Klingbeil, R., 2011. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the Middle East: Challenges to Water Management. Presentation at the International Workshop on Hydrology: Nature & Engineering and the World Water Day celebration. 20-22 March 2011, Sultan Qaboos University (SQU), Muscat, Oman.

1. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change
in the Middle East:
Challenges to Water Management
Muscat, Oman Ralf Klingbeil
20-22 March 2011 Regional Advisor Environment & Water

2. Opening Quotes
• “The Middle East ran out of water in the 1970s.”
Anthony (Tony) Allan
Stockholm World Water Prize Laureate, 2008
• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water
catastrophe.”
• “Any delay in a serious response to the water
challenge corresponds to mass suicide.
The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab doors,
right now.”
Najib Saab, Secretary General AFED on 12 June 2010
Winner of the UAE Zayed International Prize for the Environment 2011
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 2

3. Iraq – Displacement due to Drought
IOM, July 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 3

4. Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010
IOM, July 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 4

5. Outline
• UN ESCWA: A UN Regional Commission
• Water - Challenges
• Scarcity
– Resources
– Competition
– Governance
• Climate Change in the Region
– Understanding Impacts
– Making Adaptation Work
• ESCWA’s work: Climate Change and Water
• Where Shall We Go From Here?
How Bleak is the Future?
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 5

6. UN ESCWA and the
Regional Dimension in the UN
ECE
1947
ESCWA
ECLAC 1973
1948
ECA ESCAP
1958 1947
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7. UN ESCWA
• 14 Member Countries
• Bahrain
• Egypt
• Iraq
• Jordan
• Kuwait
• Lebanon
• Qatar
• Oman
• Palestine
• Saudi Arabia
• Sudan
• Syrian Arab Republic
• United Arab Emirates
• Yemen
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8. Water - Challenges
• Status and Trends
• Availability vs. Use and Demand
• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable
• Population Growth and Agriculture
• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources
• Virtual Water
• Water Imports and Transfers
• Desalination
• Transboundary Water and Aquifers
• ... and Climate Change
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9. Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources
per Capita. by Region
FAO AQUASTST, WB 2007
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 9

10. Percent of Total Renewable Water
Resources Withdrawn, by Region
FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 2007
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11. Total Renewable Water per Person
in ESCWA Region
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
ESCWA, 2009
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12. Total Actual Renewable Water
Resources per Capita in MENA
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
FAO AQUASTAT, WB 2007
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 12

13. High Rate of Population Growth
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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14. Renewable - Non-Renewable
Groundwater
Renewable groundwater resources
Non-renewable groundwater
Non ground water resources
ESCWA, 2009
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 14

15. Scarcity
Resources, Competition and
Governance
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16. Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia
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17. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
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FAO AQUASTAT, 2008

18. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per
Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)
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19. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal
aquifers (WaterWatch, 2006)
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20. Sustainability and
Non-Renewable Groundwater
• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits
• No clear “Exit Strategy”,
no replacement for non-renewable water resource
we are here, but
where are we
going next?
after
Al Zubari, 2010
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21. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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22. Perverse Incentives for Excess Irrigation
WB, 2007
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23. Alternative Future Water Policy Options
Essentially 3 future policy options available:
• Population Policy change –
high political risk, long term impact, adopted
economic development model
• Agricultural Policy change –
medium political risk, medium term impact
• Water Policy change –
lower political risk, short term impact
• Combination of two or three of the above
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24. Sources of Water and Use
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 24

25. Climate Change and Water
in the Region
Understanding Impacts
Making Adaptation Work
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 25

26. Potential Impacts
• Coupled with excessive population growth and
rising living standards,
climate change will exacerbate water scarcity
conditions across the Arab world.
• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation
coupled with rising temperatures will reduce
water availability.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 26

27. Potential Impacts
• Changes in water availability
– Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity
– Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses
• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions
– Sewage systems, storm runoff
• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk
of closure of plant intake
– Improve intake procedures
– Increase storage and transfer capacity
• Infrastructure failures
– Higher flooding intensities, frequencies
– Higher temperatures,
• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures
– Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.
• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges
– Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes
– Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning
of alternatives, before springs cease
• Seawater level rise
– Increasing groundwater salinisation
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 27

28. Change in Precipitation
Hue shows change in mm/y.
Saturation / intensity shows the
change as percentage of 2005
PPTN.
Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 28

29. Change in Length of Dry Season
Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 29

30. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 30

31. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 31

32. Main Messages 1/2
• Water is everybody’s business.
• Goal of many countries:
National water strategy for water security,
enough water for all demands.
• Countries in the region largely unable to sustain
water needs only from within national boundaries.
• All countries are already net water importers
through food imports – virtual water.
• Largest water consumer is agriculture, although
rarely economically viable nor socially necessary.
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33. Main Messages 2/2
• Policy changes regarding water consumption & protection
– Water sector,
– agriculture sector, and
– population policies.
• Ground- & surface water resources often transboundary
– willingness to cooperate between neighbouring countries,
– equitable sharing of benefits from a common resource.
• Without cooperation,
without innovative integration of
– economic tools,
– social justice and
– environmentally sustainable approaches,
without regional and bilateral agreements on water, the
region may actually slowly move towards a mass suicide.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 33

34. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change
in the Middle East:
Challenges to Water Management
Muscat, Oman Ralf Klingbeil
20-22 March 2011 Regional Advisor Environment & Water