For millennia people worked in relative stability with industries sustained by very little change for hundreds of years. Even the industrial revolution saw a high degree of stability after the initial disruption. Mining, foundries, railways, shipping, mills etc employed thousands for a lifetime. This saw the creation of new towns and cities dedicated to major industries and gave rise to the illusion of job security - a notion that persists in many political minds today.
In <50 years that heritage has been swept away by technology and globalisation. The future now belongs to the mobile, the connected, the networkers and the most adaptable. A lifetimes employment in one job in one sector living in one place is rare. Even mining and agriculture are increasingly automated to require fewer people with less muscle and more tech skills. And while the media feature the destruction of jobs and a total takeover by the machines, the empirical evidence shows a growing number of vacancies for the skilled and those educated to adapt to the new needs of an age of robotics and artificial intelligence.
Everybody, every society and country, now face significant challenges in the need to change and adapt to technological advance….
“ Exactly like Mother Nature and biological evolution, technological evolution shows no compassion and no care - it really is about the survival of the most adaptable”
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The Future of Work in a Technology Driven Age
1. The Future of Work
I n a Te c h n o l o g y D r i v e n A g e
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk
2. Fundamentals
Why and how we work !
1) To satisfy fast evolving needs and aspirations
2) We continually polish and advance our
tools and methods to achieve (1)
3) Our ability to advance (2) is now
exceeding our ability to change
Maslow’s notions remain more or less true with a degree of modification/upgrade
3. Axiomatic
Technology progress - Empowers people to be far more productive
- Always creates more jobs than it destroys
- Introduces more innovation & creativity
- Invokes far more +ve change than -ve
- Creates entirely new sectors & jobs
- Is the only route to sustainability
- Affords people more freedom
- Enables equitable societies
- Begets more technology
4. Axiomatic
R o b o t s a n d A I
A h u g e o p p o r t u n i t y
n o t a t h r e a t !
5. • Government
• Education
• Banking
• Legal
A x i o m a t i c
Our institutions are always
on the back foot
6. Other Bodies
Also fall further behind
• Some companies
• Political parties
• Some sectors
• Think tanks
• All unions
• +++++
8. C h a n g e
The New Stable
•Fundamentally driven by technology
•Demands more & more resources
•Increases population density
•Drives up living standards
•Creates ever more jobs
•Targets sustainability
•No sector is immune
•Creates new sectors
•Always accelerating
14. Automation
A d v a n c i n g a p a c e We o n l y e m p l o y p e o p l e w h e n
t h e y a r e c h e a p e r t h a n r o b o t s
Millions of jobs made obsolete and people
displaced, but even more new jobs are created
15. M y o p i a
S p e c i a l i s m s
“The drive towards increasing specialisation has returned
spectacular benefits in education, R&D, knowledge creation,
industry, farming and resources whilst clouding the bigger
picture and the really important goals”
16. G e n e r a l i s t s
M u l t i - d i s c i p l i n a r y
“In a connected and fast moving world we now need people
capable of spanning many different disciplines to ‘join the
dots’ and create solutions that are immediately effective and
have a reasonable longevity”
17. M y o p i c
E d u c a t i o n
A continuous stream of
students with honed skills
and remembered facts for a
world that has already died
or is on the way out !
“Creativity, innovation
and problem solving….
…now trump pure
academic attainment”
18. Re a l i s a t i o n
B y o n l y a ve r y f e w
“I never let my education
interfere with my learning”
M a r k Twa i n
19. S k i l l s
S p r e a d
The gap between academic
and artisan is closing fast!
“Every sector and every
job is embracing ever
more technology and
ever more change”
20. Source: David Deming Harvard
J o b S h a re %
USA 1980 - 2012
No change
Fell
Grew
21. Key Realisation
Fundamental to our situation
“Everything - our universe, lives and work
is non-linear at a fundamental level…
….simple thinking and solutions are
generally insufficient and can be
dangerous …..
…we are living at a time of
surprises and unintended
consequences”
22. C o m p l e x i t y
Beyond human ability
•Everything is now connected and dynamically changing
•The universe is fundamentally chaotic and non-linear
•Networked interdependence is expanding globally
•The law of unintended consequences is dominant
•Past experiences and instinct are unreliable
•Simple thinking is increasingly dangerous
•Machine augmentation is a future must
23. “Spanning many disciplines and scenarios to
‘join the dots’ will most likely be best
satisfied by a blend of human and machine
resources”
T h e N e w Po l y m a t h s
Complexity exceeding human ability
We need a greater diversity of skills,
exposures and experiences on a massive
scale…the world of the ‘simple’ is long gone!
24. Frequent high volume tasks
Combinatorially complex
Logical deductions
Vast networking
High precision
T h e C h a n g i n g B a l a n c e
Between human and machine employment
Novel problems and solution
Constrained networking
Adaptable dexterity
Abstract thought
Beyond logic
25. New Tech Destroys Jobs
Changing the nature of work & employment
Lost in my lifetime:
Typists
Dockers
Milkman
Blacksmith
Secretaries
Drawing office
Xerox operator
Elevator operator
Computer operator
Telephone operator
Comptometer operator
Financial report writers
++++
Testers
Tasters
Analysts
Advisors
Educators
Reporters
Strategists
Call centres
Report writers
Personal bankers
Personal assistants
Answering services
Investment bankers
Warehouse People
Personal Assistant
Tech suppor t
Stock Trader
Receptionist
Forecasters
Train driver
Researcher
Journalist
Drivers
Pilots
++++
Losses yet to come:
26. Jobs to come:
3/4D Designer
Risk Profilers
Cyborg Engineer
Protein Designer
Crime Predictor
Digital Historian
Information Caretaker
Truth Engine Mediator
N-D Geometry Analyst
Component Repurposer
Genome-Protein Activators
++++
Material Programmer
Recycling Designers
Interface Designers
Machine Mediators
Wisdom Archivists
Genome Designer
Material Designer
Wisdom Monitors
Trouble Shooters
Nano-Engineers
Bio-Engineers
++++
Jobs to Be enhanced:
Leader
Mentor
Fabricator
Geneticist
Generalist
Proteomist
Multi-designer
Problem solver
Longevity advisor
Big Data Analyst
Cellular programmer
Material programmer
++++
Complexity analysts
Security Experts
Entrepreneurs
Technologists
Consultants
Architects
Detectives
Designers
Engineers
Modellers
Scientists
Medics
++++
Jobs Created/Enhanced
Changing the nature of work & employment
27. Radical Disruption
Already with us and more to come
World’s largest telephone
company has no network
World’s largest retailer
has no inventory
World’s largest taxi
company has no cars
World’s movie house
has no cinemas
World’s largest hotel
has no buildings
World’s largest software
vendor writes no code
28. N o G o i n g B a c k
O u r d e p e n d e n c e i s t o t a l
•The technologies of the past cannot sustain ~7Bn people
•Industries of the past cannot achieve sustainability
•Economic and societal models have to change
•Management thinking/practice has to change
•The politics of the past will not work
Making what we have more efficient
only puts off the day of collapse!
29. Tools Amplify Our Abilities
From the hammer and axe to the computer and AI
Muscle Mind
Make Modify Mend Think Invent Innovate
Tools Technology Science Understanding Knowledge
30. W A R
G A M I N G
A r t i f i c i a l
I n t e l l i g e n c e
M
odelling
Com
puter
M at e r i a l
S c i e n c e
Clouds
B I G
D A T A
BYOD
BMOB
DIY IT
Sensors
Robots
C y b e r
Security
Nano
Bio
Some Big Game Changers
We have to adapt and adopt faster
31. Future Work
Expansive & amplified
Open
Inclusive
Transparent
Merit Based
NetworkedDynamic
Adaptive
Customised
ShortTerm
AssignmentBased
Team Specific
Sporadic
Call Off
SolutionFocussed
Multi-Discipline
Global
Fast
Borderless
CrossCompany
Adaptive
RightFirstTime
32. P e r s p e c t i v e
D y n a m i c c h a n g e n o w
Silos
Drones
Ordered
Managers
Employees
Top Down
Controlled
Insourcing
Functionaries
Presentations
Money Driven
Teams
Individuals
Cha ot ic
L e a d e r s
Advocates
Bottom Up
Uncontrolled
Outsourcing
Problem Solvers
P r o t o t y p e s
Innovation Led
Slow Changing: mass production,
assembly line, mining, farming,
fishing, food production…
Fast Changing: high tech,
media, R&D, design, evolving
line
Customers moving up the design chain
33. P e r s p e c t i v e
C o p i n g w i t h c h a n g e
Do what you do best…
…and link to the rest
Tech yourself complex skills…
…and subsume the big ideas
34. We k n o w w h a t w e d o n ’ t u n d e r s t a n d
W e d o n ’ t k n o w w h a t w e d o n ’ t k n o w !
Our Biggest Challenges
O u r g r o w i n g c o l l e c t i v e i g n o r a n c e
35. We cannot predict with any accuracy:
- what people will do with new tech
- what companies will do with new tech
- the creation of new business models/markets
Our Biggest Challenges
M a n a g i n g t h e p r o c e s s o f c h a n g e
We have a dismal record of:
- realising smooth societal adaptation
- introducing change without massive disruption
“We face a future of continual and accelerating change”
36. resist or Adapt ?
The Survival of the fast
I n n o v a t o r s
I n r e a l i t y w e h a v e n o c h o i c e