The Future WorkScape
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The biggest force for social change since the first industrial revolution has been adjusting to, and taking advantage of, the new and accelerating capabilities of our advancing technologies. And in our entire history, the dominant technology driver has been silicon-based electronics. It has prompted revolutions in Computing, Telecoms, Automation, AI, and Robotics that radically changed the human condition. Today, that same exponential revolution is accelerating us into Industry 4.0 and onto Industry 5.0. The consequential transformation of medicine, industrial design and production, farming, food, processing, supply and demand has seen living standards improve and life expectancy widen. Many of our institutions have also seen tech-driven transformations in line with industry. If there has been a down-side to this progression, it has been our inability to transform the workforce ahead of new demands. Unemployment has persisted whilst reeducation and retraining have been on the back foot, whilst, the net creation of new jobs has always exceeded the demise of the old. As a result, leading countries in the first world now have labour shortages at all levels right across the spectrum. Recently, COVID-19 has demonstrated that we have the technology and we can rapidly reorganise and change society if we have to. So in this presentation, we examine ‘the force functions’ and changes engineered to date, and then peer over the horizon to sample what is to come in terms of technologies and working practices…
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Telecom service futures driven by customer need
Telecom customer services appear to be stuck in the early 20th Century with the telephone call the primary channel for service provision that can take days to affect. Compare that to Google, Amazon, IBM, Apple and other modern companies where customers control service provision by the minute or second.
Modem business is driven by the accumulation of customer data, but the Telecom Industry sees vast amounts of customer-related data dormant and untapped. As a result, many new opportunities are lost. For example, the behavior of people, devices, systems, and networks give the earliest indicators of potential security problems.
OTT operators exploit networks and make far greater profits than any other sector and this might be further amplified by the roll-out of 5G. But without a fundamental rethink of FTTP, 5G will fail to deliver sufficient coverage and the advertised data rates. This pending failure is already seeing alternative solutions from outside the industry along with the realization that most ‘things’ on the IoT will never connect to the internet!
Patient Heal Thyself
In most developed nations the proportion of old people is increasing along with their demands on healthcare services as they transit toward their eventual exit from this life. People no longer, live, work, retire and die in short order! Far more likely, they experience a series of complex, and often protracted, episodes an a concatenation of individual organ failure.
We therefore see a growing healthcare crisis across the First World with politicians resorting to very simple/similar ‘spend more, train more, and support more’ solutions. But this lacks any deep analysis. Reality is that no amount of money or people will cure this - it is a self sustaining loop of medical advance, improving survival rates, longer life spans, falling birth rates, fewer young people of sufficient talents, and reducing tax returns!
“This is an complex (non-linear) problem & there are no simple solutions”
Doing more with less, but far better, at a lower cost, by continually exploiting the latest technology is something already been pioneered/experienced by industry. It is the basic mechanism that now powers our progress - including many supporting healthcare technologies. This general principle is now a long overdue essential for healthcare professionals and patients; and absolutely necessary, if are to see any significant improvement in services.
Here we present examples of technologies that are available toady and most likely to be available in the next decade along with some necessary and key behavioural and responsibility changes.
Society 5.0 Redefined
In 2015/16 a number of bodies/nations set about defining societies they would aspire to in the near future. Each vision document similarly described some idealistic, egalitarian, super-smart, human centred, state providing a near uniformity of living conditions, and opportunity. At the same time, each society would be free of adversity, with economic development guided by ecological and human need. Of course, economic growth was defined to continue in line with the past. Very nice, but a product of old linear thinking and modelling!
It is now approaching 2022 and in the past 5/7 years our base silicon technology has advanced to enjoy a >30 fold increase in computing power. Our top end mobile devices would now challenge a super computer of 1996/7 era, whist AI systems now pervade our homes, offices, vehicles, professions and all our on-line services. At the same time, information overload has started to rival some medical conditions!
All of this has also been compounded by two years of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions that have seen the normalisation of social isolation, limited travel, working and eduction from home, virtualised medicine and care, support services, shopping and meetings. In turn, this has resulted in empty offices, towns and cities. Concurently, climate change, global warming, pollution, finite resources, a stressed planetary system, and social unrest have suddenly become urgent issues. Against this backdrop it really seems to be time to revisit those Society 5.0 Visions and the limited linear thinking that contrived them!
In this presentation we examine many of the core parameters and assumptions to highlight existing, or soon to be realised, solutions and remedies. In doing so, a different picture of Society 5.0 emerges.
Managing cyber security
Despite a security landscape now embracing: People; Companies; Governments; Devices; Networks; Services; Vehicles; Properties; LAND; SEA; AIR; SPACE; CYBER and INFORMATION, people and organisations still tend to see all this as someone else problem. In reality, it concerns all of us. Governments can no longer protect their citizens and nor can any company IT/Security Dept!
“In an ideal world: responses to Cyber and Terror would be automated and immediate”
The Dark Side has grown rich and powerful by investing in R&D and the latest technology; adopting distributed team working and a global market for talent and resources; and they are winning this war with an estimated $1.5Tn income in 2019. We have to adopt the same strategies to survive let alone win. Global sharing and cooperation are key along with people, staff, management, board, NED and Chairman education/training/involvement. At this time it is rare to find a ‘Cyber Seat’ on the main board of any organization, but it is a new and critical essential!
A STATE OF MIND - Technology, Change, and Wellbeing
At some time(s) all of us will lose control; feel anxiety, anger, exposure, vulnerability, threatened, stress, depression, uncertainty, be forgetful, or be of ‘two minds’ and so on. Our behaviors will most likely be modulated, and even strange in some way for some period. But all this is normal and a key component of our physiology of survival, and it is generally transient lasting minutes, hours, or at worst a day or two. When such conditions last for many day or weeks or become episodic, we label them mental illness.
The treatment of mental illness sufferers throughout history has not been a happy story spanning; the possession by spirits and demons, to incarceration, and institutionalization to become objects of fun, entertainment, derision, neglect, and disrespect. In the developed world a deal of progress and enlightenment (in terms of base understanding and treatment) has now been established, but there are still marked differences between the older and younger generations, sub-cultures, religions, and belief systems.
The medical profession has come a long way, and their understanding and science are still advancing, but expertise is in chronically short supply. And so there is a universal plight shared between physical and mental health with a gross shortage of skilled practitioners and physical facilities. In reality, this shortfall cannot be overcome by traditional health models - there are simply insufficient people available to be trained and qualified into all the health professions. Our only hope then; is to turn to new technologies with a progressive migration of patients from a ‘Do It all For Me’ (DIFM) to a ‘Do It For Yourself’ (DIY)_culture and expectation.
This DIFM to DIY transition is getting well established for the physical health sector, but it is still in its infancy for mental patients. Both sectors suffer the irrational/uneducated/unthinking/virulent detractors, but the reality is - we have a very limited number of choices - and we can only move within the framework of the possible. But: it is worth noting that the mental health sector is far more of a ‘minefield’ than the physical precursors. And so we should advance and experiment with great care and be sure to involve patients as a member of the team as opposed to being mere subjects and pseudo ‘lab rats’.
“tread softly, lest you step upon my dreams”
The future of education: Solving Problems by Thinking
Education systems across the West have degenerated into a series of memory tests and the quest to hit abstract performance targets and measures. So students that appear well qualified are often unable to apply the most basic of mathematical, scientific, engineering or logical principles, and nor do they have a good appreciation of history or design. This does not bode well for a future of faster change and greater complexity.
“At the most basic level our society it is about the survival of the most adaptable”
For sure; today’s education and learning methodologies have to move toward more experimental and experiential working in order to reinforce the basics whilst engendering far greater understanding. Early specialism has also to be reversed with all students studying a broader range of topics through school and on into college and/or university.
“Education isn’t something you have to get done and dusted - it is a lifelong pursuit”
There is a further need to recognize that the (so-called) academic and practical streams are afforded equal importance! To get the best out of teams/groups all members have to share a common base of understanding and appreciation. In turn, this can be enabled and supported by Just-in-Time education and training-on-line. But there is much more….
Science and Engineering Out of The Box
Summary
There has never been a time in the history of our species that has seen such innovation and rapid progress; and we have never been so confounded by the world we have realized! For sure, we have crossed the Rubicon from a linear past to a non-linear future and find ourselves lacking many of the basic tools we need to fully address the major problems confronting us.
In such an environment we have to prepared to be ‘unreasonable’, to challenge established wisdom, conventions and practices. So in this session, I present three challenging cases that do just that:
1) Wireless Spectrum: It is infinite and there is no bandwidth crisis!
2) Cyber Security: We need auto-immune systems aka biology
3) Information War: The biggest threat to the survival of our species
INNOVATION FOR REAL
Until relatively recently our world was disconnected, stable, and slow to change. We saw linear innovation and commerce mostly resulting in well behaved and predictable outcomes. But all that has changed! Non-linearities introduced by networked technologies, people and organisations accelerated innovation, markets & change with emergent behaviours rapidly becoming the new norm. In turn, management, market & economic practices have seen adaptability adopted as a vital tool.
So rapid has been the rate of progress; no country, no matter how big, has all the materials, facilities, people, and innovation skills to meet demand. Our future therefore relies on the globalisation of everything including AI, robotics, production and innovation including human intellect and skills.
Recommended
Telecom service futures driven by customer need
Telecom customer services appear to be stuck in the early 20th Century with the telephone call the primary channel for service provision that can take days to affect. Compare that to Google, Amazon, IBM, Apple and other modern companies where customers control service provision by the minute or second.
Modem business is driven by the accumulation of customer data, but the Telecom Industry sees vast amounts of customer-related data dormant and untapped. As a result, many new opportunities are lost. For example, the behavior of people, devices, systems, and networks give the earliest indicators of potential security problems.
OTT operators exploit networks and make far greater profits than any other sector and this might be further amplified by the roll-out of 5G. But without a fundamental rethink of FTTP, 5G will fail to deliver sufficient coverage and the advertised data rates. This pending failure is already seeing alternative solutions from outside the industry along with the realization that most ‘things’ on the IoT will never connect to the internet!
Patient Heal Thyself
In most developed nations the proportion of old people is increasing along with their demands on healthcare services as they transit toward their eventual exit from this life. People no longer, live, work, retire and die in short order! Far more likely, they experience a series of complex, and often protracted, episodes an a concatenation of individual organ failure.
We therefore see a growing healthcare crisis across the First World with politicians resorting to very simple/similar ‘spend more, train more, and support more’ solutions. But this lacks any deep analysis. Reality is that no amount of money or people will cure this - it is a self sustaining loop of medical advance, improving survival rates, longer life spans, falling birth rates, fewer young people of sufficient talents, and reducing tax returns!
“This is an complex (non-linear) problem & there are no simple solutions”
Doing more with less, but far better, at a lower cost, by continually exploiting the latest technology is something already been pioneered/experienced by industry. It is the basic mechanism that now powers our progress - including many supporting healthcare technologies. This general principle is now a long overdue essential for healthcare professionals and patients; and absolutely necessary, if are to see any significant improvement in services.
Here we present examples of technologies that are available toady and most likely to be available in the next decade along with some necessary and key behavioural and responsibility changes.
Society 5.0 Redefined
In 2015/16 a number of bodies/nations set about defining societies they would aspire to in the near future. Each vision document similarly described some idealistic, egalitarian, super-smart, human centred, state providing a near uniformity of living conditions, and opportunity. At the same time, each society would be free of adversity, with economic development guided by ecological and human need. Of course, economic growth was defined to continue in line with the past. Very nice, but a product of old linear thinking and modelling!
It is now approaching 2022 and in the past 5/7 years our base silicon technology has advanced to enjoy a >30 fold increase in computing power. Our top end mobile devices would now challenge a super computer of 1996/7 era, whist AI systems now pervade our homes, offices, vehicles, professions and all our on-line services. At the same time, information overload has started to rival some medical conditions!
All of this has also been compounded by two years of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions that have seen the normalisation of social isolation, limited travel, working and eduction from home, virtualised medicine and care, support services, shopping and meetings. In turn, this has resulted in empty offices, towns and cities. Concurently, climate change, global warming, pollution, finite resources, a stressed planetary system, and social unrest have suddenly become urgent issues. Against this backdrop it really seems to be time to revisit those Society 5.0 Visions and the limited linear thinking that contrived them!
In this presentation we examine many of the core parameters and assumptions to highlight existing, or soon to be realised, solutions and remedies. In doing so, a different picture of Society 5.0 emerges.
Managing cyber security
Despite a security landscape now embracing: People; Companies; Governments; Devices; Networks; Services; Vehicles; Properties; LAND; SEA; AIR; SPACE; CYBER and INFORMATION, people and organisations still tend to see all this as someone else problem. In reality, it concerns all of us. Governments can no longer protect their citizens and nor can any company IT/Security Dept!
“In an ideal world: responses to Cyber and Terror would be automated and immediate”
The Dark Side has grown rich and powerful by investing in R&D and the latest technology; adopting distributed team working and a global market for talent and resources; and they are winning this war with an estimated $1.5Tn income in 2019. We have to adopt the same strategies to survive let alone win. Global sharing and cooperation are key along with people, staff, management, board, NED and Chairman education/training/involvement. At this time it is rare to find a ‘Cyber Seat’ on the main board of any organization, but it is a new and critical essential!
A STATE OF MIND - Technology, Change, and Wellbeing
At some time(s) all of us will lose control; feel anxiety, anger, exposure, vulnerability, threatened, stress, depression, uncertainty, be forgetful, or be of ‘two minds’ and so on. Our behaviors will most likely be modulated, and even strange in some way for some period. But all this is normal and a key component of our physiology of survival, and it is generally transient lasting minutes, hours, or at worst a day or two. When such conditions last for many day or weeks or become episodic, we label them mental illness.
The treatment of mental illness sufferers throughout history has not been a happy story spanning; the possession by spirits and demons, to incarceration, and institutionalization to become objects of fun, entertainment, derision, neglect, and disrespect. In the developed world a deal of progress and enlightenment (in terms of base understanding and treatment) has now been established, but there are still marked differences between the older and younger generations, sub-cultures, religions, and belief systems.
The medical profession has come a long way, and their understanding and science are still advancing, but expertise is in chronically short supply. And so there is a universal plight shared between physical and mental health with a gross shortage of skilled practitioners and physical facilities. In reality, this shortfall cannot be overcome by traditional health models - there are simply insufficient people available to be trained and qualified into all the health professions. Our only hope then; is to turn to new technologies with a progressive migration of patients from a ‘Do It all For Me’ (DIFM) to a ‘Do It For Yourself’ (DIY)_culture and expectation.
This DIFM to DIY transition is getting well established for the physical health sector, but it is still in its infancy for mental patients. Both sectors suffer the irrational/uneducated/unthinking/virulent detractors, but the reality is - we have a very limited number of choices - and we can only move within the framework of the possible. But: it is worth noting that the mental health sector is far more of a ‘minefield’ than the physical precursors. And so we should advance and experiment with great care and be sure to involve patients as a member of the team as opposed to being mere subjects and pseudo ‘lab rats’.
“tread softly, lest you step upon my dreams”
The future of education: Solving Problems by Thinking
Education systems across the West have degenerated into a series of memory tests and the quest to hit abstract performance targets and measures. So students that appear well qualified are often unable to apply the most basic of mathematical, scientific, engineering or logical principles, and nor do they have a good appreciation of history or design. This does not bode well for a future of faster change and greater complexity.
“At the most basic level our society it is about the survival of the most adaptable”
For sure; today’s education and learning methodologies have to move toward more experimental and experiential working in order to reinforce the basics whilst engendering far greater understanding. Early specialism has also to be reversed with all students studying a broader range of topics through school and on into college and/or university.
“Education isn’t something you have to get done and dusted - it is a lifelong pursuit”
There is a further need to recognize that the (so-called) academic and practical streams are afforded equal importance! To get the best out of teams/groups all members have to share a common base of understanding and appreciation. In turn, this can be enabled and supported by Just-in-Time education and training-on-line. But there is much more….
Science and Engineering Out of The Box
Summary
There has never been a time in the history of our species that has seen such innovation and rapid progress; and we have never been so confounded by the world we have realized! For sure, we have crossed the Rubicon from a linear past to a non-linear future and find ourselves lacking many of the basic tools we need to fully address the major problems confronting us.
In such an environment we have to prepared to be ‘unreasonable’, to challenge established wisdom, conventions and practices. So in this session, I present three challenging cases that do just that:
1) Wireless Spectrum: It is infinite and there is no bandwidth crisis!
2) Cyber Security: We need auto-immune systems aka biology
3) Information War: The biggest threat to the survival of our species
INNOVATION FOR REAL
Until relatively recently our world was disconnected, stable, and slow to change. We saw linear innovation and commerce mostly resulting in well behaved and predictable outcomes. But all that has changed! Non-linearities introduced by networked technologies, people and organisations accelerated innovation, markets & change with emergent behaviours rapidly becoming the new norm. In turn, management, market & economic practices have seen adaptability adopted as a vital tool.
So rapid has been the rate of progress; no country, no matter how big, has all the materials, facilities, people, and innovation skills to meet demand. Our future therefore relies on the globalisation of everything including AI, robotics, production and innovation including human intellect and skills.
The IoT For Real
(Beyond simplistic thinking and models)
This lecture is one of a series ‘Grand Challenge Subjects’ designed to make students think beyond, and challenge, the status quo; to question what they have been taught and the established industry wisdoms; to look beyond the tech media and journal papers; to think, be original, and be creative in the widest sense. This all culminates in a design and build/project program spread over several weeks.
The notion that the IoT will see everything connecting via the internet using a wireless domain dominated by 5G is not only simplistic, it is fundamentally impossible. A moments thought and a few simple calculations reveal that there is not enough energy on the planet to power 50 - 250Bn or more IoT devices operating in such a mode. So how are we really going to design and engineer the IoT to become a workable proposition? Here are some clues:
3/4G: Carries <5% of all internet traffic; WiFi ~55%; Wired LANs @ 45%
Mobile Network coverage is sadly lacking @ <90% by geography
Mobile Device batteries and charging are major limitations
The internet consumes ~12% of all our energy
Mobile Devices consume ~ 1% and rising
Mobile Nets consume ~ 10%
None of the above takes into account the cost of raw materials, production, distribution, delivery, support, disposal and the ecological impact of civil engineering, equipments, and people.
During this lecture the following surprising conclusions quickly emerge:
Most IoT devices will talk to each other and never connect to the internet
IoT devices will require a range of bandwidths and not just low bit rates
The majority of IoT devices will communicate over very short distance
Our current wireless architectures are outmoded by the IoT
We will most likely need something beyond UWB
The power per IoT device has to be <<1mW
Security will demand auto-immunity
This then is the starting point; from here we can design and engineer solutions for an, as yet, unspecified and dimensioned IoT fit for this century.
Industry 4.0 and Sustainability
It was scientifically established in the 1970s that we are stressing the planet beyond the point where it can naturally recover. Today we are using about 50% more natural resources than can be extracted sustainably. The long history of industrialisation and population growth is now seeing climate change, extreme weather, and perhaps it is human overpopulation and terraforming that is now giving way to pandemics as we increasingly challenge and stress ecosystems.
Stressed systems react and fail in a variety of ways, and there is increasing evidence that CV-19 might just be the surprising product of human abuse of nature. What we can be certain of is that without action we will see more unpleasant and unwelcome surprises.
The Green Agenda is our biggest hope, but much of it is driven by emotion rather than deep thought, evidence, and scientific analysis. For example; recycling is mostly a fallacy and we need to think again! In reality Industry 4.0 is the first major program vested in the basics of long term sustainability.
In this presentation we give a brief overview of what I4.0 brings to the party by a focus on one major sector that is ripe for transformation. A much broader and wider treatment has been presented at previous events and numerous additional, associative, and supportive slide sets in this series are available on the web site.
Why Robots, AI, AL and Quantum Computing
Throughout our education and life we are mostly given a ‘soda-straw’ view of Maths, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, HealthCare, Business and Commerce that conditions us to ‘one concept at a time’ thinking. This is rife in Government and Politics, Industry and Health, and it has been extremely powerful in a now past slow paced and disconnected world. In fact, the speciation of disciplines, topics and problems has largely been responsible for the acceleration and prominence of human progress.
However; in a connected/networked, highly mobile, and tech driven world this simple and narrow minded view is insufficient and dangerous. In common parlance we refer to ‘unintended consequences’ whilst in complex system theory would use the term ‘emergent behaviours’. In brief; education, health, crime, productivity, GDP creation, social cohesion and stability cannot be considered independent variables/properties. They are all related and interdependent. For example; when politicians decide to starve the education system of funds for very young children the impact shows up in health, crime and the economy some 10 - 30 years later!
By analogy; all of this is true of our technologies, industries, lives, and the prospect of sustainable societies. Robots, AI, AL, and Quantum Computing do not stand alone in isolation, they have complementary roles. In this Public Lecture we devote an hour to thinking more holistically what these technologies bring to the party in the context of industry, health, society, sustainable societies and global warming. We then devote a further hour to discussion and debate.
In the context of Global Warming we make the following overriding observations:
“Panic is a poor substitute for thinking”
“Tech is the only exponential capability we enjoy”
“Technology is never a threat, but humans always are”
“Uncertainty always prescribes the precautionary principle”
Small data big impact
A Green Agenda cannot be fully realised by polishing our established industries and processes, or indeed minimalistic changes to manufacturing, production, and supply. We have to be far more holistic and radical! New materials and processes will get us part way there, but we also need the greater data oversight, analysis and management, provided by a fully deployed Internet of Things (IoT). In turn, this will require the application of Artificial Intelligence, Computer Modelling and War Gaming to provide the necessary guidance and decision support for machines and people.
Energy and material waste are definitely key components, but so are hyper-efficient Re-Use, Re-Purposing, and Re-Cycling with maximal material recovery at very low loss. And so, access to and analysis of, the Big and Small Data collected by networks and the IoT components is vital. For obvious reasons of unrealisable energy demands and network node densities, mobile networks and network technologies (such as 5G) cannot support such a vision and we can expect to see a migration to new network regimes where our machines, appliances, devices, vehicles, sea going containers, pallets, boxes, products and components communicate directly over very short distances in preference to using 3/4/5G and WiFi networks.
Many IoT components include sensors and access to information about their hosts; and this is vital to performance monitoring, timely maintenance and repair. Real time location, production, supply, use and ownership information will change the way we design, manufacture, supply and meet the needs of society at all levels from health, welfare, employment, education, industry, commerce, defence, and government. Many elements exist today, and more are under development, and in this presentation we bring together these core components.
Digital Destinies
Predicting digital futures a sector at a time is relatively easy, but in a networked world driven by accelerating technologies this is insufficient. Sectors do not operate in isolation, they are connected, and as technology advances the boundaries morph, with whole industries overtaken and pushed aside. At the same time old jobs lose relevance and new skills are required, but in aggregate ever more people are employed. Today there is no country, no matter how big or rich, that has all the raw materials and people required to power its industries, healthcare systems, farming and food production, or indeed educational institutions. Insourcing, outsourcing, and globalisation are the result, and they are about to be augmented by global networking of facilities, skills and abilities
We have never known or understood so much about our world, and nor have we enjoyed the capabilities bestowed by modern technology. But keeping up to date, acquiring the right knowledge and skills is a growing challenge as ‘the world of the simple’ evaporates and complexity takes over.
“There are plenty of simple solutions to complex problems, but they are all wrong”
Preparing for change whilst coping with the status quo now presents many new challenges way beyond human ability and we have to partner with machines to aid our decisions. For organisations it is essential to find and employ the right people, and for people it is necessary to become ever more flexible and adaptable whilst continually acquiring pertinent capabilities.
“AI and robots are not going to push us aside, but they will change everything”
No man is an island, and neither is any country, company or institution. A digital and connected global interdependency now governs the fortunes of our species as technology empowers us at every level. In this presentation we highlight a small sample of the technologies on the horizon, the jobs they will destroy, enhance and create.
AI The Call Center Nemesis?
Pundits and experts alike are predicting the demise of Call and Contact Centres at the hand of rapidly advancing AI systems, and it is easy to see why. Google have recently demonstrated remarkable gains in conversational AI used as a booking engine. At the same time, IBM Watson has demonstrated an encyclopedic knowledge and a reasonably sophisticated ability to debate. But could they all be wrong? For sure, Call/Contact Centres are far from ideal, but they replace other (older) modes that were even worse and we should take care not to throw the baby out with the bathwater!
WHY ROBOTICS, AI, AL & QUANTUM COMPUTING
It is not by accident that all these technologies appear to have come onto the scene at almost the same time. They are all driven, and or enabled, by the same hardware platforms based upon silicon with chip densities that now rival, or exceed, many biological lifeforms. Their ability to support increasingly complex software has seen AI and robotics become major industrial and medical tools. At the same time, Artificial Life is being applied in a more invisible manner, with Quantum Computing promising to change everything.
So why are these technologies so important? In short; they allow us to tackle and understand the most difficult problems facing our species. And all of these are complex, non-linear, with emergent properties that defy our mathematical and computing frameworks. Problems that are way beyond any biological brain include: protein folding; stem cell behaviours; drug interactions; the understanding of chemistry, biology, seismic activity, and weather systems, pollution and global warming; plus the creation of new materials, device, machine and building design.
Presented @ The University of Essex Innovation Centre for the IoD
It also turns out that they are essential for the creation of sustainable societies…
AI Trust and Safeguards
Presented @ The AI Summit, Olympia, London, 29 Nov 2017
In a world that is getting more connected and complex by the day, where we need to produce and distribute more at a lower and lower cost to the planet to achieve sustainability, we see the Japanese embracing robotics and AI with great confidence. They see both as part of the solution to many of their societal, care and industrial problems and limitations, and they assign some level of life quality to both.
Meanwhile, throughout the West a debate rages on the dangers, real and imaginary. These are mainly based on fear created by ignorance, the Hollywood Effect (eg Terminator and AI) bolstered by celebrities issuing warnings whilst that never having designed or operated an AI system!
So, what is the reality? Are there any real dangers? Of course, there always are with all new technologies, but as ever, engineers and scientists are continually reviewing what can and should be done. The reality is; the AI cat is well and truly out of the bag! It has already seen widespread deployments across manufacturing industry, transport, logistics, and of course the medical and care sectors. There is no going back, we are now totally dependant!
To date all of our AI has been ‘Narrow’ and simple; very limited and generally addressing a singular or single class of problem. We have IBM Watson in the lead with its breadth of analysis and diagnostic abilities, whilst Google AlphaGO is in the lead in the way it is able to learn games and processes sans human help. But in the next two phases leading to General (or Wide) AI we are heading toward true sentience, self awareness, and full autonomy of access and action.
This general trajectory is of some concern and the focus of this presentation. So, we examine the characteristics of each phase and the techniques that could be and are being developed and deployed to avert the much heralded ‘Destruction of the Human Race’ to come. In reality, military hunter killer robots are already being developed with some trials and deployments underway. As ever, AI and Robotic technologies have a huge upside, but potentially with a bigger that usual downside!
In reality, the real problem, threat and risks have little to do with the technologies, they are almost entirely in the hands of their human masters!
The Ethics of Engineering and Business
As a general rule engineers and scientists do not harbour any ambition to disadvantage their fellow man, quite the reverse! They get up every day with an ambition to improve the situation and do so against a backdrop of hard-earned truths, practices and physical laws. In effect; they come to the party with an ethical framework of investigation, experimentation, innovation, design, build, deploy and support! It is in their DNA; forged (tried and tested) over hundreds of years and one of the founding components of our technological advance and success. Without such discipline; such a framework; such experience and knowledge we would still be in the realms of Alchemy and Witchcraft!
Outside this sector, we see a far fuzzier, uncertain and ill-defined world of management that spans every human activity from companies to institutions, governments and the military. Here the rules of the game are far more uncertain and dynamic, and the ethical framework far less developed and clear.
In every domain we remain governed by human behaviours and fallibilities. And to err is human - that is; mistakes happen no matter what laws and frameworks are in place. Even if we are open, honest and ethical stuff still goes wrong! But overall our intent is to minimise the occurrence of damage, hurt, injury and death!
In this lecture and the associated series on management we lay out the essentials of professional ethics and give examples of classic fails. We also include exercises in ethics for students to engage and think through.
In the same way laws do not eradicate crime; ethics cannot stop all errors!
The Stadium Business - Technology of Engagement
For millennia people have been travelling to stadia to watch and participate in spectacles of pure brutality and sport sponsored by kings, emperors, states, individuals. Today sport and other entertainment events have become a major global business sector with executive facilities, commercial sponsorship, broadcast and full media coverage. But, in many respects, the crowds and their experience has changed little. However, technology is impacting this situation and looks set to accelerate the rate of change.
In a similar manner to the airline business; the few pay around 80% of the costs, whilst the many fulfil the 20% or so. All the attention is lavished on the few and the many are neglected and remain a latent opportunity. The technologies of communication, networking, apps, Big and Meta Data can change all this by creating a ‘market of one’. Satisfying the needs of every individual and every group should be pursued as it leads to a world of new services and ‘pre-selling’.
The technological opportunities are endless with augmented reality able to furnish a view from every angle to mobile devices and wearables supported by real time details, data and statistics. Clouds and ‘networks without infrastructure’ can overcome the limitations of 3, 4, 5G and wifi systems that will never satisfy the need for growing customer connectivity and bandwidth. They can also help solve entry congestion and simultaneously support security and vending operations. Branded mobile devices with pre-loaded apps are also an obvious step towards the creation of ‘The Club’ identity and ‘belonging’ that goes way beyond the latest strip, scarves and hats etc with far more kudos than a gold card!
“On a grand scale this all involves Big Data, but for a ‘market of one’ it is the Meta Data that counts - that is where the opportunity and the $$$ reside”
All of this comes at a price of management and operational change! Embracing the new takes a positive mind and considerable energy in the face of day to day operations, but the workforce and the customer base is also changing fast with the old and old of mind being replaced by the young and young of mind. The tech savvy are on the move and making up an increasing proportion of society - and the trick is to leverage their knowledge and abilities at every level possible.
“Change is inevitable and accelerating - and you have to decide to be a driver or a victim”
Big data to big understanding
Looking at a problem or data in isolation might have worked in a slow and disconnected past, but it is now a dangerous practice. The world is networked and Six Degrees of Separation have shrunk to 2 or 3 courtesy of the connectivity and networking of people, machines and things. Nothing is singular and isolated anymore, and establishing causality, future implications and likely outcomes is no longer simple or certain. Few systems can be treated as a Black Box with an input and an output related by some stable and linear function. Multiple inputs and outputs and stochastic transfer functions rule, and the resulting combinatorics confound us to the point where uncertainty is now the ‘uncomfortable’ norm!
Data mining is about drilling down to the fine detail in relatively small and contained data sets. A PC, spread sheets, structured data and simple analysis tools are the hallmarks of this domain. But Big Data is about the Big Picture, relationships, paths, and links which are way beyond the PC and simple tools. We are talking huge, sophisticated, fast evolving, and very specialised. It is already challenging many long held truths, discovering new ones, whilst revealing previously unknown relationships. The biggest problem is that we lack ‘Big Understanding’ or even the capacity to analyse and model situations to the point where clarity emerges. Our most powerful tools turn out to be computer modelling, simulation, Artificial Intelligence, and Visualisation.
Day on day our machine dependency grows as we tackle the vital Green, Social, Health, Science and Industry issues. We need the necessary wisdoms, we need the truths in order to make wise decisions that will impact future generations. So it is no accident that our Symbiosis with machines grows in hand with our abilities, but Big Data is no panacea, it is one of a raft of powerful new tools and should be seen so in our mission to gain better understanding and greater wisdom.
ICTON 2020 KeyNote: Evolving Network Security & Resilience
We are living through an extraordinary pandemic (CV-19) that has changed all the network norms including the way we work and communicate. An invisible consequence has been the transformation of internet and telecoms traffic promoted by people working from home, restrictions on all travel and a paralysis of almost all social norms. Living and working in isolation for 3 - 5 months has become the new mode for many, and even the most technophobic have had to turned to video conferencing and on-line purchases to ‘survive’
From a network point of view the transition has seen the concentrations of traffic in major cities and towns mutate to the dispersed and disparate working, social and entertainment activities that have found the last mile wanting. Insufficient bandwidth connectivity and resilience have quickly become a prime concern with the overloading of core networks a lesser concern.
Installing new optical links and making the core (undersea and overland long-lines) networks more robust is relatively easy as they are by far the most resilient and secure of our infrastructures. It is the local loop, our last mile, that poses the hard to fix problem. In this session we present tested model solutions based on direct ‘dark-fibre’ to home and office with no electronics, splitters or access points in the field. This is augmented by Mesh-Nets and 4/5G providing temporary bridges for random fibre breaks and cable damage.
TEDx Brixton 2014 Tech Turmoil to Come
In a rapidly changing world of growing demand and diminishing resources merely polishing our old technologies and making industrial processes ever more efficient only delays the onset of crisis and collapse - it does not solve the fundamental problem. Sustainable futures are inextricably linked to radical change and the creation of new technologies based on new materials, processing, shaping, use, reuse, repurposing and recycling at minimal loss.
So we look to the intersection of Artificial Intelligence, Nano and Bio-Technology to demonstrate advances are being made, and where the biggest societal changes will originate. We take a deep dive into the realm of human replacement and augmentation by machine, and the likely implications for individuals, groups, society, companies, institutions and governments.
Fibre broadband futures
Since 1986 a global debate has raged on copper or fibre in the local loop, and despite all the evidence the copper heads have pursued a path of survival at any cost with outrageous claims of what they can deliver. With claims of ‘up-to’ download speeds and homes passed (not connected), and crosstalk induced asymmetry they have never delivered what was said on the tin. And worst, with great temerity they insist on dictating to customers as to the bandwidth they really need.
We have now (probably) reached a peak of the lunacy with FTTCabinet/Kerb and pole top G.Fast developers claiming speeds of 1,000Mbit/s delivered. They can no more deliver such speeds than 10Mbit/s unless it is over impractically short spans. You can deliver 10Gbit/s over 5m of twisted pair or 100Gbit/s over 1m, but it aint of much practical use. In contrast optical fibre can deliver 1, 10, 100 Gbit/s over 100km using <10% of the energy demanded by copper.
So in November 2015 I attended my 100th conference/seminar/meeting on the topic to explain that the world is now bifurcating into those with Gbit/s fibre in the local loop and those who are sticking with copper. City and community wide FTTH is rolling out in a frenzy of frustration with the incumbent telco copperheads who continue their futile quest to squeeze the last micro-gram out of their 150 year old technologies. Only fibre is green, only fibre is future proof, only fibre is economic, and only fibre can support future business, Cloud Computing, The IoT, Smart Cities, and the 3,4,5G infill needed into the future.
It is all obvious, but here we go again! Will the UK be a world leader or laggard, in the first division, or at the back of the pack? There is a lot at stake. The first to roll out FTTH was BY in 1990, but government ignorance saw the program closed down and since then the GDP has suffered with lost business and the emigration of young start ups. But all that is insignificant compared with what is to come!
The easiest and most sensible route out of the ‘gotcha’ is to let the companies do as they wish, but empower towns and cities to install dark fibre nets, and to provide assistive funding to villages and communities to DIY Fibre. This is happening by default, but it needs to be accelerated by a modest capital investment.
Small data big impact
Data mining and analysis has been dominated by the big looking at the small. Businesses, institutions and governments examine our habits with an eye to commercial opportunities, welfare, and security. However, big data is migrating analysis into the arena of networking and association to enhance services: advertising, ‘pre-selling,’ healthcare, security and tax avoidance reduction. But this leaves the critical arena of Small Data unaddressed - the small looking at the small - individuals and things examining and exploiting their own data.
Here we consider a future of ubiquitous tagging, sensors, measuring and networked monitoring powered by the IoT. Key conclusions see many devices talking to each other at close range with little (or no) need of internet connection, and more network connections generated between things than those on the net.
Work or Play
There was a time when Bell Boys would bring you a printed message from the electric telegraph; when a telephone operator would ask you for the number; when a typist would type your letter; when the Xerox operator would create your copies; when the computer operator would load and run your program; and when a secretary would organise your mail. Those days and those jobs are long gone, but at the time the concern was; what would these people do when they came redundant ? In reality all these people found employment as new jobs were created at the behest of new technologies. Web designers, CAD experts, IT specialists, data analysts, spread sheet drivers and many more replaced the old to the point of staffing shortages. Perhaps more poignantly; we are all now the bell boys, telephone operators, typists, printers, copiers, computer operators and secretaries - empowered by the self same technologies!
Today we see a global shortfall of some 200,000 Big data analysts complemented by similar needs for specialists and experts in Artificial Intelligence, Business Modelling, Decision Support Systems, 3D Printing, Genomics; Nano Tech and more. And there is a huge demand for people with the ‘hands on’ skills to design, build, repair and fix just about everything. The reality is that many of the people in these spheres derived their base skills through play. Wasting their young lives on a screen playing computer games, searching the web, hacking code, ‘building stuff’ and more turned out to be their springboard to employment and personal prosperity. But this presents companies and managers with many new challenges as they find it difficult to let go of the old and embrace the new.
Hierarchies and old management methods might just work for industries that are static and churning out the same product day after day, but for those facing rapid change and unpredictable demands, then agility and flexibility are ket, and that demands low flat structures with new and autonomous ways of working…
Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure
The internet will not scale to support >7Bn people and >50Bn things on line, but Clouds and Networks Without Infrastructure will, and they are neither singular nor static. Clouds are entirely dynamic and multi-modal with; public, private, personal, open, closed, government and commercial clouds that are fixed, mobile, long and short lived, permanent and transitory. In addition the new degrees of freedom that Clouds afford makes them inherently more secure and resilient than any network medium we have created before. But, not all clouds are equal, and neither is all data!
The era of IT Departments providing centralised networking and security is drawing to a rapid close in the same way that sitting in front of a PC in an office all day is becoming unworkable. So, it is time to rethink what has to change in order to adapt to rapidly growing BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) and BMOB (Be My Own Boss) cultures. At the same time, ecological, social, commercial and technology demands are pushing toward more and smaller devices, the tagging and tracking of everything, whilst using less material and energy. This all demands more wireless and new modes of networking demanding more optical fibre especially in the last mile where Point to Point systems will replace the outmoded BPON and GPON technologies of the past. In this symmetric wide bandwidth future there is no place or part to plat by the old copper local loop technologies, and the mobile operators @ 3,4,5G will be further relegated to transporting < 1% of the total traffic of the future connected world. New species of WiFi and BlueTooth will emerge to dominate mobile connectivity and transport with the short range hops to a vastly increased number of fibre fed hot spots in room, on floor, in building, and on campus.
Connect, communicate, collaborate
No company, institution, government or agency can afford to contain and maintain all the resources they need in house. In a connected and fast changing world those needs are not static, they are dynamic and fast changing. So, outsourcing and insourcing, flexible working, BYOD, Social Networking, Open Access and Apps have become essential to flexibility and adaptability. But, perhaps more importantly ‘collaboration’ provides a prime element to success, that spans most sectors across the planet.
The various modes and tools of eCollaboration between people are well documented including: audio and video conferencing, connected white boards and meeting spaces are perhaps the most common. But there is far more when we include machines. People use and collaborate with machines at all levels, but increasingly the machines are autonomously collaborating.
“When things think, they want to link”
The inclusion of intelligence and smarts sees everything from our mobile devices to laptops, PCs, MainFrames and Super Computers starting to engage in cooperation and invisible conversations. The Cloud is amplifying this to our advantage with a growing range of apps backed up with distributed data, resources, networking, computing power and intelligences. Truth Engines and Intelligent Search and Find are also being developed to make available a range of new (easy to use) group and profession specific apps.
Most of us seem to spend more time locating information and the right people, than we devote to being creative and finding solutions. Our biggest challenge is to understand (in a shorter and shorter time frame), find the appropriate skill cells and get them all to come together as an effective team.
“The power to convene is both rare and coveted”
The old ways of working are falling by the wayside in the leading companies operating in the fastest moving sectors, whilst nothing much is happening (yet) at the other end of the market spectrum. But in this 21C the winners will be the global teams that connect, network and collaborate to maximise there creativity, and become the primary creators and solution finders.
Future of work.compressed
For millennia people worked in relative stability with industries sustained by very little change for hundreds of years. Even the industrial revolution saw a high degree of stability after the initial disruption. Mining, foundries, railways, shipping, mills etc employed thousands for a lifetime. This saw the creation of new towns and cities dedicated to major industries and gave rise to the illusion of job security - a notion that persists in many political minds today.
In <50 years that heritage has been swept away by technology and globalisation. The future now belongs to the mobile, the connected, the networkers and the most adaptable. A lifetimes employment in one job in one sector living in one place is rare. Even mining and agriculture are increasingly automated to require fewer people with less muscle and more tech skills. And while the media feature the destruction of jobs and a total takeover by the machines, the empirical evidence shows a growing number of vacancies for the skilled and those educated to adapt to the new needs of an age of robotics and artificial intelligence.
Everybody, every society and country, now face significant challenges in the need to change and adapt to technological advance….
“ Exactly like Mother Nature and biological evolution, technological evolution shows no compassion and no care - it really is about the survival of the most adaptable”
Diy (Health) Care
Throughout the developed world healthcare systems are creaking and failing to deliver what is expected by ageing and ailing populations. From the richest to the poorest of nations in this group, spend is going up, but failure is not being arrested. Three key mechanisms are the cause: First technology and the resulting advances in medicine are keeping us alive longer; Second the number of people needing care is rising rapidly and so is their individual expectation; Thirdly the dominant mode of death has migrated from a ‘simple, sudden, and unexpected event’ in the 1940/50s to a ‘protracted and complex series of physical and mental failure mechanisms’ in the 2000s.
“Death’s harbinger now moves slowly and very visibly amongst us”
Spending ever more money and employing ever more people is not the answer! A new model is required where we as individuals leverage all the available resources to take charge of our own health. We have to minimise the risks and be prepared to manage our minds and bodies should a failure mechanism strike. In the same way technology empowered us by affording new skills, facilities and capabilities, it can now lend support to our lives at every stage. But our actions have to be part of a three pronged approach: healthier lifestyles; day-to-day monitoring of vital body functions and regular medical checks; rapid diagnostics and remedial action. The necessary technology enablers are now within the grasp of everyone should they so choose.
The migration of medical facilities, skills, and equipment has always been: Hospital to Health Centre to Doctors Office to Our Bathroom Cabinet. But it was extremely slow! It is now accelerating with some aspects appearing to be in reverse gear! Mobiles, wearables, apps, testers, and on-line facilities often outgun Doctors and Hospitals in their ability to measure and monitor us 24x7 whilst we continue our daily lives. But, the revolution in sensors, genomics, robotics, and more, is about to amplify this trend…
Technologies That Will Change Everything
For millennia we have crafted artifacts from bulk materials that we have progressively refined to produce ever more precision tools and products. Latterly, we have crossed a critical threshold where our abilities now eclipse Mother Nature. For example; the smallest transistors in production today have feature sizes down to 2nm which is smaller than a biological virus ~20 - 200nm. The implications for ITC, AI, Robotics, and Production are ever more profound as we approach, and most likely undercut, the scale of the atom ~ 0.1-0.4nm. Not only does this open the door to new technologies, it sees new and remarkable capabilities. So, in this presentation we look at this new Tech Horizon spanning robotics to quantum computing and sensory technologies, and how they will help us realise sustainable futures germane to Industry 4.0, 5.0, and beyond.
Technology Overlords Or A Symbiosis ?
When people are exposed to the new for the first time their reaction, quite rightly, is generally one of caution and perhaps a degree of suspicion. And, when that ‘new born’ is a novel technology, reactions can quickly become amplified and biased toward the dystopian by the sensationalism of media and mis-information of social networks. In this modern era I think we can also safely assume that Hollywood has more than a ‘bit part’ in nurturing extreme reactions with movies such as Terminator, AI and Ex-Machina.
Our purpose here is to dispel the modern myth that technology is, or can be, inherently evil and a direct threat to humanity. We do so by positing three basic axioms:
“Without technology we would know and understand
almost nothing”
“The greatest threat to humanity is humanity”
“If technology progress and societal advance stall, then civilisations collapse”
Having briefly establishing these in the context of our wider history, we focus on the Industrial Revolutions and their beneficial upside and consequential negatives. We then move on to examine Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Artificial Life, and Quantum Computing in the context of our current needs and realising sustainable futures, and the survival of our civilisation.
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The IoT For Real
(Beyond simplistic thinking and models)
This lecture is one of a series ‘Grand Challenge Subjects’ designed to make students think beyond, and challenge, the status quo; to question what they have been taught and the established industry wisdoms; to look beyond the tech media and journal papers; to think, be original, and be creative in the widest sense. This all culminates in a design and build/project program spread over several weeks.
The notion that the IoT will see everything connecting via the internet using a wireless domain dominated by 5G is not only simplistic, it is fundamentally impossible. A moments thought and a few simple calculations reveal that there is not enough energy on the planet to power 50 - 250Bn or more IoT devices operating in such a mode. So how are we really going to design and engineer the IoT to become a workable proposition? Here are some clues:
3/4G: Carries <5% of all internet traffic; WiFi ~55%; Wired LANs @ 45%
Mobile Network coverage is sadly lacking @ <90% by geography
Mobile Device batteries and charging are major limitations
The internet consumes ~12% of all our energy
Mobile Devices consume ~ 1% and rising
Mobile Nets consume ~ 10%
None of the above takes into account the cost of raw materials, production, distribution, delivery, support, disposal and the ecological impact of civil engineering, equipments, and people.
During this lecture the following surprising conclusions quickly emerge:
Most IoT devices will talk to each other and never connect to the internet
IoT devices will require a range of bandwidths and not just low bit rates
The majority of IoT devices will communicate over very short distance
Our current wireless architectures are outmoded by the IoT
We will most likely need something beyond UWB
The power per IoT device has to be <<1mW
Security will demand auto-immunity
This then is the starting point; from here we can design and engineer solutions for an, as yet, unspecified and dimensioned IoT fit for this century.
Industry 4.0 and Sustainability
It was scientifically established in the 1970s that we are stressing the planet beyond the point where it can naturally recover. Today we are using about 50% more natural resources than can be extracted sustainably. The long history of industrialisation and population growth is now seeing climate change, extreme weather, and perhaps it is human overpopulation and terraforming that is now giving way to pandemics as we increasingly challenge and stress ecosystems.
Stressed systems react and fail in a variety of ways, and there is increasing evidence that CV-19 might just be the surprising product of human abuse of nature. What we can be certain of is that without action we will see more unpleasant and unwelcome surprises.
The Green Agenda is our biggest hope, but much of it is driven by emotion rather than deep thought, evidence, and scientific analysis. For example; recycling is mostly a fallacy and we need to think again! In reality Industry 4.0 is the first major program vested in the basics of long term sustainability.
In this presentation we give a brief overview of what I4.0 brings to the party by a focus on one major sector that is ripe for transformation. A much broader and wider treatment has been presented at previous events and numerous additional, associative, and supportive slide sets in this series are available on the web site.
Why Robots, AI, AL and Quantum Computing
Throughout our education and life we are mostly given a ‘soda-straw’ view of Maths, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, HealthCare, Business and Commerce that conditions us to ‘one concept at a time’ thinking. This is rife in Government and Politics, Industry and Health, and it has been extremely powerful in a now past slow paced and disconnected world. In fact, the speciation of disciplines, topics and problems has largely been responsible for the acceleration and prominence of human progress.
However; in a connected/networked, highly mobile, and tech driven world this simple and narrow minded view is insufficient and dangerous. In common parlance we refer to ‘unintended consequences’ whilst in complex system theory would use the term ‘emergent behaviours’. In brief; education, health, crime, productivity, GDP creation, social cohesion and stability cannot be considered independent variables/properties. They are all related and interdependent. For example; when politicians decide to starve the education system of funds for very young children the impact shows up in health, crime and the economy some 10 - 30 years later!
By analogy; all of this is true of our technologies, industries, lives, and the prospect of sustainable societies. Robots, AI, AL, and Quantum Computing do not stand alone in isolation, they have complementary roles. In this Public Lecture we devote an hour to thinking more holistically what these technologies bring to the party in the context of industry, health, society, sustainable societies and global warming. We then devote a further hour to discussion and debate.
In the context of Global Warming we make the following overriding observations:
“Panic is a poor substitute for thinking”
“Tech is the only exponential capability we enjoy”
“Technology is never a threat, but humans always are”
“Uncertainty always prescribes the precautionary principle”
Small data big impact
A Green Agenda cannot be fully realised by polishing our established industries and processes, or indeed minimalistic changes to manufacturing, production, and supply. We have to be far more holistic and radical! New materials and processes will get us part way there, but we also need the greater data oversight, analysis and management, provided by a fully deployed Internet of Things (IoT). In turn, this will require the application of Artificial Intelligence, Computer Modelling and War Gaming to provide the necessary guidance and decision support for machines and people.
Energy and material waste are definitely key components, but so are hyper-efficient Re-Use, Re-Purposing, and Re-Cycling with maximal material recovery at very low loss. And so, access to and analysis of, the Big and Small Data collected by networks and the IoT components is vital. For obvious reasons of unrealisable energy demands and network node densities, mobile networks and network technologies (such as 5G) cannot support such a vision and we can expect to see a migration to new network regimes where our machines, appliances, devices, vehicles, sea going containers, pallets, boxes, products and components communicate directly over very short distances in preference to using 3/4/5G and WiFi networks.
Many IoT components include sensors and access to information about their hosts; and this is vital to performance monitoring, timely maintenance and repair. Real time location, production, supply, use and ownership information will change the way we design, manufacture, supply and meet the needs of society at all levels from health, welfare, employment, education, industry, commerce, defence, and government. Many elements exist today, and more are under development, and in this presentation we bring together these core components.
Digital Destinies
Predicting digital futures a sector at a time is relatively easy, but in a networked world driven by accelerating technologies this is insufficient. Sectors do not operate in isolation, they are connected, and as technology advances the boundaries morph, with whole industries overtaken and pushed aside. At the same time old jobs lose relevance and new skills are required, but in aggregate ever more people are employed. Today there is no country, no matter how big or rich, that has all the raw materials and people required to power its industries, healthcare systems, farming and food production, or indeed educational institutions. Insourcing, outsourcing, and globalisation are the result, and they are about to be augmented by global networking of facilities, skills and abilities
We have never known or understood so much about our world, and nor have we enjoyed the capabilities bestowed by modern technology. But keeping up to date, acquiring the right knowledge and skills is a growing challenge as ‘the world of the simple’ evaporates and complexity takes over.
“There are plenty of simple solutions to complex problems, but they are all wrong”
Preparing for change whilst coping with the status quo now presents many new challenges way beyond human ability and we have to partner with machines to aid our decisions. For organisations it is essential to find and employ the right people, and for people it is necessary to become ever more flexible and adaptable whilst continually acquiring pertinent capabilities.
“AI and robots are not going to push us aside, but they will change everything”
No man is an island, and neither is any country, company or institution. A digital and connected global interdependency now governs the fortunes of our species as technology empowers us at every level. In this presentation we highlight a small sample of the technologies on the horizon, the jobs they will destroy, enhance and create.
AI The Call Center Nemesis?
Pundits and experts alike are predicting the demise of Call and Contact Centres at the hand of rapidly advancing AI systems, and it is easy to see why. Google have recently demonstrated remarkable gains in conversational AI used as a booking engine. At the same time, IBM Watson has demonstrated an encyclopedic knowledge and a reasonably sophisticated ability to debate. But could they all be wrong? For sure, Call/Contact Centres are far from ideal, but they replace other (older) modes that were even worse and we should take care not to throw the baby out with the bathwater!
WHY ROBOTICS, AI, AL & QUANTUM COMPUTING
It is not by accident that all these technologies appear to have come onto the scene at almost the same time. They are all driven, and or enabled, by the same hardware platforms based upon silicon with chip densities that now rival, or exceed, many biological lifeforms. Their ability to support increasingly complex software has seen AI and robotics become major industrial and medical tools. At the same time, Artificial Life is being applied in a more invisible manner, with Quantum Computing promising to change everything.
So why are these technologies so important? In short; they allow us to tackle and understand the most difficult problems facing our species. And all of these are complex, non-linear, with emergent properties that defy our mathematical and computing frameworks. Problems that are way beyond any biological brain include: protein folding; stem cell behaviours; drug interactions; the understanding of chemistry, biology, seismic activity, and weather systems, pollution and global warming; plus the creation of new materials, device, machine and building design.
Presented @ The University of Essex Innovation Centre for the IoD
It also turns out that they are essential for the creation of sustainable societies…
AI Trust and Safeguards
Presented @ The AI Summit, Olympia, London, 29 Nov 2017
In a world that is getting more connected and complex by the day, where we need to produce and distribute more at a lower and lower cost to the planet to achieve sustainability, we see the Japanese embracing robotics and AI with great confidence. They see both as part of the solution to many of their societal, care and industrial problems and limitations, and they assign some level of life quality to both.
Meanwhile, throughout the West a debate rages on the dangers, real and imaginary. These are mainly based on fear created by ignorance, the Hollywood Effect (eg Terminator and AI) bolstered by celebrities issuing warnings whilst that never having designed or operated an AI system!
So, what is the reality? Are there any real dangers? Of course, there always are with all new technologies, but as ever, engineers and scientists are continually reviewing what can and should be done. The reality is; the AI cat is well and truly out of the bag! It has already seen widespread deployments across manufacturing industry, transport, logistics, and of course the medical and care sectors. There is no going back, we are now totally dependant!
To date all of our AI has been ‘Narrow’ and simple; very limited and generally addressing a singular or single class of problem. We have IBM Watson in the lead with its breadth of analysis and diagnostic abilities, whilst Google AlphaGO is in the lead in the way it is able to learn games and processes sans human help. But in the next two phases leading to General (or Wide) AI we are heading toward true sentience, self awareness, and full autonomy of access and action.
This general trajectory is of some concern and the focus of this presentation. So, we examine the characteristics of each phase and the techniques that could be and are being developed and deployed to avert the much heralded ‘Destruction of the Human Race’ to come. In reality, military hunter killer robots are already being developed with some trials and deployments underway. As ever, AI and Robotic technologies have a huge upside, but potentially with a bigger that usual downside!
In reality, the real problem, threat and risks have little to do with the technologies, they are almost entirely in the hands of their human masters!
The Ethics of Engineering and Business
As a general rule engineers and scientists do not harbour any ambition to disadvantage their fellow man, quite the reverse! They get up every day with an ambition to improve the situation and do so against a backdrop of hard-earned truths, practices and physical laws. In effect; they come to the party with an ethical framework of investigation, experimentation, innovation, design, build, deploy and support! It is in their DNA; forged (tried and tested) over hundreds of years and one of the founding components of our technological advance and success. Without such discipline; such a framework; such experience and knowledge we would still be in the realms of Alchemy and Witchcraft!
Outside this sector, we see a far fuzzier, uncertain and ill-defined world of management that spans every human activity from companies to institutions, governments and the military. Here the rules of the game are far more uncertain and dynamic, and the ethical framework far less developed and clear.
In every domain we remain governed by human behaviours and fallibilities. And to err is human - that is; mistakes happen no matter what laws and frameworks are in place. Even if we are open, honest and ethical stuff still goes wrong! But overall our intent is to minimise the occurrence of damage, hurt, injury and death!
In this lecture and the associated series on management we lay out the essentials of professional ethics and give examples of classic fails. We also include exercises in ethics for students to engage and think through.
In the same way laws do not eradicate crime; ethics cannot stop all errors!
The Stadium Business - Technology of Engagement
For millennia people have been travelling to stadia to watch and participate in spectacles of pure brutality and sport sponsored by kings, emperors, states, individuals. Today sport and other entertainment events have become a major global business sector with executive facilities, commercial sponsorship, broadcast and full media coverage. But, in many respects, the crowds and their experience has changed little. However, technology is impacting this situation and looks set to accelerate the rate of change.
In a similar manner to the airline business; the few pay around 80% of the costs, whilst the many fulfil the 20% or so. All the attention is lavished on the few and the many are neglected and remain a latent opportunity. The technologies of communication, networking, apps, Big and Meta Data can change all this by creating a ‘market of one’. Satisfying the needs of every individual and every group should be pursued as it leads to a world of new services and ‘pre-selling’.
The technological opportunities are endless with augmented reality able to furnish a view from every angle to mobile devices and wearables supported by real time details, data and statistics. Clouds and ‘networks without infrastructure’ can overcome the limitations of 3, 4, 5G and wifi systems that will never satisfy the need for growing customer connectivity and bandwidth. They can also help solve entry congestion and simultaneously support security and vending operations. Branded mobile devices with pre-loaded apps are also an obvious step towards the creation of ‘The Club’ identity and ‘belonging’ that goes way beyond the latest strip, scarves and hats etc with far more kudos than a gold card!
“On a grand scale this all involves Big Data, but for a ‘market of one’ it is the Meta Data that counts - that is where the opportunity and the $$$ reside”
All of this comes at a price of management and operational change! Embracing the new takes a positive mind and considerable energy in the face of day to day operations, but the workforce and the customer base is also changing fast with the old and old of mind being replaced by the young and young of mind. The tech savvy are on the move and making up an increasing proportion of society - and the trick is to leverage their knowledge and abilities at every level possible.
“Change is inevitable and accelerating - and you have to decide to be a driver or a victim”
Big data to big understanding
Looking at a problem or data in isolation might have worked in a slow and disconnected past, but it is now a dangerous practice. The world is networked and Six Degrees of Separation have shrunk to 2 or 3 courtesy of the connectivity and networking of people, machines and things. Nothing is singular and isolated anymore, and establishing causality, future implications and likely outcomes is no longer simple or certain. Few systems can be treated as a Black Box with an input and an output related by some stable and linear function. Multiple inputs and outputs and stochastic transfer functions rule, and the resulting combinatorics confound us to the point where uncertainty is now the ‘uncomfortable’ norm!
Data mining is about drilling down to the fine detail in relatively small and contained data sets. A PC, spread sheets, structured data and simple analysis tools are the hallmarks of this domain. But Big Data is about the Big Picture, relationships, paths, and links which are way beyond the PC and simple tools. We are talking huge, sophisticated, fast evolving, and very specialised. It is already challenging many long held truths, discovering new ones, whilst revealing previously unknown relationships. The biggest problem is that we lack ‘Big Understanding’ or even the capacity to analyse and model situations to the point where clarity emerges. Our most powerful tools turn out to be computer modelling, simulation, Artificial Intelligence, and Visualisation.
Day on day our machine dependency grows as we tackle the vital Green, Social, Health, Science and Industry issues. We need the necessary wisdoms, we need the truths in order to make wise decisions that will impact future generations. So it is no accident that our Symbiosis with machines grows in hand with our abilities, but Big Data is no panacea, it is one of a raft of powerful new tools and should be seen so in our mission to gain better understanding and greater wisdom.
ICTON 2020 KeyNote: Evolving Network Security & Resilience
We are living through an extraordinary pandemic (CV-19) that has changed all the network norms including the way we work and communicate. An invisible consequence has been the transformation of internet and telecoms traffic promoted by people working from home, restrictions on all travel and a paralysis of almost all social norms. Living and working in isolation for 3 - 5 months has become the new mode for many, and even the most technophobic have had to turned to video conferencing and on-line purchases to ‘survive’
From a network point of view the transition has seen the concentrations of traffic in major cities and towns mutate to the dispersed and disparate working, social and entertainment activities that have found the last mile wanting. Insufficient bandwidth connectivity and resilience have quickly become a prime concern with the overloading of core networks a lesser concern.
Installing new optical links and making the core (undersea and overland long-lines) networks more robust is relatively easy as they are by far the most resilient and secure of our infrastructures. It is the local loop, our last mile, that poses the hard to fix problem. In this session we present tested model solutions based on direct ‘dark-fibre’ to home and office with no electronics, splitters or access points in the field. This is augmented by Mesh-Nets and 4/5G providing temporary bridges for random fibre breaks and cable damage.
TEDx Brixton 2014 Tech Turmoil to Come
In a rapidly changing world of growing demand and diminishing resources merely polishing our old technologies and making industrial processes ever more efficient only delays the onset of crisis and collapse - it does not solve the fundamental problem. Sustainable futures are inextricably linked to radical change and the creation of new technologies based on new materials, processing, shaping, use, reuse, repurposing and recycling at minimal loss.
So we look to the intersection of Artificial Intelligence, Nano and Bio-Technology to demonstrate advances are being made, and where the biggest societal changes will originate. We take a deep dive into the realm of human replacement and augmentation by machine, and the likely implications for individuals, groups, society, companies, institutions and governments.
Fibre broadband futures
Since 1986 a global debate has raged on copper or fibre in the local loop, and despite all the evidence the copper heads have pursued a path of survival at any cost with outrageous claims of what they can deliver. With claims of ‘up-to’ download speeds and homes passed (not connected), and crosstalk induced asymmetry they have never delivered what was said on the tin. And worst, with great temerity they insist on dictating to customers as to the bandwidth they really need.
We have now (probably) reached a peak of the lunacy with FTTCabinet/Kerb and pole top G.Fast developers claiming speeds of 1,000Mbit/s delivered. They can no more deliver such speeds than 10Mbit/s unless it is over impractically short spans. You can deliver 10Gbit/s over 5m of twisted pair or 100Gbit/s over 1m, but it aint of much practical use. In contrast optical fibre can deliver 1, 10, 100 Gbit/s over 100km using <10% of the energy demanded by copper.
So in November 2015 I attended my 100th conference/seminar/meeting on the topic to explain that the world is now bifurcating into those with Gbit/s fibre in the local loop and those who are sticking with copper. City and community wide FTTH is rolling out in a frenzy of frustration with the incumbent telco copperheads who continue their futile quest to squeeze the last micro-gram out of their 150 year old technologies. Only fibre is green, only fibre is future proof, only fibre is economic, and only fibre can support future business, Cloud Computing, The IoT, Smart Cities, and the 3,4,5G infill needed into the future.
It is all obvious, but here we go again! Will the UK be a world leader or laggard, in the first division, or at the back of the pack? There is a lot at stake. The first to roll out FTTH was BY in 1990, but government ignorance saw the program closed down and since then the GDP has suffered with lost business and the emigration of young start ups. But all that is insignificant compared with what is to come!
The easiest and most sensible route out of the ‘gotcha’ is to let the companies do as they wish, but empower towns and cities to install dark fibre nets, and to provide assistive funding to villages and communities to DIY Fibre. This is happening by default, but it needs to be accelerated by a modest capital investment.
Small data big impact
Data mining and analysis has been dominated by the big looking at the small. Businesses, institutions and governments examine our habits with an eye to commercial opportunities, welfare, and security. However, big data is migrating analysis into the arena of networking and association to enhance services: advertising, ‘pre-selling,’ healthcare, security and tax avoidance reduction. But this leaves the critical arena of Small Data unaddressed - the small looking at the small - individuals and things examining and exploiting their own data.
Here we consider a future of ubiquitous tagging, sensors, measuring and networked monitoring powered by the IoT. Key conclusions see many devices talking to each other at close range with little (or no) need of internet connection, and more network connections generated between things than those on the net.
Work or Play
There was a time when Bell Boys would bring you a printed message from the electric telegraph; when a telephone operator would ask you for the number; when a typist would type your letter; when the Xerox operator would create your copies; when the computer operator would load and run your program; and when a secretary would organise your mail. Those days and those jobs are long gone, but at the time the concern was; what would these people do when they came redundant ? In reality all these people found employment as new jobs were created at the behest of new technologies. Web designers, CAD experts, IT specialists, data analysts, spread sheet drivers and many more replaced the old to the point of staffing shortages. Perhaps more poignantly; we are all now the bell boys, telephone operators, typists, printers, copiers, computer operators and secretaries - empowered by the self same technologies!
Today we see a global shortfall of some 200,000 Big data analysts complemented by similar needs for specialists and experts in Artificial Intelligence, Business Modelling, Decision Support Systems, 3D Printing, Genomics; Nano Tech and more. And there is a huge demand for people with the ‘hands on’ skills to design, build, repair and fix just about everything. The reality is that many of the people in these spheres derived their base skills through play. Wasting their young lives on a screen playing computer games, searching the web, hacking code, ‘building stuff’ and more turned out to be their springboard to employment and personal prosperity. But this presents companies and managers with many new challenges as they find it difficult to let go of the old and embrace the new.
Hierarchies and old management methods might just work for industries that are static and churning out the same product day after day, but for those facing rapid change and unpredictable demands, then agility and flexibility are ket, and that demands low flat structures with new and autonomous ways of working…
Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure
The internet will not scale to support >7Bn people and >50Bn things on line, but Clouds and Networks Without Infrastructure will, and they are neither singular nor static. Clouds are entirely dynamic and multi-modal with; public, private, personal, open, closed, government and commercial clouds that are fixed, mobile, long and short lived, permanent and transitory. In addition the new degrees of freedom that Clouds afford makes them inherently more secure and resilient than any network medium we have created before. But, not all clouds are equal, and neither is all data!
The era of IT Departments providing centralised networking and security is drawing to a rapid close in the same way that sitting in front of a PC in an office all day is becoming unworkable. So, it is time to rethink what has to change in order to adapt to rapidly growing BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) and BMOB (Be My Own Boss) cultures. At the same time, ecological, social, commercial and technology demands are pushing toward more and smaller devices, the tagging and tracking of everything, whilst using less material and energy. This all demands more wireless and new modes of networking demanding more optical fibre especially in the last mile where Point to Point systems will replace the outmoded BPON and GPON technologies of the past. In this symmetric wide bandwidth future there is no place or part to plat by the old copper local loop technologies, and the mobile operators @ 3,4,5G will be further relegated to transporting < 1% of the total traffic of the future connected world. New species of WiFi and BlueTooth will emerge to dominate mobile connectivity and transport with the short range hops to a vastly increased number of fibre fed hot spots in room, on floor, in building, and on campus.
Connect, communicate, collaborate
No company, institution, government or agency can afford to contain and maintain all the resources they need in house. In a connected and fast changing world those needs are not static, they are dynamic and fast changing. So, outsourcing and insourcing, flexible working, BYOD, Social Networking, Open Access and Apps have become essential to flexibility and adaptability. But, perhaps more importantly ‘collaboration’ provides a prime element to success, that spans most sectors across the planet.
The various modes and tools of eCollaboration between people are well documented including: audio and video conferencing, connected white boards and meeting spaces are perhaps the most common. But there is far more when we include machines. People use and collaborate with machines at all levels, but increasingly the machines are autonomously collaborating.
“When things think, they want to link”
The inclusion of intelligence and smarts sees everything from our mobile devices to laptops, PCs, MainFrames and Super Computers starting to engage in cooperation and invisible conversations. The Cloud is amplifying this to our advantage with a growing range of apps backed up with distributed data, resources, networking, computing power and intelligences. Truth Engines and Intelligent Search and Find are also being developed to make available a range of new (easy to use) group and profession specific apps.
Most of us seem to spend more time locating information and the right people, than we devote to being creative and finding solutions. Our biggest challenge is to understand (in a shorter and shorter time frame), find the appropriate skill cells and get them all to come together as an effective team.
“The power to convene is both rare and coveted”
The old ways of working are falling by the wayside in the leading companies operating in the fastest moving sectors, whilst nothing much is happening (yet) at the other end of the market spectrum. But in this 21C the winners will be the global teams that connect, network and collaborate to maximise there creativity, and become the primary creators and solution finders.
Future of work.compressed
For millennia people worked in relative stability with industries sustained by very little change for hundreds of years. Even the industrial revolution saw a high degree of stability after the initial disruption. Mining, foundries, railways, shipping, mills etc employed thousands for a lifetime. This saw the creation of new towns and cities dedicated to major industries and gave rise to the illusion of job security - a notion that persists in many political minds today.
In <50 years that heritage has been swept away by technology and globalisation. The future now belongs to the mobile, the connected, the networkers and the most adaptable. A lifetimes employment in one job in one sector living in one place is rare. Even mining and agriculture are increasingly automated to require fewer people with less muscle and more tech skills. And while the media feature the destruction of jobs and a total takeover by the machines, the empirical evidence shows a growing number of vacancies for the skilled and those educated to adapt to the new needs of an age of robotics and artificial intelligence.
Everybody, every society and country, now face significant challenges in the need to change and adapt to technological advance….
“ Exactly like Mother Nature and biological evolution, technological evolution shows no compassion and no care - it really is about the survival of the most adaptable”
Diy (Health) Care
Throughout the developed world healthcare systems are creaking and failing to deliver what is expected by ageing and ailing populations. From the richest to the poorest of nations in this group, spend is going up, but failure is not being arrested. Three key mechanisms are the cause: First technology and the resulting advances in medicine are keeping us alive longer; Second the number of people needing care is rising rapidly and so is their individual expectation; Thirdly the dominant mode of death has migrated from a ‘simple, sudden, and unexpected event’ in the 1940/50s to a ‘protracted and complex series of physical and mental failure mechanisms’ in the 2000s.
“Death’s harbinger now moves slowly and very visibly amongst us”
Spending ever more money and employing ever more people is not the answer! A new model is required where we as individuals leverage all the available resources to take charge of our own health. We have to minimise the risks and be prepared to manage our minds and bodies should a failure mechanism strike. In the same way technology empowered us by affording new skills, facilities and capabilities, it can now lend support to our lives at every stage. But our actions have to be part of a three pronged approach: healthier lifestyles; day-to-day monitoring of vital body functions and regular medical checks; rapid diagnostics and remedial action. The necessary technology enablers are now within the grasp of everyone should they so choose.
The migration of medical facilities, skills, and equipment has always been: Hospital to Health Centre to Doctors Office to Our Bathroom Cabinet. But it was extremely slow! It is now accelerating with some aspects appearing to be in reverse gear! Mobiles, wearables, apps, testers, and on-line facilities often outgun Doctors and Hospitals in their ability to measure and monitor us 24x7 whilst we continue our daily lives. But, the revolution in sensors, genomics, robotics, and more, is about to amplify this trend…
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ICTON 2020 KeyNote: Evolving Network Security & Resilience
ICTON 2020 KeyNote: Evolving Network Security & Resilience
Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure
Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure
Similar to The Future WorkScape
Technologies That Will Change Everything
For millennia we have crafted artifacts from bulk materials that we have progressively refined to produce ever more precision tools and products. Latterly, we have crossed a critical threshold where our abilities now eclipse Mother Nature. For example; the smallest transistors in production today have feature sizes down to 2nm which is smaller than a biological virus ~20 - 200nm. The implications for ITC, AI, Robotics, and Production are ever more profound as we approach, and most likely undercut, the scale of the atom ~ 0.1-0.4nm. Not only does this open the door to new technologies, it sees new and remarkable capabilities. So, in this presentation we look at this new Tech Horizon spanning robotics to quantum computing and sensory technologies, and how they will help us realise sustainable futures germane to Industry 4.0, 5.0, and beyond.
Technology Overlords Or A Symbiosis ?
When people are exposed to the new for the first time their reaction, quite rightly, is generally one of caution and perhaps a degree of suspicion. And, when that ‘new born’ is a novel technology, reactions can quickly become amplified and biased toward the dystopian by the sensationalism of media and mis-information of social networks. In this modern era I think we can also safely assume that Hollywood has more than a ‘bit part’ in nurturing extreme reactions with movies such as Terminator, AI and Ex-Machina.
Our purpose here is to dispel the modern myth that technology is, or can be, inherently evil and a direct threat to humanity. We do so by positing three basic axioms:
“Without technology we would know and understand
almost nothing”
“The greatest threat to humanity is humanity”
“If technology progress and societal advance stall, then civilisations collapse”
Having briefly establishing these in the context of our wider history, we focus on the Industrial Revolutions and their beneficial upside and consequential negatives. We then move on to examine Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Artificial Life, and Quantum Computing in the context of our current needs and realising sustainable futures, and the survival of our civilisation.
IoT Yet to Come
IoT growth forecasts currently tend to span 30 – 60 Bn ‘Things’ by 2030. However, this ignores the central IoT role in realising sustainable societies where raw materials and component use have to see very high levels of reuse, repurposing, and recycling. In such a world almost everything we possess and use will have to be tagged and be electronically addressable as a part of the IoT. Such a need immediately sees growth estimates of 2Tn or more over the span of Industry 4 and 5. On the basis of energy demands alone, it is inconceivable that the technologies of BlueTooth, WiFi, 4, 5, and 6G could support such demand, and nor are the signaling and security protocols viable on such a scale.
The evolution of the IoT will therefore most likely see a new form of dynamic network requiring new lightweight protocols employing very little signal processing, together with very low energy wireless technologies (in the micro-Watt range) operating over extremely short distances (~10m). This need might be best satisfied by a new form of ‘Zero Infrastructure Mesh Networks’ that engage in active resource sharing, lossy probabilistic routing, and cyber security realised through an integrated ‘auto-immunity’ system. Ultimately, we might also envisage data amalgamation at key nodes that have a direct connection into the internet along with an additional layer of cyber checks and protection.
We justify the above assertions by illustrating the energy and network limitations of today’s 5G networks and those already obvious in current 6G proposals. We then go on to detail how a suitable IoT MeshNet might be configured and realised, along with a few solutions and emergent outcomes on the way.
Society 5.0: A Vital Symbiosis
The aspirational visions of Society 5.0 coined by many nations around 2015/16 have now been eclipsed by technological progress and world events including another European war, global warming, climate change and resource shortages. In this new context, the published 5.0 documents now seem naive and simplistic, high on aspiration, and very short on ‘the how’. The stark reality is that the present situation has been induced by our species and our inability to understand and cope with complexity.
“There are no simple solutions to complex problems”
What is now clear is that our route to survival and Society 5.0 will be born of Industry 4.0/5.0 and a symbiosis between Mother Nature, Machines, and Mankind. Today we consume and destroy near 50% more resources than the planet might reasonably support, and merely improving the efficiency of all our processes and what we do will only delay the end point. And so I4.0 is founded on new materials and new processes that are far less damaging, inherently sustainable, and most importantly, readily dispensable across the planet.
“Reversing global warming will not see a climatic reversal to some previously stable state”
In this presentation, we start with the nature of climate change, move on to the technology changes that might save the day, the impact of Industry 4.0/5.0, and then postulate what Society 5.0 might actually look like.
Smart cities and open data
A rough toolkit for makers in the smart cities, civic tech and open data spaces.
Approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
Approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
Approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
Approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
Big Tech What Is Coming And What It Means For Health And Fitness
At ISPO Digital 2021 Bryan O'Rourke Shares His Views On Big Tech And Is Impact On Health And Fitness
HR practices and technology induced change
The world of work and employment has never changed so fast or been so complex, and it is showing no sign of slowing down. The raw technologies of communication and IT now see the simultaneous arrival of Mobile Working, BYOD, BMOB, Social Nets; Open Nets, Software, Apps and The Cloud plus Big Data. This is no accident - everything is now connected - and one technology enables/breeds another to satisfy seen and unseen demands!
Not only have we all become typists, computer operators, reprographic specialists, designers, photo takers and movie makers, editors and exceptional producers, our skill sets and abilities are about to be amplified further by artificial intelligence and robotics. Needless to say HR Departments are facing the challenge of existing workforces thinking and operating behind the wave, whilst the new entries are generally ahead of the game and prone to breaking all the rules!
Wireless Past Present Future
In this lecture is the final session of an extensive wireless course delivered over several weeks at the University of Suffolk. So, by way of ‘rounding-off’ the series, we chart the progression of wireless/radio communication from the first spark transmitters through Carrier -Wave Morse, AM, FM, DSSC, SSB to digital systems along with the use of LW, MW, SW, VHF, UHF and Microwaves. Whilst we focus on Electro-Magnetic-Waves from 30kHz through 300GHz, we also mention optical, ultrasonic, and chemical communication as additional modes.
Our examinations detail the distinct genetic trails of 1, 2, 3G, and 4, 5G, the approximate development cycles/timeline along with distinctive changes in design thinking. We then postulate that 6 and 7G are likely to form a new line of development with 6G probably realised without any towers or any conventional cellular structure. In this context we also point out that there are no digital radios today, only traditional analogue designs with ‘strap-on-modems’ at the transmitter and receiver. Perhaps more radically, we suggest that it is time to adapt fully digital designs that allow for the eradication of the established bands and channels mode of operation.
We also chart the energy hungry progression of systems from 1 through 5G where tower installations are now consuming in excess of 10kW due to the extensive signal processing employed. This immediately debunks any notion of another step in the direction of more bandwidth, lower latency, greater coverage with >20x more towers (than 4G) and >250Bn power hungry smart devices. In short: we propose that 5G is the last of the line and the realisation of 6G demands new thinking and new modes that lead us away from W and mW to µW and nW wireless designs.
Whilst most of the technology required for 6G is available up to 300GHz, there remains one big channel in respect of the growing number of antennas per device and platform. Even for 3 - 5G + WiFi + BlueTooth space is at a premium in mobile devices and fractal antennas have not lived up to their promise too integrate all of these into one wideband structure. However, at 100GHz and above, antennas/dipoles become less than chip size and can see 10s included as phased arrays. But this all needs further work!
Throughout this lecture, we provide examples, demonstrations, and mind-experiments to support our assertions.
Network leadership in an uncertain world
Slides from my research and work on social networks, technology, strategy, and the future
CLICKNL DRIVE 2018 | 24 OCT | Designing with Future Emerging Technologies
Designing with Future Emerging Technologies
From Hype to Impact: Applying This Year's SXSW Highlights to Business Transfo...
Three of our global thought leaders explore the most coveted topics at SXSW, practical applications to our clients’ business (and our own), and how SapientRazorfish takes these highlights from hype to reality.
Whether you were in Austin or not, top trends are not difficult to find. Which is why we’re taking it a step further. Not only have we shared our takeaways from this year’s sessions, but we've also examined how the conversations at SXSW relate to business reimagined for a connected world.
Smart Materials and Structures
Industries 1.0, 2.0 (and most of) 3.0, saw manufacturing and construction using natural materials readily extracted, refined, amalgamated, machined, and molded. In general, these exhibited fixed mechanical, electrical, and chemical properties. However, the latter stages of Industry 3.0 embraced synthetics exhibiting superior properties to afford new degrees of freedom in the design of structures and products.
Today Industry 4.0 sees further advances with metamaterials, dynamic coatings, controllable properties, and additive manufacturing. Embedded smarts have also made communication between components, products and structures possible under the guise of the IoT. Adaptable materials with a degree of self-repair are also opening the door to further freedoms and less material use. In combination, these represent a big step toward sustainable societies with highly efficient ReUse, RePurposing, and Recycling (3R).
At the leading edge, we are now realising active surfaces that can reflect, absorb, or amplify wireless signals, offer programmable colour, and integral energy storage. But amongst a growing list of possibilities, it is integral sensing & communication that may define this new era. In this presentation, we look at these advances in the context of smart design, cities & societies.
Designing for What If (instead of as if) - Morgenbooster
Design, as a craft, has evolved. It has shifted from focusing solely on shapes and colors to encompassing a mindset and methodology that we can leverage to create anything – from meaningful digital solutions to societal change.
apidays LIVE Paris 2021 - Internet, Year Zero by Jonathan Bourguignon, Entrep...
apidays LIVE Paris 2021 - APIs and the Future of Software
December 7, 8 & 9, 2021
Internet, Year Zero
Jonathan Bourguignon, Entrepreneur & Author of the book "Internet Year Zero"
Virtual/Augmented reality, digital tools and superpowers for health applicati...
Keynote apresentado no minicurso realizado durante o primeiro simpósio mineiro de engenharia biomédica no INATEL no dia 14/08/15
Sobre a ordem das coisas, tentei comprimir a estrutura mais ou menos assim:
1-Um pouco sobre a FLAGCX e como vemos a ciência como propulsora que estica os limites da tecnologia.
2- Alguns cases legais, pra não ficar só na arena teórica (Get shit done!)
3- Um pouco sobre meu trabalho (e sobre como só consigo fazer o que faço graças ao crescimento exponencial, super ferramentas e outros fatores chave). Falamos de VR, AR, tecnologias que uso, demos técnicos e visão pessoal de futuro a curto/médio prazo desse mercado e do mercado de tecnologia pra healthcare
4- Finalmente a parte que mais queria dividir com vocês: Referências de super tools pra health care, softwares, serviços e cases de empresas disruptivas, desde realidade virtual/aumentada até databases conectadas, inteligencia artificial, Uberização de serviços de saúde, bioengenharia, plataformas de educação, treinamento e colaboração descentralizadas etc etc
5- Finalizamos com uma chamada pra vocês se inspirarem sempre, agirem, e ajudarem a espécie humana a transcender nossas limitações através das nossas ferramentas e do nosso intelecto.
Como prometido, aí estão todas as referências pra serem revistadas com calma. Espero que tenham gostado da experiência tanto quanto eu, e saibam que vocês foram a primeira turma pra quem eu apresentei 170 slides em mais de 3 horas de talk sem perder um único
interessado. You rock!
We're together in this ocean, let's do it!
#RadicalOpenness #Transcend ; )
Thinking like a Network
Workshop on getting to grips with digital strategy by thinking like a network. Understanding complex adaptive systems, terminology, exponential growth and how technology, behaviour and design all come together. Two exercises included are Stinky Fish and Jobs to be Done. Lots of stuff on Netflix in there too.
Similar to The Future WorkScape (20)
Approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
Approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
Approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
Approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
Big Tech What Is Coming And What It Means For Health And Fitness
Big Tech What Is Coming And What It Means For Health And Fitness
CLICKNL DRIVE 2018 | 24 OCT | Designing with Future Emerging Technologies
CLICKNL DRIVE 2018 | 24 OCT | Designing with Future Emerging Technologies
From Hype to Impact: Applying This Year's SXSW Highlights to Business Transfo...
From Hype to Impact: Applying This Year's SXSW Highlights to Business Transfo...
Designing for What If (instead of as if) - Morgenbooster
Designing for What If (instead of as if) - Morgenbooster
apidays LIVE Paris 2021 - Internet, Year Zero by Jonathan Bourguignon, Entrep...
apidays LIVE Paris 2021 - Internet, Year Zero by Jonathan Bourguignon, Entrep...
Virtual/Augmented reality, digital tools and superpowers for health applicati...
Virtual/Augmented reality, digital tools and superpowers for health applicati...
More from University of Hertfordshire
Quantifying Artificial Intelligence and What Comes Next!
It should be no surprise that AI is treading a similar path to computing which began with single-purpose machines tasked for payroll calculations, banking transactions, or weapons targeting et al, but nothing more! It took decades for General Purpose Computing to emerge in the form of the now ubiquitous PC. Today, AI is still in a single-purpose/task-specific phase, and we have no general-purpose platforms, but their emergence is only a matter of time!
Recent AI progress has seen a repeat of the media debate and alarmist warnings for our computing past, compounded by consequential advances in robotics. In turn, this has promoted numerous attempts to draw biological equivalences defining the time when machines will overtake humans. But without any workable definitions or framework that tend to little more than un/educated guesses. Recourse to IQ measures and the Touring test have proved to be irrelevant, and without a reference framework or formal characterisation, continued discussion and debate remain futile
We therefore approach this AI problem from the bottom up by defining the simplest of machines and lifeforms to derive clues, pointers and basic boundary conditions . This sees a fundamental Entropic description emerge that is applicable to both machine and lifeforms.
This presentation is suitable for professionals and the public alike, and is fully illustrated by high-quality graphics, animations and, movies. Inevitably, it contains some mathematics that non-practitioners will have to take on trust, but the focus is on defining the key characteristics, parameters, and important features of AI, our total dependence, and the future!
Note: A 40 min session for a predominantly ley audience and not all the slides presented here were used on the day. Their inclusion here is in response to those audience members requesting more detail at the end of/during the event.
The Philosophy of Science
Past civilisations have nurtured small populations of those trying to understand and manipulate nature to some advantage in materials, tools, weapons, food, and wealth. However, they never formed communities and lacked the means of recording, communicating, and sharing successes and failures. They also lacked a common framework/philosophy to qualify them as scientists, but that all began to change in the 16th Century. In this lecture we consider the progression to a philosophy of science, and the underlying principles and assumptions that now guide scientific inquiry.We also examines the nature of scientific knowledge, the methods of acquisition, evolution, and significance over past centuries, and reflect on the value to society.
In the struggle to solve problems, deliver understanding, and reveal the truth about our universe, science had to suffer and survive: ignorance, bigotry, established superstitions, and the ‘diktats’ of religions and politics, and latterly, falling education standards mired by social media. We chart that ‘scientific’ journey emphasising the importance of observation, experimentation, and the search for universal laws. Ultimately, this essentially Aristotelian perspective was challenged and overtaken by the rise of empiricism, which emphasised the importance of sensory experience and the limitations of human knowledge.
Science continues to evolve and provide us with the best truths attainable with our leading edge technologies of observation and experimentation. Today, it stands as the greatest and richest contributor to human knowledge, understanding, progress, and wellbeing. In turn, debates and controversies are ongoing, shaping the field and philosophy which remains essential for understanding the nature of scientific knowledge and the models it creates. But unlike any belief system, the answers and models furnishers by science are not certain and invariant, they tend to be stochastic and incomplete - ‘the best we can do’ at a given time.
Future Telecoms Challenges & Opportunities
In this workshop session we identify aging technology design concepts, old business and operating models, plus energy supply limits as the prime constraints of 6G and beyond. We also identify the notion of an erroneous spectrum shortage born of the bands and channel mode of operation which is fundamentally unsuited to 6G and IoT demands in the near and far future.
We strongly link optical fibre in the local loop with future wireless systems and the need for very low-energy ‘tower-less’ systems. We also postulate a future demanding UWB and HWB (Hyper) with transmission energies ~𝛍W and signals below the ambient noise level. This will be necessary to power an IoT of >2.4Tn Things which we estimate to be necessary for Industry 4/5 and sustainable societies.
Thermodynamics - Laws Embracing Our Universe
It is hard to understate the importance of ‘Thermodynamics’ in providing an almost complete (Grand Unified Theory) picture of the inner physics of energy transfer spanning machines and chemistry thro information.
Apparently, Einstein had two favourite theories: General Relativity and Thermodynamics! He championed both because of their ‘beauty’, completeness, and emergent properties purely derived from the fundamental consideration of how the universe works.
The origins of this topic mainly reside in the Industrial revolution and the realisation that the early machinery was grossly inefficient. E.G. Engines were only converting the energy consumed to ~2% of useful work output. This drew the attention of Savery (1698), Newcomen (1712), Carnot (1769), and for the next 200 years the conundrum of lost energy occupied many of the greatest scientific minds. This culminated in Rudolf Clausius (~1850)publishing his theory of Thermodynamics with further refinement by Boltzmann (1872).
Why was all this so important? In the 1700s a ‘beam engine’ weighing in at >20 tons consumed vast amounts of coal, to deliver an output ~10hp. Today a Turbofan jet Engine can deliver >30k hp at a weight of ~6 tons. This is the difference between working with little understanding, and today where our knowledge is far more complete. Our latest challenges tend around non-linear loss mechanisms associated with turbulent air and fuel flow.. And like many other fields we have to step beyond our generalise mathematical models and turn to the power of our computers for deeper insights.
Ultimately all machines, mechanisms, computing processes and information itself, involve the transformation of matter and/or bits, and thus they are Entropic and subject to the theory of Thermodynamics. This lecture therefore presents a foundation spanning the history and progress to date in preparation for the embracing other science and engineering disciplines.
Applied Science - Engineering Systems
Engineering might be defined as the judicial application of science and scientific knowledge, but with the rider that unlike science and scientific studies, engineering always has to deliver a solution and a result. There are therefore aspects of engineering that stretch and challenge, the accepted, wisdom and knowledge of science. To purists, this might appear outrageous, but it is no more so than the works of Erwin Schrödinger or Leonhard Euler et al
In this lecture we examine many of the established engineering basics whilst being mindful that most of our education, techniques, and working solutions are founded on the assumption of well behave linear environments. As our entire universe, and everything in it, is inherently complex and non-linear, we have to salute the powers of approximation and iteration for our many engineering success to date. However, we are increasingly being challenged by complexities of the fundamental non-linear nature of the problems confronting us. ( E.G. Politics, Conflict, Global Warming, Sustainability, Medicine, Fusion Power, Logistics, Networks, Depletion of Resources, Accelerating Tech Driven Change +++)
We start by tracing history from the foundations up to the present day, including modern analytical nomenclature and techniques, system reliability, resilience and costs, we highlight the the basic human limitations that necessitate multi-disciplinary teams that include AI and vast computing power.
The overall treatment includes our analogue past, digital today, and analogue/digital hybrid future of computing, robots, networks and systems of all kinds. It also includes animations, movies and sound files to demonstrate the realities of modern system design including the inherent complexities. To further highlight, and exemplify this projected future, we examine a real engineering project concerned with acoustic sniper spotting under battlefield conditions and extreme noise. Here a combination of digital modelling sees the use of analogue acoustic filter arrays, analogue signal amplification, and digital signal processing doubling the range of sniper detection and location.
The Scientific Meme
Recently, it has become increasingly evident that we have engineers and scientists reaching a professional level of practice without a clear understanding of the scientific method, its origins, and its fundamental workings. There also appears to be a lack of appreciation of our total dependence on the truths that science continually reveals. How this situation ensued appears to vary from country to country, and the flavour of education system encountered by students. But a common complaint is the progressive dumbing down of the science curriculum along with a dire shortage of qualified teachers. This also seems to be compounded with the increasing speciation of science and engineering into narrower and narrower disciplines. So this situation (crisis?) prompted a request for a corrective series of foundation lectures focussed on healing these educational flaws across relevant disciplines, graduating and practicing levels. This then is the first in this foundation series.
Uncanny Valley and Human Destiny
Uncanny Valley addresses our reactions to humanoid objects, such as robots, a video game characters, or dolls, and how they look and act ‘almost’ like a real human. Feeling of uneasiness or disgust in the observer are addressed directly, rather than familiarity or attraction. The theory was proposed by Japanese roboticist Masahiro Mori in 1970 and has been explored by many researchers and artists since. It has application in AI, robotics, MMI, and human-computer interaction, and helps designers to create more appealing devices that can interact with people in various domains, such as industry, education, entertainment, defence, health care, et al.
In this lecture we explain and demonstrate the fundamentals before extending the principle to sound, motion, actions, and eyes as an output mechanism. We also note that all this poses some challenges and risks in the potential for reduced the emotional connections, empathy, acceptance, and trust between humans and machines. On a further dimension the potential to create threat and terror can be useful opportunity in the military domain. It is thus important to understand the causes and effects of the uncanny valley in the wider sense in order to meet the needs of each application space
Resurgence of Technology Driven Change
Only 40 years ago, the rate of technologically driven change was such that companies could re-organize efficiently and economically over considerable periods of time, but about 30 years ago this changed as the arrival of new technologies accelerated. We effectively moved from a world of slow periodic changes to one where change became a continuum. The leading-edge sectors were fast to recognize and adopt this new mode of continual adaptation driven by new technologies. This saw these ever more efficient and expansive companies dominating some sectors. For the majority, however, it seems that this transition was not recognized until relatively recently, and a so new movement was born under the banner of digitalization. This not only impacts the way people work, it affects company operations and changes markets, and it does so suddenly!.
Perhaps the most impactive and recent driver of change in this regard has been COVID which saw the adoption of video conferencing and working as a survival imperative in much less than a month. This now stands as a beacon of proof that companies, organizations, and society, can indeed change and adapt to the new at a rate previously considered impossible. The big danger for digitalization programmes now is the simple-minded view that there are singular (magic) solutions that fit every company and organization, but this is not the case. The reality is that the needs and culture of an organization are not the same and may not be uniform from top to bottom.
Manufacturing necessitates very steep hierarchical management structures and tight control to ensure the consistency of the quality of products. On the other hand, a research laboratory or design company requires a low flat management hierarchy and an apparently relaxed level of control. This is absolutely necessary to foster creativity, innovation, and invention. This presentation gives practical examples of management and organizational, extremes. We then go on to highlight the need to embrace AI and Quantum Computing over the coming decade to deal with future technologies, operating
and market complexity.
Cyber Portents and Precursors
In a world of accelerating innovation and increasingly complex digital services, applications, appliances, and devices, it seems unreasonable to expect customers to understand and maintain their own cyber security. We are way past the point where even the well educated can cope with the compounded complexity of an ‘on-line-life’. The reality is, today's products and services are incomplete and sport wholly inadequate cyber defence applications.
Perhaps the single biggest problem is that defenders have never been professional attackers - and they don’t share the same level of thinking and deviousness, or indeed, the inventiveness of their enemies. Apart from an education embracing the attack techniques, and in some cases, engaging in war games, the defenders remain on the back foot However, there a number of new, an potentially significant, approaches yet to be addressed, and we care to look at the problem from a new direction.
In the maintenance of high-tech equipment and systems across many industries, identifiable precursors are employed to flag impending outages and failures. This realisation prompted a series of experiments to see if it was possible to presage pending cyber attacks. And indeed it was found to be the case!
In this presentation we give an overview of our early experimental and observational results, long with our current thinking spanning networks through to individual hackers, and inside actors.
THE FUTURE OF MOBILE NETWORKS
Connecting Everything Vital to Sustainability
Mobile network evolution has followed a reasonably predictable path almost entirely focused on the needs of human communication. The transition from 1 to 2G was dictated by the economics of reliability, performance, and scale, whilst 3, 4, and 5G saw the transition to mobile computing with full internet access, AI and an ever-expanding plethora of applications. But 5G could be the end of the line as cell-site energy demands have become excessive at ~10kW.
Midway between the migration from 4G to 5G, M2M and the IoT machines overtook the human population of 8Bn people with near (estimated) 20Bn devices. Current IoT growth rates suggest a 40 - 60Bn population by 2030 to 2050. However, we present evidence that it could be far more ~ 1,000Bn ‘Things’. This is based on the observation of the number of IoT components populating modern vehicles, homes, offices, factories and plants, along with smart ‘human implants’ and ‘smart bolts’ plus the instrumentation of civil; structures.
The bold assumption that 5G would be a dominant player in the IoT is now patently one of naivety and the world has become far more complex with over 10 wireless standards currently in use. So, this poses the question; will 6G rise to the challenge? We see this as highly unlikely as the diversity of need is extremely broad, and we propose that it could be the end of tower based networks for a lot of applications. A migration to mesh-nets, UWB and (Hyper Wide Band) for the IoT at frequencies above 100GHz seems the most obvious engineering choice as it allows for far simpler designs with extremely low power at sub $0.01/device cost. 5G is already on the margins of being sustainable, and a ‘more-of-the-same’ thinking 6G can lonely be far worse!
Quantifying Machine Intelligence Mathematically
Seventy years on from AI appearing on the public scene and all the optimistic projections have been largely overtaken with systems outgunning humans at all board, card and computer games including Chess, Poker and GO. Of course; general knowledge, medical diagnosis, genetics and proteomics, image and pattern recognition are now all firmly in the grasp of AI.
Interestingly, AI is treading a similar path to computing in that it began with single purpose/task machines that could only deal with a company payroll calculations or banking transactions and nothing more! General purpose computing emerged over further decades to give us the PCs and devices we now enjoy. So, AI currently runs as task specific applications on these general purpose platforms, and no doubt, general purpose AI will also become tractable in a few decades too!
Recent progress has promoted a deal of debate and discussion along with hundreds of published papers and definitions that attempt to characterise biological and artificial intelligence. But they all suffer the same futility and fail! Without reference to any formal characterisation, all discussion and debate remains relatively meaningless.
Somewhat ironically, it was the defence industry that triggered the analysis work here. Two of key steps to success were: the abandonment of all performance comparisons between biological and machine entities; and the avoidance of using the human brain as some ‘golden’ intelligence reference.
This presentation is suitable for professionals and public alike, and comes fully illustrated by high quality graphics, animations and movies. Inevitably, it contains (engineering) mathematics that non-practitioners will have to take on trust, whilst professionals may wish challenge on the basis that the focus on getting a solution rather than the purity of the process!
Cyber Security - Thinking Like The Enemy
We are engaged in a war the like of which we have never seen or experienced before. Our enemies are invisible and relentless; with globally dispersed forces working at all levels and in all sectors of our societies. They are better organised, resourced, motivated, and adaptive than any of our organisations or institutions, and they are winning. This war is also one of paradox!
“The cost to many nations is now on a par with their GDP”
“No previous war has seen so many suffer so much to (almost) never retaliate”
“We are up against attackers who operate as a virtual (ghost-like) guerrilla army”
“No state can defend its population and organisations, and they stand alone - isolated and exposed”
“A real army/defence force would rehearse and play all day and very occasionally engage in warfare. We, on the other hand, are at war every day but never play, war-game, or anticipate new forms of attack”
To turn this situation around we need to understand our enemies and adopt their tactics and tools as a part of our defence strategy. We also have to be united, and organised so the no one, and no organisation, stands alone. We also have to engage in sharing attack data, experiences and solutions.
All this has to be supported by wargaming, and anticipatory solutions creation.
The good news is; we have better, and more, people, machines, networks, facilities, and expertise than our enemies. All it requires is the embracing of advanced R&D, leadership, sharing, and orchestration on a global scale.
Engineering Reliability and Resilience
Throughout my career in science, engineering and management I attended numerous meeting where many misconceptions and misinterpretations were evident. Perhaps the most expansive and expensive were the probabilities assumed and calculated for system reliability and/or product manufacturing quality. Eventually, I began to refer to this as ‘five nines’ problem!
Not fully understanding the origins of the reliability measures, it is so easy to demand a 99.999% instead of 99.99% up time for an electronic system. What could be easier? At face value it appears to be trivial and straightforward! Likewise, taking a 5s manufacturing plant up to a 6s defect level turns out to be a monumental engineering challenge! And at the time of writing 6s has never been achieved!
It appears that to few engineering and management courses address this topic, and if they do, it is as a scant reference of insufficient depth. So, we see far too many students understand in any depth, if at all! And when they become managers they just ‘don’t get it’!
This presentation and the associated lecture have been specifically created to address this problem with relevance to BSc, BA, MSc and MBA students along with anyone needing a refresher or explicit introduction to the topic. In addition to the graphics, animations and movies, the lecture is also littered with practical examples and the outcomes of case studies.
TRUTH, SITUATION, & CONTEXT AWARENESS
We are engaged in an exponentially growing cyber war that we are visibly losing. Within the next 3 years it has been estimated that the global cost will equal, or overtake, the UK GDP, and it is clear that our defences are inadequate and often ineffective. Malware and ransomer-ware continue to extort more money, and cause damage and inconvenience to individuals, organisations and society, whilst hacker groups, criminals and rogue states continue to innovate and maintain their advantage. At the same time, our defences are subverted and rendered ineffective as we operate in a reactive and prescriptive, after the fact, mode with no foresight or anticipation.
In any war it is essential to know and understand as much about the enemy as possible, it is also necessary to establish the truth and validity of any situation or development. Doing this in the cyber domain is orders of magnitude more difficult than the real world, but some of the relevant tools are now available or at an advanced stage of development. For example; fully automated fact checkers and truth engines have been demonstrated, whilst situational awareness technologies are commercially available. However, what is missing is some level of context assessment on a continual basis. Without this we will continue to be ‘blind-sided’ by the actions and developments of the attackers as they maintain their element of surprise along every line of innovation.
What do we need? In short ; a Context Engine that continually monitors networks, servers, routers, machines, devices and people for anomalous behaviours that flag pending attacks as behavioural deviations that are generally easy to detect. In the case of attacker groups we have observed precursor events and trends in network activity days ahead of some big offensive. However, this requires a shift in the defenders thinking and operations away for the reactive and short term, to the long term continual monitoring, data collection and analysis in order to establish threat assessments on a real time.
The behavioural analysis of people, networks and ITC, is at the core of our ‘Context Engine’ solution which completes the triangle of: Truth; Situation; Context Awareness to provide defenders with a fuller and transformative picture. Most of the known precursor elements of this undertaken have been studied in some depth, with some behavioural elements identified on real networks and some physical situations. The unknown can only add more accuracy!
The Scientific Method
In a world that appears riven by social media, ill-informed opinion, rumour, and conspiracy theories in preference to facts and established truths, it can be alarming to see scientists, doctors, and engineers challenged by vacuous statements that often hold sway over the hard-won truths of science. Moreover, large numbers of people do not understand the ‘scientific method’ and what makes it so powerful.
Paradoxically, those challenging science and scientists based on their belief systems do so using technologies that can only be furnished by scientific methodologies. For sure; no religion, belief system, great political mind, anarchist, professional protester, or social commentator will produce a TV set, mobile phone, laptop, tablet, supercomputer, MRI Scanner, AI system, or vaccine! But they will criticise, challenge, and be abusive based on their ignorance and inability.
So, this is the world that now influences the minds of young aspiring students, and this presentation is designed to go beyond the simple exposition and statement of the scientific principles and method, to provide an ancient, modern, and forward-looking perspective. It also includes a complex ‘worked example’ to highlight the rigour that must be applied to establish any truth!
Its My Data Not Yours!
Our communications history is dominated by fixed networks of bounded linear predictability. These were based on precise engineering design giving assured information security, and measured operation. However, mobile devices, internet, social networks, IP, and Apps changed all that! Internets are inherently non-linear, unbounded, and essentially designoid — that is, mostly shaped by evolution, steered by demand/rapid innovation - highly adaptive and ‘learning’ in real time.
So, those who suppose we can control such networks to fully guard and protect the information of institutions and individuals are sadly mistaken. And further confounded by Industry 4.0 and the Internet of Things (IoT). Here, a mix of the information of individuals and things, is distributed across the planet on a scale far larger than ever conceived in the past, to become essential components in the survival of our species in realising sustainable societies.
Not surprising then, Privacy and Data protection are big issues for regulators, governments and civil liberties organisations. But so far, nothing has worked, and we see the UK Data Protection Act, EU-GDPR, EU-USA Shield, and Copyright Laws often ignored or worked around. These are largely derivatives of a paper based world and a pre-computing world are now largely unfit for purpose.
Cyber Security - Becoming Evil
This presentation was created in support of a short keynote for ICGS3-21 (14-15 Jan21) UK to purposely highlight the reasons why we are losing the cyber war and what we have to do to win. The approach adopted quantifies the key weakness and shortcomings of our current defence strategies to give pointers to a more secure future.
In postulating remedies, we purposely fall back on the wisdoms of Sun Tzu and The Art of War to highlight and explain the meaning and implications of quoted insights (below) and their pertinence to modern cyber wars/security.
“To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy”
In this way, we go beyond opinion and suspicion by quantifying the scale of the individual elements of the cyber security equation using a variant of Drake’s Equation. This gives us a good estimate of the scale of the problems we face. Beyond this we highlight some cultural and political issues that need urgent attention.
Finally, we link to comprehensive presentations going back to 2016 that detail specific Red and Blue team exercises thinking and preparation. These themes were invoked to widen the awareness and thinking in the student body @ The UoS.
QUANTUM COMPUTING REALITY CHECK
"Demystifying a world of the weird and unexpected"
In just over 100 years our understanding of reality, nature, and the world about us has transited from the simple, linear and causal, to the complex, non-linear, and confounding. As a species, we now understand something of the scale of the problems we face and the limitations of our innate abilities. In addition, our mathematical and digital computing frameworks do not scale to match the challenges of climate change, global warming, or the economics of sustainability.
‘Quantum Computing is analogue/probabilistic and not digital’
The stark reality is; We will never understand the human brain, the true nature of cancer, chemistry, biology, life, and the complexities of the environment using today’s tools. Building bigger and better digital computers does not scale to meet these challenges, and is untenable in the longer term! For sure, AI can help us formulate new enlightenments, but it still isn’t enough. We occupy a quantum universe that cannot be decoded and understood by us or our linear machines, no matter how many or how big! A Quantum universe demands Quantum Computers to realize deep understandings.
‘Quantum Computers will not replace our digital computers
In this multi-media talk we open the ‘quantum kimono of reality’ to explain the what, how, and when, of Quantum Machines and the implications for the future.
Cyber Security in a Fully Mobile World
It has been estimated that the global earnings of Cyber Criminals will equal or exceed the GDP of the UK sometime in the 2022/23 window. If this was the capability of a country they would be joining the G8! Clearly, we are losing the Cyber War hands down, and the time has long passed when we might ignore the threat scenarios surrounding us.
In this lecture we examine global networks from home and office through the ‘last mile,’ and on to national and international networks to identify the key vulnerabilities and points of potential ingress. We identify the cyber risks as escalating as we approach the periphery of all forms of network. For the most part, the core/carrier networks are virtually unassailable physically as they are dominated by terrestrial and undersea optical fibre cables.
Throughout the ‘carrier’ network levels the difficulty of physical interception, encryption, routing, and path diversity employed renders them secure in the extreme. Attackers, therefore, tend to focus on the exploitation of people, devices, services, home, and office appliances, and latterly, a poorly engineered IoT.
In reality, we are expanding the attack surface of the planet exponentially without due caution or care in the most exposed sectors and locations. And so, we explore potential tech and operational solutions for the future.
NOTE: This lecture is one of a series that has examined technology design and deployment, devices and the IoT, people fallibility, deviousness, internal and external threats.
In class; RED and BLUE Team Exercises have also been conducted in support of the complete Cyber Security Package to date.
MSP Automation - Application and Execution
Every Industrial revolution has seen the progression from people dominated design, build and production to a higher degrees of automation that has gone hand-in-hand with shortening timescales enabled by ever-more powerful technologies. However, at a fundamental level the process has remained the same, but it is now edging toward a continuum of evolution as opposed to a series of discrete jumps that often trigger company reorganizations. In concert, there is a realization abroad that it is no longer about the biggest, the strongest, the best, or the fittest, it is now all about the survival of the most adaptable.
By and large it is relatively easy to predict when and where tech change will occur and the likely outcomes, in terms of existing and future products and services, but how people, customers, companies and societies will react is an unsolved puzzle. On another plane, competition and threats may well occur outside the sector, from a direction managers are not looking, by entirely new mechanisms, and at a most critical time. These are all challenges indeed!
How to adapt to, and cope with these collective challenges is the focus of this presentation which is illustrated and supported by past and present industrial cases along with the experiences and methodologies of those who have driven/weathered this storm as well as those who failed. Many of the illustrations are automated and there are exemplar movies and segue inserts throughout.
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The Future WorkScape
- 1. N The f U T U R E WorkSCAPE TEC Professor Peter Cochrane OB E https://petercochrane.com “The influence of new technologies on trajectories of work”
- 2. Mechanisatio n Steam Powe r Weaving Looms Cyber Physica l Nano-Bio Tec h AI, Robotics, IoT Mass Productio n Assembly Lin e Electric Power Automatio n Compute r Control Water Power T H E F O R C E F U N C T I O N INDUSTRY 5.0 Smart Material s Programme d Form & Functio n Evolvin g Sentien t Living ? Acceleratin g Huma n Progress Sentient/Evolutionar y Intelligent/Adaptabl e Electronic Mechatroni c Electro-Mechanica l Mechanical
- 3. BIO-TECH nano-TECH AI Robotics An Eco-System of fixed/mobile, wired and wireless things… IoT Envelope Orchestrating the life cycle of all materials; the production, supply, support, through reuse, repurpose, recycling…all at very high efficiency DRIVING FORCE I 4 . 0 : K e r n e l New materials, sciences, technology, engineering, automation, robotics, and intelligences… Hot Spot
- 4. Q u a n t u m Computing Analogue not digital Probabalistic not deterministic Require cryogenics & digital control Need digital computing to confirm results We will never fully understand chemistry, biology, physics, life, intelligence, weather systems et al sans Quantum Computers! This is on the horizon - but~5,~10,~15 years in the future? “The universe is not a simple linear place. It is governed by quantum mechanics to its core - ie complexity & non-linearity rule” Peter Cochrane 2002
- 5. A S O C I E Ta l Perspective Many of our institutions grew from the needs of a ‘slow to change world’ of disconnected people, things and companies New Styles New Locations New Technologies New Methodologies ….we have repeatedly sought and adopted in relatively short times! Changes in technology, the workspace, home, and society can only accelerate!
- 6. PRIMARY DRIVER SO VERY FAST! From no PC to a super computer in every pocket (in < a human lifetime!) accelerating all industries, institutions, and disciplines iPhone 13 20Bn Transistors 730GFlops Same performance as a 1997 supercomputer
- 7. C O N N EC T E D EVERYTHING A sociology of things is gradually emerging
- 8. From no PC to a super computer in every pocket in < a human lifetime! https://www.statista.com/chart/17727/global-data-creation-forecasts/ Exponential E VE R Y T H I N G Data overload is now a disabling epidemic for all professionals… “From no PC to a super computer in every pocket in < a human lifetime”
- 9. In < 2 weeks the much debated and decided impracticable/impossible became the new norm! New Styles New Modes New Locations New Technologies New Methodologies New Working Practices ….were accepted & adopted! BIGGEST EVER CHANGE AGENT
- 10. > 40 YEARS of B l a h , b l a h …
- 11. From Do It For Me to DIY; Of fl ine to Online; Your Data to My Data; We Control to You Decide…in < 2 weeks/years New Styles New Locations New Technologies New Methodologies ….were accepted & adopted! HEALTHCARE STREAMLINED
- 12. D I F M t o D I Y H E A LT H C A R E From Do It For Me to DIY; Of fl ine to Online; Your Data to My Data; We Control to You Decide…in < 2 weeks Temperature Blood Pressure Blood Glucose Sample kits Online +++ ….all accepted & now expected Domestic low cost monitoring devices, wearables, and test packs in the mail, video conference consultations, self medication +++
- 13. ATTITUDE What you do NOT Somewhere you go! EDUCATION DISPERSED Student free universities, with everyone needing broadband access, their own PC/Laptop/ Tablet… and skills
- 14. What you do NOT Somewhere you go! EDUCATION A T H O M E Every child and teacher need good broadband access, their own PC/ Laptop/Tablet… In the UK there was a national scheme for donations of ££ and old/unused devices + online volunteer tutors
- 15. ATTITUDE What you do NOT Somewhere you go! A b a n d o n e d O f f i c e s & B U I L D I N G S London footfall still <35% and people are very reluctant to return…
- 16. W O R K I N G New methods and new styles…
- 17. O U TC O M E S Zero Footfall: Crashed the service industry, accelerated on-line sales, trading, entertainment , gambling, food, goods buying and the logistics of home deliveries +++
- 18. REALISATION WORK is what you do NOT Somewhere you go!
- 19. Work is not a 9 to 5 activity, it is more a c o m p o n e n t o f a n integrated lifestyle REALISATION
- 20. ATTITUDE What you do NOT Somewhere you go! My OS MY Apps My Cloud MY Software MY D e v i c e s REALISATION Personal and NOT Corporate, Institutional or Educational! Personal P e r s o n a l
- 21. D E F I N I N G PERSONAL You keep (your tech) close & you don’t share it with anyone - it is where you live and work!
- 22. Its no longer about age and retirement, it is about need, ability, contribution, and a mindset that says I can, so I will… we have a skills gap and a big people shortage across the planet… REALISATION
- 23. “You gotta be joking” I’m not an automaton… I suggest you employ a robot! Attitudes
- 24. ATTITUDE What you do NOT Somewhere you go! “I don’t want a job, I want a project ! If it’s boring and I’m not learning, challenged, excited…then I’m not hanging around”! Attitudes
- 25. A V E R Y B I G REALISATION We are continually short of people because new technologies create more jobs than they destroy! Don’t retire, retrain! Don’t take just any job, go for what you enjoy Don’t think that education is for life - it is continuous Be prepared to resell, adopt, adapt and move fast! Serial job changers are becoming the new norm IT IS A SELLERS MARKET !
- 26. Cities are seeing resistance to a return to the old ways and …a real estate crisis might just be looming! GOING BACK MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE!
- 27. What you do NOT Somewhere you go! Technology induced change is like a ratchet - it only goes one way! No Going Back? “Societies advance at a pace dictated by their willingness to adopt the new, and not their ability to discover, invent, and innovate”
- 28. T E C H N O L O G Y EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION ? Evolution offers the best RoI; least OPEX, APEX; and minimises disruption to the organisation whilst also minimising operational risk Failure Cure Revolution Steps Evolution Continuum Success Index “Digitalisation is a good example of how not to do it” “Management must have been asleep at the wheel”
- 29. SURVIVAL Not the Fittest Not the Biggest Not the Strongest Not the most Intelligent The most Adaptable survive and prosper ‘With apologies to Charles Darwin for modifying his actual words to fit our case’
- 30. A N E W A G E O F AUGME NTATION AI, AR, VR, IoT, QC Industry 4.0/5.0 Networks Robotics Sensors IoT= Internet of Things AI = Arti fi cial Intelligence AR = Augmented Reality VR = Virtual Reality QC = Quantum Computing Pure Logic & Intuition Bonded
- 31. PARTNERS T O C O M E AI & Robotics are with us already… soon they will be as one… autonomous agents of a new world… Not thinking / doing as humans, but affording a different / much needed perspective !
- 32. R o b o t s P r o d u c e almost everything
- 33. R o b o t I C D E L I V E R Y
- 34. R o B O T i c S O R T E R S
- 35. E F F E C T I v e N E S S BOOST - RADIOLOGISTS
- 36. THE RIGHT STUFF AND JOB Losses
- 37. PREDICTIONS & FORECASTS Technology: Relatively easy to say what & when Market: Adoption time & volume much harder People: Demand & usage pretty much impossible Never utter the following: “But there is no proven demand” lest you wish to be thought a fool!
- 38. M I N D S E T C H A N G E S “I never let my education interfere with my learning” Mark Twain 1835 - 1910
- 39. s e g u e : s i m p l e m i n d e d Climate State Good Stable Bad Unstable Average Temperature State 1 State 2 Tundra Methane Release Amazon Destruction Ocean Temp Rise CO2 Forest Fires Ice Melt CO2 Pollution ++++
- 40. s e g u e : S I M P L E i l l u s i o n Simpl e Linear Problems Har d Linear Problems Nast y Problems “Where, and how, we are educated affords the illusion of a largely linear and well behaved universe that can be well characterised mathematically and modelled by computer programs”
- 41. s e g u e : C O M P L E X r e a l i t y Har d Non-Linear Problems Linea r Problems “But, the universe is a fundamentally complex and non-linear place where the illusion of simplicity is transitory and short lived - and we face many problems beyond our human and digital computing abilities” Nast y Non-Linear Problems
- 42. “The universe and all therein are fundamentally non-linear, but we are limited linear thinkers ” Peter Cochrane M I N D S E T s w i l l h av e T O C H A N G E “We have no general mathematical or systems modelling methods or frameworks to call upon; and therefore we are wholly dependent upon computers and AI” Peter Cochrane
- 43. I N S T A N T A R E D U C A T I O N
- 44. I N S T A N T A R T R A I N I N G
- 45. E X P O N E N T I A L E D U C A T I O N
- 46. R o b o t s P r o d u c e almost everything C Y B O R G S o c i e t y
- 47. c o n n e c t e d C Y B O R G S & M a c h i n e s This is but one small step toward directly connecting man and machine as one
- 48. A I C R E AT I V I T Y Rocket Engine Designed by AI Printed by Robot
- 49. A I C R E AT I V I T Y Designed by AI Printed by Robots Doing More With Less Energy, Materials, Waste, Shipping, and Time To Realise Better Performance Resilience Reliability Reuse Recovery Recycling
- 50. H O L O G R A P H I C P R E S E N C E
- 51. PARTNERSHIP Novel Problem Solution Combinatorially Simple Low Volume Accuracy Emotional Intelligence Intuitive Deductions Limited Networking _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Frequent/Repetitive Tasks Combinatorially Complex High Volume Precision Pattern Recognition Logical Deductions Vast Networking +++++++
- 52. What you do NOT Somewhere you go! TECHnology ADVANCE D E s T R O Y S o l d J O B S Lost in my lifetime: Typists Dockers Milkman Blacksmith Secretaries Drawing Of fi ce Xerox Operator Elevator Operator Computer Operator Telephone Operator Comptometer Operator Financial Report writers ++++ Losses yet to come: Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call Centres Report Writers Personal Bankers Personal Assistants Answering Services Investment bankers Warehouse People Personal Assistant Tech Support Stock Trader Receptionist Forecasters Train Driver Researcher Journalist Drivers Pilots ++++
- 53. What you do NOT Somewhere you go! Jobs to come: Material Programmer Recycling Designers Interface Designers Machine Mediators Wisdom Archivists Genome Designer Material Designer Wisdom Monitors Trouble Shooters Robot Designer s Nano-Engineers Bio-Engineer s ++++ AI Designers 3D Designer Risk Pro fi lers Cyborg Engineer Protein Designer Crime Predictor Digital Historian Information Caretaker Truth Engine Mediator N-D geometry Analyst Component Repurpose r Genome-Protein Activator s ++++ Jobs to be enhanced: Leader Mento r Fabricato r Geneticis t Generalis t Proteomis t Multi-Designe r Problem Solvers Longevity Adviso r Big Data Analys t Small Data Analys t Cellular Programme r Material programme Complexity Analys t Security Exper t Entrepreneur s Technologist s Educationalis t Consultant s Architect s Detective s Designer s Engineer s Modeller s Scientist s Medic s ++++ T E C H c r e a t e d & / o r e n h a n c e d
- 54. • Old technologies cannot sustain todays population ~8Bn • Industries of the past cannot realise sustainable futures • Yesterdays management practices need updating • Our economic models/frameworks are inadequate • Ancient political models are unfit for purpose N O G O I N G B A C K The arrow of technology goes one way
- 55. B I G H I D D E N CHALLENGES “In a world of in creativity and transient specialisms - the generalist will be king” Time, energy, complexity, knowledge, resources, capability and the stamina of the human brain and body are prime limiters to progress - the 5 day, 9 to 5 working week is long gone - and we need help! - International organisations with of fi ces around the planet never sleep - Complex creativity and problem solving have no time schedule - Resources (technical & people) may not be available 24 x 7 - Team dispersion and video calls are creativity limiting - Time availability for keeping up to date is tight - Continuous education/up is a challenge - The machines might just save us ?
- 56. B I G H I D D E N CHALLENGES “In a world of in creativity and transient specialisms - the generalist will be king” Time, energy, complexity, knowledge, resources, capability and the stamina of the human brain and body are prime limiters to progress - the 5 day, 9 to 5 working week is long gone - and we need help! - International organisations with of fi ces around the planet never sleep - Complex creativity and problem solving have no time schedule - Resources (technical & people) may not be available 24 x 7 - Team dispersion and video calls are creativity limiting - Time availability for keeping up to date is tight - Continuous education/up is a challenge - The machines might just save us ? A P o s s i b l e s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r T H E C F o W ? !
- 57. ATTITUDE What you do NOT Somewhere you go! A NEW BREED I come ready and capable - so I don’t need an ITC blended learning course! And by the way I am my own support…and this kit is mine! NOW where are the robots…. J u s t l e t m e a t i t !
- 58. Robots and Humans have a lot to learn from each other P O R T E N T / M Y G U E SS
- 59. IT REALLY IS U P T O U S ! Thank You https://petercochrane.com