Technology Overlords Or A Symbiosis ?

petercochrane.com
T e c h n o l o g y

O v e r L O R D S

0r A

SYMBIOSIS ?
Prof Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc

T E C H N O L O G Y

D o e s n ’ t d o T h i s

It is never inherently evil, it is always inert!

We always seem to find a way of taking beneficial

technologies and turning them to evil purposes !

WE HAVE TO Take

A BALANCEd View
5
Believing ill informed pundits, Twitter
postings, or assuming an extreme
Hollywood dystopian view/fiction, does
not help or result in the best outcome!
ADVANTAGES
RISKS
CURE/RELIEF
SIDE EFFECTS

B r i e f e s t

S U M M A R Y
“Robots, AI, AL, Quantum Computers can do and achieve things

way beyond human brains and muscle power”
“Our dependence on Robots and AI is already total and we can no
longer survive without them - they provide/manage our heat, light,
power, food, products and services”
“Robots, AI, AL, Quantum Computers are vital components in our

species realising sustainable societies”

7
HUMAN

MUSCLE

AMPLIFIERS
“Human progress and evolution
relies upon an expanding tool set
that is increasingly sophisticated
to power our limited capabilities”
“Without our ‘tools’ we would

understand almost nothing - and
if we fail to continue their
development, our civilisation will
stall, and most likely collapse”

8
Manpower

AMPLIFIERS
“As individuals we are relatively puny, but as we
form families, tribes and civilisations, our
capabilities grow exponentially. The addition of
tools to this equation further accelerates our
abilities and progress”
We are the first civilisation to enjoy such

capability and power

9
BEWARE THE

UNEDUCATED
All statements suggesting that the
achievements of past civilisations cannot be
equalled or bettered today are erroneous,
and indicators of little or no scientific or
engineering knowledge

10
Capability

AMPLIFIERS
“With the help of technology we are all now
capable of doing the work and creating the wealth
of hundreds of people in the past”

“Living standards have never

been so good, with products

so plentiful , durable, and of

such quality and capability”
We are the first generation to enjoy

such capability and power

11
Intellect

AMPLIFIERS
“Technology has provided our species with

an ever expanding and powerful tool set
that has accelerated our progress to
improve the lives of countless billions”
“Computers, Super Computers, Robots, AI,
and QC (provided we can realise them at
sufficient scale) are without doubt the most
powerful tools we have realised, and they
open new dimensions for everyone. They are
also vital elements in achieving a future that
is sustainable”

2022: StaTus quo
There are now far more machines than people
Machines manufacture more products than humans
Machines are now the dominant communicators
Machines are the prime data/information repositories
Machines are becoming increasingly intelligent…
…and edging toward sentience!
12

t h e F u t u r e

of work - NOT! One-for-one & like-
for-like job transitions
are highly unlikely
and uneconomic in
general!
A common, ill informed & fanciful
notion: but all machines communicate
via networks and they
cannot do all that we
can!

R o b o t s C R E AT E
U N E M P L O Y M E N T
Not True: Machines of all forms always
increase the number of jobs and people in
employ - today Western economies have vast
labour shortfalls in professionals, skilled, semi-
skilled and unskilled workers!
14
More technology & machines sees
new professions and far more jobs

E n l i g h t e n m e n t
15
Radiologists desperate for help to save more lives

FUTUREs BELONG

TO THE MOST AGILE
A N D A D A P TA B L E
16
We are looking at a stronger and closer
symbiosis between us and all
our technologies - including
“Buddy-Buddy” working
with Robots and AI

S T O P P R E S S
17
Sensory robotic skin has recently been
demonstrated and implies an
increasingly safe/intimate
communication
relationship
in future
regimes

S T O P P R E S S
Sensory human skin has recently been
demonstrated as a covering for a
robotic finger and points to a
further step toward human-
machine convergence and
a new class of robotic/
species of machines
bio-hybrid/cyborg
- the implications
are profound
https://bit.ly/3mBs4dW

S T O P P R E S S
https://bit.ly/3mBs4dW
S T O P P R E S S
Self healing also
demonstrated

O B S E R VA B L E C O M M E R C I A L

A C T U A L I T I E S

“ a VERY small sample”

N O P EO P L E

B E T T E R

P R O D U C T S

2 B n P r o d u c e d / y e a r
Chips designed by AI components produced and

‘mostly’ assembled by robots

I m p o s s i b l e

F O R P eo p l e

E a s y f o r A I

A n d R o b ot s

F U N DA M E NTA L

C h a l l e n g e s
“The universe and everything in it is non-linear”

F U N DA M E NTA L

C h a l l e n g e s
“Humans are limited linear thinkers lacking

the facility to cope with complexity in the
chaotic, mathematical and physical sense”
“Combinatorics and scale are basically not
our bag”

E X E M P L A R

S Y S T E M S
Random/Chaotic

distribution of
sneeze droplets
Linear systems produce repeatable patterns
and outcomes, but non-linear systems do not!

E X E M P L A R

S Y S T E M S
• Weather Systems

• Geo Earthquakes

• Global Warming

• Climate Change

• Ocean Currents

• Solar Storms

• Landslides

• Sun Spots

• Galaxies

• Plasmas

• +++
• Clustering

• Sociology

• Colonies

• Flocking

• Herding

• Crowds

• Mating

• Tribes

• Riots

• Life

• +++
• Biological Intelligence

• Artificial Intelligence

• Social Networks

• Auto-Immunity

• IP Networks

• Economics

• Ecologies

• Proteins

• Politics

• Riots

• +++
Random/Chaotic

distribution of
sneeze droplets
Linear systems produce repeatable patterns
and outcomes, but non-linear systems do not!

Every new non-linear system we confront

is a new challenge and a new experience

and we generally have no clue what form

the solution and answer might be
Exemplar cases and averages
do not work, and the best we
can hope for is a statistical
steer based on Monte-Carlo
runs et al
N o G e n e r a l i s e d

M o d e l s o r M at h

Q U OT E
“Werner’s observation is
both deep and profound,
and it implies limitations
to human progress. What
we are able to create and
understand will come to
a grinding halt at some
point in the future. And
in turn, this will define the
end of our species !”

“When a species, or civilisation, ceases to evolve it is unable to adapt to
environmental change including direct and indirect competition, or existential
threats such as nuclear war, pandemics, climate change and the exhaustion of
raw materials”
A N O B S E R V AT I O N

F r o m H i s t o r y

29
Sumerian

Persian

Egyptian

Roman

Aztec

Mayan

Inca

Hindu

Chinese

Japanese
X
University of Cambridge’s
Luke Kemp compiled a list
of civilisations to compare
how long they lasted

F U N DA M E NTA L

C h a l l e n g e
“Unfortunately, WE do not cope well
with scale - large and small”

C O N T I N U A L

I t e r at i o n &

R E F I N E M E N T
“ All human progress has been
driven by approximate models
continually refined by increasingly accurate
experimentation/observation powered by new technologies

Our Educational

Reality

Full of uncertainty/imprecision
with questions/problems having
no solid answers/solutions that
are deemed unstable, unproven

and not fully understood

…and all tightly bounded
by our inabilities
E d u c a t i o n a l

M I S c o n c e p t i o n
Our Educational

Illusion

Full of certainty & precession
with questions/problems having
solid answers/solutions that are
deemed correct and proven

…all within an unbounded
& continually expanding
span and scope
The minute domain
we do actually
understand
The small domain
that we do not
understand

A causal outcome of need,

solution and demand!
REMARKABLE

P r o g r e s s
Man-Machine
Symbiosis and
programmable
materials
Nomadic

Hunter
Gatherer
Farmer
Artisan
~200k years
More progress

than all prior

human history

Industrial

Revolution

Begins
Industry 4.0

Begins
Clean Water

Sewage Treatment

Provision of Food

Medical Advances

Education for All

Healthcare for All

Heat, Light, Power

Working Conditions

+++

n e m e s i s o r g e n e s i s
“Our technological progress now sees us solving problems and creating
things way beyond the abilities furnished by our biology”
“It also sees us creating/facing challenges that may threaten our long-
term survival and that of all life on the planet”
“There is no going back, no reverse gear; our technological dependency
is complete - and we have to look in that directions for solutions”

t h e r m o d y n a m i c s

A N D o u r l i m i tat i o n
This will
Understand This
Never

t h e r m o d y n a m i c s

A N D o u r l i m i tat i o n
This will
Understand This
Never
Adding more and more disconnected or

socialising biological brains will not improve the

equation/capacity/capability significantly/sufficiently

I CE M E LT
Our computer models are crude and
incomplete but the approximations they
give us are alarming!
Panicking
is
a
very
poor
substitute
for
thinking

N at u r a l D i s a s t e r s
DITTO

E x t r e m e W e at h e r
DITTO

G lo b a l Wa r m i n g
1990 1940 1980 2020
1.0C
0.6C
0.2C
-0.2C
-0.6C
-1.0C
1362 W/m2
1361 W/m2
1360 W/m2
Solar
Irradiance
Mean Global
Temp Rise

1990 1940 1980 2020
1.0C
0.6C
0.2C
-0.2C
-0.6C
-1.0C
1362 W/m2
1361 W/m2
1360 W/m2
Solar
Irradiance
Mean Global
Temp Rise
irrefutable
evidence

unclear/dubious

solutions

The distribution of change is not
homogenous it is clustered with
volatile hot and cold regions/spots
A very small temperature change
can result in a very a big impact
on the global weather system
“The system is fundamentally non-
linear and way beyond our math
and computing abilities”

The distribution of change is not
homogenous it is clustered with
volatile hot and cold regions/spots
A very small temperature change
can result in a very a big impact
on the global weather system
“The system is fundamentally non-
linear and way beyond our math
and computing abilities”
irrefutable
evidence

change
is
happening

to
w
hat
end
?

S e G u e : d e m o g r a p h i c s
Immigrant labour is now an essential
Not enough skilled and unskilled people
Insufficient highly educated professionals
Low numbers of innovators and change agents
A very limited number of problem solvers
Unfit for purpose education systems
Stretched to breaking healthcare
+++++++
People migrations to come
Ageing populations throughout the developed and developing world
technology
is
adding
POSITIVE
capabilities

exponentially

s e g u e : S I M P L E
Linear System; The input and output
change in direct proportion step-by-step
- E.G. y = m x + c
‘Simple’ Non-Linear System; The
input and output do not change in
direct proportion - E.G. y = m xn+ c

C O M P L E X
Linear System; A given set of
input conditions always result in
the same outcome but can be
hard to understand why !
‘Complex’ Non-Linear System;
A given set of input conditions give
a different outcome each time in a
very hard to impossible way to
understand!

e x a m p l e A N D

E x p l a n at i o n
1) When asked the same
question periodically from being
sober to totally inebriated the
answers will span a range of
p o s s i b i l i t i e s b e c o m i n g
increasingly unlikely with time.
2) Outcomes are influenced by the
starting conditions and previous
activities…stored states and
memories in a brain or computer

SEGUE: Chaotic v Random
It can be mathematically proven that:
1) Chaos is deterministic, while true randomness is non-deterministic
It has order and patterns that are dependent on initial conditions. No matter
how irregular and disorderly an outcome, there is always an underlying order
/pattern/sequence. The results can only be recreated accurately by precisely
repeating the starting conditions/input states.
2) True randomness has no order and it does not follow any pattern or
sequence. No matter the form of the outcome, there is no detectable order.
The results can never be recreated accurately no matter how precisely the
starting conditions/input states are replicated.

T H E o f t q u o t e d
B U T T E R F LY e f f e c t
All biological life;

it’s processes/forms,

are essentially stochastic and
exhibit behaviours that are chaotic
All machines; their forms,

associated processes, and

responses are essentially probabalistic but also
exhibit rhythmic tendencies that verge on chaos

M ac h i n e - l i f e

I N T E R A C T I O N
These fingers and their form,

processes and function are

essentially stochastic
This simple flying machines and its form;
associated mechanical processes, and

behaviours, are essentially probabalistic
A stochastic process is never rendered
probabalistic/ordered by a probabilistic
process…however, probabilistic systems

are rendered stochastic by a stochastic
encounter/input/influence

R e a l i t y

B Y T E S
All analogue and digital systems are perturbed/
distorted by a degree of randomness in the form of
noise and decision errors. So the question is: can we
recover ‘The Truth’ by some process of ‘clean up’ or ‘error correction’ to a
sufficient degree we might achieve our design objectives ? This is all well
understood and described/documented/enshrined in ‘Thermodynamics’ and
‘Information Theory’

I C T S Y S T E M S

N E T S W O R K S


The biggest mix of chaotic and
random activity created by mankind
- with important patterns of
behaviour hidden in the noise!

I C T S Y S T E M S

N E T S W O R K S


The biggest mix of chaotic and
random activity created by mankind
- with important patterns of
behaviour hidden in the noise!
Made Difficult By Random Noise

Evolving of key/new applications

Cyber attack prediction

Failure forecasting

Traffic analysis

User demand

Maintenance

Planning

S I M P L E r e a l i t y
Simple
Linear
Problems
Hard
Linear
Problems
Nasty
Problems
“The early illusion of a largely linear
and well behaved universe that can be
well characterised mathematically and
modelled by computer programs”

C O M P L E X Ac t ua l i t y
Hard
Non-Linear
Problems
Linear
Problems
“Any illusion of simplicity is transitory
and short lived - and we face many
problems beyond our human and
digital computing abilities”
Nasty
Non-Linear
Problems

D e s i g n e d i n l i m i t s
50 years ago all of our technologies could be ‘exhaustively tested’ - and one human
brain could understand the workings in great detail! This is no longer true or even
remotely possible - combinatorial complexity now defeats both human and machine

D e s i g n e d i n l i m i t s
50 years ago all of our technologies could be ‘exhaustively tested’ - and one human
brain could understand the workings in great detail! This is no longer true or even
remotely possible - combinatorial complexity now defeats both human and machine
We design, build and test to the
best of our abilities and facilities but
re m a i n s u b j e c t t o s u r p r i s e
behaviours & happening. Emergent
properties rules - and Monte-Carlo
testing + constant monitoring in the
field is about the best we can do!

W i t h t h e d e p l o y m e n t o f
autonomous machines passing a
degree of self determinism - plus the
ability to evolve in form and
behaviour the situation will rapidly
get worse and we will be relegated
to become spectators!

C o m p u t i n g l i m i t s
Digital computers are self limited by their inability
to physically scale-up to cope with the exponential/
combinatorial complexity challenge of big (nasty)
Non-Linear problems such as climate change,
weather prediction, chemistry, biology, ecological
and life systems, population change, conflict/
behavioural modelling of countries, societies,
networks, economies al.
O
S

A
p
p
s

W
/
m
3

F
L
O
P
/
s

S
t
o
r
a
g
e

M
B
y
t
e
/
s

W
/
F
L
O
P

A
r
c
h
i
t
e
c
t
u
r
e

s tat u s Q U O
A combination of Quantum Computing, AI, and
Super Computers is required to solve complex
problem sets of numerous (exponential) kinds.
Super Computers are advanced
and stable elements; AI is making
rapid advances with many
positive contributions already;
whilst QC is still in its infancy!

s e g u e I N : s i m p l e m i n d e d
Climate

State
Good

Stable
Bad

Unstable
Average

Temperature
State 1
State 2
Tundra Methane Release

Amazon Destruction

Ocean Temp Rise

CO2 Forest Fires

Ice Melt CO2

Pollution

++++

T H E U P S I D E
Where are we ?

What do we have ?

What can we actually do ?

What is on the wider horizon ?

g e n o m e

d e c o d e
Demanded powerful digital
computers and advanced robotics
to achieve a workable price break

g e n o m e

d e c o d e
characterises
>5000
rare
conditions
used
for
>100
drug
designs

g e n o m e

d e c o d e
characterises
>5000
rare
conditions
used
for
>100
drug
designs
ALL
LIFE
ON
EARTH
FLORA
and
FAUNA
is
m
ade
of
the
sam
e
genom
ic
stuff

P r ot e i n

F o l d i n g
An ongoing challenge >1000 fold
more complex than decoding the
genome and demands strong AI to
solve the ’N’ Dimensional
complexity of folding and key/
pattern matching. Google Alpha -
Fold has been the single biggest
breakthrough to decode over
400k Protein Types. This was a
grand challenge now relegated to
the norm!
M
ASSIVE
COM
BINATORIAL

COM
PLEXITY
OUT
OF
REACH
FOR
HUM
ANITY
BUT
W
ITHIN
THE
GRAsp
of
m
achines

k i l l e r

e r r o r s
“Communication Errors

in this path decide our

ultimate fate”
Our Genome can transmit

correct or corrupted or
mutated data
Data can mutate or become
corrupted during transport
Outcome can be a cancer,
virus, useful or mutated
variant cellular structures
>95% of all human ailments are thought to be down to
data errors during the creation of new proteins - these
mechanisms also looks to be vital to the evolution process

k i l l e r

e r r o r s
“Communication Errors

in this path decide our

ultimate fate”
Our Genome can transmit

correct or corrupted or
mutated data
Data can mutate or become
corrupted during transport
Outcome can be a cancer,
virus, useful or mutated
variant cellular structures
>95% of all human ailments are thought to be down to
data errors during the creation of new proteins - these
mechanisms also looks to be vital to the evolution process
decoding
this
com
m
s
path
dem
ands
QC
and
ai plus
plus

Hospital
Prime Centre
of Expertise
& Capability
Medical Centre
Prime Point of Local
Capability
Home Based
Measurements
Monitoring
Medication
Technology
Push
- Patient Pull
ENABLING

PROGNOSIS
From Medicine for some
fictional Average Patient to
Designer Medicine for the
Individual and DIY Care

N E T W O R K s

W E C a n n ot

Design & Test
Non deterministic networks of

people and things on a global scale

a re wa y b e yo n d o u r a b i l i t y t o m o d e l

Japanese
Earthquake
prom
oted
m
assive

netw
ork
dem
and
T R A F F I C
 
W E C a n n ot

C h a r ac t e r i s e

Without QC we will never understand:

-Life

-Physics

-Biology

-Chemistry

-Cosmology

-Complexity

-Non-Linearity

-Quantum Mechanics

-Many-Body Problems

-G e o l o g i c a l D y n a m i c s

-Weather/Climate Systems

-++++++++++++++++++
s e g u e w h y Q C

F A L S E

C L A I M S
W i l l re l a c e ( a l l ) d i g i t a l c o m p u t e r s

Mass shippin g in ~5years
Fundamentally we face two problem sets:

- Linear well suited to Digital Computing
- Non-Linear well suited to Quantum Computing
And Quantum Results have to be reverse computed digitally in order
to locate the correct answer out of the many produced!
SO = You will not be saying goodbye to your PC or Mainframe
- and you will not be seeing a QC in your o
ffi
ce anytime soon!

QCs are NOT:

-Digital

-Deterministic

-Long term stable

-About to replace all our digital computers

-Going to instantaneously crack all encryption
QCs ARE:

-Analogue

-Subject to errors

-Conditionally stable

-Reliant on error correction

-Produce probabalistic answers

B ac k to A n a lo g u e

QCs work in a partnership with digital computers as
their agents of control, algorithm programming, I/0
s e l e c t i o n a n d e r r o r c o r r e c t i o n : a n d t h a t i s v e r y
unlikely to change unless we make some fundamentally
new discoveries in physics and/or materials
O P E R AT I O N
QCs produce a range of possible/likely answers that
c a n b e q u i c k l y t e s t e d b y a c o n v e n t i o n a l d i g i t a l
computer

S T A T U S Q U O
R e a l i t y c h e c k : p r o b l e m s
- Qu Bits using atoms, e lectrons, phot ons?

- C h o i c e o f s u b s t r a t e r e m a i n s u n d e c i d e d

- A rch itecture /physica l c onfiguration still TBD!

- Operating tempe rat ure s ext remely low <0.01K

- Cooling plant ve ry big and operat ing costs high

- Qu Bit Noise is far too high for st able computation

- Qu Bit Conc atena tion e xponentially limited by noise

- S y s t e m s s t i l l c o n d i t i o n a l l y u n s t a b l e a n d u n r e l i a b l e

- Qu Bit count record cu rrently 127 by IBM: we need >1k
Developments are nowhere n ear st ab l e: mo st o f t h e
tech is still very much in th e exper i men tal stag e:

Q b i t d u a l i t y

H a r d & E a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d !
D i g i t a l B i t s h a v e t w o i n v a r i a n t

l o n g t e r m s t a b l e s t a t e s :
1:0
Quantum Bits enjoy a infinity of
short term probabalistic

stable states:
1 0
1 0
1 0
1 0
1 0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
Schrödinger

Schrödinger

“ S c h rö d i n g e r ’s B i t s"

a n a l o g y

S p e e d o f s p i n r u l e s h e r e
Tw o d i s t i n c t s t a t e s
E n g i n e e r i n g L i c e n c e !

I m a g i n e t h i s c o i n s p i n n i n g

1 0 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 … 0 0 0 x f a s t e r

H a r d p r o b l e m

I s o l a t e d o p e r a t i o n @ < 0 . 0 1 K
I s o l a t e d
T h e r m a l l y
M e c h a n i c a l l y

E M S h i e l d e d
A n y f o r m o f
e n e r g y i n p u t

r e s u l t s i n Q
i n s t a b i l i t y !

C O M P L E X

c o n t r o l
T h e C r y o g e n i c , C o n t r o l
a n d C o m p u t i n g P l a n t i s
v a s t c o m p a r e d t o t h e
Q C H a r d w a r e i n t e r m s
o f p h y s i c a l s i z e a n d
e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n
M
y
Guess
is
w
e
w
on’t
see
m
uch
w
idespread
use
for
a
decade
plus

R E A D Y T O S H I P ?
R e a l i s t i c p r o j e c t i o n s a r e h a r d
“Current QCs are not yet powerful enough to tackle
problems that can’t be performed by traditional
computers”

“We still don’t know the ‘magic number’ of Qubits
that will make QCs supremely useful in the real world”
December

2022
C o m m e r c i a l P r o d u c t s :

G o v & C o r p s > 2 0 3 0

L a r g e C o m p s > 2 0 3 5 / 4 0

E D U / S M E s > 2 0 4 0 / 5 0

D o m e s t i c > 2 0 5 0

BEWARE MANTRAS & ‘NEVER’

Computers will never :

Play chess

Play a good game of chess

Beat a human

Beat a grand master
Gary Kasparov

IBM Deep Blue
GAME CH ANGER 97

Considered to be impossible by philosophers

G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 8

Considered to be impossible by philosophers
NEXT BIG ADVANCE 2017

Machines learning a decade before it was expected
“No human can beat AI at any card or
board game - we stand absolutely no
chance”
No Human data required
Learns the results & gathers increasing

knowledge starting from random moves
Improves exponentially with successive

games and quickly becomes an expert
The lines of code required reduce with

each successive version/win

i n < 3 0 Y e a r s

~ 1,000,000,000 x chip capacity
Cray 2 1985

$32M and 5kW
iPhone13 2021

$1500 and 20W
2,500 x more

powerful

A I S AVE S l i v e s

N o w u b i q u i t o u s b u t i n v i s i b l e
A I n o w p r o v i d e s

m e d i c a l e x p e r t i s e

a n d a d v i s e a c r o s s t h e

h e a l t h c a r e s p e c t r u m t o

a h i g h e r a c c u r a c y a n d

q u a l i t y t h a n a n y h u m a n

b a s e d m e t h o d o l o g i e s …

B r e a s t c a n c e r

d i a g n o s i s w a s t r a n s f o r m e d b y
i n c r e a s e d r o g u e c e l l r e c o g n i t i o n
p r e c i s i o n & u n r e l e n t i n g a c c u r a c y

R o b o t s & A I

Ta k e o v e r o r b u d d y - b u d d y ?
“Networked surgical/medical
robots learn in parallel not
serial like humans”
Exponential

Education

When one robot

learns/discovers

something new,

then all robots

get the same

networked data

/experience/

k n o w l e d g e

A I D E I S G N A N D

R O B O T B U I L D

I N I N D U S T R Y

Ta k e o v e r o r b u d d y - b u d d y ?

seg ue: AI & Robotics
Problem
Algorithm
Solution
Computing
Problem
Algorithm
Solution
Machine
Learning
Problem
Priming
Algorithm
Solution
AI
Outcomes
Dynamic
Algorithm Dynamic
Correction

5
TYPE 1

Reactive
Task Specific

Very Limited
Largely Pattern Matching

Human Programmers: Chess, cards,
dominoes data, speech, pictures,
characters, behaviours, movements+
Narrow Cognition

Largely Programmed by AI alone:
Subsume the networked knowledge
of previous and current generations
TYPE 3

Reasoning
Multi-Task Ability

Broadly Applicable
TYPE 2

Learning
Task Specific

Broadly Applicable
Memory and Analysis

Initial Human AI Program That Then
Adapts: Recognises highly complex/
large scale non-linear relationships

LADDER

A I P r o g r e s s
Full Awareness

May be categorised as a ‘being’:
With a wide range of sensory units
networked to other machines
TYPE 4

Self-Aware
~ 70yrs to become a solid

& deployable technology
2027 Robotic embodiment,
extensive sensors & actuators
plus entity networking
rapidly raises the game
2017 Google Alpha GO
p r o p e l s A I i n t o a n
autonomous future of
learning & doing
2024 AI-Human cooperation
see exponential innovation &
progress of AI capabilities

robots & AI

Powering Industry and Trade

S o o n t o b e

S E N T I E N T

A IWe cannot survive without it !
“Already ubiquitous &
a critical component of
I4.0, Society 5.0, and
vital for sustainability”
Medicine
Industry
Transport
Logistics
Farming
Defence
Law and Order
Pharma
Energy
Networks
Trading
Health
Services
R&D
Science
Design
Judiciary
InterNet
Commerce
eCommerce

S T O P P R E S S

Autonomous ships have now
traversed oceans !

S T O P

P R E S S

Autonomous cars are now
legal and on the roads in
29 USA states!
USA Car accidents

> 5M/year

Deaths >40k /year

To A&E > 4.5M/year

>90% of car

accidents are

driver error !

D E b a t e

Academic & Futile
“ P o l i t i c i a n s a n d p h i l o s o p h e r s c a n
discuss till the cows come home, but
this is a done deal - the cat
is out of the bag and our
dependence is total - and
there is no going back ”
“It is now down to us and
what we choose to do - it
always is”

F r o m N a r r o w
T O G e n e r a l A I

O NTO S E NT I E N CE
C o m p u t i n g / I T p r o g r e s s i o n : t a s k
s p e c i f i c t o g e n e r a l p u r p o s e - P C !
“ T h e s i n g l e b i g g e s t m i s t a k e t h e
A I c o m m u n i t y h a v e m a d e i s t o
a s s u m e h u m a n s a s s o m e g o l d
s t a n d a r d r e f e r e n c e o f a b i l i t y
a n d / o r p e r f o r m a n c e f u n c t i o n ”
“ B u i l d i n g a n a r t i f i c i a l h u m a n
b r a i n i s a n i n t e r e s t i n g t a r g e t ,
b u t c r e a t i n g n e w i n t e l l i g e n c e s
i s a f a r m o r e i m p o r t a n t / u r g e n t o n e ”

M e a n i n g l e s s I Q

a n d T u r i n g T E S T

S p e c i a l i s e d

S U P E R I O R I T Y
“The good news Dave, is that the
computer’s passed the Turing
Test, but you have failed”
GO
Poker
Chess
Complexity
Mamagrams
Comp Games
Protein Folding
Medical Diagnosis
Composing Music
Drawing/Painting
Circuit Design
Data Analysis
Transcription
Chip Design
++++
Machine learning and rule creation have
overtaken human programming for AI

C O M M O N

E R R O R
The attributes of physical dexterity,
fl
exibility,
mobility, communication, intelligence and
evolved to meet the speci
fi
c demands of
given environments - many of which we
(humans) cannot survive in!
Our speci
fi
c human capabilities and attributes
were tuned by evolution to meet the physical
opportunities and limitations of surface living
on planet earth - not in water, air or space!
“Speciated superiority is a nonsense”

H U M A N I S I N G

I N T E R F A C E S
Human-AI voice interactions now the

norm and getting better by the day!
This took ~70 years of
engineering and scienti
fi
c
e
ff
ort…Mother Nature took

~700k years

D E f a c t o H O M E & O F F I C E

Vehicles, Devices, Appliances, Wearables +Apps…et al
Ask yourself:

- How much AI do I own ?
- How many times do I interact with AI every day ?
Me:

> 20
> 100

Why oh why do we think we are unique ?
h u m a n r e a c t i o n

a r t i f i c i a l

L i f e ( A L )
Apes many features of real life
- Tends to create order - ie negative entropy

- Achieves some level of sustainability

- Evolves without or with human help

- Solves problems in new ways

- Interacts with environments

- Mostly acts autonomously

- Replicates or reproduces?

Je
ff
Goldblum
(Alias Dr. Ian Malcolm.

Jurassic Park 22 Jun 2017
N AT U R E A L W AY S

F I N D S A W A Y !

a r t i f i c i a l

L i f e ( A L )
Aping life, or not, A-Life solves
problems in new ways
- Software

- Mini-Bots

- Biological

- Bio-Bots

- Nano-Bots

- Nanological

- Network-Bots

- Hybrid-Combos
Forms
“Life always
fi
nds a way, it breaks free, it expands
to new territories, and crashes through barriers
painfully, maybe even dangerously”
Je
ff
Goldblum


a r t i f i c i a l

L i f e ( A L )
Aping life, or not, A-Life solves
problems in new ways
“Life always
fi
nds a way, it breaks free, it expands
to new territories, and crashes through barriers
painfully, maybe even dangerously”
Successes So Far
- Software
- Mini-Bots

- Biological
- Bio-Bots
- Nano-Bots

- Nanological

- Network-Bots
- Hybrid-Combos
Je
ff
Goldblum


R A P I D M A L W A R E

S p e c i a t i o n

A r t i f i c i a l L i f e B r e e d i n g M a l w a r e
We had this capability 30 years ago

but neglected to develop it !

The Dark Side embraced it and

now uses to breed Malware!

S T O P P R E S S
Disabled cockroach
repaired with an arti
fi
cial/
electronic neural implant
immediately its normal
habits and behaviours
Similar experiments on
the human spinal system
are far more complex
and have yet to be as
successful
Compare the relative
simplicity of these legs
compared to the far
more complex versions
of a human…

B I O B O T S A N D

R E P L I C A T I O N

N e v e r o b s e r v e d i n n a t u r e !
O b v i o u s a p p l i c a t i o n s i n m e d i c i n e a n d p r o b a b l y a
g o o d p a r t n e r f o r b i o a n d n a n o t e c h .

T h e a p p l i c a t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s a r e o n l y l i m i t e d b y
o u r i m a g i n a t i o n & w h a t e v o l u t i o n d e c i d e s t o d o .

T h i s i s o n l y t h e f i r s t s p e c i e s !

N E T w o r k B O T S

T h e T r a v e l l i n g S a l e s m a n P r o b l e m

N E T w o r k B O T S

E m m e r g e n t P r o p e r t i e s ? ? ?
Applications in Cyber Security,
behavioural analysis, allocating
resources, tra
ffi
c routing, people
management +++ extendable to
’n-dimensional’ space…

A p i n g N AT U R E

W e h a v e l e a r n e d a l o t
f r o m o b s e r v i n g a n i m a l s

f u n g i & p l a n t s

E v e r y c a s e h a s v e r y
s i m p l e r u l e s t h a t
r e s u l t i n c o m p l e x
b e h a v i o u r s

Arti
fi
cial Life

AI

Quantum Computing

Robotics

Cyborgs

Smart Materials
F U S I O N P O W E R
Sustainable reactions remain illusive with
R&D to date spanning over 80 years - but
still more energy in than out!
China's EAST Tokamak

120 M oK for 101s and 160 M oC for 20s

Sustained plasma at 70 M oK for 17min 36s

Fusion energy requires >150 M°K
“It may just be all a matter of scale

but AI recently discovered how to

double the plasma concentration ”

P R O S T H E T I C S

A N D I m p l a n t s
Could you say no thanks?

EXO-SKELETON

S U P E R H U M A N

W e a r a b l e s
Could you say no thanks? And without you would su
ff
er

and die early

This would rede
fi
ne the expression -
‘Always On-Line’
N e t w o r k e d

F O R L I F E ?

I n t e r n e t o f p e o p l e

P e r s o n a l l y , l o c a l l y , g l o b a l l y c o n n e c t e d
Tagged Food Prepared/Consumed Food What we Do Are We Well ?
Analysys
Informed Diagnosis The Out

N o n - I n v a s i v e t o I n v a s i v e t o i m p l a n t
Non Invasive Invasive(ish) Invasive
User Driven Doctor/User Doctor Driven
’n’ hours/day 24/7 Melts Away
F U T U R E M O N I T O R I N G

L E A D E R S I N

T H E F I E L D ?

C Y B O R G

MUTATION
Prosthetics
Implants
Augmentation
AI + Nets +
Human
A hard to resist future
of convergence…
Wearables
BodyNet

Digital
Computing
Networking
Sensors
Sentience
Analogue
Computing
Sensors
Sentience
Linear
Non-Linear Non-Linear
Future
Cyborgs ?
Future
Arti
fi
cial
Life?
Quantum
Computing
Bio-Evolution
Quantum
Bio
Computing ?
Quantum
Bio
Computing ?
Biological
Life
Intelligence
AI
AI
Robotics
T h e B I G P i c t u r e

F U N DA M E NTA L

H Y P O T H E S I S
We posit the following concatenation as the most likely path to sentience:
Life => an emergent property of Complexity
Complexity & Chaos => the ground state of our non-linear universe
Intelligence => an emergent property of Life
Sentience => an emergent property of Intelligence
Complexity => an emergent property of Chaotic Clustering

S TO P P R E SS
This is just one strand of
evidence that suggests
t h a t l i f e i s e q u a l l y
possible throughout the
universe…Amina Acids
are the ‘base’ of RNA and
DNA…

A X I O M at i c
In a world of smarts

“Things that Think want to Link

and

Things that Link want to Think”

L i V e s

s a v e d

c r e at e d

r e p u r p o s e d
Nightmare, Nemesis, or new
routes to cures, repairs,
solutions - it is all up to us &
our future choices !
“Carbon, Oxygen, Sulphur,
Hydrogen, Phosphorus and
Nitrogen, is not the only life
supporting framework - they
just happen to apply on this
planet”

T e c h n o l o g y

I s n o t E v i l

WE, on the other hand…!
“Give an intelligent robot a weapon and teach it to hunt down
and kill our own kind - now that is a different proposition”

W H O H A S

C O N T R O L ?
“WE, have to engineer an
equitable and safe Symbiosis”

I G N O R E D

S I N C E 1 9 4 2

ROBOT Killers

S P O O F M O V I E !

U LT I M AT E LY W E A R E

R E S P O N S I B L E

Ethics spans every aspect of human activity
U N I V E R S A L I T Y

Whether you are a technician, researcher, designer,
builder, tester, a part of the delivery & commissioning
crew, or in a support role, a manager, or a leader, the
decisions of every individual team member ultimately
influence/decide the final outcome…
No one wants to hurt anyone, or cause damage, and no one wants
to fail, but all this is getting harder to secure as more and more
elements of our tech exhibit emergent properties and behaviours
that we cannot forecast through modelling and testing….
Beyond taking great care and being highly professional, and well
read, we have team collaboration, working practices, codes of
conduct, and basic ethics to guide our actions…
P r o f e s s i o n a l

R e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s

http://scrippsmediaethics.blogspot.com/2013/09/do-ethics-and-bias-go-hand-in-hand.html
Worth a read E.W.Scripps School of Journalism
N A R R AT I V E

“With great power comes a code of ethics”
“And science and engineering wield

great power for good or evil”

Basics
Ethics: Principles that govern a person's behaviour or the conducting of an activity
Morals: Describe one's value set concerning what is right and what is wrong
Essence: Doing the right thing - no matter what !

Positioning
Ethics = Rules of behaviour based on ideas about what is morally good and bad

A company, organisation, profession: may have its own code of ethics — its own set of
rules/bounds on acceptable behaviours
 
Philosophy = An area of study dealing with good and bad behaviour: what is
morally right or wrong
 
Belief = Something identi
fi
ed as being very important — usually singular (peace,
work ethic, justice, accuracy, reliability…)

My Short Form
“Making the right decisions even if they disadvantage you in some way”
• planet/environment

• species/societies

• country/nation

• company/organisation

• clients/customers

• share holders/governors

• our departments

• employees/people/contractors

• our departments

• our families

• our careers

• our prosperity
Scale of

Priorities/

Subordination
What is right for our:
]
Most

Important
Least

Important

Paradox
“An organisation of good, honest, ethical and well meaning people

can result in bad an unethical behaviours”
Counter intuitive
This emergent property is also evident with animals, machines and AIs

Pressure changes

Everything

Values/Ethics can

start to slip when

there is a crisis…
Paradox

If…
Rudyard Kipling
If…
Rudyard Kipling
Ethics & Values
“Easy to state and sometimes so very hard to hold to”

Our value chain is binary
and if we let one element
or quality fail then our
integrity is lost and repair
is generally impossible…
We cannot be:

• Periodically yielding to bribery or coercion

• Sometimes pro
fi
ting from inside info

• Reckless when it makes life easy

• Honest for some of the time

• Professional when suits us

• Uncaring every other day

• Neglectful now & again

• Selectively respectful

• Accepting of favours

• Partially truthful

• Unfair at will

• +++

Being Ethical is a one way

ticket - you are or you
aren’t - and there is no
middle ground
Ethics - the underpinning

framework of all the
professions - the value set
that presents our basic
standards of behaviour
ALL OR Nothing

Ethics Virginity
“Once lost you can’t get it back”
~

LIVES CAN BE LOST
Boeing 737 Max 8 2018/19
Owner: Lion Airlines

Crash: 29 Oct 2018

Location: Java Sea

Casualties: 189 Dead

Survivors: 0

Owner: Ethiopian Airlines

Crash: 10 March 2019

Flights: ET 302

Location: Bishoftu

Casualties: 157 Dead

Survivors: 0

Sales over Safety ?
Poor Management ?

or

Poor Engineering ?

NASA had been without a permanent CEO for 4 months and was in disarray

The Flight Centre Director had mandated that there would be no more delays

NASA was under political and media pressure to perform, to deliver the program

Lower level employees were constrained by bureaucracy and were not heard

The (Morton Thiokol) solid state boosters had known low temperature problems

Morton Thiokol were also under commercial and political pressure

The MT Engineers could not give a rock solid NO-GO statement

So NASA Management took this as a GO!

FORENSICS

https://www.theiet.org/membership/professional-values/professional-ethics/
https://www.theiet.org/membership/professional-values/professional-ethics/
https://www.iop.org/about/royal_charter/
fi
le_38393.pdf
https://www.raeng.org.uk/policy/engineering-ethics/ethics
https://www.iod.org.nz/Portals/0/Publications/Founding%20Docs/Code%20of%20Practice.pdf
https://www.ieee.org/about/corporate/governance/p7-8.html
READING & TBA

Technology Overlords Or A Symbiosis ?

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