The document summarizes the ideas of several influential population thinkers: 1) Thomas Malthus believed that population would grow exponentially while food production increased arithmetically, leading to periodic famines that halted population growth. 2) Paul Ehrlich warned that overpopulation would cause hundreds of millions to starve due to environmental damage from population explosion. 3) The Club of Rome predicted that increased pollution and decreased resources would lead to population collapse in the mid-21st century based on computer simulations.

1. Influential Population Thinkers and Their Ideas

2. Thomas Malthus Anglican priest An Essay on the Principle of Population Exponential population growth (1,2,4,8) would outpace food supply, which grows arithmetically (1,2,3,4). Population growth is halted by hunger and rising death rates among the poorer classes.

3. Paul Ehrlich US ecologist-- The Population Bomb (1968) The population explosion threatens the environment. Overpopulation will cause hundreds of millions to starve to death. A “neo-Malthusian”

4. Club of Rome German “think tank”--used computer simulations to make predictions. The Limits to Growth (1972 book) Increased pollution and decreased resources will lead to a collapse of population in the mid-21st Century.

5. The Limits to Growth

6. Frances Moore Lappe Social activist--author of Diet for a Small Planet. Focus on socio-economic factors that lead people to have larger families. Socio-economic advances lead to reduced population growth rates--a “demographic transition.”

7. Ester Boserup A “cornucopian.” Population growth drives technological advances. In turn these advances raise food production and improve economic development.

8. Julian Simon Conservative economist. Population growth can lead to increased productivity--more people to think, work, and support economic growth. People are the ultimate resource.

9. More on Malthus… …could not have foreseen the agricultural, industrial and technological advances that made it possible for population growth to slow and stabilize. …was looking at a small, closed system--today’s world is not so simple. …did not take migration into account.

10. Hard-line neo-Malthusians… … still have a doom-and-gloom view of the world. … advocate drastic and coercive means to control population … lifeboat ethics--“ The drowning poor and the weak should be allowed to die for the sake of the survival of the planet and the survival of the fittest.” … reduction or rationing of food and development aid to poor countries and tighter immigration laws.