Technology intelligence aims to help companies identify technological opportunities and threats that could impact their future growth. It involves capturing and analyzing information on market, product and technology changes from internal and external sources. This helps companies in strategic planning and decision making. Technology mapping is the process of gathering external technological data and analyzing it to derive intelligence for strategic decisions. It involves scanning the environment, monitoring trends, forecasting future technological changes, and assessing implications. Technology forecasting uses expert opinions and scenarios to estimate the capabilities and probabilities of future technological developments. It helps companies maximize gains and minimize losses from external events, offset competitors' actions, and develop plans.
This document discusses methods and techniques for technological forecasting. It begins by introducing a collaborative research project on technological forecasting using data mining and semantics between MIT and MIST. It then lists leading journals in future-oriented technology analysis and technological forecasting. The rest of the document describes both qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods, including exploratory methods like technology monitoring, trend analysis, expert opinion, Delphi technique, and scenario development. It also discusses normative methods such as dynamic modeling, cross impact analysis, morphological analysis, and using series indicators. It concludes by noting no single technique is best and that choosing a technique depends on cost, accuracy, available data, computers, time, and forecast horizon.
The document discusses the technology life cycle, which outlines the phases a technology goes through from development to decline. It describes the four phases as: 1) research and development, 2) growth, 3) maturity, and 4) decline. During research and development, risks are high and costs are negative. In the growth phase, costs are recovered and popularity increases. Technologies mature as competitors emerge and the market saturates. Finally, technologies decline as newer alternatives substitute them and profits decrease. The document provides examples to illustrate these phases.
This document introduces technology forecasting. It defines technology forecasting as predicting the direction, character, rate, implication, and impact of technological advances. The key reasons for technology forecasting are to improve decision making by scanning the technological environment and anticipating changes. It describes the basic model of technology forecasting as having inputs, a forecasting process and techniques, and outputs. The main elements of technology forecasting are the forecasting problems/objectives, data, forecaster, techniques, forecast, and review mechanism. The objectives of technology forecasting include projecting technology replacement rates, assisting R&D management, evaluating technology value, identifying new opportunities/threats, and analyzing developments that could change strategies.
Technology strategy at national level; Technology strategy at organizational level; Generation / development of technology; S curve of technology evolution; Technology progression
This document summarizes Porter's framework for technology strategy formulation. It discusses that Porter identified two key decisions: selecting the business area and positioning within it. Technology affects industry attractiveness through the five forces model and a firm's value chain. A technology strategy has three elements: selecting technologies, deciding whether to lead or follow, and whether to sell technologies. The strategy should support the firm's overall competitive strategy and assess sustainability of leadership, advantages of leading, and disadvantages of leading.
It includes concepts of Technology Management along with key concepts associated with Technology Management like technology forecasting, technology strategy, technology acquisition, technology audit, technology diffusion, technovation etc.
Topics that will be emphasized in this class include
Technology Strategy
Development of Technological capability
Innovation management
Technology management and business competitiveness interface
Technology adoption
E-business and Virtual Corporation
http://phpexecutor.com
This document discusses methods and techniques for technological forecasting. It begins by introducing a collaborative research project on technological forecasting using data mining and semantics between MIT and MIST. It then lists leading journals in future-oriented technology analysis and technological forecasting. The rest of the document describes both qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods, including exploratory methods like technology monitoring, trend analysis, expert opinion, Delphi technique, and scenario development. It also discusses normative methods such as dynamic modeling, cross impact analysis, morphological analysis, and using series indicators. It concludes by noting no single technique is best and that choosing a technique depends on cost, accuracy, available data, computers, time, and forecast horizon.
The document discusses the technology life cycle, which outlines the phases a technology goes through from development to decline. It describes the four phases as: 1) research and development, 2) growth, 3) maturity, and 4) decline. During research and development, risks are high and costs are negative. In the growth phase, costs are recovered and popularity increases. Technologies mature as competitors emerge and the market saturates. Finally, technologies decline as newer alternatives substitute them and profits decrease. The document provides examples to illustrate these phases.
This document introduces technology forecasting. It defines technology forecasting as predicting the direction, character, rate, implication, and impact of technological advances. The key reasons for technology forecasting are to improve decision making by scanning the technological environment and anticipating changes. It describes the basic model of technology forecasting as having inputs, a forecasting process and techniques, and outputs. The main elements of technology forecasting are the forecasting problems/objectives, data, forecaster, techniques, forecast, and review mechanism. The objectives of technology forecasting include projecting technology replacement rates, assisting R&D management, evaluating technology value, identifying new opportunities/threats, and analyzing developments that could change strategies.
Technology strategy at national level; Technology strategy at organizational level; Generation / development of technology; S curve of technology evolution; Technology progression
This document summarizes Porter's framework for technology strategy formulation. It discusses that Porter identified two key decisions: selecting the business area and positioning within it. Technology affects industry attractiveness through the five forces model and a firm's value chain. A technology strategy has three elements: selecting technologies, deciding whether to lead or follow, and whether to sell technologies. The strategy should support the firm's overall competitive strategy and assess sustainability of leadership, advantages of leading, and disadvantages of leading.
It includes concepts of Technology Management along with key concepts associated with Technology Management like technology forecasting, technology strategy, technology acquisition, technology audit, technology diffusion, technovation etc.
Topics that will be emphasized in this class include
Technology Strategy
Development of Technological capability
Innovation management
Technology management and business competitiveness interface
Technology adoption
E-business and Virtual Corporation
http://phpexecutor.com
The document discusses technology management and HP. It describes technology management as allowing organizations to manage technological fundamentals to gain competitive advantages. It then provides details about HP's history, products, customers, patents, research labs, acquisitions, and approach to adopting technologies.
This document discusses technology management. It defines technology as the application of science for industrial use. The four elements of technology are technique, knowledge, organization, and product. Technology is driven by innovation, stakeholders, customers, sponsors, and IT standards. There are different categories of technology such as black box, disembodied, embodied, generic, proprietary, and service technologies. Effective technology management leads to benefits like easier work, increased job satisfaction, higher profits, and a more competitive business. The relationship between business strategy and technology strategy is also covered.
Technology management (MOT) involves the development, planning, implementation, and assessment of technological capabilities to achieve organizational strategic objectives. At the national level, MOT aims to ensure competitive technological advantage, while at the enterprise level, it focuses on gaining and maintaining a strong technological position to support competitive strategies. Key tasks of MOT at the enterprise level include technology planning, R&D management, and innovation management. Strategic management of technology (SMOT) adopts a long-term perspective and impacts all organizational levels and functions. An effective strategic technology management system (STMS) follows an eight-phase systems life cycle approach for strategic MOT.
Introduction to Management of TechnologyTarek Salah
This document discusses various topics related to the management of technology, including:
- Definitions of management of technology at the firm and national levels.
- Drivers of technological change in the 21st century and how to manage technologies within organizations.
- The relationship between technology, markets, and society.
- Frameworks for analyzing a company's technology capabilities and opportunities, including technology space maps and horizons of growth models.
- The difference between invention, innovation, and bringing innovations to market.
- Models of the technology and product lifecycles.
- Types of innovations like disruptive vs. sustaining and the role of entrepreneurship in driving technological progress.
This document discusses technology forecasting and planning. It outlines various methods for scanning the environment, forecasting technologies, developing technology roadmaps, and integrating business and technology strategies. These include expert opinions using the Delphi method, trend analysis, modeling, and scenario analysis. The document also describes frameworks for technology auditing, assessing a technology portfolio, and the role of the chief technology officer in technology forecasting and strategic planning.
This document discusses technology transfer and technology acquisition. It begins by defining technology transfer as the process of transferring skills, knowledge, technologies and manufacturing methods between organizations. There are two main types of technology transfer - horizontal transfer between areas/countries, and vertical transfer from research to production. Technology acquisition involves obtaining new technologies internally through R&D or externally through partnerships. Nations regulate technology flows in/out to balance economic development and dependence on external sources.
Research & development strategies across different industriesVaishakh PV
This document discusses research and development (R&D) strategies for various industries. It begins by defining R&D and providing examples of R&D strategies used in the automotive, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, and technology industries. Specific R&D approaches and elements of an effective R&D strategy are described, including architecture, processes, people, and portfolio. The document also discusses Toyota's global R&D vision and activities focused on environmental technology, safety technology, and intelligent transport systems.
The document discusses various theories and methods related to technology forecasting. It defines technology and discusses theories on the process of technological change proposed by various scholars. It also outlines some limitations of these theories. Additionally, it describes various quantitative and qualitative methods used for technology forecasting like trend extrapolation, growth curves, Delphi method, relevance trees, and morphological analysis. It provides details on how these methods are applied and discusses their relevance and limitations.
Types of technology transfer & acquisition; Modes of technology transfer; Importance, barriers & steps in internal technology transfer; Importance, barriers & steps in external technology transfer; Management of technology acquisition by a nation;
Technology management links engineering, science, and management disciplines to plan, develop, and implement technological capabilities. Technology is defined as the application of knowledge for practical purposes. There are three levels of technology development - individual ideas, verified ideas through experimentation, and embodied knowledge in products/services. Technology development is socially constructed and depends on opportunity, appropriability, transferability, and resources. Firms are viewed as open systems that interface with customers, competitors, and other environmental factors. The management of technology focuses on developing capabilities and deploying them in markets to accomplish organizational goals.
The document discusses technology life cycles and diffusion of technology. It explains that a technology's performance follows an S-curve pattern over time, with distinct stages of embryonic, growth, and maturity. Understanding this cycle is important for strategic planning. It also discusses how technologies are influenced by both technology push from scientific discoveries and market pull from consumer demand. The rate of adoption of new technologies depends on how advantageous, compatible, complex, trialable, and observable it is.
At the national level, technology management ensures sustainable technological competitiveness and economic growth through developing technology strategies, forecasting, assessing new technologies, managing knowledge, and ensuring environmental sustainability.
At the enterprise level, key tasks include technology planning, R&D management, innovation management, and strategic management of technology to ensure competitive advantage. The strategic technology management system takes a lifecycle approach including phases such as technology creation, monitoring, assessment, transfer, acceptance, utilization, maturity assessment, and managed decline.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in the management of technology. It discusses management of technology at the macro and micro levels. It also defines technology and different types including product, process, and management technology. Additionally, it covers technology components, classifications of technology levels from high to low, and levels of technological capability at the firm level from acquisitive to innovative. Finally, it distinguishes between invention and innovation, and types of innovations from incremental to radical.
The path a technology follows through time is termed its technology trajectory. Technology trajectories are most often used to represent the technology’s rate of performance improvement or its rate of adoption in the marketplace. Though many factors can influence these technology trajectories (as discussed in both this chapter and the following chapters), some patterns have been consistently identified in technology trajectories across many industry contexts and over many periods. Understanding these patterns of technological innovation provides a useful foundation that we will build upon in the later chapters on formulating technology strategy.
Technology diffusion refers to the spread of new technologies and applications across nations, organizations, industries, and users. It involves the study of how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technologies are adopted. There are several factors that influence the diffusion of technologies within businesses, including the relative advantages over existing technologies, compatibility with existing values, ease of understanding and application, and ability to experiment. Technologies typically diffuse first within innovative organizations, then major competitors, and finally smaller organizations and laggards. The rate of diffusion depends on profitability and investment requirements.
Technology strategy is shaped by a firm's technological capabilities and competencies, which are developed through enacting the strategy. The document outlines a framework for technology strategy with four stances: competitive strategy, value chain, resources commitment, and management. It also discusses how technological capability, competence, substance of strategy, and enactment are interrelated in developing and implementing an effective technology strategy.
- Technology absorption refers to acquiring, developing, assimilating, and utilizing technological knowledge and capabilities from external sources. It involves hardware, software, brainware, and support networks.
- Technology adaptation occurs when parameters of acquired technology are changed to meet local needs or infrastructure constraints.
- Technology diffusion is the spread of new technologies, products, services, or processes from one entity to another over time. It typically follows an S-curve adoption pattern from innovators to early adopters to the mainstream.
- Organizations must properly manage technology absorption with support from management, clear agreements, training, and compliance with government guidelines requiring disclosure of absorption efforts.
Technology and Managing People Keeping the “Human” in Human Resources Jo Balucanag - Bitonio
The document discusses how human resource management has evolved from a personnel function to managing people as assets, and how this evolution is closely tied to advances in technology. It outlines Gregory's framework for technology management, which is a 5-step process that includes identifying technology needs, selecting technologies, acquiring them, exploiting technologies, and protecting knowledge. The document argues that managing technology and people go hand in hand, and that HR must understand how technology supports human capital management. It also presents several research propositions about how technology impacts HR functions like values and staffing in organizations.
Chapter 3 types and patterns of innovationMuhammad Anang
The path a technology follows through time is termed its technology trajectory. Technology trajectories are most often used to represent the technology’s rate of performance improvement or its rate of adoption in the marketplace.
This document discusses different approaches to technology strategy. It describes the positioning approach, which focuses on market structure and a firm's position within an industry. It also describes the resource-based approach, which starts with a firm's competencies and resources. The document outlines rationalist and incremental approaches and provides details on methodologies from Porter, A.D. Little, Booz Allen & Hamilton, McKinsey, Prahalad and Hamel, D'Aveni, and Itami and Numagami.
2Technology Acquisition and Technology ForecastingSelvaKumar679440
This document discusses technology acquisition and forecasting. It begins with an overview of the module and syllabus, which covers topics like acquiring new technologies, technology forecasting methods, and technology development. It then provides details on different aspects of technology acquisition, including motivations for acquisition, sources for acquiring technology, and the stages of the technology innovation chain. The document also discusses technology forecasting, including its definition, use, difficulties, techniques and methods like brainstorming and trend extrapolation. It describes how forecasts can inform the planning process and outlines the role forecasts play. Finally, it introduces the concept of a hype curve for technologies.
The document discusses technology management and HP. It describes technology management as allowing organizations to manage technological fundamentals to gain competitive advantages. It then provides details about HP's history, products, customers, patents, research labs, acquisitions, and approach to adopting technologies.
This document discusses technology management. It defines technology as the application of science for industrial use. The four elements of technology are technique, knowledge, organization, and product. Technology is driven by innovation, stakeholders, customers, sponsors, and IT standards. There are different categories of technology such as black box, disembodied, embodied, generic, proprietary, and service technologies. Effective technology management leads to benefits like easier work, increased job satisfaction, higher profits, and a more competitive business. The relationship between business strategy and technology strategy is also covered.
Technology management (MOT) involves the development, planning, implementation, and assessment of technological capabilities to achieve organizational strategic objectives. At the national level, MOT aims to ensure competitive technological advantage, while at the enterprise level, it focuses on gaining and maintaining a strong technological position to support competitive strategies. Key tasks of MOT at the enterprise level include technology planning, R&D management, and innovation management. Strategic management of technology (SMOT) adopts a long-term perspective and impacts all organizational levels and functions. An effective strategic technology management system (STMS) follows an eight-phase systems life cycle approach for strategic MOT.
Introduction to Management of TechnologyTarek Salah
This document discusses various topics related to the management of technology, including:
- Definitions of management of technology at the firm and national levels.
- Drivers of technological change in the 21st century and how to manage technologies within organizations.
- The relationship between technology, markets, and society.
- Frameworks for analyzing a company's technology capabilities and opportunities, including technology space maps and horizons of growth models.
- The difference between invention, innovation, and bringing innovations to market.
- Models of the technology and product lifecycles.
- Types of innovations like disruptive vs. sustaining and the role of entrepreneurship in driving technological progress.
This document discusses technology forecasting and planning. It outlines various methods for scanning the environment, forecasting technologies, developing technology roadmaps, and integrating business and technology strategies. These include expert opinions using the Delphi method, trend analysis, modeling, and scenario analysis. The document also describes frameworks for technology auditing, assessing a technology portfolio, and the role of the chief technology officer in technology forecasting and strategic planning.
This document discusses technology transfer and technology acquisition. It begins by defining technology transfer as the process of transferring skills, knowledge, technologies and manufacturing methods between organizations. There are two main types of technology transfer - horizontal transfer between areas/countries, and vertical transfer from research to production. Technology acquisition involves obtaining new technologies internally through R&D or externally through partnerships. Nations regulate technology flows in/out to balance economic development and dependence on external sources.
Research & development strategies across different industriesVaishakh PV
This document discusses research and development (R&D) strategies for various industries. It begins by defining R&D and providing examples of R&D strategies used in the automotive, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, and technology industries. Specific R&D approaches and elements of an effective R&D strategy are described, including architecture, processes, people, and portfolio. The document also discusses Toyota's global R&D vision and activities focused on environmental technology, safety technology, and intelligent transport systems.
The document discusses various theories and methods related to technology forecasting. It defines technology and discusses theories on the process of technological change proposed by various scholars. It also outlines some limitations of these theories. Additionally, it describes various quantitative and qualitative methods used for technology forecasting like trend extrapolation, growth curves, Delphi method, relevance trees, and morphological analysis. It provides details on how these methods are applied and discusses their relevance and limitations.
Types of technology transfer & acquisition; Modes of technology transfer; Importance, barriers & steps in internal technology transfer; Importance, barriers & steps in external technology transfer; Management of technology acquisition by a nation;
Technology management links engineering, science, and management disciplines to plan, develop, and implement technological capabilities. Technology is defined as the application of knowledge for practical purposes. There are three levels of technology development - individual ideas, verified ideas through experimentation, and embodied knowledge in products/services. Technology development is socially constructed and depends on opportunity, appropriability, transferability, and resources. Firms are viewed as open systems that interface with customers, competitors, and other environmental factors. The management of technology focuses on developing capabilities and deploying them in markets to accomplish organizational goals.
The document discusses technology life cycles and diffusion of technology. It explains that a technology's performance follows an S-curve pattern over time, with distinct stages of embryonic, growth, and maturity. Understanding this cycle is important for strategic planning. It also discusses how technologies are influenced by both technology push from scientific discoveries and market pull from consumer demand. The rate of adoption of new technologies depends on how advantageous, compatible, complex, trialable, and observable it is.
At the national level, technology management ensures sustainable technological competitiveness and economic growth through developing technology strategies, forecasting, assessing new technologies, managing knowledge, and ensuring environmental sustainability.
At the enterprise level, key tasks include technology planning, R&D management, innovation management, and strategic management of technology to ensure competitive advantage. The strategic technology management system takes a lifecycle approach including phases such as technology creation, monitoring, assessment, transfer, acceptance, utilization, maturity assessment, and managed decline.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in the management of technology. It discusses management of technology at the macro and micro levels. It also defines technology and different types including product, process, and management technology. Additionally, it covers technology components, classifications of technology levels from high to low, and levels of technological capability at the firm level from acquisitive to innovative. Finally, it distinguishes between invention and innovation, and types of innovations from incremental to radical.
The path a technology follows through time is termed its technology trajectory. Technology trajectories are most often used to represent the technology’s rate of performance improvement or its rate of adoption in the marketplace. Though many factors can influence these technology trajectories (as discussed in both this chapter and the following chapters), some patterns have been consistently identified in technology trajectories across many industry contexts and over many periods. Understanding these patterns of technological innovation provides a useful foundation that we will build upon in the later chapters on formulating technology strategy.
Technology diffusion refers to the spread of new technologies and applications across nations, organizations, industries, and users. It involves the study of how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technologies are adopted. There are several factors that influence the diffusion of technologies within businesses, including the relative advantages over existing technologies, compatibility with existing values, ease of understanding and application, and ability to experiment. Technologies typically diffuse first within innovative organizations, then major competitors, and finally smaller organizations and laggards. The rate of diffusion depends on profitability and investment requirements.
Technology strategy is shaped by a firm's technological capabilities and competencies, which are developed through enacting the strategy. The document outlines a framework for technology strategy with four stances: competitive strategy, value chain, resources commitment, and management. It also discusses how technological capability, competence, substance of strategy, and enactment are interrelated in developing and implementing an effective technology strategy.
- Technology absorption refers to acquiring, developing, assimilating, and utilizing technological knowledge and capabilities from external sources. It involves hardware, software, brainware, and support networks.
- Technology adaptation occurs when parameters of acquired technology are changed to meet local needs or infrastructure constraints.
- Technology diffusion is the spread of new technologies, products, services, or processes from one entity to another over time. It typically follows an S-curve adoption pattern from innovators to early adopters to the mainstream.
- Organizations must properly manage technology absorption with support from management, clear agreements, training, and compliance with government guidelines requiring disclosure of absorption efforts.
Technology and Managing People Keeping the “Human” in Human Resources Jo Balucanag - Bitonio
The document discusses how human resource management has evolved from a personnel function to managing people as assets, and how this evolution is closely tied to advances in technology. It outlines Gregory's framework for technology management, which is a 5-step process that includes identifying technology needs, selecting technologies, acquiring them, exploiting technologies, and protecting knowledge. The document argues that managing technology and people go hand in hand, and that HR must understand how technology supports human capital management. It also presents several research propositions about how technology impacts HR functions like values and staffing in organizations.
Chapter 3 types and patterns of innovationMuhammad Anang
The path a technology follows through time is termed its technology trajectory. Technology trajectories are most often used to represent the technology’s rate of performance improvement or its rate of adoption in the marketplace.
This document discusses different approaches to technology strategy. It describes the positioning approach, which focuses on market structure and a firm's position within an industry. It also describes the resource-based approach, which starts with a firm's competencies and resources. The document outlines rationalist and incremental approaches and provides details on methodologies from Porter, A.D. Little, Booz Allen & Hamilton, McKinsey, Prahalad and Hamel, D'Aveni, and Itami and Numagami.
2Technology Acquisition and Technology ForecastingSelvaKumar679440
This document discusses technology acquisition and forecasting. It begins with an overview of the module and syllabus, which covers topics like acquiring new technologies, technology forecasting methods, and technology development. It then provides details on different aspects of technology acquisition, including motivations for acquisition, sources for acquiring technology, and the stages of the technology innovation chain. The document also discusses technology forecasting, including its definition, use, difficulties, techniques and methods like brainstorming and trend extrapolation. It describes how forecasts can inform the planning process and outlines the role forecasts play. Finally, it introduces the concept of a hype curve for technologies.
The document defines key terms related to science, technology, engineering, research and development, innovation, and technology management. It then provides details on technology, including its characteristics, components, differences between science and technology, and technology forecasting methods. The document also discusses technology acquisition, absorption, strategic alliances, and international strategies for technology development.
The document discusses the advantages of advanced technology in domestic and global markets. It outlines how technological advancement leads to economic growth and a wealthier nation by making organizations more efficient, competitive, and profitable. It also describes technology life cycles and strategies, including scanning the environment, strategic planning, forecasting, and analyzing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The technology policy aims to promote scientific temper, skills, careers in science and research, infrastructure for R&D, private sector participation, and innovations that create wealth.
Your Challenge
Infrastructure, by focusing on the reliability, availability, and serviceability of existing platforms, is perceived as a cost center rather than a business enabler.
Business stakeholders look to external vendors, rather than Infrastructure, to exploit emerging technologies. This leads to duplication of effort, inconsistent standards, and ineffective IT governance.
Infrastructure directors are unable to draw a line showing how their activities directly support the overall business goals.
Our Advice
Critical Insight
Think of the roadmap as a service, not a product. Its value is inversely proportional to the time since its last update.
Alignment perception issues can be addressed by having the infrastructure practice formally engage and communicate with business stakeholders.
Shadow IT can provide business-ready initiatives that need only to be tweaked to align with Infrastructure’s internal goals.
Impact and Result
This blueprint will help you build:
A formal channel and way of communicating value bottom-up and top-down between IT and the executive team.
A methodology to prioritize and create projects that generate business value.
A tool that can produce multiple outputs of value for different audiences using the same data.
An ongoing roadmap process, rather than a static document, that is able to adjust and react to evolving business circumstances.
Nem360 2017 setting technology trends into the strategic context v200Markku Rehberger
Markku Rehberger is a project manager for GDPR compliance who has experience in various industries including IT, manufacturing, energy, and construction. In his presentation, he discusses the need for companies to develop digital strategies that leverage new technologies in order to stay competitive. He notes that most companies currently lack clear strategies and the management capabilities needed to effectively utilize technology. Rehberger advocates that companies analyze strategic contexts, design new business capabilities directed by technology, and focus on automation and cognitive computing in order to prevail against competitors in the digital age.
The document provides an overview of technology auditing and internal auditing processes. It discusses:
1. The objectives and composition of technology audits, which identify potential issues, assess capabilities, and optimize technology use.
2. The types of audits - internal audits assess processes, external audits are implemented by external parties, and continuous auditing is ongoing.
3. The steps for internal audits, which include developing audit strategies, planning specific audits, conducting audits, communicating results, and advising on improvements.
This document discusses the importance of managing technology risks for municipal governments. It identifies six categories of technology risk: cybersecurity, financial, operational, legal, reputational, and societal. Cybersecurity risks like data breaches and network intrusions are discussed in depth. The document emphasizes that developing technological proficiency requires strong governance, planning, cyber hygiene practices, and technical competency. It provides a five-stage model for assessing an organization's maturity in managing technology risks and recommends that all organizations start prioritizing technological proficiency.
A Guide to Business Process Outsourcing - CogneesolCogneesol
Business Process Outsourcing is becoming the latest trend in recent years. Know about the factors driving the need for outsourcing business solutions and common traps of outsourcing. Also know what to outsource or what type of business solutions are suitable for you to improve the overall productivity of your business process.
This document discusses a roundtable on continuous auditing and risk monitoring. The agenda includes introductions, a discussion of what the market is doing, the role of automation, and a roundtable discussion. Key points from the discussion include: determining the appropriate frequency of auditing and monitoring based on risk; continuous auditing and monitoring should be risk-based and focus on critical areas; and technology can enable more frequent auditing if needed but not all transactions need continuous evaluation.
This document discusses Sberbank's approach to deploying innovative technologies. It outlines Sberbank's technology innovation strategy, activities, and management model. The strategy involves monitoring technology trends, exploring new ideas through pilots, and demonstrating potential solutions. Sberbank manages a portfolio of innovation projects and assesses their maturity, value gaps, and alignment with strategic initiatives. The document provides templates for tracking innovation projects and managing the project portfolio. It also discusses potential derailment factors for technology innovation efforts.
This document discusses Sberbank's approach to deploying innovative technologies. It outlines Sberbank's technology innovation strategy, activities, and management model. The strategy involves monitoring technology trends, exploring new ideas through pilots, and demonstrating potential solutions. Sberbank manages a portfolio of innovation projects and assesses their maturity, value gaps, and alignment with strategic initiatives. The document provides templates for tracking innovation projects and managing the project portfolio. It also discusses potential derailment factors for technology innovation efforts.
This document provides an overview of a course on Technology and Innovation Management. The course objectives are to discuss key concepts like technology, innovation, and technology management. It will cover topics like acquiring and exploiting new technologies, managing R&D, and the factors that influence the adoption of innovations. Assessment will include group activities, projects, and a final exam. The document also discusses the nature of technology and how it has impacted civilization. It outlines the major areas, characteristics, and methods of technology management.
Technology intelligence (TI) aims to identify technological opportunities and threats that could impact a company's future growth and survival. It involves capturing and disseminating technological information for strategic planning and decision making. As technology lifecycles shorten and businesses globalize, effective TI capabilities are important for understanding changes in the external environment, facilitating strategic thinking, and enhancing a company's ability to respond to changes. TI can be internal, through a technology audit of a company's assets and capabilities, or external, through technology mapping. The purpose of a technology audit is to collect information on a company's technological level, understand its needs and capabilities, and prepare recommendations and an action plan to offer relevant services to help the company.
The document provides an overview of technology management. It defines science and technology and discusses the differences between the two. It also describes the various types of technologies, including generic, basic, key, embodied, disembodied, system, infrastructure, hybrid, and emerging technologies. Additionally, it covers technology life cycles, the components of a technology portfolio, and the relationship between technology and a nation's wealth. Finally, it discusses the management of technology at the national and enterprise levels and the strategic management of technology.
How Technology Can Enhance Your NonProfit Part 1The TNS Group
Technology can enhance nonprofits in several ways:
1) Upgrading technology can increase productivity and efficiency, streamline operations, and enhance fundraising efforts while also improving collaboration and ensuring data security.
2) Both private and public funding is available for technology upgrades, and working with financial advisors experienced in these areas can help nonprofits plan organizational changes through technology.
3) Including technology in strategic plans provides documentation to support discussions with donors about how upgrades further the nonprofit's mission and allow for technical assessments to outline necessary infrastructure changes.
IT Portfolio Management Whitepaper FINALSteven Palmer
This document proposes a solution for Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) Expeditionary Warfare Center (EXWC) to better manage its research and development (R&D) portfolio using an IT portfolio management (IT PFM) approach. The key aspects of the proposed solution include:
1. Implementing a formalized IT PFM process with standardized metrics and milestones to track R&D projects from start to finish.
2. Developing visual dashboards to provide oversight of the entire R&D portfolio and enable comparison of projects.
3. Consolidating all project information and artifacts in a single system to improve collaboration, knowledge management, and oversight of the R&D portfolio.
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Adani Group's Active Interest In Increasing Its Presence in the Cement Manufa...Adani case
Time and again, the business group has taken up new business ventures, each of which has allowed it to expand its horizons further and reach new heights. Even amidst the Adani CBI Investigation, the firm has always focused on improving its cement business.
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Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...Niswey
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Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPTFreelance
Business analysis - Prescriptive analytics Introduction to Prescriptive analytics
Prescriptive Modeling
Non Linear Optimization
Demonstrating Business Performance Improvement
1. Technology Intelligence & ForecastingTechnology Intelligence & Forecasting
By: Muhammad AzadBy: Muhammad Azad
1–1
2. What is Technology Intelligence ?What is Technology Intelligence ?
• Technology Intelligence (TI) is an activity that enables companies toTechnology Intelligence (TI) is an activity that enables companies to
identify the technological opportunities and threats that could affectidentify the technological opportunities and threats that could affect
the future growth and survival of their business.the future growth and survival of their business.
• The Centre for Technology Management defines TechnologyThe Centre for Technology Management defines Technology
Intelligence as "the capture and delivery of technological informationIntelligence as "the capture and delivery of technological information
as part of the process whereby an organization develops anas part of the process whereby an organization develops an
awareness of technological threats and opportunities.”awareness of technological threats and opportunities.”
• Technology Intelligence aims to capture and disseminate theTechnology Intelligence aims to capture and disseminate the
technological information needed for strategic planning and decisiontechnological information needed for strategic planning and decision
making.making.
• Companies install an intelligence system (technology, market,Companies install an intelligence system (technology, market,
business or competitive intelligence) to collect and analyzebusiness or competitive intelligence) to collect and analyze
information on market, product, and technology changes and oninformation on market, product, and technology changes and on
other environmental transformations in order to increase theirother environmental transformations in order to increase their
decision-making quality and competitiveness.decision-making quality and competitiveness.
1–2
4. What is Technology Intelligence ?What is Technology Intelligence ?
• Why Technology Intelligence?Why Technology Intelligence?
• As technology life cycles shorten and business becomeAs technology life cycles shorten and business become
more globalized; having effective T I capabilities ismore globalized; having effective T I capabilities is
becoming increasingly important.becoming increasingly important.
• T I provides an understanding of current & potentialT I provides an understanding of current & potential
changes taking place in the environment.changes taking place in the environment.
• T I provides important information for strategic decision-T I provides important information for strategic decision-
makersmakers
• T I facilitates and fosters strategic thinking inT I facilitates and fosters strategic thinking in
organizations.organizations.
• If conducted properly, T I leads to enhanced capacity &If conducted properly, T I leads to enhanced capacity &
commitment to understanding, anticipating andcommitment to understanding, anticipating and
responding to external changesresponding to external changes
1–4
5. Levels of Technology Intelligence ?Levels of Technology Intelligence ?
Three levels of T IThree levels of T I
•Macro level – technological trends & developments which canMacro level – technological trends & developments which can
influence entire economy / major sectorsinfluence entire economy / major sectors
•Industry or business level - technological trends &Industry or business level - technological trends &
developments which can influence specific industries /developments which can influence specific industries /
businessesbusinesses
•Program or project level – technological trends &Program or project level – technological trends &
developments which can influence specific technology relateddevelopments which can influence specific technology related
program or projectprogram or project
The above three levels differ in terms of• Breadth of technologyThe above three levels differ in terms of• Breadth of technology
•Clarity of trendsClarity of trends
•Degree of precision of trendsDegree of precision of trends
•Different levels of technology intelligence can be applied /Different levels of technology intelligence can be applied /
useful in different contextuseful in different context
1–5
6. What is Technology Mapping ?What is Technology Mapping ?
• Technology Intelligence could be both internal asTechnology Intelligence could be both internal as
well as external. Internal technology intelligencewell as external. Internal technology intelligence
is called technology audit.is called technology audit.
• External technology intelligence is calledExternal technology intelligence is called
technology mapping.technology mapping.
• Mapping technology environment refers to theMapping technology environment refers to the
process of gathering external data and analyzingprocess of gathering external data and analyzing
it to derive the intelligence for major strategicit to derive the intelligence for major strategic
decisions.decisions.
1–6
7. What is Technology Mapping ?What is Technology Mapping ?
Process of mapping the technology environmentProcess of mapping the technology environment
consists of four interlinked steps:consists of four interlinked steps:
1.1.Scanning the environment to detect ongoing &Scanning the environment to detect ongoing &
emerging changesemerging changes
2.2.Monitoring specific environment trends &Monitoring specific environment trends &
patternspatterns
3.3.Forecasting the future direction of technologicalForecasting the future direction of technological
changeschanges
4.4.Assessing the current & future environmentalAssessing the current & future environmental
changes for understanding their strategic &changes for understanding their strategic &
organizational implicationsorganizational implications
1–7
8. Steps in gathering TechnologySteps in gathering Technology
Intellegence.Intellegence.
1–8
9. What is Technology Forecasting ?What is Technology Forecasting ?
• Technological forecastingTechnological forecasting
is a combination of creative thinking, expert viewsis a combination of creative thinking, expert views
and alternative scenarios to make a contribution toand alternative scenarios to make a contribution to
strategic planning. The future is almost bystrategic planning. The future is almost by definitiondefinition
unknown, but in bothunknown, but in both forecastingforecasting and foresightand foresight
activities the judgments or opinions of experts areactivities the judgments or opinions of experts are
used.used.
1–9
10. Elements of Technology ForecastingElements of Technology Forecasting
1.1. Time of the forecast – a single point of time, orTime of the forecast – a single point of time, or
a time span.a time span.
2.2. Approach in Technology ForecastingApproach in Technology Forecasting
3.3. Statement of functional capability /Statement of functional capability /
performance characteristics of technology – aperformance characteristics of technology – a
quantitative measure of its ability to carry outquantitative measure of its ability to carry out
the functions.the functions.
4.4. Statement of ProbabilityStatement of Probability
1.1. Probability of achieving a given level of functionalProbability of achieving a given level of functional
capability by a certain time; orcapability by a certain time; or
2.2. Probability distribution over the levels that might beProbability distribution over the levels that might be
achieved by a specific time.achieved by a specific time.
1–10
12. Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?
• Since 1990s rate of technological change hasSince 1990s rate of technological change has
become faster. Individual, organization or nationbecome faster. Individual, organization or nation
affected by technological change as itaffected by technological change as it
invalidates previous resource allocation basedinvalidates previous resource allocation based
on historical facts / data. Therefore technologyon historical facts / data. Therefore technology
forecast is no more avoidable.forecast is no more avoidable.
• Following factors necessitate forecast ofFollowing factors necessitate forecast of
technology:technology:
• To maximize gain from events external to anTo maximize gain from events external to an
organizationorganization
• To minimize loss associated with uncontrollableTo minimize loss associated with uncontrollable
events external to an organization.events external to an organization. 1–12
13. Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?
• To maximize gain from events that are result of actionTo maximize gain from events that are result of action
taken by an organization.taken by an organization.
• To offset the actions of hostile or competitiveTo offset the actions of hostile or competitive
organizationsorganizations
• To forecast demand for production and /or inventoryTo forecast demand for production and /or inventory
control.control.
• To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning.To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning.
• To forecast demand to ensure adequate staffingTo forecast demand to ensure adequate staffing
• To develop administrative plans & policies internal to anTo develop administrative plans & policies internal to an
organization.organization.
• To develop policies that apply to people who are not partTo develop policies that apply to people who are not part
of the organizationof the organization
1–13
14. Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?
According to Ralph Lenz, technology forecast can play followingAccording to Ralph Lenz, technology forecast can play following
specific roles in improving the quality of technology decisions:specific roles in improving the quality of technology decisions:
•The forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible toThe forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible to
go.go.
•It establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the plan canIt establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the plan can
be made to take full advantage of such rates of progress,be made to take full advantage of such rates of progress,
•It describes the alternatives that are open for choice.It describes the alternatives that are open for choice.
•It indicates the possibilities that might be achieved if desired.It indicates the possibilities that might be achieved if desired.
•It provides a reference standard for the plan. Thus the plan canIt provides a reference standard for the plan. Thus the plan can
be compared with the forecast at any point in time to determinebe compared with the forecast at any point in time to determine
whether it can still be fulfilled or whether because of changes inwhether it can still be fulfilled or whether because of changes in
the forecast, it has to be changed.the forecast, it has to be changed.
•It furnishes warning signals which can alert the decision makerIt furnishes warning signals which can alert the decision maker
that it will not be possible to continue present activities.that it will not be possible to continue present activities.
1–14
15. Techniques of Technology ForecastingTechniques of Technology Forecasting
Ideally technology forecasting should be rational andIdeally technology forecasting should be rational and
analytical based on available pertinent data. In followinganalytical based on available pertinent data. In following
three situations / circumstances expert opinion may bethree situations / circumstances expert opinion may be
sought for making technology forecast:sought for making technology forecast:
•No historical data exists – as it could be new technology /No historical data exists – as it could be new technology /
new area of research & developmentnew area of research & development
•Impact of external factors may be more important thanImpact of external factors may be more important than
the factors which governed previous development ofthe factors which governed previous development of
technology- i.e. past data has become irrelevant andtechnology- i.e. past data has become irrelevant and
cannot be relied for making technology forecastcannot be relied for making technology forecast
•Ethical or moral considerations may dominate economicEthical or moral considerations may dominate economic
& technical considerations thus seeking lesser reliance on& technical considerations thus seeking lesser reliance on
available data.available data.
1–15
16. Techniques of Technology ForecastingTechniques of Technology Forecasting
In above three situations, as the historical data is eitherIn above three situations, as the historical data is either
not available or it has become irrelevant, group of expertsnot available or it has become irrelevant, group of experts
are used to make technology forecast; as there is an oldare used to make technology forecast; as there is an old
saying -- “Two heads are better than one.” By involving asaying -- “Two heads are better than one.” By involving a
number of experts, there is pooling of divergent ideas andnumber of experts, there is pooling of divergent ideas and
various dimensions may be analyzed in better mannervarious dimensions may be analyzed in better manner
thus leading to a better technology forecast.thus leading to a better technology forecast.
•A. Techniques involving a group of experts are :A. Techniques involving a group of experts are :
1.1. CommitteesCommittees
2.2. DelphiDelphi
•B. Other Techniques based on historical data are :B. Other Techniques based on historical data are :
3.3. Exploratory ForecastExploratory Forecast
4.4. Normative ForecastNormative Forecast
1–16
17. 1. Committees1. Committees
Key advantages of committees are as under:Key advantages of committees are as under:
•Sum total of knowledge is greater than individualSum total of knowledge is greater than individual
knowledgeknowledge
•Number of factors considered would be moreNumber of factors considered would be more
than those considered by an individualthan those considered by an individual
•There is pooling of divergent ideas and variousThere is pooling of divergent ideas and various
dimensions may be analyzed in a better mannerdimensions may be analyzed in a better manner
•Helps in avoiding individual biasesHelps in avoiding individual biases
•Better knowledge & awareness of one memberBetter knowledge & awareness of one member
may compensate for lack of knowledge of anothermay compensate for lack of knowledge of another
member.member.
1–17
18. 1. Committees1. Committees
Few limitations associated with committees are :Few limitations associated with committees are :
•There is no guarantee that misinformation will beThere is no guarantee that misinformation will be
cancelled out by using a group of experts.cancelled out by using a group of experts.
•There is no guarantee that wrong ideas /There is no guarantee that wrong ideas /
judgments will be cancelled out by good ideas /judgments will be cancelled out by good ideas /
judgments.judgments.
•There is usually social pressure to agree withThere is usually social pressure to agree with
majority, which may be implicit or explicit.majority, which may be implicit or explicit.
•Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself.Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself.
Good forecasts may thus be watered down in aGood forecasts may thus be watered down in a
bid to reach a consensus.bid to reach a consensus.
1–18
19. 1. Committees1. Committees
• A strong vocal minority may overwhelmA strong vocal minority may overwhelm
majority , thus making process vulnerable tomajority , thus making process vulnerable to
hijack by dominant individualshijack by dominant individuals
• Vested interests may be presented very stronglyVested interests may be presented very strongly
in the beginning thus setting defined direction inin the beginning thus setting defined direction in
the beginningthe beginning
• Entire group may share a common bias if aEntire group may share a common bias if a
common culture is shared by all of them thuscommon culture is shared by all of them thus
nullifying advantage of the group.nullifying advantage of the group.
• There may be emotional involvement of certainThere may be emotional involvement of certain
members, leading to conflictsmembers, leading to conflicts
Lot of time and efforts may be consumed in reachingLot of time and efforts may be consumed in reaching
to a consensusto a consensus
1–19
20. 2. Delphi2. Delphi
Three characteristics that distinguish Delphi fromThree characteristics that distinguish Delphi from
conventional face to face group interactions ( likeconventional face to face group interactions ( like
committee) are as under:committee) are as under:
1.1.Anonymity - anonymity is maintained throughAnonymity - anonymity is maintained through
questionnaire as under :questionnaire as under :
a.a. Avoids possibility of identifying a specific opinionAvoids possibility of identifying a specific opinion
with a particular person.with a particular person.
b.b. Originator can thus change his mind withoutOriginator can thus change his mind without
publicity admitting that he has done so.publicity admitting that he has done so.
c.c. Each idea can be considered on its merits,Each idea can be considered on its merits,
regardless of the fact whether group members mayregardless of the fact whether group members may
have high or low opinion about originator.have high or low opinion about originator.
1–20
21. 2. Delphi2. Delphi
2.2. Interaction with controlled feed backInteraction with controlled feed back
Group interaction is through questionnaires andGroup interaction is through questionnaires and
answers to questionnairesanswers to questionnaires
Coordinator / moderator picks relevant information's &Coordinator / moderator picks relevant information's &
each group member is informed of status of group’seach group member is informed of status of group’s
collective opinion & arguments for & against eachcollective opinion & arguments for & against each
point of view.point of view.
Controlled feedback prevents group taking rigid standControlled feedback prevents group taking rigid stand
& helps to concentrate on its original objectives.& helps to concentrate on its original objectives.
3.3. Statistical Group responseStatistical Group response
Delphi presents the statistical group reponse thatDelphi presents the statistical group reponse that
presents the opinions of entire group giving both thepresents the opinions of entire group giving both the
“Centre” of the group and the degree of spread about“Centre” of the group and the degree of spread about
that centerthat center
1–21
22. 2. Delphi2. Delphi
Limitations / Disadvantages of DelphiLimitations / Disadvantages of Delphi
The success of Delphi mainly lies in coordinator.The success of Delphi mainly lies in coordinator.
The experts must carry relevant experienceThe experts must carry relevant experience
Further like committee, Delphi is based on opinionsFurther like committee, Delphi is based on opinions
and not on data.and not on data.
1–22
23. 3. Exploratory Forecast3. Exploratory Forecast
An Exploratory Forecast starts with past &An Exploratory Forecast starts with past &
present conditions and projects these topresent conditions and projects these to
estimate future conditions.estimate future conditions.
The exploratory forecast is based on technologyThe exploratory forecast is based on technology
push and is opportunity oriented i.e. searchingpush and is opportunity oriented i.e. searching
for future opportunities.for future opportunities.
Exploratory forecast implicitly assumes thatExploratory forecast implicitly assumes that
required performance can be achieved byrequired performance can be achieved by
reasonable extension of past performance.reasonable extension of past performance.
Commonly used techniques of exploratoryCommonly used techniques of exploratory
forecast are : Trend extrapolationforecast are : Trend extrapolation
1–23
24. 3. Exploratory Forecast3. Exploratory Forecast
Trend ExtrapolationTrend Extrapolation
Assumption: Time series data from the pastAssumption: Time series data from the past
contains all the information needed to forecast thecontains all the information needed to forecast the
future.future.
The forecaster extends a pattern found byThe forecaster extends a pattern found by
analyzing past time series data.analyzing past time series data.
For example: A technological forecasting toFor example: A technological forecasting to
forecast future aircraft speed …. by studyingforecast future aircraft speed …. by studying
historical time series of aircraft speed records, byhistorical time series of aircraft speed records, by
finding a pattern (trend), and extending it to thefinding a pattern (trend), and extending it to the
future to obtain a forecast.future to obtain a forecast.
1–24
25. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
A Normative Forecast starts with future needsA Normative Forecast starts with future needs
and identifies the technological performanceand identifies the technological performance
necessary to meet these required needs.necessary to meet these required needs.
The normative forecast is based on market pullThe normative forecast is based on market pull
and is mission / need –oriented i.e. finding waysand is mission / need –oriented i.e. finding ways
for meeting future needs.for meeting future needs.
Normative forecast implicitly forecasts theNormative forecast implicitly forecasts the
capabilities that will be available on thecapabilities that will be available on the
assumption that needs will be met . Thus in caseassumption that needs will be met . Thus in case
of normative forecast, meeting needs on definedof normative forecast, meeting needs on defined
future time is highly importantfuture time is highly important
1–25
27. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
Few techniques of Normative TechnologicalFew techniques of Normative Technological
Forecasting are as under:Forecasting are as under:
Relevance's TreesRelevance's Trees
Decision Matrices : Horizontal or verticalDecision Matrices : Horizontal or vertical
Morphological AnalysisMorphological Analysis
Network TechniquesNetwork Techniques
Mission Flow Diagrams etcMission Flow Diagrams etc
1–27
28. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
Morphological AnalysisMorphological Analysis
It is a normative technique developed by Fritz wicky whichIt is a normative technique developed by Fritz wicky which
provides a framework for exploring all possible solutions to aprovides a framework for exploring all possible solutions to a
particular problem. The morphological analysis involves theparticular problem. The morphological analysis involves the
systematic study of the current and future scenarios of asystematic study of the current and future scenarios of a
particular problem. Based on this study, possible gaps areparticular problem. Based on this study, possible gaps are
identified and the morphological analysis further provides aidentified and the morphological analysis further provides a
framework to explore other alternatives to fill these gaps.framework to explore other alternatives to fill these gaps.
Relevance TreesRelevance Trees
It is an organized ‘normative’ approach starting with a particularIt is an organized ‘normative’ approach starting with a particular
objective and used for forecasting as well as planning. The basicobjective and used for forecasting as well as planning. The basic
structure looks like an organizational chart and presentsstructure looks like an organizational chart and presents
information in a hierarchical structure. The hierarchy begins withinformation in a hierarchical structure. The hierarchy begins with
the objectives which are further broken down into activities andthe objectives which are further broken down into activities and
further into tasks. As one descends down, the details increase atfurther into tasks. As one descends down, the details increase at
every level. The entries when taken together at each levelevery level. The entries when taken together at each level
describe the preceding level completely. Also, all activities anddescribe the preceding level completely. Also, all activities and
tasks depicted should be mutually exclusivetasks depicted should be mutually exclusive
1–28
29. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
A mission / control flow diagram (CFD) is a diagram toA mission / control flow diagram (CFD) is a diagram to
describe the control flow of a business process, processdescribe the control flow of a business process, process
or programor program
Mission Flow Diagrams - have been originally conceivedMission Flow Diagrams - have been originally conceived
by Harold Linstone as a means of analyzing militaryby Harold Linstone as a means of analyzing military
missions. This involves mapping all the alternative routesmissions. This involves mapping all the alternative routes
or sequences by which a given task can beor sequences by which a given task can be
accomplished. The analyst needs to identify significantaccomplished. The analyst needs to identify significant
steps on each route and also determine thesteps on each route and also determine the
challenges/costs associated with each route. Thechallenges/costs associated with each route. The
performance requirements can then be derived for eachperformance requirements can then be derived for each
associated technology and the same can be used asassociated technology and the same can be used as
normative forecasts.normative forecasts.
1–29
30. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
Network TechniqueNetwork Technique
Firstly, the elements of a technological forecastingFirstly, the elements of a technological forecasting
network are formulated for the purpose of convertingnetwork are formulated for the purpose of converting
the qualitative description of a technological system tothe qualitative description of a technological system to
a stochastic (non- deterministic) network form.a stochastic (non- deterministic) network form.
Then, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of theThen, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of the
network is given.network is given.
Finally, examples are included for the purpose ofFinally, examples are included for the purpose of
illustration.illustration.
1–30