The IoT For Real

The IoT For Real
Beyond simplistic thinking and models
Prof Peter Cochrane OBE
petercochrane.com
Date: 24 April 2019
Time: 13.30
Location: Clifton Campus

O P E N Q U E S T I O N S
T h i n k i n g b e f o r e d e s i g n i n g
Why?
H o w ?
When?
Were? 5G?
S e c u r i t y ?
A p p s ?
Network? WTF?

I n n o v a t i o n a n d B O X E S
5G
NetsSecurity
I n o r o u t o f t h e b o x , o r b u i l d a n e w b o x
Apps
Spec

K E Y R E A L I S A T I O N S t o c o m e
• Mos t (Io ) Thi ngs will never connect to the internet?
• S e c u r i t y n e e d s a b i g re t h i n k / re v o l u t i o n !
• We need new wireless technologies!
• There wi ll be eme rgent behaviours!
• We have no suitable planning tools
• 5G will become a marginal player!
• To d a y ’s m o d e l s a re i n a d e q u a t e
T h e I o T i s a v i t a l c o m p o n e n t o f s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u re s

Why are we building an IoT ?
Where does it fit in our schema ?
H o w i s i t g o i n g t o b e d e s i g n e d & b u i l t ?
W I D E R P E R S P E C T I V E
T h e w h y, w h e re a n d h o w o f t h e I o T
Can we all make a positive contribution ?

T h e I o T i s a v i t a l c o m p o n e n t
S u s t a i n a b i l i t y
Sustaining all life with a
human population >8Bn
demands new tech and
processes provided by
I n d u s t r y 4 . 0 / 5 . 0 & t h e
I o T i s a k e y e l e m e n t
o f b o t h r e v o l u t i o n s

O U R C L O S E D S Y S T E M
We a re s t re t c h i n g o u r o n l y l i f e s u p p o r t
s y s t e m b e yo n d i t s n a t u ra l c a p a b i l i t y…
…by a f actor >1.5 growing yea r - on -
ye a r ; a n d t h e h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n c a n
o n l y b e s u s t a i n e d b y n e w m a t e r i a l s ,
t e c h n o l o g i e s , c o n s e r va t i o n m e t h o d s
a n d p ro c e s s e s b e yo n d M o t h e r N a t u re
Available
Resource
Consumption

P R O B L E M S C A L E
2 4 x 3 6 5 p r o d u c t i o n t o o r d e r
The problems confronting us demand
more than changing all the lightbulbs
What is before us is not trivial, it is
wide-ranging, complex, and universal
No one, and no thing, can escape the
consequences of our future actions

C l i m a t e c h a n g e
A l m o s t c e r t a i n l y d o w n t o u s
Global warming is a real and growing threat…and the human
cost will include mass migrations and loss of life on a huge scale…
This has to be addressed from the stance of causality out into the
extremes of the solution space…
Emotional, panic and knee jerk reactions and measure will most
likely make the situation even worse…
SADLY - our politicians and decision makers never studied
Thermodynamics

G R E A T E R E F F I C I E N C Y
Po l i s h i n g w h a t
w e a l r e a d y
have only puts
o f f t h e d a y o f
j u d g e m e n t ; i t
c a n b u t b u y u s
s o m e e x t r a
t i m e … b u t i t i s
not enough!

T o T H E R E S C U E ?
D o w e h a v e a l l t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s

G r e e n E n e r g y
G e n e r a t i o n i s n o t t h e
p r o b l e m , b u t s t o r a g e i s !
O u r b a t t e r y t e c h n o l o g y
i s e x p e n s i v e , i n e f f i c i e n t
a n d < 2 0 % o f t h e e n e r g y
d e n s i t y o f o i l …

F a r m i n g & F O O D
2 4 x 3 6 5 p r o d u c t i o n t o o r d e r

N e w M a t e r i a l
S t r o n g e r, l i g h t e r, t o u g h e r

S e l f - r e p a i r n o w a r e a l i t y

F r i c t i o n r e d u c i n g c o a t i n g s

Sha pe programm ing for real
C h a n g i n g m o d e s o f d e s i g n
and manufacture/supply

D e x t e r i t y D E M A N D S R o b o t i c s
Basic assembly line precision production at speed

SOUND WITH NO MOVING PARTS
A pending revolution in surround sound & cancellation ?

Trachea
Vertebral Disc
Injection Molded
Breathing Lung
Printed/progra mme d
Injection Molded
Stem Cells
as tools of
construction

R E C Y C L I N G
G r o s s l y i n e f f i c i e n t

T h e r e i s n o w a s t e
I t i s a l l d i s c a rd e d re s o u rc e s t h a t c a n
be recovered…the challenge is to do
it at a ve ry high efficiency and very
low energy cost

COMPLEXITY DEMANDS AI
A n i n t e l l e c t a m p l i f i e r f o r h u m a n k i n d

A future based on new
m a t e r i a l s , s c i e n c e s ,
technologies, engineering,
p r o c e s s e s , a u t o m a t i o n ,
robotics, intelligences and
thinking… centred on Nano
and Bio Tech, AI and Robotics BIO-TECH nano-TECH
Lower energy
Lower waste
Less friction
New materials
New industries
New processes
New capabilities
Multi-Disciplinary
hot spot for the 21C
AIRobotics
I n d u s t r y 4 .0 k e r n e l
A n e w m a n - m a c h i n e p a r t n e r s h i p

E v e r y t h i n g p r o d u c e d
t r a c k e d f ro m : m a t e r i a l
source - refinement - supply
- processing - testing - QA -
assembly - application - use
- distribution - sale - service
- ownership - maintenance -
repair - end of life - disposal
Reuse, Repurpose, Materials
Recovery, Recycling at a low
energy cost with a low loss
of base material…
BIO-TECH nano-TECH
AIRobotics
I o T O r c h e s t r a t e d
I n v i s i b l e r e s o u r c e m a n a g e m e n t
IoT

Still very much
prototype tech
and a work in
progress…
not at all clear
that the many
challenges can
be overcome !
Q u a n t u m C o m p u t i n g I 5 .0 ?
V i t a l f o r a n y d e e p u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f c h e m i s t r y,
biology, life, intelligence, complex systems..

U S E R D E S I G N L O O P
I o T f e e d b a c k o n u s e r u s a g e
Historical application data gathered across a wide user population will
become a component in the design process along with failure, repair and
maintenance data…followed by 3R at the end of life…

U S E R D E S I G N L O O P
E v e r y c o m p o n e n t c o n n e c t e d a n d
m o n i t o r e d / p r e d i s p o s e d t o 3 R
D r i v e r / P a s s e n g e r / V e h i c l e h a b i t s
a n d u s e m o n i t o r e d a n d f e d b a c k

P r o d u c t i o n L i n e
Components tagged source to grave

I o T C o n n e c t e d
B u t n o t v i a t h e i n t e r n e t
Connectivity is life
critical - reliability
paramount - info
security & integrity
a must, low latency
essential…but all
i m p o s s i b l e v i a
3/4/5G/WiFi and the
internet!

A L L C o n n e c t e d
~10 year battery life requirement precludes 3/4/5G + satellite connection
~30% of containers below deck with ~55% above deck inside a Faraday Cage
Containers can talk to each other and Daisy Chain to the Bridge and SatComs

3, 4, 5G nets cannot support the demands
of future traffic and logistic networks…
…but vehicle to vehicle systems can
by providing the most efficient
and relevant linking of users
reporting their status
and sharing local &
pertinent info
v e h i c l e t o v e h i c l e
T i m e l y a n d a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n

AL L Ta g g e d
R i p e f o r l o g g i n g

A L L C o n n e c t e d

F o o d w a r e h o u s E
Automated order fulfilment sans 5G

I O T N e t w o r k
Model predictions/animation
Mesh Nets Rule ?
Followed by Clouds ?
Followed by Storage ?

aN IoT/CoTS Future + Unknowns
• material sourcing
• manufacturing history
• distribution and supply chain
• purchase and ownership details
• application, usage, maintenance, repair
• repurposing, reuse, recycling sequence
• +++
This vision does not scale by
energy demands, functionally,
or economically, but networks
without infrastructure do!
Everything tagged, tracked, and on-line (???)

what we know for sure ?
In the arena of rapidly changing mobile tech
WiFi dominates data traffic carried ~ 50%
Wired comes a close second ~ 45%
3/4G are bit players < 5%
Very few new mobile tower sites available
Mobile networks are congested
Data traffic off load is vital
Network infill demands customer micro-cells
Copper DSL bandwidth is a limiter
FTTH programmes are scarce
FTTH installs are rare
~10Bn mobile devices
o n t h e i n t e r n e t
consume ~15% of all
electrical energy
50Bn-1000Bn 5G
IoT devices and a far
b i g g e r i n t e r n e t
cannot be supported
The Future is even
more dominated by
S Y M M E T R I C
SERVICES

2G << 2.5G << 3G <<4G<<5G
Incrementalism or A big leap ?
High on Promise
Low on Delivery
High on Promise
Low on Delivery
The Great
White
Hope
More of the same but slightly better or new thinking
A few tech tweaks
no big changes
Voice + Data
Add Ons
Major new design
voice and data
Integrated
Operation
Data dominated
design IP Based
New Spectrum
Squeezing
more into
the same
Spectrum slicing and
dicing to support 4G
This cannot be fudged
it needs radical thinking
and solutions

Does everything well ?????
T H E B I G F I X ?
5g
• Replaces optical fibre
• Outguns 3 & 4G
• Gbit/s everywhere
• Will dominate the IoT
• Cooks a chicken
• Improves your sex life….

A radical view ??
We have no digital radios - only analogue bent to our digital will!
Thinking and doing nothing new will deliver no real value
If the mobile industry is to prosper - there is no option!

copper modems for
wireless systems
We took what we new and understood
from a world of narrow band copper &
adapted it to the limitations of wireless

bands & channels ARE
an Analogue legacy
The antithesis of digital thinking and
needs born out of the age of the valve,
Morse Code, Telex, and Broadcast

a ‘fork lift’ history / legacy
Big masts/transmitters/receivers, high power, no mobile
Broadcast dominated, one way communication, long distances,
interference, government controls, regulation, licensing +++

‘fork lift’ today !
Old band, channel, modulation thinking
Operating frequencies are much higher,
but the same old modes persist with
interference, government controls,
regulation, licensing +++

ks
Bns
Sensors
RFID
Number Tx
of devices
MW
mW
Distance
& Power
Mobiles
3/4/5G
Tns
Ms
WiFi/Max100ks
100% The need for regulation and control ~ 0%
IoTPROGRESSION

A Mind Experiment
Suppose we had no…
..wireless systems, but we
invent them in an hour??
Would we go: LW, MW, SW,
V H F , U H F , M i c r o w a v e ,
Satellite…?
Would we go: CW, AM, FM,
SSB, VSB…FSK, PSK, QPRSK…?
NO !

what might we do
If we assumed a clean sheet
If we went truly digital
If we abandoned bands
If we abandoned channels
If we adapted digital thinking
No licences
No controls
No regulation
No government
Might it lead to a world of

Actually it is mostly unused!
City of Chicago study <17%
of commercial spectrum used
there is no spectrum fAmine !

Reality over perception
All human created wireless energy is
currently concentrated here
But there is >1000x
more unused space here
IR + >>Reuse

spectrum futures
Short range cell and point to point give higher
reuse ratios and BW advantage of >> 1,000,000
Infrared and Microwave enjoy very
similar propagation performance over
short distances
BW and Frequency are the determinants

Water
Oxygen
Water Water
Oxygen
spectrum PAST AND future
The Old
Analogue Root
Long Distances
Low Bandwidth
Complex Coding
Bands & Channels
Global Constraints
Country Regulated
Spectrum Planning
Licensed Control
Policed Operation
Digital Root
Short Distances
High Bandwidth
Simple Coding
No Bands
No Channels
Licence Codes
No Spectrum Plan
The New

band / channel wastage
The signal space is mostly unoccupied << 10%
960
Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3
MHz
W/m2µ
950940
0.01
0.001
0.1
100
10
1
960

s p e c t r u m f u t u r e s
dBm
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-30
-50
-70
-90
-110
Bands and channels kill spread n
We can tr y to
continue on
this path
Or we can adopt ‘massive spreads and
operate below the thermal noise level

S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds Information transmitted over a channel expressed as a volumetric
function of S/N, BW and Time - aka Claude Shannon 1945/46
I = B.T log2(1 + k.S/N)
I ~ B.T.K.S/NdB
vv
Back to basics!
S p re a d S p e c t r u m
allows us to fill this
volume !
The theoretical limit
for a channel can
also be applied to a
band !
Theoretically possible ? By the application of
a little engineering
licence !!

S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
For real time communication we can in
general only trade BW and S/N, but for
non-real time we can also include T as a
third variable….
An often forgotten trade off!
Information transmitted in different modes of S/N, BW and T

actuality - city location
Sub-optimal (grossly inefficient) signal space occupancy
BandWidth
S/N
t
Signal space visibly available in
every dimension of channel
and band - to be used/
exploited by Spread Spectrum
across as wide a frequency
range as possible…

E VE N M o r e R a d i c a l
Why apply banding when there is no need?
Water
Oxygen
Water Water
Oxygen
60GHz Band = 7 GHz
57 - 64 = 7GHz
50 - 300 = 250GHz
50 - 300 GHz could be
used with occupancy
dynamically determined
by app and distance - and
coding shaped spectrum
to occupy the signal
space to maximal use and
efficiency…

G r e a t e r t o l e r a n c e t o p h a s e n o i s e
Simpler synch/training sequences
Greater interference immunity
Simpler modulation/coding
Better spread efficiency
Greater adaptability
Less overall power
Faster acquisition
Higher bit rates
Higher utility
Better S/NLower energy demands = smaller batteries / longer up times
Advantage sans bands, channels and controls
m a s s i v e s p r e a d s

BW ~ 500MHz
All digital no analogue elements - mixers, amplifies, filters
From UWB
To HWB Hyper Wide Band
BW ~ 50GHz
SIGNAL Hidden in the thermal noise and coded recovery necessary
1bit/Hz
0.01bit/Hz
m a s s i v e s p r e a d s

c h a l l e n g e s t o c o m e !
Blue Tooth
Short Range
Device to Device
Device to Cloud
WiFi/WiMax
Medium Range
WLAN/Cloud
3, 4, 5, 6 G
Long Range
Device to Net
Device to Cloud
SatCom
Broadcast
Conﬂicted technologies,
integrated and intelligent
security systems embedded
into all products and all components
Mixed narrow/wideband, short/long reach, modulation

antenna futures
Fractal designs have been the great white
hope for unified antennas spanning BlueTooth,
WiFi, 3G, 4G - but they have not lived up to
their early promise - as yet !
Mobile device real estate war

… and the Dark Side think it will be Christmas every day!
T H E S E C U R I T Y T H R E AT
IoT massively magnifies the attack surface

I o t N I G H T M a r e
Food & toasters to vehicles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZVYTJarPFs

A Multiplicity of channels
Attack detection/exposure/thwarting using access diversity
BlueTooth
Short Range
Device to Cloud
Device to Device
WiFi, WiMax
Medium Range
WLAN/Cloud
Integrated and intelligent
security systems embedded
into all products and components
ZigBe/Other ??
Car-to-Car Direct
Communications
Defence opportunities in channel/device/system diversity
A wide plurality of channel detection and protection
Attacks almost never isolated or single sourced
Not restricted to single channel/attempt
Secure attack and infection isolation
Diverse immunity/support access
Distributed info sharing
GEO info location
3, 4, 5 G
Long Range
Device to Net
Device to Cloud
SatCom
Broadcast

Broadcasting
Malware
Responding
with updated
protection Wider
Network
Updated
Latest
Solution
Update
Dynamic isolation of infected
devices and components
leading to repair
A u t o - i m m u n i t y
A m i x o f c l e a n a n d i n f e c t e d

Mirrors biological forebears
Applied everywhere 24 x 7
ICs
ISPs
WiFi
Hubs
LANs
Cards
Traffic
Servers
Circuits
Devices
Internet
Networks
Organisations
Companies
Platforms
Groups
People
Mobile
Fixed

F i g h t i n g f i r e w i t h f i r e

what is our actual mission here ?
“The maximal exploitation of the EM Spectrum to the advantage of
Man and Machine for the purposes of communication, sensing,
manipulation, and processing in the realisation of sustainable systems
and societies”
It is vital that we get this right…

The IoT For Real

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