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Quantifying AI
and What Comes Next?
Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc
Sentient Systems Research
MayDay 2024 London
P o s i t i o n i n g
& R E A L I S M
- All new technologies create a degree of concern
- Initial reporting tends to focus on ‘downers’
- A media feeding frenzy is now the norm
- Hollywood often conditions expectation
- Most commentators never built an AI
- Most politicians never used an AI
- Negativity/threat scenarios sell
- Media promotes negativity
- Dystopia is popular !
P o s i t i o n i n g
& R E A L I S M
- It has taken ~80 years to get here
- AI has attained new levels of capability
- Computing power has been the prime limiter
- YES, AI has overtaken humans in many spheres
- AI can solve many problems that are way beyond us
- AI is already saving human lives in medicine & care
- AI is now core to the survival of our species
- Our future is about a symbiosis with AI
DISPELLING
H Y S T E R I A
“Robots and AI don’t
type, they plug in”
Unthinking nonsense !
“Media Panic: A big threat
to jobs and the survival
of life on Earth”
D I S P E L L I N G
OLD WIsdoms
The human gold standard
OR:
play chess
beat humans
beat a grand master
be cognisant like humans
AI will never:
pass the Turing test
master complexity
be innovative
be creative
Nonsensical
Expectations
Speciated diversification
Mobile
Animated
Integrated
Socio/Environ
Sensorially Rich
Fixed/Mobile
Inanimate/Robotic
Sensorially Deprived
Socio/Environ/Networked
“All lifeforms & entities evolve/mutate
biologically/by design to function in a
given environment - we should not be
expecting to see comparative abilities”
S M A L L B R A I N
Performance
Speciated diversification
“All lifeforms & entities evolve/mutate
biologically/by design to function in a
given environment - we should not be
expecting to see comparative abilities”
“We have 3 machines that
cannot be exhaustively tested
- can you come up with a means of
quantifying their relative intelligences?”
Genesis: 2009 A
Chance Enquiry
Systems are now so big/complex,
we can no longer fully test them !
iP3G >> iP5G in 15years
Pixels 20x
RAM 20x
Storage 32x
Clock 6x
Attitude
Philosophers: Let’s think how a chicken works
Scientists: Lets dissect to see how it works
Engineers: How di
ffi
cult can it be? Let’s build one!
Arrogance and Ignorance can, at times, be
be positive attributes, especially when a
deadline is involved … ?!$&%@:
E N G I N E E R I N G
Engineering = Applied Science
“Engineering creates the instruments
of observation and measurement
necessary to advance our
understanding”
“Science and Engineering enjoy a synergistic
relationship - an interdependence that sees
them feeding o
ff
, and feeding, each other”
E n g i n e e r i n g
N 0 E x c u s e s !
“Scientists (Mathematicians & Philosophers) are free to
declare that there is no solution to a problem: BUT,
Engineers enjoy no such luxury - we always have
to find a solution, even if it is wrong”!
Guess
Iterate
Analogies
Approximate
Experiment
Compute
Consult
Model
Trial &
Error
Mouse Brain: Structural Mapping
Top Down Fails
Only provide general insights
By analogy: “You can’t infer
much about human society
from a road map of the UK”
The detail: “Hidden within
the functional complexity”
AXIOM
This
will never
understand
This
Vis Thermodynamics
Increasingly apparent, and we most likely need the help of
Quantum Computers - not going to happen soon!
Way beyond anything conceived and built by man
and in no way resembles an electronic computer
- moreover, it is distributed across the entire body!
HUMAN
B R A I N
~1011 neurons with ~102 - 105 links
Human body ~ has yet to be charted!
> 50 di
ff
erent chemicals in
fl
uence
synaptic switching
“Human brain and nervous system
has far more unique states than the
number of atoms in the universe”
“Intelligence is state related within
any given structural form”
Latest
D e ta i l
~15 x 30 x µm Frame
Demands AI +
Quantum Computing ++??
As of today we
lack the necessary
technology to understand!
M e a n i n g l e s s - I Q
M e a n i n g l e s s
T u r i n g T E S T
“The good news Dave, is that the
computer’s passed the Turing
Test, but you have failed”
GO
Poker
Chess
Complexity
Mammograms
Comp Games
Protein Folding
Medical Diagnosis
Composing Music
Drawing/Painting
Circuit Design
Data Analysis
Transcription
Chip Design
Translation
++++
Human Failing
T u r i n g T e s t
C O M M O N
E R R O R s
Physical and mental abilities evolve to meet the
specific demands of given environments - many
of which we cannot survive!
“Speciated superiority is a nonsense”
Human capabilities and attributes evolved to
exploit the physical opportunities of surface
living on planet earth - not in water, air, or
space!
W e n e e d t o b e a s k i n g ; “ W h e r e
c a n A I b e s t h e l p a n d s u p p o r t
h u m a n i t y , a n d h o w d o w e f o r m
s y m b i o t i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s ? ”
Alfred Binet IQ Test ~1909
"Philosophers have given their moral approval to the deplorable
verdict that affirms human intelligence is fixed, and cannot be
augmented. We must protest against this brutal pessimism; we will
try to demonstrate that it is founded on nothing"
A test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour,
equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of an actual human
based on a natural language conversation. All participants are
separated. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the
human, the machine is said to have passed.
Alan Turing Test ~1950
W O R T H ?
Taken out of their original constraining bounds of
application, these tests are of dubious value!
1) Top down study is self limiting
3) There is no common lexicon
4) Paucity of potential models
5) An endless sea of opinions
6) Interdisciplinary confusions
7) Assuming AI equivalences??
No pertinent visible successes in terms
of meaningful quantifications, and/or,
comparative measures
Day 1: Where
To S ta r t ?
“An ability to learn from experience and to adapt/shape, selected environments”
Day 1: DEFINITION
All are of a general (descriptive) form:
“A capacity for abstraction, logic, understanding, self-awareness, learning, emotional
knowledge, reasoning, planning, creativity critical thinking, and problem solving”
+
+
+
+
From an engineering perspective all such descriptors are useless!
“The faculty of rational behaviour”
“The capacity to experience feelings and sensation”
>1000 years of thinking & debating
sees >150 intelligence de
fi
nitions
DAY 1: MY MIND SET
Dr Johnson/Humpty Dumpty threads!
“When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less”
Humpty Dumpty ~ 1871
Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass
“Language is an instrument of Science, and words are but signs of ideas”
“Nothing is ever attempted if all possible objections must
fi
rst be overcome”
Dr Samuel Johnson ~ 1755
“I will de
fi
ne, exactly what each word actually means”
“Observation; The Brain is not fully contained by the skull”
Peter Cochrane ~ 1999
W h at a b o u t T H E
Nervous SysteM?
All the brains are not in the head !
Our widow to, and connection with, reality
Fixed & Mobile intelligences are grossly di
ff
erent
“Without sensors, actuators, and communication, a brain
will not exhibit any recognisable intelligence”
“Cooperative, communicative, connected, intelligences
are the star performers - at the top of the stack”
PUBLISHED Studies
Spanning machines and biological life
Worryingly simple/complex and clearly wrong/inadequate!
At a macro level of memory and processing power Intelligence ∝M .P
Unbelievably complex at a micro level of neurons Modelling dendrites,
synapse, axons +
Neuron - synapse switching’ appears to be
in
fl
uenced by > 50 di
ff
erent chemicals
Some evidence of mechanical, wireless and
Quantum e
ff
ects have also been reported
A s s u m e d
S i m p l i c i t y
Erroneous
Human brain: analogue/digital computation +
memory within neurons - not approximated
by a transistor or logic gate!
My best estimate: we need ~106 x increase
in Super Computing Power to come close!
K i l l e r
ProbleM
We cannot describe, accurately, quantify,
or measure absolute intelligence in any
biological or arti
fi
cial form !
“Some comparative intelligence measure
formulation is the only hope for the
problem in hand”
Actuator
A
System
Environs
Sensor
S
S p a r s e M o d e l
S impl e st p ossible configurati on
A single and simple biological
cell or slime mould
A thermostat or light sensitive
switch
No signal/state processing
or memory
Actuator
A
System
Environs
Sensor
S
A D D I T I O N
O F M E M O R Y
Memory
M
Carnivorous plants
A programmable thermostat
It is not exactly clear if any signal
processing is necessary as a discreet
function but this, conveniently, turns
out to be unimportant !
“A degree of ‘processing’ may be
integral to the Sensor/Actuator
and the Memory function”
S I M P L E L i f e
C o M p l e x O P
No signal/state processing or memory,
no hunting/complex problem solving
capabilities - simple elements combining
to create an intelligent collective!
Dispersed random walks.
Food detection & communication
Collective/Integrated feeding
Processor
P1
Memory
M
Processor
P2
System
Environs
Sensor
S
Actuator
A
Many species of very
simple insects
Arti
fi
cial Ants capable of
solving the Travelling
Salesman Problem
PROCESSING
& M E M O R Y
In Nature processing and memory are
combined/distributed in the synapses -
only ‘we’ make them discrete in our
Silicon World
I M P O R T A N T
R E VE L AT I O N
Long term comatosed hospital patients
Can appear brain dead due to a lack of
I/O - ie Sensors and Actuators
Clinically Dead
- No eye movement
- No re
fl
ex action
- No bodily responses
I M P O R T A N T
C O N D I T I O N A L S
These are helpful/vital in setting the
bounds on the form of our final
solution and chosen path of analysis
Intelligence = 0 IF
P + M
S + A = 0
Intelligence ≠ 0 IF = 0
Without any I/O - Sensory/Actuator
faculty no intelligence is evident
Without any Processing or Memory
intelligence is still possible
System
Environs
Memory
ShortTerm
Processor
1
Actuators
Sensors
Memory
LongTerm
Processor
2
scope for ever
more complexity
More feedback/feedforward
loops create local reactive
centres and improve responses
times aka the human body
Actuator
A1
System
Environs
Memory
Mlocal
Actuator
Memory
Mshort
Memory
Mlong
Processor
P21
Processor
P11
Sensors
Ultimately This
Defies analysis
More elements and loops sees
complexity overpowering our
math framework and solvability
Vis the ‘3 body problem in Cosmology
The number of feedback loops defeating
Mathematical Analysis is ≦ 5
Actuator
Processor
P1
System
Environs
Memory
M
Processor
P2
Sensors
S
cHoice of Viable
S ta r t i n g P o i n t
A model of a biological creature
and/or autonomous robot of very
modest capabilities
Where: s, p ,m, a are complex temporal operators
that cannot in general be fully de
fi
ned or detailed
Actuator
A
Processor
P1
System
Environs
Processor
P2
si
i
o
p1 si
(1 + m) p1 si
Sensors
S
.
Memory
M
A s s u m i n g A
Nomenclature
a(1 + m + p1 p2 + p2 m p1 ) si
A s s u m e d
d e f i n i t i o n
Intelligence = Orchestrated (Directed or Forced)System Entropy
“This de
fi
nition is not up for debate, as we are
exploring what it might reveal and/or imply”
N e c e s s a r y
a d j u s t m e n t
(Relative) Intelligence = I = IEi - EoI
As intelligences can both increase or decrease the system Entropy;
we rede
fi
ne in terms of the Modular value…
NOTE: Entropy E = The information required
to exactly de
fi
ne the
state of the system
Ic = I Ei - Eo I = I Ei ( si ) - Eo ( a[1 + m + p1 p2 + p2 m p1 ] si ) I
Where: s, p ,m, a are complex operators that cannot,
in general, be fully de
fi
ned or detailed
E N G I N E E R I N G
LICENCE APPLIED
We simply neglect/ignore/hide the
time variability of all the functions
and mask with a new formulation
Comparative
Intelligence
Ic = I Ei - E[a.s ( 1 + m + p + mp ) ] I
E N G I N E E R I N G
LICENCE APPLIED
Combining similar complex
o p e r a t o r s f o r t h e e a s e o f
manipulation and explanation
Finally, we have something meeting
all our practical bounds and limiters
that we can work with in practice
Ic = k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P + M + P.M ) ]
System Constants
Ic ~ k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P.M ) ]
For P.M >> (P + M)
S h u f f l i n g A N
ENTROPIC LEAP
This resemble the Shannon-Hartley
theorem in Information Theory
Don’t Panic - we are about to
focus on the implications
Ic ~ k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P.M ) ]
S h u f f l i n g A N
ENTROPIC LEAP
This resemble the Shannon-Hartley
theorem in Information Theory
A P R I M A R Y
IMPLICATION
We are not racing toward a singularity, and
machines are not taking over anytime soon
as people have previously projected/feared
Increasing S. P. M. A by a factor of 1000
would only see intelligence grow 10 fold due
to the logarithmic nature of intelligence !
EXPONENTIAL
V logarithmic
Estimated Entropic Growth
of AI capabilities
A I A N D T H E
F U T U R E ?
Humanity remains the biggest threat
Accelerating technological revolution
Dystopian possibilities still haunt humans
Improves every sphere of human endeavour
Transforms the nature of work & employment
Revolutionises product design and production
AI/QAI decodes Genomic - Protein comms riddle
++++
Magnifies the kill rate of most weapons systems!
Humans evolved for millennia to attain a
nominal stasis - but AI is exponential - so more
equivalences and ‘supremums’ are expected
I N e v i tA b l e
-100M -1M 1940 1990 2040
-103
-106
-109
-1012
-1015
-1018
FLOPS
Human intelligence
has now ‘
fl
at-lined’
AI has only recently reached
a visibly exponential phase
Notice this is a Computing
Operations estimate and
not an intelligence score
A r t i f i c i a l G e n e r a l
I n t e l l i g e n c e ( A G I )
The progression of AI is most likely going to mirror history of modern
computing with a gradual migration from ‘one task capability/expertise’ to
a ‘multi-capability/expertise’ expanding to general purpose realisations.
For computing it took ~30years, but for AI it may well be shorter as AI is
now a member of the workforce including the analysis and design teams!
“Technology influences and accelerates the creation of ever more technology”
Human-AI voice interactions now the
norm and getting better by the day!
E m e r g E n T
P e r s o n a l i t y
C r i t i c a l
T h i n k i n g
Life introduces physical order into a system
Intelligence transforms information in systems
Both introduce Positive Entropy into systems
Ergo; Life and Intelligence are strongly related
“Life in
fl
uences/changes its supporting environment”
“Intelligence modulates/changes the processes of life”
H Y P O T H E S I S
C O N C AT E N AT E D
This is increasingly supported by a
growing body of biological evidence
Life => an emergent property of Complexity
Intelligence => an emergent property of Life
Sentience => an emergent property of Intelligence
Complexity => an emergent property of Clustering in Chaos
Complexity & Chaos => the ground state of our non-linear universe
T hinkin g the right way
People fear, & complain, overlook the big gains
V i v e
L a
d i f f e r e n c e
G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 2
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
I B M W a t s o n
G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 4
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
Exponential
E d u c a t i o n
Huma n 5 - 2 0k operations/
li fetime
Netw or ked AI/ Robots >20k
opera tions/day
Exponential
C a pa b i l i t i e s
“AI~200M Proteins decoded in 3 months”
“Humans <100 decodes folds in decades”
Protein folding is the key to complex life
and blights such as cancer…
Exemplar
N e w C r e a t i v i t y
Exemplar
N e w C r e a t i v i t y Criticism
It is just copying and
aping what human
composers have done !
Retort 1
You mean exactly
like human
composers do ?
Retort 2
AI has only just got
into this game that
humans have be at
for well over 3M years
W H A T W E
D o K N O W
MASS
Only By Poor
M a n a g e m e n t
“Every developed and developing nation
is short of people - the UK has over 500k
vacancies that are impacting the GDP”
“The biggest challenge is transformation
- living in the past will see companies fail”
Management
C h a l l e n g e
Getting the right aptitude, skill set, and
experience into the right job and
support human and machine with a
continual training programme
Technology driven change is
accelerating, and it isn’t going
away fall behind and you lose
your edge, and failure follows!
L e a d e r s h i p
C h a l l e n g e
The ‘engineering’ of symbiotic
teams that are innovative,
flexible, and adaptable -
a simple minded ‘MBA
focus’ on efficiency &
the bottom-line will
kill the company
“Innovation & the
new has to be a
constant priority”
Modern societies cannot
function without AI
DePendancy
Here Today
It is core to health,
wealth and care
It is prime in achieving
sustainability and equitable
living standards for ~ 8Bn people
The next big leaps will occur as AI is
networked, integrated into robotics, and
advanced sensory systems realising sentience
Look up Uncanny Valley
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-
the-uncanny-valley-4846247
https://www.simplypsychology.org/uncanny-valley.html
F e at u r e s a n d
Forms To Come
F e at u r e s a n d
Forms To Come
Look up Uncanny Valley
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-
the-uncanny-valley-4846247
https://www.simplypsychology.org/uncanny-valley.html
E m e r g e n t
N e t w o r k S
“Things that think want to link”
And
“Thinks that link want to think”
ADVICE: Stop Worrying
START: Engaging/Using/Exploring ASAP
Golden Rule: If a technology
or a feature does not add
value to, or, improve your
life - then ditch it and
try something else!
www.petercochrane.com
T h a n k Y o u

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Quantifying Artificial Intelligence and What Comes Next!

  • 1. Quantifying AI and What Comes Next? Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc Sentient Systems Research MayDay 2024 London
  • 2. P o s i t i o n i n g & R E A L I S M - All new technologies create a degree of concern - Initial reporting tends to focus on ‘downers’ - A media feeding frenzy is now the norm - Hollywood often conditions expectation - Most commentators never built an AI - Most politicians never used an AI - Negativity/threat scenarios sell - Media promotes negativity - Dystopia is popular !
  • 3. P o s i t i o n i n g & R E A L I S M - It has taken ~80 years to get here - AI has attained new levels of capability - Computing power has been the prime limiter - YES, AI has overtaken humans in many spheres - AI can solve many problems that are way beyond us - AI is already saving human lives in medicine & care - AI is now core to the survival of our species - Our future is about a symbiosis with AI
  • 4. DISPELLING H Y S T E R I A “Robots and AI don’t type, they plug in” Unthinking nonsense ! “Media Panic: A big threat to jobs and the survival of life on Earth”
  • 5. D I S P E L L I N G OLD WIsdoms The human gold standard OR: play chess beat humans beat a grand master be cognisant like humans AI will never: pass the Turing test master complexity be innovative be creative
  • 6. Nonsensical Expectations Speciated diversification Mobile Animated Integrated Socio/Environ Sensorially Rich Fixed/Mobile Inanimate/Robotic Sensorially Deprived Socio/Environ/Networked “All lifeforms & entities evolve/mutate biologically/by design to function in a given environment - we should not be expecting to see comparative abilities”
  • 7. S M A L L B R A I N Performance Speciated diversification “All lifeforms & entities evolve/mutate biologically/by design to function in a given environment - we should not be expecting to see comparative abilities”
  • 8. “We have 3 machines that cannot be exhaustively tested - can you come up with a means of quantifying their relative intelligences?” Genesis: 2009 A Chance Enquiry Systems are now so big/complex, we can no longer fully test them ! iP3G >> iP5G in 15years Pixels 20x RAM 20x Storage 32x Clock 6x
  • 9. Attitude Philosophers: Let’s think how a chicken works Scientists: Lets dissect to see how it works Engineers: How di ffi cult can it be? Let’s build one! Arrogance and Ignorance can, at times, be be positive attributes, especially when a deadline is involved … ?!$&%@:
  • 10. E N G I N E E R I N G Engineering = Applied Science “Engineering creates the instruments of observation and measurement necessary to advance our understanding” “Science and Engineering enjoy a synergistic relationship - an interdependence that sees them feeding o ff , and feeding, each other”
  • 11. E n g i n e e r i n g N 0 E x c u s e s ! “Scientists (Mathematicians & Philosophers) are free to declare that there is no solution to a problem: BUT, Engineers enjoy no such luxury - we always have to find a solution, even if it is wrong”! Guess Iterate Analogies Approximate Experiment Compute Consult Model Trial & Error
  • 12. Mouse Brain: Structural Mapping Top Down Fails Only provide general insights By analogy: “You can’t infer much about human society from a road map of the UK” The detail: “Hidden within the functional complexity”
  • 13. AXIOM This will never understand This Vis Thermodynamics Increasingly apparent, and we most likely need the help of Quantum Computers - not going to happen soon!
  • 14. Way beyond anything conceived and built by man and in no way resembles an electronic computer - moreover, it is distributed across the entire body! HUMAN B R A I N ~1011 neurons with ~102 - 105 links Human body ~ has yet to be charted! > 50 di ff erent chemicals in fl uence synaptic switching “Human brain and nervous system has far more unique states than the number of atoms in the universe” “Intelligence is state related within any given structural form”
  • 15. Latest D e ta i l ~15 x 30 x µm Frame Demands AI + Quantum Computing ++?? As of today we lack the necessary technology to understand!
  • 16. M e a n i n g l e s s - I Q
  • 17. M e a n i n g l e s s T u r i n g T E S T “The good news Dave, is that the computer’s passed the Turing Test, but you have failed” GO Poker Chess Complexity Mammograms Comp Games Protein Folding Medical Diagnosis Composing Music Drawing/Painting Circuit Design Data Analysis Transcription Chip Design Translation ++++
  • 18. Human Failing T u r i n g T e s t
  • 19. C O M M O N E R R O R s Physical and mental abilities evolve to meet the specific demands of given environments - many of which we cannot survive! “Speciated superiority is a nonsense” Human capabilities and attributes evolved to exploit the physical opportunities of surface living on planet earth - not in water, air, or space! W e n e e d t o b e a s k i n g ; “ W h e r e c a n A I b e s t h e l p a n d s u p p o r t h u m a n i t y , a n d h o w d o w e f o r m s y m b i o t i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s ? ”
  • 20. Alfred Binet IQ Test ~1909 "Philosophers have given their moral approval to the deplorable verdict that affirms human intelligence is fixed, and cannot be augmented. We must protest against this brutal pessimism; we will try to demonstrate that it is founded on nothing" A test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour, equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of an actual human based on a natural language conversation. All participants are separated. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed. Alan Turing Test ~1950 W O R T H ? Taken out of their original constraining bounds of application, these tests are of dubious value!
  • 21. 1) Top down study is self limiting 3) There is no common lexicon 4) Paucity of potential models 5) An endless sea of opinions 6) Interdisciplinary confusions 7) Assuming AI equivalences?? No pertinent visible successes in terms of meaningful quantifications, and/or, comparative measures Day 1: Where To S ta r t ?
  • 22. “An ability to learn from experience and to adapt/shape, selected environments” Day 1: DEFINITION All are of a general (descriptive) form: “A capacity for abstraction, logic, understanding, self-awareness, learning, emotional knowledge, reasoning, planning, creativity critical thinking, and problem solving” + + + + From an engineering perspective all such descriptors are useless! “The faculty of rational behaviour” “The capacity to experience feelings and sensation” >1000 years of thinking & debating sees >150 intelligence de fi nitions
  • 23. DAY 1: MY MIND SET Dr Johnson/Humpty Dumpty threads! “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less” Humpty Dumpty ~ 1871 Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass “Language is an instrument of Science, and words are but signs of ideas” “Nothing is ever attempted if all possible objections must fi rst be overcome” Dr Samuel Johnson ~ 1755 “I will de fi ne, exactly what each word actually means” “Observation; The Brain is not fully contained by the skull” Peter Cochrane ~ 1999
  • 24. W h at a b o u t T H E Nervous SysteM? All the brains are not in the head ! Our widow to, and connection with, reality Fixed & Mobile intelligences are grossly di ff erent “Without sensors, actuators, and communication, a brain will not exhibit any recognisable intelligence” “Cooperative, communicative, connected, intelligences are the star performers - at the top of the stack”
  • 25. PUBLISHED Studies Spanning machines and biological life Worryingly simple/complex and clearly wrong/inadequate! At a macro level of memory and processing power Intelligence ∝M .P Unbelievably complex at a micro level of neurons Modelling dendrites, synapse, axons +
  • 26. Neuron - synapse switching’ appears to be in fl uenced by > 50 di ff erent chemicals Some evidence of mechanical, wireless and Quantum e ff ects have also been reported A s s u m e d S i m p l i c i t y Erroneous Human brain: analogue/digital computation + memory within neurons - not approximated by a transistor or logic gate! My best estimate: we need ~106 x increase in Super Computing Power to come close!
  • 27. K i l l e r ProbleM We cannot describe, accurately, quantify, or measure absolute intelligence in any biological or arti fi cial form ! “Some comparative intelligence measure formulation is the only hope for the problem in hand”
  • 28. Actuator A System Environs Sensor S S p a r s e M o d e l S impl e st p ossible configurati on A single and simple biological cell or slime mould A thermostat or light sensitive switch No signal/state processing or memory
  • 29. Actuator A System Environs Sensor S A D D I T I O N O F M E M O R Y Memory M Carnivorous plants A programmable thermostat It is not exactly clear if any signal processing is necessary as a discreet function but this, conveniently, turns out to be unimportant ! “A degree of ‘processing’ may be integral to the Sensor/Actuator and the Memory function”
  • 30. S I M P L E L i f e C o M p l e x O P No signal/state processing or memory, no hunting/complex problem solving capabilities - simple elements combining to create an intelligent collective! Dispersed random walks. Food detection & communication Collective/Integrated feeding
  • 31. Processor P1 Memory M Processor P2 System Environs Sensor S Actuator A Many species of very simple insects Arti fi cial Ants capable of solving the Travelling Salesman Problem PROCESSING & M E M O R Y In Nature processing and memory are combined/distributed in the synapses - only ‘we’ make them discrete in our Silicon World
  • 32. I M P O R T A N T R E VE L AT I O N Long term comatosed hospital patients Can appear brain dead due to a lack of I/O - ie Sensors and Actuators Clinically Dead - No eye movement - No re fl ex action - No bodily responses
  • 33. I M P O R T A N T C O N D I T I O N A L S These are helpful/vital in setting the bounds on the form of our final solution and chosen path of analysis Intelligence = 0 IF P + M S + A = 0 Intelligence ≠ 0 IF = 0 Without any I/O - Sensory/Actuator faculty no intelligence is evident Without any Processing or Memory intelligence is still possible
  • 34. System Environs Memory ShortTerm Processor 1 Actuators Sensors Memory LongTerm Processor 2 scope for ever more complexity More feedback/feedforward loops create local reactive centres and improve responses times aka the human body
  • 35. Actuator A1 System Environs Memory Mlocal Actuator Memory Mshort Memory Mlong Processor P21 Processor P11 Sensors Ultimately This Defies analysis More elements and loops sees complexity overpowering our math framework and solvability Vis the ‘3 body problem in Cosmology The number of feedback loops defeating Mathematical Analysis is ≦ 5
  • 36. Actuator Processor P1 System Environs Memory M Processor P2 Sensors S cHoice of Viable S ta r t i n g P o i n t A model of a biological creature and/or autonomous robot of very modest capabilities
  • 37. Where: s, p ,m, a are complex temporal operators that cannot in general be fully de fi ned or detailed Actuator A Processor P1 System Environs Processor P2 si i o p1 si (1 + m) p1 si Sensors S . Memory M A s s u m i n g A Nomenclature a(1 + m + p1 p2 + p2 m p1 ) si
  • 38. A s s u m e d d e f i n i t i o n Intelligence = Orchestrated (Directed or Forced)System Entropy “This de fi nition is not up for debate, as we are exploring what it might reveal and/or imply”
  • 39. N e c e s s a r y a d j u s t m e n t (Relative) Intelligence = I = IEi - EoI As intelligences can both increase or decrease the system Entropy; we rede fi ne in terms of the Modular value… NOTE: Entropy E = The information required to exactly de fi ne the state of the system
  • 40. Ic = I Ei - Eo I = I Ei ( si ) - Eo ( a[1 + m + p1 p2 + p2 m p1 ] si ) I Where: s, p ,m, a are complex operators that cannot, in general, be fully de fi ned or detailed E N G I N E E R I N G LICENCE APPLIED We simply neglect/ignore/hide the time variability of all the functions and mask with a new formulation Comparative Intelligence
  • 41. Ic = I Ei - E[a.s ( 1 + m + p + mp ) ] I E N G I N E E R I N G LICENCE APPLIED Combining similar complex o p e r a t o r s f o r t h e e a s e o f manipulation and explanation
  • 42. Finally, we have something meeting all our practical bounds and limiters that we can work with in practice Ic = k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P + M + P.M ) ] System Constants Ic ~ k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P.M ) ] For P.M >> (P + M) S h u f f l i n g A N ENTROPIC LEAP This resemble the Shannon-Hartley theorem in Information Theory
  • 43. Don’t Panic - we are about to focus on the implications Ic ~ k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P.M ) ] S h u f f l i n g A N ENTROPIC LEAP This resemble the Shannon-Hartley theorem in Information Theory
  • 44. A P R I M A R Y IMPLICATION We are not racing toward a singularity, and machines are not taking over anytime soon as people have previously projected/feared Increasing S. P. M. A by a factor of 1000 would only see intelligence grow 10 fold due to the logarithmic nature of intelligence !
  • 45. EXPONENTIAL V logarithmic Estimated Entropic Growth of AI capabilities
  • 46. A I A N D T H E F U T U R E ? Humanity remains the biggest threat Accelerating technological revolution Dystopian possibilities still haunt humans Improves every sphere of human endeavour Transforms the nature of work & employment Revolutionises product design and production AI/QAI decodes Genomic - Protein comms riddle ++++ Magnifies the kill rate of most weapons systems!
  • 47. Humans evolved for millennia to attain a nominal stasis - but AI is exponential - so more equivalences and ‘supremums’ are expected I N e v i tA b l e -100M -1M 1940 1990 2040 -103 -106 -109 -1012 -1015 -1018 FLOPS Human intelligence has now ‘ fl at-lined’ AI has only recently reached a visibly exponential phase Notice this is a Computing Operations estimate and not an intelligence score
  • 48. A r t i f i c i a l G e n e r a l I n t e l l i g e n c e ( A G I ) The progression of AI is most likely going to mirror history of modern computing with a gradual migration from ‘one task capability/expertise’ to a ‘multi-capability/expertise’ expanding to general purpose realisations. For computing it took ~30years, but for AI it may well be shorter as AI is now a member of the workforce including the analysis and design teams! “Technology influences and accelerates the creation of ever more technology”
  • 49. Human-AI voice interactions now the norm and getting better by the day! E m e r g E n T P e r s o n a l i t y
  • 50. C r i t i c a l T h i n k i n g Life introduces physical order into a system Intelligence transforms information in systems Both introduce Positive Entropy into systems Ergo; Life and Intelligence are strongly related “Life in fl uences/changes its supporting environment” “Intelligence modulates/changes the processes of life”
  • 51. H Y P O T H E S I S C O N C AT E N AT E D This is increasingly supported by a growing body of biological evidence Life => an emergent property of Complexity Intelligence => an emergent property of Life Sentience => an emergent property of Intelligence Complexity => an emergent property of Clustering in Chaos Complexity & Chaos => the ground state of our non-linear universe
  • 52. T hinkin g the right way People fear, & complain, overlook the big gains V i v e L a d i f f e r e n c e
  • 53. G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 2 Considered to be impossible by philosophers I B M W a t s o n
  • 54. G A M E C H A N G E R 2 0 1 4 Considered to be impossible by philosophers
  • 55. Exponential E d u c a t i o n Huma n 5 - 2 0k operations/ li fetime Netw or ked AI/ Robots >20k opera tions/day
  • 56. Exponential C a pa b i l i t i e s “AI~200M Proteins decoded in 3 months” “Humans <100 decodes folds in decades” Protein folding is the key to complex life and blights such as cancer…
  • 57. Exemplar N e w C r e a t i v i t y
  • 58. Exemplar N e w C r e a t i v i t y Criticism It is just copying and aping what human composers have done ! Retort 1 You mean exactly like human composers do ? Retort 2 AI has only just got into this game that humans have be at for well over 3M years
  • 59. W H A T W E D o K N O W MASS Only By Poor M a n a g e m e n t “Every developed and developing nation is short of people - the UK has over 500k vacancies that are impacting the GDP” “The biggest challenge is transformation - living in the past will see companies fail”
  • 60. Management C h a l l e n g e Getting the right aptitude, skill set, and experience into the right job and support human and machine with a continual training programme Technology driven change is accelerating, and it isn’t going away fall behind and you lose your edge, and failure follows!
  • 61. L e a d e r s h i p C h a l l e n g e The ‘engineering’ of symbiotic teams that are innovative, flexible, and adaptable - a simple minded ‘MBA focus’ on efficiency & the bottom-line will kill the company “Innovation & the new has to be a constant priority”
  • 62. Modern societies cannot function without AI DePendancy Here Today It is core to health, wealth and care It is prime in achieving sustainability and equitable living standards for ~ 8Bn people The next big leaps will occur as AI is networked, integrated into robotics, and advanced sensory systems realising sentience
  • 63. Look up Uncanny Valley https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is- the-uncanny-valley-4846247 https://www.simplypsychology.org/uncanny-valley.html F e at u r e s a n d Forms To Come
  • 64. F e at u r e s a n d Forms To Come Look up Uncanny Valley https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is- the-uncanny-valley-4846247 https://www.simplypsychology.org/uncanny-valley.html
  • 65. E m e r g e n t N e t w o r k S “Things that think want to link” And “Thinks that link want to think”
  • 66. ADVICE: Stop Worrying START: Engaging/Using/Exploring ASAP Golden Rule: If a technology or a feature does not add value to, or, improve your life - then ditch it and try something else!