Presented @ The AI Summit, Olympia, London, 29 Nov 2017 In a world that is getting more connected and complex by the day, where we need to produce and distribute more at a lower and lower cost to the planet to achieve sustainability, we see the Japanese embracing robotics and AI with great confidence. They see both as part of the solution to many of their societal, care and industrial problems and limitations, and they assign some level of life quality to both. Meanwhile, throughout the West a debate rages on the dangers, real and imaginary. These are mainly based on fear created by ignorance, the Hollywood Effect (eg Terminator and AI) bolstered by celebrities issuing warnings whilst that never having designed or operated an AI system! So, what is the reality? Are there any real dangers? Of course, there always are with all new technologies, but as ever, engineers and scientists are continually reviewing what can and should be done. The reality is; the AI cat is well and truly out of the bag! It has already seen widespread deployments across manufacturing industry, transport, logistics, and of course the medical and care sectors. There is no going back, we are now totally dependant! To date all of our AI has been ‘Narrow’ and simple; very limited and generally addressing a singular or single class of problem. We have IBM Watson in the lead with its breadth of analysis and diagnostic abilities, whilst Google AlphaGO is in the lead in the way it is able to learn games and processes sans human help. But in the next two phases leading to General (or Wide) AI we are heading toward true sentience, self awareness, and full autonomy of access and action. This general trajectory is of some concern and the focus of this presentation. So, we examine the characteristics of each phase and the techniques that could be and are being developed and deployed to avert the much heralded ‘Destruction of the Human Race’ to come. In reality, military hunter killer robots are already being developed with some trials and deployments underway. As ever, AI and Robotic technologies have a huge upside, but potentially with a bigger that usual downside! In reality, the real problem, threat and risks have little to do with the technologies, they are almost entirely in the hands of their human masters!

1. Trust and Safeguards
Peter Cochrane
AI Summit, Olympia, London
29 November 2017
cochrane.org.uk

2. W h e r e A r e W e To d ay?
At the foothills of AI we have a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
Singular Problem Solving
with human involvement
in coding and tuning
Human based algorithm
Top down, Bottom up
Machine learning
2) Learning
3) Cognitive
4) Wide

3. W h e r e A r e W e To d ay?
At the foothills of AI we have a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
Singular Problem Solving
with human involvement
in coding and tuning
Human based algorithm
Top down, Bottom up
Machine learning
2) Learning
3) Cognitive
4) Wide
Most AI today
is here as is
so very easy
Google
alphago
IBM
Watson

4. W h e r e A r e W e To d ay?
At the foothills of AI we have a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
Singular Problem Solving
with human involvement
in coding and tuning
Human based algorithm
Top down, Bottom up
Machine learning
Multiple Problem Classes
with interactive memory
- little or no human help
Initial algorithms from (1) + a learning
abilty - solves problems by observing,
playing and creating rule sets
2) Learning
3) Cognitive
4) Wide
A wide range of problem
sets - with cognition &
near 100% autonomy
Initial algorithms from (2) + a degree
of understanding - sees new ways of
analysis and solution formulation
Can address any problem
type/set - has high level
context/self awareness
A completely new ‘mind’ proposition
in a variety of species connected to
the wider environment - autonomous
Most AI today
is here as is
so very easy
Google
alphago
IBM
Watson

5. W h e r e A r e W e To d ay?
At the foothills of AI we have a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
Singular Problem Solving
with human involvement
in coding and tuning
Human based algorithm
Top down, Bottom up
Machine learning
Multiple Problem Classes
with interactive memory
- little or no human help
Initial algorithms from (1) + a learning
abilty - solves problems by observing,
playing and creating rule sets
2) Learning
3) Cognitive
4) Wide
A wide range of problem
sets - with cognition &
near 100% autonomy
Initial algorithms from (2) + a degree
of understanding - sees new ways of
analysis and solution formulation
Can address any problem
type/set - has high level
context/self awareness
A completely new ‘mind’ proposition
in a variety of species connected to
the wider environment - autonomous
Machine influence
Human influence
Most AI today
is here as is
so very easy
Google
alphago
IBM
Watson
Isolated
Fixed
Machines
Networked
Fixed
Machines
Networked
Fixed/Mobile
With Sensors
Networked
Fixed/Mobile
With Full I/O

6. W h e r e A r e W e To d ay?
At the foothills of AI we have a mountain to climb
Intelligence
Abilities
Categories
1) Narrow
Singular Problem Solving
with human involvement
in coding and tuning
Human based algorithm
Top down, Bottom up
Machine learning
Multiple Problem Classes
with interactive memory
- little or no human help
Initial algorithms from (1) + a learning
abilty - solves problems by observing,
playing and creating rule sets
2) Learning
3) Cognitive
4) Wide
A wide range of problem
sets - with cognition &
near 100% autonomy
Initial algorithms from (2) + a degree
of understanding - sees new ways of
analysis and solution formulation
Can address any problem
type/set - has high level
context/self awareness
A completely new ‘mind’ proposition
in a variety of species connected to
the wider environment - autonomous
Machine influence
Human influence
Most AI today
is here as is
so very easy
Google
alphago
IBM
Watson
Isolated
Fixed
Machines
Networked
Fixed
Machines
Networked
Fixed/Mobile
With Sensors
Networked
Fixed/Mobile
With Full I/O
Main Frame
Main Frame
PC Laptop
Main Frame
PC Laptop
Mobile
Main Frame
PC Laptop
Mobile Robot
Sentient
Machines
Sentient
Lifeforms
Cyborgs

7. Languages &Techniques
The biggest fraction of the technology mixes today
TechniquesSoftware

10. An A.I. system:
1) Must be subject to the full gamut of laws that apply to its human operator/creator
2) Must clearly disclose that it is not human
3) Cannot retain or disclose confidential information without explicit approval from the source
Etzioni’s 2017
A Robot must:
0) Not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm
1) Not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm
2) Obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the 1st Law
3) Protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or 2nd Law
Asimov’ 1942
LAWS To Be HEEDED ?
Ignored by governments & industry to date

11. An A.I. system:
1) Must be subject to the full gamut of laws that apply to its human operator/creator
2) Must clearly disclose that it is not human
3) Cannot retain or disclose confidential information without explicit approval from the source
Etzioni’s 2017
A Robot must:
0) Not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm
1) Not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm
2) Obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the 1st Law
3) Protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or 2nd Law
Asimov’ 1942
LAWS To Be HEEDED ?
Ignored by governments & industry to date
NEVER APPLIED
N o
C h a n c e

12. S T O P P R ESS
Killer AI & Robots are GO!
A I A R M S
RACE IS GO

13. ONLY ONE
All that is needed
Mobile AI/Robotic weapon platforms
demand far less resources than any
atom bomb and/or missile program
Numerous rogue states will
quickly embrace this new
opportunity!
W
e a p o n s
C o n t r o l
S E E M S
I m p o s s i b l e

14. Etzioni’s 2017
AI & Robots must:
0) Not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm
1) Not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm
2) Obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the 1st Law
3) Protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or 2nd Law
4) Be subject to the full gamut of laws that apply to its human operator/creator
5) Clearly disclose that it is/they are not human
6) Not retain or disclose confidential information without explicit approval from the source
7) Be bounded in their actions & inaction according to the safety requirements of humans and their systems
8) Not violate human social, cultural, safety and legal norms
9) ????
Asimov’ 1942
LAWS To Be combineD ?
To be ignored by future governments & industry

15. Etzioni’s 2017
AI & Robots must:
0) Not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm
1) Not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm
2) Obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the 1st Law
3) Protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or 2nd Law
4) Be subject to the full gamut of laws that apply to its human operator/creator
5) Clearly disclose that it is/they are not human
6) Not retain or disclose confidential information without explicit approval from the source
7) Be bounded in their actions & inaction according to the safety requirements of humans and their systems
8) Not violate human social, cultural, safety and legal norms
9) ????
Asimov’ 1942
LAWS To Be combineD ?
To be ignored by future governments & industry
L e g a l
e
n
f
o
r
c
e
m
e
n
t
v e r y
u n l i k e l y

16. Meanw hile in industry ?
People protected from robots by wire cages and bars

19. A s s i s t a n t
AT HOME in office
People are using and working with AI
AI is increasingly all pervasive in homes, offices, appliances, vehicles, mobiles
and our trust and dependency is building fast - it is changing everything…

20. Fa m i l i a r i t y
Just a repeat of the past ?
Faster, more profound,
inclusive and impactful
with an acceleration of
other technologies and
big changes in the way
we work and live…..
A greater dependency
and risk of human
errors/mistakes
Job creation on huge
scale but with vast
shortages of skilled
and capable people

21. Breeds trust & dependency
F a m i l i a r i t y
It takes time: builds slowly
along with the ability to
work together in teams
using tools, tech and nets
to collaborate globally +++
AI will soon be doing trust and
dependency rankings of us; our
teams, tools, facilities, plant &
companies along with other AI
systems +++ It is an essential
for their real world modelling
Man Woman
Machine
A triad of trust
mechanisms at
work here
A population of ’N’ machines
could see ≤ N(N-1) different
trust mechanisms at work at
the same time

22. SAFEGUARDS
Operational measures
Testing
Fixed, Combinatorial, Dynamic
- Gold standard problem checks
- M a t h p ro v a b l e v e r i f i c a t i o n s
- W i t h i n n o r m a l i n p u t r a n g e
- Beyond normal input range
- A n o m a l y t e s t a n d s e a rc h
- Structured walk through
- Monte Carlo assessment
- Dynamic flood testing
- Pre-release real data
- R e g r e s s i o n t e s t i n g
- S t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s
- Sensitivity analysis
- New developments

23. SAFEGUARDS
Operational measures
Constrainers
Fixed, Combinatorial, Dynamic
- Input sensor/data range limiters
- O u t p u t a c t u a t o r / d a t a l i m i t e r s
- A n o m a l y d e t e c t i o n / w a r n i n g s
- H i s t o r i c a l e x c e p t i o n f l a g s
- Human intervention alerts
- M 2 M r a n g e c o m p a r i s o n s
- C o m p l i a n c e m o n i t o r i n g
- Statistical I/O trending
- New developments
- Core activity flags
- FlOP counter alerts
- Energy consumption alarm

24. H u m a n S a f e t y
Rooms, floors, cages and barriers
We have kept machines and people well apart for
decades and only recently have we considered it
safe to mix the two in the same space…

25. H u m a n S a f e t y
Restricted inputs/outputs by design
This philosophy is applicable to AI and Intelligent robotics
and by default, industry, appliance and vehicle producers
et al are obeying ‘The Laws of Robotics and AI’ to date
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6UxmpbSQGU&ab_channel=JustWowme

26. FAR FUTURE
AI + Human guardians
Being discussed, debated and
Initially researched at this time:
Policing AI into the future by Humans,
AI, Bots, Machines, Networks:
- Interrogators
- Enforcers
- Monitors
- Auditors
- Ethicists A lot of research/thinking
required as a sentient and
creative AI may be capable
of outsmarting any and all
guardianship systems

27. Thank You
www.cochrane.org.uk
What are these crazy humans
planning to do next ?? They are
the biggest risk and not us!!