Only 40 years ago, the rate of technologically driven change was such that companies could re-organize efficiently and economically over considerable periods of time, but about 30 years ago this changed as the arrival of new technologies accelerated. We effectively moved from a world of slow periodic changes to one where change became a continuum. The leading-edge sectors were fast to recognize and adopt this new mode of continual adaptation driven by new technologies. This saw these ever more efficient and expansive companies dominating some sectors. For the majority, however, it seems that this transition was not recognized until relatively recently, and a so new movement was born under the banner of digitalization. This not only impacts the way people work, it affects company operations and changes markets, and it does so suddenly!. Perhaps the most impactive and recent driver of change in this regard has been COVID which saw the adoption of video conferencing and working as a survival imperative in much less than a month. This now stands as a beacon of proof that companies, organizations, and society, can indeed change and adapt to the new at a rate previously considered impossible. The big danger for digitalization programmes now is the simple-minded view that there are singular (magic) solutions that fit every company and organization, but this is not the case. The reality is that the needs and culture of an organization are not the same and may not be uniform from top to bottom. Manufacturing necessitates very steep hierarchical management structures and tight control to ensure the consistency of the quality of products. On the other hand, a research laboratory or design company requires a low flat management hierarchy and an apparently relaxed level of control. This is absolutely necessary to foster creativity, innovation, and invention. This presentation gives practical examples of management and organizational, extremes. We then go on to highlight the need to embrace AI and Quantum Computing over the coming decade to deal with future technologies, operating and market complexity.

1. R e s u r g e n c e
of Technology
Driven Change
Professor Peter Cochrane OBE DSc
www.petercochrane.com

2. H Y P O T H E S I S
A s l e e p a t t h e w h e e l !
“ T h i s ‘ a p p a r e n t r e v o l u t i o n ’ h a s b e e n o n t h e g o
a n d p r o g r e s s i n g f o r > 3 0 y e a r s , b u t f o r m a n y i t
h a s s u d d e n l y b e c o m e m i s s i o n c r i t i c a l ”
Digitisation: analogue to the digital transformation
Digitalisation: impacts the way people work
How: building operational/competitive advantage by
continuously deploying new tech at scale

3. T h e b i g Q u e s t i o n
Why has it been invisible to so many?
- Poor growth
- No future radar
- No R&D program
- Bottom line focus
- A lack of ambition
- Firefighting culture
- Short term thinking
- Fighting for survival
- Inadequate investment
- Total focus on e
ffi
ciency
- No time to think or plan
+++
“Stasis is comfortable”
“The only human that likes
change is a wet baby”

4. R a t e o f C h a n g e
C r i t i c a l a c c e l e r a t i o n b y t e c h ’
M a r k e t s
N e t w o r k s
R e s e a r c h
I n v e n t i o n
I n n o v a t i o n
C o m p e t i t i o n
P ro d u c t i v i t y
C o m p l e x i t y
C o n n e c t s
P r o d u c t s
S e r v i c e s
“ Te c h n o l o g y a d v a n c e s a t a n e x p o n e n t i a l
r a t e , b u t a d o p t i o n h a s b e e n d i c t a t e d b y
t h e r a t e o f h u m a n a c c e p t a n c e ”

5. R a t e o f C h a n g e
C r i t i c a l a c c e l e r a t i o n b y t e c h ’
M a r k e t s
N e t w o r k s
R e s e a r c h
I n v e n t i o n
I n n o v a t i o n
C o m p e t i t i o n
P ro d u c t i v i t y
C o m p l e x i t y
C o n n e c t s
P r o d u c t s
S e r v i c e s
“ Te c h n o l o g y a d v a n c e s a t a n e x p o n e n t i a l
r a t e , b u t a d o p t i o n h a s b e e n d i c t a t e d b y
t h e r a t e o f h u m a n a c c e p t a n c e ”
T h e n e w w i n d o w s w e a r e n o w
s e e i n g w i l l n o t o n l y w i p e o u t
l a g g a r d c o m p a n i e s , t h e y w i l l
w i p e o u t e n t i r e s e c t o r s !
S u d d e n ( s u r p r i s e ) l e a p s o c c u r
w h e n o u r c o m p u t i n g p o w e r
r e a l i s e s a n e w a b i l i t y w i n d o w
- e . g . t h e P C , m o b i l e a n d A I

6. 2010 2020 2030
2000
1990
1980
1960
1k
10k
100k
1M
10M
100M
1G
10G
100G
1T
IBM Deep Blue
Chess Champion
Alpha GO Champion
Deep Stack
Poker Champion
Pluribus Poker World Champion
Alpha Fold 200M human protein decode
Amazon Alexa Launch
Watson Jeopardy TV Quiz Champion
IBM Watson superior medical diagnosis
GPT3
GPT2
GPT1 = 117M Parameters
GPT2 = 1.5Bn
GPT3 = 175Bn
GPT4 = 1.8 - 100Tn?
Parameters = The weighting
values at each network node
Note that no official figures
have been released re GPT4
at the time of writing
GPT4
Num
ber
of
Tran
sist
ors
/Ch
ip T E C H A D VA N C E
A p p l i e s t o m o s t s e c t o r s
Generative Pre-trained Transformer

7. 1Bn
1Tn
2000 2010 2020
Language
Vision
Image
Creation
Number
of
Parameters
~Neural
Weightings
Wn
1k
1M
GPT2
GPT3
GPT4
1990
GPT1
Alexa Alpha Fold
Alpha GO
Mid-journey
T E C H P r e s s u r e S
I n v o k i n g c h a n g e i n a l l s e c t o r s

8. B I G r e o r g a n i s at i o n s
A n e x p e n s i v e p a t h t o f a i l u r e
I f y o u r c o m p a n y f e e l s
r e m o t e l y l i k e t h i s , t h e n
i t i s t i m e f o r a r e t h i n k ,
n o t a r e o r g a n i s a t i o n !

9. T H E B I G G E S T S O C I E T Y
C H A N G E A G E N T E V E R ?
C O V I D t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i n j u s t t w o w e e k s

10. E V E R Y T H I N G
WAS POSSIBLE
J D I b e c a m e t h e n o r m !
M o s t l y, i t w a s e f f e c t i v e ,
a p p r o p r i a t e , w o r k e d
w e l l , a n d w a s l a r g e l y
s e l f o r g a n i s e d …

11. E V E R Y T H I N G
WAS POSSIBLE
J D I b e c a m e t h e n o r m !

12. I N A B L I N K !
J D I b e c a m e t h e n o r m
A re s p o n s i v e / a d a p t a b l e
f i r s t m o v e r w o n t h e d a y
“ A n d i t re a l l y w a s o n l y
a ~ 1 4 d a y r e v o l u t i o n
f o r t h e l e a d a d o p t e r s ”

13. A N E W N O R M
N O W O B T A I N S
F l e x i b l e w o r k i n g m o d e s !
C o n t ro l f re a k m a n a g e r s
s t r u g g l e d w i t h C O V I D
i n d u c e d c h a n g e & s t i l l
s t r u g g l e a s s t a ff v o t e
w i t h t h e i r f e e t !
“ F l e x i b l e o ff i c e , h o m e ,
& m o b i l e w o r k i n g s e e s
p o s i t i v e re t u r n s a c ro s s
t h e b o a rd a l o n g w i t h
h i g h e r p ro d u c t i v i t y ”

14. Q E D
“ P e o p l e , C o m p a n i e s I n s t i t u t i o n s , G o v e r n m e n t s e t a l
c a n a d o p t , a d a p t , c h a n g e f a s t i f t h e i r s u r v i v a l i s a t
s t a k e , b u t t h e f e w t h a t c a n n o t f a l l b y t h e w a y s i d e ”

15. B I G C H A n g e s
R e c e n t t e c h n o l o g i e s
P C
M o b i l e s
I n t e r n e t
O n l i n e R e t a i l
Wo r k i n g o n l i n e
C l o u d N e t w o r k s
D a t a A n a l y t i c s
BIG/Small Data
Block Chain
Robotics
AI
A d v i c e :
E m b r a c e a n d p l a y w i t h A I n o w
R e a d u p o n Q u a n t u m C o m p u t i n g
“ C o n t i n u a l l y m o n i t o r t e c h n o l o g y
d e v e l o p m e n t s ; c o n s i d e r h o w t h e y
m i g h t i m p a c t y o u r o p e r a t i o n s &
i n v e s t i n t h o s e t h a t b r i n g s o m e
t r a c t a b l e a d v a n t a g e ”

16. T H E R E A R E N O
SUCH SOLUTIONS

17. A N D T H E S E
R a r e l y F I T

18. Competition Blind
Technophobia
E
ffi
ciency = the kiss of death for any business!
Short Termism
Under Investment
SEGUAE: DEATH & FAIURE
“Death/Failure come from a direction
your are not looking, by a mechanism
you did not anticipate, at a time that
is really inconvenient”

19. A X I O M AT I C
Complexity/Performance/Brittleness
Re
liab
ility
/Re
silie
nce
/Ad
apt
abi
lity
W h e r e d o e s y o u r
o r g a n i s a t i o n s i t ?
R O I & l o n g e v i t y
c o m e a t a p r i c e !

20. Brittleness = “The ‘stochastic probability’ that a business /
system will fail and the manner of the failure with time”
OBSERVATIONS
Feature = “The higher the ef
fi
ciency of a system/business the
greater the probability of a sudden and catastrophic failure”
Reliability = “The probability of achieving given conditions
and performing satisfactorily for a given period of time”
Resilience = “The recovery ability of a system/business from
adverse conditions/events that exceed its operating envelope”

21. AXIOMS
“No system is stronger than
its weakest link”
“No system is ever simpler than its most
complex element”
“No system is free
of failures”

22. M a n a g e m e n t
E x t r e m e s
Predetermined and rehearsed operating
modes - highly disciplined process and rule
bound, limited adaptability - deeply
hierarchical management structure
Well de
fi
ned objectives with a wide latitude
on modes and freedom of action - reactive,
innovative, adaptive, with a JFDI focus -
shallow management structure

23. M a n a g e m e n t
E x t r e m e s
Predetermined and rehearsed operating
modes - highly disciplined process and rule
bound, limited adaptability - deeply
hierarchical management structure
Well de
fi
ned objectives with a wide latitude
on modes and freedom of action - reactive,
innovative, adaptive, with a JFDI focus -
shallow management structure
O r g a n i s a t i o n s & c o m p a n i e s
s p a n t h e s e e x t r e m e s b u t
f i n d i t d i f f i c u l t t o a c c e p t a
m i x o f m o d e s f o r d i f f e r e n t
o p e r a t i o n a l u n i t s

24. R I G I D I T Y R U L E S
“ T h e f e w e r t h e p e o p l e
i n v o l v e d t h e b e t t e r
t h e p r o d u c t q u a l i t y ”

25. Organisations of this scale and structure
fi
nd it hard/
impossible to change, innovate and subsume the new
P r o c e s s
F o c u s s e d
V e s t e d i n t e r e s t s , c u l t u r a l
c l a s h e s , s a f e t y c o n c e r n s ,
k i n g d o m p r o t e c t i o n , f u n d i n g ,
l e f t / r i g h t h a n d i n v i s i b i l i t y …

26. Organised as a group of mini-companies each
with their own pro
fi
t and loss account
T H E H P W A Y
Divisionalise
Health
Devices
Defence
Education
Computing
Automation
Instrumentation
Time Metrology
Pocket Calculators
+++

27. T h r e e E x e m p l a r
C o m p a n y c a s e s
T h e s e o p e r a t i o n s w e r e
c u s t o m c o n f i g u r e d a n d
e n g i n e e r e d t o a p e a k o f
s u c c e s s
B e s t A d v i c e : g o w i t h w h a t
w o r k s a n d b e p r e p a r e d
t o i g n o r e e s t a b l i s h e d
w i s d o m s p r a c t i c e s
I t i s e s s e n t i a l t o r e c r u i t
g o o d p e o p l e , e m p o w e r
t h e m , a n d l e t t h e m d o
t h e i r j o b …
Yo u s o m e t i m e s h a v e
t o b e m o r e a l e a d e r
t h a n a m a n a g e r, a n d
i t i s o f t e n a d u a l r o l e

28. I C P r o d u c t
P r o d u c t i o n
1 9 8 3 - 1 9 9 0
Well de
fi
ned process with no latitude
for freedom of action - rules and
standards, documented processes,
precision control, QA and yield de
fi
ned
every operational and delivery aspect!
Deep Rigid Hierarchy

29. 1 k s t r o n g
R & D L a b
1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 9
Fire Brigade
Solving Immediate
Problems
$30% of budget
3 - 7 Year Out
Products Services
Solutions
$25% of budget
1 - 3 Year Out
Products
Solutions
$30% of budget $10% of budget
Skunk Works
$5% of
budget
Funded Academic R&D
Education,Training, Visiting
Academics +PhD Students
Staff Exchange Abroad
R&D
R&D
R&D
Focused on Known Company
and Customer
Needs
Industry
Links
.gov
Links

30. 1 k s t r o n g
R & D L a b
1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 9
Fire Brigade
Solving Immediate
Problems
$30% of budget
3 - 7 Year Out
Products Services
Solutions
$25% of budget
1 - 3 Year Out
Products
Solutions
$30% of budget $10% of budget
Skunk Works
$5% of
budget
Funded Academic R&D
Education,Training, Visiting
Academics +PhD Students
Staff Exchange Abroad
R&D
R&D
R&D
Focused on Known Company
and Customer
Needs
Industry
Links
.gov
Links

31. 1 k s t r o n g
R & D L a b
1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 9
Fire Brigade
Solving Immediate
Problems
$30% of budget
3 - 7 Year Out
Products Services
Solutions
$25% of budget
1 - 3 Year Out
Products
Solutions
$30% of budget $10% of budget
Skunk Works
$5% of
budget
Funded Academic R&D
Education,Training, Visiting
Academics +PhD Students
Staff Exchange Abroad
R&D
R&D
R&D
Focused on Known Company
and Customer
Needs
Industry
Links
.gov
Links
RoI

32. Responsible for strategy, R&D direction funding, budget allocation, board reports
Responsible for budget spend, resource and R&D orchestration
Individual R&D Teams each with a Team Leader
M a n a g e m e n t
A c t u a l i t i e s
An absolute focus on individual empowerment
and responsibility with a clear mandate for every
team member to push the boundaries within the
limits of the law and ethical/professional practices

33. Sa n Jose CA
I n c u b a t o r
1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 2
• Vetting new ideas
• Reviewing tech realisation
• Building a business model
• Patent/publication search
• Checking all legal aspects
• Securing a capable team
• Realise working prototype
• Secure
fi
rst round funding
• Form a workable company
• Managing through to market
• Secure
fi
rst sales/ funding
• Market launch
• +++++
A hybrid mixed operating model to the extreme

34. Sa n Jose CA
I n c u b a t o r
1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 2
• Vetting new ideas
• Reviewing tech realisation
• Building a business model
• Patent/publication search
• Checking all legal aspects
• Securing a capable team
• Realise working prototype
• Secure
fi
rst round funding
• Form a workable company
• Managing through to market
• Secure
fi
rst sales/ funding
• Market launch
• +++++
A hybrid mixed operating model to the extreme
Founders
In House
Experts
Virtual development and management teams

35. SEGUAE: Exponential E ducati on

36. SEGUAE: Exponential Te ch
Watch:
• Smarts
• Coatings
• Self healing
• Composites
• Self repairing
• Material science
• Nono - Bio Tech
• Integrated Tech
• AI, AL, Quantum
• +++

37. SEGUAE: Exponential
INTE GR AT ION
Adaptable component design,
fl
exible production
and assembly all seen and con
fi
gured as one to
minimise the number of parts and operations

38. B I G C H A L L E N G E S
A c c e l e r a t e d b y t e c h n o l o g i e s
S u s t a i n a b i l i t y
A g i n g S o c i e t i e s
C l i m a t e C h a n g e
F i n i t e R e s o u rc e s
E c o n o m i c M o d e l s
P o p u l a t i o n G ro w t h
We a l t h D i s t r i b u t i o n
Environmental D a m a g e
A t T h e C o r e :
N e w M a t e r i a l s
R a d i c a l L o g i s t i c s
N e w M a n u f a c t u r i n g Te c h n i q u e s
P r o v i d i n g m u c h m o r e w i t h m u c h l e s s

39. “There are no simple solutions to complex problems”
H Y P o t h e s i s
O u r b i g g e s t c h a l l e n g e
“The universe is inherently complex”
“We are linear thinkers”
“ N o t o n l y i s o u r u n i v e r s e s t r a n g e r
t h a n w e t h i n k , i t i s s t r a n g e r t h a n
w e c a n t h i n k ”
W e r n e r H e i s e n b e r g
“ W e c a n n o t s o l v e p r o b l e m s
b y u s i n g t h e s a m e t h i n k i n g
w h e n w e c r e a t e d t h e m ”
A l b e r t E i n s t e i n

40. C O M P L E X I T Y
O u r b i g g e s t c h a l l e n g e
W e d o n o t h a v e :
T h e m a t h e m a t i c s
A n y g e n e r a l i s e d m o d e l s
C o m p u t e r s p o w e r f u l e n o u g h
“ T h i s i s w h y w e n e e d
Q u a n t u m C o m p u t e r s
a n d A I ”
“ S i m p l e A B C t h i n k i n g
& p r o b l e m s o l v i n g n o
l o n g e r f i t t h e b i l l ”

41. C h a l l e n g e
S i m p l e i s s e d u c t i v e
“ S i m p l e s o l u t i o n s t a k e n o t i m e
o r e n e r g y t o f o r m u l a t e a n d
s u b s u m e ”
“ C o m p l e x s o l u t i o n s a r e h a r d t o
f o r m u l a t e , u n d e r s t a n d a n d
s u b s u m e ”

42. “There are no simple solutions to complex problems”
H Y P o t h e s i s
O u r b i g g e s t c h a l l e n g e
“The universe is inherently complex”
“We are linear thinkers”
C O N S E Q U E N C E
M a n agement, Economics,
Politics, Society, Conflict, ++

43. T o b e C l e a r
’ n ’ - d i m e n s i o n a l l i m i t s
“ T h e b i g a n d i m p o r t a n t p r o b l e m s w e n o w f a c e
t y p i c a l l y i n v o l v e 1 0 0 s - 1 0 0 0 s o f v a r i a b l e s …
a n d w e n e e d m o r e a d v a n c e d A I p l u s Q C ”
M a t h e m a t i c a l l i m i t a t i o n : B e y o n d ‘ O r d e r 4 ’ o u r s o l u t i o n s
a r e v e r y l i m i t e d a n d o f t e n q u e s t i o n a b l e . A b o v e O r d e r 5
w e a r e d e a d i n t h e w a t e r !
H u m a n l i m i t a t i o n : B e y o n d ‘ O r d e r 5 - 7 ’ o u r m e n t a l a b i l i t y
i s v e r y l i m i t e d a n d m o s t l y f a i l s u s .

44. T O B E C L E A R
AI Design & Robotic manufacture
now > 2Bn devices per year
“ Te c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s i s n o t g o i n g
t o s t o p o r g o i n t o r e v e r s e g e a r
w i t h o u t s o m e t e r r i b l e
h u m a n c o s t ”
“ T h e s e a r e a l l c o m p u t i n g p l a t f o r m s
t h a t s u p p o r t A I a n d n u m b e r > 2 0 B n ”
S o c i e t y 5 . 0 i s i n h e r e n t l y
e v o l u t i o n a r y, n o n - l i n e a r,
c o m p l e x , a n d m o s t l y o f f
t h e h u m a n s c a l e …
To b e a t o t a l s u c c e s s
w e n e e d a s y m b i o s i s o f
m a n k i n d a n d m a c h i n e …

45. T o b e C l e a r
’ n ’ - d i m e n s i o n a l l i m i t s
M a t h e m a t i c a l l i m i t a t i o n : B e y o n d ‘ O r d e r 4 ’ o u r s o l u t i o n s
a r e v e r y l i m i t e d a n d o f t e n q u e s t i o n a b l e . A b o v e O r d e r 5
w e a r e d e a d i n t h e w a t e r !
H u m a n l i m i t a t i o n : B e y o n d ‘ O r d e r 5 - 7 ’ o u r m e n t a l a b i l i t y
i s v e r y l i m i t e d a n d m o s t l y f a i l s u s .
Thank You
“ We a r e e n t e r i n g a n e w e r a
d e m a n d i n g n e w t h i n k i n g ,
t e c h n o l o g i e s & s o l u t i o n s ”
p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m