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- 1. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? Scope 1 Introduction 2 Global State of Water as a Resource 3 Factors Affecting Distribution of Water 4 Ongoing Distribution/Sharing Conflicts 5 Situation in Sub-continent 6 Measures Towards Conflict Resolution 7 Analysis and Recommendations 8 Conclusion Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 1 / 1321 / 132
- 2. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 2 / 132
- 3. Ban Ki-moon UN Secretary General First Asia-Pacific Water Summit, Beppu Japan, Dec 2007 ”Water scarcity threatens economic and social gains and is a potential fuel for wars and conflicts” Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 3 / 132 Ban Ki-moon
- 4. Premise Freshwater is a necessity Supply is fluctuating Demand is increasing Humans and nations are competing to secure this limited resource Result: potential conflict Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 4 / 132
- 5. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? Wg Cdr Salman Aslam Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 5 / 132
- 6. Sequence 1 Introduction 2 Issues 3 Solutions 4 Wrap-up Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 6 / 132
- 7. Sequence : detailed 1 Introduction Terminology Statistics 2 Issues Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political 3 Solutions Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political 4 Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 7 / 132
- 8. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Water Views Prof Andras Szollosi-Nagy Rector, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education Former Director, Division of Water, UNESCO If humanity can avoid nuclear holocaust in the 21st century, then water is going to be the most important issue to deal with. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 8 / 132
- 9. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Interaction Conflict A serious disagreement or argument, typically a protracted one. 1 1 http://www.oxforddictionaries.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 9 / 132
- 10. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Hydroelectric Power Run-of-the-river A type of hydro-electric generation whereby little or no water storage is provided. 1 1 http://www.reservoircapitalcorp.com/s/WhatIsRunOfRiver.asp Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 10 / 132
- 11. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water River Basin The area of land that contributes water to a stream or river is called a watershed, river/drainage/catchment basin. 1 1 http://www.kidsgeo.com/geology-for-kids/0076-drainage-basins-watersheds.php 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage basin Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 11 / 132 Latoria River drainage basin shaded in light green, Romania. 2
- 12. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water Wetland Land consisting of marshes or swamps. 1 Riparian Something related to or situated on the banks of a river. 1 1 http://www.oxforddictionaries.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 12 / 132
- 13. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water Pakistan, India and the Indus River India: upper riparian state Pakistan: lower riparian state Punjab, Sindh and the Indus River Punjab: upper riparian province Sindh: lower riparian province Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 13 / 132
- 14. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water Renewable resource A resource which is replaced naturally and can be used again. 1 In this sense, water is a renewable resource. 1 http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable resource Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 14 / 132
- 15. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water Freshwater Water having a low salt concentration - usually less than 1%. 1 1 http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/exhibits/biomes/freshwater.php Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 15 / 132
- 16. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water Per capita water resources per year The amount of water available to an individual for a year. For instance, for Pakistan in 2011, the per capita water resources per year are 247 km3 176 million = 247,000 million m3 176 million = 1, 400 m3 per capita per year 1 2 1 Peter H Gleick et al. (2014). The World’s Water : The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources. Vol. 8. Island Press 2 World Bank, United States Census Bureau. url: http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 16 / 132
- 17. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water Related to per capita water resources per year are two terms: Moderate to severe stress Less than 1700 m3 water per capita per year Water scarce Less than 1000 m3 water per capita per year Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 17 / 132
- 18. Per Capita Water Resources per Year Global View (2008) Total renewable water resources in m3 per capita per year. 1 2 1 The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2010). Total Renewable Water Resources per Capita by Country. url: http://chartsbin.com/view/1470 2 GreenFacts (2005). Water Availability Information for Pakistan. url: http://www.greenfacts.org/en/water-resources/figtableboxes/aquastat133.htm Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 18 / 132
- 19. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water and Geology Aquifer An underground layer of water-bearing rock. 1 1 National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 19 / 132 Aquifer.
- 20. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water and Geology Water Table The top of the water level in an aquifer. 1 1 National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 20 / 132 Water Table.
- 21. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to Water and Geology Groundwater Groundwater is the water that seeps into the earth and is stored in aquifers. 1 There is 100 times more water in the ground than is in all the world’s rivers and lakes2 2 US Geological Survey, Water Science School. Earth’s Water: Groundwater. url: http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgw.html 1 http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/freshwater/groundwater/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 21 / 132
- 22. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Definitions Related to the Environment Green-house Effect The trapping of the sun’s warmth in a planet’s lower atmosphere. 1 1 http://www.oxforddictionaries.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 22 / 132
- 23. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Units Volume and Flow Rate Volume 1 MAF (1 million acre foot) = 1 million acres × 1 foot = 1 million × 66 ft × 660 ft × 1 foot = 43,560 million ft3 ≈ 1.2 km3 Flow Rate 1 cusec = 1 ft3 /sec = 28 litres/sec = 0.028 m3 /sec Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 23 / 132
- 24. Process Water Cycle Water Cycle. All units are in cubic km. 1 1 http://www.elic.ucl.ac.be/textbook/chapter2 node9.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 24 / 132
- 25. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Distribution of Water Nature’s Division Oceans: 97% Fresh water: 3% Surface water: 1% Ground water: 22% Frozen: 77% Water distribution. 1 1 http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophysics/h2o1.htm Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 25 / 132
- 26. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Statistics Distribution of Freshwater Our Division 70 to 80%: agriculture 10 to 20%: industry 10%: households Global sum of all withdrawals. 1 1 http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water use/index.stm Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 26 / 132
- 27. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Done with an introduction. Now, let’s look at the issues. 1 http://www.toonpool.com/cartoons/Hoping for water 144156 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 27 / 132 Hoping for Water. 1
- 28. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Supply and Demand Trends During the last half century, per capita resources have fallen S. Asia: 40% to 50% Africa: 60% to 80% Developing countries, increasing demand Developed countries, decreasing demand 1 www.capsweb.org Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 28 / 132 More demand, less water. 1
- 29. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Supply and Demand Trends Climate change will increase water resources Shifts in rainfall will make matters worse for water stressed countries 1 www.capsweb.org Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 29 / 132 More demand, less water. 1
- 30. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Supply and Demand Rising Population and Growing Cities World population: 2x to 4x Richer people need more water Over half of the world’s population live in cities 1 www.forbes.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 30 / 132 Growing cities. 1
- 31. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Supply and Demand Agriculture Global water use is dominated by agriculture Irrigation can easily double crop yields Just 18% of cropland is irrigated, but it produces 40% of the world’s food 1 oldwww.morningside.edu Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 31 / 132 Agriculture. 1
- 32. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Supply and Demand Agriculture: Problems Wasteful practices Thirsty crops Destruction of the soil, especially through salinization Pollution of surface and groundwater by fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides 1 kaleandeggs.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 32 / 132 Spraying pesticides. 1
- 33. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Supply and Demand Agriculture Agricultural products account for nearly 70 to 80% of global water use In the world as a whole, rice is the staple carbohydrate Saving of over 3 million litres of water per tonne of growing potatoes as compared to rice Rice 21% of world water used To grow one tonne: 3400 m3 Potatoes 1% of world water used To grow one tonne: 250 m3 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 33 / 132
- 34. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Supply and Demand Industry Consumes 10% to 20% of global water use Developed countries, declining industrial water use Developing countries, increasing industrial water use 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 34 / 132 Industry. 1
- 35. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Supply and Demand Summary Rise in global demand for water shows no sign of abating Agriculture is the prime user Urbanization is demanding more Industrial demand is in check in most developing countries Industrial demand is growing in many parts of the developing world Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 35 / 132
- 36. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Poverty Water Problems Migrants heading for the cities Shanty towns foci for disease and desperation No piped connections Poverty and Water. 1 1 amoberg1.wordpress.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 36 / 132
- 37. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Water Trading Real vs Virtual Real water: bottled water Drop in the ocean compared with ”virtual water” Virtual water is water needed to grow crops and fodder, for animals to drink, and food processing 1 www.waterdeva.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 37 / 132 Virtual Water Trading. 1
- 38. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Water Trading Implications of Virtual Water Trading for National Security Implications are important for national security Countries in Western Europe, Japan, Korea and the Middle East are dependent on virtual water imports 1 www.waterdeva.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 38 / 132 Virtual Water Trading. 1
- 39. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Terrorism Water Supply Disruption Disruption or poisoning of water supplies as a weapon WWI, 1915, German troops poisoned wells as they retreated from Windhoek, Namibia WWII, 1945, German troops blew up a dyke in Holland WWII, British dam buster aircraft attacked the German dams 1 thinkprogress.org Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 39 / 132 Water Terrorism. 1
- 40. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Problems General Fragmented responsibilities Ineffective management Overlapping interests and inter-institutional rivalry Private profit-making 1 apievangelist.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 40 / 132 Bad governance characteristics. 1
- 41. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Problems General Lack of coordination between upstream and downstream users Inappropriate political interference Poor legal structures Lack of enforcement mechanisms Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 41 / 132 Bad governance characteristics.
- 42. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Problems General Historical water rights inhibiting fairer water distribution Lack of public or stakeholder involvement Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 42 / 132 Bad governance characteristics.
- 43. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Problems Communist Countries Over-centralization Underfunding Lack of performance incentives and jobs for life for Party members Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 43 / 132 Bad governance characteristics.
- 44. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Problems Laissez-faire Capitalist Countries Too much fragmentation among institutions Excessive profit motive Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 44 / 132 Bad governance characteristics.
- 45. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Corruption Example Poor governance and institutional corruption Added to woes of people Example is Ethiopia 1 www.bridgehousecollege.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 45 / 132 Corruption. 1
- 46. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Dams and Diversions Overview Fundamental tools of water engineering Create and enhance water resources Lifeblood of civilization 1 www.dawn.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 46 / 132 Tarbela Dam. 1
- 47. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Dams and Diversions Uses There are more than 45,000 large dams One Half: Irrigated agriculture One third: Principally for hydropower One-eight: Public water supply Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 47 / 132 Tarbela Dam.
- 48. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Dams and Diversions Disadvantages Destruction of the environment, especially endangered ecosystems Displacement of people Destruction of traditional livelihoods Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 48 / 132 Tarbela Dam.
- 49. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Dams and Diversions Disadvantages Riparian rights (Punjab vs Sindh) Serious impact on rivers and wildlife Withhold sediment and nutrients Block migratory fish Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 49 / 132 Tarbela Dam.
- 50. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Dams and Diversions Disadvantages Decimate fish life Allow temperatures to rise and cause deoxygenation of the water Dam failure, 1975 Banqiao Dam, 1979 Machchhu Dam 1 http://bigdreamz.in/savemykerala/site/?articles=dam-disasters Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 50 / 132 Banqiao Dam failure. 1
- 51. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Privatization Impetus 1948: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1980s: Reagan and Thatcher 1995: World Trade Organization (WTO) 1 h20privatization.blogspot.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 51 / 132 Privatizing water. 1
- 52. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Privatization Advantages Funding for ageing and inefficient infrastructure Better managers Competition Reduction in prices Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 52 / 132 Privatizing water.
- 53. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Privatization Disadvantages The model does not fit water as well as most commodities Too important to be placed in the private sector Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 53 / 132 Privatizing water.
- 54. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Ecosystems Destruction Twentieth century development ignored link between landscape and water resources 1 www.biodiversityofindia.org Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 54 / 132 Wetlands, Moscow Russia. 1
- 55. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Ecosystems Destruction Draining of wetlands Destruction of forests Intensive agriculture Herbicides and pesticides Large-scale engineering of landscape 1 www.biodiversityofindia.org Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 55 / 132 Wetlands, Moscow Russia. 1
- 56. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Ecosystems Destruction Overfishing Destruction of aquatic environments River engineering 1 jmsc.hku.hk Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 56 / 132 Overfishing. 1
- 57. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Ecosystems Irrigation and Salination Irrigation has caused salination of soil and water since ancient times Egypt, after completion of Aswan Dam Desert reclaimed for agriculture Then lost to salinization 1 www.knowledgebank.irri.org Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 57 / 132 Salinity. 1
- 58. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pollution and Disease Neglect During the twentieth century, population grew three-fold Water use increased six-fold Water treatment failed to keep pace 1 www.enciclopediapr.org Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 58 / 132 Water Pollution. 1
- 59. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pollution and Disease Agriculture In developed countries, agriculture taking over from industry as the greatest source of water pollution Spraying pesticides, herbicides and fertilizer. 1 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green Revolution Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 59 / 132
- 60. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pollution and Disease Agriculture: Green Revolution Green Revolution (also in Pakistan) 2 Between the 1940s and the late 1960s R&D and technology transfer initiatives Widespread pollution Spraying pesticides, herbicides and fertilizer. 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green Revolution 2 Akmal Hussain (2012). “The Green Revolution”. In: The Oxford Companion to Pakistani History. Ed. by Ayesha Jalal. Oxford University Press, Karachi. url: www.akmalhussain.net/Publish%20Work/data/3.pdf Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 60 / 132
- 61. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pollution and Disease Agriculture: Nitrates and Disease Nitrates from agricultural fertilizers Cancer of brain and central nervous system Spraying pesticides, herbicides and fertilizer. 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 61 / 132
- 62. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Global Warming Temperature Dependence Global water resources are highly sensitive to temperatures Reasons Evaporation Effects on wind patterns Convection Rainfall distribution 1 benthamsciencepublishers.wordpress.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 62 / 132 Global Warming. 1
- 63. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Global Warming Slide Broad agreement among all major Global Climate Models Warming is likely to continue 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 63 / 132 Global Warming. 1
- 64. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Global Warming Causes of Climate Change Natural causes Solar activity Volcanic activity Human activities 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 64 / 132 Global Warming. 1
- 65. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Global Warming Greenhouse Gases Methane Nitrous oxide Water vapor (most important) 1 www.architecture.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 65 / 132 Greenhouse Effect. 1
- 66. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Global Warming Predicted Changes Average annual water resources Seasonal changes Shift from snow to rain Tropical storms and hurricanes Impact on groundwater Sea level rise Storm surge floods Sea ice and sea level rise Falling lake levels 1 onmilwaukee.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 66 / 132 Storm. 1
- 67. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Water Conflict Most Apparent The most obvious form of conflict related to water Around the world 1 www.aljazeera.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 67 / 132 Fighting in Sudan over water. 1
- 68. Water Conflicts in Recorded History From 3000 BC till Present A total of 343 water conflicts have been recorded all over the world between 3000BC and 2014. 1 1 Pacific Institute. Water Conflict Chronology Map. url: http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 68 / 132
- 69. River Basins Distribution Around the World The 25 major river basins of the world 1 out of a total of 260. 2 1 GRID-Arendal. Main Worlds River Basins. url: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3226.aspx 2 Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, Foster Cooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for- water-bureau-in-washington/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 69 / 132
- 70. River Basins Asia Asian water basins. 1 2 1 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) (2012). A Strategy and Results Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 3 2 World Resources SIM Center (2010). Asian River Basins. url: http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/asian-river-basins Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 70 / 132
- 71. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Australia Murder Over Water Restrictions Sydney, 2007 66-year-old watering the front lawn of his house Watering allowed only two days a week Incident happened on allowed day 36-year old gets into dispute and kills older man 1 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-01/man-charged-with-murder-after-lawn-watering-dispute/712826 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 71 / 132 Debate about water restrictions turn deadly. 1
- 72. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political North America Violent Protests in Canada Canada, 2013 Elsipogtog First Nation Protest over the impacts to local water resources from fracking operations Several injuries were reported and six police cars burned 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elsipogtog First Nation Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 72 / 132 Protests against fracking. 1
- 73. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political South America Amazon River Basin Brazil’s controversial $13 billion Belo Monte dam River Xingu, tributary of Amazon River Indigenous groups fear harm to their way of life Environmentalists warn of deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions and irreparable damage to the ecosystem. 1 http://blogs.nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/deforestation/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 73 / 132 Amazon River Basin. 1
- 74. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Europe Danube River Basin Gabkovo Nagymaros Dams on Danube Conflict between Hungary and Slovakia Hungary tried to terminate project on economic and environmental grounds International Court of Justice intervenes Not resolved 1 http://www.slovakia.org/history-gabcikovo.htm Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 74 / 132 Danube River Basin. 1
- 75. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Africa Nile River Basin Sudan Civil War from 1983 to 2005 Access to key resources, mainly water 1 http://wwf.panda.org/about our earth/about freshwater/rivers/nile/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 75 / 132 Nile Basin. 1
- 76. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Middle East Jordan River Basin Point of contention between Israel and neighbors Israel fought Six-Day War of 1967 in large part to secure water supplies Pre-empt plans by Syria and Jordan to dam Yarmouk River 1 http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2010/08/01/jesus baptism river may be too toxic for modern baptisms/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 76 / 132 Jordan River Valley conflict. 1
- 77. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan Statistics: Area 1 Total: 796,095 km2 36th largest in the world Land: 770,880 km2 ≈ 3 4 mill. km2 Water: 25,220 km2 ≈ 1 40 mill. km2 30:1, land:water 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 77 / 132 Area comparison of Pakistan with eastern United States. 1
- 78. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan Rivers Pakistan and West India Six major rivers Pakistan Indus, Jhelum, Chenab India Ravi, Sutlej, Beas 1 http://www.opinion-maker.org/2010/08/pakistan-say-no-to-floods/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 78 / 132 Pakistan: Rivers. 1
- 79. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan Indus River Origin: Tibet Length: 3200 Km Discharge rate: 6,600 m3 /sec 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html 2 http://earth.imagico.de/large.php?site=indus2 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 79 / 132 Valley of the Indus River between Nanga Parbat on the right and the Karakoram Mountains at the horizon. 2
- 80. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan Jhelum River Origin: Jammu and Kashmir Length: 725 Km 1 Discharge rate: 222 m3 /sec Verinag Spring in Jammu and Kashmir is believed to be the chief source. 2 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum River 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verinag Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 80 / 132
- 81. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan Chenab River Origin: Himachal Pradesh, India Length: 960 Km 1 Discharge rate: 800 m3 /sec 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab River 2 https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2443/3762338923 a3770387d5 z.jpg Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 81 / 132 Formed from the confluence of Chandra and Bhaga Rivers, Himachal Pradesh. 2
- 82. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan Tarbela Dam (Topi, KPK) Details 1 Construction: 1968-1977 River: Indus Type: Storage Storage: 14.3 km3 Discharge (main): 18,406 m3 /s Discharge (aux): 24,070 m3 /s Capacity: 3478 MW 1 Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2002). Tarbela Dam. url: http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/pgeneration-dam-tarbela.html 2 http://kbdam.blogspot.com/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 82 / 132 Location of Tarbela Dam. 2
- 83. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan Mangla Dam, (Mangla, Azad Kashmir) Details 1 Construction: 1961-1967 River: Jhelum Type: Storage Storage: 9 km3 Discharge (main): 28,000 m3 /s Discharge (emerg.): 6,500 m3 /s Capacity: 1000 MW 1 Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2010). Mangla Dam. url: http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-dams-mangla.html 2 http://kbdam.blogspot.com/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 83 / 132 Location of Mangla Dam. 2
- 84. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Statistics: GDP in millions, 2013 1 1 US: $16,720 (3.4%) 2 EU: $15,850 (3.6%) 3 China: $13,390 (4.3%) 4 India: $4,990 (11.5%) 5 Japan: $4,729 (12.1%) 6 Germany: $3,227 (17.8%) 7 Russia: $2,553 (22.5%) ... 27 Pakistan: $574 (100%) 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 84 / 132
- 85. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Statistics: Debt and Population 1 Public debt as % of GDP (2013) Pakistan: 54.6 (57th descending order) India: 51.8 (63rd descending order) Population growth rate (2014) Pakistan: 1.49% (84th in descending order) India: 1.25% (94th in descending order) 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 85 / 132
- 86. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Statistics: Average rainfall/year, 2000-2014 Highest: 3240 mm (Colombia) Average: 1157 mm Lowest: 51 mm (Egypt) India: 1083 mm (85th) Pakistan: 494 mm (143rd) 1 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM 2 Pakistan Meteorological Department Climate Data Processing Center (CDPC). Pakistan Mean Rainfall, 1971-2000. url: http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/Pakistan_mean_rainfall.pdf Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 86 / 132 62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E 62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E 24° N 26° N 28° N 30° N 32° N 34° N 36° N 24° N 26° N 28° N 30° N 32° N 34° N 36° N Astore Bunji Ghari Dupatta Gilgit Gupis Kotli Muzaffarabad Skardu Barkhan Dalbandin Kalat Khuzdar Panjgur Quetta Zhob Balakot Cherat Chilas Chitral Dir Drosh Kakul Parachinar Saidu Sharif Murree Hill Station Jiwani Lasbella OrmaraPasni Sibi D.I.Khan Kohat Peshawar Rafiqui Risalpur Bahawalnagar Bhawalpur Faisalabad Islamabad Jhelum Khanpur Lahore Mianwali Multan Sargodha Sialkot Badin Chhor Hyderabad Jacobabad Karachi Larkana Moenjodaro Nawabshah Padidan Rohri Plain Station A R A B I A N S E A C H I N A *(Based on 1971-2000) I R A N ANNUALMean* Rainfall (mm) 0 mm 200 mm 400 mm 600 mm 800 mm 1000 mm 1200 mm 1400 mm 1600 mm 1800 mm CDPC, Pakistan M eteorological Department Pakistan mean annual rainfall from 1971 to 2000 is 240 mm. 2
- 87. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Statistics: Renewable water resources 1 2 Total (2011) Pakistan: 247 km3 India: 1911 km3 Per capita per year Pakistan: 1,038 m3 (2008) India: 613 m3 (2010) 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html 2 Central Intelligence Agency (2014a). The World Fact Book, India. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 87 / 132
- 88. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Statistics: Dams 1 1 China: 23,842 2 USA: 9,265 3 India: 5,102 ... 30 Pakistan: 154 Size 1:4 Dams 1:33 1 http://www.icold-cigb.org/gb/world register/general synthesis.asp?IDA=206 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of rivers of Pakistan Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 88 / 132 Pakistan, major dams and barrages. 2
- 89. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Baglihar Dam Details 1 Location: Jammu and Kashmir Construction: 1999-2008 River: Chenab Type: Run-of-the-river Capacity: 900 MW 1 Prof. Raymond Lafitte (2007). Baglihar Hydroelectric Plant, Expert Determination. World Bank. url: http://water.worldbank.org/publications/indus-waters-treaty-articles-and-annexures-baglihar- decision-expert-determination 2 Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, Foster Cooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for- water-bureau-in-washington/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 89 / 132 Location of Baglihar Dam. 2
- 90. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Baglihar Dam: Dispute CIA World Fact Book mentions this as a transnational dispute 1 1999: Pakistan claimed violation of Indus Water Treaty 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baglihar Dam Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 90 / 132 Baglihar Dam. 2
- 91. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Baglihar Dam: Ruling by Neutral Expert 2005: Pakistan asked World Bank for neutral expert (NE) 1 2007: NE upheld some of Pakistan’s objections Reduction of pond capacity Reduction of dam height 1 Usman Ahmad. The Inventory of Conflict & Environment (ICE), American University, Washington DC. url: http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/baglihar.htm 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baglihar Dam Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 91 / 132 Baglihar Dam. 2
- 92. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Baglihar Dam: Ruling by Neutral Expert Non-gated control of spillway rejected India allowed storage of up to 26,000 acre feet to flush sediments 1 Pakistan government expressed disappointment Both governments have agreed to abide by the final verdict 1 Sardar Muhammad Tariq (2010). Pakistan-India Relations, Implementation of Indus Water Treaty, A Pakistani Narrative. Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency. url: http://www.pildat.org/Publications/publication/FP/PakistanIndiaRelations-ImplementationofIndus- WaterTreaty-APakistaniNarrative.pdf 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baglihar Dam Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 92 / 132 Baglihar Dam. 2
- 93. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Kishanganga Dam Details 1 Location: Jammu and Kashmir, India Start: 2007-2016 (exp) River: Kishanganga (Neelum) Type: Run-of-the-river Capacity: 330 MW 1 Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, Foster Cooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for- water-bureau-in-washington/ 2 http://pak-today.blogspot.com/2013/02/kishanganga.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 93 / 132 Location of Kishanganga Dam. 2
- 94. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Kishanganga Dam: Dispute Diversion of water to India Diverted water returned to Pakistan Before return, downstream Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Plant affected 1 http://tribune.com.pk/story/648986/kishanganga-project-victory-claims-cloud-final-arbitration-award/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 94 / 132 Diversion of water for Kishanganga Dam. 1
- 95. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs India Kishanganga Dam: Ruling by International Court of Arbitration (ICA) 2011: Pakistan protest Construction halted 2013: India allowed to build India to maintain 9 m3 /second (cumecs) of water 1 http://tribune.com.pk/story/648986/kishanganga-project-victory-claims-cloud-final-arbitration-award/ Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 95 / 132 Diversion of water for Kishanganga Dam. 1
- 96. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Afghanistan Storing Water on the Kabul River: India’s Intervention India plans to assist Afghanistan with water projects on Kabul River 13 dams planned Total water storage capacity of 4.7 MAF 25% more than that of Mangla Dam 1 1 http://www.dawn.com/news/673055/sharing-water-resources-with-afghanistan 1 pakhto-pakhtun.blogspot.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 96 / 132 Kabul River. 2
- 97. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Afghanistan Storing Water on the Kabul River: Pros and Cons Advantages Flood control Electricity generation Irrigated land of 12,000 acres will increase by 14,000 acres Disadvantage: impact Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 97 / 132 Kabul River.
- 98. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Afghanistan Storing Water on the Kabul River: Effect on Pakistan 17 MAF water enters Pakistan through the Kabul River every year Supply will decrease by 16% to 17% 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 98 / 132 Kabul River.
- 99. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Pakistan Internal Problems High water losses Drainage problems Water-logging Salinity Mineralization of ground water 1 www.pakistankakhudahafiz.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 99 / 132 Pakistan. 1
- 100. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Pakistan Internal Problems Inter-provincial disputes Indus water apportionment Kalabagh Dam Dramatic fall in water availability (per capita per year) 1947: 5,000 m3 current: under 1,000 m3 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 100 / 132 Pakistan.
- 101. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Pakistan Internal Problems Dependence on Indus Basin Over-exploitation of groundwater Deteriorating quality of the Indus water supply Salinity: some 12 million tons of salt added to the Indus basin each year 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 101 / 132 Pakistan.
- 102. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Pakistan Internal Problems Pollution of surface and groundwater Rising water levels, leading to the danger of floods Neglect of maintenance 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 102 / 132 Pakistan.
- 103. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Pakistan Internal Problems Water wasted through seepages and lack of storage/utilization infrastructure 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 103 / 132 Pakistan.
- 104. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Pakistan Internal Disputes Punjab vs Sindh before partition 1945, British imposed solution Remained in force till 1970 Then, disputes arose again 1 www.gmat.com.pk Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 104 / 132 Pakistan. 1
- 105. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Pakistan vs Pakistan Internal Disputes Numerous commissions failed Indus Water Apportionment Accord, 1991 Waters fixed for each province Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 105 / 132 Pakistan.
- 106. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political We’ve looked at the issues. Now, let’s look at some solutions. 1 http://www.conflicts.indiawaterportal.org/?q=node/31 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 106 / 132 Different solutions. 1
- 107. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Cutting Demand Slide Leakage reduction Metering supplies Recycling Water-saving technology Media campaigns Efficient irrigation Changing diets and lifestyles Containing population growth 1 www.kpbs.org Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 107 / 132 Efficient irrigation. 1
- 108. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Increasing Supplies Slide New sources of surface and ground water Exploiting cryosphere (frozen part of Earth) Rainwater harvesting Harvesting fog and dew Water beyond Earth Desalination 1 Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 108 / 132 Desalination plant in Spain. 1
- 109. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Management Viewpoints Maintain physical water resources Maintain basin ecosystems Sustain a balance between social and physical components 1 www.nonprofitlawblog.com Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 109 / 132 Good Governance. 1
- 110. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Law Viewpoints Absolute territorial sovereignty Absolute territorial integrity Limited territorial sovereignty (equitable utilization), Helsinki Rules Berlin Rules include the environment Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 110 / 132 Good Governance.
- 111. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Finance Responsibility World Bank focusing on projects with sound environmental and social foundations Refused to fund Indian sponsored hydropower scheme in Nepal in the 1990s Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 111 / 132 Good Governance.
- 112. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Aid Pros and Cons UN encourages developed nations to contribute 0.7% of GDP to poor nations In reality, 0.3 to 0.4% Economists divided on efficacy Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 112 / 132 Good Governance.
- 113. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Aid Pros and Cons $1 trillion aid to Africa in last 60 years People worse off Vicious cycle of dependency, corruption, distortion in the markets Some argue that necessary now, even if inefficient Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 113 / 132 Good Governance.
- 114. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Monitoring and Data Management Equipment Monitoring and communication heart of modern water management Rain and river gauges Weather radar Meterological satellites 1 www.thenational.ae Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 114 / 132 Cutting water use in UAE farm. 1
- 115. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Monitoring and Data Management Software Tools One of the great advances of last 50 years Establishment of international databases 1 www.meteoshop.cz Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 115 / 132 Visualizing weather data. 1
- 116. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Prediction and Risk Assessment Overview Real-time forecasting Improving risk assessment 1 www2.ucar.edu Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 116 / 132 Prediction. 1
- 117. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Protection Conservation, Preservation and Restoration Legislation Cleaning up the delta Cleaning up groundwater Treating unsafe water Restoring the aquatic environment Desalination 1 www.bauder.co.uk Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 117 / 132 Protection banner. 1
- 118. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Controlling the Weather Technological Innovation Making rain Making snow Suppressing hail Making clouds 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud seeding Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 118 / 132 Cloud seeding equipment on Cessna 210. 1
- 119. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Treaties and Agreements Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Signing of Indus Waters Treaty. Signatories were Field Marshal Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan and Shri Jawaharlal Nehru, Prime Minister of India on 19 September 1960 in Karachi. 1 1 http://pakistanpaedia.com/mega/megaprojects.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 119 / 132
- 120. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Treaties and Agreements Indus Waters Treaty 1960 22 page document 12 articles 8 annexures Eastern rivers Sutlej, Beas, Ravi Western Rivers Indus, Jhelum, Chenab Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 120 / 132
- 121. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Socio-Economic Governance Environmental Geo-political Treaties and Agreements India Bangladesh, 1996 30-year Ganges water-sharing arrangement India recognized Bangladesh’s rights as a lower-level riparian 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farakka Barrage Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 121 / 132 Farakka Barrage across Ganges River in West Bengal close to Bangladesh. 1
- 122. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements We’ve looked at some issues and solutions. Now, let’s analyze. 1 http://www.funnyandjokes.com/sharks-looking-foward-to-global-warming.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 122 / 132 Nice analysis! 1
- 123. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements A variety of socioeconomic, governance and environmental issues determine the dynamics of water and fluctuations in its demand and supply However, in general, demand for freshwater is increasing and its supply is decreasing Individuals and nations strive to secure their water resources, leading to conflict on small and large scales Several solutions are possible Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 123 / 132
- 124. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements 1 Pakistan needs to take measures to store its river waters, such as through building dams 2 Pakistan needs to invest in technological innovation to increase freshwater supplies from groundwater, seawater and rainwater and monitoring quantities 3 Pakistan needs to engage its provinces as well as its neighbors in negotiations to fairly solve outstanding water sharing issues 4 Pakistan needs to take care of its environment Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 124 / 132
- 125. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements The supply of water is constant on our planet. But for freshwater, there is evidence of decreasing as well as increasing demand, as well as evidence for decreasing and increasing supplies. However, in general, demand is increasing and supply is decreasing. Coupled with this is the variability introduced by climate change. The desire to control water has intensified amid this uncertainty and is manifested in water related conflicts around the globe. Pakistan must make efforts to secure its freshwater supplies from rivers, groundwater, sea-water and rain water. To ensure sustainability in these supplies, Pakistan must look after its environment. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 125 / 132
- 126. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements Bibliography I Books Briscoe, John and Usman Qamar (2006). Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry. Oxford University Press Karachi. Gleick, Peter H et al. (2014). The World’s Water : The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources. Vol. 8. Island Press. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 126 / 132
- 127. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements Bibliography I Websites Agency, Central Intelligence (2014a). The World Fact Book, India. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/geos/in.html. – (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/geos/pk.html. Ahmad, Usman. The Inventory of Conflict & Environment (ICE), American University, Washington DC. url: http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/baglihar.htm. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 127 / 132
- 128. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements Bibliography II Websites Blue, Circle of (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, Foster Cooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy- think-tank-calls-for-water-bureau-in-washington/. Center, World Resources SIM (2010). Asian River Basins. url: http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/asian-river-basins. Climate Data Processing Center (CDPC), Pakistan Meteorological Department. Pakistan Mean Rainfall, 1971-2000. url: http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/Pakistan_mean_rainfall.pdf. GreenFacts (2005). Water Availability Information for Pakistan. url: http://www.greenfacts.org/en/water- resources/figtableboxes/aquastat133.htm. Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
- 129. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements Bibliography III Websites GRID-Arendal. Main Worlds River Basins. url: http: //www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3226.aspx. Institute, Pacific. Water Conflict Chronology Map. url: http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/. National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/ encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2010). Total Renewable Water Resources per Capita by Country. url: http://chartsbin.com/view/1470. US Geological Survey, Water Science School. Earth’s Water: Groundwater. url: http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgw.html. Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
- 130. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements Bibliography IV Websites US Geological Survey, Water Science School. How Do Hydrologists Locate Groundwater? url: http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwhowtofind.html. Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2002). Tarbela Dam. url: http: //www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/pgeneration-dam-tarbela.html. – (2010). Mangla Dam. url: http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-dams-mangla.html. World Bank, United States Census Bureau. url: http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms.html. Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
- 131. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Analysis Recommendations Conclusion Bibliography and Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Sponsor DS for guidance Members for encouragement and help Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 131 / 132
- 132. Questions The pond is now open, so please float your questions. 1 1 http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/07/28/3-questions-you-need-ask-about-business-risk-assessment Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 132 / 132
- 133. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Definitions Hydrology Hydrology has evolved as a science in response to the need to understand the complex water system of the earth and help solve water problems1 1 http://water.usgs.gov/edu/hydrology.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 1 / 34Extra slides
- 134. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Definitions Hydraulic civilization According to the theories of the German-American historian Karl A. Wittfogel, any culture having an agricultural system that is dependent upon large-scale government-managed waterwork - productive (for irrigation) and protective (for flood control). Wittfogel advanced the term in his book Oriental Despotism (1957). He believed that such civilizations - although neither all in the Orient nor characteristic of all Oriental societies - were quite different from those of the West.1 1 http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/278180/hydraulic-civilization Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 2 / 34Extra slides
- 135. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Process How Do Hydrologists Locate Groundwater?1 Rocks are the most valuable key of all Existing wells provide clues Conditions for large quantities of shallow groundwater are more favorable under valleys than under hills In some regions–in parts of the arid Southwest, for example–the presence of ”water-loving” plants, such as cottonwoods or willows, indicates groundwater at shallow to moderate depth Areas where water is at the surface as springs, seeps, swamps, or lakes reflect the presence of groundwater, although not necessarily in large quantities or of usable quality. 1 US Geological Survey, Water Science School. How Do Hydrologists Locate Groundwater? url: http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwhowtofind.html Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 3 / 34Extra slides
- 136. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Definitions Delta A river delta is a landform that forms at the mouth of a river, where the river flows into an ocean, sea, estuary, lake, or reservoir. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 4 / 34Extra slides
- 137. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Definitions Unconfined Aquifer An unconfined aquifer is covered by permeable rock and can receive water from the surface 1 National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 5 / 34Extra slides Figure : Unconfined Aquifer. 1
- 138. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Definitions Confined Aquifer A confined aquifer lies between two layers of less permeable rocks and is filled with water 1 National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 6 / 34Extra slides Figure : Confined Aquifer. 1
- 139. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Terminology Definitions Artesian Well An artesian well is a type of confined aquifer that flows upward to the Earth’s surface without the need for pumping 1 National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 7 / 34Extra slides Figure : Artesian Well. 1
- 140. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Pakistan Hindu Kush Himalayan Region Source of ten large Asian river systems (the Amu Darya, Indus, Tarim, Ganges,Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow 1 1 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) (2012). A Strategy and Results Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 3 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 8 / 34Extra slides
- 141. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Pakistan Hindu Kush Himalayan Region Provides water, ecosystem services, and the basis for livelihoods to a population of more than 210 million people The basins of these rivers supply water to more than 1.3 billion people 1 Figure : Area comparison of Pakistan with eastern United States. 1 1 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) (2012). A Strategy and Results Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 3 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 9 / 34Extra slides
- 142. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article I: Definitions River Tributary Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 10 / 34Extra slides
- 143. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article II: Provisions Regarding Eastern Rivers ”All the rivers of the Eastern Rivers shall be available for the unrestricted use of India” Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 11 / 34Extra slides
- 144. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article III: Provisions Regarding Western Rivers ”Pakistan shall receive for unrestricted use all those waters of the Western Rivers which India is under obligation to let flow under the provisions of paragraph (2) [Indus, Jhelum, Chenab].” Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 12 / 34Extra slides
- 145. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article IV: Provisions Regarding Eastern and Western Rivers ”Pakistan shall use its best endeavours to construct and bring into operation, with due regard to expedition and economy, that part of a system of works which will accomplish the replacement, from the Western Rivers and other sources, of water supplies for irrigation canals in Pakistan which, on 15th August 1947, were dependent on water supplies from the Eastern Rivers.” Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 13 / 34Extra slides
- 146. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article V: Financial Provisions Regarding Article IV, ”...India agrees to make a fixed contribution of Pounds Sterling 62.06 million towards the cost of these works...” Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 14 / 34Extra slides
- 147. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article VI: Exchange of Data ”The following data with respect to the flow in, and utilisation of the waters of, the Rivers shall be exchanged regularly between the Parties:- ...” Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 15 / 34Extra slides
- 148. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article VII: Future Co-operation ”... they declare their intention to cooperate ...” Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 16 / 34Extra slides
- 149. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article VIII: Permanent Indus Commission ”India and Pakistan shall each create a post of Commissioner for Indus Waters, and shall appoint to this post, as often as a vacancy occurs, a person who should ordinarily be a high-ranking engineer competent in the field of hydrology and water use.” Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 17 / 34Extra slides
- 150. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article IX: Settlement of Differences and Disputes ”... breach .... shall first be examined by the Commission, which will endeavor to resolve the question by agreement.” If not successful, a neutral expert Next, governments Next, a court of arbitration Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 18 / 34Extra slides
- 151. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article X: Emergency Provision If Pakistan cannot construct works by 31st March 1973, works referred to in Article IV (1), Pakistan will tell the Bank and the Bank will notify each party. After this, consultations to reach mutual agreement. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 19 / 34Extra slides
- 152. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article XI: General Provisions This Treaty does not mean that any party has waived off all rights outside this Treaty Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 20 / 34Extra slides
- 153. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article XII: Final Provisions Takes effect 1st April, 1960 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 21 / 34Extra slides
- 154. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Article XII: Final Provisions One of the main problems to emerge as a result of the 1960 Treaty was the geographic mismatch between rivers flowing in the west and irrigated lands in the east. Tarbela Dam, the worlds largest earth-filled dam, and several link canals were built to ensure supply of water to these lands. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 22 / 34Extra slides
- 155. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Pakistan vs Pakistan Inter-provincial Disputes Inter-provincial disputes, particularly between Punjab and Sindh, considerably pre-date the creation of Pakistan Pre-Partition attempts by Punjab to construct irrigation infrastructure on the Indus were opposed by Sindh In 1945 the British imposed a solution on the two provinces, which gave priority to Sindhs right to receive water from the Indus No further sharing arrangement was made upon Partition, so the British formula remained in force and was followed until 1970 Thereafter the federal government began allocating water on an ad hoc basis: its decisions favoured Punjab Shahid Ahmad (2013). Water Cooperation for Inter-provincial Trust Building and Sharing Benefits of ApportionedWater - Cause of Future Conflict? 23 / 34Extra slides
- 156. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Pakistan vs Pakistan Inter-provincial Disputes Disputes between the provinces continued because of the perceived pro-Punjab bias in allocations, and because of the impact of water infrastructure construction on the smaller provinces Numerous commissions were formed to resolve these issues but failed to reach agreement until 1991 Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 24 / 34Extra slides
- 157. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Breakthrough Inter-provincial Agreement In 1991 the four Chief Ministers agreed the Indus Water Apportionment Accord This allowed for a minimum flow of water into the sea, and shared the remainder between the four provinces In this way, the Accord allowed for the erratic flow of water in the Indus, and ensured that all provinces gained from surpluses or lost from shortages in supply Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 25 / 34Extra slides
- 158. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Breakthrough Inter-provincial Agreement The distribution of water agreed was as follows: Punjab: 55.94 MAF Sindh: 48.76 MAF NWFP: 5.78 MAF (+ 3.00 MAF for ungauged canals) Balochistan: 3.87 MAF Balance river supplies (including flood waters and future storage) were to be distributed as follows: Punjab: 37% Sindh: 37% NWFP: 14% Balochistan: 12% Total: 114.35 MAF (+ 3.00 MAF) Total: 100% Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 26 / 34Extra slides
- 159. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Proposed Revision Problems Again In May 1994 the Punjab government again proposed a revision of the ten-daily figures to base these on historical use An Inter-10Ministerial Committee allegedly reached consensus on this arrangement, but the decision was challenged in the courts which upheld the previous 1991 Accord arrangement In practice, however, the smaller provinces accuse Punjab of using its upstream position and control of water infrastructure to implement sharing on the basis of historic use. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 27 / 34Extra slides
- 160. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Implementation Issues Problems Again The formula for water distribution was based on ten-day average use, system-wise and seasonally adjusted (Kharif and Rabi) figures provided by the provinces The Council of Common Interests (CCI) met in September 1991, six months after the Accord was signed, to agree the ten-daily use figures Punjab had wanted the figures to be based on historic use between 1977-82, the period during which ad hoc allocations by the federal government had favoured the province This proposal was opposed by the smaller provinces, and rejected by the CCI Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 28 / 34Extra slides
- 161. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Implementation Issues Problems Again The formula for water distribution was based on ten-day average use, system-wise and seasonally adjusted (Kharif and Rabi) figures provided by the provinces In May 1994, the Punjab Government again proposed a revision of the ten-daily figures to base these on historical use The smaller provinces accuse Punjab of using its upstream position and control of water infrastructure to implement sharing on the basis of historic use Sindh in particular contends that it has received less water than its entitlement under the 1991 Accord Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 29 / 34Extra slides
- 162. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Implementation Issues Problems Again It says that the reduced flow is insufficient to meet minimum requirements for inflow to the sea; seawater now comes up to 100 km inland The result of this is increased salination of lower Sindh agricultural lands, with subsequent adverse effects on ecosystems, soil quality and deterioration in the quality and quantity of water supply to Karachi (both due to increased salinity and increased concentrations of pollutants) causing diseases and health problems for vast populations Another problem is the shrinking of the Indus basin mangrove forest, which is dependent on fresh water supplies Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 30 / 34Extra slides
- 163. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Implementation Issues Problems Again Once the sixth largest in the world, this has reduced in size by 38% between 1977 and 1990 The livelihood of thousands of people who depend on the mangrove forests is threatened In short, despite the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord, there are significant disputes between the provinces over the current distribution of water Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 31 / 34Extra slides
- 164. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Relationship to Kalabagh Dam Punjab vs Sindh The Water Accord of 1991 was entered into specifically for developing consensus on Kalabagh dam Why else would Punjab have agreed to a reduction in its own share in order to increase Sindhs share? Why else would Punjab have agreed to Wapda being replaced with IRSA? Why else would Punjab have agreed to engineers from the Sindh irrigation department being posted on major head works of Punjab? All these concessions become meaningless if Punjab was not to get the benefit of Kalabagh dam in return Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 32 / 34Extra slides
- 165. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Accord 1991 Necessity of dams Source of confusion On signing the Accord all the provinces had agreed to the necessity of more dams on all the rivers including on the Indus but the Sindh delegation had requested that Kalabagh dam not be mentioned by name in the final draft Therein lies all the confusion about the very purpose of the Water Accord. Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 33 / 34Extra slides
- 166. Introduction Issues Solutions Wrap-up Water - Cause of Future Conflict? 34 / 34Extra slides