growth of a technology which
might not be possible, were either method used alone.
 Under ideal conditions, it has been found that combined forecasts were more accurate
and superior to the individual forecasts.
 When inexpensive, it is sensible to combine forecasts from at least five methods, but
not more than five.

41.  Combining forecasts is especially useful when there is uncertainty about
the situation, uncertainty abut which method is most accurate, and when
there is a need to avoid large errors.
 Two common procedures for combining forecasts include simple
averaging, assigning weights inversely proportional to the sum of
squared forecast errors, and regression based weights.
 The discussions related to these procedures lie outside the scope of the
present chapter.
 In spite of the benefits in combining forecasts, some researchers oppose
to its usage.
 Statisticians oppose because combining plays havoc with traditional
statistical procedures, such as calculations of statistical significance.
 Others oppose because they believe there is one right way to forecast.
 Another argument against combining is that developing a
comprehensive model that incorporates all of the relevant information
might be more effective.
 Despite the objections, combining forecasts is an appealing approach.
Instead of trying to choose the single best method, one frames the
problem by asking which method would help to improve accuracy,
assuming that each has something to contribute.

42. INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGICAL PRODUCT INNOVATION
AND PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ENTERPRISES
 Product innovation refers to the creation or developing a new idea for the
realization or development of a new product / service.
 Product innovation destroys existing products by creating new ones that are
not available in the present market.
 Companies tend to add innovation to their new products in order to attract
more customers, increase their profits, and have competitive edge over other
companies.
 The complete cycle of innovating a product, after further developments and
modifications, till it reaches maturity and leads to innovation of another new
product is time consuming and exceedingly complicated.
 It needs precautions to implement an idea for product innovation and the
development of the same.
 Maintaining balance in this regard is a very important aspect for a company.
 There is a need to coordinate perfectly several disciplines related to human,
business and technological skills.
 These three aspects have a significant influence on the value of a new product.
 The details of the three aspects are briefed as follows.

43. (1) Human aspects
Successful innovation maximizes the user
appreciation of the products offered.
Understanding and treating the human interests
is key to define your design drivers.
User Function Analysis – the reaction of the user
on the character and usability of the product.
Ergonomics – the product must correspond to the
physical capabilities of the user.
Socio cultural context of a product requires a good
analysis, and especially a good vision, of the
situation in which the user will be at the time that
the new service or product will be offered.

44. (2) Technological aspects
Technological aspects in product development are
typically related to materials, design and construction
optimization, physics, and development of mechanical/
electronic system, manufacturing and assembly
technology. These aspects are determined by criteria such
as mechanical and thermal load, interface capabilities,
limitations and compatibility by other systems,
environmental impact and aging effects.
(3) Economic aspects
Economic aspects include, knowledge of the competition
and its offer, total cost of development and other production
preliminary costs, approach of the distribution, the
development time (time – to – market ), and the price that
the prospective user is willing to pay for the provided
product / service.

45. An Integrated Approach
 The development of a new product if often handled as a sequential process.
The technological aspects are usually elaborated first, then the economic
aspects are discussed gradually and ultimately the human aspects get
involved.
 The fundamental issue of this approach is the priority assigned to the
different aspects.
 The aspects that are examined first, have a dominant impact on the others and
finally on the end product.
 The innovation potential of the last aspects is drastically reduced and
eventually even eliminated.
 If one of the three domains is overlooked; it can lead to a product that is not
feasible, not useful or even dangerous, or a product that is not competitive on
price.
 To maximize the innovation potential of every aspect, all three domains must
be included in the development process.
 Each aspect is equally important and has the same added value, from
inventing new products to the final launch.

46. METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS IN PRODUCT
INNOVATION PROCESS
The methodologies and tools of most interest to the innovator are those that directly
enable, support and direct the right methods and practices for the innovation
process. Some of the common tools in this regard are briefed as follows:
1) Deep drive Deep drive is a brainstorming technique, wherein a group of people
meet to generate new ideas and solutions around a specific domain of interest.
All contributions are valid, and the key to a successful session is to share as many
ideas as possible without evaluating them. All the ideas are recorded and
evaluated once the deep drive session is completed. Ideas may be used
independently or combined for a better cause. Deep drive provides a quick means
for tapping the creativity of a limited number of people for a large number of
ideas. It provides a free and open environment that encourages everyone to
participate.
2) Prototyping A prototype is an early sample, model, or release of a product built
to test a concept or process, or to act as a thing to be replicated or learned from.
Prototyping is often an overlooked aspect of product innovation. It is mostly
regarded as a demo-like of a future product. However, prototyping is a critical
aspect as it helps to understand, define, and refine the features and specifications
of a future product, or an idea or a concept.

47. 3) Design thinking Design thinking draws on logic, imagination, intuition
and systemic reasoning to explore the possibilities of what could be, and
to create desired outcomes that benefit the end user (the customer).
Design thinking informs human-centered innovation, which begins with
developing an understanding of customers’ or users’ unmet or
unarticulated needs, thereby helping the innovator to gain greater clarity,
to find viable, feasible and desirable ideas. The approach tends to
minimize the uncertainty and risk of innovation by using collective
intelligence through a series of lenses to grow their understanding of
customer needs. By also engaging with customers or users actively
throughout the process using a series of prototypes to learn, test and
refine concepts.
4) TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) TRIZ is a methodology
or a technique for innovation that provides excellent principals (or
models) and concrete tools for creative thinking for technology
development. TRIS is more or less similar to brainstorming, however
owing to its complexity, it can be a barrier to its use and application.
TRIZ requires involvement and discipline that can pay rich dividends in
novel breakthrough solutions as well as a re-invigorated problem solving
effort to the toughest problem.

48. 5) Open innovation Open innovation is an innovation technique that
involves flow of ideas or knowledge within and outside the
organization during the innovation process. Ideas are evaluated
and only the best and most promising ones are selected for their
development and commercialization. Under the open innovation
paradigm there is an important flow of external knowledge into the
organization which turns into projects in co-operation with
external partners and causes the purchase and incorporation of
external technologies.
At the same time, the innovations generated within the
company can be sold as technology and/or industrial property to
other organizations since either they are not applicable within their
business model or because the company has no capacity or
experience to develop the invention. The final result is that some
products reach the market by using exclusively internal resources
from the initial idea up to the commercialization of the final
product. Other products are the result of incorporating external
knowledge at different stages of their development.

49. 6) Co-creation Co creation is an innovative
technique that makes use of people external to
the company in the ideation phase of the new
product or service development. The peopled
involved in the process may include customers,
suppliers, distributers, or the general population,
who are made aware that they are contributing
towards the development of idea & concepts.
Through a series of steps, people are invited to
contribute, evaluate, & refine ideas & concepts.
Involving a wide assortment of consumers &
stakeholders can help in a consistent flow of
ideas & concepts that can be used for new
products/ process development.

50. 7) Agile innovation Agile innovation refers to an iterative,
incremental methods of managing the idea related to
design, & build activities of engineering, information
technology & other business areas that aim to provide new
product or service development in a highly flexible and
interactive manner. The techniques helps generate better
ideas by involving people across the entire organization
and the surrounding eco system. Traditionally, agile
methodology has been applied to the realm of software
development and information technology sector, however
today, its scope and use has been extended widely. Agile
innovation is not limited to only innovating new offerings,
but it emphasizes sustainability of new innovation in
changing environment.
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51. THANK YOU