The Philosophy of Science

The Philosophy
O f S c i e n c e
P r o f P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E D S c
w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m

UNIQUEly
Empowering
“No other framework has given
the human race so much
knowledge & capability
across the span of the
known universe”
“Without science we
would know and
understand
nothing”

Recurring
Realisation
Many civilisations engaged in ‘science’ to a
greater or lesser degree, but it turned out to
be unsustainable due to a series of reasons
- Social/Political instability/collapse
- Inadequate/unavailable resources
- Numbering and writing system
- No formulaic methodologies
- Lack of publication media
- No systematic education
- Lack of sharing culture
- A mix off belief, superstition, guessing
- No centres of excellence/expertise
- No centralised reference library
- A lack of substantiated facts
- Isolated practitioners
- Inconsistent leaders
- ++++++

Recurring
Realisation
Philosophy is the science which considers truth & reality
“The prime forms of beauty are order, symmetry, de
fi
niteness, which the mathematical
sciences demonstrate in a special degree”
Philosophy begins with wonder
“A mark of an educated mind is to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it”

Science
Belief
Systems
Prescriptive
Truths & Certainty
Easy to Understand
no Effort to Subsume
Dynamic
Hard Won
Uncertain Truths
Struggles

Dunning-Krueger effect
Psychological Paradox: The less educated/
competent people tend to see themselves as
superior whilst the well educated and competent
often doubt themselves and their abilities.
Charles Darwin: "Ignorance is more likely to
engender con
fi
dence than knowledge"
Bertrand Russell: "An unpleasant quality of our
time is that those who are con
fi
dent are stupid,
and those with deep understanding are full of
doubt and indecision."
D-K Research Starting Point
The failure to recognise mistakes reinforces self-confidence, self-belief,
and the sense of superiority

Philosophy
OF Science
Epistemology
Ontology
Idealism
Realism
Phenomenology
Concerning the
nature of reality
Empiricism
Rationalism
Convergence
Concerning the
creation of knowledge

ONTOLOGY
Idealism
Realism
Phenomenology
Everything is a product of our perception and mind
Equates to common sense
Our perception of the world is built by our conscious mind
“This may work in major way for the soft sciences such
as sociology and psychology, but the contribution to
physics, chemistry, cosmology et al is minimal”
“Common sense only works for a world on a human scale -
at the extremes of the very big and very small there is no
common sense”

Epistemology
Phenomenology
Knowledge is built inductively - there is no a-priori experience
Deductive reasoning creates knowledge
Arguments re rationalism and empiricism combined continue
“This is the core of why we need experimentation and
observation: accepting nothing, no fact or truth, until it is
tested and proven; continually testing what we think is true;
and be prepared to adjust our world view on the basis of the
latest evidence is core to science and establishing the truth”
Empiricism
Rationalism
Convergence

P h i l o s o p h i c a l S o u p
Heraclitus (6th C BC)
Parmenides (5th C BC)
Aristotle (4th C BC)
Plato (4th C BC)
Thales (4th C BC)
Thomas Aquinas (13th C)
Bacon (16th C)
Galileo Galilei (17th C)
Descarte (17th C)
Locke (17th C)
Spinoza (17th C)
Kant (18th C)
Leibniz (18th C)
Berkeley (18th C)
Mill (19th C)
Hegel (19th C)
Marx (19th C)
Popper (20th C)
Ayer (20th C)
Carnap (20th C)
Putnam (20th C)
Kuhn (20th C)
Russell (20th C)
Lakatos (20th C)
Feyerabend (20th C)
Hawkins (21st C)
Cartwright (21st C)
Kourany (21st C)
“After 27 Centuries the argument and
debate on all aspects of science continues
- meanwhile knowledge continues to grow
apace - and AI is about to enter the fray”

Stumbling block To
One track fits all
“Scale sees entirely di
ff
erent behaviours across the 1045 span
from Quarks to the frontier of the observable universe
- and common sense turns out to be uncommon”
Common Sense
?? Quantum Mechanics 11/13 Dimensional Space ??

Season Prediction
Agricultural Accounts
Astronomy/Astrology
Navigation
Mathematics
Tools
Materials
Trade
Commerce
Sciences
Civilisation
Printing
Instruments
Education
Industrialisation
Times Arrow
P r o g r e s s &
P e r c e p t i o n
“Our tools and technologies have
accelerated the rate of knowledge
creation and distribution”

F u n d a m e n ta l
A clarity of objectives & methodology
Science: “Rigorous investigation, based on observation, theorising,
modelling, experimentation and testing in order to establish the
mechanisms of reality and form consistent models of our universe
that can be continually tested and corroborated”
Objective: “to established the most accurate truths possible”
Hard: “A never ending evolution of understanding, established
with our latest technologies of observation and experimentation”

F u n d a m e n t a l
A confusion of objectives & methodology
Non-Sciences: “Looking for evidence to support a pre-assumed
reality and/or ‘obvious/desired/beliefs’ sans valid supporting facts
or corroboration”
“Science doesn’t care what you believe”
“AI doesn’t care what you think”

Fundamental
“The ability to understand the
universe is de
fi
ned by our leading
edge technologies, and instruments
of measurement and observation at
any given time.
They de
fi
ne the accuracy and depth
of our understanding and models.
We are locked into a positive
feedback loop - more technology
sees greater knowledge creates
more advanced technology”

Fundamental (1)
If we judge the success of science by the ‘well-
being’ of the human populous, which has seen a
rapid acceleration starting around 1600 that
continued exponentially until recently when self-
limiting has come into play
“We are the only species that fully understands
that ‘we’ now constitute the biggest threat to life
on this planet”

If we judge the failure of ignorance,
superstition, and belief systems, by the ‘well-
being’ of the human populous, we see plagues,
famines, pestilence, wars, collapsing civilisations,
very short lifespans, little/no sustained positive
change. In the ancient world science ‘stuttered
into being’ many times to be overpowered by the
dominance of ignorance, and beliefs.
“As a species we understood virtually nothing that
would see the longevity of population growth” !
Fundamental (2)

Qin Shi Huang
Gaius Caligular
Attila The Hun
Gengis Khan
Tomas de Torquemada
Timur Tamerlane
Vlad The Impaler
Ivan the Terrible
Joseph Lenin
Benito Mussolini
Adolph Hitler
Mao Zedong
Pol Pot
Idi Amin
Nazis ~ 80M Deaths
Exploiters of Science
But occult believers !!
To qualify for this list - must bear a
responsibility for >100k deaths
Fundamental (3)
A m i x i n g o f i g n o r a n c e ,
superstition, beliefs, pseudo-
science and science, appears to
conjure the worst failures in history

Philosophy : is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat
Metaphysics: is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat
that isn’t there
Theology: is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat that
isn’t there and shouting “I’ve found it!”
Science: is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat with a torch
RELATIVITY :-)
Engineering: is like being in a dark room and looking for a black cat with a torch
and deciding there has to be a better way!

Without Technology
Reasons for, and explanations of, our universe (and
everything in it) saw peoples resorting to:
- Superstition
- Belief Systems
- Witchcraft, Alchemy, Magic
All provide dubious/mostly erroneous answers for
cause, e
ff
ect and outcomes - generally without room
for any doubt, discussion or question. This state has
often been/is imposed through threat & terror
spanning hell, torture, and death!
generally winning this battle with
absolute answers that ultimately
lubricate the path to the control of
predominantly ignorant populations

With Technology
Reasons for, and explanations of, our universe
and everything in it through science based on:
- Observation
- Experiments
- Measurement
- Repeatability
- Peer Review
- Constant testing/challenge/debate
Science cannot deliver certainty,
or absolute answers - however, it
can deliver the best ‘models’ of
cause & e
ff
ect based upon our
technologies of observation and
measurement at a given time!

Architecture
The established understandings and truths
of science stand as a ‘conditionally stable
house of cards’. Critical dependencies
govern the stability of the whole, and
any untruths, errors, fails, ultimately
emerge to promote a ‘disjoint’ in
the framework. This promotes a
resurgence of effort leading to
corrections and adjustments of
validity and application.
“This one facility of continual correction
and honing (powered by technology driven
measurement and observation) has made
science the single most e
ff
ective
framework ever created - and has seen far
greater progress of human civilisation than
any other in history”

SUM OF Generations
Science is carefully built a layer at a time
1643 - 1727

Discipline
Science is very hard:
A continual and uncompromising quest for the truth
Entirely evidence based and subject to relentless challenge
Continual testing, skeptical peer review, discussion, debate, re
fi
nement
No one person or group - no idea or concept, model or fact, is sacrosanct
Position, title, reputation, influence, wealth are ‘nothing’ in this endeavour
Everyone and anyone can be challenged, proven wrong, and be overtaken
John Locke
1632 -1704
A Giant !

S C I E N C E
U n i q u e h u m a n e n d e a v o u r

S C I E N C E
U n i q u e h u m a n e n d e a v o u r
WE ARE SEEKING
A DYNAMIC AND
OFT STOCHASTIC
TRuTH
THIS CONTRASts
with all Other
systems based
on static TRUTHS

MODERN VERSION
C l a s s i c 2 0 t h C e n t u r y Pe r s p e c t i ve
R i c h a rd F e y n m a n 1 9 6 4 A h e ro
o f t h e o re t i c a l p h y s i c s a n d t h e
q u a n t u m w o r l d / c o m p u t i n g
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw

Pe e r re v i e w f e e d b a c k
c o l l a b o r a t i o n a n d
c o r ro b o r a t i o n + f i e l d
o p e r a t i o n s e x p e r i e n c e
Today’s version
Re f i n e d 2 1 s t C e n t u r y Pe r s p e c t i ve

T h e d i v i d e b e t we e n s c i e n c e ,
e n g i n e e r i n g a n d t e c h n o l o g y,
h a s b e c o m e b l u r re d b y t h e
n e e d f o r wo r ka b l e s o l u t i o n s
Today’s version

T h e d i v i d e b e t we e n s c i e n c e ,
e n g i n e e r i n g a n d t e c h n o l o g y,
h a s b e c o m e b l u r re d b y t h e
n e e d f o r wo r ka b l e s o l u t i o n s
Today’s version
Engineering =
A p p l i e d
S c i e n c e
Engineering and tech
Enable and empower
Science to often
Correct and steer to
A better truth

Science and
Engineering
Philosophers: Let us think how a chicken might work!
Physicists: Lets dismantle it and take a look see!

Science and
Engineering
Brain scanners and chip implants plus AI and
Quantum Computing may facilitate
fi
rmer
foundations for all the ‘soft sciences’ in the future
The chasm between the hard and soft science is
likely to narrow signi
fi
cantly due to tech advances

Science and
Engineering
fi
rmer
fi
Engineers: Lets build a better one - how hard can it be?

Science and
Engineering
fi
rmer
fi
Engineers: Lets build a better one - how hard can it be?
The challenges faced by engineers are only going to
get more complex and diverse with time

C a n r e s u l t s b e
r e p e a t e d b y o t h e r s
u s i n g s i m i l a r o r
d i f f e re n t t e c h n i q u e s ?
N o t a l wa y s p o s s i b l e
a t t h e l e a d i n g e d g e !
DELAYED / IMPOSSIBLE ?
C o r r o b o r a t i o n m a y b e a t a l l o r d e r f o r n o w. .

ADVICE
1. Before you address a problem think what a reasonable outcome might be
2. Take all prior e
ff
orts into account; do not be shy of challenging the status quo
3. Form a starting hypothesis carefully, but if you can’t, then make an educated guess
4. Remember that a failure is still a result; do not underestimate the power of iteration
5. Be open minded and willing to change your world view on the basis of new evidence
6. Strive to understand what is most likely to be true and not what you wish it to be
7. If you get a positive outcome, check your methodology/results carefully and repeat
8. Throughout; seek the counsel and critical eye of colleagues - be prepared to rethink
9. If your results are consistently repeatable you may just be onto something!
10. If you can repeat your result using di
ff
erent approaches it may be time to publish!

Imperfect
But the best we can do:
Humans are imperfect
Machines are imperfect
AI in a human world prone to err
Robots create repeatable precision
Commercial pressures >> biased results
Political pressures >> purposeful bias/steer
Academic pressures >> quantity over quality
Publish or perish + money see corruption and > 10k fake papers/year
“Technology can now help and guide us in ‘policing’ the scientific framework”

Corrections
Relentless corroboration & testing
Purposeful skepticism
Nothing is sacrosanct
Peer review and debate
Repeatable experiments
Continual result cross-checking
Coherent, logical, supporting, results
Relational frameworks across disciplines
Logical build from hypothesis to theory/results
Improved measurement & experiments with time
Weeding out of aberrations and any stray outcomes
Purposeful recasting of theories in the light of new evidence

Education
Has to change with time

S E G U A E
Common Paradox
The ignorant Right
“Those critical of science,
scientists, and scientific
advice, voice their beliefs
using technologies furnished
by the very science they
wish to discredit and dispel”

SciFi
Media
Movies
Illiteracy
Language
Education
Innumeracy
Social Media
+++
Propaganda
Popularism
Commerce
Celebrities
Fashion
Politics
Fakery
Cults
+++
S o c i e ta l
F a i l u r e
How did we get here ?
US economist, social philosopher

Science under Threat
by A Tide of Ignorance
“Any argument posed
without valid facts and
evidence can likewise be
dismissed out of hand”
- Dictators
- Politicians
- Extremists
- In
fl
uencers
- Social Media
- Organisations
“Routinely telling lies seems
to have become normalised
along with hatred replacing
rational thought and debate ”

Threats to Science
A Tide of Ignorance
- Unquestioning and unthinking
- Blind belief in ancient texts
- Wilful denial of evidence
- Pseudo-scientists
- Poorly educated
“A (Jewish) book written from the 5th C on -
translated into latin, edited and redacted by the
Catholic Church - then translated into English
taken as the guiding text and predictor of the
future ”
Harold Camping Preacher
Predicted the end of the
world from the Bible
to be May 21 2011
Died at age 92
Left $120M

Death of Civilisations
- Ignorance
- Believing lies
- Denying the truth
- Loss of humanity
-

Science paradox
“People gladly embrace and enjoy the
bene
fi
ts of science whilst at the same
time trying to deny and/or challenge
its validity”
Facts should define the truth
Lies can never define the facts

Profound
Stupidity
“The brains that believe and propagate
such ideas are a disgrace to our species”

F a i l u r e
How did we get here ?

Profound
Stupidity
Crazy/Idiotic/Insane: “God created dinosaur
fossils in order to test our faith”
“Christian calculations based
on the Bible estimate the Earth
to be no more than 6000 years old”

D e s c r i b e d a s
a s t a r G a t e
F i g m e n t o f i m a g i n a t i o n

a s t a r G a t e
No founding hypothesis, theory, or
demonstrable experimental evidence,
And nor is there indirect evidence…

a s t a r G a t e
No founding hypothesis, theory, or
demonstrable experimental evidence,
And nor is there indirect evidence…
“Facts define the truth”
“Truth is not defined by dreams, beliefs,
or fiction”

LOTS OF Fakery
F i g m e n t s o f F o r g e r y

LOTS OF Fakery
F i g m e n t s o f F o r g e r y
SPOOF

S C I E N CE
Politicians & public:
Science is very poorly taught in schools and so
people in general do not understand the basics and
are easily taken in by scams like this!

C O N F U S I O N
S t i l l n o t w i d e l y u n d e r s t o o d
D e s p i t e > 4 0 0 y e a r s o f
t e s t i n g a n d v a l i d a t i n g
t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s o f
s c i e n c e , i t a l l r e m a i n s
u n d e r a t t a c k & s u b j e c t
t o c r i t i c i s m a n d d o u b t
b y t h o s e w e d t o b e l i e f
s y s t e m s , m y s t i c i s m , a n d
c o n s p i r a c y t h e o r i e s o n
a n a l a r m i n g s c a l e .
R e c e n t e x a m p l e s o f d i s b e l i e f i n c l u d e
t h e r a d i a t i o n d a n g e r s o f 3 , 4 , 5 G , W i f i ,
t h e C V - 1 9 d o u b t e r s a n d A n t i v a x e r s

U N T H i n k i n g
I G N O R A N C E
D e s p i t e > 4 0 0 y e a r s o f
t e s t i n g a n d v a l i d a t i n g
t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s o f
s c i e n c e , i t a l l r e m a i n s
u n d e r a t t a c k & s u b j e c t
t o c r i t i c i s m a n d d o u b t
b y t h o s e w e d t o b e l i e f
s y s t e m s , m y s t i c i s m , a n d
c o n s p i r a c y t h e o r i e s o n
a n a l a r m i n g s c a l e .
R e c e n t e x a m p l e s o f d i s b e l i e f i n c l u d e
t h e r a d i a t i o n d a n g e r s o f 3 , 4 , 5 G , W i f i ,
t h e C V - 1 9 d o u b t e r s a n d A n t i v a x e r s

Frequent Error
C o r r e l a t i o n a n d C a u s a t i o n !
Correlation identi
fi
es relationships between variables.
Synchrony of variables does not guarantee a causal relationship.

Pseudo
SCIENCE
The easy antithesis:
“The big problem with ‘unthinking belief’
comes when people invest substantial
amounts of time, $$, energy in their
model or system; it can become
impossible to admit that they
are wrong, or have been
duped”
Pseudo
SCIENCE
The easy antithesis:
“The big problem with ‘unthinking belief’
comes when people invest substantial
amounts of time, $$, energy in their
model or system; it can become
impossible to admit that they
are wrong, or have been
duped or swindled”
Lies
Rumour
Whispers
Unthinking
Blind Belief
The In-Crowd
Indoctrination
Unchallenging
Low Discipline
Unquestioning
Poor Education
Follow The Herd
No Fact Checking
Go With The Flow
Conspiracy Theories
Fashionable Ignorance

N o P R O O F
P s e u d o s c i e n c e @ L a r g e
Homeopathic medicines are
diluted far more than this !
Dilution rates are typically
less than 1 part in 10EXP20
According to the believers
the greater the dilution the
more effective the treatment!

N o P R O O F
P s e u d o s c i e n c e @ L a r g e
Homeopathic medicines are
diluted far more than this !
Dilution rates are typically
less than 1 part in 10EXP20
According to the believers
the greater the dilution the
more effective the treatment!
ALL THIS
IS
UNPROVEN
AND
FLIES
IN
THE
FACE
OF
ALL ESTABLISHED
SCIENTIFIC
EXPERIENCE

Irrational Beliefs
Powered by purposeful ignorance
Belief System or Cult
Religion

M E A N I N G L E S S ?
H o c u s - P o c u s c o n c e p t s w r i t l a r g e
1000s of years supposed
abstraction/models/ancient
wisdoms yielded nothing
significant or advancement
for civilisations
W i t h o u t a n y m e a n s o f
measuring, testing, proving
or disproving - they are
assured but worthless!
Everything of this nature
is untestable and remains
without any foundation!

N o n s e n s e
N o t h i n g t r a c t a b l e h e r e
People adhering to all credos
of this kind use words like
energy, frequency, wavelength,
a u r a , d i m e n s i o n , z o n e ,
presence, ectoplasm, plasma
without any ability to define,
measure, or describe them!

SCIENCE
Power of discipline
ANTITHESIS

Thousands of years and tens of civilisations
pursuing the same basic goals:
1. An Elixir of Life & Imm ortality
2. Tr a n s m u t i n g m e t a l s i n t o g o l d
3. The Philosophers Stone of all knowledge
“A total failure for all three, but on their
journey they laid some foundation for basic
chemistry & metallurgy - they observed what
happened but had no real clue as to why - it
was all just magic”
Gen esis 1
R a n d o m A l c h e m y

Thousands of years and tens of
civilisations pursuing similar
goals:
1. Appeasing The Gods
2. Predicting The Future
3. C h a r t i n g T h e S e a s o n s
4. Modelling The Heavens
5. Navigation & Cartography
“Gods’ & Futures were a total
failure, but charting the seasons,
m o d e l l i n g t h e h e a v e n s , n a v i g a t i o n
s a w a l o t o f s u c c e s s i n m a t h e m a t i c s ,
& l o g i c - a ‘ f i r s t s t e p ’ t o w a r d s c i e n c e ”
G e n e s i s 2
A n c i e n t A s t r o n o m y

Dispersed individuals and groups:
- un able to c ommu n i cate & sh a re at almost any distance
- di s c o v e r i e s k e p t s e c re t f o r c o n t r o l a n d p e r s o n a l g a i n
- little or no corroboration of results and no mind melding
“A ve ry limite d s ca l e o f su c c e ss g iven the 1000s of practitioners”
T H E V O I D
Wo r k i n g i n i s o l a t i o n
“ A l l f o r m s o f t r a v e l & c o m m u n i c a t i o n
b e f o r e / d u r i n g t h e m i d d l e a g e s w e r e
e x t r e m e l y l i m i t e d - a n d s o t o o t h e
p r o p a g a t i o n o f i d e a s / d i s c o v e r i e s ”

Virtually no distribution:
- hand written/carved copies only
- fires, wars, the sacking of libraries
- no corroboration/checking of content
- mostly locked away/buried and unavailable
D O C U M E N T s
E x t r e m e l y l i m i t e d l i t e r a c y
Very few ancient texts survive(d)
and what can/could be recovered
are often incomplete, damaged,
and require(d) translation

D I C T A T
T R U T H s
B e l i e f n o t f a c t s
C h a l l e n g i n g t h e t e a c h i n g s o f
t h e c h u r c h o r d i s r u p t i n g t h e
s t a t e i n a n y w a y w a s n o t a
g o o d i d e a
f o r a n y o n e ,
b u t m o r e s o
f o r a l c h e m i s t s
p h i l o s o p h e r s
a n d b u d d i n g
s c i e n t i s t s
“ T h i s w a s a d o m i n a n t m o d e f o r
h u n d r e d s o f y e a r s w i t h c h a r g e s
o f w i t c h c r a f t , b l a s p h e m y , a n d
h e r e s y c o m m o n - c u l m i n a t i n g
i n e x e c u t i o n d e s p i t e r e c a n t i n g ”
“ O p p r e s s i o n d i d n o t
s t o p t h e m a r c h o f t h e
t r u t h , b u t i t d i d s l o w i t
d o w n b y d r i v i n g i t
u n d e r g r o u n d ”
Truly the Dark Ages
of ignorance and fear

D I C T A T
T R U T H s
B e l i e f n o t f a c t s
O n e v e r y c o n t i n e n t a n d i n e v e r y
civilisation repression/control of truth
has been/is a common factor!

R E F o r m at i o n
B r e a k i n g w i t h C a t h o l i c i s m
Religions and despots have always
sought to keep their people under
control through ignorance & fear!
“ Yo u c a n ’ t n a v i g a t e & e x p l o r e t h e p l a n e t w i t h
t h e P o p e a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e u n i v e r s e ”
“ B u i l d i n g e f f i c i e n t w e a p o n s i s i m p o s s i b l e o n
t h e b a c k o f a n y b e l i e f s y s t e m ”
“ P l u n d e r i n g & c o l o n i s i n g c o n t i n e n t s o n a n y s c a l e
w i t h o u t p r o v e n f a c t s & s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e i s n o t
f e a s i b l e ”

R E F o r m at i o n
B r e a k i n g w i t h C a t h o l i c i s m
Religions and despots have always
sought to keep their people under
control through ignorance & fear!
“ Yo u c a n ’ t n a v i g a t e & e x p l o r e t h e p l a n e t w i t h
t h e P o p e a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e u n i v e r s e ”
“ B u i l d i n g e f f i c i e n t w e a p o n s i s i m p o s s i b l e o n
t h e b a c k o f a n y b e l i e f s y s t e m ”
“ P l u n d e r i n g & c o l o n i s i n g c o n t i n e n t s o n a n y s c a l e
w i t h o u t p r o v e n f a c t s & s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e i s n o t
f e a s i b l e ”
ANY CAUSALITY
ASSoCiated WITH
LUTHER IS MORE
LIKELY COINCIDENCE

c h a i n e d
L i b r a r i e s
F i x e d i n f o r m a t i o n
Only available to the select few
Often controlled by librarians
who decided which books you
should be allowed to read

Printing Press
A recording & sharing revolution
Johannus Guttenberg 1440
William Caxton 1450
Invented in China ~1040AD

Printing Press
A recording & sharing revolution
Johannus Guttenberg 1440
William Caxton 1450
Books remained expensive &
hard to sell at first but soon
went from the limited reach
of the church & royalty down
to the rich of society
A transition from Vellum to
Parchment to Paper reduced
costs as did other advances
T h e b i g g e s t i n i t i a l i m p a c t
w a s a p r e c u r s o r t o
newspapers - news sheets:
London had >60
All this saw the rapid spread
o f d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s ,
ideas and new facts
This grew to become a primary
d e f e n c e t o o l / n e m e s i s f o r
secular & religious repression
of the truth across Europe by
c o n n e c t i n g a n d e m p o w e r i n g
scientific communities.
Invented in China ~1040AD

T R A N S L AT I O N
And widespread distribution
For the first time people could read
the word of God to decide for
themselves rather than the dictats
of Rome!

P R I M E M O V E R S
We a p o n s , e x p l o r a t i o n , m a t h s
Accurate navigation, mapping, ballistics,
(Ordnance Survey Maps) knowledge based
design, greater performance and killing
efficiency, saw mathematics push aside
the endless debate of the philosophers
based on established ideas, arguments &
conjectures of the past.
Cause and effect, prediction instead of
g u e s s i n g , f o r m a l i s a t i o n a n d p r o v e n
methods came to the fore aided by the
printing press!

S C I E N t i s t s
A r e c e p t i v e c o m m u n i t y
The spread of ideas, information,
discoveries, inventions, results,
a n d b e n e f i t s s a w t h e r i s e o f
literacy and general education.
An acceleration in collaboration
& progress also followed in all
arenas of science along with a
migration to agreed standards,
m e t h o d o l o g i e s , p r o c e s s e s a n d
principles…

S i r F r a n c i s B a c o n
E x p e r i m e n t a t i o n & c o r r o b o r a t i o n a r e k e y
A w e l l e d u c a t e d a r i s t o c r a t , a n d L o r d
C h a n c e l l o r t o J a m e s I . B a c o n r e t i r e d f o l l o w i n g
a c c u s a t i o n s o f c o r r u p t i o n . H e w a s t h e n a b l e
t o f o c u s o n h i s p r i m e i n t e r e s t ; t h e p h i l o s o p h y
o f s c i e n c e .
( 1 5 6 1 t o 1 6 2 6 )
Bacon’s scienti
fi
c method emphasised the
use of experimentation and interaction as
the core principles based on observation,
induction and experimentation
“The primary belief systems of the time
were religion, superstition, and folklore”

HUMAN
KNOWLEDGE
WHAT HATH BACON WROUGHT?
“A l l t r u t h s a re e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d o n c e d i s c o ve re d ”
W E a r e
n o w h e r e
Galileo Galilei 1564-1642
S o m e s e e A I +
R o b o t s a s o u r e n d
g a m e : B U T I s e e i t
a s o u r f i r s t g e n e s i s w h e r e
w e b e c o m e t h e m a s t e r s o f o u r f u t u r e
Engineering of biology
and new mixed mode
lifeforms

HUMAN
KNOWLEDGE
WHAT HATH BACON WROUGHT?
“A l l t r u t h s a re e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d o n c e d i s c o ve re d ”
W E a r e
n o w h e r e
Galileo Galilei 1564-1642
S o m e s e e A I +
R o b o t s a s o u r e n d
g a m e : B U T I s e e i t
a s o u r f i r s t g e n e s i s w h e r e
w e b e c o m e t h e m a s t e r s o f o u r f u t u r e
Engineering of biology
and new mixed mode
lifeforms
in
com
plete
con
trast
to
all
belief
system
s
our
species
en
joyed
all
this
on
the
back
of
the
SCIEN
TIFIC
M
ethod

N o n - s e q u e n t i a l
T h i s o c c u r r e d s e m i - r a n d o m l y
N e w t o n
1 6 4 2 - 1 7 2 7
F e r m a t
1 6 0 1 - 1 6 6 5
G a l i l e o
1 5 6 4 - 1 6 4 2
L e o n a r d o
1 4 5 2 - 1 5 1 9
A f e w e x p e r i m e n t a l i s t a n d
t h i n k e r s d r i v i n g m a s s i v e
c h a n g e i n < 2 0 0 y r s
discovery of the four most massive moons of Jupiter
Discovered the four most massive moons of Jupiter
Developed Calculus 3 years before Newton
Gravitational model for the solar system

N o n - s e q u e n t i a l
T h i s o c c u r r e d s e m i - r a n d o m l y
M o d e l s s e l d o m s u r v i v e f o r
m i l l e n n i a - t h e o r b i t a l
w o b b l e ( p r e c e s s i o n ) o f
M e r c u r y s a w t h e p a r t i t i o n
o f N e w t o n i a n M e c h a n i c s
discovery of the four most massive moons of Jupiter
Special Relativity: The relationship between space,
time, mass, and energy
General Relativity: How gravity fits into the mix
Albert Einstein in 1905.
M e r c u r y W o b b l e f i r s t
o b s e r v e d i n 1 8 5 9 b y
U r b a i n L e V e r r i e r.

R e f o r m at i o n
A p e r i o d o f d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n
a transformative religious and cultural movement that swept through Europe in the 16th century.
Transformative religious/cultural movement
that swept through Europe in the 16th C.
Martin Luther’s posted his Theses in 1517
giving rise to Protestantism, and a diverse
range of Christian denominations - and a
challenge to the Catholic Church.
“The Bible is the ultimate Christian
religious authority & humans can
only get to heaven through faith in
God, not by doing good deeds.

Scientists are under no particular obligation to either celebrate or bemoan
the publication of Luther’s theses 500 years ago. There have been great
Protestant and Catholic scientists, and others who had di
ff
erent faiths or
(including Galileo?) no religious belief at all. What happened in the scienti
fi
c
revolution was that science developed its own procedures and modes of
enquiry and thus established its independence from both philosophers and
theologians.…
The link between the Reformation and the scienti
fi
c revolution is not one of
causation. But it is more than a coincidence, as both were made possible by
the rapid growth of printing after 1439, when Johannes Gutenberg
developed his press. Where previous reform movements, in both science
and religion, had failed dismally, the press made it possible for these two to
succeed. If we are looking for the preconditions of modern science, it’s to
Gutenberg, not Luther, that we should turn.
P r e & P o s t
R e f o r m at i o n
A migration from Science & Polymaths
to schools of science & specialisation

G r e at e r F o c u s
S U B J EC T S L I C I N G
S c i e n c e a s a s i n g u l a r t o p i c
o p e n e d i n t o s u b - d i v i s i o n s
a l l o w i n g f o r a g r e a t e r
c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s
T h i s w a s a l s o n e c e s s a r y t o
p o w e r t h e m o v e t o w a r d t h e
f i r s t i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n a n d
g r e a t e r e x p l o r a t i o n a n d t h e
o p e n i n g o f t r a d e r o u t e s
I t a c c e l e r a t e d t h e s c i e n c e s a n d
c r e a t e d c o h o r t s o f s p e c i a l i s e d
i n d i v i d u a l s a n d t e a m s … a l o n g
w i t h i s o l a t i n g ‘ e x p e r t i s e s i l o s ’
w i t h l i t t l e k n o w l e d g e o f o t h e r s
… i n t u r n t h i s h a s n o w c r e a t e d
a n e e d f o r ‘ g e n e r a l i s t s ’ t o
b r i d g e t h e g a p s a n d t o s e e a n d
u n d e r s t a n d t h e w h o l e !

B U T t h e r e i s
O N LY s c i e n c e
T h e s e s u b - d i v i s i o n s g i v e u s
a d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e t h r o
a d i v e r s e r a n g e o f m o d e l s
a n d i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n
C h e m i s t r y, B i o l o g y a n d P h y s i c s
d e f i n e l i f e i t s e l f f r o m d i f f e r e n t
p e r s p e c t i v e s
A s t r o n o m y , G e o l o g y , P h y s i c s ,
B i o l o g y a n d P h y s i c s d e f i n e t h e
c o s m o s f r o m d i f f e r e n t v a n t a g e
p o i n t s
G e t t i n g t h e d i f f e r e n t m o d e l s t o
a g r e e h a s b e e n / i s a p o w e r f u l
c o r r o b o r a t i o n t o o l

F o u r f o r c e s
a l l r e l at e d ?
A f i f t h f o r c e m a y b e c o m e a
n e c e s s i t y t o e s t a b l i s h a
f u l l y r e l a t i o n a l m o d e l !
E l e c t r o M a g n e t i c
S t r o n g N u c l e a r
W e a k N u c l e a r
G r a v i t y
Behaviours related/modelled
by quantum mechanics
So far no relationship/linking
model found
}
}

M i g r at i o n o f
Ato m i c M o d e l
O u r v i e w o f a t o m i c p h y s i c s h a s
m i g r a t e d b y m a t h e m a t i c a l
m o d e l s t h a t f i t t h e e s t a b l i s h e d
f a c t s d e r i v e d f r o m o b s e r v a t i o n s
u s i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t h a v e
a d v a n c e d w i t h t i m e

M i g r at i o n o f
Ato m i c M o d e l
T h e l i m i t s o f t h e h u m a n m i n d
m a y d e m a n d a s o l u t i o n o f A I
a n d / o r Q u a n t u m C o m p u t i n g

ScienTIFIC
Research
“Idealistic - it is almost never this easy!
Experiments fail, discoveries/surprises
are encountered, the picture changes,
and of course confusion ensues, false
trails are examined, box canyons have
to be abandoned et al. But if you are
lucky you will suable into
virgin territory and strike gold ”
Be Aware: There are many variants of
this basic
fl
ow chart!

WIDER PICTURE
N o t h i n g o p e ra t e s i n i s o l a t i o n
I n d u s t r y i n c r e a s i n g l y f u e l s s c i e n c e
a n d e n g i n e e r i n g i n c r e a t i n g
t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t g e n e r a t e m o re d a t a
a n d i n f o r m a t i o n s t re a m s
F a s t g r o w i n g k n o w l e d g e / w i s d o m p ro m o t e s ,
i n d u s t r i a l g ro w t h a c c e l e r a t e d b y H u m a n - A I
c o l l a b o r a t i o n , c re a t i v i t y & p ro b l e m s o l v i n g
A c c i d e n t a l
D i s c o v e r y
Tr i a l
&
E r r o r
S c i e n c e
&
S h a r i n g
A n a l o g u e
M o d e l l i n g
D i g i t a l
M o d e l l i n g
C A D , A I
Ro b o t i c s
3 D FA B
N a n o
B i o
S c i e n c e , e n g i n e e r i n g & t e c h n o l o g y
a r e f u l l y i n t e r d e p e n d e n t a s t h e y
c o n t i n u a l l y f e e d & f u e l e a c h o t h e r

RELAY
VACUUM
TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED
CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing

RELAY
VACUUM
TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED
CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
3D ICs
Molecular
Quantum
Genetic
Biological
Optical
Computing
AI Robotics
New
Sensors
Networks
Software
Lifeforms
Intelligences
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing

RELAY
VACUUM
TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED
CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
3D ICs
Molecular
Quantum
Genetic
Biological
Optical
Computing
AI Robotics
New
Sensors
Networks
Software
Lifeforms
Intelligences
Moore’s
Wall??
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing

RELAY
VACUUM
TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED
CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
3D ICs
Molecular
Quantum
Genetic
Biological
Optical
Computing
AI Robotics
New
Sensors
Networks
Software
Lifeforms
Intelligences
Moore’s
Wall??
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing
EXPONENTIAL growth
ON this scale has
never been witnessed
before

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
T e c h b e g e t s m o r e t e c h
b e g e t s s c i e n c e / k n o w l e d g e
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvUiq_jTLM

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
NOTHING can be
EXPONENTIAL
FOREVER

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
NOTHING can be
EXPONENTIAL
FOREVER
this is a portent
of significant
change to come

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
NOTHING can be
EXPONENTIAL
FOREVER
this is a portent
of significant
change to come
COLLAPSE
MODE CHANGE
RADICAL change

Digital
Computing
Networking
Sensors
Analogue
Computing
Sensors
Linear
Non-Linear Non-Linear
Future
Arti
fi
cial
Life?
Biotech
Robotics
AI
Nanotech
Quantum
Computing
Quantum
Nano
Quantum
Bio
Future
Cyborgs ?
N O E N D i n s i g h t
D r i v e n b y s c i e n c e & e n g i n e e r i n g
The scientific method becomes
ever more powerful embracing
new components and domains
Region of New
Mixed Mode Tech

S E G U A E O U T
Example application & study

WORKED EXAMPLE
Are we alone/unique in the cosmos ?
Scientific method applied to
the biggest questions of all!
“ We start by reversing the question as a workable hypothesis
open to numerous forms of investigation”
Hypothesis: There are thousands of inhabited worlds!
Observation 1: All celestial bodies & life forms are of the
same stardust, chemistry, and molecules
Observation 2: Not all life forms require light & oxygen; but
carbon, may be an essential
Proof: This is a complex and challenging problem
requiring more than one method and team

D r a k e s E q u at i o n
What are the probabilities & likelihoods ?
The application of logic,
maths, data, & bounded
best estimates
Analysis 1: Applying Drakes equation to estimate the probability
of life occurring & number of life supporting worlds
N = R*fpneflfifcL
Frank Donald Drake 28/5/1930
A US astronomer/astrophysicist
involved in the search for ETI &
a founder of SETI

Produced by many round
t a b l e s e s s i o n s / d i v e r s e
teams and best estimates
Analysis 1: Drakes estimate of the number of intelligent species
occurring within a distance R of planet earth
Proof: This is very revealing and encouraging, but it does not constitute proof, it is
merely interesting, and a guide to the potential that may be out there!
D r a k e s E q u at i o n
What are the probabilities & likelihoods ?

Scanning the sky
Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence
S e a r c h i n g f o r i n t e l l i g i b l e
r a d i o s i g n a l s f r o m d i s t a n t
solar systems
The latest technical advance is the Allen [Paul Allen Founder of
Microsoft] Array - the
fi
rst radio telescope designed exclusively for
SETI searches - scans 1 - 15GHz from Hat Creek-Cascades 450km
North of San Francisco. A large number of relatively small dishes
extending over 1 km to provide a high-quality beam shape to minimise
unwanted terrestrial noise/interference/terrestrial signals/spoof events.
The search software [SonATA -SETI] is implemented with enterprise
servers donated by Dell and Intel.
The SETI Institute is a not-for-pro
fi
t research organisation (incorporated 1984) for the discovery/sharing knowledge as
scienti
fi
c ambassadors to the public, the press, and the government in the "search for extraterrestrial intelligence".
Over a 36 year period there have been many false alarms but no conclusive results so far. Drakes equation indicates
that civilisations are very rare events scattered over space and time - and the heavens are vast, signals are weak - hence
automation is vital! 2020 represents a new era in this search effort with many new technologies and techniques…
Proof: If and when intelligible signals are detected it will be ‘interesting'-but not proof
until corroborated by many others and a communication channel is established!

Spectral Scanning
Search for chemical signs of life/intelligence
A planet’s atmosphere flags
the activities on the surface
/biological/life possibilities
Proof ?: If and when promising spectra are detected it can tell us if life might be present
and sustained, and if it is highly intelligent we might detect pollutants - BUT this is not
proof ! It is but a +ve indicator identified by SETI and reason for fly-by/visitation.

Sending invitations
Active SETI - multimode connection attempts
Who, what, where requires
s o m e R S V P m e s s a g e o r
physical visitation !
Active SETI Russia et al send radio signals/
messages to intelligent extraterrestrial life
Passive SETI ALL broadcast radio/TV +
satellite signals eta + random space junk
NASAVoyager 1 1977 Pioneer plaque
represents a physical invitation to connect

Sending invitations
Active SETI - multimode connection attempts
Who, what, where requires
s o m e R S V P m e s s a g e o r
physical visitation !
Active SETI Russia et al send radio signals/
messages to intelligent extraterrestrial life
Passive SETI ALL broadcast radio/TV +
satellite signals eta + random space junk
NASAVoyager 1 1977 Pioneer plaque
represents a physical invitation to connect
Proof: A visitation would be the ultimate!

VIS IT ING P LANETS
Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites
Everything we can reach today
a p p e a r s b a r r e n , b u t w a s i t
always that way?
A trace of organics would imply that
life was/had been present somewhere
in/outside our solar system/Milky Way
A trace of organics would imply that
life was/had been present on Mars/The
Moon at some time

Re cen t ROCK
Re alisationS
R a n d o m s a m p l e s f r o m a s t e r o i d s ,
meteorites and other celestial sources
contain the necessary Amino Acids to
build RNA & DNA. However, radiation
e x p o s u r e m a y h a v e e r a d i c a t e d a l l
signs of living structures, and there is
also the extremely small sample size
Mars surface drilling

Conditional
Our ignorance a l imitation
We don’t know what we don’t know - and
the life chemistry of our planet may not
be the only possibility
“We may not be able to
d e t e c t o r r e c o g n i s e
r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t l i f e
f o r m s - b a s i c o r f a r
m o re a d va n c e d t h a n u s”
“We may consider ourselves to
be civilised and advanced, but
we could, in many respects,
s t i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d t o b e
brutal savages in the eyes of
a f a r m o re a d va n c e d E T ra c e”

Conditional
Our ignorance a l imitation
We don’t know what we don’t know - and
the life chemistry of our planet may not
be the only possibility
“We may not be able to
d e t e c t o r r e c o g n i s e
r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t l i f e
f o r m s - b a s i c o r f a r
m o re a d va n c e d t h a n u s”
“We may consider ourselves to
be civilised and advanced, but
we could, in many respects,
s t i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d t o b e
brutal savages in the eyes of
a f a r m o re a d va n c e d E T ra c e”
They may not
choose to say
hello or visit

WARNING
B e l i e f / W a n t i n g
B e l i e v e r s i n a n y t h i n g, a n d / o r a n y o n e w a n t i n g
something to be true are immediately disqualified
as bonafide unbiased investigators -
and what they do is not science !

Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does
Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does
Observation
Hypothesis
Theory
Experiment
R E C A P
M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r

Observation
Hypothesis
Theory
Experiment
R E C A P
Disagree

Observation
Hypothesis
Theory
Experiment
Teams all over the planet try to repeat the results
with some dedicated to disproving the theory on a
continual basis - eg Relativity Theory !
R E C A P
Agree
Publish
Corroboration

Observation
Hypothesis
Theory
Experiment
Teams all over the planet try to repeat the results
with some dedicated to disproving the theory on a
continual basis - eg Relativity Theory !
This methodology has
been tried and tested over
>400 years and is responsible
for the greatest advances our
species has ever enjoyed,
but it can never deliver
100% certainty!
R E C A P
Agree
Publish
Corroboration

T H R E A T
F a s h i o n a b l e I g n o r a n c e
“Did you know that gravity is only
a theory”
“Scientists don’t know everything”
“Immunisation doesn’t work - it is
unnatural and dangerous”
“ Mary on FaceBook told me that
the moon landings were fake”
++++

R e a l i t y
C o m p l e x i t y D e f e a t s U s …
A primary reason why we need AI
and quantum computing that will
help us decode the unknown

“Not only is the Universe stranger
than we think, it is stranger than
we can think.”
Werner Heisenberg (1901-1976)

D I M E N S I O N A L I T Y
D E M O n s t r a t i o n
C o m p l e x i t y D e f e a t s U s … f r o m 1 t o 2 !

R E M E M B E R
S ke p t i c i s m i s y o u r f r i e n d
“ Yo u a r e t h e e a s i e s t p e r s o n t o f o o l ;
b u t j u s t t r y f o o l i n g o t h e r s
- t h a t i s m u c h h a r d e r ”
“A l w a y s k e e p a n o p e n
m i n d , t h e f u n d a m e n t a l
t r u t h s a r e h a r d w o n ”
P e t e r C o c h r a n e
B T L a b s 1 9 8 5

T h a n k Y o u
www.petercochrane.com
“If we manage to see a little further, and
understand more clearly, it is by
standing on the shoulders of giants”
With a salute to Sir Isaac Newton

The Philosophy of Science

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