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DYNAMIC Clouds of People &Things Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.orgCOCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Outdated  and  outmoded A dying world being overtaken by new freedoms Ineffective Expensive Slow Inefficient Corporate Proc...
PERSONAL  DEVICES  &  NETWORKING New freedoms of choice, relationships, networks, actions Greater creativity Faster respon...
WearablE  Tech  to  come Easy to predict but hard to fathom! 50% of users give up within 2 weeks Sure to succeed: Bendy Ph...
NEW  INDUSTRIAL  MODELS Printing of flexible electronics and batteries Colour programable Integrated auto repair
New  industrial  processes 3, 4D printing + programming of biological forms Electronic design No assembly required Network...
No  casting  or  machining > 300 superior parts are now printed Better performance using less raw material and energy with...
FRont  line  production Shipping designs and not parts
New  industrial  processes Bio - NanoTech + Integral AI + AL + Adaptation Open Design Open Hardware Open Distribution
Logistic  processes Expensive, inefficient, damaging Demands the economic tagging and tracking of things… ! materials proc...
TECHNOLOGY  NETWORKED  SOCIETY No accident but not 100% clear either Speed of Change Adaptability and Flexibility...
SUSTAINABLE  SOCIETIES Demands connected people & things New economic thinking demands more than $$$ decisions - we should...
INTERNET  ENERGY  COST Estimated @ 3 - 5% of global capacity Raghavan and Ma 2011 Corporate Machines Personal Devices Netw...
INTERNET  OF  THINGS  ENERGY  COST Estimated @ > 3000% of global capacity Assuming we continue the same 3,4,5G, WiFi netwo...
A  SCALEABLE  SOLUTION  IS  REQUIRED Using sustainable less energy than today Must extend to all peoples and things across...
EXPONENTIALs Confound people ! More data/information generated this year than in the previous 5000… ….and next year and...
Baby ~ 239 splits Man ~ 244 splits EXPONENTIALs That build us !
WE  DON’T  GET  scale ! > 100 New Domains Registered > 100 New LinkedIn Accounts > 200 New Twitter Accounts >15k Mob...
NETWORK  SCALE Approximations to reality ! Telegraph N Telephone N2 Internet 2N Clouds N1/2 - est...
c a u s a l i t y Beyond Serendipity ! It is impossible to define the o r i g i n s o f a l l t h e d r i v i n g factors,...
FUTURE  PROJECTIONS Extremely varied! An aggregation of Cisco, Intel, Oracle Gartner McKinsey A B I , B I I , I D C GSMA +...
50 ! 40 ! 30 ! 20 ! 10 ! 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9 Year Human Population Things on Line ...
CLOUDS  PLURAL E vo l v i n g s p e c i e s D e v i c e C l u s t e r D e s k Ta b l e Ro o m H o m e O f f i c e B u i l ...
Diverse/different/unpredictable routings, connections and increasingly hidden and disguised/distributed data & stora...
people  and  things Greater freedom and diversity Behaviours & habits evolving Substantial cost savings Obvious security r...
Things  and  things Meeting ecological & people needs Old industry methods cannot do the job New technologies/techniques n...
Connected  on  Off  line Not everything has to be globally accessible….or on-line all the time People to people People to ...
Device  to  DEVICE Meetings and file sharing Container to Ship Ultra-Secure DataTransport =The Pocket !
No  wires  no  fuss Getting rid of the knitting The only wiring used is to deliver power ! Operates on and off line for ...
Device  to  PRODUCT Monitoring the in:out and effect
Device  to  DEVICE Off Line Medical Records
people  to  people
Augmented  Reality  Viewing Cameras in the crowd covering every angle
Topping  up  atoms  &  bits Service Info, Maps, Local Data, Music, Movies, Games, Advertising +++
3,4,5G nets cannot support the demands of future traffic and logistic networks… but vehicle to vehicle systems...
container  to  container Ship to shore Container to Ship Low power, long life, self organising Hostile environment, batter...
container  to  container Truck to 3G Container toTruck Truck to truck static or on the move Truck Fill: UK ~17% ...
MASSIVE  to  Minuscule Wireless nets are now predominantly local 1915 2015 103 106 109 1012 103 1 10 –3 AverageTransmitter...
network  implications It is impossible to beat the Laws of Physics Maxwell’s Field Theory Shannon Information Theory Basic...
More  wireless  nodes Means far more optical fibre feeders FTTProperty FTTCampus FTTStreet FTTHome FTTOffice FTTRoom WiFi ...
PERSPECTIVES Important changes BPON GPON invented to save optical fibre use at a time when it cost 50c/m, but now it costs...
THE  FUTURE  10  -  30  years  out Dominated by wireless that is short range and low power Supported by a massive optical ...
Thank You ca-global.org
 cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
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Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure

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The internet will not scale to support >7Bn people and >50Bn things on line, but Clouds and Networks Without Infrastructure will, and they are neither singular nor static.  Clouds are entirely dynamic and multi-modal with; public, private, personal, open, closed, government and commercial clouds that are fixed, mobile, long and short lived, permanent and transitory. In addition the new degrees of freedom that Clouds afford makes them inherently more secure and resilient than any network medium we have created before.  But, not all clouds are equal, and neither is all data!

The era of IT Departments providing centralised networking and security is drawing to a rapid close in the same way that sitting in front of a PC in an office all day is becoming unworkable.  So, it is time to rethink what has to change in order to adapt to rapidly growing BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) and BMOB (Be My Own Boss) cultures. At the same time, ecological, social, commercial and technology demands are pushing toward more and smaller devices, the tagging and tracking of everything, whilst using less material and energy. This all demands more wireless and new modes of networking demanding more optical fibre especially in the last mile where Point to Point systems will replace the outmoded BPON and GPON technologies of the past. In this symmetric wide bandwidth future there is no place or part to plat by the old copper local loop technologies, and the mobile operators @ 3,4,5G will be further relegated to transporting < 1% of the total traffic of the future connected world. New species of WiFi and BlueTooth will emerge to dominate mobile connectivity and transport with the short range hops to a vastly increased number of fibre fed hot spots in room, on floor, in building, and on campus.

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Dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure

  1. DYNAMIC Clouds of People &Things Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.orgCOCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
  2. Outdated  and  outmoded A dying world being overtaken by new freedoms Ineffective Expensive Slow Inefficient Corporate Process
  3. PERSONAL  DEVICES  &  NETWORKING New freedoms of choice, relationships, networks, actions Greater creativity Faster response
  4. WearablE  Tech  to  come Easy to predict but hard to fathom! 50% of users give up within 2 weeks Sure to succeed: Bendy Phone, Smart Jewellery, Medical/Sensor Wear, +++ ?? Recent Fails: Smart Watch ?? A technology from > 20 years ago…
  5. NEW  INDUSTRIAL  MODELS Printing of flexible electronics and batteries Colour programable Integrated auto repair
  6. New  industrial  processes 3, 4D printing + programming of biological forms Electronic design No assembly required Networked distribution
  7. No  casting  or  machining > 300 superior parts are now printed Better performance using less raw material and energy with a higher recycling %
  8. FRont  line  production Shipping designs and not parts
  9. New  industrial  processes Bio - NanoTech + Integral AI + AL + Adaptation Open Design Open Hardware Open Distribution
  10. Logistic  processes Expensive, inefficient, damaging Demands the economic tagging and tracking of things… ! materials processing production h a n d l i n g o w n e r s h i p repurpose, recycle We have to engineer huge reductions in material/energy waste
  11. TECHNOLOGY  NETWORKED  SOCIETY No accident but not 100% clear either Speed of Change Adaptability and Flexibility New Technology Entries Competition Growing Global Market Threat Ecological Humanitarian Demands BYOD BMOB OPEN APPS Social Mobility BIG Data
  12. SUSTAINABLE  SOCIETIES Demands connected people & things New economic thinking demands more than $$$ decisions - we should at least include ecological and societal impact… …to stop producing more and more for the few and start providing sufficient for the many……
  13. INTERNET  ENERGY  COST Estimated @ 3 - 5% of global capacity Raghavan and Ma 2011 Corporate Machines Personal Devices Networks Switches Support Routers Servers Admin Overall energy/economic gain ~ 10%
  14. INTERNET  OF  THINGS  ENERGY  COST Estimated @ > 3000% of global capacity Assuming we continue the same 3,4,5G, WiFi network strategy with mobiles, Fat Clients, with configurations and operations for 7Bn people & >50Bn things online
  15. A  SCALEABLE  SOLUTION  IS  REQUIRED Using sustainable less energy than today Must extend to all peoples and things across the entire surface of the planet as an essential par t of a green agenda that minimises global waste of energy and materials in order to satisfy all human demands and needs by transforming industrial economies and living…
  16. EXPONENTIALs Confound people ! More data/information generated this year than in the previous 5000… ….and next year and the year after, and… Counterintuitive for decision makers, managers, politicians
  17. Baby ~ 239 splits Man ~ 244 splits EXPONENTIALs That build us !
  18. WE  DON’T  GET  scale ! > 100 New Domains Registered > 100 New LinkedIn Accounts > 200 New Twitter Accounts >15k Mobile App Downloads > 14k New Adverts posted > 700k Internet Searches > 1k NewVideos Posted > 1M FaceBook Updates > 7k Flkr Pic Uploads > 100k New Tweets > 200M eMails Sent > 400k Skype Calls ! > 20M Messages > 20k Smart Phones Shipped > 7k Tablets Shipped Internet ‘happenings’ by the minute !
  19. NETWORK  SCALE Approximations to reality ! Telegraph N Telephone N2 Internet 2N Clouds N1/2 - estimate based on multiple clouds ! No Infrastructure Nets N0.1 - a first guess !! Based upon the average amount of traffic generated by ’N’ similar nodes extended to include the aggregated energy consumption with each generation of technology including reducing wireless span
  20. c a u s a l i t y Beyond Serendipity ! It is impossible to define the o r i g i n s o f a l l t h e d r i v i n g factors, but they are far more than chance and represent a global need to ensure: ! - Sustainability - Survivability - Stability - Security
  21. FUTURE  PROJECTIONS Extremely varied! An aggregation of Cisco, Intel, Oracle Gartner McKinsey A B I , B I I , I D C GSMA +++ follows
  22. 50 ! 40 ! 30 ! 20 ! 10 ! 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9 Year Human Population Things on Line Bn A modest (pessimistic) spread of projections With the kind support of Lew Tucker, Cisco Systems, 2013 Aggregated  PROJECTIONS Using over 10 referenced citations
  23. CLOUDS  PLURAL E vo l v i n g s p e c i e s D e v i c e C l u s t e r D e s k Ta b l e Ro o m H o m e O f f i c e B u i l d i n g C a m p u s To w n C i t y Re g i o n C o u n t r y C o m m e r c i a l G o v e r n m e n t B u s i n e s s D e f e n c e C h a r i t y P r i v a t e P u b l i c P r i v a t e C l o s e d S e c r e t C l o s e d O p e n + + + + Tr a n s i t o r y M o b i l e F i x e d + + + + D y n a m i c S t a t i c D e c o y Re a l + + +
  24. Diverse/different/unpredictable routings, connections and increasingly hidden and disguised/distributed data & storage depth Invisible Clo ud Corporate/Private /Government Clou d Public /Open Cloud Decoy Clo ud Storage Clo ud Back Up Clo ud Corporate/Private /Government Clo ud HIDDEN  DEPTH  SECURITY Dynamic Cloud to Cloud diversity Reduced determinism Distributed Storage Different locations Multiple providers Many devices/OS Distributed data Config varieties Dynamic Apps Short sessions Data half life Transitory++ ++++++ Clo ud
  25. people  and  things Greater freedom and diversity Behaviours & habits evolving Substantial cost savings Obvious security risks Benefits understood BYOD new norm More mobility New freedoms Enhanced security options Need to share overrides all Social net-working a vital tool Amplified creativity and flexibility Accelerating transient employments Revitalising industry &economic growth ++++++
  26. Things  and  things Meeting ecological & people needs Old industry methods cannot do the job New technologies/techniques needed Product/component tracking vital Minimal energy cycles need Material waste necessary Maximal repurpose /reuse Extreme recovery/recycle Enhanced security options Sufficient overrides luxury Global not local application More global applicability Local creation & sourcing Vastly reduced logistics ++++++
  27. Connected  on  Off  line Not everything has to be globally accessible….or on-line all the time People to people People to things Things to things Local storage Presentations Synchronising Security scans Development Production Packaging Assembly Design ++++++
  28. Device  to  DEVICE Meetings and file sharing Container to Ship Ultra-Secure DataTransport =The Pocket !
  29. No  wires  no  fuss Getting rid of the knitting The only wiring used is to deliver power ! Operates on and off line for entertainment and for work
  30. Device  to  PRODUCT Monitoring the in:out and effect
  31. Device  to  DEVICE Off Line Medical Records
  32. people  to  people
  33. Augmented  Reality  Viewing Cameras in the crowd covering every angle
  34. Topping  up  atoms  &  bits Service Info, Maps, Local Data, Music, Movies, Games, Advertising +++
  35. 3,4,5G nets cannot support the demands of future traffic and logistic networks… but vehicle to vehicle systems can…by providing the most efficient and relevant linking of users reporting their status and sharing local/pertinent information vehicle  to  vehicle Low power, local, immediate
  36. container  to  container Ship to shore Container to Ship Low power, long life, self organising Hostile environment, battery life, & capacity demands preclude 3,4,5G mobile solutions, but wifi and /or BlueTooth can satisfy the requirements
  37. container  to  container Truck to 3G Container toTruck Truck to truck static or on the move Truck Fill: UK ~17% EU ~ 20% US ~ 22% Estimated Global Logistic Losses ~ $2Tn
  38. MASSIVE  to  Minuscule Wireless nets are now predominantly local 1915 2015 103 106 109 1012 103 1 10 –3 AverageTransmitterPower TotalofAllTransmitters T Kg g W
  39. network  implications It is impossible to beat the Laws of Physics Maxwell’s Field Theory Shannon Information Theory Basic Geometry Range Equation
  40. More  wireless  nodes Means far more optical fibre feeders FTTProperty FTTCampus FTTStreet FTTHome FTTOffice FTTRoom WiFi >> 3,4G PON >> BPON PON >> GPON
  41. PERSPECTIVES Important changes BPON GPON invented to save optical fibre use at a time when it cost 50c/m, but now it costs <2c/m we can afford P2P fibre. It satisfies all the equations of cost reduced complexity, reliability and future proofing WiFi ~ 97% net traffic 3,4G ~ 3% net traffic P2P PON Cost/Benefit GPON, BPON Cost/Benefit Mobile nets are minor players when it comes to internet connectivity and capacity
  42. THE  FUTURE  10  -  30  years  out Dominated by wireless that is short range and low power Supported by a massive optical fibre network in the local loop ! Hot Optical R&DTopics Wireless over optical fibre THz & GHz wave generation Optical free space transmission Network reliability & resilience Seamless handovers /transitions All optical switching, processing, coding Wireless - Optical -Wireless translation Transparency - irradiation of bands and channels
  43. Thank You ca-global.org
 cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

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