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Simple Linear Regression 1. review of least squares procedure 2. inference for least squares lines
Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Model House size House Cost Most  lots sell  for $25,000 Building a house costs  about   $75 per square foot.  House cost = 25000 + 75(Size) The model has a deterministic and a probabilistic components
The Model House cost = 25000 + 75(Size) House size House Cost Most lots sell  for $25,000   However, house cost vary even among same size houses! Since cost behave unpredictably,  we add a random component.
The Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],x y  0 Run Rise     = Rise/Run  0  and   1  are unknown population parameters, therefore are estimated  from the data.
Estimating the Coefficients ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],          Question: What should be  considered a good line? x y
The Least Squares (Regression) Line A good line is one that minimizes  the sum of squared differences between the  points and the line.
The Least Squares (Regression) Line 3 3     4 4 (1,2) 2 2 (2,4) (3,1.5) Sum of squared differences = (2 - 1) 2  + (4 - 2) 2  + (1.5 - 3) 2  + (4,3.2) (3.2 - 4) 2  = 6.89 2.5 Let us compare two lines The second line is horizontal The smaller the sum of  squared differences the better the fit of the  line to the data. 1 1 Sum of squared differences = (2 -2.5) 2  + (4 - 2.5) 2  + (1.5 - 2.5) 2  + (3.2 - 2.5) 2  = 3.99
The Estimated Coefficients To calculate the estimates of the slope and intercept of the least squares line , use the formulas:  The regression equation that estimates the equation of the first order linear model is:  Alternate formula for the slope b 1
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Independent  variable  x Dependent  variable  y The Simple Linear Regression Line
The Simple Linear Regression Line ,[object Object],[object Object],where  n = 100.
The Simple Linear Regression Line ,[object Object],[object Object],1. Scatterplot 2. Trend function 3. Tools > Data Analysis > Regression
The Simple Linear Regression Line
Interpreting the Linear Regression -Equation This is the slope of the line. For each additional mile on the odometer, the price decreases by an average of $0.0623 The intercept is b 0  = $17067. 0 No data Do not interpret the intercept as the  “ Price of cars that have not been driven” 17067
Error Variable: Required Conditions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Normality of   From the first three assumptions we have: y is normally distributed with mean E(y) =   0  +   1 x, and a constant standard deviation      x 1 x 2 x 3     The standard deviation remains constant, but the mean value changes with x  0  +   1 x 1  0  +   1 x 2  0  +   1 x 3 E(y|x 2 ) E(y|x 3 ) E(y|x 1 )
Assessing the Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],Sum of Squares for Errors ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Standard Error of Estimate
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Standard Error of Estimate, Example It is hard to assess the model based  on s    even when compared with the  mean value of y.
Testing the slope ,[object Object],  Different inputs (x) yield different outputs (y). No linear relationship. Different inputs (x) yield the same output (y). The slope is not equal to zero The slope is equal to zero Linear relationship. Linear relationship. Linear relationship. Linear relationship.                                                                                                              
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Testing the Slope where The standard error of b 1 .
[object Object],[object Object],Testing the Slope, Example
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Testing the Slope, Example
Testing the Slope, Example ,[object Object],There is overwhelming evidence to infer that the odometer reading affects the  auction selling price.
[object Object],Coefficient of determination Note that the coefficient of determination is r 2
Coefficient of determination ,[object Object],Overall variability in y The regression model The error Remains, in part, unexplained Explained in part by
Coefficient of determination x 1 x 2 y 1 y 2 Two data points (x 1 ,y 1 ) and (x 2 ,y 2 )  of a certain sample are shown. Total variation in y = Variation explained by the  regression line + Unexplained variation (error) Variation in y = SSR + SSE y
Coefficient of determination ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Coefficient of determination, Example
Coefficient of determination ,[object Object],65% of the variation in the auction selling price is explained by the  variation in odometer reading.  The rest (35%) remains unexplained by this model.
Using the Regression Equation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Point Prediction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A point prediction
Interval Estimates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Interval Estimates, Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Interval Estimates, Example ,[object Object],[object Object],t .025,98 Approximately
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Interval Estimates, Example
[object Object],The effect of the given x g  on the length of the interval
[object Object],The effect of the given x g  on the length of the interval
[object Object],The effect of the given x g  on the length of the interval
Regression Diagnostics - I ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Residual Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
For each residual we calculate  the standard deviation as follows: A Partial list of Standard residuals  Residual Analysis Standardized residual ‘i’ = Residual ‘i’  Standard deviation
It seems the residual are normally distributed with mean zero Residual Analysis
Heteroscedasticity ,[object Object],[object Object],+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + y ^ Residual The spread increases with y ^ ^ y + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
Homoscedasticity ,[object Object],[object Object]
Non Independence of Error Variables ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Patterns in the appearance of the residuals over time indicates that autocorrelation exists. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Time Residual Residual Time + + + Note the runs of positive residuals, replaced by runs of negative residuals Note the oscillating behavior of the  residuals around zero.  0 0 Non Independence of Error Variables
Outliers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The outlier causes a shift in the regression line …  but, some outliers  may be very influential An outlier An influential observation + + + + + + + + + + +
Procedure for Regression Diagnostics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Simple lin regress_inference

  • 1. Simple Linear Regression 1. review of least squares procedure 2. inference for least squares lines
  • 2.
  • 3. The Model House size House Cost Most lots sell for $25,000 Building a house costs about $75 per square foot. House cost = 25000 + 75(Size) The model has a deterministic and a probabilistic components
  • 4. The Model House cost = 25000 + 75(Size) House size House Cost Most lots sell for $25,000   However, house cost vary even among same size houses! Since cost behave unpredictably, we add a random component.
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  • 7. The Least Squares (Regression) Line A good line is one that minimizes the sum of squared differences between the points and the line.
  • 8. The Least Squares (Regression) Line 3 3     4 4 (1,2) 2 2 (2,4) (3,1.5) Sum of squared differences = (2 - 1) 2 + (4 - 2) 2 + (1.5 - 3) 2 + (4,3.2) (3.2 - 4) 2 = 6.89 2.5 Let us compare two lines The second line is horizontal The smaller the sum of squared differences the better the fit of the line to the data. 1 1 Sum of squared differences = (2 -2.5) 2 + (4 - 2.5) 2 + (1.5 - 2.5) 2 + (3.2 - 2.5) 2 = 3.99
  • 9. The Estimated Coefficients To calculate the estimates of the slope and intercept of the least squares line , use the formulas: The regression equation that estimates the equation of the first order linear model is: Alternate formula for the slope b 1
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  • 13. The Simple Linear Regression Line
  • 14. Interpreting the Linear Regression -Equation This is the slope of the line. For each additional mile on the odometer, the price decreases by an average of $0.0623 The intercept is b 0 = $17067. 0 No data Do not interpret the intercept as the “ Price of cars that have not been driven” 17067
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  • 16. The Normality of  From the first three assumptions we have: y is normally distributed with mean E(y) =  0 +  1 x, and a constant standard deviation     x 1 x 2 x 3     The standard deviation remains constant, but the mean value changes with x  0 +  1 x 1  0 +  1 x 2  0 +  1 x 3 E(y|x 2 ) E(y|x 3 ) E(y|x 1 )
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  • 28. Coefficient of determination x 1 x 2 y 1 y 2 Two data points (x 1 ,y 1 ) and (x 2 ,y 2 ) of a certain sample are shown. Total variation in y = Variation explained by the regression line + Unexplained variation (error) Variation in y = SSR + SSE y
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  • 43. For each residual we calculate the standard deviation as follows: A Partial list of Standard residuals Residual Analysis Standardized residual ‘i’ = Residual ‘i’ Standard deviation
  • 44. It seems the residual are normally distributed with mean zero Residual Analysis
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  • 48. Patterns in the appearance of the residuals over time indicates that autocorrelation exists. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Time Residual Residual Time + + + Note the runs of positive residuals, replaced by runs of negative residuals Note the oscillating behavior of the residuals around zero. 0 0 Non Independence of Error Variables
  • 49.
  • 50. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The outlier causes a shift in the regression line … but, some outliers may be very influential An outlier An influential observation + + + + + + + + + + +
  • 51.