Summary
There has never been a time in the history of our species that has seen such innovation and rapid progress; and we have never been so confounded by the world we have realized! For sure, we have crossed the Rubicon from a linear past to a non-linear future and find ourselves lacking many of the basic tools we need to fully address the major problems confronting us.
In such an environment we have to prepared to be ‘unreasonable’, to challenge established wisdom, conventions and practices. So in this session, I present three challenging cases that do just that:
1) Wireless Spectrum: It is infinite and there is no bandwidth crisis!
2) Cyber Security: We need auto-immune systems aka biology
3) Information War: The biggest threat to the survival of our species
It is not by accident that all these technologies appear to have come onto the scene at almost the same time. They are all driven, and or enabled, by the same hardware platforms based upon silicon with chip densities that now rival, or exceed, many biological lifeforms. Their ability to support increasingly complex software has seen AI and robotics become major industrial and medical tools. At the same time, Artificial Life is being applied in a more invisible manner, with Quantum Computing promising to change everything.
So why are these technologies so important? In short; they allow us to tackle and understand the most difficult problems facing our species. And all of these are complex, non-linear, with emergent properties that defy our mathematical and computing frameworks. Problems that are way beyond any biological brain include: protein folding; stem cell behaviours; drug interactions; the understanding of chemistry, biology, seismic activity, and weather systems, pollution and global warming; plus the creation of new materials, device, machine and building design.
Presented @ The University of Essex Innovation Centre for the IoD
It also turns out that they are essential for the creation of sustainable societies…
In 2015/16 a number of bodies/nations set about defining societies they would aspire to in the near future. Each vision document similarly described some idealistic, egalitarian, super-smart, human centred, state providing a near uniformity of living conditions, and opportunity. At the same time, each society would be free of adversity, with economic development guided by ecological and human need. Of course, economic growth was defined to continue in line with the past. Very nice, but a product of old linear thinking and modelling!
It is now approaching 2022 and in the past 5/7 years our base silicon technology has advanced to enjoy a >30 fold increase in computing power. Our top end mobile devices would now challenge a super computer of 1996/7 era, whist AI systems now pervade our homes, offices, vehicles, professions and all our on-line services. At the same time, information overload has started to rival some medical conditions!
All of this has also been compounded by two years of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions that have seen the normalisation of social isolation, limited travel, working and eduction from home, virtualised medicine and care, support services, shopping and meetings. In turn, this has resulted in empty offices, towns and cities. Concurently, climate change, global warming, pollution, finite resources, a stressed planetary system, and social unrest have suddenly become urgent issues. Against this backdrop it really seems to be time to revisit those Society 5.0 Visions and the limited linear thinking that contrived them!
In this presentation we examine many of the core parameters and assumptions to highlight existing, or soon to be realised, solutions and remedies. In doing so, a different picture of Society 5.0 emerges.
The biggest force for social change since the first industrial revolution has been adjusting to, and taking advantage of, the new and accelerating capabilities of our advancing technologies. And in our entire history, the dominant technology driver has been silicon-based electronics. It has prompted revolutions in Computing, Telecoms, Automation, AI, and Robotics that radically changed the human condition. Today, that same exponential revolution is accelerating us into Industry 4.0 and onto Industry 5.0.
The consequential transformation of medicine, industrial design and production, farming, food, processing, supply and demand has seen living standards improve and life expectancy widen. Many of our institutions have also seen tech-driven transformations in line with industry. If there has been a down-side to this progression, it has been our inability to transform the workforce ahead of new demands. Unemployment has persisted whilst reeducation and retraining have been on the back foot, whilst, the net creation of new jobs has always exceeded the demise of the old. As a result, leading countries in the first world now have labour shortages at all levels right across the spectrum.
Recently, COVID-19 has demonstrated that we have the technology and we can rapidly reorganise and change society if we have to. So in this presentation, we examine ‘the force functions’ and changes engineered to date, and then peer over the horizon to sample what is to come in terms of technologies and working practices…
Telecom customer services appear to be stuck in the early 20th Century with the telephone call the primary channel for service provision that can take days to affect. Compare that to Google, Amazon, IBM, Apple and other modern companies where customers control service provision by the minute or second.
Modem business is driven by the accumulation of customer data, but the Telecom Industry sees vast amounts of customer-related data dormant and untapped. As a result, many new opportunities are lost. For example, the behavior of people, devices, systems, and networks give the earliest indicators of potential security problems.
OTT operators exploit networks and make far greater profits than any other sector and this might be further amplified by the roll-out of 5G. But without a fundamental rethink of FTTP, 5G will fail to deliver sufficient coverage and the advertised data rates. This pending failure is already seeing alternative solutions from outside the industry along with the realization that most ‘things’ on the IoT will never connect to the internet!
It was scientifically established in the 1970s that we are stressing the planet beyond the point where it can naturally recover. Today we are using about 50% more natural resources than can be extracted sustainably. The long history of industrialisation and population growth is now seeing climate change, extreme weather, and perhaps it is human overpopulation and terraforming that is now giving way to pandemics as we increasingly challenge and stress ecosystems.
Stressed systems react and fail in a variety of ways, and there is increasing evidence that CV-19 might just be the surprising product of human abuse of nature. What we can be certain of is that without action we will see more unpleasant and unwelcome surprises.
The Green Agenda is our biggest hope, but much of it is driven by emotion rather than deep thought, evidence, and scientific analysis. For example; recycling is mostly a fallacy and we need to think again! In reality Industry 4.0 is the first major program vested in the basics of long term sustainability.
In this presentation we give a brief overview of what I4.0 brings to the party by a focus on one major sector that is ripe for transformation. A much broader and wider treatment has been presented at previous events and numerous additional, associative, and supportive slide sets in this series are available on the web site.
Since 1986 a global debate has raged on copper or fibre in the local loop, and despite all the evidence the copper heads have pursued a path of survival at any cost with outrageous claims of what they can deliver. With claims of ‘up-to’ download speeds and homes passed (not connected), and crosstalk induced asymmetry they have never delivered what was said on the tin. And worst, with great temerity they insist on dictating to customers as to the bandwidth they really need.
We have now (probably) reached a peak of the lunacy with FTTCabinet/Kerb and pole top G.Fast developers claiming speeds of 1,000Mbit/s delivered. They can no more deliver such speeds than 10Mbit/s unless it is over impractically short spans. You can deliver 10Gbit/s over 5m of twisted pair or 100Gbit/s over 1m, but it aint of much practical use. In contrast optical fibre can deliver 1, 10, 100 Gbit/s over 100km using <10% of the energy demanded by copper.
So in November 2015 I attended my 100th conference/seminar/meeting on the topic to explain that the world is now bifurcating into those with Gbit/s fibre in the local loop and those who are sticking with copper. City and community wide FTTH is rolling out in a frenzy of frustration with the incumbent telco copperheads who continue their futile quest to squeeze the last micro-gram out of their 150 year old technologies. Only fibre is green, only fibre is future proof, only fibre is economic, and only fibre can support future business, Cloud Computing, The IoT, Smart Cities, and the 3,4,5G infill needed into the future.
It is all obvious, but here we go again! Will the UK be a world leader or laggard, in the first division, or at the back of the pack? There is a lot at stake. The first to roll out FTTH was BY in 1990, but government ignorance saw the program closed down and since then the GDP has suffered with lost business and the emigration of young start ups. But all that is insignificant compared with what is to come!
The easiest and most sensible route out of the ‘gotcha’ is to let the companies do as they wish, but empower towns and cities to install dark fibre nets, and to provide assistive funding to villages and communities to DIY Fibre. This is happening by default, but it needs to be accelerated by a modest capital investment.
The internet will not scale to support >7Bn people and >50Bn things on line, but Clouds and Networks Without Infrastructure will, and they are neither singular nor static. Clouds are entirely dynamic and multi-modal with; public, private, personal, open, closed, government and commercial clouds that are fixed, mobile, long and short lived, permanent and transitory. In addition the new degrees of freedom that Clouds afford makes them inherently more secure and resilient than any network medium we have created before. But, not all clouds are equal, and neither is all data!
The era of IT Departments providing centralised networking and security is drawing to a rapid close in the same way that sitting in front of a PC in an office all day is becoming unworkable. So, it is time to rethink what has to change in order to adapt to rapidly growing BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) and BMOB (Be My Own Boss) cultures. At the same time, ecological, social, commercial and technology demands are pushing toward more and smaller devices, the tagging and tracking of everything, whilst using less material and energy. This all demands more wireless and new modes of networking demanding more optical fibre especially in the last mile where Point to Point systems will replace the outmoded BPON and GPON technologies of the past. In this symmetric wide bandwidth future there is no place or part to plat by the old copper local loop technologies, and the mobile operators @ 3,4,5G will be further relegated to transporting < 1% of the total traffic of the future connected world. New species of WiFi and BlueTooth will emerge to dominate mobile connectivity and transport with the short range hops to a vastly increased number of fibre fed hot spots in room, on floor, in building, and on campus.
(Beyond simplistic thinking and models)
This lecture is one of a series ‘Grand Challenge Subjects’ designed to make students think beyond, and challenge, the status quo; to question what they have been taught and the established industry wisdoms; to look beyond the tech media and journal papers; to think, be original, and be creative in the widest sense. This all culminates in a design and build/project program spread over several weeks.
The notion that the IoT will see everything connecting via the internet using a wireless domain dominated by 5G is not only simplistic, it is fundamentally impossible. A moments thought and a few simple calculations reveal that there is not enough energy on the planet to power 50 - 250Bn or more IoT devices operating in such a mode. So how are we really going to design and engineer the IoT to become a workable proposition? Here are some clues:
3/4G: Carries <5% of all internet traffic; WiFi ~55%; Wired LANs @ 45%
Mobile Network coverage is sadly lacking @ <90% by geography
Mobile Device batteries and charging are major limitations
The internet consumes ~12% of all our energy
Mobile Devices consume ~ 1% and rising
Mobile Nets consume ~ 10%
None of the above takes into account the cost of raw materials, production, distribution, delivery, support, disposal and the ecological impact of civil engineering, equipments, and people.
During this lecture the following surprising conclusions quickly emerge:
Most IoT devices will talk to each other and never connect to the internet
IoT devices will require a range of bandwidths and not just low bit rates
The majority of IoT devices will communicate over very short distance
Our current wireless architectures are outmoded by the IoT
We will most likely need something beyond UWB
The power per IoT device has to be <<1mW
Security will demand auto-immunity
This then is the starting point; from here we can design and engineer solutions for an, as yet, unspecified and dimensioned IoT fit for this century.
It is not by accident that all these technologies appear to have come onto the scene at almost the same time. They are all driven, and or enabled, by the same hardware platforms based upon silicon with chip densities that now rival, or exceed, many biological lifeforms. Their ability to support increasingly complex software has seen AI and robotics become major industrial and medical tools. At the same time, Artificial Life is being applied in a more invisible manner, with Quantum Computing promising to change everything.
So why are these technologies so important? In short; they allow us to tackle and understand the most difficult problems facing our species. And all of these are complex, non-linear, with emergent properties that defy our mathematical and computing frameworks. Problems that are way beyond any biological brain include: protein folding; stem cell behaviours; drug interactions; the understanding of chemistry, biology, seismic activity, and weather systems, pollution and global warming; plus the creation of new materials, device, machine and building design.
Presented @ The University of Essex Innovation Centre for the IoD
It also turns out that they are essential for the creation of sustainable societies…
In 2015/16 a number of bodies/nations set about defining societies they would aspire to in the near future. Each vision document similarly described some idealistic, egalitarian, super-smart, human centred, state providing a near uniformity of living conditions, and opportunity. At the same time, each society would be free of adversity, with economic development guided by ecological and human need. Of course, economic growth was defined to continue in line with the past. Very nice, but a product of old linear thinking and modelling!
It is now approaching 2022 and in the past 5/7 years our base silicon technology has advanced to enjoy a >30 fold increase in computing power. Our top end mobile devices would now challenge a super computer of 1996/7 era, whist AI systems now pervade our homes, offices, vehicles, professions and all our on-line services. At the same time, information overload has started to rival some medical conditions!
All of this has also been compounded by two years of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions that have seen the normalisation of social isolation, limited travel, working and eduction from home, virtualised medicine and care, support services, shopping and meetings. In turn, this has resulted in empty offices, towns and cities. Concurently, climate change, global warming, pollution, finite resources, a stressed planetary system, and social unrest have suddenly become urgent issues. Against this backdrop it really seems to be time to revisit those Society 5.0 Visions and the limited linear thinking that contrived them!
In this presentation we examine many of the core parameters and assumptions to highlight existing, or soon to be realised, solutions and remedies. In doing so, a different picture of Society 5.0 emerges.
The biggest force for social change since the first industrial revolution has been adjusting to, and taking advantage of, the new and accelerating capabilities of our advancing technologies. And in our entire history, the dominant technology driver has been silicon-based electronics. It has prompted revolutions in Computing, Telecoms, Automation, AI, and Robotics that radically changed the human condition. Today, that same exponential revolution is accelerating us into Industry 4.0 and onto Industry 5.0.
The consequential transformation of medicine, industrial design and production, farming, food, processing, supply and demand has seen living standards improve and life expectancy widen. Many of our institutions have also seen tech-driven transformations in line with industry. If there has been a down-side to this progression, it has been our inability to transform the workforce ahead of new demands. Unemployment has persisted whilst reeducation and retraining have been on the back foot, whilst, the net creation of new jobs has always exceeded the demise of the old. As a result, leading countries in the first world now have labour shortages at all levels right across the spectrum.
Recently, COVID-19 has demonstrated that we have the technology and we can rapidly reorganise and change society if we have to. So in this presentation, we examine ‘the force functions’ and changes engineered to date, and then peer over the horizon to sample what is to come in terms of technologies and working practices…
Telecom customer services appear to be stuck in the early 20th Century with the telephone call the primary channel for service provision that can take days to affect. Compare that to Google, Amazon, IBM, Apple and other modern companies where customers control service provision by the minute or second.
Modem business is driven by the accumulation of customer data, but the Telecom Industry sees vast amounts of customer-related data dormant and untapped. As a result, many new opportunities are lost. For example, the behavior of people, devices, systems, and networks give the earliest indicators of potential security problems.
OTT operators exploit networks and make far greater profits than any other sector and this might be further amplified by the roll-out of 5G. But without a fundamental rethink of FTTP, 5G will fail to deliver sufficient coverage and the advertised data rates. This pending failure is already seeing alternative solutions from outside the industry along with the realization that most ‘things’ on the IoT will never connect to the internet!
It was scientifically established in the 1970s that we are stressing the planet beyond the point where it can naturally recover. Today we are using about 50% more natural resources than can be extracted sustainably. The long history of industrialisation and population growth is now seeing climate change, extreme weather, and perhaps it is human overpopulation and terraforming that is now giving way to pandemics as we increasingly challenge and stress ecosystems.
Stressed systems react and fail in a variety of ways, and there is increasing evidence that CV-19 might just be the surprising product of human abuse of nature. What we can be certain of is that without action we will see more unpleasant and unwelcome surprises.
The Green Agenda is our biggest hope, but much of it is driven by emotion rather than deep thought, evidence, and scientific analysis. For example; recycling is mostly a fallacy and we need to think again! In reality Industry 4.0 is the first major program vested in the basics of long term sustainability.
In this presentation we give a brief overview of what I4.0 brings to the party by a focus on one major sector that is ripe for transformation. A much broader and wider treatment has been presented at previous events and numerous additional, associative, and supportive slide sets in this series are available on the web site.
Since 1986 a global debate has raged on copper or fibre in the local loop, and despite all the evidence the copper heads have pursued a path of survival at any cost with outrageous claims of what they can deliver. With claims of ‘up-to’ download speeds and homes passed (not connected), and crosstalk induced asymmetry they have never delivered what was said on the tin. And worst, with great temerity they insist on dictating to customers as to the bandwidth they really need.
We have now (probably) reached a peak of the lunacy with FTTCabinet/Kerb and pole top G.Fast developers claiming speeds of 1,000Mbit/s delivered. They can no more deliver such speeds than 10Mbit/s unless it is over impractically short spans. You can deliver 10Gbit/s over 5m of twisted pair or 100Gbit/s over 1m, but it aint of much practical use. In contrast optical fibre can deliver 1, 10, 100 Gbit/s over 100km using <10% of the energy demanded by copper.
So in November 2015 I attended my 100th conference/seminar/meeting on the topic to explain that the world is now bifurcating into those with Gbit/s fibre in the local loop and those who are sticking with copper. City and community wide FTTH is rolling out in a frenzy of frustration with the incumbent telco copperheads who continue their futile quest to squeeze the last micro-gram out of their 150 year old technologies. Only fibre is green, only fibre is future proof, only fibre is economic, and only fibre can support future business, Cloud Computing, The IoT, Smart Cities, and the 3,4,5G infill needed into the future.
It is all obvious, but here we go again! Will the UK be a world leader or laggard, in the first division, or at the back of the pack? There is a lot at stake. The first to roll out FTTH was BY in 1990, but government ignorance saw the program closed down and since then the GDP has suffered with lost business and the emigration of young start ups. But all that is insignificant compared with what is to come!
The easiest and most sensible route out of the ‘gotcha’ is to let the companies do as they wish, but empower towns and cities to install dark fibre nets, and to provide assistive funding to villages and communities to DIY Fibre. This is happening by default, but it needs to be accelerated by a modest capital investment.
The internet will not scale to support >7Bn people and >50Bn things on line, but Clouds and Networks Without Infrastructure will, and they are neither singular nor static. Clouds are entirely dynamic and multi-modal with; public, private, personal, open, closed, government and commercial clouds that are fixed, mobile, long and short lived, permanent and transitory. In addition the new degrees of freedom that Clouds afford makes them inherently more secure and resilient than any network medium we have created before. But, not all clouds are equal, and neither is all data!
The era of IT Departments providing centralised networking and security is drawing to a rapid close in the same way that sitting in front of a PC in an office all day is becoming unworkable. So, it is time to rethink what has to change in order to adapt to rapidly growing BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) and BMOB (Be My Own Boss) cultures. At the same time, ecological, social, commercial and technology demands are pushing toward more and smaller devices, the tagging and tracking of everything, whilst using less material and energy. This all demands more wireless and new modes of networking demanding more optical fibre especially in the last mile where Point to Point systems will replace the outmoded BPON and GPON technologies of the past. In this symmetric wide bandwidth future there is no place or part to plat by the old copper local loop technologies, and the mobile operators @ 3,4,5G will be further relegated to transporting < 1% of the total traffic of the future connected world. New species of WiFi and BlueTooth will emerge to dominate mobile connectivity and transport with the short range hops to a vastly increased number of fibre fed hot spots in room, on floor, in building, and on campus.
(Beyond simplistic thinking and models)
This lecture is one of a series ‘Grand Challenge Subjects’ designed to make students think beyond, and challenge, the status quo; to question what they have been taught and the established industry wisdoms; to look beyond the tech media and journal papers; to think, be original, and be creative in the widest sense. This all culminates in a design and build/project program spread over several weeks.
The notion that the IoT will see everything connecting via the internet using a wireless domain dominated by 5G is not only simplistic, it is fundamentally impossible. A moments thought and a few simple calculations reveal that there is not enough energy on the planet to power 50 - 250Bn or more IoT devices operating in such a mode. So how are we really going to design and engineer the IoT to become a workable proposition? Here are some clues:
3/4G: Carries <5% of all internet traffic; WiFi ~55%; Wired LANs @ 45%
Mobile Network coverage is sadly lacking @ <90% by geography
Mobile Device batteries and charging are major limitations
The internet consumes ~12% of all our energy
Mobile Devices consume ~ 1% and rising
Mobile Nets consume ~ 10%
None of the above takes into account the cost of raw materials, production, distribution, delivery, support, disposal and the ecological impact of civil engineering, equipments, and people.
During this lecture the following surprising conclusions quickly emerge:
Most IoT devices will talk to each other and never connect to the internet
IoT devices will require a range of bandwidths and not just low bit rates
The majority of IoT devices will communicate over very short distance
Our current wireless architectures are outmoded by the IoT
We will most likely need something beyond UWB
The power per IoT device has to be <<1mW
Security will demand auto-immunity
This then is the starting point; from here we can design and engineer solutions for an, as yet, unspecified and dimensioned IoT fit for this century.
In most developed nations the proportion of old people is increasing along with their demands on healthcare services as they transit toward their eventual exit from this life. People no longer, live, work, retire and die in short order! Far more likely, they experience a series of complex, and often protracted, episodes an a concatenation of individual organ failure.
We therefore see a growing healthcare crisis across the First World with politicians resorting to very simple/similar ‘spend more, train more, and support more’ solutions. But this lacks any deep analysis. Reality is that no amount of money or people will cure this - it is a self sustaining loop of medical advance, improving survival rates, longer life spans, falling birth rates, fewer young people of sufficient talents, and reducing tax returns!
“This is an complex (non-linear) problem & there are no simple solutions”
Doing more with less, but far better, at a lower cost, by continually exploiting the latest technology is something already been pioneered/experienced by industry. It is the basic mechanism that now powers our progress - including many supporting healthcare technologies. This general principle is now a long overdue essential for healthcare professionals and patients; and absolutely necessary, if are to see any significant improvement in services.
Here we present examples of technologies that are available toady and most likely to be available in the next decade along with some necessary and key behavioural and responsibility changes.
ICTON 2019 France Keynote Presentation
Only 50 years ago network design was dominated by well defined, characterised, and understood services, but the launch of mobile services in the 1980s brought that era of certainty and stability to a rapid close. Not only where mobile users different in their habits, they discovered TXT! At almost the same time the internet and dial-up modems were introduced, and these compounded the situation further. Since that time network designers have been largely guessing as to what services they should accommodate and when.
The real culprits of chaos here are accelerating technologies and the new services they engender. For example: Facebook did not exist 15 years ago; WhatsApp 10 years ago; Snapchat 8 Years ago; whilst Video/Audio downloading and streaming were not mainstream just 3 years ago. And waiting in the wings we have the IoT and AI services. Needless to say most networks and network designers will continue to be wrong footed by the pace of change!
Predicting digital futures a sector at a time is relatively easy, but in a networked world driven by accelerating technologies this is insufficient. Sectors do not operate in isolation, they are connected, and as technology advances the boundaries morph, with whole industries overtaken and pushed aside. At the same time old jobs lose relevance and new skills are required, but in aggregate ever more people are employed. Today there is no country, no matter how big or rich, that has all the raw materials and people required to power its industries, healthcare systems, farming and food production, or indeed educational institutions. Insourcing, outsourcing, and globalisation are the result, and they are about to be augmented by global networking of facilities, skills and abilities
We have never known or understood so much about our world, and nor have we enjoyed the capabilities bestowed by modern technology. But keeping up to date, acquiring the right knowledge and skills is a growing challenge as ‘the world of the simple’ evaporates and complexity takes over.
“There are plenty of simple solutions to complex problems, but they are all wrong”
Preparing for change whilst coping with the status quo now presents many new challenges way beyond human ability and we have to partner with machines to aid our decisions. For organisations it is essential to find and employ the right people, and for people it is necessary to become ever more flexible and adaptable whilst continually acquiring pertinent capabilities.
“AI and robots are not going to push us aside, but they will change everything”
No man is an island, and neither is any country, company or institution. A digital and connected global interdependency now governs the fortunes of our species as technology empowers us at every level. In this presentation we highlight a small sample of the technologies on the horizon, the jobs they will destroy, enhance and create.
The document discusses the future of education and the need for reform. It argues that the current education system focuses too heavily on memorization and standardized testing, preparing students for outdated jobs. It advocates for a more adaptive, technology-enabled system that fosters creativity, problem-solving skills, and lifelong learning through personalized mentoring, collaboration, and discovery-based learning. The future will require educating students for a complex, fast-changing world where critical thinking is key to survival.
The world of work and employment has never changed so fast or been so complex, and it is showing no sign of slowing down. The raw technologies of communication and IT now see the simultaneous arrival of Mobile Working, BYOD, BMOB, Social Nets; Open Nets, Software, Apps and The Cloud plus Big Data. This is no accident - everything is now connected - and one technology enables/breeds another to satisfy seen and unseen demands!
Not only have we all become typists, computer operators, reprographic specialists, designers, photo takers and movie makers, editors and exceptional producers, our skill sets and abilities are about to be amplified further by artificial intelligence and robotics. Needless to say HR Departments are facing the challenge of existing workforces thinking and operating behind the wave, whilst the new entries are generally ahead of the game and prone to breaking all the rules!
At some time(s) all of us will lose control; feel anxiety, anger, exposure, vulnerability, threatened, stress, depression, uncertainty, be forgetful, or be of ‘two minds’ and so on. Our behaviors will most likely be modulated, and even strange in some way for some period. But all this is normal and a key component of our physiology of survival, and it is generally transient lasting minutes, hours, or at worst a day or two. When such conditions last for many day or weeks or become episodic, we label them mental illness.
The treatment of mental illness sufferers throughout history has not been a happy story spanning; the possession by spirits and demons, to incarceration, and institutionalization to become objects of fun, entertainment, derision, neglect, and disrespect. In the developed world a deal of progress and enlightenment (in terms of base understanding and treatment) has now been established, but there are still marked differences between the older and younger generations, sub-cultures, religions, and belief systems.
The medical profession has come a long way, and their understanding and science are still advancing, but expertise is in chronically short supply. And so there is a universal plight shared between physical and mental health with a gross shortage of skilled practitioners and physical facilities. In reality, this shortfall cannot be overcome by traditional health models - there are simply insufficient people available to be trained and qualified into all the health professions. Our only hope then; is to turn to new technologies with a progressive migration of patients from a ‘Do It all For Me’ (DIFM) to a ‘Do It For Yourself’ (DIY)_culture and expectation.
This DIFM to DIY transition is getting well established for the physical health sector, but it is still in its infancy for mental patients. Both sectors suffer the irrational/uneducated/unthinking/virulent detractors, but the reality is - we have a very limited number of choices - and we can only move within the framework of the possible. But: it is worth noting that the mental health sector is far more of a ‘minefield’ than the physical precursors. And so we should advance and experiment with great care and be sure to involve patients as a member of the team as opposed to being mere subjects and pseudo ‘lab rats’.
“tread softly, lest you step upon my dreams”
Pundits and experts alike are predicting the demise of Call and Contact Centres at the hand of rapidly advancing AI systems, and it is easy to see why. Google have recently demonstrated remarkable gains in conversational AI used as a booking engine. At the same time, IBM Watson has demonstrated an encyclopedic knowledge and a reasonably sophisticated ability to debate. But could they all be wrong? For sure, Call/Contact Centres are far from ideal, but they replace other (older) modes that were even worse and we should take care not to throw the baby out with the bathwater!
There was a time when Bell Boys would bring you a printed message from the electric telegraph; when a telephone operator would ask you for the number; when a typist would type your letter; when the Xerox operator would create your copies; when the computer operator would load and run your program; and when a secretary would organise your mail. Those days and those jobs are long gone, but at the time the concern was; what would these people do when they came redundant ? In reality all these people found employment as new jobs were created at the behest of new technologies. Web designers, CAD experts, IT specialists, data analysts, spread sheet drivers and many more replaced the old to the point of staffing shortages. Perhaps more poignantly; we are all now the bell boys, telephone operators, typists, printers, copiers, computer operators and secretaries - empowered by the self same technologies!
Today we see a global shortfall of some 200,000 Big data analysts complemented by similar needs for specialists and experts in Artificial Intelligence, Business Modelling, Decision Support Systems, 3D Printing, Genomics; Nano Tech and more. And there is a huge demand for people with the ‘hands on’ skills to design, build, repair and fix just about everything. The reality is that many of the people in these spheres derived their base skills through play. Wasting their young lives on a screen playing computer games, searching the web, hacking code, ‘building stuff’ and more turned out to be their springboard to employment and personal prosperity. But this presents companies and managers with many new challenges as they find it difficult to let go of the old and embrace the new.
Hierarchies and old management methods might just work for industries that are static and churning out the same product day after day, but for those facing rapid change and unpredictable demands, then agility and flexibility are ket, and that demands low flat structures with new and autonomous ways of working…
For millennia people have been travelling to stadia to watch and participate in spectacles of pure brutality and sport sponsored by kings, emperors, states, individuals. Today sport and other entertainment events have become a major global business sector with executive facilities, commercial sponsorship, broadcast and full media coverage. But, in many respects, the crowds and their experience has changed little. However, technology is impacting this situation and looks set to accelerate the rate of change.
In a similar manner to the airline business; the few pay around 80% of the costs, whilst the many fulfil the 20% or so. All the attention is lavished on the few and the many are neglected and remain a latent opportunity. The technologies of communication, networking, apps, Big and Meta Data can change all this by creating a ‘market of one’. Satisfying the needs of every individual and every group should be pursued as it leads to a world of new services and ‘pre-selling’.
The technological opportunities are endless with augmented reality able to furnish a view from every angle to mobile devices and wearables supported by real time details, data and statistics. Clouds and ‘networks without infrastructure’ can overcome the limitations of 3, 4, 5G and wifi systems that will never satisfy the need for growing customer connectivity and bandwidth. They can also help solve entry congestion and simultaneously support security and vending operations. Branded mobile devices with pre-loaded apps are also an obvious step towards the creation of ‘The Club’ identity and ‘belonging’ that goes way beyond the latest strip, scarves and hats etc with far more kudos than a gold card!
“On a grand scale this all involves Big Data, but for a ‘market of one’ it is the Meta Data that counts - that is where the opportunity and the $$$ reside”
All of this comes at a price of management and operational change! Embracing the new takes a positive mind and considerable energy in the face of day to day operations, but the workforce and the customer base is also changing fast with the old and old of mind being replaced by the young and young of mind. The tech savvy are on the move and making up an increasing proportion of society - and the trick is to leverage their knowledge and abilities at every level possible.
“Change is inevitable and accelerating - and you have to decide to be a driver or a victim”
In a rapidly changing world of growing demand and diminishing resources merely polishing our old technologies and making industrial processes ever more efficient only delays the onset of crisis and collapse - it does not solve the fundamental problem. Sustainable futures are inextricably linked to radical change and the creation of new technologies based on new materials, processing, shaping, use, reuse, repurposing and recycling at minimal loss.
So we look to the intersection of Artificial Intelligence, Nano and Bio-Technology to demonstrate advances are being made, and where the biggest societal changes will originate. We take a deep dive into the realm of human replacement and augmentation by machine, and the likely implications for individuals, groups, society, companies, institutions and governments.
Despite a security landscape now embracing: People; Companies; Governments; Devices; Networks; Services; Vehicles; Properties; LAND; SEA; AIR; SPACE; CYBER and INFORMATION, people and organisations still tend to see all this as someone else problem. In reality, it concerns all of us. Governments can no longer protect their citizens and nor can any company IT/Security Dept!
“In an ideal world: responses to Cyber and Terror would be automated and immediate”
The Dark Side has grown rich and powerful by investing in R&D and the latest technology; adopting distributed team working and a global market for talent and resources; and they are winning this war with an estimated $1.5Tn income in 2019. We have to adopt the same strategies to survive let alone win. Global sharing and cooperation are key along with people, staff, management, board, NED and Chairman education/training/involvement. At this time it is rare to find a ‘Cyber Seat’ on the main board of any organization, but it is a new and critical essential!
Until relatively recently our world was disconnected, stable, and slow to change. We saw linear innovation and commerce mostly resulting in well behaved and predictable outcomes. But all that has changed! Non-linearities introduced by networked technologies, people and organisations accelerated innovation, markets & change with emergent behaviours rapidly becoming the new norm. In turn, management, market & economic practices have seen adaptability adopted as a vital tool.
So rapid has been the rate of progress; no country, no matter how big, has all the materials, facilities, people, and innovation skills to meet demand. Our future therefore relies on the globalisation of everything including AI, robotics, production and innovation including human intellect and skills.
The precise definition and understanding of Industry 4.0, and how the vital elements are chosen varies widely by industry and country along with a deal of vagueness on the operational detail. This is particularly true of sustainability, new materials, security, IoT, recycling, logistics, integration, and interdependencies. In this short presentation, we highlight how many of the components are critically interdependent.
工业4.0的精确定义和理解以及关键要素的选择方式因行业和国家而异,并且在操作细节上含糊不清。 对于可持续性,新材料,安全性,物联网,回收,物流,集成和相互依存关系尤其如此。 在这个简短的演讲中,我们重点介绍了有多少个组件是相互依赖的。
在此处可以找到支持范围更广的I4.0演示/治疗方法:
A supporting and far broader I4.0 presentation/treatment can be found here:
https://www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane/why-industry-40
在这里有更多关于物联网的信息:
With more on the IoT here:
https://www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane/the-iot-for-real
还提供了支持书:
A supporting book is also available:
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030129521
No company, institution, government or agency can afford to contain and maintain all the resources they need in house. In a connected and fast changing world those needs are not static, they are dynamic and fast changing. So, outsourcing and insourcing, flexible working, BYOD, Social Networking, Open Access and Apps have become essential to flexibility and adaptability. But, perhaps more importantly ‘collaboration’ provides a prime element to success, that spans most sectors across the planet.
The various modes and tools of eCollaboration between people are well documented including: audio and video conferencing, connected white boards and meeting spaces are perhaps the most common. But there is far more when we include machines. People use and collaborate with machines at all levels, but increasingly the machines are autonomously collaborating.
“When things think, they want to link”
The inclusion of intelligence and smarts sees everything from our mobile devices to laptops, PCs, MainFrames and Super Computers starting to engage in cooperation and invisible conversations. The Cloud is amplifying this to our advantage with a growing range of apps backed up with distributed data, resources, networking, computing power and intelligences. Truth Engines and Intelligent Search and Find are also being developed to make available a range of new (easy to use) group and profession specific apps.
Most of us seem to spend more time locating information and the right people, than we devote to being creative and finding solutions. Our biggest challenge is to understand (in a shorter and shorter time frame), find the appropriate skill cells and get them all to come together as an effective team.
“The power to convene is both rare and coveted”
The old ways of working are falling by the wayside in the leading companies operating in the fastest moving sectors, whilst nothing much is happening (yet) at the other end of the market spectrum. But in this 21C the winners will be the global teams that connect, network and collaborate to maximise there creativity, and become the primary creators and solution finders.
Looking at a problem or data in isolation might have worked in a slow and disconnected past, but it is now a dangerous practice. The world is networked and Six Degrees of Separation have shrunk to 2 or 3 courtesy of the connectivity and networking of people, machines and things. Nothing is singular and isolated anymore, and establishing causality, future implications and likely outcomes is no longer simple or certain. Few systems can be treated as a Black Box with an input and an output related by some stable and linear function. Multiple inputs and outputs and stochastic transfer functions rule, and the resulting combinatorics confound us to the point where uncertainty is now the ‘uncomfortable’ norm!
Data mining is about drilling down to the fine detail in relatively small and contained data sets. A PC, spread sheets, structured data and simple analysis tools are the hallmarks of this domain. But Big Data is about the Big Picture, relationships, paths, and links which are way beyond the PC and simple tools. We are talking huge, sophisticated, fast evolving, and very specialised. It is already challenging many long held truths, discovering new ones, whilst revealing previously unknown relationships. The biggest problem is that we lack ‘Big Understanding’ or even the capacity to analyse and model situations to the point where clarity emerges. Our most powerful tools turn out to be computer modelling, simulation, Artificial Intelligence, and Visualisation.
Day on day our machine dependency grows as we tackle the vital Green, Social, Health, Science and Industry issues. We need the necessary wisdoms, we need the truths in order to make wise decisions that will impact future generations. So it is no accident that our Symbiosis with machines grows in hand with our abilities, but Big Data is no panacea, it is one of a raft of powerful new tools and should be seen so in our mission to gain better understanding and greater wisdom.
Presented @ The AI Summit, Olympia, London, 29 Nov 2017
In a world that is getting more connected and complex by the day, where we need to produce and distribute more at a lower and lower cost to the planet to achieve sustainability, we see the Japanese embracing robotics and AI with great confidence. They see both as part of the solution to many of their societal, care and industrial problems and limitations, and they assign some level of life quality to both.
Meanwhile, throughout the West a debate rages on the dangers, real and imaginary. These are mainly based on fear created by ignorance, the Hollywood Effect (eg Terminator and AI) bolstered by celebrities issuing warnings whilst that never having designed or operated an AI system!
So, what is the reality? Are there any real dangers? Of course, there always are with all new technologies, but as ever, engineers and scientists are continually reviewing what can and should be done. The reality is; the AI cat is well and truly out of the bag! It has already seen widespread deployments across manufacturing industry, transport, logistics, and of course the medical and care sectors. There is no going back, we are now totally dependant!
To date all of our AI has been ‘Narrow’ and simple; very limited and generally addressing a singular or single class of problem. We have IBM Watson in the lead with its breadth of analysis and diagnostic abilities, whilst Google AlphaGO is in the lead in the way it is able to learn games and processes sans human help. But in the next two phases leading to General (or Wide) AI we are heading toward true sentience, self awareness, and full autonomy of access and action.
This general trajectory is of some concern and the focus of this presentation. So, we examine the characteristics of each phase and the techniques that could be and are being developed and deployed to avert the much heralded ‘Destruction of the Human Race’ to come. In reality, military hunter killer robots are already being developed with some trials and deployments underway. As ever, AI and Robotic technologies have a huge upside, but potentially with a bigger that usual downside!
In reality, the real problem, threat and risks have little to do with the technologies, they are almost entirely in the hands of their human masters!
A Green Agenda cannot be fully realised by polishing our established industries and processes, or indeed minimalistic changes to manufacturing, production, and supply. We have to be far more holistic and radical! New materials and processes will get us part way there, but we also need the greater data oversight, analysis and management, provided by a fully deployed Internet of Things (IoT). In turn, this will require the application of Artificial Intelligence, Computer Modelling and War Gaming to provide the necessary guidance and decision support for machines and people.
Energy and material waste are definitely key components, but so are hyper-efficient Re-Use, Re-Purposing, and Re-Cycling with maximal material recovery at very low loss. And so, access to and analysis of, the Big and Small Data collected by networks and the IoT components is vital. For obvious reasons of unrealisable energy demands and network node densities, mobile networks and network technologies (such as 5G) cannot support such a vision and we can expect to see a migration to new network regimes where our machines, appliances, devices, vehicles, sea going containers, pallets, boxes, products and components communicate directly over very short distances in preference to using 3/4/5G and WiFi networks.
Many IoT components include sensors and access to information about their hosts; and this is vital to performance monitoring, timely maintenance and repair. Real time location, production, supply, use and ownership information will change the way we design, manufacture, supply and meet the needs of society at all levels from health, welfare, employment, education, industry, commerce, defence, and government. Many elements exist today, and more are under development, and in this presentation we bring together these core components.
For millennia people worked in relative stability with industries sustained by very little change for hundreds of years. Even the industrial revolution saw a high degree of stability after the initial disruption. Mining, foundries, railways, shipping, mills etc employed thousands for a lifetime. This saw the creation of new towns and cities dedicated to major industries and gave rise to the illusion of job security - a notion that persists in many political minds today.
In <50 years that heritage has been swept away by technology and globalisation. The future now belongs to the mobile, the connected, the networkers and the most adaptable. A lifetimes employment in one job in one sector living in one place is rare. Even mining and agriculture are increasingly automated to require fewer people with less muscle and more tech skills. And while the media feature the destruction of jobs and a total takeover by the machines, the empirical evidence shows a growing number of vacancies for the skilled and those educated to adapt to the new needs of an age of robotics and artificial intelligence.
Everybody, every society and country, now face significant challenges in the need to change and adapt to technological advance….
“ Exactly like Mother Nature and biological evolution, technological evolution shows no compassion and no care - it really is about the survival of the most adaptable”
Data mining and analysis has been dominated by the big looking at the small. Businesses, institutions and governments examine our habits with an eye to commercial opportunities, welfare, and security. However, big data is migrating analysis into the arena of networking and association to enhance services: advertising, ‘pre-selling,’ healthcare, security and tax avoidance reduction. But this leaves the critical arena of Small Data unaddressed - the small looking at the small - individuals and things examining and exploiting their own data.
Here we consider a future of ubiquitous tagging, sensors, measuring and networked monitoring powered by the IoT. Key conclusions see many devices talking to each other at close range with little (or no) need of internet connection, and more network connections generated between things than those on the net.
Throughout our education and life we are mostly given a ‘soda-straw’ view of Maths, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, HealthCare, Business and Commerce that conditions us to ‘one concept at a time’ thinking. This is rife in Government and Politics, Industry and Health, and it has been extremely powerful in a now past slow paced and disconnected world. In fact, the speciation of disciplines, topics and problems has largely been responsible for the acceleration and prominence of human progress.
However; in a connected/networked, highly mobile, and tech driven world this simple and narrow minded view is insufficient and dangerous. In common parlance we refer to ‘unintended consequences’ whilst in complex system theory would use the term ‘emergent behaviours’. In brief; education, health, crime, productivity, GDP creation, social cohesion and stability cannot be considered independent variables/properties. They are all related and interdependent. For example; when politicians decide to starve the education system of funds for very young children the impact shows up in health, crime and the economy some 10 - 30 years later!
By analogy; all of this is true of our technologies, industries, lives, and the prospect of sustainable societies. Robots, AI, AL, and Quantum Computing do not stand alone in isolation, they have complementary roles. In this Public Lecture we devote an hour to thinking more holistically what these technologies bring to the party in the context of industry, health, society, sustainable societies and global warming. We then devote a further hour to discussion and debate.
In the context of Global Warming we make the following overriding observations:
“Panic is a poor substitute for thinking”
“Tech is the only exponential capability we enjoy”
“Technology is never a threat, but humans always are”
“Uncertainty always prescribes the precautionary principle”
IoT growth forecasts currently tend to span 30 – 60 Bn ‘Things’ by 2030. However, this ignores the central IoT role in realising sustainable societies where raw materials and component use have to see very high levels of reuse, repurposing, and recycling. In such a world almost everything we possess and use will have to be tagged and be electronically addressable as a part of the IoT. Such a need immediately sees growth estimates of 2Tn or more over the span of Industry 4 and 5. On the basis of energy demands alone, it is inconceivable that the technologies of BlueTooth, WiFi, 4, 5, and 6G could support such demand, and nor are the signaling and security protocols viable on such a scale.
The evolution of the IoT will therefore most likely see a new form of dynamic network requiring new lightweight protocols employing very little signal processing, together with very low energy wireless technologies (in the micro-Watt range) operating over extremely short distances (~10m). This need might be best satisfied by a new form of ‘Zero Infrastructure Mesh Networks’ that engage in active resource sharing, lossy probabilistic routing, and cyber security realised through an integrated ‘auto-immunity’ system. Ultimately, we might also envisage data amalgamation at key nodes that have a direct connection into the internet along with an additional layer of cyber checks and protection.
We justify the above assertions by illustrating the energy and network limitations of today’s 5G networks and those already obvious in current 6G proposals. We then go on to detail how a suitable IoT MeshNet might be configured and realised, along with a few solutions and emergent outcomes on the way.
The mobile industry has always been prone to hype and hyperbole, but they have more than excelled themselves with the promise of imminent 5G roll out. Apparently 5G will dominate the IoT, Smart Cities, Robotic Plants, Autonomous Vehicles, Global Logistics, Remote Surgery, AR, VR and everything else…. Of course there are elements of the ‘likely outcomes’ here, but there is plenty of reason to consider 5G to be the ultimate Swiss Army Knife - capable of doing almost anything, but only doing a few tasks really well!
Reality is that the highest bandwidths forecast are only likely to be achieved at relatively short distances, with high power consumption and relatively short battery life between charges - ie much shorter than 3 or 4G. At the same time the nee for 10 - 100x the number of 4G masts and towers renders the old mobile deployment models impractical. An obvious solution is the deployment of nodes for home and office at FTTP terminal points to provide comprehensive network coverage/geographic infill.
Perhaps the prime quality of 5G, over and above 3 and 4G, that is seldom featured is that of very low latency which is an essential for remote robotics, surgery, medicine, AR and VR applications.
So in this presentation we consider all of theses aspects (and more) in the context of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) and the move toward sustainable societies in order to present a degree of clarification as to which technologies will most likely applied where. This sees the Not as the nervous system of the planet with more thing connecting at close range off - net, with some consolidation and analysis at node before upload into the IoT.
In short; there is not enough energy available for all things to be connected by 5G technology, and nor is it necessary, the available alternatives for very short range - low energy connectivity are not only viable they are more attractive by size, form factor, cost, and operational modes, We therefor predict a dynamic mixed technology future…
In most developed nations the proportion of old people is increasing along with their demands on healthcare services as they transit toward their eventual exit from this life. People no longer, live, work, retire and die in short order! Far more likely, they experience a series of complex, and often protracted, episodes an a concatenation of individual organ failure.
We therefore see a growing healthcare crisis across the First World with politicians resorting to very simple/similar ‘spend more, train more, and support more’ solutions. But this lacks any deep analysis. Reality is that no amount of money or people will cure this - it is a self sustaining loop of medical advance, improving survival rates, longer life spans, falling birth rates, fewer young people of sufficient talents, and reducing tax returns!
“This is an complex (non-linear) problem & there are no simple solutions”
Doing more with less, but far better, at a lower cost, by continually exploiting the latest technology is something already been pioneered/experienced by industry. It is the basic mechanism that now powers our progress - including many supporting healthcare technologies. This general principle is now a long overdue essential for healthcare professionals and patients; and absolutely necessary, if are to see any significant improvement in services.
Here we present examples of technologies that are available toady and most likely to be available in the next decade along with some necessary and key behavioural and responsibility changes.
ICTON 2019 France Keynote Presentation
Only 50 years ago network design was dominated by well defined, characterised, and understood services, but the launch of mobile services in the 1980s brought that era of certainty and stability to a rapid close. Not only where mobile users different in their habits, they discovered TXT! At almost the same time the internet and dial-up modems were introduced, and these compounded the situation further. Since that time network designers have been largely guessing as to what services they should accommodate and when.
The real culprits of chaos here are accelerating technologies and the new services they engender. For example: Facebook did not exist 15 years ago; WhatsApp 10 years ago; Snapchat 8 Years ago; whilst Video/Audio downloading and streaming were not mainstream just 3 years ago. And waiting in the wings we have the IoT and AI services. Needless to say most networks and network designers will continue to be wrong footed by the pace of change!
Predicting digital futures a sector at a time is relatively easy, but in a networked world driven by accelerating technologies this is insufficient. Sectors do not operate in isolation, they are connected, and as technology advances the boundaries morph, with whole industries overtaken and pushed aside. At the same time old jobs lose relevance and new skills are required, but in aggregate ever more people are employed. Today there is no country, no matter how big or rich, that has all the raw materials and people required to power its industries, healthcare systems, farming and food production, or indeed educational institutions. Insourcing, outsourcing, and globalisation are the result, and they are about to be augmented by global networking of facilities, skills and abilities
We have never known or understood so much about our world, and nor have we enjoyed the capabilities bestowed by modern technology. But keeping up to date, acquiring the right knowledge and skills is a growing challenge as ‘the world of the simple’ evaporates and complexity takes over.
“There are plenty of simple solutions to complex problems, but they are all wrong”
Preparing for change whilst coping with the status quo now presents many new challenges way beyond human ability and we have to partner with machines to aid our decisions. For organisations it is essential to find and employ the right people, and for people it is necessary to become ever more flexible and adaptable whilst continually acquiring pertinent capabilities.
“AI and robots are not going to push us aside, but they will change everything”
No man is an island, and neither is any country, company or institution. A digital and connected global interdependency now governs the fortunes of our species as technology empowers us at every level. In this presentation we highlight a small sample of the technologies on the horizon, the jobs they will destroy, enhance and create.
The document discusses the future of education and the need for reform. It argues that the current education system focuses too heavily on memorization and standardized testing, preparing students for outdated jobs. It advocates for a more adaptive, technology-enabled system that fosters creativity, problem-solving skills, and lifelong learning through personalized mentoring, collaboration, and discovery-based learning. The future will require educating students for a complex, fast-changing world where critical thinking is key to survival.
The world of work and employment has never changed so fast or been so complex, and it is showing no sign of slowing down. The raw technologies of communication and IT now see the simultaneous arrival of Mobile Working, BYOD, BMOB, Social Nets; Open Nets, Software, Apps and The Cloud plus Big Data. This is no accident - everything is now connected - and one technology enables/breeds another to satisfy seen and unseen demands!
Not only have we all become typists, computer operators, reprographic specialists, designers, photo takers and movie makers, editors and exceptional producers, our skill sets and abilities are about to be amplified further by artificial intelligence and robotics. Needless to say HR Departments are facing the challenge of existing workforces thinking and operating behind the wave, whilst the new entries are generally ahead of the game and prone to breaking all the rules!
At some time(s) all of us will lose control; feel anxiety, anger, exposure, vulnerability, threatened, stress, depression, uncertainty, be forgetful, or be of ‘two minds’ and so on. Our behaviors will most likely be modulated, and even strange in some way for some period. But all this is normal and a key component of our physiology of survival, and it is generally transient lasting minutes, hours, or at worst a day or two. When such conditions last for many day or weeks or become episodic, we label them mental illness.
The treatment of mental illness sufferers throughout history has not been a happy story spanning; the possession by spirits and demons, to incarceration, and institutionalization to become objects of fun, entertainment, derision, neglect, and disrespect. In the developed world a deal of progress and enlightenment (in terms of base understanding and treatment) has now been established, but there are still marked differences between the older and younger generations, sub-cultures, religions, and belief systems.
The medical profession has come a long way, and their understanding and science are still advancing, but expertise is in chronically short supply. And so there is a universal plight shared between physical and mental health with a gross shortage of skilled practitioners and physical facilities. In reality, this shortfall cannot be overcome by traditional health models - there are simply insufficient people available to be trained and qualified into all the health professions. Our only hope then; is to turn to new technologies with a progressive migration of patients from a ‘Do It all For Me’ (DIFM) to a ‘Do It For Yourself’ (DIY)_culture and expectation.
This DIFM to DIY transition is getting well established for the physical health sector, but it is still in its infancy for mental patients. Both sectors suffer the irrational/uneducated/unthinking/virulent detractors, but the reality is - we have a very limited number of choices - and we can only move within the framework of the possible. But: it is worth noting that the mental health sector is far more of a ‘minefield’ than the physical precursors. And so we should advance and experiment with great care and be sure to involve patients as a member of the team as opposed to being mere subjects and pseudo ‘lab rats’.
“tread softly, lest you step upon my dreams”
Pundits and experts alike are predicting the demise of Call and Contact Centres at the hand of rapidly advancing AI systems, and it is easy to see why. Google have recently demonstrated remarkable gains in conversational AI used as a booking engine. At the same time, IBM Watson has demonstrated an encyclopedic knowledge and a reasonably sophisticated ability to debate. But could they all be wrong? For sure, Call/Contact Centres are far from ideal, but they replace other (older) modes that were even worse and we should take care not to throw the baby out with the bathwater!
There was a time when Bell Boys would bring you a printed message from the electric telegraph; when a telephone operator would ask you for the number; when a typist would type your letter; when the Xerox operator would create your copies; when the computer operator would load and run your program; and when a secretary would organise your mail. Those days and those jobs are long gone, but at the time the concern was; what would these people do when they came redundant ? In reality all these people found employment as new jobs were created at the behest of new technologies. Web designers, CAD experts, IT specialists, data analysts, spread sheet drivers and many more replaced the old to the point of staffing shortages. Perhaps more poignantly; we are all now the bell boys, telephone operators, typists, printers, copiers, computer operators and secretaries - empowered by the self same technologies!
Today we see a global shortfall of some 200,000 Big data analysts complemented by similar needs for specialists and experts in Artificial Intelligence, Business Modelling, Decision Support Systems, 3D Printing, Genomics; Nano Tech and more. And there is a huge demand for people with the ‘hands on’ skills to design, build, repair and fix just about everything. The reality is that many of the people in these spheres derived their base skills through play. Wasting their young lives on a screen playing computer games, searching the web, hacking code, ‘building stuff’ and more turned out to be their springboard to employment and personal prosperity. But this presents companies and managers with many new challenges as they find it difficult to let go of the old and embrace the new.
Hierarchies and old management methods might just work for industries that are static and churning out the same product day after day, but for those facing rapid change and unpredictable demands, then agility and flexibility are ket, and that demands low flat structures with new and autonomous ways of working…
For millennia people have been travelling to stadia to watch and participate in spectacles of pure brutality and sport sponsored by kings, emperors, states, individuals. Today sport and other entertainment events have become a major global business sector with executive facilities, commercial sponsorship, broadcast and full media coverage. But, in many respects, the crowds and their experience has changed little. However, technology is impacting this situation and looks set to accelerate the rate of change.
In a similar manner to the airline business; the few pay around 80% of the costs, whilst the many fulfil the 20% or so. All the attention is lavished on the few and the many are neglected and remain a latent opportunity. The technologies of communication, networking, apps, Big and Meta Data can change all this by creating a ‘market of one’. Satisfying the needs of every individual and every group should be pursued as it leads to a world of new services and ‘pre-selling’.
The technological opportunities are endless with augmented reality able to furnish a view from every angle to mobile devices and wearables supported by real time details, data and statistics. Clouds and ‘networks without infrastructure’ can overcome the limitations of 3, 4, 5G and wifi systems that will never satisfy the need for growing customer connectivity and bandwidth. They can also help solve entry congestion and simultaneously support security and vending operations. Branded mobile devices with pre-loaded apps are also an obvious step towards the creation of ‘The Club’ identity and ‘belonging’ that goes way beyond the latest strip, scarves and hats etc with far more kudos than a gold card!
“On a grand scale this all involves Big Data, but for a ‘market of one’ it is the Meta Data that counts - that is where the opportunity and the $$$ reside”
All of this comes at a price of management and operational change! Embracing the new takes a positive mind and considerable energy in the face of day to day operations, but the workforce and the customer base is also changing fast with the old and old of mind being replaced by the young and young of mind. The tech savvy are on the move and making up an increasing proportion of society - and the trick is to leverage their knowledge and abilities at every level possible.
“Change is inevitable and accelerating - and you have to decide to be a driver or a victim”
In a rapidly changing world of growing demand and diminishing resources merely polishing our old technologies and making industrial processes ever more efficient only delays the onset of crisis and collapse - it does not solve the fundamental problem. Sustainable futures are inextricably linked to radical change and the creation of new technologies based on new materials, processing, shaping, use, reuse, repurposing and recycling at minimal loss.
So we look to the intersection of Artificial Intelligence, Nano and Bio-Technology to demonstrate advances are being made, and where the biggest societal changes will originate. We take a deep dive into the realm of human replacement and augmentation by machine, and the likely implications for individuals, groups, society, companies, institutions and governments.
Despite a security landscape now embracing: People; Companies; Governments; Devices; Networks; Services; Vehicles; Properties; LAND; SEA; AIR; SPACE; CYBER and INFORMATION, people and organisations still tend to see all this as someone else problem. In reality, it concerns all of us. Governments can no longer protect their citizens and nor can any company IT/Security Dept!
“In an ideal world: responses to Cyber and Terror would be automated and immediate”
The Dark Side has grown rich and powerful by investing in R&D and the latest technology; adopting distributed team working and a global market for talent and resources; and they are winning this war with an estimated $1.5Tn income in 2019. We have to adopt the same strategies to survive let alone win. Global sharing and cooperation are key along with people, staff, management, board, NED and Chairman education/training/involvement. At this time it is rare to find a ‘Cyber Seat’ on the main board of any organization, but it is a new and critical essential!
Until relatively recently our world was disconnected, stable, and slow to change. We saw linear innovation and commerce mostly resulting in well behaved and predictable outcomes. But all that has changed! Non-linearities introduced by networked technologies, people and organisations accelerated innovation, markets & change with emergent behaviours rapidly becoming the new norm. In turn, management, market & economic practices have seen adaptability adopted as a vital tool.
So rapid has been the rate of progress; no country, no matter how big, has all the materials, facilities, people, and innovation skills to meet demand. Our future therefore relies on the globalisation of everything including AI, robotics, production and innovation including human intellect and skills.
The precise definition and understanding of Industry 4.0, and how the vital elements are chosen varies widely by industry and country along with a deal of vagueness on the operational detail. This is particularly true of sustainability, new materials, security, IoT, recycling, logistics, integration, and interdependencies. In this short presentation, we highlight how many of the components are critically interdependent.
工业4.0的精确定义和理解以及关键要素的选择方式因行业和国家而异,并且在操作细节上含糊不清。 对于可持续性,新材料,安全性,物联网,回收,物流,集成和相互依存关系尤其如此。 在这个简短的演讲中,我们重点介绍了有多少个组件是相互依赖的。
在此处可以找到支持范围更广的I4.0演示/治疗方法:
A supporting and far broader I4.0 presentation/treatment can be found here:
https://www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane/why-industry-40
在这里有更多关于物联网的信息:
With more on the IoT here:
https://www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane/the-iot-for-real
还提供了支持书:
A supporting book is also available:
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030129521
No company, institution, government or agency can afford to contain and maintain all the resources they need in house. In a connected and fast changing world those needs are not static, they are dynamic and fast changing. So, outsourcing and insourcing, flexible working, BYOD, Social Networking, Open Access and Apps have become essential to flexibility and adaptability. But, perhaps more importantly ‘collaboration’ provides a prime element to success, that spans most sectors across the planet.
The various modes and tools of eCollaboration between people are well documented including: audio and video conferencing, connected white boards and meeting spaces are perhaps the most common. But there is far more when we include machines. People use and collaborate with machines at all levels, but increasingly the machines are autonomously collaborating.
“When things think, they want to link”
The inclusion of intelligence and smarts sees everything from our mobile devices to laptops, PCs, MainFrames and Super Computers starting to engage in cooperation and invisible conversations. The Cloud is amplifying this to our advantage with a growing range of apps backed up with distributed data, resources, networking, computing power and intelligences. Truth Engines and Intelligent Search and Find are also being developed to make available a range of new (easy to use) group and profession specific apps.
Most of us seem to spend more time locating information and the right people, than we devote to being creative and finding solutions. Our biggest challenge is to understand (in a shorter and shorter time frame), find the appropriate skill cells and get them all to come together as an effective team.
“The power to convene is both rare and coveted”
The old ways of working are falling by the wayside in the leading companies operating in the fastest moving sectors, whilst nothing much is happening (yet) at the other end of the market spectrum. But in this 21C the winners will be the global teams that connect, network and collaborate to maximise there creativity, and become the primary creators and solution finders.
Looking at a problem or data in isolation might have worked in a slow and disconnected past, but it is now a dangerous practice. The world is networked and Six Degrees of Separation have shrunk to 2 or 3 courtesy of the connectivity and networking of people, machines and things. Nothing is singular and isolated anymore, and establishing causality, future implications and likely outcomes is no longer simple or certain. Few systems can be treated as a Black Box with an input and an output related by some stable and linear function. Multiple inputs and outputs and stochastic transfer functions rule, and the resulting combinatorics confound us to the point where uncertainty is now the ‘uncomfortable’ norm!
Data mining is about drilling down to the fine detail in relatively small and contained data sets. A PC, spread sheets, structured data and simple analysis tools are the hallmarks of this domain. But Big Data is about the Big Picture, relationships, paths, and links which are way beyond the PC and simple tools. We are talking huge, sophisticated, fast evolving, and very specialised. It is already challenging many long held truths, discovering new ones, whilst revealing previously unknown relationships. The biggest problem is that we lack ‘Big Understanding’ or even the capacity to analyse and model situations to the point where clarity emerges. Our most powerful tools turn out to be computer modelling, simulation, Artificial Intelligence, and Visualisation.
Day on day our machine dependency grows as we tackle the vital Green, Social, Health, Science and Industry issues. We need the necessary wisdoms, we need the truths in order to make wise decisions that will impact future generations. So it is no accident that our Symbiosis with machines grows in hand with our abilities, but Big Data is no panacea, it is one of a raft of powerful new tools and should be seen so in our mission to gain better understanding and greater wisdom.
Presented @ The AI Summit, Olympia, London, 29 Nov 2017
In a world that is getting more connected and complex by the day, where we need to produce and distribute more at a lower and lower cost to the planet to achieve sustainability, we see the Japanese embracing robotics and AI with great confidence. They see both as part of the solution to many of their societal, care and industrial problems and limitations, and they assign some level of life quality to both.
Meanwhile, throughout the West a debate rages on the dangers, real and imaginary. These are mainly based on fear created by ignorance, the Hollywood Effect (eg Terminator and AI) bolstered by celebrities issuing warnings whilst that never having designed or operated an AI system!
So, what is the reality? Are there any real dangers? Of course, there always are with all new technologies, but as ever, engineers and scientists are continually reviewing what can and should be done. The reality is; the AI cat is well and truly out of the bag! It has already seen widespread deployments across manufacturing industry, transport, logistics, and of course the medical and care sectors. There is no going back, we are now totally dependant!
To date all of our AI has been ‘Narrow’ and simple; very limited and generally addressing a singular or single class of problem. We have IBM Watson in the lead with its breadth of analysis and diagnostic abilities, whilst Google AlphaGO is in the lead in the way it is able to learn games and processes sans human help. But in the next two phases leading to General (or Wide) AI we are heading toward true sentience, self awareness, and full autonomy of access and action.
This general trajectory is of some concern and the focus of this presentation. So, we examine the characteristics of each phase and the techniques that could be and are being developed and deployed to avert the much heralded ‘Destruction of the Human Race’ to come. In reality, military hunter killer robots are already being developed with some trials and deployments underway. As ever, AI and Robotic technologies have a huge upside, but potentially with a bigger that usual downside!
In reality, the real problem, threat and risks have little to do with the technologies, they are almost entirely in the hands of their human masters!
A Green Agenda cannot be fully realised by polishing our established industries and processes, or indeed minimalistic changes to manufacturing, production, and supply. We have to be far more holistic and radical! New materials and processes will get us part way there, but we also need the greater data oversight, analysis and management, provided by a fully deployed Internet of Things (IoT). In turn, this will require the application of Artificial Intelligence, Computer Modelling and War Gaming to provide the necessary guidance and decision support for machines and people.
Energy and material waste are definitely key components, but so are hyper-efficient Re-Use, Re-Purposing, and Re-Cycling with maximal material recovery at very low loss. And so, access to and analysis of, the Big and Small Data collected by networks and the IoT components is vital. For obvious reasons of unrealisable energy demands and network node densities, mobile networks and network technologies (such as 5G) cannot support such a vision and we can expect to see a migration to new network regimes where our machines, appliances, devices, vehicles, sea going containers, pallets, boxes, products and components communicate directly over very short distances in preference to using 3/4/5G and WiFi networks.
Many IoT components include sensors and access to information about their hosts; and this is vital to performance monitoring, timely maintenance and repair. Real time location, production, supply, use and ownership information will change the way we design, manufacture, supply and meet the needs of society at all levels from health, welfare, employment, education, industry, commerce, defence, and government. Many elements exist today, and more are under development, and in this presentation we bring together these core components.
For millennia people worked in relative stability with industries sustained by very little change for hundreds of years. Even the industrial revolution saw a high degree of stability after the initial disruption. Mining, foundries, railways, shipping, mills etc employed thousands for a lifetime. This saw the creation of new towns and cities dedicated to major industries and gave rise to the illusion of job security - a notion that persists in many political minds today.
In <50 years that heritage has been swept away by technology and globalisation. The future now belongs to the mobile, the connected, the networkers and the most adaptable. A lifetimes employment in one job in one sector living in one place is rare. Even mining and agriculture are increasingly automated to require fewer people with less muscle and more tech skills. And while the media feature the destruction of jobs and a total takeover by the machines, the empirical evidence shows a growing number of vacancies for the skilled and those educated to adapt to the new needs of an age of robotics and artificial intelligence.
Everybody, every society and country, now face significant challenges in the need to change and adapt to technological advance….
“ Exactly like Mother Nature and biological evolution, technological evolution shows no compassion and no care - it really is about the survival of the most adaptable”
Data mining and analysis has been dominated by the big looking at the small. Businesses, institutions and governments examine our habits with an eye to commercial opportunities, welfare, and security. However, big data is migrating analysis into the arena of networking and association to enhance services: advertising, ‘pre-selling,’ healthcare, security and tax avoidance reduction. But this leaves the critical arena of Small Data unaddressed - the small looking at the small - individuals and things examining and exploiting their own data.
Here we consider a future of ubiquitous tagging, sensors, measuring and networked monitoring powered by the IoT. Key conclusions see many devices talking to each other at close range with little (or no) need of internet connection, and more network connections generated between things than those on the net.
Throughout our education and life we are mostly given a ‘soda-straw’ view of Maths, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, HealthCare, Business and Commerce that conditions us to ‘one concept at a time’ thinking. This is rife in Government and Politics, Industry and Health, and it has been extremely powerful in a now past slow paced and disconnected world. In fact, the speciation of disciplines, topics and problems has largely been responsible for the acceleration and prominence of human progress.
However; in a connected/networked, highly mobile, and tech driven world this simple and narrow minded view is insufficient and dangerous. In common parlance we refer to ‘unintended consequences’ whilst in complex system theory would use the term ‘emergent behaviours’. In brief; education, health, crime, productivity, GDP creation, social cohesion and stability cannot be considered independent variables/properties. They are all related and interdependent. For example; when politicians decide to starve the education system of funds for very young children the impact shows up in health, crime and the economy some 10 - 30 years later!
By analogy; all of this is true of our technologies, industries, lives, and the prospect of sustainable societies. Robots, AI, AL, and Quantum Computing do not stand alone in isolation, they have complementary roles. In this Public Lecture we devote an hour to thinking more holistically what these technologies bring to the party in the context of industry, health, society, sustainable societies and global warming. We then devote a further hour to discussion and debate.
In the context of Global Warming we make the following overriding observations:
“Panic is a poor substitute for thinking”
“Tech is the only exponential capability we enjoy”
“Technology is never a threat, but humans always are”
“Uncertainty always prescribes the precautionary principle”
IoT growth forecasts currently tend to span 30 – 60 Bn ‘Things’ by 2030. However, this ignores the central IoT role in realising sustainable societies where raw materials and component use have to see very high levels of reuse, repurposing, and recycling. In such a world almost everything we possess and use will have to be tagged and be electronically addressable as a part of the IoT. Such a need immediately sees growth estimates of 2Tn or more over the span of Industry 4 and 5. On the basis of energy demands alone, it is inconceivable that the technologies of BlueTooth, WiFi, 4, 5, and 6G could support such demand, and nor are the signaling and security protocols viable on such a scale.
The evolution of the IoT will therefore most likely see a new form of dynamic network requiring new lightweight protocols employing very little signal processing, together with very low energy wireless technologies (in the micro-Watt range) operating over extremely short distances (~10m). This need might be best satisfied by a new form of ‘Zero Infrastructure Mesh Networks’ that engage in active resource sharing, lossy probabilistic routing, and cyber security realised through an integrated ‘auto-immunity’ system. Ultimately, we might also envisage data amalgamation at key nodes that have a direct connection into the internet along with an additional layer of cyber checks and protection.
We justify the above assertions by illustrating the energy and network limitations of today’s 5G networks and those already obvious in current 6G proposals. We then go on to detail how a suitable IoT MeshNet might be configured and realised, along with a few solutions and emergent outcomes on the way.
The mobile industry has always been prone to hype and hyperbole, but they have more than excelled themselves with the promise of imminent 5G roll out. Apparently 5G will dominate the IoT, Smart Cities, Robotic Plants, Autonomous Vehicles, Global Logistics, Remote Surgery, AR, VR and everything else…. Of course there are elements of the ‘likely outcomes’ here, but there is plenty of reason to consider 5G to be the ultimate Swiss Army Knife - capable of doing almost anything, but only doing a few tasks really well!
Reality is that the highest bandwidths forecast are only likely to be achieved at relatively short distances, with high power consumption and relatively short battery life between charges - ie much shorter than 3 or 4G. At the same time the nee for 10 - 100x the number of 4G masts and towers renders the old mobile deployment models impractical. An obvious solution is the deployment of nodes for home and office at FTTP terminal points to provide comprehensive network coverage/geographic infill.
Perhaps the prime quality of 5G, over and above 3 and 4G, that is seldom featured is that of very low latency which is an essential for remote robotics, surgery, medicine, AR and VR applications.
So in this presentation we consider all of theses aspects (and more) in the context of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) and the move toward sustainable societies in order to present a degree of clarification as to which technologies will most likely applied where. This sees the Not as the nervous system of the planet with more thing connecting at close range off - net, with some consolidation and analysis at node before upload into the IoT.
In short; there is not enough energy available for all things to be connected by 5G technology, and nor is it necessary, the available alternatives for very short range - low energy connectivity are not only viable they are more attractive by size, form factor, cost, and operational modes, We therefor predict a dynamic mixed technology future…
Connecting Everything Vital to Sustainability
Mobile network evolution has followed a reasonably predictable path almost entirely focused on the needs of human communication. The transition from 1 to 2G was dictated by the economics of reliability, performance, and scale, whilst 3, 4, and 5G saw the transition to mobile computing with full internet access, AI and an ever-expanding plethora of applications. But 5G could be the end of the line as cell-site energy demands have become excessive at ~10kW.
Midway between the migration from 4G to 5G, M2M and the IoT machines overtook the human population of 8Bn people with near (estimated) 20Bn devices. Current IoT growth rates suggest a 40 - 60Bn population by 2030 to 2050. However, we present evidence that it could be far more ~ 1,000Bn ‘Things’. This is based on the observation of the number of IoT components populating modern vehicles, homes, offices, factories and plants, along with smart ‘human implants’ and ‘smart bolts’ plus the instrumentation of civil; structures.
The bold assumption that 5G would be a dominant player in the IoT is now patently one of naivety and the world has become far more complex with over 10 wireless standards currently in use. So, this poses the question; will 6G rise to the challenge? We see this as highly unlikely as the diversity of need is extremely broad, and we propose that it could be the end of tower based networks for a lot of applications. A migration to mesh-nets, UWB and (Hyper Wide Band) for the IoT at frequencies above 100GHz seems the most obvious engineering choice as it allows for far simpler designs with extremely low power at sub $0.01/device cost. 5G is already on the margins of being sustainable, and a ‘more-of-the-same’ thinking 6G can lonely be far worse!
In this lecture is the final session of an extensive wireless course delivered over several weeks at the University of Suffolk. So, by way of ‘rounding-off’ the series, we chart the progression of wireless/radio communication from the first spark transmitters through Carrier -Wave Morse, AM, FM, DSSC, SSB to digital systems along with the use of LW, MW, SW, VHF, UHF and Microwaves. Whilst we focus on Electro-Magnetic-Waves from 30kHz through 300GHz, we also mention optical, ultrasonic, and chemical communication as additional modes.
Our examinations detail the distinct genetic trails of 1, 2, 3G, and 4, 5G, the approximate development cycles/timeline along with distinctive changes in design thinking. We then postulate that 6 and 7G are likely to form a new line of development with 6G probably realised without any towers or any conventional cellular structure. In this context we also point out that there are no digital radios today, only traditional analogue designs with ‘strap-on-modems’ at the transmitter and receiver. Perhaps more radically, we suggest that it is time to adapt fully digital designs that allow for the eradication of the established bands and channels mode of operation.
We also chart the energy hungry progression of systems from 1 through 5G where tower installations are now consuming in excess of 10kW due to the extensive signal processing employed. This immediately debunks any notion of another step in the direction of more bandwidth, lower latency, greater coverage with >20x more towers (than 4G) and >250Bn power hungry smart devices. In short: we propose that 5G is the last of the line and the realisation of 6G demands new thinking and new modes that lead us away from W and mW to µW and nW wireless designs.
Whilst most of the technology required for 6G is available up to 300GHz, there remains one big channel in respect of the growing number of antennas per device and platform. Even for 3 - 5G + WiFi + BlueTooth space is at a premium in mobile devices and fractal antennas have not lived up to their promise too integrate all of these into one wideband structure. However, at 100GHz and above, antennas/dipoles become less than chip size and can see 10s included as phased arrays. But this all needs further work!
Throughout this lecture, we provide examples, demonstrations, and mind-experiments to support our assertions.
Simon Harrison RWE - Chain of Things 010616 finalSimon Harrison
This document discusses the need for security in the Internet of Things (IoT). It provides background on IoT, including key events in its development over time. It then discusses some of the security risks associated with IoT, including risks to confidentiality, integrity, availability and non-repudiation. Potential threat actors like criminals, mischief-makers, terrorists and discontented individuals are also outlined. The document argues that as more things become connected, security needs to be a higher priority early in the design process.
This document provides an overview of 5 technology trends to watch in 2015 according to the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA). It summarizes each trend in 1-2 sentences:
1. Big Data Analytics - With the rise of sensors, devices and digital connectivity, massive amounts of data are being collected and analyzed to provide predictive insights.
2. Digital Health and the Quantified Self - Technologies like wearables, apps and remote monitoring devices allow people to quantify biological metrics to track health and fitness.
3. Entertainment and Immersive Content - Advances in displays, processing power and connectivity enable new immersive entertainment experiences through virtual and augmented reality.
4. The Rise of the Machines - Robot
This is the first in our new series of interactive events in collaboration with Adobe, and includes survey results. You'll find the full recording on the Adobe site at http:/adobe.ly/1qolpNM
You'll find more about this series at http://www.culturecom.net/TransFormation/webinars_2014/about.html
The multiplication of communicative objects that take decisions without human intervention is not a simple technological phenomenon, but a complex reorganization of social interaction. Will this development enable greater equity throughout the world, or will it widen the digital gap?
Please also read our blog at http://blogs.adobe.com/techcomm/2014/06/internet-of-things-expensive-luxury-for-the-rich-or-more-sustainable-equity-for-all.html
Discussion materials for Internet of Things and Smart Cities - Vespucci 2016 ...SensorUp
This is a presentation file prepared for the Vespucci Summer Institute 2016 Week 2. It serves as the introductory material for discussions. It covers the introduction of the Internet of Things, smart cities, what do we mean by "smart" cities, and finally touched on the topic of startups for the IoT field.
Industries 1.0, 2.0 (and most of) 3.0, saw manufacturing and construction using natural materials readily extracted, refined, amalgamated, machined, and molded. In general, these exhibited fixed mechanical, electrical, and chemical properties. However, the latter stages of Industry 3.0 embraced synthetics exhibiting superior properties to afford new degrees of freedom in the design of structures and products.
Today Industry 4.0 sees further advances with metamaterials, dynamic coatings, controllable properties, and additive manufacturing. Embedded smarts have also made communication between components, products and structures possible under the guise of the IoT. Adaptable materials with a degree of self-repair are also opening the door to further freedoms and less material use. In combination, these represent a big step toward sustainable societies with highly efficient ReUse, RePurposing, and Recycling (3R).
At the leading edge, we are now realising active surfaces that can reflect, absorb, or amplify wireless signals, offer programmable colour, and integral energy storage. But amongst a growing list of possibilities, it is integral sensing & communication that may define this new era. In this presentation, we look at these advances in the context of smart design, cities & societies.
This document discusses how the Internet of Things (IoT) can provide "perfect information" by connecting everything to the internet and collecting data from sensors. It explains that IoT involves digitizing the physical world, uncovering unused "dark data", connecting more devices with sensors, and using the data collected to create useful insights. The document outlines how businesses can find relevant data sources, collect data from endless sensors and communication methods, transform that data into actionable information using analytics platforms, and present the information through dashboards, heads-up displays, and smart advisors to empower decision making. The goal is to leverage IoT to know anything, anytime, anywhere and make fully informed choices.
We are living through an extraordinary pandemic (CV-19) that has changed all the network norms including the way we work and communicate. An invisible consequence has been the transformation of internet and telecoms traffic promoted by people working from home, restrictions on all travel and a paralysis of almost all social norms. Living and working in isolation for 3 - 5 months has become the new mode for many, and even the most technophobic have had to turned to video conferencing and on-line purchases to ‘survive’
From a network point of view the transition has seen the concentrations of traffic in major cities and towns mutate to the dispersed and disparate working, social and entertainment activities that have found the last mile wanting. Insufficient bandwidth connectivity and resilience have quickly become a prime concern with the overloading of core networks a lesser concern.
Installing new optical links and making the core (undersea and overland long-lines) networks more robust is relatively easy as they are by far the most resilient and secure of our infrastructures. It is the local loop, our last mile, that poses the hard to fix problem. In this session we present tested model solutions based on direct ‘dark-fibre’ to home and office with no electronics, splitters or access points in the field. This is augmented by Mesh-Nets and 4/5G providing temporary bridges for random fibre breaks and cable damage.
In this workshop session we identify aging technology design concepts, old business and operating models, plus energy supply limits as the prime constraints of 6G and beyond. We also identify the notion of an erroneous spectrum shortage born of the bands and channel mode of operation which is fundamentally unsuited to 6G and IoT demands in the near and far future.
We strongly link optical fibre in the local loop with future wireless systems and the need for very low-energy ‘tower-less’ systems. We also postulate a future demanding UWB and HWB (Hyper) with transmission energies ~𝛍W and signals below the ambient noise level. This will be necessary to power an IoT of >2.4Tn Things which we estimate to be necessary for Industry 4/5 and sustainable societies.
This document discusses emerging technologies and their potential impacts. It covers topics like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, robotics, cyborgs, smart materials, fusion power, artificial life, malware, biobots, network bots, and more. The document notes that many of these technologies are still in early experimental stages and face challenges before being ready for widespread use. It also discusses debates around AI safety and the relationship between humans and increasingly intelligent machines.
Internet of Things, Various Names, One Concept, History of IoT, Applications of IoT, Challenges and Barriers in IoT, Internet Revolution, Future of IoT, Impact of the Internet, Internet Usage and Population Statistics
apidays LIVE Paris 2021 - Internet, Year Zero by Jonathan Bourguignon, Entrep...apidays
This document discusses the evolution of technology and techno-utopianism over the past 10 years. It begins by looking back at early visions of a decentralized cyberworld free from control. However, over the past decade major events like the Snowden revelations, Cambridge Analytica scandal, and COVID pandemic have eroded faith in tech. The current centralized models are examined, along with ideas for moving forward through decentralization, open participation, and ensuring technology benefits all of society.
The document outlines a plan for presenting on the topic of the Internet of Things (IoT). It begins with defining IoT as the network of physical objects embedded with sensors that can collect and exchange data over existing network infrastructure. It then lists the following key points that will be covered in the presentation: how IoT works by leveraging technologies like RFID, sensors, and embedded processing; the current status and future prospects of IoT; how IoT can help turn data into wisdom through knowledge management; potential applications of IoT in various industries; technological challenges facing IoT development; and criticisms around privacy, security, and control issues with a ubiquitous IoT network.
Similar to Science and Engineering Out of The Box (20)
When I was asked to give a companion lecture in support of ‘The Philosophy of Science’ (https://shorturl.at/4pUXz) I decided not to walk through the detail of the many methodologies in order of use. Instead, I chose to employ a long standing, and ongoing, scientific development as an exemplar. And so, I chose the ever evolving story of Thermodynamics as a scientific investigation at its best.
Conducted over a period of >200 years, Thermodynamics R&D, and application, benefitted from the highest levels of professionalism, collaboration, and technical thoroughness. New layers of application, methodology, and practice were made possible by the progressive advance of technology. In turn, this has seen measurement and modelling accuracy continually improved at a micro and macro level.
Perhaps most importantly, Thermodynamics rapidly became a primary tool in the advance of applied science/engineering/technology, spanning micro-tech, to aerospace and cosmology. I can think of no better a story to illustrate the breadth of scientific methodologies and applications at their best.
It should be no surprise that AI is treading a similar path to computing which began with single-purpose machines tasked for payroll calculations, banking transactions, or weapons targeting et al, but nothing more! It took decades for General Purpose Computing to emerge in the form of the now ubiquitous PC. Today, AI is still in a single-purpose/task-specific phase, and we have no general-purpose platforms, but their emergence is only a matter of time!
Recent AI progress has seen a repeat of the media debate and alarmist warnings for our computing past, compounded by consequential advances in robotics. In turn, this has promoted numerous attempts to draw biological equivalences defining the time when machines will overtake humans. But without any workable definitions or framework that tend to little more than un/educated guesses. Recourse to IQ measures and the Touring test have proved to be irrelevant, and without a reference framework or formal characterisation, continued discussion and debate remain futile
We therefore approach this AI problem from the bottom up by defining the simplest of machines and lifeforms to derive clues, pointers and basic boundary conditions . This sees a fundamental Entropic description emerge that is applicable to both machine and lifeforms.
This presentation is suitable for professionals and the public alike, and is fully illustrated by high-quality graphics, animations and, movies. Inevitably, it contains some mathematics that non-practitioners will have to take on trust, but the focus is on defining the key characteristics, parameters, and important features of AI, our total dependence, and the future!
Note: A 40 min session for a predominantly ley audience and not all the slides presented here were used on the day. Their inclusion here is in response to those audience members requesting more detail at the end of/during the event.
Past civilisations have nurtured small populations of those trying to understand and manipulate nature to some advantage in materials, tools, weapons, food, and wealth. However, they never formed communities and lacked the means of recording, communicating, and sharing successes and failures. They also lacked a common framework/philosophy to qualify them as scientists, but that all began to change in the 16th Century. In this lecture we consider the progression to a philosophy of science, and the underlying principles and assumptions that now guide scientific inquiry.We also examines the nature of scientific knowledge, the methods of acquisition, evolution, and significance over past centuries, and reflect on the value to society.
In the struggle to solve problems, deliver understanding, and reveal the truth about our universe, science had to suffer and survive: ignorance, bigotry, established superstitions, and the ‘diktats’ of religions and politics, and latterly, falling education standards mired by social media. We chart that ‘scientific’ journey emphasising the importance of observation, experimentation, and the search for universal laws. Ultimately, this essentially Aristotelian perspective was challenged and overtaken by the rise of empiricism, which emphasised the importance of sensory experience and the limitations of human knowledge.
Science continues to evolve and provide us with the best truths attainable with our leading edge technologies of observation and experimentation. Today, it stands as the greatest and richest contributor to human knowledge, understanding, progress, and wellbeing. In turn, debates and controversies are ongoing, shaping the field and philosophy which remains essential for understanding the nature of scientific knowledge and the models it creates. But unlike any belief system, the answers and models furnishers by science are not certain and invariant, they tend to be stochastic and incomplete - ‘the best we can do’ at a given time.
It is hard to understate the importance of ‘Thermodynamics’ in providing an almost complete (Grand Unified Theory) picture of the inner physics of energy transfer spanning machines and chemistry thro information.
Apparently, Einstein had two favourite theories: General Relativity and Thermodynamics! He championed both because of their ‘beauty’, completeness, and emergent properties purely derived from the fundamental consideration of how the universe works.
The origins of this topic mainly reside in the Industrial revolution and the realisation that the early machinery was grossly inefficient. E.G. Engines were only converting the energy consumed to ~2% of useful work output. This drew the attention of Savery (1698), Newcomen (1712), Carnot (1769), and for the next 200 years the conundrum of lost energy occupied many of the greatest scientific minds. This culminated in Rudolf Clausius (~1850)publishing his theory of Thermodynamics with further refinement by Boltzmann (1872).
Why was all this so important? In the 1700s a ‘beam engine’ weighing in at >20 tons consumed vast amounts of coal, to deliver an output ~10hp. Today a Turbofan jet Engine can deliver >30k hp at a weight of ~6 tons. This is the difference between working with little understanding, and today where our knowledge is far more complete. Our latest challenges tend around non-linear loss mechanisms associated with turbulent air and fuel flow.. And like many other fields we have to step beyond our generalise mathematical models and turn to the power of our computers for deeper insights.
Ultimately all machines, mechanisms, computing processes and information itself, involve the transformation of matter and/or bits, and thus they are Entropic and subject to the theory of Thermodynamics. This lecture therefore presents a foundation spanning the history and progress to date in preparation for the embracing other science and engineering disciplines.
This document discusses systems and complexity from multiple perspectives. It begins by exploring definitions of systems and noting their complexity can range from simple to complicated to complex. Complex systems are characterized as having emergent behaviors that are unpredictable and non-linear. The document then examines trends toward greater complexity in both natural and designed systems. It emphasizes that simple solutions are inadequate for complex problems and notes the biggest challenge is many do not comprehend the shift from a linear to non-linear world.
Recently, it has become increasingly evident that we have engineers and scientists reaching a professional level of practice without a clear understanding of the scientific method, its origins, and its fundamental workings. There also appears to be a lack of appreciation of our total dependence on the truths that science continually reveals. How this situation ensued appears to vary from country to country, and the flavour of education system encountered by students. But a common complaint is the progressive dumbing down of the science curriculum along with a dire shortage of qualified teachers. This also seems to be compounded with the increasing speciation of science and engineering into narrower and narrower disciplines. So this situation (crisis?) prompted a request for a corrective series of foundation lectures focussed on healing these educational flaws across relevant disciplines, graduating and practicing levels. This then is the first in this foundation series.
Uncanny Valley addresses our reactions to humanoid objects, such as robots, a video game characters, or dolls, and how they look and act ‘almost’ like a real human. Feeling of uneasiness or disgust in the observer are addressed directly, rather than familiarity or attraction. The theory was proposed by Japanese roboticist Masahiro Mori in 1970 and has been explored by many researchers and artists since. It has application in AI, robotics, MMI, and human-computer interaction, and helps designers to create more appealing devices that can interact with people in various domains, such as industry, education, entertainment, defence, health care, et al.
In this lecture we explain and demonstrate the fundamentals before extending the principle to sound, motion, actions, and eyes as an output mechanism. We also note that all this poses some challenges and risks in the potential for reduced the emotional connections, empathy, acceptance, and trust between humans and machines. On a further dimension the potential to create threat and terror can be useful opportunity in the military domain. It is thus important to understand the causes and effects of the uncanny valley in the wider sense in order to meet the needs of each application space
Only 40 years ago, the rate of technologically driven change was such that companies could re-organize efficiently and economically over considerable periods of time, but about 30 years ago this changed as the arrival of new technologies accelerated. We effectively moved from a world of slow periodic changes to one where change became a continuum. The leading-edge sectors were fast to recognize and adopt this new mode of continual adaptation driven by new technologies. This saw these ever more efficient and expansive companies dominating some sectors. For the majority, however, it seems that this transition was not recognized until relatively recently, and a so new movement was born under the banner of digitalization. This not only impacts the way people work, it affects company operations and changes markets, and it does so suddenly!.
Perhaps the most impactive and recent driver of change in this regard has been COVID which saw the adoption of video conferencing and working as a survival imperative in much less than a month. This now stands as a beacon of proof that companies, organizations, and society, can indeed change and adapt to the new at a rate previously considered impossible. The big danger for digitalization programmes now is the simple-minded view that there are singular (magic) solutions that fit every company and organization, but this is not the case. The reality is that the needs and culture of an organization are not the same and may not be uniform from top to bottom.
Manufacturing necessitates very steep hierarchical management structures and tight control to ensure the consistency of the quality of products. On the other hand, a research laboratory or design company requires a low flat management hierarchy and an apparently relaxed level of control. This is absolutely necessary to foster creativity, innovation, and invention. This presentation gives practical examples of management and organizational, extremes. We then go on to highlight the need to embrace AI and Quantum Computing over the coming decade to deal with future technologies, operating
and market complexity.
The aspirational visions of Society 5.0 coined by many nations around 2015/16 have now been eclipsed by technological progress and world events including another European war, global warming, climate change and resource shortages. In this new context, the published 5.0 documents now seem naive and simplistic, high on aspiration, and very short on ‘the how’. The stark reality is that the present situation has been induced by our species and our inability to understand and cope with complexity.
“There are no simple solutions to complex problems”
What is now clear is that our route to survival and Society 5.0 will be born of Industry 4.0/5.0 and a symbiosis between Mother Nature, Machines, and Mankind. Today we consume and destroy near 50% more resources than the planet might reasonably support, and merely improving the efficiency of all our processes and what we do will only delay the end point. And so I4.0 is founded on new materials and new processes that are far less damaging, inherently sustainable, and most importantly, readily dispensable across the planet.
“Reversing global warming will not see a climatic reversal to some previously stable state”
In this presentation, we start with the nature of climate change, move on to the technology changes that might save the day, the impact of Industry 4.0/5.0, and then postulate what Society 5.0 might actually look like.
In a world of accelerating innovation and increasingly complex digital services, applications, appliances, and devices, it seems unreasonable to expect customers to understand and maintain their own cyber security. We are way past the point where even the well educated can cope with the compounded complexity of an ‘on-line-life’. The reality is, today's products and services are incomplete and sport wholly inadequate cyber defence applications.
Perhaps the single biggest problem is that defenders have never been professional attackers - and they don’t share the same level of thinking and deviousness, or indeed, the inventiveness of their enemies. Apart from an education embracing the attack techniques, and in some cases, engaging in war games, the defenders remain on the back foot However, there a number of new, an potentially significant, approaches yet to be addressed, and we care to look at the problem from a new direction.
In the maintenance of high-tech equipment and systems across many industries, identifiable precursors are employed to flag impending outages and failures. This realisation prompted a series of experiments to see if it was possible to presage pending cyber attacks. And indeed it was found to be the case!
In this presentation we give an overview of our early experimental and observational results, long with our current thinking spanning networks through to individual hackers, and inside actors.
When people are exposed to the new for the first time their reaction, quite rightly, is generally one of caution and perhaps a degree of suspicion. And, when that ‘new born’ is a novel technology, reactions can quickly become amplified and biased toward the dystopian by the sensationalism of media and mis-information of social networks. In this modern era I think we can also safely assume that Hollywood has more than a ‘bit part’ in nurturing extreme reactions with movies such as Terminator, AI and Ex-Machina.
Our purpose here is to dispel the modern myth that technology is, or can be, inherently evil and a direct threat to humanity. We do so by positing three basic axioms:
“Without technology we would know and understand
almost nothing”
“The greatest threat to humanity is humanity”
“If technology progress and societal advance stall, then civilisations collapse”
Having briefly establishing these in the context of our wider history, we focus on the Industrial Revolutions and their beneficial upside and consequential negatives. We then move on to examine Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Artificial Life, and Quantum Computing in the context of our current needs and realising sustainable futures, and the survival of our civilisation.
Seventy years on from AI appearing on the public scene and all the optimistic projections have been largely overtaken with systems outgunning humans at all board, card and computer games including Chess, Poker and GO. Of course; general knowledge, medical diagnosis, genetics and proteomics, image and pattern recognition are now all firmly in the grasp of AI.
Interestingly, AI is treading a similar path to computing in that it began with single purpose/task machines that could only deal with a company payroll calculations or banking transactions and nothing more! General purpose computing emerged over further decades to give us the PCs and devices we now enjoy. So, AI currently runs as task specific applications on these general purpose platforms, and no doubt, general purpose AI will also become tractable in a few decades too!
Recent progress has promoted a deal of debate and discussion along with hundreds of published papers and definitions that attempt to characterise biological and artificial intelligence. But they all suffer the same futility and fail! Without reference to any formal characterisation, all discussion and debate remains relatively meaningless.
Somewhat ironically, it was the defence industry that triggered the analysis work here. Two of key steps to success were: the abandonment of all performance comparisons between biological and machine entities; and the avoidance of using the human brain as some ‘golden’ intelligence reference.
This presentation is suitable for professionals and public alike, and comes fully illustrated by high quality graphics, animations and movies. Inevitably, it contains (engineering) mathematics that non-practitioners will have to take on trust, whilst professionals may wish challenge on the basis that the focus on getting a solution rather than the purity of the process!
We are engaged in a war the like of which we have never seen or experienced before. Our enemies are invisible and relentless; with globally dispersed forces working at all levels and in all sectors of our societies. They are better organised, resourced, motivated, and adaptive than any of our organisations or institutions, and they are winning. This war is also one of paradox!
“The cost to many nations is now on a par with their GDP”
“No previous war has seen so many suffer so much to (almost) never retaliate”
“We are up against attackers who operate as a virtual (ghost-like) guerrilla army”
“No state can defend its population and organisations, and they stand alone - isolated and exposed”
“A real army/defence force would rehearse and play all day and very occasionally engage in warfare. We, on the other hand, are at war every day but never play, war-game, or anticipate new forms of attack”
To turn this situation around we need to understand our enemies and adopt their tactics and tools as a part of our defence strategy. We also have to be united, and organised so the no one, and no organisation, stands alone. We also have to engage in sharing attack data, experiences and solutions.
All this has to be supported by wargaming, and anticipatory solutions creation.
The good news is; we have better, and more, people, machines, networks, facilities, and expertise than our enemies. All it requires is the embracing of advanced R&D, leadership, sharing, and orchestration on a global scale.
Throughout my career in science, engineering and management I attended numerous meeting where many misconceptions and misinterpretations were evident. Perhaps the most expansive and expensive were the probabilities assumed and calculated for system reliability and/or product manufacturing quality. Eventually, I began to refer to this as ‘five nines’ problem!
Not fully understanding the origins of the reliability measures, it is so easy to demand a 99.999% instead of 99.99% up time for an electronic system. What could be easier? At face value it appears to be trivial and straightforward! Likewise, taking a 5s manufacturing plant up to a 6s defect level turns out to be a monumental engineering challenge! And at the time of writing 6s has never been achieved!
It appears that to few engineering and management courses address this topic, and if they do, it is as a scant reference of insufficient depth. So, we see far too many students understand in any depth, if at all! And when they become managers they just ‘don’t get it’!
This presentation and the associated lecture have been specifically created to address this problem with relevance to BSc, BA, MSc and MBA students along with anyone needing a refresher or explicit introduction to the topic. In addition to the graphics, animations and movies, the lecture is also littered with practical examples and the outcomes of case studies.
We are engaged in an exponentially growing cyber war that we are visibly losing. Within the next 3 years it has been estimated that the global cost will equal, or overtake, the UK GDP, and it is clear that our defences are inadequate and often ineffective. Malware and ransomer-ware continue to extort more money, and cause damage and inconvenience to individuals, organisations and society, whilst hacker groups, criminals and rogue states continue to innovate and maintain their advantage. At the same time, our defences are subverted and rendered ineffective as we operate in a reactive and prescriptive, after the fact, mode with no foresight or anticipation.
In any war it is essential to know and understand as much about the enemy as possible, it is also necessary to establish the truth and validity of any situation or development. Doing this in the cyber domain is orders of magnitude more difficult than the real world, but some of the relevant tools are now available or at an advanced stage of development. For example; fully automated fact checkers and truth engines have been demonstrated, whilst situational awareness technologies are commercially available. However, what is missing is some level of context assessment on a continual basis. Without this we will continue to be ‘blind-sided’ by the actions and developments of the attackers as they maintain their element of surprise along every line of innovation.
What do we need? In short ; a Context Engine that continually monitors networks, servers, routers, machines, devices and people for anomalous behaviours that flag pending attacks as behavioural deviations that are generally easy to detect. In the case of attacker groups we have observed precursor events and trends in network activity days ahead of some big offensive. However, this requires a shift in the defenders thinking and operations away for the reactive and short term, to the long term continual monitoring, data collection and analysis in order to establish threat assessments on a real time.
The behavioural analysis of people, networks and ITC, is at the core of our ‘Context Engine’ solution which completes the triangle of: Truth; Situation; Context Awareness to provide defenders with a fuller and transformative picture. Most of the known precursor elements of this undertaken have been studied in some depth, with some behavioural elements identified on real networks and some physical situations. The unknown can only add more accuracy!
In a world that appears riven by social media, ill-informed opinion, rumour, and conspiracy theories in preference to facts and established truths, it can be alarming to see scientists, doctors, and engineers challenged by vacuous statements that often hold sway over the hard-won truths of science. Moreover, large numbers of people do not understand the ‘scientific method’ and what makes it so powerful.
Paradoxically, those challenging science and scientists based on their belief systems do so using technologies that can only be furnished by scientific methodologies. For sure; no religion, belief system, great political mind, anarchist, professional protester, or social commentator will produce a TV set, mobile phone, laptop, tablet, supercomputer, MRI Scanner, AI system, or vaccine! But they will criticise, challenge, and be abusive based on their ignorance and inability.
So, this is the world that now influences the minds of young aspiring students, and this presentation is designed to go beyond the simple exposition and statement of the scientific principles and method, to provide an ancient, modern, and forward-looking perspective. It also includes a complex ‘worked example’ to highlight the rigour that must be applied to establish any truth!
Our communications history is dominated by fixed networks of bounded linear predictability. These were based on precise engineering design giving assured information security, and measured operation. However, mobile devices, internet, social networks, IP, and Apps changed all that! Internets are inherently non-linear, unbounded, and essentially designoid — that is, mostly shaped by evolution, steered by demand/rapid innovation - highly adaptive and ‘learning’ in real time.
So, those who suppose we can control such networks to fully guard and protect the information of institutions and individuals are sadly mistaken. And further confounded by Industry 4.0 and the Internet of Things (IoT). Here, a mix of the information of individuals and things, is distributed across the planet on a scale far larger than ever conceived in the past, to become essential components in the survival of our species in realising sustainable societies.
Not surprising then, Privacy and Data protection are big issues for regulators, governments and civil liberties organisations. But so far, nothing has worked, and we see the UK Data Protection Act, EU-GDPR, EU-USA Shield, and Copyright Laws often ignored or worked around. These are largely derivatives of a paper based world and a pre-computing world are now largely unfit for purpose.
This presentation was created in support of a short keynote for ICGS3-21 (14-15 Jan21) UK to purposely highlight the reasons why we are losing the cyber war and what we have to do to win. The approach adopted quantifies the key weakness and shortcomings of our current defence strategies to give pointers to a more secure future.
In postulating remedies, we purposely fall back on the wisdoms of Sun Tzu and The Art of War to highlight and explain the meaning and implications of quoted insights (below) and their pertinence to modern cyber wars/security.
“To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy”
In this way, we go beyond opinion and suspicion by quantifying the scale of the individual elements of the cyber security equation using a variant of Drake’s Equation. This gives us a good estimate of the scale of the problems we face. Beyond this we highlight some cultural and political issues that need urgent attention.
Finally, we link to comprehensive presentations going back to 2016 that detail specific Red and Blue team exercises thinking and preparation. These themes were invoked to widen the awareness and thinking in the student body @ The UoS.
The document discusses quantum computing and some of its key concepts and challenges. It notes that quantum computing may help address problems in fields like life, physics, chemistry and more that classical computing cannot. However, quantum computing is still in early stages and faces challenges like noise and instability. The document also cautions against wild claims about what quantum computing can achieve today, while noting its long term potential if engineering challenges can be overcome.
It has been estimated that the global earnings of Cyber Criminals will equal or exceed the GDP of the UK sometime in the 2022/23 window. If this was the capability of a country they would be joining the G8! Clearly, we are losing the Cyber War hands down, and the time has long passed when we might ignore the threat scenarios surrounding us.
In this lecture we examine global networks from home and office through the ‘last mile,’ and on to national and international networks to identify the key vulnerabilities and points of potential ingress. We identify the cyber risks as escalating as we approach the periphery of all forms of network. For the most part, the core/carrier networks are virtually unassailable physically as they are dominated by terrestrial and undersea optical fibre cables.
Throughout the ‘carrier’ network levels the difficulty of physical interception, encryption, routing, and path diversity employed renders them secure in the extreme. Attackers, therefore, tend to focus on the exploitation of people, devices, services, home, and office appliances, and latterly, a poorly engineered IoT.
In reality, we are expanding the attack surface of the planet exponentially without due caution or care in the most exposed sectors and locations. And so, we explore potential tech and operational solutions for the future.
NOTE: This lecture is one of a series that has examined technology design and deployment, devices and the IoT, people fallibility, deviousness, internal and external threats.
In class; RED and BLUE Team Exercises have also been conducted in support of the complete Cyber Security Package to date.
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 InventoryCeline George
In this slide, we'll explore how to set up warehouses and locations in Odoo 17 Inventory. This will help us manage our stock effectively, track inventory levels, and streamline warehouse operations.
Walmart Business+ and Spark Good for Nonprofits.pdfTechSoup
"Learn about all the ways Walmart supports nonprofit organizations.
You will hear from Liz Willett, the Head of Nonprofits, and hear about what Walmart is doing to help nonprofits, including Walmart Business and Spark Good. Walmart Business+ is a new offer for nonprofits that offers discounts and also streamlines nonprofits order and expense tracking, saving time and money.
The webinar may also give some examples on how nonprofits can best leverage Walmart Business+.
The event will cover the following::
Walmart Business + (https://business.walmart.com/plus) is a new shopping experience for nonprofits, schools, and local business customers that connects an exclusive online shopping experience to stores. Benefits include free delivery and shipping, a 'Spend Analytics” feature, special discounts, deals and tax-exempt shopping.
Special TechSoup offer for a free 180 days membership, and up to $150 in discounts on eligible orders.
Spark Good (walmart.com/sparkgood) is a charitable platform that enables nonprofits to receive donations directly from customers and associates.
Answers about how you can do more with Walmart!"
Executive Directors Chat Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and InclusionTechSoup
Let’s explore the intersection of technology and equity in the final session of our DEI series. Discover how AI tools, like ChatGPT, can be used to support and enhance your nonprofit's DEI initiatives. Participants will gain insights into practical AI applications and get tips for leveraging technology to advance their DEI goals.
How to Add Chatter in the odoo 17 ERP ModuleCeline George
In Odoo, the chatter is like a chat tool that helps you work together on records. You can leave notes and track things, making it easier to talk with your team and partners. Inside chatter, all communication history, activity, and changes will be displayed.
This slide is special for master students (MIBS & MIFB) in UUM. Also useful for readers who are interested in the topic of contemporary Islamic banking.
ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, and GDPR: Best Practices for Implementation and...PECB
Denis is a dynamic and results-driven Chief Information Officer (CIO) with a distinguished career spanning information systems analysis and technical project management. With a proven track record of spearheading the design and delivery of cutting-edge Information Management solutions, he has consistently elevated business operations, streamlined reporting functions, and maximized process efficiency.
Certified as an ISO/IEC 27001: Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) Lead Implementer, Data Protection Officer, and Cyber Risks Analyst, Denis brings a heightened focus on data security, privacy, and cyber resilience to every endeavor.
His expertise extends across a diverse spectrum of reporting, database, and web development applications, underpinned by an exceptional grasp of data storage and virtualization technologies. His proficiency in application testing, database administration, and data cleansing ensures seamless execution of complex projects.
What sets Denis apart is his comprehensive understanding of Business and Systems Analysis technologies, honed through involvement in all phases of the Software Development Lifecycle (SDLC). From meticulous requirements gathering to precise analysis, innovative design, rigorous development, thorough testing, and successful implementation, he has consistently delivered exceptional results.
Throughout his career, he has taken on multifaceted roles, from leading technical project management teams to owning solutions that drive operational excellence. His conscientious and proactive approach is unwavering, whether he is working independently or collaboratively within a team. His ability to connect with colleagues on a personal level underscores his commitment to fostering a harmonious and productive workplace environment.
Date: May 29, 2024
Tags: Information Security, ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, Artificial Intelligence, GDPR
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Find out more about ISO training and certification services
Training: ISO/IEC 27001 Information Security Management System - EN | PECB
ISO/IEC 42001 Artificial Intelligence Management System - EN | PECB
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) - Training Courses - EN | PECB
Webinars: https://pecb.com/webinars
Article: https://pecb.com/article
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For more information about PECB:
Website: https://pecb.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pecb/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PECBInternational/
Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/PECBCERTIFICATION
How to Build a Module in Odoo 17 Using the Scaffold MethodCeline George
Odoo provides an option for creating a module by using a single line command. By using this command the user can make a whole structure of a module. It is very easy for a beginner to make a module. There is no need to make each file manually. This slide will show how to create a module using the scaffold method.
How to Build a Module in Odoo 17 Using the Scaffold Method
Science and Engineering Out of The Box
1. S c i e n c e a n d E n g i n e e r i n g
o ut o f t h e BOX
Peter Cochrane
Prof Peter Cochrane OBE
www.petercochrane.com
2. 601 × 261601 × 261
M u lt i - B Ox u n i v e r s e
Working inside the bounds of the status
quo ensures almost certain failure!
“We cannot solve problems with the
same thinking that created them”
3. 601 × 261
A M u lt i - B O X W o r l d
Solutions now tend to be multi-disciplinary
Sitting in one box: looking into the originating
framework is unlikely to see a novel solution
when we have most likely exhausted all the
options - and all the degrees of freedom!
The world of Boil, Hook,Newton
et al is long gone and so has all
the simplicity
We have realised that
our world & universe
are complex
4. G I A N T L E A P s
We should not fear being wrong !
Thermodynamics & Information Theory tells us
that we will never understand this with this…
BUT it took many years for those engaged in
‘brain studies’ to work through a lot of
empiricism before they admitted defeat!
…a team of these is often an insignificant
increase in the processing power wrt the
scale of problems we can now face!
LOOking beyond
our discipline OR
box is now
ever
more necessary
5. G I A N T L E A P s
We should embrace the new - fast !
A new and different assistant/team member maturing fast
Potentially the biggest AI/Thinking Machine ever…if
we can get it to work reliably !QC
8. S i n g l e i ss u e t h i n k i n g
May be OK(?) for a simple world but dangerous in a complex one
Complexity demands we
take a wide angle view!
9. A c l ea r a n d p r es e nt t h r eat
We can see it and we have lots of data, but no accurate models
“ R e v e r s i n g b a c k
down the CO2 curve
of pollution will not
see a return to our
o r i g i n a l c l i m a t i c
starting point…we
will arrive at a new
point of stability…
and we don’t know
where and what that
might be”
10. A c l ea r a n d p r es e nt t h r eat
We can see it and we have lots of data, but no accurate models
“ R e v e r s i n g b a c k
down the CO2 curve
of pollution will not
see a return to our
o r i g i n a l c l i m a t i c
starting point…we
will arrive at a new
point of stability…
and we don’t know
where and what that
might be”
A massive ice
melt and ocean
warming has
been triggered Tree planting to
compansate for
amazon logging
will impact too
11. C H O OS I N G S i m p l e
Simple decisions require little or no thinking
12. Technology
Ecology
d e p e n d e n cy J I GS AW
Economics
Society
Industry
Care
Markets
Trade
Education
Policing
Defence
Commerce
Security
Logistics
Finance
Government
Companies
W e h a v e n o m o d e l o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g
“Sometimes we might observe or infer some
limited relationships along with typical
characteristics”
“We have exceeded the bounds of our Math Frameworks and computer modelling is the only
tool we have, but it is not enough”
Law & Order
Defence
Education
Health
Institutions
Make a change to any
one element and the
w h o l e f e e l s t h e
impact - later!
13. Technology
Ecology
d e p e n d e n cy J I GS AW
Economics
Society
Industry
Care
Markets
Trade
Education
Policing
Defence
Commerce
Security
Logistics
Finance
Government
Companies
W e h a v e n o m o d e l o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g
“Sometimes we might observe or infer some
limited relationships along with typical
characteristics”
“We have exceeded the bounds of our Math Frameworks and computer modelling is the only
tool we have, but it is not enough”
Law & Order
Defence
Education
Health
Institutions
Make a change to any
one element and the
w h o l e f e e l s t h e
impact - later!
Complex Chaotic
Stochasic and
fully
interdependent latency tends to
afford The
illusion of some
success
14. BIO-TECH nano-TECH
AIRoboticsMulti-Disciplinary
hot spot for the 21C
New materials
New industries
New processes
New capabilitiess
Lower energy
Lower waste
Less friction
I 4 . 0 + I o T + + + P r o l o g u e
I n c o n t e x t : S e t t i n g t h e S c e n e a n d E x p e c t a t i o n
15. BIO-TECH nano-TECH
AIRoboticsMulti-Disciplinary
hot spot for the 21C
New materials
New industries
New processes
New capabilitiess
Lower energy
Lower waste
Less friction
I 4 . 0 + I o T + + + P r o l o g u e
I n c o n t e x t : S e t t i n g t h e S c e n e a n d E x p e c t a t i o n
p
o
lis
h
in
g
a
ll
o
u
r
o
ld
in
d
u
s
t
r
ies
is
n
o
t
en
o
u
g
h
w
e
n
eed
m
u
c
h
m
o
r
e
18. W h o D a r es ?
T h i n k i n g / B e i n g D i f f e r e n t !
“Bandwidth is free”
“Distance is irrelevant”
“We cannot charge for time”
“The IoT needs an auto-immune system”
“False information & truth denial”
Telecoms 1982:
Cyber Security 1998:
ThreatScape 2008:
The Future:
“The rise and rise of ignorance”
A very small sample of my quotes
that span a lifetime in science,
engineering and technology
19. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ?
Bandwidth is free
Distance is irrelevant
We cannot charge for time
Optical fibre changed everything !
20. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ?
Bandwidth is free
Distance is irrelevant
We cannot charge for time
Optical fibre changed everything !
PONS were an
obvious bad
choice based on
old costing and
old
thinking
21. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ?
Optical fibre far more economic, reliable, and
1,000,000 s fold more bandwidth….
Fibre fed cells would devastate this world
wireless and create an entirely new one!
22. GENESIS
Fork lift radio - analogue - long distances - lots of power
CW, AM, FM, SSB+++
P2P Fixed, Broadcast+++
LW, MW, SW, VHF, UHF+++
Terrestrial, Maritime, Airborne+++
Fixed and mobile broadcast
radio & TV receivers dominate
followed by simplex voice
transceivers
23. Big cells and n x1000s of towers
MOBILE
~10Bn live devices on 3/4G
connected to a global net of
duplex voice & data comms
• Digital modes only
• Personal mixed use and traffic
• Static base stations dominate
• Terrestrial concentration
• Large cells <20km
24. slow forward
Small cells and Nx1000s of masts
• Exponential traffic growth
• Concentrated communities
• Death of the fixed line phone
• Users demand more bandwidth
• Cells <1km
25. Now 2
DIY WiFi
P l u g a n d p l a y
n o e x p e r t i s e
re q u i re d !
26. Now 2
DIY WiFi
P l u g a n d p l a y
n o e x p e r t i s e
re q u i re d !
WiFi ~ 55%
Copper/FTTP ~ 45%
3 + 5G ~5%
Internet Traffic
27. Observations
It is a miracle it all works
Protocols very inefficient
We avoid interference by dynamic juggling!
The spectrum shortage is an illusion
We seldom use more than 20% of the available space
5G unlikely to be a big player
It cannot fully service the IoT
We need more than incrementalism
More bands, channels, modulation and coding schemes are not enough
28. Does everything, but badly
THE BIG FIX ?
5g
• Replaces optical fibre
• Outguns 3 & 4G
• Gbit/s everywhere
• Will dominate the IoT
• +++++
• Cooks a chicken
• Improves your sex life….
29. n e w d i r e c t i o n S
From connected people to connected things
People
~10Bns
Traffic
~1 Bn
Goods
~100Bns
Components
~1 Tn IoT
31. Ship to
shore
Container
to Ship
H I D D E N V A L U E
In every container operation globally
BIG DATA = Container, schedule/location ?
Small DATA = Status of container contents ?
32. 3,4,5G nets
cannot support
the demands of
future traffic and
logistic networks…
but vehicle to vehicle
systems can…by providing
the most efficient and relevant
linking of users reporting their status
and sharing local/pertinent information
Intelligent too ?
Nets and Clouds without infrastructure
34. Auto-immunity
Mirrors biological forebears
Applied everywhere 24 x 7
ICs
ISPs
WiFi
Hubs
LANs
Cards
Traffic
Servers
Circuits
Devices
Internet
Networks
Organisations
Companies
Platforms
Groups
People
Mobile
Fixed
For more goto
UCISA Conference
Birmingham May 2018
35. N e w M o d e s
More things linking off net than on
36. N e w M o d e s
More things linking off net than on
Most THINGS will never connect to the internet
THINGS will want to network and connect with other THINGS
The IoT is entirely evolutionary and not just revolutionary
New sporadic networks and associations will occur
Huh
!!
37. E n e r g y l i m i t a t i o n S
We cannot realise such a future using our current approach
Internet and connected devices ~ 10% of all energy generated
What would 50, 250 or 1000Bn IoT devices demand ?
We have to get down from mW to µW, nW and pW
This demands ‘simplicity’ of processing and communications
38. C o n t i n u e t W e a k i n g ?
This heritage/thinking cannot possible get us there
39. The Illusion of scarcity
Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking
40. The Illusion of scarcity
Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking
Actually the
spectrum
is m
ostly unused!
41. A dense London location
~50k WiFi nodes within a 1km radius of Liverpool St
Very low RF Signal
occupancy typical of most
modern cities & rural locations
42. adopting reverse gear?
Status Quo
New Track ?
Analogue
pretending
to be digital
High
energy
& complex
Pure digital
Low
energy
& simple
Conserving bandwidth for medium /long distance
mobile communication
Wasting bandwidth
for ultra-short IoT
distances
43. OpportunitY Space
High loss is a short distance/reuse +++
God Given Spatial Filters
Status Quo
Leave well
alone
New Territory
and new
opportunities
Continues untouched
All modulation
schemes from
the past +new
New modulation
schemes & modes
including hyper
Direct Sequence
Spread Spectrum
44. The Illusion of scarcity
Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking
far too complex & expensive
Unfit for the IoT purpose - especially at 30 - 300 GHz
45. N e w O p p o rt u n i t i es
High loss ideal for short distance/reuse +++
Direct Sequence
Spread Spectrum
way beyond UWB
HYPER
Direct Sequence
Spread Spectrum
46. S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
Volumetric representation of S/N, BW and Time
Claude Shannon 1945/46
I = B.T log2(1 + k.S/N)
I ~ B.T.K.S/NdB
vv
Back to basics
k.S/N >> 1
With a little engineering licence
47. The same information transmitted in 3
different modes exploiting S/N, BW and T
S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
degrees of freedom
Hugely simplified for the purposes
of explanation and clarity
48. S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
In the Extreme
‘Waste Bandwidth’ to push the Signal Below the Noise
49. S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
In the Extreme
‘Waste Bandwidth’ to push the Signal Below the Noise
Filters
Coding
Modulation
Timing Recovery
Amplifiers & Mixers
Jitter
Phase Noise
Doppler Shift
Frequency Stability
Multi-Path Propagation
Negated
50. BW ~ 500MHz
All digital no analogue elements - mixers, amplifies, filters
UWB ON AFTERBURNERS
From UWB
To HWB Hyper Wide Band
BW ~ 50GHz
SIGNAL CODING/Error Correction => Bit Counting/Averaging
1bit/Hz
0.01bit/Hz
51. Huge amounts of electronic complexity along with:
Jitter
Filters
Coding
Modulation
Phase Noise
Doppler Shift
Timing Recovery
Frequency Stability
Multi-Path Propagation
W E J U S T N E G A T E D
52. Antennas spanning huge frequency ranges
are a non-trivial, & whilst fractal antennas
may be the ‘theoretical the holy grail’,
no one has realised their full promise
with workable/practical designs
on the scale we need
One MAJOR Challenge
53. Where does it come from ?
• From a direction you are not looking
• By a mechanism you didn’t contemplate
• At a time that is really inconvenient
D E AT H / D E F E AT/ Fa i l u r e
54. W A R FA R E
Scale of Potential Devastation
Potential Depth
of Penetration
Geographical
Metaphysical
Technological
Psychological
Ecological
Biological
Physical
Virtual
Real
A wider perspective
Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information
55. Cyber-Info War
Nuclear-Warfare
Bio-Chemical Warfare
W A R FA R E
Scale of Potential Devastation
Potential Depth
of Penetration
Geographical
Metaphysical
Technological
Psychological
Ecological
Biological
Physical
Virtual
Real
Total
Extinction
Trigger
Event
CatalystA wider perspective
Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information
56. Cyber-Info War
Nuclear-Warfare
Bio-Chemical Warfare
W A R FA R E
Scale of Potential Devastation
Potential Depth
of Penetration
Geographical
Metaphysical
Technological
Psychological
Ecological
Biological
Physical
Virtual
Real
Total
Extinction
Trigger
Event
CatalystA wider perspective
Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information
THERE IS ONLY
W
AR
AND
EVERY
DOMAIN
IS
INTERCONNECTED Governments
AND
The Military
Can
no
longer
protect their
citizens
57. This varies year- on-year tempered by actual events
P E R c e i v e d T h r e at s c a p e
58. This varies year- on-year tempered by actual events
P E R c e i v e d T h r e at s c a p e
The IOTISMissing
Insider threat
Recognised
But NOT YET A
PRIORITY
59. P E O P L E
Biggest primary risk
“I think can safely assume that lay people
will never master cyber security”
“Industry has to start supplying ‘complete
products and services’ and
long term support”
“We need equipment, devices, networks
capable of safe/secure self management
and autonomous operation”
60. T H r e a t s c a p e
AI behavioural analysis required
Fun
Fame
Notoriety
Vandalism
Limited Skills
Limited Resources
Tend to be Sporadic
Rogue States
Criminals
Hacker Groups
Hacktivist
Amateurs
Money
Sharing
Organic
Dispersed
Unbounded
Huge Effort
Progressive
Cooperatives
Self Organising
Vast Resources
Massive Market
Aggregated Skills
Semi-Professional
Substantial Networks
Skilled
Political
Idealists
Emotional
Relentless
Dedicated
Cause Driven
Vast Networks
Varied Missions
Targeted Attacks
Evolving Community
Drugs
Fraud
Global
Extreme
Extortion
Business
Unbounded
Professional
Well Managed
Well Organised
Ahead of the Curve
Orchestrated Effort
Extremely Profitable
Syndicated Resources
Massive Attack Surface
Vast up-to-date Abilities
Covert
Money
WarFare
Influence
Pervasive
Disruption
Espionage
Professional
Sophisticated
Well Organised
Extreme Creativity
Orchestrated Effort
Political Influencers
~Unlimited Resources
Tech/Thought Leaders
Regime Destabilisation
Population Manipulation
Military and Civil Domains
Most attacks/attack-types and security
failures traced back to human fallibility
People are unaware, innocent, gullible,
kind and helpful…exposed…but AI can
detect and signal almost all attack types
and attackers
61. I N S I D E R T H R E A T
Edward Snowden
reenactment
Accessing, recording,
and concealing data
Demands Human//IT behavioural monitoring
Casually walking
out of the door
For more goto UCISA
Conference
Birmingham May 2018
62. G R O U P T H R E A T
Demands wider behavioural monitoring
Chinese road, rail, airport, street
public place observation
Macau casino gaming table
cheating detection
63. G R O U P T H R E A T
Demands wider behavioural monitoring
Chinese road, rail, airport, street
public place observation
Macau casino gaming table
cheating detection
A
n
o
ther
BIG
step
to
w
a
rd
so
m
e
Dy
sto
pia
n
future
64. I o T C h a l l e n g e
Ubiquitous - Made in China sans security
IoT = Massive increase in attack surface: ~From10Bn to >> 50Bn devices
Existing security solutions better than useless - but only just!
New thinking and new solutions required
Single Source = A critical dimension to overall security risks
For more goto UCISA
Conference
Birmingham May 2018
65. I o T C h a l l e n g e
Ubiquitous - Made in China sans security
IoT = Massive increase in attack surface: ~From10Bn to >> 50Bn devices
Existing security solutions better than useless - but only just!
New thinking and new solutions required
Single Source = A critical dimension to overall security risks
For more goto UCISA
Conference
Birmingham May 2018
China makes a Big
Fraction of all
Devices and net
equipment SOURCE Identity
can be very hard
even imposible
to determiNe
66. WORLD
Loss of freedom of speech
Legal system collapse
Societal Breakdown
Loss of Liberty
Dictatorship
Police State
Despotism
++++
Lies
Half Truths
Misinformation
Perceptual Distortion
Character Assassination
Social Distortions
Disillusionment
Rumour Mills
Dogma
Distrust
Fake News
Censorship
Media Control
Societal Division
Democratic Failure
Government Intervention
67. USA LEADING THE WAY ?
Social division, breakdown of law and order
The
Cult of
Trump
68. Bigger and propagate faster, further,
and deeper than the truth and
validated information….and
now growing in volume,
extremism and span
LIES & FAKE NEWS
69. Bigger and propagate faster, further,
and deeper than the truth and
validated information….and
now growing in volume,
extremism and span
Sim
ple
&
Easy to
Grasp
Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS
Creates social division, social instability, unease,
dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion,
social instability leading to violence…
No Thinking Required
Reinforces Prejudices
70. E N E M Y W I T H I N
Routine lies and info/data distortion
Leaders
Bankers
Politicians
Managers
Activists
Media
71. E N E M Y W I T H O U T
Using a new; powerful weapon of war
Ideological subversion: Changing the perceptions of populations to such an
extent that despite an abundance of data/information no one can to come to
sensible conclusions to defend themselves/families, their community/country”
Demoralisation (15 to 20 years) Re-educate one generation of students and change
their perceptions and thinking
Destabilisation (2 - 5 years) Target essential structural elements of a nation: economy,
foreign relations, and defence systems
Normalisation (4 weeks) Take over = people living under a new ideology and reality
Four Basic Stages
Crisis (6 weeks) Violent disruption to, and change of: power, structure, and economy
72. LANDSCAPE of liars
Banks
Media
Moguls
Groups
Criminals
Politicians
Terrorists
Individuals
Institutions
Industrialists
Rogue States
Governments
Political Factions
+++++
Hackers
Despots
Dictators
Reporters
Executives
Extremists
Companies
Conspirators
The Paranoid
The Vulnerable
The Disaffected
The Mischievous
The Disadvantaged
+++++
Elusive
Amoral
Corrupt
Dynamic
Dedicated
Unethical
Disguised
Nefarious
Transient
Relentless
Dedicated
Networked
Distributed
Untraceable
Multi-Media
Evolutionary
Camouflaged
Multi-Faceted
Multi-Dimensional
74. Science, Discovery and
Fundamental Truths
Technology, Engineering
and Infrastructures
Farming, Food, Industries
Institutions and Defence
B a l a n c i n g A C T
Government
Media, Society
No place for lies & dubious truths
75. Science, Discovery and
Fundamental Truths
Technology, Engineering
and Infrastructures
Farming, Food, Industries
Institutions and Defence
Lies
Untruths
Errors
Guesses
Distortions
Cross Checks
Evidence Base
Understanding
Knowledge
Theories
Models
Tests
B a l a n c i n g A C T
Government
Media, Society
No place for lies & dubious truths
76. E X P L O I TAT I O N
A new; powerful weapon of war
Continually scan the internet:
- Purge errors
- Flag lies & liars
- Publish veracity ratings
- Remove/Attenuate rogue users
- Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels
- Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders
- Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states
- Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators
- Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals
Key Enabler = TRUTH ENGINES
77. T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S
Can we accurately and reliably identify truths,
half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ?
Can we establish new framework and metrics ?
Can we make judgement calls fast enough ?
Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ?
Can we continuously cleanse the net ?
Can we educate society to the risks ?
✔
✔
✔ ?
✔ ?
? ?
? ? ? ?
78. T r u t h E n g i n e s
Easy to confirm facts - conjecture is harder
Vital for:
• Politics
• Society
• Science
• Farming
• Internet
• Security
• Industry
• Education
• Healthcare
• Commerce
• Government
• ++++
“In most arenas truth is
dynamic and changes
with our ability to
test & measure”
“Accepted truths advance
toward an absolute state
with our ability to
challenge them”
Ignorance & Uncertainty
Flat
Spheroid
Flat
Spheroid
Oblate Spheroid
Dynamic Oblate Spheroid
Precision Measurement & Truth
79. 1) Blatant: Knowingly contrived and delivered information
2) White: Knowingly contrived in order to be polite or to
stop someone from being upset by the truth
3) Propagating: Repeat a stated lie without fact checking
4) Falsehood: To knowingly distort the truth or facts
5) Misinterpretation: Knowingly or unknowingly distort
the truth or facts
6) Error: Innocently distort situations, events, truth or facts
7) Latent Error: Representing dynamic situations,
occurrences, truth or facts on the basis of old information
L I ES
80. E x p e r i m e n ts/ TO O LS
8) Bayesian Inference: Detecting a lie from linguistic patterns
and previous behaviours of individuals and populations?
9) Simple AI: Can we detect and/or identify linguistic patterns
and/or previous behaviours of individuals and populations?
10) Correlations: Can we detect repeating patterns for known
lies and liars?
11) Trending Analysis: Can we establish historical analysis of
past reporting as a reliable measure of accuracy?
12) Lie Recognition: Can we devise metrics from (8-11)
above to detect an lie and then categorise it aka (1-7) ?
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
81. W h at W e N e e d
Print Radio TV On ScreenSpokes People
Context - Meaning Extractor - Inference Engine
Fact Checkers - Primary Source Identification/Proximity
Style - Behaviours, History, Publications Analysis
Trending Analysis - Veracity % Rating
✔
✔
✔
✔
82. CO R E QU EST I O NS
Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing
Who is the author ?
Why did they publish ?
Who do they work for ?
What is their reputation ?
Are they paid/sponsored ?
Do they have a following ?
Do they cite trusted sources ?
Do they have relevant expertise ?
What is their purpose/motivation ?
Is the material current/outdated ?
What site/s is/are being used ?
++++++
Corroboration !
Fact Checking !
Correlation !
Likelihood !
Confidence
Trending !
History !
C O U L D W E
A U T O M A T E
A L L T H I S
83. T H E DY N A M I CS
Information spreading world-wide
Errors, distortions, interpretations,
air time availability, sensationalism,
number of reports disconnected
from any real significance, sees
distorted perceptions
Identify primary sources and all
qualified reports… not always
possible…especially when a
story is developing rapidly…
the environment is extremely
noisy !
P E O P L E
A s s o c i a t E
V O L U M E
W I T H T R U T H
84. C h e c k i n g
Easy To Do ?
Snopes
Politifact
FactCheck
Wikipedia
ProPublica
MBFCNews
OpenSecrets
NewsBusters
MediaMatters
FactCheck.org
HoaxSlayer.net
TruthOrFiction.com
Washington Post Fact Checker
+++++
People intensive
85. C h e c k i n g
Easy To Do ?
Snopes
Politifact
FactCheck
Wikipedia
ProPublica
MBFCNews
OpenSecrets
NewsBusters
MediaMatters
FactCheck.org
HoaxSlayer.net
TruthOrFiction.com
Washington Post Fact Checker
+++++
People intensive
AGGREGATION
Fact Checking Organisations
Now exceed 160 World-Wide
Collaboration, aggregation, sharing,
and networking between checker
projects underway in >50 countries
R i p e f o r
A u t o m a t i o n
88. A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
89. A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html
http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm
https://
90. A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html
http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm
https://
Human LEGAL
POLITIcS AND
BEUROCRACY
CONSTRAINTS
ARE THE PRIMELIMITERS
Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED
global efforT
91. s e n s at i o n a l i s m
F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s
Feb 27, 2017
Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129
“disaster-related deaths”
1368 have been listed as
"related to the nuclear power plant”
One worker is acknowledged to have
died from radiation induced illness
The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people
Chernobyl Radiation Related Deaths
Only 31 to date - since 1986 - but
published estimates up to 600,000
92. s e n s at i o n a l i s m
F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s
Feb 27, 2017
Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129
“disaster-related deaths”
1368 have been listed as
"related to the nuclear power plant”
One worker is acknowledged to have
died from radiation induced illness
The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people
Chernobyl Radiation Related Deaths
Only 31 to date - since 1986 - but
published estimates up to 600,000
A
ssessin
g
cases
like
this
is
easy
but
perplex
in
g
as
truth
is
n
ot
im
portan
t
to
such
sources
93. A text only app (for now) based on language nuances
A I N L P L I E D E T E C T O R S
Companies + Universities
>1000 Sample Articles
>200 Participants
>30 Countries
42 Teams
1 Week
Mission = To Detect
Propaganda
Fake News
Lies
Outcome
10 Top Teams
>86% Accuracy
www.datasciencesociety.net
94. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y
D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E
Applied across all sources continuously
Reported
Event
Established
Truth
Accuracy
Rating
100% 85% 95%90%
All Time
Aggregated
Trust Rating100% 95% 91.7% 92.5%
98. T H E A M B I T I O N
Facts
Ethical
History
Honesty
Pedigree
Checked
Rectitude
Traceable
Authentic
Legitimate
Actuality
Genuine
Veracity
Verified
Correct
Certain
Maxin
Exact
++++
Misrepresentation
Misinterpretation
Disinformation
Manipulation
Subterfuge
Vilification
Ignorance
Invention
Mistakes
Delusion
Rumour
Malice
++++
Myth
Fable
Fraud
Errors
Fiction
Forgery
Distortion
Deception
Falsehood
Fabrication
Inaccuracy
Dishonesty
Falsehoods
Data Monitoring, Farming, Tracking,
Measures, Metrics, Analysis,
Decisions and Confidence
Truth Lies
A I ? Decisions to be automated & fast
The only technology we have
that might just do it is AI
99. TRUTH ENGINE STATUS !
Context/
Meaning
Extractor
Inference
Engine
Primary Source
Identifier
Fact
Checkers
Style
History
Publications
Behaviours
Library
of Lies
Trending
Analysis
Veracity
Rating
100. T H E U LT I M AT E F I X
A RED or the Blue pill for the public?
Morpheus and Neo
The Matrix 1999
102. You do nothing - you wake up in your bed and believe
whatever you want to believe.
You build a Truth Engine and you stay in wonderland
and I might be able to show you how deep the rabbit
hole goes.
Remember, all I’m offering is the truth. Nothing more!
Peter Cochrane 2018
With thanks to
Morpheus and Neo
The Matrix 1999
103. Voight-Kampff Test - Replicant or Human?
Blade Runner 1982 Ridley Scott
Thank You
petercochrane.com
www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane