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Future Telecoms Challenges & Opportunities
Professor Peter Cochrane discusses the challenges and opportunities in future telecommunications, emphasizing the evolution towards 6G and the industry's struggle with outdated models and infrastructure. He highlights the need for radical thinking and adaptation to meet growing customer demands, suggesting that bandwidth could become nearly infinite, fundamentally reshaping service delivery and cost structures. The document also addresses the implications of the Internet of Things (IoT) and the critical need for new security measures, proposing that future systems must be innovative and adaptable to emerging technologies and threats.
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Future Telecoms Challenges & Opportunities
- 1. Future Telecommunications Challenges & opportunities ProfessorPeter Cochrane OBE, DSc
- 2. Future Telecommunications Challenges & opportunities ProfessorPeter Cochrane OBE, DSc Future Communications >6G NetworldEurope, Lisbon, 07/11/23
- 3. ChallengeS An industry rivenby old thinking & business models Massive infrastructure and huge investments Slow to change always on the back foot OTT operators are now prime service providers of customer needs Energy, real estate, and manpower top heavy
- 4. KEY PROBLEMS (1) Telcoscan’t quite believe growth in customer demand is ‘endless’
- 5. KEY PROBLEMS (2)Asking really dumb questions, and poor business thinking Why would a customer want: 64 kbit/s 256 kbit/s 2 Mbit/s 10 Mbit/s 100 Mbit/s 1 Gbit/s 10 Gbit/s ???? And what would they do with it? There is no proven business case? Missed opportunities: Skype, Zoom, Teams, Clouds, Streaming, ISP, Apps Cyber Security, Tower-Free Mobility ++
- 6. KEY PROBLEMS (5) Areliance on suppliers Death of R&D, deep understanding, and the rise of retail thinking Outsourced services Follow the herd Short termism Contractors “Everyone loves a dumb customer” “Box shifting’ thinking/culture”
- 7. Specifics Radical thinking (?)based on projections, engineering, economics, sustainability, and what is now possible “Bandwidth is now in fi nite & free (wireless + fi bre) - we can a ff ord to use/waste it to reduce signal processing complexity, save on equipment, and energy” “When Bandwidth is free - Distance is irrelevant - and Time is not chargeable - fl at fee service provision greatly reduces billing costs and allows customers to buy, set up, and control services directly”
- 8. local Loop Decadesof wasted investments, opportunities, powered by a determination not to go FTTH/P $Bns wasted upgrading copper networks fundamentally unable to provide the required service PONs conceived when fi bre >$20/m, today is <$0.05/m - now far cheaper to install FTTH with a dedicated end -to-end fi bre link Shared fi bre (PONs) are bit rate limited, asymmetric, and unable to satisfy future demands
- 9. local Loop Active splittersand distribution points consume signi fi cant amounts of energy, reduce reliability, limit bandwidth & introduce service asymmetry Optical fi bre cables occupy less duct space and easily replace old copper cables to deliver future proof networking
- 10. T o be c l e a r Lean, low energy, high reliability, future proof S i m p l e , v e r y l o w c o s t , h i g h r e l i a b i l i t y , v e r y l o w e n e r g y , f u t u r e p r o o f , a n d f a r f e w e r b u i l d i n g s D e d i c a t e d f i b r e ( s ) / c u s t o m e r / b u i l d i n g W i r e l e s s d o n g l e o n f i b r e m o d e m f o r 4 & 5 G + W i F i
- 11. •>1Gbit/s bi-directional •100% ducted- no overhead •WiFi + 3G dongle per terminal •Future proof and low energy •Reduced OPEX, CAPEX, Faults •Profitability improved <12 months •Company turnover doubled in < 5 years •New services - 50% of income from overseas •Island experienced an in fl ux of new business •Dedicated Fibre per customer J T F T T H 2012
- 12. W i re l e ss r e ac h Topology, buildings, trees, re fl ection limiters As we move up the spectrum these coverage limiting factors (+) become more severe necessitating far more towers and hotspots! We can contemplate evermore serious problems at 26GHz (+) with 6G An even bigger & overriding problem is looming due to the energy demands of the signal processing at each node JT has the option to deploy 4,5,6G dongles in every home and o ffi ce to achieve 100% coverage “Perhaps an untapped option is raw wireless over fi bre”
- 13. Direct Path Re fl ected Steered Ampli fi ed Controlled Penetration Ampli fi cation Contained WLAN Signal Wall= Large Active/Passive Array S M A R T Ac t i v e S u r fac e s Another potential solution, beam steering smart materials that direct signal energy to where it is most required, but it is not clear what the energy cost will be!
- 14. 6G 5G 4G 3G 2G 1G 2G 3G 2.5G Voicecentric Same genome 3.5G ~9 years 4G 5G Data centric New genome 6G Smarts centric Radical genome ! 7G? ~3kW ~1kW G r e a t e r B W M o r e D a t a L o w e r L a t e n c y M o r e T o w e r s D e n s e r N e t H i g h e r P o w e r <100kW? ~9 years ~9 years ~9 years ~0.5kW ~10-20kW IMPLICATIONS
- 15. TIP OF THEICEBeRG ? THE BIG PICture S m a r t C i t I E S
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- 18. N e tw o r k e d f o r L I F E This redefines the expression - ‘Always On-Line’
- 19. Why? To save theplanet and humanity by powering sustainability! We have no suitable networks or wireless systems & technologies! We will amplify the Cyber Attack surface by orders of magnitude we have no e ff ective defence !
- 20. I4.o: Kernel New materials,sciences, tech, engineering, processes, robotics, intelligences, thinking… BIO-TECH nano-TECH AI AL QC Robotics Superior metals, plastics, ceramics, electronics and eletro-optics, mechtranics, sensors and actuators +++ High efficiency processing + forming @ very low energy & material cost >95% 3/4R
- 21. IoT The IoT asthe nervous system of societies, resources & the planet BIO-TECH nano-TECH Lower energy Lower waste Less friction New materials New industries New processes New capabilities I 4 . 0 c ata ly t i c s ta r t i n g p o i n t AI AL QC Robotics
- 22. S E LF H E A L I N G
- 23. D U MB t o S M A R T Wired and wireless vehicle IoT D o z e n s o f s e n s o r s , r e c o r d e r s , c o n t r o l u n i t s , a g g r e g a t e d b y o n - b o a rd a n a l y s i s w i t h I o T / I n t e r n e t c o n n e c t v i a m u l t i p l e c h a n n e l s WiFi,3, 4, 5G Direct to Service Centre Communication Direct Car-to-Car Avoiding 3, 4, 5G Congestion
- 24. R E TAI L W A S T E We over manufacture/produce due to outdated logistics systems !
- 25. Categories Devices Sensors Vehicles Systems Buildings Wearables Appliances Components Infrastructure Function Safety Security Logistics Inventories Monitoring Use Industrial Control MonitoringHealth Historical Records Environmental Control Purpose Repair ReUse Recycle RePurpose Materials Recovery Environmental Policing Performance Assurance Maintenance Scheduling ++++ THE Categorising of T H I N G S i s E n d l e s s Lists of this kind see estimates of 30 - 100 Bn IoT Things
- 26. 2000 04 0812 16 2020 Initial Over Optimism Corrective Pessimism 50 10 20 30 40 Actuality Following Moore’s Commercial IoT ‘Things’ Forecast 2030 - 50 looks to BE a d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e
- 27. LoRaWan 4/5G/LTE WiFiBlueTooth ZigNee Range ~20km ~10km ~100m ~50m ~50m BitRate ~50kb/s ~1Mbit/s ~500Mbit/s ~1Mbit/s ~200kb/s Power Low High Medium Low Low Topology Star Star Star-Mesh P2P, Star, Mesh, Broadcast Star Cost/Module ~$10 ~$20 ~$5 ~$3 ~$15 sample IoT wireless All energy and space hungry, too expensive, too complex, & do not fit future operational needs
- 28. Recorded power received overa 24 hour period Mehdawi (2013). Spectrum Occupancy Survey HULL Artificial spectrum crowding DUE To old wireless model
- 29. Allocated Bandwidth Active Bandwidth BandOccupancy = Even VHF & UHF Seldom > 20% Occupancy So FULL YET So EMPTY !
- 30. O2 O2 H2O H2O <1.0% <0.01% A natural fi lterfor high density short distance networking 50 10 dB/km 1 0.1 0.01 0.0010 10 20 30 GHz 100 200 400 Occupancy <10% NO spectrum Shortage!
- 31. Degrees of f re e d o m S/N Frequency Time I = k.B.T.log2(1+kS/N) Invisible @ >10dB below the thermal noise Think information volume and not signal space ! The same information conveyed by different combinations of S/N , BW and Time 100% digital realisation, ultra low energy (µW- pW) signalling << thermal noise over very short distances with little/no control of frequency occupancy
- 32. BW ~ 500MHz UW B - T O - H y p e r ( H W B ) All digital no analogue - mixers, amplifies, filters UWB HWB Hyper Wide Band BW ~ 50GHz Negates phase noise, oscillator stability, scattering, interference, reflections, improves security and link resilience… <1bit/Hz <<1bit/Hz
- 33. Active Node Repeater Node LastHop Node NOTE 1: A simplified 3 hop network is shown for clarity - 5 hop limits may be ideal… Last Hop Vector sees no further propagation Aggregating Access Node Common practice depicts nets as 2D, static, and planar, which they are not! The grey layer indicates further hidden dimensions. CoNceptual IOT MESHNET
- 34. CoNceptual S I MU L AT I O N In this simple (all nodes are equal) simulation the predominance of dynamic clustering is soon evident having started from a random distribution
- 35. So what Of Se c u r i t y Nothing from our past fi ts the bill and we need something new!
- 36. The Iot willmagnify the attack surface We are already losing the cyber war hands down and the ‘Dark Side’ earnings are now over $28Tn per year Legacy thinking and tech will see us wide open to attack and completely defenceless AI must replace humans in this domain - and we need a new operating philosophy
- 37. Auto-immunity Mirrors biological forebears ICs ISPs WiFi Hubs LANs Cards Traffic Servers Circuits Devices Internet Networks Organisations Companies Platforms Groups People Mobile Fixed Autonomousand evolutionary Relentless everywhere 365 x 24 x 7 Can W E EMULATE THIS BIO Phalange IN THE SILICON W ORLD
- 38. Broadcasting Malware Responding with updated protection Wider Network Updated Latest Solution Update Dynamicisolation of infected devices and components leading to repair A mix of clean and infected Auto-immunity
- 39. Prediction /Surprise “The IoT willsee the spontaneous emergence of new forms of Arti fi cial Intelligence” Things that think want to link and Things that link want to think
- 40. Natural Process Linking at anatomic, molecular, cellular and organism level occurs throughout the biological world, and it happens in the electronic world too ! Things that think want to link and Things that link want to think
- 41. T H EL a s t B I G Q u e s t i o n ? “Will we be smart enough to recognise new intelligences when they spontaneously appear”
- 42. Th e fu ture belongs to th e most adaptableand th ose who dare ! Th ank You petercochrane.com