R. Klingbeil, 2012: Challenges to Water Resources Management in the Middle East

Challenges to Water Resources
Management in the Middle East
AUT, Halat-Byblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil
17 Januar y 2012 Regional Advisor Environment & Water

Lebanon - ‫لبنان‬

1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 2

Lebanon - ‫لبنان‬

http://ilndation-elaof.blogspot.com/2009/11/how-to-make-bucket-margarita.html 2, 2009

Opening Quotes

• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water
catastrophe.”
• “Any delay in a serious response to the water
challenge corresponds to mass suicide.
The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab
doors, right now.”
Najib Saab, SG AFED, 12 June 2010


Iraq – Displacement due to Drought

IOM, July 2010

Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010

IOM, July 2010

Outline
• UN-ESCWA
A UN Regional Economic Commission
• Regional Water Overview:
The Many Dimensions of Water
– Water Availability and Demand
– Solutions to a Dilemma?
– Water and Food, Virtual Water, Food Imports
– Transboundary Water and Transboundary Aquifers
– Climate Change
• What remains to be said.
Hope?

UN ESCWA and the
Regional Dimension in the UN

ECE
1947

ESCWA
ECLAC 1973
1948

ECA ESCAP
1958 1947


UN ESCWA
• 14 Member Countries
• Bahrain
• Egypt
• Iraq
• Jordan
• Kuwait
• Lebanon
• Qatar
• Oman
• Palestine
• Saudi Arabia
• Sudan
• Syrian Arab
Republic
• United Arab
Emirates
• Yemen

Sustainable Development and Productivity

Productive
Energy Water
Sectors

§ Energy efficiency § Integrated water § Competitiveness
§ Access to modern resource and productivity of
energy services management SMEs
§ Renewable (IWRM) § Environmentally
energies § Management of sound technologies
§ Advanced/cleaner shared water § Sustainable
fossil fuels resources agriculture and
§ Rural electrification § Improved water rural development
§ Sustainable energy supply and § Trade and
use in transport sanitation environment

Cross-cutting issues:

§ Climate change adaptation and mitigation
§ Sustainable consumption and production
§ Green economy

01 February, 2012 www.escwa.un.org 10

Water - Challenges
• Status and Trends
• Availability vs. Use and Demand
• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable
• Population Growth and Agriculture
• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources
• Virtual Water
• Water Imports and Transfers
• Desalination
• Transboundary Water and Aquifers
• ... and Climate Change

Regional Water Overview

Water Availability and Demand


Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources
per Capita. by Region

FAO AQUASTST, WB 2007

Percent of Total Renewable Water
Resources Withdrawn, by Region

FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 2007

Rainfall Distribution in the Arab Region

ESCWA, 2009

Total Renewable Water per Person
in ESCWA Region

Water Stress

Water Scarcity

Extreme Water Scarcity

ESCWA, 2009

Total Actual Renewable Water
Resources per Capita in MENA

Water Stress

Water Scarcity

Extreme Water Scarcity

FAO AQUASTAT, WB 2007

Arab Countries’ Water Availability and Use

www.carboun.com, 2011

High Rate of Population Growth

ICBA, Barghouti, 2009

High Rate of Population Growth
in ESCWA Region

ESCWA, 2009

Renewable - Non-Renewable Groundwater

Renewable groundwater resources
Non-renewable groundwater
Non ground water resources

ESCWA, 2009


Solutions to a Dilemma?


Solutions? – Water Imports and Transfers

• Read Sea - Dead Sea Canal

WB, Lintner, 2009


• Dead Sea: Water Level Changes

WB, Lintner, 2009


• Dead Sea: Sink Holes, Water Level Drop



• Red - Dead Sea Canal: The Concept


Solutions? - Desalination

ESCWA, 2009

Desalination for West Bank?

Zeitoun 2010


Water and Food, Virtual Water,
Food Imports


Water and Food
Food Security

• Food security vs. food self-sufficiency.
• Food security vs. internal agricultural production.
• Food security and nonrenewable groundwater
resources.
• A recent World Bank study on water
economics in the Middle East and North
Africa estimates that groundwater resources
depletion has substantially reduced GDP in
some countries, by 2.1% in Jordan, 1.5% in
Yemen, 1.3% in Egypt, and 1.2% in Tunis.
• Food security and virtual water - implications for:
• Trade
• Rural development, including women & youth
• Foreign revenue reserves
• Sustainability

Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia


Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia

FAO AQUASTAT, 2008


Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per
Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)


Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal
aquifers (WaterWatch, 2006)

Sustainability and
Non-Renewable Groundwater
• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits
• No clear “Exit Strategy”,
no replacement for non-renewable water resource
we are here, but
where are we
going next?

after
Al Zubari, 2010

Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP


Perverse Incentives for Excess Irrigation

WB, 2007

Sources of Water and Use


Alternative Future Water Policy Options
Essentially 3 future policy options available:
• Population Policy change –
high political risk, long term impact, adopted
economic development model
• Agricultural Policy change –
medium political risk, medium term impact
• Water Policy change –
lower political risk, short term impact
• Combination of two or three of the above


Three Levels of Scarcity

WB, 2007


Transboundary Water and
Transboundary Aquifers


TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide

• MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers,
BUT large volumes of transboundary groundwater
• Concepts for Transboundary River Basins do not
necessarily fit to the needs in MENA


What is a Transboundary Aquifer ?

UNESCO / ISARM,
2001


TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East


TB Water Cooperation – Principles
1. Equitable and Reasonable Utilisation
2. Obligation not to Cause Significant Harm
3. General Obligation to Cooperate
§ Regular Exchange of Data and Information
§ Bilateral and Regional Agreements & Arrangements
4. Environmental Protection
§ Protection and Preservation of Ecosystems
§ Prevention, Reduction and Control of Pollution
5. Monitoring and Management

Limited Sovereignty of Riparian / Aquifer States


Jordan River Basin
• 4 / 5 riparians Y
officially support the LEBANON

1997 UN Watercourse
Y
SYRIA

Convention
JORDAN
N RIVER
Y
BASIN
Y JORDAN
PALESTINE

Zeitoun 2010

Israel, Jordan and Palestine


Lebanon


Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs

Klein, 1998


Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)

Libanon
Dan (250 Mio m³/a)

Banias (125 Mio m³/a)

Israel Golan
Jordan


• Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River


• Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River



Klein,1998

Lake Tiberias


Lake Tiberias discharge –
“Spring” of the Lower Jordan River

Zeitoun. 2010

The Mouth of the River Jordan -
at the Dead Sea

… in 2008:
1.20 m wide

Jordan River Basin

Moelle. 2000 ?

Jordan Basin / Mediterranean: Groundwater

Basin Recharge Abstractions
Coastal Aq 476 544
WAB 409 377
W.Galilee 171 123
Carmel 60 48
EAB,NEAB 386 330
Negev,
Aravah 32 94
Tiberias 507 454

Σ 2041 1970
Messerschmid, 2009

Eastern Mountain Aquifer

• Ein Samia, well field • Spring Fazael, close to
for Ramallah water Jordan valley
supply


Israel - Palestine: The Mountain Aquifers

• Geological Cross Section from West to East

FAO. 2009


Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine
Historical Use: Surface and Groundwater

Zeitoun, Messerschmid, Attili, 2009

Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine
Groundwater Development Costs

MacDonald et al., 2009

Israel-Palestine:
Western Aquifer - Boreholes

SUSMAQ, 2004

Gaza as Part of TB Coastal Aquifer

Messerschmid 2009

Gaza as Part of TB Coastal Aquifer
• Chloride concentrations in public drinking water wells

Messerschmid 2009

Gaza - End of Humanity?
• What is the World waiting for?
• Gaza cannot be self-supplied
with water
… just like Manhattan
• Desalination does not solve
the main problems of the
humanitarian and
environmental crisis
• Blockade is the greatest
environmental hazard
• Do we have to wait for
Cholera?
Messerschmid 2009

Perspectives
• No resolution of the water conflict without
reallocation of freshwater
• No viable Palestinian State without sufficient
water.
• Negotiated agreement must be based on
equitable reallocation of shared water resources.
• Equitable distribution with Palestinians without
harm to Israel is possible.
• Water can be used as a vehicle for peace, but is
a source of further conflict.
Zeitoun 2010

Perspectives

Friends of the Earth Middle East


Climate Change and Water
in the Region
Understanding Impacts
Making Adaptation Work


Potential Impacts
• Coupled with excessive population growth and rising
living standards,
climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions
across the Arab world.

• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation coupled
with rising temperatures will reduce water availability.

• Higher temperatures will influence water quality and may
cause additional sanitation problems


Potential Impacts
• Changes in water availability
– Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity
– Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses
• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions
– Sewage systems, storm runoff
• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk
of closure of plant intake
– Improve intake procedures
– Increase storage and transfer capacity
• Infrastructure failures
– Higher flooding intensities, frequencies
– Higher temperatures,
• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures
– Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.
• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges
– Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes
– Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning
of alternatives, before springs cease
• Seawater level rise
– Increasing groundwater salinisation

Change in Precipitation
Hue shows change in mm/y.
Saturation / intensity shows the
change as percentage of 2005
PPTN.

Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.

Change in Length of Dry Season

Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.

Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070

Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region

Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region

Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region

Water – Key Development Issues

Facilitating Food Crisis
Economic Growth

Governance & Finance
Water Resources Management
Livable
Water Supply Climate
Cities
Growth

and Change
Human Development

Water Conflicts

Decentralization
Sanitation
Peak Water
Water Security
Local human services
Urbanization Irrigation Energy and
and Rural Development Hydropower
Poverty Impact Challenges

Water, Climate and Environment
Transboundary Water Financial
Crisis WB, Saghir, 2010

Main Messages
• Water is everybody’s business.
• Goal of many countries:
National water strategy for water security,
enough water for all demands.
• Countries in the region are largely unable to sustain their
water needs only from within their national boundaries.
• All countries are already net water importers through
food imports – virtual water.
• Largest water consumer is agriculture, although rarely
economically viable nor socially necessary.


Main Messages
• Urgent need to change water, agriculture and population
policies with regard to water consumption and protection.
• Surface and groundwater is often transboundary, i.e.
(needs to be) shared between neighbouring countries.
• Effective und sustainable management of transboundary
water needs willingness to cooperate for a more
equitable sharing of the benefits from the common
resource.
• Without cooperation, without innovative integration of
economic tools, social justice and environmental
sustainable approaches, without regional and bilateral
agreements on water, the region may actually slowly
move towards a mass suicide.

R. Klingbeil, 2012: Challenges to Water Resources Management in the Middle East

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R. Klingbeil, 2012: Challenges to Water Resources Management in the Middle East